I agree with this. Every post h_a has in this game so far has reeked of scum.
VOTE: heuristically_alone
In post 12, Robert2424 wrote:I'm here, just barely. I'd vote for Jake, cause I don't trust him, but I'm leaving town in a few hours.....
In post 29, iraonavp wrote:
More vague could be just saying that he's voting for "reasons", so that isn't true.
In post 13, Jaack wrote:
This feels a bit jumpy -"vague"/weak is ok, it's early Day 1/RVS. Choosing to vote/not vote with your opening post ismeh(non-alignment indicative).
VOTE: Jaack
In post 67, Zachstralkita wrote:@Jaack It's really early. I'll speak on Dunn later, but I'll say if you start townreading him so easily then I am amused. Hahahahahahahah. I do like how Tyler is approaching things, though.
In post 71, toolenduso wrote:In post 66, Jaack wrote:@tool - thoughts on xyzzy?
Pretty neutral. The posts people have been talking about do not look all that insidious to me -- this early in the game you have to weigh the possibility that people are looking for a mislynch against the possibility that people are trying to get the game going.
In post 71, toolenduso wrote:I have a question for you, actually -- have your thoughts on Robert changed?
In post 80, Keyser Söze wrote:
OK - I can understand your reasoning about scum being over-cautious or self-conscience in early D1 play, but I am not seeing that fear/over-concern in Robert2424's opening post. I saw it as a RVS reply to Jake from State Farm's RVS vote.
"offering an opinion without justification or commitment"? - I have never seen this on Page 1 of a game.
In post 118, Tyler the Creator wrote:alright, what about that post gave you the impression that robert was legit trying to convey suspicion of jake?
In post 130, Dunnstral wrote:In post 127, Jaack wrote:
and unless Zach gives non-gut reasons for thinking dunn is scum, I'm still inclined to think he's town.
Why would you say this? What if he was going to give non0gut reasons and now he doesn't?
In post 132, Dunnstral wrote:Why would you openly explain to him what to say to get "town read" or is this some kind of test or what? Let him think for himself no matter how muddled those thoughts may be
In post 148, Dunnstral wrote:@jaack I'm not being cryptic
In post 135, Dunnstral wrote:In post 66, Jaack wrote:
@zach - top scum read? If it's Dunn then give me your top town read instead.
Remember when I said this looked out of place?
In post 152, Dunnstral wrote:In post 150, Jaack wrote:In post 148, Dunnstral wrote:@jaack I'm not being cryptic
This is primarily what I'm talking about
And this is what I'm talking about: yet again you're trying to steer the conversation into talking about nothing? I'm not being cryptic about anything, I was just pointing what you said out to reiterate that it actually was something weird and now you're hounding me over it
Jaack wrote:In post 148, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 135, Dunnstral wrote:In post 66, Jaack wrote:
@zach - top scum read? If it's Dunn then give me your top town read instead.
Remember when I said this looked out of place?
I don't know what you're seeing there that you don't like.
Why are you ignoring Zach? I thought you townread me, or did that go away once I pushed on you? Once again why are you ignoring Zach?
In post 159, Zachstralkita wrote:There's not much to say at this point, you lynch him, he flips scum, yay, you lynch him, he flips town, you lynch me.
More likely: You lynch me, I die, no one does anything about Dunnstral following this.
In post 186, Dunnstral wrote:I'm less inclined to believe that jaack is mafia and would rather get bin
In post 225, toolenduso wrote:Does knowing that I'm not on the wagon change the way you feel about the Bins wagon at all?
In post 225, toolenduso wrote:'twas coincidence, not cause.
(It wasn't that I was following other people, it was that I happened to think something was significant and I wasn't the only one to think that)
In post 258, iraonavp wrote:
That's poor logic, you will end up with fragile and distant reads if you think like this.
In post 273, toolenduso wrote:OK I tried looking back on the game I played with ira where he was scum, but pretty much decided it wouldn't be all that useful. Turns out he'd only just joined the site like a week or two before that game started. Also the circumstances were pretty different early on in that game -- we had a townie fakeclaiming jailkeeper by page four. Whereas we're 11 pages into this game and still haven't really run anybody up.
In post 359, Jake from State Farm wrote:
I'm actually not wrong about reads lists at all. Clearly you don't know enough about how to play mafia and the art of manipulation. Being able to manipulate town is the best way to win as scum and the more info the scum has, the more they are able to manipulate town.
In post 362, Jake from State Farm wrote:And if you still disagree with me that's cool. We'll agree to disagree
In post 419, Jake from State Farm wrote:
Looking over this.
First - His reads and your reads aren't that different. I mean sure there are some people he has scummy and you have as town and vice versa but it looks like a bunch of people you both sort of agree on. I am not sure why him having different reads than you makes him suspicious. Clearly not everyone is going to share your viewpoint so scum reading him for that is just plain stupid. here is what I put together comparing reads between the 2. The bolded names are where the reads are the same or pretty close to each other which makes me wonder if Jaack actually compared ha's reads to his own.
Spoiler:
In post 419, Jake from State Farm wrote:Second - I am not sure what about his post makes you think he knows you are town, but he did say he has you in his town pile so i don't see why you have such an issue with him looking at the people voting you for scum. Seems like you should be doing the same thing yourself (no idea if you actually did or not)
In post 419, Jake from State Farm wrote:Third - yes Kaiser made the same mistake as you did and it actually looks like you just stole Keyser's thought about him knowing you are town. There is absolutely nothing wrong with somebody thinking a player is town and questioning people on that wagon. Keyser calls it conf. bias but so what, people do it all the time and there isn't really anything suspicious about it. How either of you come to the conclusion that he somehow KNOWS you are town is beyond me.
In post 419, Jake from State Farm wrote:why didn't you ask him for them? Anyways as you mention he does give a read on ira previously (town). he also gave a read on Dunn (town), and also for keyser (while he doesn't actually come out and say town or scum, he basically adds on to Dunn's read of Keyser from post 82 where dunn says he thinks keyser is mafia. I believe he also thinks keyser is mafia because he provides reasons for why dunn has come to that conclusion.
In post 439, Jake from State Farm wrote:In post 438, Jaack wrote:Well it's probably goofy, but my instant reaction to noticing that he left of 3 players is that he accidentally forgot to include his scumbuddies.
In post 465, iraonavp wrote:
I don't like spoilers, so at least I can read it after I quote it.
I disagree with the idea of making a pool of players just because they voted someone, trying to predict the actions of scum-aligned players. But all that really matters is whether or not he believes what he is saying.
In post 563, Robert2424 wrote:
H_A, and Iraon was both on my scum list, but this development tends to make me believe they are both more townie. That probably sounds really strange, but hey, Zuffy decided to make me a weak townie so there it is. I thought my role was weird, but it makes more sense with those roles in the game. I'm in 80% sure both are town now and think the wagon should be dissolved. I could be wrong, and one or both are lying, but its unlikely.
In post 593, Bins wrote:I don't see the scum motivation behind Roberts claim unless he's trying to save H_A which is possible
In post 596, Robert2424 wrote:
Please explain how I'm confirmed scum. The jury still out on you too.
In post 603, Robert2424 wrote:
@jack. Then talk to zuffy. I don't like the modifier. So, Lynch me then if your so sure I'm lying. Cause at this point no matter if they are both town or 1 is lying. The protective roles are now outed. I'm just a townie who "refuses to be protected". If you think zuffy made a mistake, by all, tell zuffy then.
In post 629, Dunnstral wrote:In post 624, Bins wrote:I think at this point either they're both town or they're both scum.
I definitely still think it's possible for robert to be town and H_A to be mafia even pretty likely
I do understand why robert would out his role there - why are people starting to vote robert here? I personally believe he's town and that h_a is possible mafia regardless of what robert is
In post 634, toolenduso wrote:I mean, you make some salient points. But there are a couple of points not quite making it all the way through my head:
In post 632, Jaack wrote:Scenario 2 is just about as unlikely due to Robert's claim. His claim doesn't make much sense if he's the only scum: he was trying to stop a lynch on one of two prs in that scenario.
Wouldn't it only make sense for Robert to have been trying to stop HA's lynch, given the fact that Robert didn't claim untilafterira counterclaimed? Put another way, ira was not in danger -- so how could scumRobert's claim have been a means of getting scumIra out of the noose?
And if it is the case that Robert-ira doesn't make sense as a scum team, then doesn't that change your possible arrangements to {all three are town} or {Robert and HA are scum together; ira is town}?
In post 634, toolenduso wrote:In post 632, Jaack wrote:Ira or h_a being scum alone is maybe possible, but it wouldn't really make sense with Robert's role. Macho townie is a really strange role unless there are multiple protective options.
I don't believe I've ever played with a macho role and I don't really understand why it would make more sense to have a macho role with two protective town PRs than with one protective town PR.
In post 636, toolenduso wrote:In post 635, Jaack wrote:The Robert/ira scum team is definitely the least likely, which is why we should lynch HA first if robert flips scum. But if we assume that that is reality for a moment, then the second that HA flipped town (which he is in this scenario) ira would be basically confirmed scum. Robert would be preemptively protecting his scumbuddy I guess. It doesn't make that much sense but its probably the 3rd most likely case.
So you're arguing that we should lynch Robert first because ira/Robert is still possible, if unlikely?
In post 640, toolenduso wrote:
@Jaack: Idk...I mean, I get what you're saying. I think we disagree about the likelihood of a Robert/ira scum team. But I'm also a little afraid that if we don't lynch HA now, he gets off the hook.
In post 671, Robert2424 wrote:
Jack. If your going to mention me in your posts. Please use proper grammar. Out of all the people who suspect me, you make the least amount of sense. I literally reread some of your posts several times.
P.S. your %'s make 0 sense.
I explained this in the second paragraph, but here is the relevant quote from Robert that explains scum motivation:In post 714, Jake from State Farm wrote:What's the scum motivation for this? If scum is about to be lynched why would scum out themselves like that? They wouldn't.In post 712, Jaack wrote:Then Robert comes in with his lolclaim and we all wait around to figure stuff out before we lynch HA.
The fact nobody hopped on Robert doesn't mean anything either. Ha's lynch was a done deal the moment a cc happened. No scum would risk exposing themselves by hopping onto Robert
Emphasis AddedIn post 563, Robert2424 wrote: H_A, and Iraon was both on my scum list, but this development tends to make me believe they are both more townie. That probably sounds really strange, but hey, Zuffy decided to make me a weak townie so there it is. I thought my role was weird, but it makes more sense with those roles in the game.I'm in 80% sure both are town now and think the wagon should be dissolved. I could be wrong, and one or both are lying, but its unlikely.
Robert literally claimed in order to prevent the lynch of a player who is confirmed scum. How can you not see scum intent in that?In post 717, Jake from State Farm wrote:Dude you aren't using common sense right now and that bolded doesn't make him look scummy. Trust me I think his claim is weird but there's literally no reason for him to make it as scum. I thought he was scum also But when I apply logic and common sense I just don't see scum intent. We can just agree to disagree I guess.
I just did a site search for macho townie. This is the most recent appearance of such a role I can find: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=54&t=30753In post 762, toolenduso wrote:What are you basing this on? Did you research this?In post 712, Jaack wrote:The Macho modifier, while theoretically conceivable on an otherwise vanilla role, is virtually always seen on something with a night action, generally a powerful one, so as to balance it.
While I may not agree on the order, I do agree that this is where all of our scum is.