Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[shaft.ed]

vote carrotcake

for being original

[shaft.ed]

Okay.

1) Originality looks BAD! Contradiction,

eager to lynch

, LEAPS to defence. Almost worth a -2 vote.

2) If Originality is scum I'd be expecting a coach in there. But everyone looked clean.

3)

Vote: orginality

I just want to see what pops up scum should jump on him

So you add a fourth vote to someone that is eager to lynch. You may want to look at your own track record. This fourth vote comes on p.2 on your second post approximately 1hr after you have even begun to read the thread, and one post after you say

Hey the game started!
I'm here, I'll read the last 7 posts and post my random vote.

"Hey Mr. Kettle, you're black" said the pot.

FoS Oman

[shaft.ed]

Elais, highlight my post. You'll see there is some

size 1 white text at the end that clearly states I was only looking for scum to jump on.

Yes, i was taking the oppertunity, but not to lynch orginiality, but to see if I could catch the scum.

I unvoted when that didn't happen.

O that's right a scum would never try to provide evidence to protect themselves. Only a townie would do that.


@originality, have you played this game online before, and how long did games typically last at that site if you have?

[shaft.ed]

And Shaft.ed, you're right, scum do try to give evidence, but mostly scum give evidence after they've been caught out, to explain themselves. I stated my intentions at the time of the vote.

Yeah I know that, I'm basically just saying that putting little tiny white text saying this is a trap could be done by either side as it is premeditated. In my mind it has no bearing on the action itself. If I really wanted to get WIFOMy, I could reason that it was a scum signal for your "partners" not to bandwagon the vote to. But either way, I don't think the white text matters one way or another.

First off, Oman is my top suspect because of his highly opportunistic vote, and his OMGUS attack on Shaf.ted.

This is a very big stretch. I've not noticed a single OMGUS attack. He just pointed out his little white text and explained why he thought this exonerated him.

THe way you put originality at minus 2 on page 2 was suspect

Also he put originality at -3 not -2 he was the fourth vote on seven to lynch. Elias voted prior and miscounted saying his vote was actually the -3 when it was in fact the -4. Please do not misrepresent peoples votes.

All this adds up to a

FoS Lucienne

for taking Oman actions obviously out of context in order to build your case against him.


I need to read more before commenting further on other players. But I feel that orig just misplayed page one, and a bandwagon formed super fast. I personally think there's more information in the bandwagon than what set if off, but some of his defense seems a bit off. And just because someone seems to be a little green, doesn't mean they can't be scum.

Man this game has too many suspicious people.

[shaft.ed]

Looks like things are going to slow down a bit. With two players out till the weekend (hope everything goes OK for you guys btw), and Karen hasn't shown up yet.

mod did you have any luck with a replacement?

Anyway,

@spurgistan, yeah I noticed that weird spurgistan, shaft.ed comment but didn't know what it meant. Also didn't notice any OMGUS on you either, so no matter which way that goes it's unfounded.

I really didn't gain a whole lot from the bandwagoning of originality. Its always hard to tell how much weight to give votes on page 1. No mafia would realistically think they could move for a bandwagon that fast. And if they did, it would be very incriminating.

I do think if anyone was a townie setting a 'quicklynch' trap it was Elias since as soon as Oman got his vote on originality, Elias swtiches his vote to Oman, a more likely play than tiny white letters. Though the reasoning leaves a bit to be desired.

Oman in his last post clearly seemed to think that Originality got to -2...So why does he say that Originality is almost worth a -2 vote, yet does it anyways? Hmm. Not to mention his vote looks opportunistic. vote: Oman.

[shaft.ed]

No I'm saying you were more likely doing what Oman said he was doing. Adding a vote to originality to see if any scum would join in trying to bandwagon, or simply to pressue originality into talking.

I'm accusing you of being town.

[shaft.ed]

I agree that claiming town is not a strong scumtell. Personally I think it's a much stronger newbtell. But Dr. Black appears to have been active here for long enough to know better. Maybe he just hasn't played as mafia yet

FoS Dr. Black

I'm also 100% certain now that VampanezeHunter is lurking. He posts very heavily in the nongame forums but can't show up in game.

unvote vote VampanezeHunter

to draw him out of the woodwork.

I will remove if you manage to post something substantial.

Apologies for using this thread as English practice, but can someone tell me the correct spelling of "greateful"? It is one word I continually cannot spell in english.

Pretty sure its grateful. www.dictionary.com is your friend.

[shaft.ed]

unvote VampanezeHunter

[shaft.ed]

vote Vampaneze Hunter

[shaft.ed]

Wow. I think he's going for the so insanely erratic play so that you have no usable read on him strategy. He could be pro-town he could be anti who knows. He could be an asset he could be a liability no way to tell.

I was with you through this part.

Yeah, I thought it would be the sort of claim that had no merit, because everyone might do it.

I've seen this done many atime from newer players. It's very common for people to think that everyone's going to claim V. townie, what's the big deal.

-Doc "I claimed non-vinilla, which could be anything from scum to a townie who can't hammer" Blackstrike

And I don't think you can be anything in that range. You're playing in a mini-normal. A townie that can't hammer is

very

unlikely to exist in such a game.

major

FoS Dr. Blackstrike

I don't think I'm going to bother voting for you though, because I'd be amazed if the mafia don't NK you after this performance.


And Vampaneze how many times can one person post "I'm looking into it" with out actually doing anything?

[shaft.ed]

Some Random Thoughts

@VampenezeHunter: Yeah your right it seems that Oman may be trying to attack other people to get the heat off him.

I'm very surprised this mantra is getting repeated over and over again. This is completely reverse of reality. Oman ended up taking heat

because

he was attacking people.

FoS AlyG VampanezeHunter dybeck

for perpetuating this falsehood.

'Jumping on easy bandwagons to save your own ass' is scummy and that's what you're being accused of. FOS: Oman for misrepresentation.

Please point to example of jumping on easy bandwagon(

s

). We all remember originality, but where's the rest? Yes I know you clarified this later, but you're first quote clearly states that you are also accusing him of bandwagoning. Another

FoS dybeck

as long as FoS's are getting passed out for misrepresentation.

Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation. If he doesn't in the next weeks i'm fine with it though. Just give him a chance to explain first.

If it's that important to you why haven't you unvoted him?

Well, Im feeling rather pressured into voting for someone.

As I explained, VH is seeming the most suspicious here, so im going to tip the balance by vote VampanezeHunter.

WHy are you feeling pressured to vote, who brought this up in regards to you? And how convenient you chose the biggest bandwagon.

FoS originality

All toll I'm getting a bad feeling from dybeck.

unvote Vamp vote dybeck

[shaft.ed]

Oman: What do you say if I say that you and shaft.ed look like a pair?

-Doc "You haven't seem to considered that yet" Blackstrike

I know you didn't ask me, but I've been slightly defending Oman recently because a number of people are attacking him with false claims while he's got a bandwagon going. Such activities are most likely perpetrated by mafia, so I think it is likely at least one of said attackers is scum.

I'm still suspicious of him due to his first stating on p.2 that he was trying to fuel a bandwagon as a scum trap, but then avoiding such a play on VampanezeHunter on p.6 because he didn't want to lynch "so early." But with a minimum of six candidates for likely scum in this game, I cannot sit by and watch someone get bandwagoned over false claims. There are just too many valid reasons to go after people right now to be inventing them.

[shaft.ed]

Meanwhile

vote: Dr. Blackstrike

Seriously, what has he actually done through the game, except coast and say basically nothing?

I again invoke the pot and the kettle. "Hey Mr. Kettle, you're black" said the pot. Seriously you don't have a post over two lines long in this whole thread.

[shaft.ed]

On AlyG --- after a short read of posts

- Very aggressive against originality, he attacks "lets lynch the lurkers" over a series of posts. AlyG then attacks originality after listening to general reasoning, and changing his mind. Not really scummy, but it seems to be bloodthirsty. This worries me as it seems like bullying an easy target. Getting an easy lynch.


- "And originality, if you don't come up with a good defence i'll be voting for you which means you'll already at 4 votes. Not good. " - AlyG
"you shouldn't be so eager to put votes on people. He was already on 3 votes and getting to 4 on the 2nd page is going a bit to far. " -AlyG to Oman
You yourself threatened to cast the fourth vote, but you attack Oman for doing it instead of you. You seem to care too much about the placement of your own votes, as if you are avoiding something.
- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?
- " And Dr. Blackstrike who's role claiming is really destroying our chances of winning. " Is really destroying seems to be an exaggeration. Invoking hate against Blackstrike.


- You do not switch your votes around. You already know about being wishy washy, so you might be working to avoid vote switching. You do however call out plenty of suspects while seemingly relying on what other people to dig deeper. Planning to cause confusion? You do explain your reasons, but it hardly feels like your own.

- Hey wait a moment, I think im seeing the same post twice , oh well I have written quite a bit already so I might as well just post it

Vote: AlyG

for spreading confusion and hate

I have to intense studying to in to, this is my last long post for a while (even if the quality is quite low). I can still post small snippets though!

Nice analysis Carrotcake. I was a bit suspicious of AlyG as well. I'll have to ponder this for a bit.

plays with beard

[shaft.ed]

Meanwhile

vote: Dr. Blackstrike

Seriously, what has he actually done through the game, except coast and say basically nothing?

I again invoke the pot and the kettle. "Hey Mr. Kettle, you're black" said the pot. Seriously you don't have a post over two lines long in this whole thread.

Wrong.

Here's some examples of posts, not only more than 2 lines long, but where I am scum-hunting. My Post 1, 3, 4 and 9 are all examples.

Conversely, Dr. B has done no scum-hunting. That is scummy.

Dr. B has not been scum-hunting for the entire game. That is scummy.

Post #1

Sorry, just got online. I tried logging on on Sunday, but it failed to recognise my username or something. Anyhoo here I am.

I'll assume this isn't what you meant by post 1 so here's what I believe you inted to represent Post #1

Firstlt, carrotcake called me a boy.

How man boys called Lucienne do you know?

On more pressing matters, I`m not liking originiality for his lurker voting, and opinions that there are no strong reasons for voting. His opinions are entirely flawed here - voting on Day 1 can be strong and for good reasons, and similarly voting for lurkers is not a good strategy in this scenario. I disagree that not posting on confirming for around 2 days is inherent lurking.

That said, I`m not liking Oman`s vote here, as he basically adds nothing yet puts him to -2. Seems like some early scum bandwagoning to me.

Ok first two lines are talking about your gender. Then you have a grand total of four lines with two points. First point is attacking originality for his play in the random stage. And I'll give you point two as a valid argument against Oman.

Post #3

Whoopie, i cannot get my quotes to work.

First off, Oman is my top suspect because of his highly opportunistic vote, and his OMGUS attack on Shaf.ted.

vote: Oman

Also am pretty suspicious of Dr. Blackstrike, since the only things I have seen him do so far are vote or finger suspicion at originality and Oman, the two people who have been the biggest "suspicion getters" at this point.

FOS: Dr Blackstrike

One line saying you can't use quotes. Another line devoted to a false argument against Oman for OMGUS'ing me. And two lines for your current argument against the crazy Dr. We'll give you three lines of content with one being false information.

Post #4

Gah! spurgistan, shaf.ted. oops.

Nonetheless, I still think you are the scumiest. THe way you put originality at minus 2 on page 2 was suspect, and your recent claims that I am in cahoots with Dr B are fairly ludicrous and without any real evidence is suspect.

You're reaching here, I suggest that vote was just to get on the latest bandwagon.

Uh, no. Nice try.

You can quite clearly see my post 33, where I am the first person to notice and call suspicion on your vote. So no, joining the bandwagon is quite a fruitless accusation against me.

Line one is attempting to correct your false argument against Oman claiming he FoS'd me, saying you mixed up me and sprugistan. Only problem is he didn't OMGUS either of us. You then spend three lines attacking Oman with a justifiable argument (plus one line of quotation). So we'll give you four lines on that one with one being another false argument.

Post #9

Wow.

FoS:originality

I find it quite convenient that he felt "pressured" into voting for someone and, oh gosh, just happened to pick the person who had the most votes at the time.

He really was adding to the bandwagon, without actually explaining anything.

Die scum

Only seeing two lines of content here.

So I stand corrected you have two posts with four lines and one post with three. I'm not saying Dr. Black isn't crazy suspicious, and that you haven't pointed out another reason to think so. I'm just letting you know that your reasoning is applicable to other posters.

[shaft.ed]

So Dr hasn't posted exactly what his supposed powerrole is, correct?

rolefish much?

[shaft.ed]

At the moment I'm hoping to get out of nightkill because I'm a likely lynch. (The mafia doesn't want to kill lynch bait, right?)

Now the fact that I've said that means it won't work, right? Maybe yes and maybe no. We'll see.

Are you trying to get killed? Now that you've set up the "mafia will leave me as lynch bait excuse", you know that if you survive the night we're very likely to lynch you tommorow (assuming you don't get lynched today) because this screams of you setting up an excuse for surviving a NK.

*sighs* Looks like I need to re-read.

Maybe you can try commenting while you read this time.

And finally: I understand I look suspious. Heck, I'd probably vote me at this point. But you guys shouldn't, because if I'm a powerrole, I'd have to claim, and if I'm a townie, I'd have to lie. And that just ain't cool.

And you're again pseudoclaiming, threatening the town with a loss of a power role if you are killed. You know all of us playing

could

be a powerrole. You're freaking crazy. I still support the strategy of letting you survive day 1 and if you make it to day 2 you'll be my first, second and third candidate for a lynch.

"My evil plan is working"

I hope you're town if your plan is working.

[shaft.ed]

At the moment I'm hoping to get out of nightkill because I'm a likely lynch. (The mafia doesn't want to kill lynch bait, right?)

Now the fact that I've said that means it won't work, right? Maybe yes and maybe no. We'll see.

This is quite simply the scummiest thing I have ever read in all the time I've ever played mafia.

You're deliberately acting scummy so you don't get nightkilled? And now... when miraculously you don't get nightkilled, this is going to be your excuse for the rest of the game?

No way. No way in the world.

Told ya so Dr. B.

If he is in fact town we're screwed, because the mafia don't need to NK him after this performance he'll be lynched by tommorow at the latest if he survives the night. And he's so blatanly setting himself up as unNKable that us townies can't let him live even if he may have in fact been useful.

I still say we lynch him tommorow because if he's not mafia he's basically claimed a powerrole that might be useful this evening, but that's just MHO. Actually...even if he claims a powerrole tommorow after miraculously surviving the night, there's no way we can trust him on it.

FoS Dr. Blackstrike

, probably moving to a vote after I ponder the utility of powerroles that I don't trust. And thanks for the terrible play if you are in fact town.

[shaft.ed]

I agree with you Lucienne. We have no way to trust Dr. B. It seems a consensus that he needs to be lynched today or tommorow. I'm just trying to figure out what the benefit of keeping him around could be given that he has basically claimed (although not very truthfully) and that the scum won't go after him given that they can be almost positive he will be lynched by D2.

I think this is a dangerous topic for anyone to discuss as I think it will look hella scummy, but I think it needs to be said out in the open. Here are the likely possibilities for powerroles:

Cop: Can't trust him so this role would be useless unless he comes up cop after lynching. Best-case scenario = one investigation if he's kept until D2, compared to 0 after D1.

Doc: If kept until D2 1 in 11 chance that he will prevent a townie death given 1 NK, if a SK exists this will go up to about 1 in 5, compared to 0 in 11 or 0 in 5 without the Doc.

Vig: Townie driven NK from a demonstrable crazy guy. I would say this is probably the worst case scenario as his odds of hitting town are greater than hitting scum.

Roleblocker: 1 in 11 chance to block a mafia NK, also 1 in 11 chance to block SK if we have one. Counter that with 1 in 11 chance to block Cop investigation and 1 in 11 chance to block Doc protection (though his chances of actually hitting a useful target combined with the Roleblockers chances make this fairly moot). This is basically similar to having a Doc for a day, but with the drawback of possible cop-blocking.


I'm still on the fence with this one and agree pretty heartily with Carrotcake that our suspect list is nearly 12 players long at this point. Still not sure what to do about Dr. B

[shaft.ed]

Your both wrong

He's not even that seriously suspicious

You've got to be kidding me. He's said that he's playing very scummy so that the mafia won't NK him. How can you get more serious than this? It basically excuses his previous scummy behavior and gives a reason for not getting NK'd.

Then he says no matter what happens he's claiming a powerrole even if he has to lie. So we know if he claims it won't be vanilla townie, and if he claims a powerrole there's a good chance he's lying. Basically what dybeck seems to be after is salvaging what he can from a possible townie that looks incredibly likely to be lynched that has claimed a powerrole. While I don't agree completely with this tactic I can understand a town making it. On the other hand, I imagine scum are just as confused with Dr. B as we are. They might want to rolefish a bit more before they target him at night.

No, I don't buy that. Info helps town, no matter what.

You know this is not true. I'm really amazed that you are espousing such fundamentally flawed tactics. Not surprising after your legally disclaimered scum trap.

[shaft.ed]

ryan, welcome to the game, nice to see someone join who is likely to be a good and consistant contributor.

Vote: originality

I still haven't figured out why the early bandwagon on him was allowed to die, I think he's a suitable place for some more pressure as his defense didn't really sit well with me.

I don't think the early bandwagon was justified IMHO. His reasoning was a little odd for p.1, but at the time I really thought this could be explained by non-familiarity with the pace of games on this board (ie much slower than others). But his play has alerted me fairly consistantly over the course of the game, it's just been drowned out by Dr. B's antics and the 4 or more other contenders for scum we've had. If I get time today I'll get in a reread focusing on originality among other candidates.

I have to add I'm a bit discomfitted by two posters in a row stating "let's lynch originality today and string up Dr. B tommorow". Sounds a bit like a scum two-fer to me.

[shaft.ed]

the mafia is going to nightkill him now anyway (if he's being honest) and if he's lying and lives we'll take care of him Day 2.

Just a more elegant way of hiding it.

[shaft.ed]

I am of the "lynch all liars" way of mafia. If he's lying about his role than he deserves to be taken out on Day 2. If he's being honest I don't anticipate him making it through Night 1 (the scum will see to that) Don't try and twist my words to make my statement a scummy one

I'll admit my bad on this one. I've read back over your and my posts and I am doing some word twisting here. I hate people that do that. I'm still not clearing AlyG though its possible he's setting up a two-fer.

[shaft.ed]

ryan, could you make a quick comment on your predecessor's play. I realize there wasn't much of any detail but here's one of his more substantial posts from p.6

Ok I've just read through and I'm finding Oman most suspicious here. This is because he is pretty much defending himself with an attack. That is scummy IMO. Also Orginallity is probably second on my list because at the start he was all over the place. Making scummy moves. Those were contradicting himself, keen to lynch and also he seemed to look quite aggressive. That's not a scum tell but it kind of makes me suspicious. I don't know why. One more thing. Did anyone actually see what the size one writing said? Anyway that seemed scummy for me. Ok I'm done. If that's not enough tell me. Also do I need to roleclaim yet?

And I've read back over the thread again. Not seeing anything substantial in originality's early play this time either. To me his biggest issue was when he posted that he felt pressured into voting for VH. This itself is odd, but what is weird to me is that VH was under attack, had a bandwagon forming, and was contributing hardly anything to the thread. Since the lynching lurker's points had already been made, I'm kind of uneasy about why he'd make the same choice for a vote. Especially one of more weight than his p.1 vote had.

[shaft.ed]

Are you freaking retarded? You had at most 4 votes on yourself, one of which is the threads accepted crazy guy, and now your getting yourself modkilled?

Thanks for helping so much.

[shaft.ed]

Are you freaking retarded? You had at most 4 votes on yourself, one of which is the threads accepted crazy guy, and now your getting yourself modkilled?

Thanks for helping so much.

No problem at all

No reason to put up a defense against craplogic.

Feel free to look very closely at the idiots who put their best foot forward though. Good luck town, you'll need it.

No reason to kill yourself over craplogic either. You may think you've outed scum, but generally the beginings of the bandwagon are primarily townies. Thus, we're not likely getting any useful information out of you suicide "I told you so" tantrum. You were effectively arguing with

3

people in the town and decided to kill yourself becuase they wouldn't play nice nice, when you were the one that started with the hostile tone.

This is just freaking ridiculous.

Anyway, I don't know how modkills work very well. Does this mean that a lynch has not happened, and the only consequence on today's activities is that only 6 votes are now needed to lynch or does the modkill substitute for a lynch in which case it is now twilight and we shan't be posting?

[shaft.ed]

Wait I got a great idea. originality can kill himself too to prove to you that he's a townie and your stupid pissing match will be over and the town can be down two players. [/sarcasm]

This is a team game. You don't win when you were 'right' on one single point. You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

Please remove your head from your ass before you kill yourself

.

There fixed that for you.

[shaft.ed]

Wow this is great, first we get a shortened D1, now it looks like there's probably a SK in the game.

Probably won't get time for a decent post today, and I'm LA over the weekends. I should get something meaningful up by Monday at the latest.

btw I believe it's spelled vollkan

[shaft.ed]

Well AlyG, Carrotcake was most adamant in going after you. I'm surprised you wouldn't remember that.

FoS AlyG

On AlyG --- after a short read of posts

- Very aggressive against originality, he attacks "lets lynch the lurkers" over a series of posts. AlyG then attacks originality after listening to general reasoning, and changing his mind. Not really scummy, but it seems to be bloodthirsty. This worries me as it seems like bullying an easy target. Getting an easy lynch.


- "And originality, if you don't come up with a good defence i'll be voting for you which means you'll already at 4 votes. Not good. " - AlyG
"you shouldn't be so eager to put votes on people. He was already on 3 votes and getting to 4 on the 2nd page is going a bit to far. " -AlyG to Oman
You yourself threatened to cast the fourth vote, but you attack Oman for doing it instead of you. You seem to care too much about the placement of your own votes, as if you are avoiding something.
- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?
- " And Dr. Blackstrike who's role claiming is really destroying our chances of winning. " Is really destroying seems to be an exaggeration. Invoking hate against Blackstrike.


- You do not switch your votes around. You already know about being wishy washy, so you might be working to avoid vote switching. You do however call out plenty of suspects while seemingly relying on what other people to dig deeper. Planning to cause confusion? You do explain your reasons, but it hardly feels like your own.

- Hey wait a moment, I think im seeing the same post twice , oh well I have written quite a bit already so I might as well just post it

Vote: AlyG

for spreading confusion and hate

I have to intense studying to in to, this is my last long post for a while (even if the quality is quite low). I can still post small snippets though!

[shaft.ed]

Oh Snap...Blackstrike wasn't NKed, we ate up his claim, he hasn't helped us at all and now i believe his claim was a lie. He is probably scum.

FOS: Dr. Blackstrike

I've got to re-read the thread now to try and get an understanding of who may have wanted the NK Carrotcake or Spurgistan.

I also like the way you are priming everyone for the "LOOK EVERYONE DR. B'S STILL ALIVE!!" I'm not saying I believe Dr. Blackstrike, I'm just saying if he is town, that's exactly what scum would want to start the day with.

[shaft.ed]

So you FOS'd me because you think that the person most likely to kill Carrot Cake was me because she had suspicion of me? If i was mafia which i'm not, why of all people to kill would i pick CarrotCake? the only person who had suspicions of me, wouldn't that look to obvious?

I FoS'd you because you were saying "Oh golly Gee, I wonder who CarrotCake was connected to?" You were the only person she ever had strong opinions on. If you didn't say anything I wouldn't have bothered connecting her death to you because of the endless WIFOM that goes on in such a situation. But your quick post wondering what may have happened to her, when you should remember those who vote for you, raised my eyebrows.

[shaft.ed]

Welcome to the game vollkan. Nice to have you in another of my mini's. Saves typing since I can post

I agree with vollkan

more often than not.

Anyway, pretty good analysis of the game thus far. Two major things discomfitted me however.

1) While I agree that AlyG's play was a bit questionable in the first day, you paint it as glaringly scummy. A lot of this analysis is based on AlyG attacking obviously newbish plays, but you fail to take into account that AlyG is in fact also new to the site. It seems that some of his heartened attacks could also be made from a new players perspective. For this reason, I am definitely suspicious of AlyG, but the way you paint him as obvo-scum is a bit over the top.

2) You hardly even mention Dr. Blackstrike's play at all. I also meta'd him and think I understand what he's doing to some extent, but for god's sake he basically said "I'm acting like scum, therefore I won't be NK'd like scum because the scum are setting me up not because I am scum." This deserves and FoS no matter what you meta'd on him.

Combining these points with the fact that we got absolutely no read on your predecesor D1 and I am a tiny bit suspicious of you.

mFoS vollkan

@AlyG, I don't have time to go over everything PBP right now. But as others have pointed out your defense is a bit lacking. I'll try to get back with specifics so my argument amounts to more than "you're just scummy."

@Dr. Blackstrike, I would very much like to hear from you.

@dybeck

Wow this is great, first we get a shortened D1, now it looks like there's probably a SK in the game.

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

vote: shaft.ed

?Que pasa?

@Lucienne

Wow this is great, first we get a shortened D1, now it looks like there's probably a SK in the game.

I'm puzzled that this was your first reaction.

It's my first reaction because I was already upset that Retarded Ryan basically pissed away D1 for us. Then the new day begins with the added bonus of having two killing roles, which makes the game much more difficult for the town.

@Oman

Sigh, this is not going to look good after vollkan got into me for defending but:

Vote AlyG

That post sat all wrong with me. It was basically saying "look, doctor blackstrike is still alive, lets lynch him" when there are many possibilities:

1) He could be scum lieing to us (Possible)

2) He could be a doc, protecting the wrong person (Possible)

3) He could have forgotten to send in a night choice (unlikely)

4) He could have been RBed (unlikely, though possible)

5) He could be any other role like a cop/hider/tracker that we don't see the results of (possible (likely))

6) The scum didn't kill him in the hope that some would say what you did, or to say it themselves (likely)

So there are 6 options, and you only looked at one.

You're right it doesn't look good. This entire game you've been jumping from one wagon to the next. Now you see vollkan enter the game and provide a strong case against AlyG and the first thing you do is jump aboard.

FoS Oman

[shaft.ed]

Seems someone put the breaks on this game. We've got to perform really well today if we want to take out scum. I'd estimate we've got 6 town, a SK and 2 mafia. That means we're going to need to get 5 out of 6 votes in the right place today. With a likely 1 in 3 chance of hitting anti-town players with our lynch. Guess the good news is we've still got our powerroles.

Right now I'd place AlyG and Oman at the top of my suspect list.

AlyG for reasons outlined above and Oman for his seeming opportunism.

I'd still like to hear from Dr.B about his "plan"

And I'd like to know what dybeck was talking about when he said I must be the SK?


I guess I don't have much to add, just trying to jumpstart conversation.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah shaft.ed, I'm so glad that my entire scumplan was to vote for AlyG after I planned that he make a horrible post and then stay there. My oppertunistic scumplan is gettin him under serious pressure.

:eye roll:

My apologies. I just did a reread of Oman's posts and he is absolutely right. I thought originalty he was town and my reread reinforcd that.

I've got to say my AlyG impression is looking worse after this last reread.

Waiting to here from some of the other players in this game. Particuarly Dr. BS. Care to give more thought behind your L-3 vote on ryan yesterday outside of him being an ass?

[shaft.ed]

The first person to mention a role after it's been revealed, or done good work, is very frequently it. And that's a real tell that you can take to the bank.

I 100% agree that this is usually a good tell, but I personally feel that it applies more towards pro-town powerroles than other game roles as SK's are generally trying to blend in. I also don't agree that said tell, in and of itself, is engouh to promote a lynch.

Do you know what else are good tells? Conflating an argument against someone based on very little evidence and projecting anti-town roles onto a person when there is incredibly little evidence. We have examples of both right here:

Seriously though, if we lynch shaft.ed today, we are left with 7 alive tomorrow, and it's highly likely that 3 of them are mafia.

Nice projection there. Interchanging Serial Killer with shaft.ed. And per above it seems very anti-town to lynch someone over a single tell.

Okay, but the role was not revealed. A KILLING ROLE was revealed, which means it could be (looking at the likely ones) a protown vig or an SK. Now, my comment was if he was involved in any way 10 to 1 he's say it was a protown vig.

Acutally dybeck's point is that since I said SK, I not only revealed that I must be the SK, but that the killing role must also be an SK. However, by this logic, it also would be to my benefit to have said "You suck vig" because then I'm outing myself as the killing role and also letting everyone know that I'm the vig. as you stated previously.

Also, by your logic. Congradulations all pro-town memebers for not being NKed. I am now a confirmed Pro-town character due to my congradulating that role.

Actually I said that first:

Guess the good news is we've still got our powerroles.

So I suppose I'm not only the SK but also all of the pro-town powerroles.

Does any of this make sense? I am honestly just trying to act in the best interests of the town. I know it's counterintuitive to leave an SK alive, but it's a numbers game, and it makes sense to do it here.

No this makes absolutely no sense. While SK can kill mafia at night, odds are that he's going to hit a townie. It's very simple, you don't leave anti-town killing roles alive.

I love the fact that you'd vote someone for being pro-SK though. Like they could be in a scum group with him

Actually I have a feeling the SK would be pro-SK.


So we have dybeck conflating arguments, projecting anti-town roles, advocating for leavig the SK alive and

being admittedly pro-SK

.

I think my vote from yesterday is going right back where it was.

vote: dybeck

[shaft.ed]

Wow lots of developments over the evening. I'll start with a minor point towards dybeck:

Shaft.ed, I think you're the only person ever to get so defensive over somebody trying to persuade the town that

you

should not be lynched.

First of all I was not being defensive, I was being offensive in pointing out the errors and mistakes of your post. And once again there you go with the projection. You argued the SK should not be lynched, not me. Since I'm not the SK and I'd prefer to see them dead, I strongly believe your argument is wrongheaded.

However, I realize the issue of a mislynch is horribly bad for us right now. And analyzing your past vote history I can see that you are very quick to toss votes and talk of lynching around to pressure people. Thus I will

unvote dybeck

as I see your play as pro-town, in that I would have made a similar accusation in your position and the weight you gave the accusation was a difference in playstyle.

EGMEOY

Now on to AlyG. All I can say is WOW. I agree strongly with Oman and vollkan, my BS detector went through the roof when AlyG made that claim. What really really stood out like a sore thumb was this passage:

And if you guys don't believe then go ahead and lynch me. I dare you. if you do then you have lost a valuable pro-town role.

I really don't see the need for someone claiming with what seems to be a tight case (ie. I tracked a guy that targeted a dead person) to be so defensive and downright threatening in their claim post. It just doesn't make sense.

I also agree with the sentiment that a tracker is a more rare role thus less likely to run into a counterclaim.

Also if I were in this position my first post of the day would have been all about how scummy originality is. His play put him as one of the most erratic in D1 and you very likely could have built up an argument against him without claiming. Heck you still could have built up an argument on this page without claiming. If you really were pro-town you'd do everything in your power to get your 'known scum' lynched without having to out yourself. But this is the first post today you even mention originality. In fact it comes only after your failed attempt of getting a Dr. Blackstrike bandwagon started.

Since the voting is so crucial today I'm going to

HoS AlyG

until we hear back from originality. This is seriously a hair's width from becoming a vote.

[shaft.ed]

It's my first reaction because I was already upset that Retarded Ryan basically pissed away D1 for us. Then the new day begins with the added bonus of having two killing roles, which makes the game much more difficult for the town.

Yes. And I'm having trouble working out how "we have two killing roles" constitutes the same as "there is an SK."

You're right I should have said, that we either have an SK or an incredibly reckless/moronic vigilante that decided to gamble on a NK after a shortened D1 on which we have obsolutely zero evidence as to who may be mafia since no bandwagon got passed L-3. Seriously a vigilante kill on N1 is rare enough, only a complete and utter idiot would have attempted a NK after the amount of information that ryan allowed us to produce on D1.

If there is anyone in this game that doesn't think we have an SK in it could they please raise their hand? I doubt we'll be seeing any.

[shaft.ed]

Lucienne I'd also just unvote to make sure your vote isn't counted if you don't want it to be. We're in a precarious position right now.

I also agree Oman's vote is a bit odd. I had forgetten it preceeding AlyG's claim. Thanks for pointing that out.

Another thing I just realized. If AlyG does come up scum I think this very much implicates Dr. Blackstrike. AlyG started the Day against Blackstrike and now suddenly shifts to originality. I think this points out that Dr. BS is untouchable to AlyG if this is a set up to lynch an innocent.

And it looks as though I could argue all day on this SK comment. But after this game's over maybe I'll make a poll as to how many people would vig kill N1 after a shortened D1 as we had. I think it'll be below 5% maybe even 1%. I'm not talking perfect play here, I'm talking playing aboe the 5th percentile.

[shaft.ed]

Can somebody please tell me why are we going for the tracker and not the scum?

Is it upside-down day? Should I be walking around with shoes on my hand and gloves on my feet?

So you're taking AlyG's word at 100% face value. Not a single thing in that post made you question the authenticity of their claim.

FoS dybeck

[shaft.ed]

Hey Elias and Dr. B care to weigh in? This is looking to be a fairly crucial game choice.

[shaft.ed]

You sir are the most retarded vig I have ever seen in my life. Now do we believe one or either of these claims?

I guess you were right Lucienne.

I need to digest this whole episode. It's hurting my brain. So we have a scummy claim followed by a scummy counterclaim. Just not sure where to go from here.

I need to know the following from both AlyG and originality.

AlyG: Why did you wait to out originality and what prompted you to claim?
Why did you not either claim immediately or at least push for an originality lynch?
Why did you take such a defensive stance in your claiming post?

originality: Why would you kill anyone after a D1 with little to no usable information?
Is there any other reason we should believe you are a vig and not an SK or simple mafia?

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP:

AlyG- You are fu*@ing retarded. You should have kept your mouth shut, why the hell would you claim us two for no real reason?

And why are you blaiming AlyG for outing you? I would have never suspected a vig of performing such a feat.

And please let's lose the language especially when directing it towards our fellow players.

[shaft.ed]

This is moving a bit fast. But I generally agree with vollkan's arguments. Don't have time tonight but I will do a reread tommorow. Definitely comfortable right now with a dybeck lynch, but like has been pointed out many atime now we need to be very careful today.

[shaft.ed]

Nice to see some more thought going on and less jumping to votes.

Vollkan, lets assume you're right. Orig is a vig.

Now: Why did he kill carrotcake?

Why did he kill anybody? I'm still mad about this (if he is the vig).

Our possible scenarios as I see them are as follows:
1) AlyG = Tracker; Orig = Vig: To me, the massive inconsistencies in their behaviours (which we have all noted) makes this seem unlikely.
2) AlyG = Tracker; Orig = Scum (Maf/SK): Very possible. There were only 2 kills yerstday so maybe Orig figured he would have to claim something. Doc, Cop or RB could risk a counter so vig possibly seemed safe, seeing as AlyG, the scummiest person, was not NKed. By that, I mean that vig probably seemed a safe claim to scum-Orig because AlyG, who was such obvious scum, was not NKed. If there was a vig, the vig would likely have targeted AlyG.
3) AlyG = Scum; Orig = Vig: I cannot see scum taking this particular gambit. It would be suicide to claim tracker and then randomly call someone out.
4) AlyG = Mafia; Orig = Mafia: I want this to be true. It would make so much sense given their behaviour, but it is impossible to substantiate without a counter-claim.

I don't know how exotic this would be, but we can't be 100% sure of AlyG's alignment. It's mildly possible that AlyG is a scum tracker and orig is a town vig. So if orig is eventually cleared, I wouldn't let my guard down to AlyG completely. Do realize this is a far outish scenario.

I'm surprised that we haven't had a counterclaim by now. I think this at least points out that either A) orig is in fact the vig or B) we don't have a vig in game. Tracker's are a bit more rare so I believe AlyG's claim, only way he is lying is if him and orig are scum partners. But there is absolutely NO need for them to run such a gambit. The scum were sitting pretty after the first round of death's. Also the odds of either of them being powerroles went up considerably when the first three out of the game came up vanilla townie's.

So from where I am sitting. I am 99% sure AlyG is in fact a tracker, maybe 85-90% sure he is town aligned.

I'm leaning towards believing originality. I really thought AlyG's original post was very scummy and I think after three other people came out against him, originality could have run a gambit in favor of taking down AlyG. Claiming vig (while more convenient in the long run) would basically confirm AlyG as the town tracker opening him up for possible Doc protections from the town and the chance to hit more scum at night. I don't see why he wouldn't bite on the chance to take down AlyG. Also as has been pointed out by vollkan and Oman, originality has basically signed himself up for a NK with his claim either way.

Here are my scenarios I will assume that we don't have any other vig than the one that originality has claimed since there is no counterclaim:

If Orig is Mafia:

6:2:1

: A SK must exist to account for second NK. Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead. Lynching someone else would give us information to work from tommorow. If SK kills orig and he is scum we are left with 4:1:1 in wcs (75%), 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK(13%), 5:0:1 if we lynch the other scum (13%). If SK kills town and we don't lynch orig we are left with 3:2:1 in wcs (pretty much over, 75%), or 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (13%) and again 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK (13%). This set-up is very dependent on SK actions.

Totals for 6:2:1 63% town advantage, 38% likely town loss (3:2:1)

5:3:1

: If the SK kills orig at night we are left with 3:2:1 in worst case scenario(63%), 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (25%), and 4:3:0 (LYLO) if we hit the SK (13%). If the SK kills town and we don't go for orig we're at 2:3:1 in wcs (63%), 3:2:1 if we hit scum (25%) and again 4:3:0 if we hit the SK (13%).

Totals for 5:3:1 13% town advantage, 13% LYLO, 44% likely town loss (3:2:1), 32% auto-loss (2:3:1)

So I'm estimating our odds break down to the following if orig is scum and we let him live today (calculated weighting SK actions 50/50 and 2 vs 3 scum 50/50):
Town advantage (not LYLO): 38%
LYLO: 10%
Town pretty much lost (3:2:1): 36%
Town Auto loss (2:3:1): 16%

If Orig is the Vig:

6:3

There's no SK so the math on this is a bit easier. If orig is the vig and we don't lynch him today we will have 4:3 tommorow if we mislynch (63%) or 5:2 tommorow if we hit scum (38%). This is assuming he doesn't shoot. If he mis-shoots after a mislynch it's game over (

HINT HINT if you are the vig

), if he mis-shoots after a mafia lynch it's 4:2 tommorow. Of course hitting the target after lynching scum would be the best but odds are quite low.
So in sum this leaves us at (assuming no shots):
Town advantage: 38%
LYLO: 63% <-- best case scenario for ANY mislynch today really

If Orig is the SK:

6:2:1

If orig is the SK I think it is very safe to assume that he will be NK'd by the mafia tonight. I will make my following calculations based on this assumption. If we let orig live and the is the SK we have a 75% chance of mislynching town and a 25% chance of lynching scum. Orig would also get a NK which would then have ~ same odds dependent on who was lynched. End result is wcs 2 townies and Sk killed 4:2:0 (LYLO 54%), 1 scum 1 townie killed 5:1:0 (42%), 2 scum killed 6:0:0 (4%).

Town win: 4%, Town advantage: 42%, LYLO: 54%

5:3:1

Again assuming that orig is the vig and is going to be NK'd by mafia but this time there are more mafia. If we don't lynch orig and he is NK'd we will end up with a 63% chance of a mislynch and a 38% chance of hitting scum. Final numbers for the next day will depend on orig's night actions but will leave us with 3:3:0 if two townies are killed (town loss, 36%), 4:2:0 if 1 scum and 1 townie are killed (LYLO, 54%) and 5:1:0 if we lynch scum and orig hits scum (9%).

Town advantage: 9%, LYLO: 54%, town loss: 36%

So weighting the two options for 2 vs 3 scum as equally likely we end up with:
Town win: 2%
Town advantage: 26%
LYLO: 54%
Town Loss: 18%

[shaft.ed]

Oh and if orig is the vig and we lynch him today we are sent into LYLO with our tracker outed.

[shaft.ed]

Actually that post was more for me to get some numbers available to mull over.

mulls

I'm not certain on this yet. I'm thinking letting orig live and having the crossfire sort it out is our best bet, but it's also a gamble, and I don't want to force the town to take a gamble that I am OK with.

One thing I do want to posit to everyone is please don't throw your votes around. We may be in a 5:3:1 situation where mafia can endgame with a mislynch. A quicklynch wouldn't be a poor place in this scenario.

continues mulling

[/i]

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP play not place above

[shaft.ed]

Allright one other thing. I'm a wee bit unhappy that most of the decisions seem to be getting made by us four common posters. I don't know why AlyG hasn't chimed in since originality's claim and I wish originality would add a bit more given his "insight" since his claim. Also Dr. BS is off the map even though he's posted in the discussion forum for advice on adding content. Elias is away till Sunday. And Lucienne seems to get about one meaty post a day so I hope that will come in soon.

[shaft.ed]

I think letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain. Vollkan's done the math, read up on that.

I'm not quite sure though. If it's a claimed killing role this could lead to crossfire amongst warring factions. Don't know what others take is on running that gambit.

[shaft.ed]

And 'strangulation' - does this sound like the hallmark of the vig?

Remember we're on a plane. Guns can't get on planes, and they're bad things to shoot off. I wouldn't weight this either way.

[shaft.ed]

I'm pretty much on the same page as vollkan. And I'm advocating a slow down to the voting once again. I'd say putting someone at L-2 without consent is suspicious given the game conditions. Would really like to hear more participation.

So you guys want me to track dybeck during the night?

I really don't want you to be guided in any way. The more the mafia know what's going on the more they can prepare for it. It's not out of the question that they have a roleblocker either. Just do what you think is best.


I Personally don't have a problem with Lucienne right now. Best of luck with your family matters.
To all I'm LA over the weekends, please don't do anything crazy guys.

[shaft.ed]

No time for long post just want to add:

I realized that if Orig is the vig, the mafia would benefit greatly from his lynch as they don't have to waste their NK on him and can thus take out our claimed tracker during the night instead.

Also on the matter of vig killing, I'd prefer a no kill if you are the vig.
If we hit scum we'll be at 5:2 tommorow. A mis-kill puts us at 4:2 (LyLo)
If we hit town we'll be at 4:3 tommorow (LyLo). A mis-kill puts us at 3:3 (loss).
I'd also be more inclined to believe you're not a SK if you take a night off.

Finally, we still only have 2-3 people contributing to the discussion. I thought we were going to be keeping the voting down to prevent a possibly quicklynch.

FoS vollkan

for the votes.

No time for my other points.

[shaft.ed]

AlyG care to add more. There's a lot going on and I can see you're paying attention, but I'd really like to hear something from you. Especially since you outed originality, I'd like to know where you stand on his claim and, if you believe it, who else looks suspicious in your book.

[shaft.ed]

If shaft.ed is not the serial killer I will eat my hat.

I'm 100% certain that originality is scum

You seem very certain of your predictions. Did you end up being co-mod?

That said I'm not totally comfortable with a dybeck lynch at this point. While I agree heartily with vollkan, I'm a little bit worried of scum buddying up to me. I am also a bit uneasy with Oman's tendency to change his mind so easily as of late. So for reasons I've mentioned earlier I'd really like dybeck to not be at L-2 right now. At least let's hear from Dr. BS and Elias.

[shaft.ed]

and we need to know what he did during the night!

No we don't stop fishing. We need to know IF his night action has any bearing on today (i.e. if he's doc, it really doesn't. If he's cop with a guilty on you or orig...it really does)

Why are AlyG and orig the only people who matter if a guilty investigation turns up.

And yes that is rolefishing AlyG

FoS

On the Dr. BS side of things I think he's AWOL. Five days without a post anywhere on site. Any chance for a re-prod?

[shaft.ed]

OK I'm starting to get a wee bit uncomfortable with two people effectively running the show here.

While I agree totally with vollkan's logic, I'm a bit uneasy that someone seeming so careful would have no qualms with leaving dybeck at L-2 when we haven't really heard from almost

one third

of the town this

entire

day. You do realize with the set up there's ~65% chance that at least one of the three people we haven't heard from is scum (Elias, Dr. BS, Lucienne [granted she's away for family reasons]). I do think dybeck's actions are a bit scummy, but we've got one player lurking through the entire day (and most of day 1 for that matter) and another that hasn't posted on site for six days contributing no content today. But you're that sure about dybeck that you don't really want to look at them? Also if they are scum, do you realize how easy it will be for them to stroll into the game and say "you guys are right, I agree with a dybeck lynch." This is getting a little out of hand for my tastes.

And Oman has recently been setting a little uneasy with me. His last post, suggesting an AlyG lynch instead of orig, is just logically flawed. There are only two unlikely scenarios whereby AlyG is scum 1) AlyG is a scum aligned tracker, 2) AlyG and orig set up some crazy scheme to trick the town by outing originality as someone that indescriminantly NK's. While I'm a little bit worried about #1, #2 is just ludicrous in my mind after the scum got through D1/N1 with three town dead. On the other hand, if you were to lynch someone between orig and AlyG the reasons for picking originality are greater in number and in plausibility. And it's also worth noting that if orig were scum, the scum would want him alive with AlyG dead so that they can lynch the confirmed tracker and NK whoever they please.

FoS Oman

I'm not voting Oman because I've saved my vote for Elias. Elias pretty much lurked through D1 with a few posts of significance (including joining the originality page 1 bandwagon). And in D2 he has contributed zero, while still be active on site. I'm voting for him until he adds to the discussion.

vote Elias the Theif

[shaft.ed]

dybeck,
While I see what you are talking about in that AlyG's claim makes it painfully clear the originality killed a townie last night, I think you are doing a very poor job of reading into the implications of originality's actions following AlyG's claim. Originality had a lot of options open to him after AlyG's post and he decided on one that puts him in the worst possible situation where he is very likely to die tonight. Please take the time to look over my points.

1) originality could have shot back at AlyG. AlyG's claim post was scummy as hell. This has been analyzed by three players (me vollkan and Oman). All of whom commented before originality. If scum, he could have simply lied and said "no way I didn't kill anybody last night" and pushed for an AlyG lynch. While this would have resulted in his very immenent death when AlyG's role was revealed he would have at least taken down a powerrole with him. Instead originality does the opposite. He owns up to the kill and states that he firmly believes AlyG to be town. Note this goes against orig being mafia, but clearly leaves open the SK.

2) Originality didn't have to claim vig. Vigilante was probably the worst scum claim in that situation outside of Doc or Tracker #2. Sure it explains the death and so he might live past AlyG, but it a) makes him a prime target for NK regardless of alignment and b) leads to a ton more suspicion than if he had just claimed Roleblocker.
For point a) assuming he is not the vig, this means that there has to be an SK in the game. If originality is false claiming either the mafia or the SK know it, and are incredibly likely to NK him this evening or at least sometime in the near future. A SK would never do this as he has only one life to live, this would draw way too much attention to himself from the mafia and the town. The mafia are unlikely to claim vig as the SK will undoubtedly NK orig for this claim either tonight or the next at the latest.
Point b) is listed because I have seen it mentioned that the vig is the most convenient claim. I have to disagree. To me, a roleblocker would have been safe. It would explain the tracking and it would clear orig of carrotcake's death if believed. It's also less likely than a vig so not as likely to have a counterclaim. A watcher also would have sufficed in that it's unlikely to be countered. At the very least a cop claim would out the cop, note that this point does not support orig as the SK. But a vig is a rather common role, and it has not yet been countered.

Finally, we're in a precarious situation here. A mislynch puts us a LyLo in the best case scenario. I think there is enough reason to keep originality alive for the day at least. If there are two NK's tonight he's the obvious lynch tommorow (if he's still alive). Keeping him alive also has the added benefit of likely crossfire during the night, which may aid in keeping alive our claimed tracker. I think between the benefits of having him as a night distraction and the possibility that his claim is real are enough to not lynch him today.

[shaft.ed]

Oh and I forgot one more point when writing up the above, Distancing.

If scum where in fact nailed so obviously as AlyG seems to have, it would be a pretty likely reaction for scum partners to distance themselves from the accused. The only people at a distance from originality right now appear to be AlyG and dybeck. I know this is WIFOMy but still a point to be put out there.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP AlyG nailing originality in the above sentence to be clear. And no not nailed in that way get your minds out of the gutter.

[shaft.ed]

OK originality please calm down with the talk of vig killing tonight. I posted many pages back about the dangers of having a second kill tonight and they are all quite obviously bad for the town. In fact I'm quite surprised you would bring this back up again

FoS originality

.

Also on the matter of vig killing, I'd prefer a no kill if you are the vig.
If we hit scum we'll be at 5:2 tommorow. A mis-kill puts us at 4:2 (LyLo)
If we hit town we'll be at 4:3 tommorow (LyLo). A mis-kill puts us at 3:3 (loss).
I'd also be more inclined to believe you're not a SK if you take a night off.

And orig, if you are pro-town, I believe you are playing quite naively right now. You do realize that you are listing a large number of players (4) as almost definitely town. By pure mathematics the odds of at least one of us four being mafia is 80%. I know this is a game about reading people, but the scum will be trying very hard to look pro-town. You also have to remember, if you are pro-town, the mafia know this too. Think of the townie credibility they will gain when they have all along been defending the vig that was backed into a corner. Don't be overly paranoid, but remember just because someone is on your side in an argument, doesn't make them on your side in the game. In short I'm just trying to say, in another way

please don't kill anyone tonight

.

@Elias, Thanks for responding. Even if you aren't adding content it's nice to know you're alive.

unvote

for now

@Gemelli, Thanks a lot for taking over for the good Dr. While I'm sure you won't match his unique play style, I'm also sure we'll all be better off for it.

@Oman, Your most recent example of vote hopping did not go unnoticed.

[shaft.ed]

dybeck, I know there's a lot to read when revisiting the thread after the back and forths that seem to go on in the night. But could you please address the post I made earlier.

dybeck,
While I see what you are talking about in that AlyG's claim makes it painfully clear the originality killed a townie last night, I think you are doing a very poor job of reading into the implications of originality's actions following AlyG's claim. Originality had a lot of options open to him after AlyG's post and he decided on one that puts him in the worst possible situation where he is very likely to die tonight. Please take the time to look over my points.

1) originality could have shot back at AlyG. AlyG's claim post was scummy as hell. This has been analyzed by three players (me vollkan and Oman). All of whom commented before originality. If scum, he could have simply lied and said "no way I didn't kill anybody last night" and pushed for an AlyG lynch. While this would have resulted in his very immenent death when AlyG's role was revealed he would have at least taken down a powerrole with him. Instead originality does the opposite. He owns up to the kill and states that he firmly believes AlyG to be town. Note this goes against orig being mafia, but clearly leaves open the SK.

2) Originality didn't have to claim vig. Vigilante was probably the worst scum claim in that situation outside of Doc or Tracker #2. Sure it explains the death and so he might live past AlyG, but it a) makes him a prime target for NK regardless of alignment and b) leads to a ton more suspicion than if he had just claimed Roleblocker.
For point a) assuming he is not the vig, this means that there has to be an SK in the game. If originality is false claiming either the mafia or the SK know it, and are incredibly likely to NK him this evening or at least sometime in the near future. A SK would never do this as he has only one life to live, this would draw way too much attention to himself from the mafia and the town. The mafia are unlikely to claim vig as the SK will undoubtedly NK orig for this claim either tonight or the next at the latest.
Point b) is listed because I have seen it mentioned that the vig is the most convenient claim. I have to disagree. To me, a roleblocker would have been safe. It would explain the tracking and it would clear orig of carrotcake's death if believed. It's also less likely than a vig so not as likely to have a counterclaim. A watcher also would have sufficed in that it's unlikely to be countered. At the very least a cop claim would out the cop, note that this point does not support orig as the SK. But a vig is a rather common role, and it has not yet been countered.

Finally, we're in a precarious situation here. A mislynch puts us a LyLo in the best case scenario. I think there is enough reason to keep originality alive for the day at least. If there are two NK's tonight he's the obvious lynch tommorow (if he's still alive). Keeping him alive also has the added benefit of likely crossfire during the night, which may aid in keeping alive our claimed tracker. I think between the benefits of having him as a night distraction and the possibility that his claim is real are enough to not lynch him today.

[shaft.ed]

dybeck thanks for chiming and giving a lot of insight behind your reasoning this time around. It'll be nice to get a back and forth going on this one.

Shaft.ed, my point is that there really

were

no other options available to originality.

A doc claim would have been nonsense, since his target died, as would a townie claim, since he had a night action.

Agreed

A cop claim would have been countered immediately, while roleblocker claims are notoriously bad claims, since they prove nothing about alignment, since mafia roleblockers are at least as common as protown ones.

If mafia, a cop claim would have at least outed the cop. Personally I think this is a better outcome than a vig claim. For that reason I think not claiming cop helps rule out mafia but not SK. And I personally didn't know about that flaw in the roleblocker claim. I'll file that in my notebook in case I play a mafia role in the future.

It would have been wildly improbable, especially having had one non-standard role, if any other exotic roles had been present.

I wouldn't call it wildly improbable but it's always 'convenient' when someone claims a non-standard role, that's unlikely for a counter claim. Mildly agree with this point

After being backed into a corner by being caught, his only claim with the remotest chance of success was vigilante. Countering AlyG with a "you're lying" post would have seemed to me like a terrible idea - originality was considered far scummier than AlyG yesterday (by everyone except me, at least), and if I'd been him, I wouldn't have thought it would have had any chance of success. AlyG had no reason to claim at that point, had he been scum.

I would not say anyone was

far

scummier yesterday than anyone else. The day showed a lot of scummy behavior from a lot of players, but since ryan decided to be an ass we had no lynching votes to go on. I personally found AlyG and originality even in scuminess yesterday, but both of their actions could also be seen as newb tells. And if you also take into account that AlyG was basically the punching bag throughout the beginings of today, I don't think many people would agree with you that originality was more scummy at the time than AlyG. In fact I don't know if you'd agree with yourself:

2)a) the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and my gut says he's not scum. That's it.

It just seems to me like a desperate claim from someone that had no other option. I know I'm banging over old ground again but, sorry, I'm so sure I'm right.

Not banging over old ground you're actually supporting your arguments a bit better this time. But I have to ask are you more sure orig is scum than I am the serial killer?

[shaft.ed]

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

And claiming 1 shot vig is pretty poor idea orig. Why would a one shot vig use their one shot with so little information?

[shaft.ed]

Honestly I don't find either of your arguments about Carrotcake convincing. While Carrotcake wasn't that suspicious he was lurking. I'd say Carrotcake was not a likely choice for vig, but not an obvious choice for scum. I'd lean this one in the scummy direction, but not very heavily.

[shaft.ed]

Dybeck: "Shaft.ed is the SK"
Town: "What are you talking about"
Dybeck: "Shaft.ed is the SK"
Town: "Are you on crack?"
Dybeck: "Shaft.ed is the SK"
Town: "No Way"
Dybeck: "Let's kill originality"
Originality: "I'm the vig don't kill me"
Dybeck: "OK well your claim is bogus"

Town: "No way!"
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "Dybeck's looking scummy to me."
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "I think we should kill Dybeck"
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "C'mon! We have to lynch Dybeck!"
Dybeck: "Originality's claim is bogus"
Town: "Dybeck's right... Originality's claim is bogus... I wonder why he wasn't playing well earlier."
Dybeck:

There fixed that for you

[shaft.ed]

If Orig is the SK, then Dybeck's latest actions in no way make him pro-town, for the simple reason that he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon. This goes for anyone, but I just don't think we should be pegging Dybeck as a townie purely because he is hunting a SK.

Absolutely, the scum want the SK dead just as much as the vig. They are of equal threat to mafia.

Secondly, I don't know whether we should be demanding that Orig does not NK. By telling him not to kill, we nullify the threat he presents to the mafia. I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought.

If originality is the vig I do not want him to NK. I don't care, it's terrible situation by the numbers and killing Carrotcake is no testemant to his thought process. Moreover, allowing him to kill gives us no idea whether or not he's vig or SK. If he kills non-scum and survives the night via some mafia mind games he will be auto-lynched tommorow and my vote will be very happily on the wagon.

Thirdly, the matter of lynching Orig. If Orig is lynched, we can be certain that AlyG will be NKed. AlyG's power is very useful.

Pointed this out numerous times.

Whilst the mafia have no way of knowing whether Orig is pro-town vig or SK, I think they may be able to make a good guess based on whether they have 2 or 3 members.

Very true. This would mean that if a SK exists and they have only two members he'd be a greater threat than a vig with 3. Don't know how that helps us gain insight however.

[shaft.ed]

Dybeck has been steadfast in focusing on originality

while other bandwagons have come and gone

. So I'd be more likely to suspect Oman (for example) as the SK, based on play patterns to date.

OK I agree with the Oman point. But what other wagon has there been for Dybeck to get on today? There haven't been other bandwagons today except for his own and he's not going to vote for himself. And the other originality wagon occured before dybeck replaced into the game. Let's not foget that dybeck had no suspicion of originality yesterday.

2)a) the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and my gut says he's not scum. That's it.

So the entire argument is based on the AlyG situation, and yes this is strong evidence, but I think dybeck is looking at it very superficially.

Generally, I'm confused about all the talk of "counterclaims." Isn't it possible for a game setup to have (for example) more than one Cop, or even Vig? I don't understand the logic of "you can't be a Cop, because I am the Cop."

In a normal mini there's definitely not enough room for multiple cops unless the mod put in some with different sanities, multiple vig's would also cause way too much death and destruction at night. So having the same role would be quite rare in a normal mini.

[shaft.ed]

Shaft.ed, originality: Who would be your top 2 choices for lynching tonight, and why?

Right now I don't think I have only 2 to pick from. Honestly the majority of the players in this game are coming off scummy but I'll do a short run-down of my impressions listed in a relative order from town to scum:

AlyG: If not for originality supporting AlyG's claim, I'd be screaming for his lynch. AlyG was amongst the top of the heap yesterday for scumminess and started out today on a bad note. His claim on originality reeked of scum, but when originality fessed up to killing Carrotcake I knew he had to be a Tracker. Still holding a spot in the back of my mind for a scum aligned tracker but since this is not likely I've got to believe AlyG as town.

vollkan: Sub'd in for a player that had no content yesterday so he gets a clean slate today. Most of his posts are logical and have the town in mind. However, I'm getting some very subtle scumtells from him, but I don't what to point them out right now because I'd rather him not be able to correct them. If I had to bet on a townie right now it'd be vollkan.

Lucienne: Came off fairly townish yesterday, but hasn't contributed much of anything earth-shattering. Also on the same track today and has become even less frequent in posting due to RL issues. Certainly comes off as someone that is flying off the radar. I get a mild town vibe but very hard to read.

Elias: Biggest lurker of the game adding no content to today's activities. He posted infrequently yesterday as well, but made one or two obviously town moves. I'd mark him as unreadable.

Gemelli: You replaced in for a crazy guy. His play was decidely confusing and possibly scummy but a few of us that have meta'd/played with Dr. BS kind of understood what he may have been up to. So far you're too new for me to get a read. But given that you were starting from a negative I'd lean you on the anti-town side.

dybeck: He rubbed me the wrong way yesterday with his agressiveness, but upon doing a re-read I didn't notice anything overtly scummy. So coming into today I had him in the overly agressive possibly pro-town column. He starts off today calling for my lynch based on one single tell. Then he completely ignores the scumminess of AlyG's tracker claim and calls for originality's head without orig even getting a post in. And subsequently argued "orig killed carrotcake, carrotcake was

VERY

protown, and orig was

totally scum

yesterday so he must be scum." In reality he didn't find orig scummy yesterday and I find it hard to believe carrotcake was the most pro-town player in the game (post on that later). While doing this, I feel he is completely ignoring the ramifications of an orig lynch (ie the NK of AlyG, sending us into LyLo if he is town). Just now after pages of being asked to provide reasoning behind his argument he is starting to look townish. I've got him as scummy and am almost comfortable with a dybeck lynch today.

originality: Played quite poorly yesterday. Gave off a few scumtells, but many of these could be seen as newbtells and was dogged by many people over posts he made in the random voting phase. Starts off today by being outed as a town killer by AlyG. But I believe the claim was probably the worst move for either scum or SK so I'm inclined to let him live. I also think that lynching orig sets up the scum to take out AlyG this evening as it's very likely if orig is SK he will be the target of the mafia (same goes for vig). I doubt he is mafia based on the fact that he a) didn't try to rebut AlyG and turn the claim around and b) didn't claim cop to out the town cop. And I don't think he's SK because he claimed vig which is basically a death sentence in the night. Basically I don't think the town can reliably pin down originality and being a confirmed killing role he is a definite threat to scum which I'd rather them have to deal with so AlyG gets another night of investigation without worry.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket

vote whoever was just mentioned

." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

[shaft.ed]

OK I agree with the Oman point. But what other wagon has there been for Dybeck to get on today?

No *major* bandwagons, true. But there was some action vs AlyG early on in Day 2 (vollkan, oman x3) and dybeck kept his focus.

Actually at that time he was trying to get me lynched but that went nowhere.

[shaft.ed]

The Life and Times of Carrotcake the Most Pro-Town Players Ever

Carrotcake's time with us was cut tragically short by the hands for originality. Now we are left to ponder whether originality commited this act as one of malice or one of caution. Let us examine here the incredible contributions carrotcake made to our town during her time here.

Carrotcake was not at all an active poster. She made a total of

9 posts

on a day that contained 333 that's right she contributed to 2.7% of the dialogue. Now let's look at those posts chronologically:

First post:

Vote: originality

Random voting phase. Nothing of significance.

Second post:

its just the first day, its not like we need a very good reason to vote on anyone.

Voting - sure, but

lynching

without a good reason is asking for trouble

iunless you expect to catch scum on the very first lynch, chances are we are going to get a townie. might as well make the best of it by lynching the ones that are not contributing.

Of course we expect to hang scum! There is a chance that we would lynch a power role too, as we don't know the set-up.

or maybe you are just ignoring all logic to save your scumbuddies?

Lucienne, is in very little danger as of now. He has no posts, and its too early to call him a lurker. His fellow scum would not get rattled (if he is indeed scum). Spurg, and Aly are the ones taking the time to be logical here. You are being too pushy.

Aly might be too forward by voting for you, but you seem like a person with a lot to say. Adding pressure to you might be nice for the town.

Pointing out politely that originality is wrong in supporting the lynching of lurkers and that games here are slower so someone is not considered a lurker until they haven't posted for a number of days.

Third Post:

Whatever [/ quote]

Whatever [/ quote]

Whatever [/ quote]
Remove all the spaces inside the braces, and just play around with it. Don't forget the quotation marks. I see people double post all the time, so it isn't a bad thing as far as I know.

Teaching AlyG how to use quote tags. Very pro-town activity here.

Fourth Post:

I have to go away for a few days. I might still be able to post, but I cant guarantee that I can scan through posts like normal.

Not going be here for a few days. Not much to add.

Fifth Post:

- I thought everyone vanilla claims by default at the start of the game, so Blackstrike's claim is meaningless. The scum might think that he is lying and aim for him anyways, or they might think that he is drawing attention for a NK and vote for someone else. Its a WIFOM, that does not help the scum at all. His next posts were a bit confusing though.



--- for the vamp and oman thing

When I say defending himself with an attack I mean as his defense, he attacks.

Drawing attention from yourself is indeed scummy. But to me, it just seems like he is attacking. Being aggressive is actually a favorable trait for a townie, as it makes things happen. And allows the town to create an informed decision.

-

Did anyone actually see what the size one writing said? Anyway that seemed scummy for me

I might be misunderstanding you, but do you mean you have not even read the small white text?

Start's by saying she doesn't find Dr. BS claiming vanilla scummy.
Then she defends Oman from VampanezeHunter's ludicrous argument and points out VH was a moron.

Sixth Post:

On AlyG --- after a short read of posts

- Very aggressive against originality, he attacks "lets lynch the lurkers" over a series of posts. AlyG then attacks originality after listening to general reasoning, and changing his mind. Not really scummy, but it seems to be bloodthirsty. This worries me as it seems like bullying an easy target. Getting an easy lynch.


- "And originality, if you don't come up with a good defence i'll be voting for you which means you'll already at 4 votes. Not good. " - AlyG
"you shouldn't be so eager to put votes on people. He was already on 3 votes and getting to 4 on the 2nd page is going a bit to far. " -AlyG to Oman
You yourself threatened to cast the fourth vote, but you attack Oman for doing it instead of you. You seem to care too much about the placement of your own votes, as if you are avoiding something.
- Voted for vamp, on the grounds of lurking.
- "Guys please don't lynch Vampeneze hunter until he's given an explanation." Even while you still have a vote on him. Afraid to look wishy washy if you keep voting unvoting? Or would you like to use this as water to wash your hands clean if he did come up as town?
- " And Dr. Blackstrike who's role claiming is really destroying our chances of winning. " Is really destroying seems to be an exaggeration. Invoking hate against Blackstrike.


- You do not switch your votes around. You already know about being wishy washy, so you might be working to avoid vote switching. You do however call out plenty of suspects while seemingly relying on what other people to dig deeper. Planning to cause confusion? You do explain your reasons, but it hardly feels like your own.

- Hey wait a moment, I think im seeing the same post twice , oh well I have written quite a bit already so I might as well just post it

Vote: AlyG

for spreading confusion and hate

I have to intense studying to in to, this is my last long post for a while (even if the quality is quite low). I can still post small snippets though!

This is really her only contribution to the game. Points out that AlyG is acting scummy in many ways some new some repeats of other's points but amassed in one compendium. Then says she won't be posting much.

Seventh Post:

I don't like the idea of lynching a claimed( semi-claimed?)power role today. Very little harm could come from letting him live another night. If he does turn out to be town, we get one night of benefits. There isn't exactly a shortage of suspects anyways. Lets just hang him tomorrow.

Defends Dr. BS stating that lynching claimed powerroles is bad. Then ends by saying let's just kill him tommorow a bit scummy there.

Eight Post:

Well Carrotcake said the exact same thing a page ago! Yet you don't seem to be attacking her. Either you overlooked it or you two could be a possible scum partnership.

That still does not answer why you did it. Are you saying that you simply echo my posts?

I love the way you try to shift blame around. I am scummy for something that YOU did ? And the person who attacked you for it is scummy too. Madness!

Lets just hang him tomorrow.

I said that to somewhat satisfy the bloodlust against the doctor. I did not place a death date, as I am aware that through a night action he might have a chance to prove himself. The tone of that when I imagined it is probably much different than what you are thinking about right now. My apologies for not making it clear.

Ends up defending the fact that she said Let's just hang him tommorow. Gee imagine that.

Ninth Post:

When was the last time we had a prod?
Could we please have prods if it has been a while. It seems vamp isn't posting on another game too, so he might have just walked out and quit. It would be great if we could get a replacement fast.
I don't believe in Lynch all Liars, as a guiltless lynch cant be good for the town. Originality might have just made a misinterpretation.

Asks for a prod after having only contributed 8 posts to the game. Doesn't realize vamp has already been replaced. Then says we shouldn't lynch liars.

This ends the words of carrotcake. While I don't find Carrotcake very scummy, how can anyone argue that she was

decidedly

pro-town? I seriously have more trouble wrapping my head around a vig wanting to kill at all than a vig wanting to kill Carrotcake.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, while I agree with you that Dr. BS was crazy suspicious, he was also crazy and a claimed powerrole. I definitely wouldn't have killed a claimed powerrole N1 with his meta-history especially.

Obviously from my earlier comments I would not have vig'd anyone after yesterday's debacle. But if I

had

to kill it would have been either originality or AlyG. Carrotcake would have likely been in the middle of my priority list as she was lurking too much to read as town or mafia. But you can clearly read originality's sentiments on lurkers being a safer kill because if they do come up town at least you've taken out a town member that wasn't contributing. This opinion was very clear and led to most of the confrontations in the early game. To the contrary of what many have stated, Carrotcake only had one single post in which she was actively scum-hunting yesterday. I fail to see how she was an asset to the town outside of being one more warm body the mafia has to kill in order to win. Thus I can see some reason for originality to have chosen Carrotcake. While I totally do not find it wise, I do not see it as overtly scummy compared to any other players that were available.

[shaft.ed]

1)

But again, suppose you were a vig and trying to make a good decision on behalf of the town. Wouldn't you want to make a few posts about a player you were suspicious of? If nothing else, I'd want to be sure that my target got a chance to defend him/herself, and to hear other people's opinions as to whether this person was a good target. The fact that CC got targetted out of the blue, with zero discussion of her as a suspect ahead of time, is what looks fishy to me.

2)

I guess at this point, my best-case scenario would be if Originality agrees to target Oman tonight, or some other target we think is highly suspicious. I agree with the idea of not lynching Orig tonight, but only if he agrees to let a consensus direct his action.

1)

While the day shortening due to ryan made it unreasonable for a vig to act (which is why I think vig kill was a bad idea), it also excluded a lot of the things you're talking about. There really would not have been much time to set someone up like that when the day just up and ends all of the sudden. The decision would likely have been made after the modkill as a result.

2)

I don't agree with the targeting idea. As has been pointed out ad nauseum, I find it much more likely orig-scum would be SK than mafia due to his claiming actions. Therefore, directing a SK to kill someone really has no meaning as their goal is to kill

anybody

on a given night. I agree we should direct his actions, but that they should be directed towards no kill. That way if he is lying and doesn't want to be outed he at least has to make a pro-town sacrifice for the night.

[shaft.ed]

OK, you lost me around that last turn.

As has been pointed out ad nauseum, I find it much more likely orig-scum would be SK than mafia due to his claiming actions.

And I don't think he's SK because he claimed vig which is basically a death sentence in the night.

Do you think he's an SK, or not?

I'm leaning towards "not" myself for the exact reason you quoted previously (614).

This is one of the reasons I don't heavily believe orig is scum of any type the claim works poorly for

either

SK or mafia.

Therefore, directing a SK to kill someone really has no meaning as their goal is to kill

anybody

on a given night. I agree we should direct his actions, but that they should be directed towards no kill. That way if he is lying and doesn't want to be outed he at least has to make a pro-town sacrifice for the night.

I'm not sure I agree. It's true that each kill brings the SK one step closer to his win condition. But we're facing a situation where we have *confirmation* that originality is able to nightkill. So the attention is already on him as a possible SK. And if he's a vig or an SK, the mafia very likely wants him dead tonight.

If we choose to have him not target anyone tonight, and he agrees, we may gain useful information during the next night phase. However, this is not a guarantee. In this scenario, what can we really deduce if he survives? The metagame/WIFOM possibilities are vast.

On the other hand, if we choose to have him target a given player tonight, and he agrees, in effect we give the town two lynch votes. THAT is a situation that I believe the Mafia would be unwilling to tolerate. So if AlyG is really a tracker, and Orig is really a vig, the Mafia would have a very difficult decision to make tonight.

So: I think the most pertinent question we need answered now is whether originality *will* allow a consensus of living players to determine his actions for the night, regardless of whether they are to kill a specific player, or none at all. If he's pro-town, surely he recognizes that he should not be relying solely on his own judgement, based on what happened last night.

Originality: how about it?

I still feel directing any kill is a poor decision. We have so little information as to who is mafia due to yesterday's play by ryan. So even though the town gets two effective lynches they are both chosen with very little information as to who is scum. Also I would at least argue a vig kill is totally out of the question if our lynch turns up town. In this situation a mis-kill puts the town at a loss 3:3. That's not worth the gamble in any way. I might be a little more likely to agree to a kill on the contigency that we lynch scum, but I still don't like it since it moves us to LyLo.

But yes I see your point. Assuming he's the vig, by telling orig to definitely not kill anyone tonight, the mafia can ignore him and kill AlyG since we have effectively neutered our vig for the night and it's likely he still won't be very trusted tommorow.

[shaft.ed]

Originality, can you tell us how the flavor of your vig role marries up with the fact that you're strangling people? It seems hopelessly out of flavor for a vig. I'd also be grateful if nobody else other than originality answers this question for him, for (hopefully) obvious reasons.

Sorry to have been doing this recently. I was kicking myself this afternoon after orig posted following me "yeah yeah what shaft.ed said."

[shaft.ed]

I find it far easier to believe he's mafia, simply because of the number of people who've rallied behind him. I hope he's mafia, because if he is we have a huge amount of information to go on tomorrow.

I find this comment scummy. Why try to scare townspeople from holding a belief based on logic? Also if he were mafia we have an SK in the game. There's a reasonable chance with an SK to have only 2 scum, meaning 1 scum partner. There's more town to create a huge number of people behind him than there are scum.

I'd be perfectly OK with stipulating the following as our approach:

(1) The town is going to lynch player A.
(2) If at twilight, it is revealed that player A is scum, originality should target player B at night.
(3) If at twilight, it is revealed that player A is pro-town, originality should not target anyone at night.

And yes, I realize that we still have to decide who players A and B are going to be If we move forward with this as a plan, I would suggest not using standard votes for this, since we would need to make TWO decisions (not one) before we trigger twilight. Maybe a less formal straw poll or something would work?

If we move forward with this, I'll absolutely understand if one of the players to be targetted ends up being me, based on the erratic musings of Dr. BS. (Though I hope that doesn't happen; I'm enjoying this game quite a bit already.)

All of this is, of course, contingent on originality agreeing with the strategy.

I think I can agree to that. Need to sit down with some maths tonight.

[shaft.ed]

If you're mafia, that'd be OK for us. If you're the SK, we lose like I pointed out.

Actually no we don't if he's SK and gets NK'd and say we mis-lynch today that will leave:
4:3:0 if he SK's town or
5:2:0 if he SK's mafia

And this is assuming wcs where there are three scum and a SK.

[shaft.ed]

OK I went through the first page of finished mini's on this forum to get an idea of what flavor we might expect to get from a vig or SK. As you can see the killing scenes (when described) vary quite a lot. We've got three vig's with knives, 2 with guns, 1 that strangles and uses other methods. I really wouldn't rely on flavor in adding any info outside of who killed who in future nights of this particular game.

Mini 470: Vig killed with a machete
Mini 467: SK stabbed victims
Mini 460: Vig stabbed victims
Mini 455: Vig strangled and poisoned or butchered victims
Mini 443: Vig shot victims
Mini 436: Vig shot victims

[shaft.ed]

If you're mafia, that'd be OK for us. If you're the SK, we lose like I pointed out.

Actually no we don't if he's SK and gets NK'd and say we mis-lynch today that will leave:
4:3:0 if he SK's town or
5:2:0 if he SK's mafia

And this is assuming wcs where there are three scum and a SK.

We have 9 players left. A lynch, a SK kill and a mafia kill leaves 6 players, not seven. The scenarios you've listed are what would happen if we went with a no-lynch.

Sorry by bad. I posted on all of this a while ago let me pull up the numbers from that.

Here are my scenarios I will assume that we don't have any other vig than the one that originality has claimed since there is no counterclaim:

If Orig is Mafia:

6:2:1

: A SK must exist to account for second NK. Would it be reasonable here to assume the SK would target orig in the night? If so lynching him is a possible waste opening up the SK to kill a likely townie instead. Lynching someone else would give us information to work from tommorow. If SK kills orig and he is scum we are left with 4:1:1 in wcs (75%), 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK(13%), 5:0:1 if we lynch the other scum (13%). If SK kills town and we don't lynch orig we are left with 3:2:1 in wcs (pretty much over, 75%), or 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (13%) and again 5:2:0 if we lynch the SK (13%). This set-up is very dependent on SK actions.

Totals for 6:2:1 63% town advantage, 38% likely town loss (3:2:1)

5:3:1

: If the SK kills orig at night we are left with 3:2:1 in worst case scenario(63%), 4:1:1 if we lynch scum (25%), and 4:3:0 (LYLO) if we hit the SK (13%). If the SK kills town and we don't go for orig we're at 2:3:1 in wcs (63%), 3:2:1 if we hit scum (25%) and again 4:3:0 if we hit the SK (13%).

Totals for 5:3:1 13% town advantage, 13% LYLO, 44% likely town loss (3:2:1), 32% auto-loss (2:3:1)

So I'm estimating our odds break down to the following if orig is scum and we let him live today (calculated weighting SK actions 50/50 and 2 vs 3 scum 50/50):
Town advantage (not LYLO): 38%
LYLO: 10%
Town pretty much lost (3:2:1): 36%
Town Auto loss (2:3:1): 16%

If Orig is the Vig:

6:3

There's no SK so the math on this is a bit easier. If orig is the vig and we don't lynch him today we will have 4:3 tommorow if we mislynch (63%) or 5:2 tommorow if we hit scum (38%). This is assuming he doesn't shoot. If he mis-shoots after a mislynch it's game over (

HINT HINT if you are the vig

), if he mis-shoots after a mafia lynch it's 4:2 tommorow. Of course hitting the target after lynching scum would be the best but odds are quite low.
So in sum this leaves us at (assuming no shots):
Town advantage: 38%
LYLO: 63% <-- best case scenario for ANY mislynch today really

If Orig is the SK:

6:2:1

If orig is the SK I think it is very safe to assume that he will be NK'd by the mafia tonight. I will make my following calculations based on this assumption. If we let orig live and the is the SK we have a 75% chance of mislynching town and a 25% chance of lynching scum. Orig would also get a NK which would then have ~ same odds dependent on who was lynched. End result is wcs 2 townies and Sk killed 4:2:0 (LYLO 54%), 1 scum 1 townie killed 5:1:0 (42%), 2 scum killed 6:0:0 (4%).

Town win: 4%, Town advantage: 42%, LYLO: 54%

5:3:1

Again assuming that orig is the vig and is going to be NK'd by mafia but this time there are more mafia. If we don't lynch orig and he is NK'd we will end up with a 63% chance of a mislynch and a 38% chance of hitting scum. Final numbers for the next day will depend on orig's night actions but will leave us with 3:3:0 if two townies are killed (town loss, 36%), 4:2:0 if 1 scum and 1 townie are killed (LYLO, 54%) and 5:1:0 if we lynch scum and orig hits scum (9%).

Town advantage: 9%, LYLO: 54%, town loss: 36%

So weighting the two options for 2 vs 3 scum as equally likely we end up with:
Town win: 2%
Town advantage: 26%
LYLO: 54%
Town Loss: 18%

It obviously depends a lot on whether or not we've got 3 or 4 total scum in the game. But assuming the more likely 3 total scum the only way we outright lose in that scenario is if orig is mafia, we lynch town and scum and SK both kill different town during the night phase.

However if we want to speculate on 4 total scum things get much more grim.

[shaft.ed]

Wow. How broken. No wonder DragonsofSummer hasn't modded a game before or since.

Mod: is this your first game as mod?

It's pretty unbalanced either way. If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch. So I wouldn't call it broken, just very difficult to balance given the limits of Normal Minis. That's also why you see vigs more often the SKs. And I also find your question rude. Streeflo has been doing a very nice job modding, and I'm sure he worked to get his game balance before he started it up.

Dybeck, two questions, if Orig is the SK then who would you peg as the mafia?
If Orig is mafia, who would you peg as the SK and other mafia?

Yes I too would like to hear something from dybeck other than originality must die. There are at least 3 scum in this game and we have yet to find any.

[shaft.ed]

OK dybeck's recent post has pretty much cemented my opinions of him. I don't think I have enough time to get a reply on it up right now, but vollkan has already pretty much shot his argument to hell.

I really want a clear discussion of the orig situation as I'm really not happy with it right now.

I personally do not want orig to kill anyone tonight, but I see the need to maintain the threat to the mafia. So if we want to keep the threat of a kill open we can either direct the kill or inform originality as to what we think of everyone. I propose both methods have their own faults.

First if we direct the kill absolutely then the mafia know exactly what orig will be doing in the night. This is bad because if it is of no threat to them they can ignore his play. Also bad because if it's a pro-scum move and orig is scum he'd be more than happy to do it.

If we do not direct the kill this threatens the mafia a lot more since they have no idea who he will be killing and are left with much more difficult desicions in the night. However, if orig is in fact not town aligned he can easily select someone that is on the scummy side of people's lists but not scum and get away with that act. So I'm not sure this is a great way to go about it either.

What I propose is that each of us makes a list of their top four candidates for NK in order including No Kill if that is what you prefer. Limit orig to picking from the three most popular options. Thus it is a hybrid directed but not 100% certain kill. This will effectively make the mafia unsure of who will be killed, but also give the town more piece of mind that their will is being carried out. And I'd also suggest that once a lynch candidate becomes more obvious we make two lists one for "if they come up scum" and one for "if they come up town."

How does this work for everyone?

My list as of now is

1. No Kill
2. dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias

[shaft.ed]

Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one.

Dude I'm all for letting orig live through today, but Doc protection? You've got to be kidding me. One of the main reasons I think it's worth keeping him alive is because even if he's scum, he's very likely to cause crossfire.

FoS vollkan

[shaft.ed]

Day 2, Votecount #18!

dybeck (1) - vollkan
originality (1) - dybeck
Lucienne (1) - originality
Oman (1) - Gemelli

Not voting: Everyone else

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

Wow... Even the mod has a list of 4 suspects.

LOL

FoS Streeflo

for listing everyone as your number 1 suspect

[shaft.ed]

It's because they've backed up originality even though failing to lynch him will most likely cause us to lose.

They're leading the town down the doomed path of not lynching originality, and I believe this is because they are his scummates.

They've told us they believe that originality goes out killing obviously protown players of an evening and yet could still be a protown player. For this, I believe that they are mafia. It would certainly be interesting to see

whether originality would bump off his scummates to stay alive

.

There you go with that projection again, glad to see you pulling it back out after it long hiatus from labeling me the SK. Did you eat your hat yet? And if orig, vollkan and I are scummates who's the SK.


AlyG thank you very very much for pointing out Oman adding you to his list. Listing a confirmed tracker for NK is just ludicrous.

vote:Oman

@Elias: OK I realize you may be busy in RL, but we have all noticed you posting very regularly in your other mini. We have been more than patient waiting for you to get caught up. But if you cannot keep up with this thread would you please be courteous enough to ask for a replacement. If I don't see content or a request to be replaced by the end of the weekend I will assume that you are purposefully lurking. Doing so during such a critical period in this game is decidedly anti-town.

I'd like to revise my vig list:
1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. Elias
4. dybeck

[shaft.ed]

Elias, I just did a quick check on your posting activity and you have

17

posts today on your other thread encompassing hours of the day and coming in at about 20-30 minute intrevals. I'm not buying this "I'm so busy" routine anymore. If you're actively lurking stop it. If you truly don't care about this game, crap or get off the pot.

[shaft.ed]

Elias, I just did a quick check on your posting activity and you have

17

posts today on your other thread encompassing hours of the day and coming in at about 20-30 minute intrevals. I'm not buying this "I'm so busy" routine anymore. If you're actively lurking stop it. If you truly don't care about this game, crap or get off the pot.

To be fair, Elias's other game has a set game deadline at Oct. 1st. If town doesn't win by that time, the town auto-lose. I will give him leniency until that time since this game has no current deadline.
That is of course, unless I am asked by a majority of players for a replacement.

Thanks for the input Streeflo. I'll also calm down until after the first.

[shaft.ed]

Vollkan, sorry that I gave you the impression that I think originality is town.

I thought that I'd made my position overtly clear but I do not think originality is town, I think he is scum and needs to die. If you want me to say it again, I'm happy to do so, but I do feel like I've said it a lot.

Nice job of totally avoiding the issue of you stating "the other scum group." Very good redirection there. I'm really torn now on voting between Oman and dybeck. But I still have this tiny voice in the back of my head screaming that dybeck is just being a very stubborn towny that is totally convinced of his own perceptions of the game. Statments like these are very much stifling that voice.

I'm maintaining my Oman vote because it seems that he is very concious of who is on his list, what order they are placed on it, and whether or not the town finds this acceptable. This was a side effect I was hoping for when suggesting the list idea.

In regards to the Orig calculating method. I strongly wish orig to abide by the town's wishes. Therefore I would personally demand that he only choses from the top candidates to NK. While I realize it's possible that we may exclude scum from our top four options, that's a risk I'm totally willing to take. The odds of us including scum on our top four (actually 3 since No Kill is included) will be 75% is we mislynch today and 58% if we hit scum with our lynch. I'd hope by now we're doing a bit better than random chance at scum-hunting.


updated list for tonight's vig'ing activity:
1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias

[shaft.ed]

I would like for originality to have No Kill plus 3 players as his night choices. Fewer players limits our odds of having scum listed and defeats the purpose of allowing the NK option, more players allows him too much wiggle room should he be anti-town aligned and survive the night.

[shaft.ed]

I think giving orig too much freedom actually plays into scum hands. Given his presumably poor decision in killing Carrotcake, the scum may run a "leave him alive" gambit in which they can bet on originality screwing it up for himself and using poor discretion possibly killing a townie. If orig is in fact pro-town, which I am leaning towards, and he gets us into such a situation it's undoubtedly a town loss. Therefore, if orig kills anyone not in the top 3 and they come up town, I'm autovoting. I obviously can't control the rest of the towns votes, but this is my position on the matter.

vollkan, You are obviously the most outspoken opponent of dybeck. I too see a number of scum tells coming from him, but I can also interperet a lot of his play as a frustrated townie that adamantly thinks the lynching of orig is the only logical play for the town. I also find Oman's more erratic and somewhat opprotunistc play to be more what I'd expect from scum given that being as single-minded as dybeck has been can work very much against him, especially if orig were to come up town post-lynching. Do you have any reasons that I should implicitly think dybeck to be scum and not a stubborn townie adamant in his own conclusion? Because as of now I'm more comfortable with an Oman lynch.

[shaft.ed]

Oman, You've stated a few times now that AlyG is not a confirmed tracker. I can only think of one wildly outlandsih scenario whereby AlyG is not a tracker. Since you seem to be more indifferent than the rest of the town towards losing AlyG, care to explain why you don't believe the tracker claim and how do you account for him knowing about orig's NK?

[shaft.ed]

The town here is strong...

*blink* I really cannot see your basis for saying that unless you are mafia

Yeah that last post was just weird. It's like he's admitting he was trying to blend into the woodwork so as to not be noticed as much as he had been with his recent misspeaks. I'm going to put a case together against Oman until tommorow probably. I think he's the choice for today. I'm still quite hesitant to move forward on this without any input from Elias and very little from Lucienne though. So I will wait for him to post/request replacement before making my complete case against Oman.

And Elias, it's past the your deadline, I can see you posting in other-other games now. Seriously if this is too much for you to contribute please say so. You're inactivity is hurting the town.

[shaft.ed]

You say "If we give Orig this much freedom we'd be better off giving him a free hand". What would be the ideal scenario for you then?

I'm still almost certain that originality is scum. And he should be lynched. Blah blah blah blah blah... yeah i know... you don't care any more.

However, if we let him live, we should tell him EXACTLY what to do. That way, we limit the damage he can do if he is scum and, frankly, we limit the damage he could do if he were town. After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town, and still hasn't managed to come up with a single scummy thing his poor victim said, I think it's best that we don't even let a pro-town originality loose with his pro-town strangling-rope that he happened to bring onto this plane.

Failing

that

, the next best thing is to give him free reign. If we give him, say, three or four choices, a scum originality (which, whatever you think about me, you have to admit, is still a strong possibility) is still able to pick any one of them that happens to be town, yet still appear to be doing the town's bidding. If he has a completely free reign, we get a look at how he's thinking, and you can get a clearer idea of how scummy he is tomorrow.

So...
first choice... lynch a scum...
second choice... don't lose an additional pro-town player overnight...
third choice... get some info for tomorrow...

I'm agreeing with dybeck here. I'm going to sleep on it, but I think I would like to specifically state that orig is not to lynch anybody tonight. But dybeck, I don't really see a difference between 3 or 4 choices and free reign (yeah I know I'm the one that proposed the idea). If he is scum, he would be incredibly stupid to off someone that the town majority feels is pro-town.

[shaft.ed]

Oman I'm really not buying your latest overature.

Sorry to do it to you, the idea was that you'd catch scum without me.

The point is, these three posters seem pretty pro-town, and they're doing well. Therefor the town seemed strong enough for me to leave for a day or two.

Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:25 pm Post subject: 47

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Day 2, Votecount #19!

Oman (2) - Gemelli, shaft.ed
dybeck (1) - vollkan
originality (1) - dybeck
Lucienne (1) - originality

Not voting: Everyone else

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

Oman, you've been a suspect for some time now. Don't try to play cutsie, "woops I forgot you guys!" Really not impressed with your recent bout of erratic play. If you are in fact pro-town, saying you're not reading and throwing in scummy posts here and there is decidedly not helpful to the town's cause. And I hope the town is taking note of Oman being comfortable with the big three pro-town posters driving things. If he is in fact scum, one of the drivers is likely his mate. Yes I realize I fall into that group.

(Did enjoy the Discussion read though)

[shaft.ed]

After last night's shenanigans, where he killed someone who was clearly pro-town

If you're going to keep this spewing this rhetorical garbage, can you at least pretend like you have the facts to back it up.

[shaft.ed]

I don't think for a SECOND she was the likely choice for vig

Well... if you believe orig's claim, this is exactly what you do have to think.

And carrotcake was about as protown as it gets. Your scumdar must just be off.

Evidence please. You know like those things Carrotcake did that were "as pro-town as it gets."

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I get your point, and vollkan does to. He's just pointing out that what you've said has very little bearing on our opinions for the reasons he stated. He will go back and forth with you on this for eternity if you are up for it. That's just the way he is about the details. But please continue to speak your mind.

[shaft.ed]

OK Elias, you haven't postd for 8 days, and you haven't posted content for

27

. I'm tired of it. Either get on the ball or ask for a replacement please. It's for the good of the game.

[shaft.ed]

dybeck, what do you think about Oman?

Actually could you just give a rundown of the whole town as most everyone else has been pretty forthcoming about?

[shaft.ed]

dybeck, what do you think about Oman?

Actually could you just give a rundown of the whole town as most everyone else has been pretty forthcoming about?

Dybeck please address the above. We have a very limited window through which to view your opinions of the game. It would be very helpful to the town's decisions to know where you stand on everyone and not just originality.

[shaft.ed]

mod, if more people agree, would it be possible to get a replacement for Elias in the works?

Thanks

[shaft.ed]

If I had strong opinions about anyone else, rest assured that I'd have told you all about it by now.

But I'd hate for you to forget the core message that is "originality is obvious scum and we need to lynch him before he kills again".

I take that to mean you're refusing to give a rundown of the town. To much work to make up stuff on your partners?

[shaft.ed]

It does sound like a lot of effort to express opinions that I'm not sure about to a player who's already made up his mind, yeah.

I'm far from making up my mind on today's lynch. I'm actively considering 2 top teir candidates (you and Oman) and 3 second teir candidates (Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli). I am currently not considering lynching AlyG (almost impossible to be faking his claim) originality (partially believe his claim and am 85% sure he will die tonight anyway) vollkan (too pro-town for me to lynch today, will consider tommorow based on the outcome of the days activities) and myself. I ask for your input because while I do find you more scummy than the average player, I have enjoyed some of your insights thus far so they may aid my decision. And I'm not the only person that would benefit from said information, sharing ideas and insights is generally helpful to the town unless you are mafia and know them to be false. One of the main reasons I ask, is because it is protown to share information and you have been quite deficient in doing such. Your failure to do so has been glaring to me for quite some time and has been a reason that I continue to view you as scummy and not just a stubborn townie. The fact that you are doing so willfully does disturb me.

[shaft.ed]

Yeah I know it bugs you. And I should probably be buttering you up. It seems that

when I respect you

, you go off the idea of lynching me,

Show me anywhere you have respected my opinion and I'll be shocked. The only times I get off your case are when 1) Oman is acting more scummy, 2) you say things that make sense for the town.

and when I shine you on,

you tirelessly campaign for my lynch

.

Find me one time where I have campainged for your lynch since the originality-AlyG claimfest. You likely didn't notice that I was the one calling for a halt on voting while Oman and vollkan where speculating and tossing votes around the majority of which for you. And I did this repeatedly. I seriously don't know why you have fabricated instances of other people's actions this whole game.

But giving you information is counter-productive, since you've apparently

determined to believe the exact opposite of what I think

. So I'm afraid I'm going to have to continue to shine you on and risk the fact that my bandwagon will grow.

The only times I have taken a stance the exact opposite of you are when you are playing careless by exaggerating previous events or flip-flopping your own opinion. And I have always backed up my statements with references to in game activity.

When I think you're really listening, and not just seeking words of mine to twist in order to get me lynched, I'll engage with you.

There you go again. When have I twisted anybody's words. Not even your words, but anybody's words. Please point this out instead of just making up events that have never happened.

It's mindboggling that you think originality, who we know for a fact strangled a townie last night, is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli.

I've never meant to imply originality is less scummy. I've made it quite clear in my previous reasoning that I find his claim to be most probable if he is town. And I find it incredibly likely if he is an antitown killing role, he will be dead tonight. Addintionally, leaving him alive makes it much more likely our outed Tracker will survive tonights hostilities. In my previous posts I have stated I am comfortable running the gambit where we leave orig alive for crossfire bait in the night, and clearly said I am not comfortable forcing this proposition on the town. Others in the town have agreed with this assessment drawing their own conclusions from the positions that have been put forth.

[shaft.ed]

You never meant to imply that originalty is less scummy than me, Oman, Elias, Lucienne and Gemelli?

So originality is what? More scummy? Equally scummy?

Good job once again. Way to ignore everything I pointed out in my last post. I will assume your lack of comment to mean that you do not dispute that you haven't respected my opinion, I haven't campaigned for your lynch, you have fabricated events, I was correct in pointing out flaws in your arguments, and I haven't twisted anybodies words.

In response to your little game of gotcha. If you had taken the time to actually read any of my posts, you would have noticed this list in reply to Gemelli:

Shaft.ed, originality: Who would be your top 2 choices for lynching tonight, and why?

Right now I don't think I have only 2 to pick from. Honestly the majority of the players in this game are coming off scummy but I'll do a short run-down of my impressions listed in a relative order from town to scum:

AlyG: If not for originality supporting AlyG's claim, I'd be screaming for his lynch. AlyG was amongst the top of the heap yesterday for scumminess and started out today on a bad note. His claim on originality reeked of scum, but when originality fessed up to killing Carrotcake I knew he had to be a Tracker. Still holding a spot in the back of my mind for a scum aligned tracker but since this is not likely I've got to believe AlyG as town.

vollkan: Sub'd in for a player that had no content yesterday so he gets a clean slate today. Most of his posts are logical and have the town in mind. However, I'm getting some very subtle scumtells from him, but I don't what to point them out right now because I'd rather him not be able to correct them. If I had to bet on a townie right now it'd be vollkan.

Lucienne: Came off fairly townish yesterday, but hasn't contributed much of anything earth-shattering. Also on the same track today and has become even less frequent in posting due to RL issues. Certainly comes off as someone that is flying off the radar. I get a mild town vibe but very hard to read.

Elias: Biggest lurker of the game adding no content to today's activities. He posted infrequently yesterday as well, but made one or two obviously town moves. I'd mark him as unreadable.

Gemelli: You replaced in for a crazy guy. His play was decidely confusing and possibly scummy but a few of us that have meta'd/played with Dr. BS kind of understood what he may have been up to. So far you're too new for me to get a read. But given that you were starting from a negative I'd lean you on the anti-town side.

dybeck: He rubbed me the wrong way yesterday with his agressiveness, but upon doing a re-read I didn't notice anything overtly scummy. So coming into today I had him in the overly agressive possibly pro-town column. He starts off today calling for my lynch based on one single tell. Then he completely ignores the scumminess of AlyG's tracker claim and calls for originality's head without orig even getting a post in. And subsequently argued "orig killed carrotcake, carrotcake was

VERY

protown, and orig was

totally scum

yesterday so he must be scum." In reality he didn't find orig scummy yesterday and I find it hard to believe carrotcake was the most pro-town player in the game (post on that later). While doing this, I feel he is completely ignoring the ramifications of an orig lynch (ie the NK of AlyG, sending us into LyLo if he is town). Just now after pages of being asked to provide reasoning behind his argument he is starting to look townish. I've got him as scummy and am almost comfortable with a dybeck lynch today.

originality: Played quite poorly yesterday. Gave off a few scumtells, but many of these could be seen as newbtells and was dogged by many people over posts he made in the random voting phase. Starts off today by being outed as a town killer by AlyG. But I believe the claim was probably the worst move for either scum or SK so I'm inclined to let him live. I also think that lynching orig sets up the scum to take out AlyG this evening as it's very likely if orig is SK he will be the target of the mafia (same goes for vig). I doubt he is mafia based on the fact that he a) didn't try to rebut AlyG and turn the claim around and b) didn't claim cop to out the town cop. And I don't think he's SK because he claimed vig which is basically a death sentence in the night. Basically I don't think the town can reliably pin down originality and being a confirmed killing role he is a definite threat to scum which I'd rather them have to deal with so AlyG gets another night of investigation without worry.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket

vote whoever was just mentioned

." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

You will notice at this time I had originality ranked as second scummiest between Oman and yourself. I will say this order has changed slightly in that I find originality more scummy than before since he has omitted No Kill from his list of four targets for this evening (Again one of the reasons I decided to create this method was to set people up for mistakes like this). I've reread Oman and am still not sure about him. He posts in spurts and while he's posting he makes scummy mistakes. It seems he realizes this and then just lurks for a while till everyone's opinion of him cools off. And you have been doing an incredibly good job of looking scummy recently with your usual misrepresentation of reality and making up events that never happened. I'm going to have to reorder my scummy list as:

1. originality
2. dybeck
2. Oman

I'd say you an Oman are tied for a close second here.

[shaft.ed]

Also, I think this is to shaf.ted, but this could be wrong: whoever decided to do the "Top 4" list to kill, why did you choose four, and not, for example, three or five? This wasn't ever really addressed.

The odds of having one in three people on the list be scum is why I chose four (three because No Kill will likely be the number one choice). If we limit it to too few choices then we are very unlikely to have mafia on the list and thus the list is pointless. If we allow for too many people, than there's no point in making the list since it will undoubtedly contain the name of someone and antitown faction would be more than happy to kill. Three people on the list means ~76% chance at least one is scum given the odds of 3 in 8 being scum. This is high enough that we should get at least one scum on the list. The threat of their death is what we are after since it makes orig's killing power a threat to the scum. I personally don't agree with giving orig a NK option, but since the majority seem to want him to have the threat open and I do not want him killing at random given last night I thought this strategy would at least make his NK town guided.

And I agree that we should have two lists one mafia-lynch contingent and one town-lynch contigent, but that idea was shot down without much discussion.

[shaft.ed]

If it's 3 mafia 1 SK and 8 town the town is LyLo with one mislynch.

I don't want to bury our heads in theory, but how does this work?

What I'm saying is if our situation started out with 3 maf 1 SK and rest town we would effectively be in LyLo today given the results of D1/N1. That is starting out:
8 town
3 maf
1 SK

-1 townie lynch, -2 townie NK's =
5 town
3 maf
1 SK

All it takes in this situation is for us to mislynch and the game is over if the NK's do not go our way that being:
-1 townie lynch, -2 townie NK's =
2 town
3 maf
1 SK

Or even worse:
-1 townie lynch, -1 townie NK(SK), -1 SK(mafia)
3 town
3 maf

This is a certain town loss barring any doctor heroics or SK heroics on subsequent nights. I pointed this out because dybeck was saying a 9 2 1 would be a broken game, I think any mini where the town can very well be LyLo after one mislynch is just as broken for the town.

That being said orig is an outed killing roll. No matter what side he is on, he should be killed tonight. If he is mafia the SK(or highly unlikely uncounterclaiming vig) has to kill orig to stay in the game. If orig is the SK the mafia can kill him tonight in order to be certain of either a win if orig kills town or LyLo if orig targets mafia/No Kills.

[shaft.ed]

On the other hand, however, I have this niggling concern that dybeck's actions seem almost too blatantly stubborn to be mafia ..

I'm still not sure about dybeck. He's almost playing like a caricature of what you'd expect scum to be. Blantantly twisting words, fabricating events, constantly exagerating people's positions, and even contradicting his own previous viewpoints with no explanation for the change at all. I keep thinking that there's no way scum would play this blatantly bad, but why would a pro-town player do all of this?

On the other hand Oman is playing what you'd expect of scum. Making more sublte mistakes and being more opprotunistic with his voting. And once the heat got on him he disappeares from the game.

I think I'm down to these two for the lynch today but not sure.

In the threads I browsed on this site before joining, it seemed that the mafia's first N1 target had a roughly equal chance of being an outspoken/skilled player, OR a non-contributing lurker. The theory seems to be that since lurkers don't contribute as much content, they provide fewer opportunities to make statements that can be twisted to create fear and uncertainty. I don't know if I subscribe to that theory or not, but I thought it worth pointing out.

Another reason for this is that scum suspect that powerroles will be more reserved and less on the leading edge of attacks so that they don't get noticed by scum or mis-lynched for being on the wrong side of a lynching. So I've noticed a lot of quiet people get killed early on because they are suspected by the scum as power roles. Also did you remember your reread from yesterday? There was no uber scum threat and the majority of the people in the game came off scummy and as such would be good to set up for a lynch today.


And I agree with the viewpoints of the SK discussion. I think most version of Orig are highly likely to be NK'd, this is a portion of why I do not feel an orig lynch is pro-town at this point.

Not sure what to say about two scum groups. But in regards to the dybeck slip up about the "other group" remember this is a closed game and the "other group" isn't going to know that there are two groups. This doesn't really mean much in interpreting the number of groups. But the word "other" does read into his alignment. I don't recall any normal mini's with multiple groups in my readings.

[shaft.ed]

So would you be happy following a town concensus for your nightkill tonight, if it were agreed that such was the will of the town?

LOL. That was funny.

[shaft.ed]

The Recent Oman Gaffe

Aye, you guys did fall off my radar, I was working too hard on my mini-essay and so I was playing in the games most requiring my attention.

The town here is strong

, and we have lots of players, plus activity is high so this took a back seat (all my C9s got priority ).

Sorry to do it to you,

the idea was that you'd catch scum without me

. I'm going to bed now, (0400) but tomorrow this is my first game I promise

So Oman doesn't post for a while. And understandably states that he was very busy. I totally believe this, he's in a lot of games and a thought out Discussion Thread was posted by him in the interim. But I have issues with the above statement especially the bolded portions.

Rephrased later as:

No its, "we need to find scum, other games cannot do it without me, but teh town here is strong enoiugh without my input".

So in Oman's view the town had been hunting scum very well especially it's active posters (assuming he means vollkan, Gemelli and myself but I'll leave that for him to clarify). This statement was made after his hiatus starting on Sept. 29th, before that he had been quite active in the thread. Let's see how the town was doing at hunting scum, specifically Oman scum:

Oman

: One of the most active players. On day 1, most vote/suspicion posts were directed at pro-town players (myself, VH/ryan, spurgistan, Carrotcake). Tended to support originality day 1, has distanced himself from him starting at (I think) post 434. Has been a frequent vote-hopper day 2, often following up another vote for that player as a bandwagoneer. Currently dividing his attention between dybeck and Elias, with occasional shots at originality. My odds on him:

80% scum

(50% mafia, 30% SK), 20% town.

My final thoughts:
I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess

my suspicion falls back to

the second person who has raised my eyebrows today:

Oman

.

I also am suspicious of Oman's Vote hopping and bandwagonning. His votehopping has been very frequent during the course of this day and he always seems to be following up other peoples suspicions as a bandwagoner.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket vote whoever was just mentioned." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

*Post ranked Oman as most scummy player

Scummy

Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%
...
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

vote: Oman

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices (

for vig'ing

) would be Oman and Elias

Oman -- 75% scum odds

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

Oman: - Probably in my eyes the most scummy player in the game. he has been bandwagonning the whole game. Whenever somene changes their vote and throws around suspicion he is always there to follow-up and always votes for the same person straight away. he is a big vote hopper and always jumps on the person getting suspicion. He seems to be trying to keep pressure on other players which is scummy. her are some examples of bandwagoning:

Long list of examples in post 676

My list as of now is

1. No Kill
2. dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias

To clarify - my main suspicion is Oman. Reasons - major flip-flopping and bandwagonning.

My list:

1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

Ok my list:

1) No Kill
2) Dybeck
3) Oman
4) Meh...Elias

AlyG thank you very very much for pointing out Oman adding you to his list. Listing a confirmed tracker for NK is just ludicrous.

vote:Oman

...
I'd like to revise my vig list:
1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. Elias
4. dybeck

My list:
1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).
...
Wha..!?! You want the confirmed tracker NKed.

Increase HoS on Oman

...
At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today.

Despite how dreadfully he worded this; I think Oman is trying to argue that the fact that he has now replaced AlyG with Lucienne is entirely independent of the fact that he has been called out for having AlyG on his list.

I believe the most appropriate term is "back-pedalling".

So if the town's been so good at scum hunting, and you've been the primary/secondary target of most of us posters, are you trying to say that we're correct in thinking you are scum?

[shaft.ed]

The bandwagoning history of Oman on D2.

So Oman starts to day with a vote on AlyG, a person he supported D1, quickly following vollkan's first post and ode to hurting AlyG.

Vote swings over to dybeck after his attempts at framing me for SK with a single tell don't go over so well.

Unvotes dybeck, then switches back to AlyG since we need to be more safe about the voting due to being in possible LyLo (yeah moving from a person with your 1 sole vote to someone with 2 is really safe).

Unvotes AlyG after the claim. Then immediately revotes after reading the scumminess of the claim post.

Unvotes AlyG after orig's claim.

Votes dybeck the exact post after vollkan's vote

Switches vote to orig after playing with maths (interesting that vollkan follows suit here).

Vollkan votes Oman for calling orig the SK with poor logic.

Unvotes saying it's very soon going back to dybeck or AlyG

Vollkan unvotes and switches to dybeck. The very next post (again) Oman follows suit.

I vote Elias for constant lurking in order to get him to post. The next time Oman posts in thread he votes Elias (seriously do you have a posting restriction or something?).

Oman then unvotes when vollkan points out that Elias stated he wouldn't be pressured.

Then the Oman attacks quoted above come into play calling him out for all these following votes.

[shaft.ed]

Note I'll be LA over the next week, parents in town.

[shaft.ed]

The thing I don't get though, dybeck, is that for all your insistence on lynching Orig, your main concern seems to be preventing him from NKing. You seem to be pushing for us to mandate no NK from dybeck when you should know full well that dybeck will only oblige with that if he is town

I really don't find this hard to follow. If you were sure originality was scum but you could not get him lynched (as is the case here for dybeck) it seems as though the next best thing would be to require him to not NK. Therefore if he is scum he will either 1) be exposed as such following his unauthorized NK or 2) be forced into making a play that strongly favors the town by not NK'ing. I can see this course of action being taken by whatever faction in the game, so I don't see demanding his no-NK as being anti-town as you suggest. I personally would rather this course of action be taken, but am more inclined to give originality a threat of NK so that he gets a target on his back for the night. If I believed orig's claim less (as dybeck clearly does) I am pretty sure I'd be demanding a No-Kill from him tonight.


And what's with all of the switching out dybeck and originality, are you making a slip-up indicating that you and dybeck are buddies in some club that has NK abilities?

[shaft.ed]

How does the math look if we no-lynch?

I haven't done the math, but I would totally oppose a no-lynch unless the numbers are screaming in the towns favor. Reason being D1 gave us no voting patterns due to ryan's BS and a no-lynch will give us just as little information. So the town goes into D3 blind. That seems like a very sketchy suggestion, and I'm surprised you wouldn't run the math yourself before making such a statement just because of how scummy it looks.

[shaft.ed]

So I guess with orig we have these three basic scenarios:

Orig is mafia:

We have to have a SK or unclaimed vig in the game (assuming the latter is not the case). SK pretty much has to kill orig tonight in order to stay in the game. The SK knows this and the mafia know this so our directing orig's NK in any way shape or form is a red herring since orig will not be alive tommorow to answer for it.

Orig is SK:

Mafia may kill orig depending on how immediate of a threat he may pose. This scenario would be the least likely for the mafia to kill in my opinion becuase at least the SK and mafia have eradicating the town in common, whereas the vig's town alignment poses more of a threat. In addition, the mafia can work with the town to lynch a SK whereas they would not do so with a confirmed vig. So this scenario is where a killing list would be most effective since the town wants orig to be NK'd and the surest way for orig to be NK'd is if he directly threatens the scum. Looking at the numbers we are likely at 4:3:1 in wcs. Mafia can then make the game 3:3:1 or 4:3:0 with their night action. The latter is a SK auto-loss so won't be considered. The former could turn into 2:3:1 or 3:2:1 for the SK with a NK. 2:3:1 is totally unwinnable for the SK, and in 3:3:1 he'd need mafia lynch, then NK mafia with mafia NK'ing townie just to make it 2:1:1. In 2:1:1 the SK can only win by either getting the mafia lynched, or by getting a townie lynched and NK'ing the mafia without being NK'd himself (which cannot happen because the mafia know who he is). Whether the townies will help him lynch the mafia is uncertain because they can't win with either a mafia or SK lynch. Their best bet is to force no lynch and hope for crosskills. In any case the SK is nearly certain to lose if he doesn't kill tonight following a mislynch of town. If he kills a townie following a mislynch he loses for certain and if he happens to get mafia (3/7 odds) then he is still in a very difficult situation 3:2:1 where he needs to lynch mafia D3, kill mafia N3 while mafia kill town (or any combination of those deaths) to end up in a prisoners dilemma (1:1:1) which his odds of winning are pretty much non-existant. So in essence with a town mislynch today the SK will have pretty much lost what the SK does will be in desparation to stay alive and hope to get lucky. I don't know if directing his actions will be that informative and they will probably be fatal to the town if he miskills.
*Side note, if it is in fact a 9:2:1 or 8:2:2 set-up the mafia will certainly take down any other killing role in the game so orig's actions would be of no consequence to discovering his alignment or baiting scum cross-fire so No Kill would be in town's interest.

Orig is vig:

Then the town would prefer that he not be NK'd. Also in this scenario we are playing with a simple 9:3 set-up. A miskill after a mislynch takes us to a town loss and after a mafia lynch from a decent chance of winning into LyLo. Here obviously a No-Kill would be the best strategy for the town.

So in reviewing all of this I think it's best to direct orig for an absolute No-Kill. If he is mafia the SK will kill him anyway. If he is SK he's desperate, but I think the mafia would be likely to want him dead (but unfortunately maybe not tonight). If he's the vig he shouldn't be killing anyway. I realize this opens up the threat of losing our outed tracker, but I still think that SK/vig orig can pose enough of a threat the mafia to at least make that decision difficult for scum. And I'm still open for discussion if anyone has alternate numbers to run in the SK scenario.

[shaft.ed]

And regarding my super logical post of why I can't be mafia. How is it WIFOM, vollkan? The mafia would pick someone not suspicious to do their NK, its how it works, period. And I was totally on the spotlight, so it couldn't have been me.

I presonally wouldn't call it WIFOM. There's no way that you could have expected to be detected killing anybody via an unconfirmed tracker. And WIFOM really only works if you expect to be seen doing said action, then you can say "why would I have done that if I were scum?" That said you may have planned to be the killer in advance just in case you were the tracker so that you could then say "why would scum send there most likely suspect out to get caught by a tracker?" But I'd say scum would much rather not get caught by sending in their least suspected player, then have this incredibly flimsy argument in the event you were caught. Also being that it took you 16 or so pages and the towns obvious choice not to kill you to even make this point, I would surmise such a strategy was not planned in advance. But it's a far cry from super logical, just a bit of evidence in your favor.

[shaft.ed]

AlyG, you want an explaination of my bandwagoning? I'm a bandwagoner, its what I do. My playstyle: BANDWAGON! My scumhunting method: BANDWAGON! My favourite colour: BANDWAGON!

I've been lynched for it before, but its like....like....well its like Albert B Rampage's playstyle being absolute insanity, he gets lynched for it, but he won't change it.

I simply feel that pressure from votes is the most effective tool in outing scum. Voting paterns, etc.

That's not a good explanation at all. You like to do it?. It seems to be, you just made that up because you didn't REALLY have an explanation. If that's your playstyle why didn't you tell us earlier when you were attacked for it? No you ignored it, like you have ignored other attacks. And if you are telling the truth look at Shaft.ed's list of your bandwagonning and look at the hole you have dug yourself into. And you never told us you do it for Voting patterns e.t.c. that doesn't help your case much either.

Overall, i'm dissapointed in your response and i think it's far-fetched to be doing this on purpose. I said i would vote for someone and now i am so

Vote: Oman

Actually AlyG, Oman has stated previously that he likes to bandwagon, this all came up in the opening bandwagon of originality with the tiny white text. And if you meta him he bandwagons a lot. But, I feel some of these bandwagons have been opprotunistic especially given his 180 turn on AlyG simply due to vollkan's first analysis post. This was the day after AlyG was getting townie brownie's for not bandwagoning ryan and maintaining his orig vote. That one really set poorly with me. His posting also hasn't been incredibly pro-town but a lot of players in this game are guilty of that.

@Oman, you still haven't addressed my post about your statement that "the town is doing so well hunting scum." I had way more of an issue with this sequence of events than the bandwagoning.

[shaft.ed]

I've got to agree with what Gemelli said above. Even if orig is not a threat tonight, if left alive the town will get two effective lynches for D3. This seems as much or more of a threat than a tracker investigation could be. As such, I feel this leaves the mafia with a difficult enough situation. Adding in the possibility of orig killing just gives him more options for clearing his name while still benefiting himself if anti-town.

So I am officially decided in only advocating a No Kill from originality tonight. I will disagree with any other action, and this is what I personally expect of originality.

[shaft.ed]

@Oman, you still haven't addressed my post about your statement that "the town is doing so well hunting scum."

I happen to think Dybeck is obvobv scum, you guys almost had him, at that point I thought I'd come back to a nice relaxing N2

This really set's poorly with me. If you think dybeck is obv scum, you don't just leave the game thinking "I'm sure those guys will take care of him. Ho Dee Hum."

And as I pointed out in that extremely long post that you have totally ignored, you didn't disappear from the thread until after the suspicion was moving in your direction. So even your faulty premise is incorrect.

Finally, your recent excuse has cruxed on you being overly busy with your plethora of other games. If you're so busy with all of the other games that you can't nail down obv scum in this one, why are you signing up for more of them?

Confirm vote Oman

[shaft.ed]

Can I take a quick straw poll?

Who thinks I'll die tonight?

If you're not lynched today, you will be extremely likely to be alive tommorow, so don't sign up for any new games during the night phase. SK orig is about the only scenario I see you getting NK'd.

Why are you so concerned about dying in the night btw?

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Or dying in general for that matter.

[shaft.ed]

originality, your reasoning is faulty. You seem to think that the people defending you from a lynch believe you are very likely to be town. Most of us, at least me personally, believe you

may

be town but are running with the idea that if you are not town aligned you are quite likely to be NK'd tonight by an opposing anti-town faction. Where I believe dybeck to be wrong is where he ignores this section of the situation and stubbornly insists lynching you is the only play for today. He also twists people's words and associates any person thinking you should be left alive with a scum faction. This is where he is being scummy, not in specifically calling for your lynch.

I personally would like you to explain what makes dybeck a "way better choice for today" than Oman. I know I've been struggling with this decision (or perhaps someone outside of this duo) and would like to know what makes you so sure that dybeck is the scum.

[shaft.ed]

Thanks for getting us back on track Gemelli. Little concerned with recent events. Need time to digest them before I add my input.

[shaft.ed]

OK, as I've said I have problems with both dybeck and Oman. I'm pretty certain now with the dueling bandwagons that they are mutually exlusive as scum, but both may still be town. I'd have prefered this to hold out until Lucienne got off of her LA and the Elias replacement chimed in. Depending on the steadfastness of current voters, this still may be the case.


Dybeck, going to start with you. I found your recent post a bit discomforting. I remember that you have been suspicious of Oman for a short while as evidenced by your NK choice list, where the most recent one has him posited as the first NK choice. What bothered me most about your post was your sudden conviction that of course Oman and orig are scum

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

and your willingness to hammer as the current state of things go. This is regardless of the fact that you couldn't have hammered anyway, the fact that you state you are comfortable hammering worries me. However, dybeck is pointing out a scummy play by originality, his top scum candidate. I don't see anything at all bad about that. But you are again jumping around on your scum groups. If Oman and orig are partners, who's the SK? And finally, I would very much appreciate it if you would come out and give your opinions of everyone. I find it scummy that you would hide these insights because it allows you any leeway you want to jump on available victims without any oversight.

Oman, you continue to ignore my post #882 where I shred your "the town was doing so good hunting scum" comment. Now you come back with this sorry post saying "Gee whiz I'm not voting for obvobv scum Vote XXX."

I swear I was voting Dybeck... oh wait I took it off when we got into the whole numbers thing didn't I?

Vote Dybeck

I'm not buying it. You even make it sound as if you don't care about your own convictions. You mention that you don't even remember when you took your vote off of him. It wasn't during the numbers "thing" it was when you shamelessly tried to bandwagon Elias after I pointed out his non-existance. If you were town concerned with scum-hunting I think you'd care a lot more about why you're voting dybeck and maybe track down the reason your vote left him. When I look back at your case against dybeck, you haven't mentioned him since Sept. 28th when you made your list of NK targets (which included AlyG btw). And your last content laden post on dybeck was Sept. 27th.

Anyway, from the last two pages, Dybeck is actually writing stuff, and starting to look town.

However, I believe this is not because he IS town, but because the town is beginning to share his views (Evident in the Dybeck: Town: sketch). Thus I believe Dybeck to be as scummy as ever, and the town is merely parrallel.

Talk about sorry logic here.
Oman, what it comes down to is I want you to justifiably and reasonably explain your sloppy play as of late, and your comment about us doing such a good job hunting scum at a time where you were neck and neck for the most likely to be lynched trophy.

[shaft.ed]

If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked.

Well be ready to eat your hat when you find out I'm not the serial killer. Your confidence does not inspire me.

[shaft.ed]

lot to say but too busy right now.
I'm LA til Monday most likely.
And Elias welcome back! Hope I didn't come off as too much of a prick in the Discussion thread.

[shaft.ed]

Still don't have time for a content post, but I wanted to repost my arguments against Oman sicne Elias has asked. And I find it very painful that we are getting more of the same, dybeck is still twising people's words about while Oman is still pretty much ignoring everything and hoping this day will just blow over. And I still don't know which I find more scummy. Leaving my vote on Oman due to the stubborn townie interpretation of dybeck's play. Will post full content sometime Monday if I'm lucky.

Two main cases against Oman:

The Recent Oman Gaffe

Aye, you guys did fall off my radar, I was working too hard on my mini-essay and so I was playing in the games most requiring my attention.

The town here is strong

, and we have lots of players, plus activity is high so this took a back seat (all my C9s got priority ).

Sorry to do it to you,

the idea was that you'd catch scum without me

. I'm going to bed now, (0400) but tomorrow this is my first game I promise

So Oman doesn't post for a while. And understandably states that he was very busy. I totally believe this, he's in a lot of games and a thought out Discussion Thread was posted by him in the interim. But I have issues with the above statement especially the bolded portions.

Rephrased later as:

No its, "we need to find scum, other games cannot do it without me, but teh town here is strong enoiugh without my input".

So in Oman's view the town had been hunting scum very well especially it's active posters (assuming he means vollkan, Gemelli and myself but I'll leave that for him to clarify). This statement was made after his hiatus starting on Sept. 29th, before that he had been quite active in the thread. Let's see how the town was doing at hunting scum, specifically Oman scum:

Oman

: One of the most active players. On day 1, most vote/suspicion posts were directed at pro-town players (myself, VH/ryan, spurgistan, Carrotcake). Tended to support originality day 1, has distanced himself from him starting at (I think) post 434. Has been a frequent vote-hopper day 2, often following up another vote for that player as a bandwagoneer. Currently dividing his attention between dybeck and Elias, with occasional shots at originality. My odds on him:

80% scum

(50% mafia, 30% SK), 20% town.

My final thoughts:
I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess

my suspicion falls back to

the second person who has raised my eyebrows today:

Oman

.

I also am suspicious of Oman's Vote hopping and bandwagonning. His votehopping has been very frequent during the course of this day and he always seems to be following up other peoples suspicions as a bandwagoner.

Oman: Started off the game with a very odd maneuver using tiny white text. This got him off on the wrong foot with me. Did some meta'ing and felt this was pretty normal for his playstyle. He set fine with me most of yesterday. While he did get a bit overzealous with ryan yesterday, I pretty much agreed with the reasoning behind the bandwagon that ryan should be pressured for trying to bully dybeck. Since ryan turned out to be an ass, we really got nothing from that bandwagon. Today Oman has been all over the place. Basically any time someone makes a point or places a vote Oman swings his position and says "yeah yeah that's the ticket vote whoever was just mentioned." This is reallyl making me uneasy with him and as of now I'd be most comfortable with an Oman lynch.

*Post ranked Oman as most scummy player

Scummy

Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%
...
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

vote: Oman

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices (

for vig'ing

) would be Oman and Elias

Oman -- 75% scum odds

I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone.

Oman: - Probably in my eyes the most scummy player in the game. he has been bandwagonning the whole game. Whenever somene changes their vote and throws around suspicion he is always there to follow-up and always votes for the same person straight away. he is a big vote hopper and always jumps on the person getting suspicion. He seems to be trying to keep pressure on other players which is scummy. her are some examples of bandwagoning:

Long list of examples in post 676

My list as of now is

1. No Kill
2. dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias

To clarify - my main suspicion is Oman. Reasons - major flip-flopping and bandwagonning.

My list:

1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias

Sigh...

1. No kill
2. Shaft.ed
3. Vollkan
4. Oman

Ok my list:

1) No Kill
2) Dybeck
3) Oman
4) Meh...Elias

AlyG thank you very very much for pointing out Oman adding you to his list. Listing a confirmed tracker for NK is just ludicrous.

vote:Oman

...
I'd like to revise my vig list:
1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. Elias
4. dybeck

My list:
1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).
...
Wha..!?! You want the confirmed tracker NKed.

Increase HoS on Oman

...
At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today.

Despite how dreadfully he worded this; I think Oman is trying to argue that the fact that he has now replaced AlyG with Lucienne is entirely independent of the fact that he has been called out for having AlyG on his list.

I believe the most appropriate term is "back-pedalling".

So if the town's been so good at scum hunting, and you've been the primary/secondary target of most of us posters, are you trying to say that we're correct in thinking you are scum?

The bandwagoning history of Oman on D2.

So Oman starts to day with a vote on AlyG, a person he supported D1, quickly following vollkan's first post and ode to hurting AlyG.

Vote swings over to dybeck after his attempts at framing me for SK with a single tell don't go over so well.

Unvotes dybeck, then switches back to AlyG since we need to be more safe about the voting due to being in possible LyLo (yeah moving from a person with your 1 sole vote to someone with 2 is really safe).

Unvotes AlyG after the claim. Then immediately revotes after reading the scumminess of the claim post.

Unvotes AlyG after orig's claim.

Votes dybeck the exact post after vollkan's vote

Switches vote to orig after playing with maths (interesting that vollkan follows suit here).

Vollkan votes Oman for calling orig the SK with poor logic.

Unvotes saying it's very soon going back to dybeck or AlyG

Vollkan unvotes and switches to dybeck. The very next post (again) Oman follows suit.

I vote Elias for constant lurking in order to get him to post. The next time Oman posts in thread he votes Elias (seriously do you have a posting restriction or something?).

Oman then unvotes when vollkan points out that Elias stated he wouldn't be pressured.

Then the Oman attacks quoted above come into play calling him out for all these following votes.

And I also find his recent "whoops I was supposed to be voting for dybeck" more of the same faux-sloppy play to make it look like he's just not paying attention.

[shaft.ed]

Elias, Quick question about your orig position. Are you considering the likliehood of his cross-fire NK in your voting? If he's mafia, he's auto-dead due to SK, if he's SK he will be a very juicy target regardless of his trusted standing within the town. I really think his likelihood of being NK'd and his ability to draw mafia attention away from our confirmed tracker for the night, make the SK/vig alignment question a moot point for today.

[shaft.ed]

OK vollkan, you have been on the top of my townie list all day long, but your recent posts are very troubling to me. This post is pretty much an affirmation of what Gemelli has been stating recently, but I wanted to put my opinion on the matter our there.

My uneasiness started with this post where a 're-read' triggered a new interpretation of dybeck's earlier post.

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Confirm Vote: dybeck

When I was reading this I was seriously picturing a gentile Southern lady fainting with her hand on her forehead following some transgression of manners. This really felt like an overdone attempt at riling up some momentum for a dybeck lynch.

What really stood out to me was that it immediately follows Oman's content-free vote for dybeck. And it follows this quote

At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote.

where, you're waiting for Oman to "check in" and note this comes immediately after the dybeck post that all the sudden is "chronically setting off all sorts of bells."

You've also managed to completely ignored Oman's incredibly sketchy vote for dybeck. in fact to this moment you have yet to even comment on it.

In fact you've even attempted to cover for him.

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

I've been playing with you in two games for two months now and have never seen you cover for anybody except Dr. BS who understandably needed covering. Importantly there was actual evidence to back up your statements defending Dr. BS. But this comment was quickly shot down by Gemelli a couple posts later.

Then your recent back and forth with dybeck contains really weird slip-ups like:

2) If you are 100% convinced of Orig and "probably" sure about Oman, then why the heck are you not pushing Orig still. There is no deadline; discussion is alive and kicking. Wouldn't it make more sense for you to go for the person that you are certain is mafia so that then, if you are wrong, you might have second thoughts about the "probably" person?

You've already called him scummy on many occasions for maintaining his desire to lynch orig. Now he is scummy because he didn't maintain his desire to lynch orig?

So to conclude, I know these slip-ups are very minor compared to things that dybeck and Oman are consistently doing, but I've come to know vollkan plays at a higher level than this. These moves just don't compute in my mind. I'm a bit worried now of an Oman/vollkan scum pairing, but at least vollkan has been open in stating this is a possibility due to his recent play. I guess what it comes down to is

IGMEOY

I dont think I have time right now, but I'd like to also get an analysis of dybeck's recent play. He's back to his usual uncomfortable playstyle.

And Oman any time you'd like to defend yourself from my post that was made

8

days ago, I'd love to hear it.

[shaft.ed]

Wow you guys get a lot of work done over the weekends, Mondays make my head spin.

I don't have time to address everything I want to today, but hopefully I'll get caught up over the next couple days.

First thing I'd like to comment on is the case against Originality specifically the early posts.
The argrument that he is the one that brought up the topic of "who killed CarrotCake" is false. AlyG first brought this up in his first post of the day.

I've got to re-read the thread now to try and get an understanding of who may have wanted the NK Carrotcake or Spurgistan.

Then I come in and accuse AlyG since the only person CC attacked was AlyG, this was fishy to me

Well AlyG, Carrotcake was most adamant in going after you. I'm surprised you wouldn't remember that.

FoS AlyG

Then Orig comes in and pseudo-agrees with me, but then makes a case against AlyG being the likely killer.

I guess ima go with shaft.ed here, in that carrotcake must have scared someone enough into killing him... So AlyG would be a suspect, but i dont know if hes the only one carrotcake was after, so i will that, post in a min.

Alright, I didnt find anyone besides AlyG who carrotcake seemed to threaten (besides me at the beginning, but that was the beginning ((and he defended me later btw))). However, alyg would have to be stupid indeed to kill the only person against him, way too obvious. Im not ruling out that he did, but maybe something else?

To me this would be a more likely play from a vig since he knows AlyG didn't target CarrotCake, he doesn't want him to be called out for something he didn't do, so he's casting doubt on this argument.

When you combine this with originality not biting on vollkan's intro post and the following attacks on AlyG from myself and Oman, I find this play by originality to at least demonstrate protection. I'm a little surprised that he'd be protecting AlyG after the back and forth they had on D1, but I'll guess that's because he didn't want to see someone falsely accused. To sum this point up, I believe orig and AlyG to be aligned. Since AlyG is very likely a tracker I would propose they are most likely both town. However, there is the possibility they set up this incredibly intricate gambit, but why bother? If they were scum, they'd be in a great position this day with 3 townies going out D1/N1.

OK, the case against dybeck. I have to say reading that whole exchange nearly made my head explode. I was becoming more and more convinced dybeck was scum, and then at the end I saw vollkan unvote. I have to admit I'm getting rather confused in this game. One thing that really stood out to me was specifiacally dybeck's opinion of me as the game has progressed.

Back when I was arguing an orig lynch would be a poor move, I was obv scum and #1 candidate on his NK list. However, once I stated that dybeck may just be a confused townie I'm all of the sudden I am described thusly:

Shaft.ed has looked pro-town all day since then and I think we need to get over this.

*since then refers to the SK eat my hat incident

Finally, Oman god luck with your exams. I've got to say your most recent post has refuted a hefty portion of my argument against you. I must then retract my vote.

unvote: Oman

I'm leaning towards dybeck, but have a lot more posting to do before any votes are made.

[shaft.ed]

Also forgot to add, I personally found Elias' vote for Oman in the early goings a pro-town move. Oman looked pretty scummy after his little stunt and Elias could have attempted a quicklynch on orig. While I realize the quicklynch on orig would have been stupid, pressuring Oman, who looked like scum from his bandwagon vote, was protown. Getting into the bussing and all is just taking this overboard. I don't think you can get a read as to their being linked one way or another if you keep layering your conclusions like that.

So I'd call the play minorly pro-town (one of the main reasons I thought Elias pro-town coming into today).

[shaft.ed]

Finally, Oman god luck with your exams. I've got to say your most recent post has refuted a hefty portion of my argument against you.

I agreed with most of your post, but this last bit caught me off guard. Which post are you talking about? I still haven't seen him refute any of the standing arguments at all.

Not trying to be obtuse here, but Oman's is a case where I haven't seen any real arguments in his defense aside from "I always bandwagon." Face it, we have at least 3 scum among our group of 9 remaining players, and a deadline has been put in play. Are there three players in the game who are acting scummier than he is?

The timing on needing a replacement totally stinks, though

Well, most of my argument was based on the fact that I thought he was not avoiding this game, but simply lurking in order to get away from the heat. He started posting less around the end of last month, and that's when he made the comment about "the town was doing so well hunting scum." That's really what set me off about Oman. I felt his constant avoidance of this issue was him trying to appear sloppy and just wait out the day since dybeck was such a good candidate. But since he's actually asking to be replaced, I can understand him making a statement like that.
While I take issue with his bandwagoning, if you do any meta on him you'll know this is a constant tactic of his regardless of side. In and of itself I don't think it's enough to make a case against him. Especially when I feel I've been giving others a lot of benefit of the doubt due to some gut feelings of mine.

[shaft.ed]

dybeck, I hadn't noticed that you are pushing the idea that orig must be mafia and is not likely the SK. If he is mafia, the SK/unclaimed vig will certainly kill him tonight. Why should the town waste their lynch in this situation?

[shaft.ed]

And apart from that, there's still the point I've made about the possibility of losing if we don't hit mafia today.

vollkan's already pointed this out, but it's incredibly unlikely and pretty much impossible that we are in LyLo if orig is mafia. If we lynch town, the SK has no mathematical way of winning the game unless he kills mafia tonight. Since orig is a confirmed killer, and if he's mafia we pretty much have to have a SK, and the SK has to kill mafia tonight in order to win I don't see the town needing to be at all afraid of orig mafia. Orig SK is the only threat for today, and he is only going to put the town in an autoloss tonight if he choses to kill town, which will be an autoloss for him since he will be incredibly likely to be autolynched if he kills anyone tonight. I'm quite getting tired of you making this out to be a must lynch orig situation when it has repeatedly been shown to not be the case.

[shaft.ed]

vollkan, thanks for the numbers on this. I think it more clearly illustrates a point both of us have been trying to make for a while now, that regardless of originalities alignment lynching him is not in the town's best interest.

His claim was suicide. No matter his role, he is incredibly likely to be NK'd tonight.

If Orig is mafia, it is by far in our best interest not to lynch him. This serves two purposes. First the town can use it's lynch to effectively hunt other scum or at the very least generate leads to go on tommorow. Secondly, OrigMafia means we have a SK. The SK will have to kill orig tonight in order to have any chance of staying in the game. The is a death sentence for orig

AND

it will prevent the SK from killing townies in the night.

Orig being a vig or SK will be of little difference to the mafia. They both pose the same threat in that they are antagonistic killing roles. I think the mafia are highly likely to want to target a killing role over a tracker that will almost certainly be receiving doc protection should we have a doc in this game. Even with accounting for protection, the utility of a tracker is less than that of a killing role. Therefore, killing origSK/vig will be in the mafia's best interest. Again, as in the OrigMafia scenario, by leaving him alive the mafia will be distracted from killing definite pro-town targets. If this NK distraction is not left in place the mafia will at the very least take out a sure townsperson and very likely a powerrole given that 3 vanillas are already out of the game.

I seriously don't see him surviving the night either way. And the numbers show that lynching him is not in our best interest.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, interesting analysis of Oman's D1 there. I have to say, since I was here for that exchange, that I personally found ryan to be the one acting most scummy at the time. While Oman was pressuring ryan quite hard, I hadn't seen the distortion of facts as you point them out here. Have to go re-read some of Oman's D1 content.

To me the biggest strike against Oman is still that he had AlyG on his "hit list." I can't think of any way to reconcile that one. But I'm still seeing the case against dybeck as bigger.

Need to go reread both of these guys....again.

[shaft.ed]

This quote from ryan is really what set off my misfeelings towards him.

I'm not feeling this originality wagon

Ok let me respond to this in a two parter

1) Players who defend another player unless they know 100% they are innocent had better be able to deal with the consequences if that said person ends up being scum

2) WHY aren't you feeling it? I do not like defending somebody with ZERO evidence to why

a) it's a bad choice

b) who's a better one


I'll give you a chance to respond to these before I officially put a FoS on you.

Dybeck simply state that he wasn't feeling the originality wagon, which was pretty much consensus at the time, and ryan just flipped out. (Note the irony btw that ryan's suicide began over an orig wagon argument that dybeck opposed, and dybeck's biggest case of contention also surrounds trying to get orig lynched).

ryan was also blatantly rolefishing towards Dr. BS. While orig's quote game was all sorts of stupid, it was also all sorts of obvious that he had faked the quote. ryan had already stepped in it prior to that whole debacle.

But you are right, Oman did handle it in a manipulative way that I did not notice at the time due to my suspicions of ryan.

[shaft.ed]

OK guys, I can see with Oman's leaving and the originality lynch discussion once again making its logical conclusion things are slowing down. I just wanted to let everyone know I've got two deadlines this week so I'm not likely to be putting up anything super-substantial, but I'll definitely be paying attention. Hopefully we'll get the Oman replacement up and running in time to move discussion along.

[shaft.ed]

Korlash, you are a brave man. We understand the time it will take to get up to speed on this game. We have a lot of bloviators participating in this one.

Again I just wanted to say I'm double deadlined this week and LA as usual over the weekends. So I won't be posting original content until Monday at the earliest. If any interesting discussion points come up, I'll get a reply in for sure.

[shaft.ed]

Vollkan... if I'm completely honest with you, I didn't read your numbers.

You've failed to convince me that originality isn't scum. He killed carrotcake, got found out by a tracker, and needs to hang. That's basically the bottom line for me.

I just want to lynch a scum. If people choose to listen to your defense of orig, then more fool them. We'll just lynch Korlash instead.

dybeck you obviously aren't listening to any of our points. That's why you're so stubborn with the orig lynch. Let me say this again for you.

If originality is mafia the SK

MUST

kill him tonight or he is effectively endgamed. You have said

multiple

times now that originality is very likely to be mafia, if scum, so you really need to come to grips with this point.

Whether orig is the SK or vig makes no difference to the mafia, and a killing role is a greater threat than anything else that has already been exposed.

[shaft.ed]

No I'm saying if you are so sure he is mafia then you should also account for the fact he is certain to be NK'd.

[shaft.ed]

Korlash, nice to see some major new content coming into the game.

I want to say about the numbers that a lot of times that ended up being somekind of weird night time (at least in this hemisphere) session between Oman and vollkan. I'd log in in the morning and see three new pages of numbers and my head would explode, so I feel your pain. The other instances generally centered around us trying over and over to show dybeck that lynching orig was not the pro-town play for today.

In regards to vollkan, I agree with you that I've noticed few weird little tells here and there, and buried in all of that text you've been reading I say this once or twice. He's done some odd things from my perspective, but he's playing far more pro-town than most players so I simply have not considered his lynch today there are far more viable candidates.

Your first point where you say he listed me as sure town, did worry me that I was being buddied up to. This and his very quick attacks on AlyG to start the day had me a bit concerned.

When he brought up the AlyG lynch this did distrub me at the time. But after meta'ing him (the link he gave you) this is a tactic of his, and as he said he didn't vote. It also quite clearly showed Oman jumping in line for this, and Oman also suggested a NK of AlyG wouldn't be a bad choice. In fact, it's also a tactic that your predecessor used (see the Oman bandwagon on D1). So while you yourself didn't do it, the same argument can be made against both of you.

One of the things that has been most troubling to me about vollkan was his constant pressing for originality to vig' kill. I really didn't like this idea and felt it was anti-town especially given orig's choice to kill anyone last night. Also if he is scum this would get him off the hook so to speak. I was never sure if he was saying all this as a code to make the mafia think orig would be more likely to kill than he really was and thus make him more likely to be NK'd than AlyG, but it didn't set easy with me (and that was also a source for a lot of numbers). This is something that I consider a strike against vollkan.

[shaft.ed]

Yes that was another in depth post by the very thorough dybeck [/sarcasm]

[shaft.ed]

In effect, what I was trying to was to tell Orig not to NK in a slightly cryptic way so that I did not have to get rid of the uncertainty element. I knew that it was seen as anti-town of me, but I thought if I maintained that attitude I might be able to stop Orig NKing whilst still being able to keep the facade of it being "uncertain".

This is what I was assuming at the time, but it really can be read either way. And with originality's game quality to date, I wouldn't leave anything to cryptic.

[shaft.ed]

LA over weekends as usual.

[shaft.ed]

Man I'm going to have a long Monday getting back on all this.

As far as the claim, I agree with the headdesk, it was pretty clearly an unprovoked vanilla claim. And this really really really stood out to me:

4) I claimed town for two reasons. 1) I had just come from trying to defend/excuse Oman's stupidity. So I wanted to clarify that I was actually town. And 2) it opened up me "not claiming vanilla or power role" leaving me to agree with

whatever Oman said he was

. (Such as if on page 30 he said he was a vanilla townie I would not have contradicted that, while if he had said he was a power role, hinted he was, or actually claimed something, Doc/Cop/RB/Vig etc, I could continue that.)

So you're in a position where you suspect Oman may have claimed something that is not your role. Is it me or does the most logical conclusion stemming from this statement seem to be that you are mafia?

FoS Korlash

, it'd be a vote if there wasn't so much to read.

[shaft.ed]

I would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck are Nked or gain new evidence for/against them by day four.

dybeck does that change your opinion of Korlash?

Korlash, have you not gotten to the pages upon pages where we discuss the reasons that lynching orig is a poor move for the town regardless of his alignment? And I like the shopping list style of your lynching order.

I'm going to do my read of the weekends post and try to put up one reply. But as these little nuggets jump out at me, it's really hard to let them pile up.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: And I really enjoyed the part about NK'ing me or dybeck. Especially when we've discussed ad nauseum about how likely orig is to be NK'd today. Do you have any reason to belive me or dybeck are likely to be NK'd?

[shaft.ed]

Which one of these things is not like the other? Which one of these things just does not belong?

3) No. I have no fear that you will kill me tonight Vollkan. I think you would much rather kill off Orig. and if not that, I guarantee you would kill off Shaft.ed just in case the VIg kills one of your partners You look completely innocent tomorrow. Killing me tonight would stop me being a good candidate for a lynch tomorrow.

You, Orig, and either Shaft.ed or dybeck. still deciding on the third... Shaft.ed seems to have the links, but Dybeck has the distancing factor working with his obvious scumminess. hmmm, I would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck are Nked or gain new evidence for/against them by day four.

Can we say complete contradiction. First you state that vollkan is scum and wants to kill Orig, or maybe myslelf. Then less than an hour later vollkan is scum with orig and me or maybe dybeck for partners.

[shaft.ed]

In regards to the vanilla claim, I really have to agree with originality on this one.

Why bring it up at all? You were in absolutely zero pressure.

At the time all of the votes had been removed from you except dybeck who has been considered the front runner for a lynch for some time now. Additionally AlyG had just moved his vote over to dybeck moving him back up to three votes and possibly reigniting some pressure on him. Why distract from that with this totally unneccessary claim?

And in regards to the claim I could understand where Gemelli was coming from here:

If you had bolded the portion of the sentence that read "I am town, and logically, with three vanilla's down..." you could have just as easily made the case that he was implying a power role. I mean, the avatar includes the words "100% vanilla," but it also includes a picture of an evil demon thing waggling its eyebrows. I detect a certain amount of sarcasm from the combination.

But Korlash's subsequent comments have made it clear that he was trying to claim vanilla:

And claiming vanilla is THE BEST THING i can do as town

He was purposefully claiming vanilla, but he has subsequently obfuscated his position to the point where it basically means nothing. In doing so he has demonstrated he really really doesn't want to die, and the town comes in second.

[shaft.ed]

Korlash, you're making the same scummy mistake dybeck has been most of today, and I'm sure you read it a few hundred times during your reread. Let me repeat this for you. If orig is mafia, the SK is obligated to NK him or he has lost the game. So, since you state originality is mafia if scum, please explain how lynching originality is an efficient use of the town's lynch today.

And you are the one being ridiculous about the vanilla claim. Now you are admitting "you strongly hinted at it." Yet you label us liars for saying you claimed it. The difference is so miniscule as to be non-discernable.

And here is the exact quote yet again:

I think my avy says it all

Then I read your avy, it says "100% vanilla." It doesn't say

Doc/Cop/RB/Vig etc

So please your attempts at deflecting this ridiculous play onto others are sad. I'm not saying "hinting strongly at vanilla" (ie claiming) is scummy in and of itself, I'm saying "hinting strongly at any role" (ie claiming) without any outside pressure whatsoever is scummy. Stop arguing a moot point.

[shaft.ed]

Korlash,
Sorry about the Orig thing. I misread your post. Still getting used to your writing...style. My bad, just after dybeck and Elias I really really want the town to be clear that it is not the play for today.

In regards to the claim, you are the one twisting my words. You called me a liar for saying you claimed vanilla, that is a fallacy. We've been over this enough and it's distracting from scum hunting. But you never admitted that your act was a claim and when people called you out for claiming under no pressure instead of giving any plausible reason, you just called them liars and split hairs about whether or not you claimed.

[shaft.ed]

You're being deflective again. I never tried to weed out whether or not you're a powerrole. I simply stated my opinion of your post and subsequent obfuscation. What I'm trying to figure out is why you would have felt the need to "strongly hint" at any role from your position. I'll accept that you've explained it the best you can, but it doesn't sit well. If you were really trying to hide the fact you were a powerrole you would have never brought any of this up. My annoyance right now stems from the fact that if you are town, you have hurt us by distracting from scum hunting. But if you are scum you are simply trying to confuse the situation to make us think you have a power role whithout ever having to claim one specifically.

[shaft.ed]

The other quotes from the list seem to boil down to semantics or subjective interpretation, and are not "true" or "false" in any meaningful way. I want the last 30 minutes of my life back

QFT, and thanks Gemelli for calming things down a bit. My views on the vanilla incident are pretty much in accord with Gemelli, and will not be discussed further for now.

Korlash, your response to this was inadequate:

Which one of these things is not like the other? Which one of these things just does not belong?

3) No. I have no fear that you will kill me tonight Vollkan. I think you would much rather kill off Orig. and if not that, I guarantee you would kill off Shaft.ed just in case the VIg kills one of your partners You look completely innocent tomorrow. Killing me tonight would stop me being a good candidate for a lynch tomorrow.

You, Orig, and either Shaft.ed or dybeck. still deciding on the third... Shaft.ed seems to have the links, but Dybeck has the distancing factor working with his obvious scumminess. hmmm, I would rather Lynch the most likely mafia, Orig, today, take you out tomorrow, and hope either shaft.ed or Dybeck are Nked or gain new evidence for/against them by day four.

Can we say complete contradiction. First you state that vollkan is scum and wants to kill Orig, or maybe myslelf. Then less than an hour later vollkan is scum with orig and me or maybe dybeck for partners.

This was the closest thing to a reply I could find.

And yeah, an hour of reading your guy's crap can change a lot thank you very much.

Since this change in your view towards myself going from town likely to be NK'd to scum aligned with vollkan came before any of my posts following the vanilla incident, I have to assume that you found me scummy during your reread. Please provide the evidence that lead you towards this conclusion.

[shaft.ed]

Korlash thanks for the long thoughtful post. I don't have time for a reply right now, but I am glad to see things moving again.

Not to keep hammering you but to answer this:

Also I still want to know exactly how it was my fault the scum hunting was held up...

Basically the "vanilla incident" didn't need to happen and it was a distraction. And if you are town, it's drawn a lot of suspicion your way that didn't need to be there.

[shaft.ed]

Man, I'm losing the vast memory stores that this game used to occupy. I'd have to say even with Korlash's recent postings, I think he's managed to drop about as many scum tells in the last three pages as Oman did in the first 43 pages. But his posting seems to be very stream of conciousness, and seat of his pants. I'm not exactly sure what to make of it, but the list of contradictions is troubling. I'll have to make more time for a thorough analysis. If he is mafia, he's either really really paranoid or really really ballsy.

Also, I'm very troubled that dybeck has been able to completely fly under the radar for the last week. He's even gotten away with a terribly scummy post with just passing mention from a couple players. I need to get back onto his post history as well.

Finally, speaking of flying under the radar, I'd really like it if ETT and Lucienne could add a bit more to the discussion. Your positions seem much more in the middle ground of things and they are also a bit guarded in my opinion. I also realize that AlyG and orig are doing this just as much, but orig has been discussed in great length and AlyG is a confirmed tracker so I am not pressuring them since they will be almost 100% non-lynch considerations for me today. But anything you two would like to add to the discussion would of course be helpful.

[shaft.ed]

And this is exactly why we made all of those posts with the numbers you seem allergic to. If vollkan has already covered this below (haven't read further) I don't care because this needs to be absofreakinglutely clear.

If this comes off as abrasive I'm sorry, but we have both expressed an interest in scum hunting (yes I'm using that line again) and the NK actions of orig have already taken weeks off of this game. I hope this post will be enough to straighten things out.

We lynch town, Mafia NK's town, Orig kills town= 3 town dead. If you lynch Orig tomorrow it is game over.

No we don't get to lynch orig tommorow because we are end gamed, the town has lost. But yeah at least orig got some kicks using his night power on his way to destroying the town.

Now we come to we lynch mafia, Mafia NKs town, Orig NK's mafia. We just turned the tables on the mafia. Would you waste day three killing a known towny when there is only one mafia left?

And the odds of orig hitting mafia in that scenario are going to be 2/6, given his N1 choice, I wouldn't like those odds. Further, even if he NKs mafia we still haven't ruled out SK. NK'ing mafia would be huger for a SK.

Lastly, if we do lynch mafia, they Nk town, and Orig nks town. Then we are

not totally in LYLO I think... maybe not...

Point is, we would not want to waste our possibly last lynch killing a "known" towny right? So I do not see how threatening to lynch him for a Nk is suppose to keep him from NKing... And that is why I am considering the possibility he may NK someone.

How are you "not totally in LYLO." You either are or you aren't. And in that scenario we are. Once again we played with numbers so much for a reason. To determine that the risk of a vig kill are far greater than any possible benefits. Simple breakdown here:

Lynch Town + MisVig =

LOSS

Lynch Mafia + MisVig = LYLO (totally even)

And what I meant with my bolded sentence is that your claim to "lynch if he NKs" seems to me a very anti-town thing, if you actually plan to follow it up.

I could definitely see that as a mafia way to prevent a nk from a vig.

Then again I can also see it as a towny thing to say, I just do not see a towny actually letting 5 townies die this late in the game.

It could also be seen as a town way to prevent a nk from a vig. Most of the town has agreed with this point. If anyone has new objections and reasons please bring them to the fore so that noone is confused as to what is going on.

8 members alive tonight, 3 mafia (unless we lynch one of them today.) 2 already known town, so it comes down to a 3-3 chance of hitting a scum

if you are the vig

. pretty good odds in my book. Granted if we lynch maifa there is less reason to Nk. But I still find it odd you are so sure he wont Nk someone. I mean at least harbor the idea in your mind that he will choose to do his own thing and not

listen to you

. I'm not saying lynch him, but be ready for tomorrow to come and have 2 dead players is all.

I have to say I'm very surprised that you seem so certain that Orig is a vig. You're assumption is quite obvious throughout this post.
I also have a problem with the "listen to you." This may be nit-picky, but in this back and forth you make it seem as though vollkan is somehow single-handedly controlling orig's NK actions. In fact, prior vollkan was lobbying the hardest to maintain orig's possibility of NK'ing. I don't want to speak for the town, but it's quite obvious we have all chosen to prevent an extra NK tonight.

Finally, let's not forget that by getting a possible anti-town killing role not to kill tonight, that in and of itself is a benefit to the town.

[shaft.ed]

You can't predict how I will play. No matter how many games you have been in, no matter how much you have played this game, there is no way you can chalk up how others play this game.

This is completely true and I am judging you by my own standards in this regard, which is why I need comment from other people to tell me whether I am being too harsh here.

You are being too harsh. He obviously questioned your actions. This to me can be equivilant of

AnbodypartoS

for certain players.

vollkan I also find it odd that as soon as dybeck claims, you seem to have no issue with it, no questions for him and jump straight into SK mathematics.

@dybeck, I find your claim to be weak and self serving. Why did you not start out the day against orig and only bring him up when AlyG mentioned his clearly verified investigation results? Seriously, you spent the first RL week of this day without even uttering the word originality. I'd like an explanation of this.

[shaft.ed]

I wouldn't call it breadcrumbing. Breadcrumbing is more of a hidden message in a post that indicates something you haven't stated clearly. Dybeck has been screaming from rooftops that originality needs to die since he's had irrefutable evidence, from other players, that originality killed a vanilla townie. The timing had little to do with when he would have had the information of his proposed night investigation.

And that is an interesting point originality, why would he have investigated someone that during D1 he had no inclination was scum?


On originality's side, I find it difficult to believe he is suggesting a Miller Vig. Oman recently attempted this as SK and was lynched decidedly in a mini. This is pure unadultered silly.

[shaft.ed]

OK, I've not got the time for an elaborate post now, but as of now I don't believe dybeck's claim. I'd like him to answer the questions listed before acting on my thoughts. I also need to run some numbers on the logic of an actual cop/mafia claiming in such a situation. I'm also a bit surprised as to the instigation of the claim, after the L-1 vote was removed this seems like a low pressure situation.

However, I'm LA over the weekends. I don't think I'll get a chance to contribute anything substantial. I will be extremely mad if I log in to catch up on this game and someone is lynched so please do not kill anyone over the weekend.

[shaft.ed]

OK I really really want to post more but not having the time.

I doubt dybeck is lying, he is not so stupid as to do something like that.

I've got to very strongly disagree with this sentiment. In fact a cop claim works out exceedingly well no matter the alignment of dybeck.

dybeck the SK

: He know's for a fact that originality is mafia because he made the other kill. Thus he is 100% certain that his "investigation" result will turn up scum. He also knows that the town already has a tracker so there is a decent probability no cop exists. As for the mafia killing him in the night, can you say doc protection for a proven guilty "investigation." Makes 2 assumptions, but beats the hell out of being lynched.

dybeck the mafioso

: He know's there's a decent chance orig is coming up SK, and given his opinion of Carrotcake, I'd say he'd bet on SK over vig. Thus there is a good chance that he gets a guilty on a SK. WCS in this situation is that he has successfully taken out the town vig, and after his lynch tommorow the town is in a 3:2 LYLO. Best case scenario he has killed off the SK, survived and has the town thinking he's the cop, can you say mafia win? As above if there is a tracker, cop probabilities go down. And again beats the hell out of getting lynched and having nothing to show for it.

On a serious note... Shouldn't Dybeck I don't know... Vote Orig?

This one stuck out like a sore thumb to me as well. I was hoping noone would mention it so we could see how long it would take dybeck to ever move his vote over to the confirmed killing role that he had a guilty night "investigation" on.

It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus.

Please demonstrate this "concensus."

[shaft.ed]

Sorry... >< I wasn't even thinking...

Don't worry about it, the point is clear enough. He didn't even switch his vote until after you pointed it out. The fact that someone would post a guilty investigation and not vote that person speaks volumes.

[shaft.ed]

AlyG, Lucienne & ETT: I would very much appreciate a more thorough description of your views of recent events. Specifically the validity of dybeck and originality's claims and who would be your prefered lynch at this point.

dybeck, I find your lack of commenting in thread recently a bit disturbing. You have a guilty on a proven killer and the lynch decisions seem to be drifting away from your obvious target. Yet you say nothing. Another thing that I find incongruous is that you state that

I'm glad I didn't claim earlier, though. We've learned a lot from today.

Yet you don't point to any of originality's scum buddies. In fact the only scum buddy you even talk about is Oman/Korlash, but this is only conversation to cover you ass since you were willing to support an Oman lynch even though you knew orig to be guilty:

I'm still happy that Oman/Korlash is probably scum. I'm pretty confident that it would still be a scum lynch, and if I hadn't come out, I'd have still thought it was a successful day, because I think we'd have nailed a scum, and I'd be certain of another investigation.

However, a Korlash lynch was looking decreasingly likely,

It strikes me because as a cop one would imagine that you would be afraid of getting NK'd. As such you would really want to get all of your theories out in the open before night phase especially since you've been viewing this day through a different lens than everyone else as you'd have known orig was guilty and thus see everyone's action in a different light. So the only way you're surviving is if our possibly existant doctor protects you, yet you have no mention of your fear of NK and haven't laid out any scum groups. This very much leads me to believe you are mafia and know orig to be a non-mafia killing role, thus you don't need to worry about dying tonight if you get your target.

So would you like to spell out who the scum are for the town? Such input would be very helpful from our town cop.

[shaft.ed]

Please address this.

It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus.

Please demonstrate this "concensus."

I've only had one investigation, so the rest of the scum are anybody's guess.

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you. Don't know yet, but I'll find out. Why? Are you worried?

Glad to see you put a lot of thought into this. Especially the part where you break down contigencies based on if orig is mafia or SK. O wait you didn't do that, becuase you're just making this up as you go along. And no I'm not.

[shaft.ed]

-The Inconsistencies of the dybeck Claim-

The post will document the problems with dybeck's cop claim, hopefully in their entirety. They will be listed chronologically from his actions yesterday to today.

-Why investigate originality?

His investigation of originality is off. While today he has tried to backpeddle with vagueries like

It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday.
...
It was hard to pick a scum, so I went with concensus.

He simply did not find originality that scummy yesterday:

the entire bandwagon on Originality looks like it's based on a dumb thing he said on like Page 1 and his failure to defend himself adequately since then. It has all the hallmarks of a newbie error than a scum slip, and my gut says he's not scum.
...
I'm not feeling this originality wagon

Yet he did find other players scummy yesterday:

This is quite simply the scummiest thing I have ever read in all the time I've ever played mafia.

You're deliberately acting scummy so you don't get nightkilled? And now... when miraculously you don't get nightkilled, this is going to be your excuse for the rest of the game?

No way. No way in the world.

unvote, vote: Dr. "I lie about powerroles" Blackstrike*

...
More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday.

*Side note interesting that he quickly unvoted Dr. BS under the guise of protecting town power roles, another Gemelli link.

So here we have dybeck of yesterday who obviously found Dr. BS scummy and today reffered to Dr. BS and Oman as being scummy yesterday. Yet originality moves way up from being a newbie to the target of his cop investigation. I've given dybeck ample chance to explain this and all he has come up with was that he went with concensus. This concensus simply did not exist. Dr. BS was the largest suspect of yesterday. It would be hard fought to find a concensus for originality's scumminess above other players in yesterdays posts. This really looks like someone trying to pretend to be a cop that doesn't have the insight. Leaning towards SK here.

-Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

This has already been brought up, but dybeck did not even utter the word originality in the first RL week of this day. Instead he hounded me for being the SK based on one single comment I made in my first post of the day. This seems like a great way to start building a case on your guilty investigation. He only begins to scream from rooftops that originality is guilty once a tracker has outed him as a killing role. That couldn't be a coincidence could it?

-Where is your case against originality?

While dybeck claims a guilty investigation on originality he has provided no new evidence against him. His only line of reasoning against orig has been, Orig killed Carrotcake, Carrotcake was a townie; therefore, orig must be scum. All of this evidence has been available to the entire town. The only bit that dybeck has added has been "I'm the cop and he's guilty." If you were in fact the cop and had a guilty claim on someone I would hope that you would be able to come up with some evidence for his guilt that other people had not talked about. Why else would you have investigated him? Thus far you have not provided any mention of originality's D1 play that is scummy outside of the sad vagueries described above. If you are a cop and you investigate someone, one would hope that while you are deciding who to investigate you would obtain plenty of instances where you can paint that player as scum. Even further, one would hope you would bring up these instances when making your case against your guilty claim. I have seen nothing more than these mentioning Carrotcake:

So... originality... did you think of a reason why you targeted our most pro-town player yet?
No way. Carrotcake was actively scumhunting yesterday, and frankly was my absolute first pick for being protown - bar none.
...
If I'd been scum, I would have targeted him. If I'd been the doctor, I would have targeted him. If I were the vig, I most certainly would not have.

However, I have already demonstrably refuted the fact that Carrotcake was an incredibly protown player. He made

ONE

scum hunting post out of his total of

NINE

posts. (Complete analysis in post 617)

-If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

This has also been mentioned, but if you have a guilty investigation why are you so supportive of an Oman lynch? Instead of finding other scummy actions of originality yesterday, or providing any evidence other than "orig killed carrotcake" you decide to just take out someone else you feel is linked to him. Yet he's not even the greatest link to orig, that'd be vollkan. Here's the quote for posterity's sake:

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

-Why did you claim prematurely?

We've just seen all of the heat Korlash took when he quasi-claimed prematurely. You did the same claiming from the heat of L-2.

-Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

The most obviously wrong aspect of your claiming post was the fact that you

didn't even vote for originality

. It seems that coming out in such a situation one would want to get votes moving in the direction of your guilty target. Yet you neglected to do so, were you flustered when making up content for that post?

-Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

For someone who has played the entire day under the knowledge that one person is scum and those protecting him are quite possibly his partners, you've added no information as to what playing from this angle has done to affect your theoretical scum groups. This should be the top priority of an outed cop because without knowledge of a doctor in the game you should be dead overnight. One would very much expect you to be providing your likely scumgroups based on orig's alignment especially since we know that he could come up SK or mafia. Your recent attempt to do so can best be described as lacking, and is fitting with your inclination towards hunting scum throughout the day. All you've said is:

I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you.

How in the hell does that help the town?


In case it isn't clear I don't believe dybeck's claim in the least.

[shaft.ed]

As far as who to lynch today, it has to be dybeck or originality. I don't know why other peole are supporting other somewhat random townies for lynch, especially one who is such a fan of numbers.

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered. Also even if we hit SK putting us in LyLo this is better than hitting town and being in 3:2:1 if we have a nonOrig SK.

I also posit that lynching dybeck has the possibility of providing more information of originality's alignment than lynching origanilty has on dybeck's alignment. If we lynch dybeck he comes up SK, we know orig is mafia and can then autolynch tommorow. If he comes up mafia then we know orig is either vig or SK. If he comes up town (which I doubt given his horrible cop claim) then we know orig is scum of some sort. If orig comes up mafia or SK we still don't know if dybeck is a cop becuase he could easily be faking the investigation given the info AlyG provided. If orig comes up vig we know that dybeck is either mafia or SK faking cop.

[shaft.ed]

Damn it I knew I would miss something on my dybeck analysis. This goes under the

Why hammer someone else

section.

Not only did dybeck offer to hammer Oman, but he very flippantly votes Korlash one day after he replaced in for Oman, and when he only has one other vote on him (that being Gemelli interestingly enough). That's what we call dedication to our night investigation:

No I'm saying if you are so sure he is mafia then you should also account for the fact he is certain to be NK'd.

OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow.

unvote, vote: Korlash

[shaft.ed]

ETT, that's a good point. I don't think simply calling someone a lurker warrants calling them scum, but more input would be nice especially at this juncture. As such

AlyG, Lucienne & ETT: I would very much appreciate a more thorough description of your views of recent events. Specifically the validity of dybeck and originality's claims and who would be your prefered lynch at this point.

I know you touched on this last post in regards to dybeck, but a reply would be much obliged.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I agree with a lot of your points, but not to the extent that you are taking many of them. Vollkan has been moving about on his opinions of players, but generally he has been doing so following discussion. His posting frequency seems very high and he does a lot of scenario listing in which he puts down things like If X is SK than Y is town. Of course you're going to find a lot of back and forth on ideas. But I do agree he has been using wording that makes it seem his analysis is gospel.

In regards to him disproving dybeck's argument, I think you two are talking about different things. You refer to dybeck's argument as "Orig is scum because he killed CC." Vollkan refers to dybeck's argument as "Orig needs to be NK'd because he killed CC." there is an important difference. Vollkan and my numbers have shown that an orig lynch is a poor move because he's very very likely NK'd tonight. That means his lynch is a poor choice. This is what disproves dybeck's argument that orig needs to be lynched, not that orig is or isn't scum.

In regards to him being swayed by my opinions, I have also noticed this, and have been worried by it. I can attribute it to vollkan being scum trying to buddy up to me, or the fact that I make really good points . Since the rest of the town seems to think I'm doing a pretty good job, I think chalking it up to the latter is reasonable, but I do have vollkan as scum on my back burner.

As far as your statement that vollkan noticed dybeck giving off cop tells. I would hope that you can spend some time reading my recent post. If anything I think dybeck was giving off anti-cop tells. Please let me know what you tink of dybeck's claim in light of my evidence.

The weakest part of your argument, Gemelli, was the possible scum groups. I see absolutely no reason to include Lucienne in fact orig and vollkan just recently tried to get her lynched. And Korlash is also a pretty weak association given the dust up surrounding the "vanilla incident."

In conclusion I see the most likely scenario by which vollkan is scum as follows:
dybeck: SK/cop
originality: must then be mafia
vollkan: then obviously linked to orig

I should note that I do not find the above scenario most likely, but it is the most likely scenario should dybeck turn up non-mafia.

And yes I understand completely that I would also be linked to an orig/vollkan scum group.

[shaft.ed]

In regards to him disproving dybeck's argument, I think you two are talking about different things. You refer to dybeck's argument as "Orig is scum because he killed CC." Vollkan refers to dybeck's argument as "Orig needs to be NK'd because he killed CC." there is an important difference.

I assume you meant "lynched" instead of "NK'd" there? But I think you've hit the nail on the head. I have believed that orig is scum since I joined the game, and some of my suspicions are based on the perception that Vollkan has been attacking THAT premise.

Yes I meant to say lynched there not NK'd, vollkan and I were actually pushing for an orig NK. I personally haven't seen vollkan actively asserting orig has to be the vig. He has posted many times that orig may be the vig. But your analysis does bring up some instances where vollkan has waffled a little bit, I have taken note. However, the main reason he has been arguing to keep orig alive is that if he's scum he's dead. If he's SK he's still a big mafia threat and a good candidate to be targeted, which is a very nice thing to have with one of your power roles out in the open. The vig aspect has been secondary.

As far as who to lynch today, it has to be dybeck or originality. I don't know why other peole are supporting other somewhat random townies for lynch, especially one who is such a fan of numbers.
...(shortened to keep this from being the longest single page in MS.net history)

That is exactly what I was trying to say back in post 1199! Of course, Vollkan FoS'd me for saying it (even bolding the sentence where I say what you've just said), but he was most likely influenced by the myriad scumtells I've given off today (Yeah, yeah, and you provided a better explanation. I'm just pissy today.)

You have every right to be mad at this. I should have done this at the time but

FoS vollkan and originality

for the Lucienne side track

I also posit that lynching dybeck has the possibility of providing more information of originality's alignment than lynching origanilty has on dybeck's alignment. If we lynch dybeck he comes up SK, we know orig is mafia and can then autolynch tommorow. If he comes up mafia then we know orig is either vig or SK. If he comes up town (which I doubt given his horrible cop claim) then we know orig is scum of some sort. If orig comes up mafia or SK we still don't know if dybeck is a cop becuase he could easily be faking the investigation given the info AlyG provided. If orig comes up vig we know that dybeck is either mafia or SK faking cop.

This type of analysis makes sense to me. Like you, I think it is entirely possible that both are scum, and hugely unlikely that they are aligned with each other.

I am also coming around to the argument that lynching the SK today would be bad for the town. That being said, if we are going push to lynch dybeck, we are all expressing a degree of confidence that dybeck is not the SK. Fair?

So really, if we are choosing between two targets, we have to ask ourselves: (1) which one will give us more info about the alignments of other players, and (2) which one offers the smallest risk profile for the town in terms of the scum night actions?

I have a ton of opinions on this topic, but I really don't want to let the cat out of the bag until the lurkers weigh in.
That being said Lucienne, and AlyG I'd

REALLY

like to hear from you soon we're approaching deadline and the town needs to be on the same page.

Also dybeck would you please attempt to defend yourself, it's the cop-like thing to do.

[shaft.ed]

I find it funny you keep ignoring what me and Elias are doing..

I find what you are doing a waste of time and thread space. You are arguing over who is posting more content, while not adding to the discussion. I've got to applaud Elias here for just walking away, as there seems to be no point in continuing. The only relevant interpretation of it I can see is two scum buddy's distancing themselves, aside from that I'm largely ignoring your comments on the matter and skimming in case there is any relevant content.

[shaft.ed]

In regards to him being swayed by my opinions, I have also noticed this, and have been worried by it. I can attribute it to vollkan being scum trying to buddy up to me, or the fact that I make really good points

Whenever you have been at odds with me on something, you have argued your case in the proper way: By proving that I am wrong or am overlooking something. It's more a compatible playstyle thing than anything else. Your style of argument is the sort that I respect.

I can understand that. In our games together I feel quite comfortable with your content and posting style making me assume your towniness. I find this dangerous, but it seems inescapable as its some sort of synergistic playstyle thing. (Note to self go meta some vollkan scum games)

This is true

AlyG, Lucienne, dybeck - POST!

QFT

[shaft.ed]

Are people (well... Korlash and shaft.ed) still waiting for responses from me? Can your questions be put, BRIEFLY, in one post? Like... as briefly as you possibly can. I've read too much rubbish in this post already.

Definitely something a cop would say [/sarcasm]

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I don't mean to be beating a dead horse here, but these two posts are fundamentally different, and being of a similar playstyle to vollkan hopefully I can explain why I think you got called out (yes I know another addition of shaft.ed and vollkan speak for eachoter).

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point. , for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Here you do clearly point out that ONE of the two is the correct lynch for today, but you haven't explained why that is. Also you lead in the first logical premise with what should actually follow. If you had strctured this a little differently I don't think it would have had the same reaction. So start with "I think that ONE of them is the right play today" and also explain why (you didn't do this). Then add in all of your reasons why one is a better choice than the other. The way you've set it up you hardly even notice that you are saying dybeck and orig are most likely scum even with the ONE bolded, and again you didn't explain why you just said you

think

it's the right play.

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered.

This post has no assumptions. It states clearly that dybeck and orig have a higher probability of being scum than anyone else in the town. Then down below I start building a case for my choice between the two.

I'm not trying to implicitly say one of these is clearly better than the other, but vollkan and my brains appear to be wired very similarly. Since this seems to be very much bugging you I hope this gives you a little understanding as to how things went down.

That said I do think vollkan over-reacted and your being upset was justified especially since vollkan bolded the part of the quote that was the least subjective in order to present his argument.

[shaft.ed]

You have every right to be mad at this. I should have done this at the time but FoS vollkan and originality for the Lucienne side track

Do you mean my vote for Lucienne here?

If so, you have obviously missed the fact that it achieved all that I really wanted it to. I've hinted at this before, but a primary motivator for me was seeing what Orig's response would be.

If you're going to run these gambits you have to be prepared for how scummy they will make you look.

[shaft.ed]

I am not ignoring your numbers. As I've said, the numbers look reasonable to me. But as a newer player, I do not want to assume that your numbers represent an ironclad pro-town strategy. I have been asking questions and thinking of possible scenarios in which those numbers could be pro-scum simply because I DO NOT HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO FULLY EVALUATE THE NUMBERS ON THEIR OWN MERIT.

I know many players seem to be allergic to numbers, but would you like a simple numerical explanation of the situation? Maybe we can do this with three simple lines.

[shaft.ed]

Please whatever you do, do not stop posting. That's absolutely the most important thing.

I endorse this product.

Also Gemelli, if it makes you feel better, should originality come up scum you've given me a bunch of new reasons to suspect vollkan. You're posting has not been wasted, I've just been avoiding the back and forth because I'm not a big fan of jumping into such issues.

[shaft.ed]

Well this is certainly the reply I have expected and been waiting for. I had hoped some of your scumbuddies would check in prior, but I think it's fairly obvious know your lying and flying by the seat of your pants.

I've answered like all of these... but I'll run through again.

Way to start off with a lie. You haven't answered any of these questions. Why else would we have been sitting on our thumbs the last three days discussing game theory and whether or not Elias or Korlash were contributing more to the thread. Because we've been waiting for insight from our cop.

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

I already pointed out two posts where you clearly stated yesterday that you did not find originality scummy. I also pointed to instances where you clearly state the Dr. BS is obv scum. This is a clear contradiction. Then you come in with this BS about if you were lying you'd claim on a dead guy. You've already had the investigation done for you by AlyG. That's clearly a more convenient route for you to take. At least you already know the guy is a killer.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

I didn't say "why didn't you out youself as cop and finger orig" I said why didn't you bring up his scumminess. If you had his buddies would have likely been defending him. Instead you chase me around as an obvSK now I'm and obvScum.

3) Where is your case against originality?

I don't need a case. I have a rock-solid investigation. If you wanted a case against him, you could try reading EVERY SINGLE POST I WROTE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

If you were a smart cop you would actually have a case against originality. Instead you need a tracker to point out he's a killing role and to out yourself with a guilty investigation to make your case. EVERY SINGLE POST you wrote in the first half of this day was not a case. You were simply repeating over and over that ORIG KILLED CC!! DIDN'T YOU HEAR ME. You do need to point out subtle scum tells if you want to get the town to lynch someone, unless of course you like being an outed cop. And according to your post above:

I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was.

You know, your case would likely include why orig was likely to be a lynch candidate. Didn't see you present any of this evidence when trying to convince the town.

4) If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

Because Korlash is almost certain scum too.

When did Korlash because almost certain scum?

5) Why did you claim prematurely?

I thought I was at L-1. My mistake. I'd been itching to do it for ages anyway.

Wow something I actually believe.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

I didn't as why you didn't vote for him all day. I asked why you didn't vote for him in your claiming post. This is an indication you were flustered while writing it.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

Actually no you haven't listed me in the scum groups a lot:

That's not the list I'd give now. I think it'd look more like:

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

Once I posited the "dybeck may be a frustrated townie" theory, you backed off on me and started listing me as town. Then vollkan was on the list alone with Oman, the convenient other suspect of the day, and Lucienne. I like how you're fabricating things again, makes my job a lot easier though.

Now for some of my own:
8) What is your scumdar? I want names, at least one sentence per person and a % ranking.

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

Again I really like that flip between myself and vollkan. He's been much higher on your late day lists than I. And nice in depth explanations there. Your contribution is noted.

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

Desperately, hahaha. I really like that one. Show me anywhere I have desperation in my posts. Also, vollkan is quite clearly the most vocal anti-orig lynch player right now. In fact he just

FoS'd

Gemelli for the suggestion of it. But that's right he's only 20% scummy.

10) Why did you claim cop despite me having made it patently clear that lynching Orig was a bad idea? By this, I mean that all you did was needlessly out yourself if you were cop. If you were in real peril of lynch, then fine, but you weren't.

Lynching orig is not a bad idea. That's something shaft.ed has made you believe. The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

We need to lynch orig.

Again I am not the only one positing numbers in this game, and vollkan was the strongest supporter of "don't lynch orig." I find it very funny that you are so blatantly contradicting your own argument. And again the maths show, that if the SK hits town it's game over for him too. Why would he want his game to end?

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Good thing we found you

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

Korlash is playing this town? Are you joking ? The guy came in to replace with little suspicion on him and almost got lynched for claiming vanilla and he's playing the town? Since then he's been bantering endlessly against Elias and vollkan over minutae that are incredibly tangential to what's going on and he's playing this town.

If you want to call people playing this town as those advocating against an orig lynch, as this seems to be your scum theory, then you would be hard pressed not to include vollkan in there. I'm really at a loss as to where Korlash comes into this. I suspect dybeck is trying rather poorly to garner some favor from vollkan. Doing so with such logical inconsistancies is bound to fail.


I'll get some numbers up in my next post.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, sorry to not follow your suggested format, but I've been rolling this over in my head for a few days now. I'm looking at the lynch much more from the angle of what does the town get out of this?

Lynching dybeck:

If dybeck is mafia:

This is, to me, the best possible outcome of today for the town. First of all, we have taken out a mafioso, which is the top priority of the town. Second, the mafia will be reduced to 2 or possibly even 1 member depending on the setup. As such a confirmed killing role will be a serious threat to them and I believe this will force their hand to killing orig. Although we obviously aren't garuanteed this outcome, it is much more likely than if there are 3 surviving mafia. While this could hurt the town if orig comes up vig, it at least removes the SK threat. Town goes into tommorow with a likely 5:2:0 ratio, wcs 4:2:1. Likely dybeck partners in this scenario would be Gemelli (self-professed), Lucienne (quick orig vote after cop claim) and Elias for this:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

Likely town would be AlyG (confirmed tracker, maintained dybeck vote through claim), Korlash (two L-2 votes on dybeck and dybeck's claim of Korlash being scum), me (I prefer a dybeck lynch, picked apart the cop claim and am being OMGUS'd by dybeck now).

If dybeck is the SK:

This is not such a bad scenario as orig the SK would be. Here we have lynched the SK, but we know for certain that originality is scum. We open D3 with LYLO but we know the identity of one scum and have leads on the others. Scummates to orig would like be vollkan (self-professed very protective), me (self-professed also anti-orig lynch) possibly Korlash (mildly protective of orig, happy with dybeck lynch), AlyG (not freaking likely but if they're crazy and set up this gambit from the begining, will depend on AlyG's tracking results tommorow). Likely town Gemelli (dybeck supporter earlier, favored orig lynch after claim, devil's advocate for dybeck of late).

If dybeck is cop:

I won't lie this would be a very bad situation for the town. We will know that orig is SK or mafia, but we will lose if we lynch him as SK the next day. We will also lose if the SK NK's town, but so will the SK so that should be ruled out. Likely scenario if this happens is town going into D3 in 3:3:1. If orig is mafia (which we won't know) scum group should be similar as above vollkan, me, maybe Korlash. If orig is SK I'm not really sure, but keeping the SK alive and lynching town is the best possible result for mafia today I would strongly suggest lynching myself or vollkan tommorow if this is the case. I'm not really sure what the scum groups would be in this scenario but as I said I think me or vollkan should by lynched in this instance. But we won't know if orig is SK or mafia.

If dybeck is vanilla:

This would be both incredibly stupid and quite bad for the town results the same as dybeck cop, but maybe a little less suspicion on me since I've been much more suspicious of dybeck since his very bad and very opprotunistic cop claim.

End result is if dybeck comes up scum, the town has a very good chance of recovering. If he comes up SK, we're in LYLO but have outed one scum and have a lot of leads on his mates. If dybeck comes up town we're in quite a tough spot. So we should at least be sure we find him as scum. Given his lousy cop claim I am very inclined to call him scum 85-90%.

Lynching originality:

If orig comes up mafia:

This scenario is good because as we've stated again and again lynching scum is the best outcome for today. The difficulty will come in from what about dybeck? If he's the SK he's known ever since the AlyG tracker incident that originality is mafia (any light bulbs going off?). Thus he knows his cop claim will be substantiated once orig dies. But dybeck could also be our incredibly incompetent cop. We won't know come tommorow which is the case. Since the SK has not been outed I find it more likely he will kill if orig is lynched as mafia thus we have a lot of possible D3 outcomes:
3:2:1 (59.52%)
4:1:1 (35.71%)
5:1:0 (4.76%)
So we have a larger chance of being in a very precarious LyLo, with some decent scenarios stemming from the SK NK getting lucky. Orig's scummates are similar to above. I'd still say dybeck is the likely SK, depending on his results tommorow, and maybe one of the lurkers or Korlash could fit here.

If orig comes up SK:

This scenario is not optimal and we've talked about it at length. Lynching the SK, puts us in an assured LyLo tommorow. Even worse, we still don't know dybeck's alignment and he could easily be running a fake cop gambit betting on orig coming up SK. At the very least he has lynched the vig and gotten the town into LyLo on his way down. I'm not sure who the scum groups would be here either because they could either align with dybeck, or against dybeck.

If orig comes up vig:

If orig comes up vig, we know dybeck is lying and we know there is not a SK in the game. Thus the town will be in LyLo tommorow (4:3) and have an outed scum in dybeck. We'd also have links to go on. This scenario is similar to dybeck turning up SK.

In summary, I still think dybeck is the more logical choice. We get an almost definite alignment of originality following the lynch and are left with a very clear picture of the field tommorow. Lynching orig gives us no information into dybeck's alignment unless he has tricked us into lynching a pro-town power role.

I also find dybeck's claim to be more scummy. I'm almost certain now that he is lying, and if he is the cop he's doing the town a horrible disservice with his current play. He still refuses to build a case against originality that amounts to anything more than what we all heard from AlyG at the very begining of the day. And now that he's been asked for a scum list it is incredibly inconsistent with his reasons for people being scum listed in the post and also inconsistent with what his sentiments have been towards the end of this day. As it stands I am very ready to vote dybeck, but I will wait for others to weigh in their opinions.

[shaft.ed]

The reason I haven't been contributing much is that the discussion here is whether me or dybeck is lying. I already know the answer to this. And we should lynch dybeck.


Ok, here's something: If dybeck comes up cop or not, you guys can be sure of my alignment (or at least if I'm mafia or not). If I am lynched, you lose a vig, but you don't know that, so: You could tell if I was scum or not, but could NOT tell if dybeck is scum or not. Someone tell me a good reason not to lynch dybeck.

Originality, you really should try to read what's being posted. I've covered this and then some in a very recent post. And if you're lynched and come up vig, we will know that dybeck is scum. Even this sparse analysis is off. The scenario by which we aren't sure about dybeck is if you come up scum, because then we know there's two groups (likely maf and SK) but we won't know if dybeck is a genuine cop or other scum.

[shaft.ed]

EBWOP: Orig, while you're here could you give me two scenarios since you run the risk of being dead tommorow one way or another:
If dybeck is lynched and turns up mafia/SK who are the likely mafia/SK and why?
If you are lynched and come up mafia/SK who are the likely mafia/SK and why?

I know I'll be hearing from Korlash later today (and likely hearing a lot), but AlyG you're the closest thing we have to a confirmed townie, thoughts would be awesome. And it seems Lucienne is likely on her way to being replaced so I guess we shouldn't expect something before deadline. (the family stuff sounds quite bad btw, hope it goes well for you)

[shaft.ed]

Vollkan, thanks for correcting my numbers, hard to keep track of the SK/noSK outcomes without it getting too complicated.

You weren't listed in my scum groups there because I simply forgot. I'd obviously put you on the originality side. There's a small chance you could be bus'ing dybeck but I'd strongly doubt it. Also given some of your interactions with Oman there's a chance you could be aligned with Korlash should either of you come up scum.

Also I think I forgot to mention that if orig comes up mafia Lucienne is very likely non-mafia given his willingness to vote her.

Finally, thanks for adding in the points about cross-kills. I neglected to add them into the scenarios and that would vastly change various outcomes should there be a non-dybeck non-orig SK, again in favor of a dybeck lynch.

[shaft.ed]

If dybeck comes up cop, all we learn is that Orig is either mafia or SK.

Mislynch = 4:3:1
MafNK town = 3:3:1 LsaL (Lynch SK and lose)
--SK NK town = 2:3:1 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 3:2:1 Messy
MafNK SK = 4:3:0 LYLO
--SK NK town = 3:3:0 LOSS
--SK NK mafia = 4:2:0 LYLO

Actually I was thinking about this and we will still have a good shot of knowing originality's alignment even if dybeck comes up cop. As we've said repeatedly, the SK very much needs to NK mafia. If dybeck is cop and orig is mafia then we are garuanteed a SK in the game that almost definitely attempt to NK orig. Only ways that this doesn't happen is if orig is a NK immune godfather or if the mafia have some type of Doc or roleblocker that has found the SK in the game. While these scenarios are plausible, I don't find them likely. So if orig does survive the night after the dybeck cop claim, I'd find it quite likely he is the SK.

So if orig is mafia and dybeck is in fact the cop we're likely to be in 3:2:1 or 4:2:0. If orig is the SK in this situation hopefully he would have noticed the thousands of times we pointed out a miskill ends the game for the SK and we'll end up in 3:3:1 or 4:3:0.

Gemelli, in regards to the 4:2 being LyLo, I'm with vollkan I generally disregard No Lynch's. But you are right 4:2 is a better situation than 4:3, because not only is a No Lynch possible, but if you get a lucky vig target or Doc protection the game can survive a mislynch.

If I'm not the cop, will the real cop please come out and counterclaim

so that we can all see my fake claim for what it is

?

Nice last try at rolefishing. And interesting wording there.

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

With a tracker and a possible vig, there's a chance we don't have a cop in the game. But as vollkan said, they are incredibly common in mini's.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I feel you've been playing quite pro-town as of late but when reading these two quotes next to eachother it really looks to me like you're trying to help dybeck play find the cop:

If I'm not the cop, will the real cop please come out and counterclaim so that we can all see my fake claim for what it is?

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

While it's quite unlikely that a possible unclaimed cop would step forward due to either of these posts, it seems mafia may attempt to glean some information as to the cop-iness of a player due to their reaction (or lack there of) to the above posts. I'd suggest that further discussion of cops should cease in case we have an unclaimed cop. Some of our townies are a bit loose with their posting.

[shaft.ed]

Gemelli, I understand that's the way I read it the first time too, just felt a little differently when taken in the context of dybeck's post.

I'm going to be LA over the weekends as usual. While I'd like to see AlyG and Korlash post something before the deadline, it's more important to me that dybeck be lynched for the reasons that I have outlined at length in the last couple pages. To make sure the pressure stays on him over the weekend I'm going to add my vote.

vote: dybeck

As I hinted at above, I won't object to someone hammering, but I'd like it if AlyG or Korlash could weigh in first.

[shaft.ed]

Bah I thought I over did it. GO TOWN!!1!!eleven!!!

[shaft.ed]

Awesome game guys. I'm just curious how many people knew I was the cop going into N2. I knew I laid it on pretty thick but was a little less concerned than I should have been given a claimed Tracker and Orig killing poeple and all. I was really close to claiming just so that I could clear up the Orig issue, but ABR did that for me. Also I'm not surprised you didn't find my breadcrumb, it was seriously buried:

Yeah shaft.ed, I'm so glad that my entire scumplan was to vote for AlyG after I planned that he make a horrible post and then stay there. My oppertunistic scumplan is gettin him under serious pressure.

:eye roll:

My apologies. I just did a reread of Oman's posts and he is absolutely right. I thought

originalty he was town

and my reread reinforcd that.

I've got to say my AlyG impression is looking worse after this last reread.

Waiting to here from some of the other players in this game. Particuarly Dr. BS. Care to give more thought behind your L-3 vote on ryan yesterday outside of him being an ass?