Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[Yates]

Yeah I'm here. Give me a minute to put my thoughts together. I have a couple of VERY strong Town reads and one or two VERY strong scum reads on first pass.

I had Spyrex and notscience in my strong Town reads.

Plum and - I think - Grimm in my Scum reads. I'll post some cases.

But first.... obligatory wagon analysis post incoming.

[Yates]

VOTE COUNT 1.18 (FINAL)

notscience:

Garmr

Empire:

SpyreX,

LolWagons

,

Brian Skies

, fferyllt

SleepyKrew:

Grimgroove

Brian Skies

(L-0):[/b]

ChannelDelibird, SleepyKrew

, Plum, CrashTextDummie, Empire,

Notscience[/green], Peabody

VOTE COUNT 2.7 (FINAL)

ChannelDelibird

(1)

: Plum

Albert B. Rampage

(L-0):[/b] Peabody,

notscience

, Grimgroove, CrashTextDummie, fferyllt, Garmr

Plum (3)

:

ChannelDelibird

, SpyreX,

Albert B. Rampage

[Yates]

So Plum was voting for Town in both final votes while off the wagon on Albert.
Garmr was voting for Town in both final votes and was the hammer on Albert.
Peabody was voting for Town on both final votes and was the hammer on Skies.

Since I have a very strong Town read on SpyreX, I am convinced all three people voting for Plum were Town.
That also elevates the likelihood that fferylt is Town voting with Town on Empire scum Day 1 AND makes Peabody look worse for the hammer - especially given Empires position on the wagon.

I feel very good about this vote:

VOTE: Plum

Garmr and Peabody are also good votes today, but my confidence in the Plum vote is highest.

[Yates]

We are missing a kill today.

How do you know? What makes you think Empire wasn't the target of a 1 shot vig?

If I had to guess, I would say that notsci wasn't the scumkill. He looks more in line with motivations that would have driven an Empire kill.

What - specifically - makes you think this?

[Yates]

I'm not going to answer this right now.

Understood.

Also, just realized SpyreX is notscience's neighbor. So, yeah. He's conf Town at this point.

I'm kinda expecting another kill on night 3 that follows the Empire/notsci pattern.

Can you explain the pattern? I haven't finished reading the game yet so I'd like to know what you are seeing and why we shouldn't just assume you are an SK. Thanks.

[Yates]

So you think we are looking for an SK?

[Yates]

So, is there a reason you are not currently voting Plum?

[Yates]

Alright. I just wanted to make sure it wasn't because you thought Plum was Town.

[Yates]

Good point! Let's give it to Yates first.

I think it was obvious in even my cursory skim read of the thread. Why is it NOT obvious to you?

[Yates]

You mentioned the neighborship during your train of thought. Are you now denying that had something to do with the conftown-conclusion you reached?

Nope. Independently, I thought they were Town. notscience's flip has me convinced they are Town neighbors. Thus, conf Town as far as I'm concerned. I'm not going to argue semantics so I'll just say that he's obv Town enough that he will never see a vote from me.

[Yates]

And thank you for confirming your alignment.

Instead of wasting everyones time with a lynch that I can 100% guarantee will not go through, why don't you tell me what you think of Plum?

[Yates]

Alternatively, you can just tell us who else in on your team besides you and Plum. It would save us a lot of aggravation.

[Yates]

And??? Thoughts on Plum???

[Yates]

I think she's town.

Of course you do.

[Yates]

Although on second thought, SpyreX shouldn't be a priority for today.

You understand that when Plum flips scum you get lynched tomorrow, right?

[Yates]

That's only 40% guaranteed. I can't promise the rest of the Town will follow through on it but I guess we'll have a night to solidify that plan.

[Yates]

This case here is quite BS. You haven't even looked into the motives of the players for their votes. Use me for an example. I had ABR as slight scum read yes but I actually perfected your slot and only hammered ABR because we had one hour in the day left.

You were willing to lynch ABR or CDB - both of whom were Town. And how does this help your case, exactly? And how does your motivation [fake or otherwise] change the fact that you hammered Town?

[Yates]

Garmr is town.

How confident are you on this read?

[Yates]

1.Fake scum hunting.
2.Misrepping.
3.Question dodging.
4.Trying to get lynches on people who suspect.
5.Not having a real case to use on someone.
6.Potential hypocritical view points.
8 Your fallacy magically discludes you because one player you voted for hasn't flipped.

1. You don't know how I scum hunt. I'll just let you come to me.
2. LOL - I think not.
3. See point 1.
4. What? I'm trying to get exactly 1 person lynched at a time. Today that person is Plum. Have you seen me waiver on that point?
4b. I named two people that could potentially be partners with Plum [something to be pursued tomorrow]. Coincidence that those two are the ONLY people voting for me along with Plum?
5. L-1 proves otherwise. This is the mafiascum version of pointing at the scoreboard.
6. Potential? Hang your hat on potential, bub.
7. ???
8. Except I know CDB's alignment because mod told me. So I have no need to second guess his votes.

You're kind of bad at this. Which is why my 100% guarantee stands. Try lynching me again tomorrow - even when Plum flips scum. Though sadly I suspect you wont have an opportunity since scum will assume I'm the cop. For today; how about we nail down scum Plum and worry about tomorrow tomorrow?

[Yates]

Would like to see those cases.

There's plenty of time in the day for that. OR - Plum gets hammered, flips scum, and I can spend my time building a case on someone less obvious?

[Yates]

Would like to see those cases.

Actually, I can drop something in here that would probably only make sense to you given our history...

I don't object to him [ABR] being put at L-1. I do object to him being derphammered, and with an L-1 that is not aonnounced as such, chances of that happening increase dramatically.

Do you remember this statement from another game almost verbatim?

[Yates]

So, cases probably suit your interests?

It's possible I'm posturing, yes?

[Yates]

The last time I decided I like you, you were scum :/

What can I say? I'm a likeable guy regardless of alignment. Unless I'm hunting you. Right, Plum and Garmr?

[Yates]

1. The method you were using in a fallacy.

Is it? I seem to have you churning.

2. Well I Know so because your post response to 1337 was shit and a misrep and used bad logic.

After the game I'll explain the proper use of "misrep" and "bad logic." My response to 1337 was 1340, yes? In 1340 I claimed you were willing to lynch ABR or CDB. In 1337 you admitted to voting for ABR but would have preferred CDB. So how is my assertion that you were willing to lynch ABR or CDB a misrep? K. I'll let you marinate on that one.

3. how does that even relate to question 1

You don't know how I scum hunt. How is that hard to understand? What value is there in showing your whole hand to the table before the chips are in?

4. Yes it's pretty pathetic compared to others.

Wait. Yes you've seen me waiver on wanting Plum lynched? Because that hasn't happened. Plum's lynch is signed and sealed and simply awaiting delivery. Wasting time on that during this day phase is counter productive. Figuring out if and/or how you and Peabody are associated to Plum is of interest, though. Or are you answering a question you just made up in your head?

4B - You leave out the fact that that these 2 people who have been suspicious of your slot before you even arrived. Kinda funny how all the people on your wagon are your scum reads and one of them is guaranteed to be town. I know i'm town

To me it looks like OMGUS. Even in the previous slot it reads like scum teaming up on a weaker Town player in an attempt to set up a mislynch. Unfortunately for you, I came in to save the slot and now you'll have to try to kill me tonight because you'll find I won't go down as easily. Sorry, dude.

5-L-1 doesn't prove other wise as others have made the case on plum and you weren't a driving factor.

You say tome-ah-toe I say toe-may-toe.

6-It's why I said potential I'm unsure of plums slot.

I won't even argue this... point??? ...since it's nonsensical filler, anyway.

8. But you could be lying scum for we know so it makes your viewpoint worthless on that front.

Why can't I be an SK? Or a vig? All you know is that I'm not on your scum team. Whoops. Nice slip, broseph. To the actual point, you cried "fallacy!!!!" in your original point 8. My response was that it isn't a fallacy since I have more information than you. Since I had the benefit of already KNOWING CDB was Town, I would never have reason to question his votes or motives now would I??

[Yates]

Hey, what about me? I feel left out.

Oh. I don't argue semantics. If you really need to know so you don't lose any sleep, I didn't want to assume it was you when it was actually Garm. Your names were too similar for me to shoot from the hip as I was at that point.

[Yates]

And you still did not post those cases, despite stating you had them.

I've already responded to this. Also, I never said I had the cases. I just said I'd be willing to write up the cases. You'll just have to be patient and wait for me to finish my full read. Epic sad face - I know...

[Yates]

How confident are you on this read?

Very.

Only ffery at this moment am I more confident with.

Cool. So Plum today and Grim tomorrow, then. Which fits with my initial thoughts on first pass.

[Yates]

Spyrex, you're going to have to explain your town read on this dude to me.

Let's worry about that tomorrow so we don't clutter up today.

[Yates]

The fact she didn't claim could simply mean she's waiting for the intent to hammer, which is common practice.

If you're concerned about her claim, why don't you serve your intent to hammer?

[Yates]

Scum wagons tend to be the hardest to lynch

Tell me about it. How long has Plum been at L-1??

[Yates]

Our cop should consider claiming

You think? It's only Day 3. Maybe tomorrow is a safer bet?

Also, it's possible our protective role saved our cop last night. Would be 1 explanation for a missing kill.

[Yates]

What about last night??

[Yates]

oh nm - you are claiming odd night. Le lame.

[Yates]

This is all wifom sowing.

[Yates]

This is a fake claim. And not even a good one. A real tracker would have claimed long before this rather than risking a lolhammer. This is stupid that anyone is even pretending to entertain the thought.

[Yates]

To be honest, I thought it was you

Look. It's like this.

Plum is scum.

*I* am the cop.
CTD is town.
SpyreX is Town neighbor.
fferyllt is the doc.

fferyllt saved SpyreX last night as an obvious neighbor save.

Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

That leaves the remaining scum in you, Garm, and Peabody. That's why the conversation today is doing nothing.

Hammer at will.

[Yates]

Yates?

Oh. Yeah. About that.

I lied. Whoops.

[Yates]

I'm guessing this shouldn't come as much of a surprise but

I'm obviously not the cop

and was simply trying to draw the NK. I was running on a hunch that this slot had already been investigated so any real cop would know not to cc me. I also held out bonus hope that if we had a doc they would protect me. Second night phase in a row with a missing kill so maybe it worked?

At this point I'm hoping someone checked into you [Garm], fferyllt, or Peabody.

Also, sorry about trying to frame you as the doc, fferyllt. While I have a - well -

not scum

read on you, I'm not 100% convinced you are Town. Like... did you pay our friend Grimm a little visit last night??

[Yates]

I hope there is a doc as well...

How could that possibly happen? Tell me how that makes sense for balance.

[Yates]

K. I'd love to see claims out of Peabody and CTD.

All I'm going to claim at this point is

not

VT and

not

cop. I'd like to know if we have a cop and what their investigation results are. I'd also like to know if we have a doc and who they protected.

Something isn't adding up.

[Yates]

This seems to be tying to push me to be a SK which I am not.

An inno just means you aren't scum. That doesn't rule out SK. Keep that in mind.

That said? I share your concerns regarding fferyllt.

SpyreX - would you mind a full claim at this point, please? You are the last piece that will clear something up.

[Yates]

OH sorry,

I'm cop.

Forgot to say it.

What did you think of my fake claim, yesterday?

Also, why did you investigated Plum night 2 instead of CDB [my slot]? Seems strange given these three posts:

CDB's beginning posts, as I had said previously, look conducsive to someone's alignment as scum.

I'm okay with SK or CDB.

I'm against a Plum lynch for the time being. CDB is okay, but he won't be claiming.

[Yates]

And your concerns are?

Going to be enunciated immediately following SpyreX's full claim.

[Yates]

Interesting.

The reason I jumped all over Fferyllt is because *I'm* the Doc. I didn't want to announce first just in case I was wrong about Spy and he wanted to claim Doc. Low angle play but worth the shot, imo.

I never asked mod who CDB protected N1 [because it obviously didn't work] but I protected SpyreX upon replace in. What I said about why "Fferyllt" protected SpyreX is why *I* protected him. That was my way of calling my protection in case I was killed last night.

I protected CTD last night. I thought he was going to claim Cop today and was trying to throw scum off. Then I realized if *I* was thinking this, scum was probably thinking this.

I knew it was a risky gambit but I figured scum would have to try to kill the "doc" knowing I would be protected. Since I thought Fferyllt was an SK, I marked her as the doc. Her waking up alive this morning is - well - strange. Combine this with my fake Town read on fferyllt and this has me fairly convinced she's scum.

Additionally, I'm on board with Garmr's theory. It looks like a textbook scum trying to set up a mislynch play.

At this point I think we can confidently lynch Fferyllt. If the game isn't over at lynch, SpyreX is an SK so we can just knock him out tomorrow.

Vote: Fferyllt

[Yates]

If SpyreX killed Grim, scum tried killing CTD last night and were blocked by me. So I think CTD is pretty much confirmed Town at this point.

[Yates]

I want to figure out where the 3rd scum actually is.

Well... it's you, silly. Your BP doesn't make sense from a balance perspective. Also, why would you be 1-shot while the rest of us are standard unlimited roles?

I don't think scum - down by 2 - is in a position to no kill. Last night, scum had to try for the doc [to prevent another no kill], the cop [to preserve anonymity] or - less optimally - the vig/sk for any prayer at a win. Of course, you already know this.

[Yates]

I went so far as to be sure that a doctor wasn't off the table in scum calculations yesterday if they had already targeted me, when as VT I would have let the assumption that I was doc lie and hope to soak up the night kill.

Then why wouldn't you do the same as a 1-shot BP? This also does not add up. Your job as BP is to draw a NK. Your play flies in the face of this. Why *NOT* let scum think you are the doc? Heck, why not just CLAIM doc?

You are caught scum. Your claim is quite obviously fake. And your play yesterday - especially late in the day - is enough to incriminate you.

[Yates]

If you're town, consider the possibility that I'm what I say I am

If YOU are Town, explain to me how this game makes sense.

SpyreX claims Vig. I think we all agree that his claim matches up with the kills. Also, sitting right in front of us is the fact that if he is actually an SK, it seems unlikely he would claim Vig today since he would be the obvious target tomorrow after you flip scum. At the very least, we know for certainty that he is NOT scum. No doubt scum tried killing him after the NS flip. Kill the obv Town. Except, whoops! Yates comes in and doc protects him N2.

CTD? As I said, I don't believe scum would have no killed last night. Unless scum also targeted Grim - a dude that would have been easy mislynch bait today - he was last night's scum kill target. I know this because there was only 1 kill and I protected him last night.

Is Peabody fake claiming cop? I suppose it's possible. I took this into consideration when I asked him those questions in my first [second?] post of the day. Of course, that was before we had all claims on the table. So, tell me how Town wins with a vig, a doc, and a 1-shot BP. Feels like we need an investigative role, don't you think? Two saves means I'm a proven and effective doc. Two kills N1 means Vig/SK is on the table. That leaves your claim as the one in question.

Is Garm a GF? You can't assume that until other options have been exhausted. And, as he has pointed out, this game is pretty much in the bag.

What angle am I missing? Town vs Scum vs SK tomorrow? My save tonight could foul that up. Scum and SpyreX [SK in this scenario] would BOTH have to try to shoot me. Plus, you flipping Town and a non scum kill by "vig" would seal the win for scum since he would be the OBVIOUS lynch tomorrow. Doesn't seem like a smart play by SpyreX.

[Yates]

What miller?

[Yates]

Also, I can say with certainty that CTD is going to be tonight's investigation if the game doesn't end. An investigation on me would be pointless at this point. I'm either a doc protecting Peabody OR Peabody is dead tonight anyway and I get turbolynched. An investigation on SpyreX would be equally useless. He's either a Vig or an SK. This game is pretty easily resolvable in a Town win.

[Yates]

What miller?

Never mind. I forgot about the miller lynch on D1. I thought you were confusing neighbor for miller. My bad.

Though, this kind of works against you. The existence of a miller all but guarantees the existence of a cop.

I think Peabody is all but mod confirmed cop at this point. And SpyreX is all but mod confirmed Vig.

That leaves the questionable claims in me, you, and CTD - with an outside shot at Garm being a GF.

I think we just ask SpyreX to holster tonight if your lynch doesn't end the game since it will resolve itself by morning. If he doesn't holster, he's an SK and gets lynched. So it's in his best interests NOT to shoot regardless of which role he is.

Game over. Thanks for playing.

[Yates]

Garmr's potential as scum just raised a few points IMO. One of the major themes of day 1 and he doesn't remember. It must not have mattered to him on day 1.

Stop trying to wiggle your way out your scum and it ends today.

That *was* pretty weak.

[Yates]

No. I was AGREEING with you! Fferyllt's argument was like... "whuuu?"

[Yates]

I will have questions in post game about if/how I could have played a BP role better, though.

I think I've already answered this question by virtue of why your claim is not believable. Ignoring balance? If you get assigned a BP role you have one job and one job only - draw NK's away from Town PR's. You didn't do that yesterday. That's why your play doesn't align with your claim in my mind. I also don't see where you hinted at having a PR on days 1, 2, OR 3 - when you had the best opportunity EVER.

[Yates]

One way or another, my role will be proven tonight so... *shrug*

Also, why play to your meta? Heck, I would use meta to my advantage if I were you.

[Yates]

Just so this doesn't get lost.

SpyreX - please holster tonight!!!

[Yates]

Also, it maybe betrays a belief that there will be a tonight.

It goes without saying that if he's a vig and you flip scum the game is over.

Holstering is a good idea because there will be a cop reveal tomorrow. Why guess and shoot and possibly create a 1 v 1 v 1 if he's an SK? Even as a vig, it's showing that he's willing to let the cop do his job and that he ISN'T an SK.

If he's an SK and creates a 1 v 1 v 1 tomorrow? He loses and scum gets the win. We need that to be clear.

Conversely, what's the advantage to shooting tonight? There isn't one.

[Yates]

Just shoot CrashTextDummie his the wild card and investigate either yates or Spyrex doesn't matter which. It's either 3 players or 4 players and 3 players is better.

Investigation on SpyreX is worthless. He's either a Vig or an SK. They would both come back clean to a cop.
Investigation on me is worthless. I'm either a doc - as I claim - or I'm dead when the cop turns up dead in the morning [ie. you wouldn't get the result].
CTD is the ONLY investigation needed.
And we will know his alignment in the morning.

That's why I'm against SpyreX shooting. This way if CTD comes up clean, the discussion about a GF comes back into play. Since I will be dead for that discussion, you are the one that makes the most sense as a GF in that specific scenario.

I'm fairly confident [like - 90%] in the fferyllt flip but this is a fun exercise to brainstorm in case of a similar situation in future games. So, I'm willing to indulge for the sake of practice.

[Yates]

there's no reason to be in a hurry

This is something people keep saying that I strongly disagree with. Unless you have something REALLY game changing that's going to take a long time to type up, I don't see what you could possibly have to add at this point. I'm of the opinion that slow games lead to apathy. Apathy hurts Town and Town alone. It's kind of like baseball in that respect. You only need to slow the game down when you are losing big. Otherwise, a pitcher that takes a long time between pitches puts his defense on their heels and leads to bad play.

Anyway, we can talk about this post-game. But please don't stall the game for no reason.

[Yates]

Yates if you are scum and fferylt flips down what you are pushing is the ideal situation.

Who does scum Yates kill?

CTD leaving the cop AND the vig alive with you as cop cleared? Nope.
Peabody thus proving I'm not a doc? Nope.
You thus swapping one cop clear for another? Nope

Bottom line; if I were scum I'd be in a no win scenario by setting fferyllt up and claiming doc. Also, you'd need to explain at least 1 of the no kills at night.

Again, only scum could possibly benefit from a Vig shot tonight.

[Yates]

Does this look like the final post of a doctor who was at L-2 mere hours before nightfall?

Yes. He obviously didn't want Town to lose because of his activity. How is that NOT pro-Town play?

Keep flailing.

This is also why stalling is stupid. You have to listen to scum wifom. And that's as much fun as slamming your head against a wall. Interesting to see you growing balls once SpyreX is on record as claiming to be having a difficult time lynching you due to you being a Town read all game, though.

[Yates]

Fine. Shoot me a pm once the hammer has been dropped. There's nothing left for me to add to this.

[Yates]

Lame.

[Yates]

The only thing late I was really concerned with (after Godfather gate started up) was Peabody actually inspecting me.

Would you have returned guilty? That isn't very typical.

But, Yates did a good job for me on the "SK's will return clear, so check someone else" as well as somehow leading into a Ffery lynch.

In fairness, I fully intended to lynch you after we lynched the "last scum." Again, a two scum setup versus an SK and this much Town power isn't very typical.

We were beaten by the setup, fair and square.