Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)


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Post Post #7 (isolation #0) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:53 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

VOTE: Brian Skies

Choo choo
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Post Post #17 (isolation #1) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:27 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 12, Brian Skies wrote:
I'm the miller.
I'm going to die anyways, look for someone else.
What a weird way to claim. If you're "going to die anyways", shouldn't we be looking at you first, to decide whether we believe you and lynch you immediately if we don't? Why do you say this as if you expect claiming miller to let you survive for a while?
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Post Post #21 (isolation #2) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:44 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Well, you're obviously never going to get investigated, are you? The chances of you being a lying Godfather are slim enough that there's literally no point. Why are you concerned about getting investigated now?
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Post Post #22 (isolation #3) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:45 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Ah, hang on, may have misread #18.
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Post Post #24 (isolation #4) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:47 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

That's the extent of your comment on the miller situation, Smudger?
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Post Post #29 (isolation #5) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:22 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

That's the extent of your comment on the miller situation, notscience?
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Post Post #31 (isolation #6) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In a vacuum, sure.
How
they're made isn't. What do you think of #17?
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Post Post #34 (isolation #7) » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:45 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 33, notscience wrote:Scum fakeclaims usually come with increased pressure.
Not if they're fakeclaiming miller as a gambit, obviously. If they weren't going to immediately claim, they wouldn't bother. Brian has made it clear that he understands it's protown to claim immediately as miller, so the votes on him are coincidental in that regard.
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Post Post #94 (isolation #8) » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:03 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

At this point, I do kind of believe the miller claim. I feel like I should be ruthless and demand a policy lynch anyway, as a disincentive for scum to claim miller in the future, but I probably won't have the heart to go through with it.

I'll look at other places for my vote when I get back this evening.
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Post Post #268 (isolation #9) » Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:15 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Hi guys, apologies for my inactivity this weekend. It was sitewide.

I'll be on a bit later today but it'll be in between birthday cake so, if I get distracted, that'll be why. This is one of a few threads that need my attention.
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Post Post #448 (isolation #10) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 1:48 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Massive, massive apologies. This game got lost in a bunch of other catch-ups. I'll get some stuff up today. Feel free to lynch me if I fail.
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Post Post #450 (isolation #11) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:37 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Skrew, Kaze, CTD all town. Not touching any of those today. Also tentatively putting notscience into the town pile, though this attempted meta shift is one of those where the only person to feel any benefit is possibly notscience. You're actually playing super annoyingly and I'd rather you weren't trying to put anything on for the sake of it. I shan't mention it again, though; it's your life.

From a read of the game that admittedly got skimmier the closer that I got to the end, I'm back on thinking that Brian is scum - this in particular made me uncomfortable, where it seems like Brian is asking for unearned towncred. I also think his ffery and Plum townreads in the same post are the kind of lazy townread on confident/verbose/experienced players that scum like to make rather than seriously question them. I, for example, have no particular reason to see either of them as anything more than null at the moment.

I had a Garmr post (303) written down as scummy on my readthrough but, in preparing to post it up now, I'm not sure that I do anymore. I will reread Garmr shortly to get a clearer idea.

VOTE: Brian Skies in case I'm not already (it's been a while). I recall Brian asking me why I'd earlier come around on him being more likely to be town and I will explain that next.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #12) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:47 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 347, Brian Skies wrote:@CDB: Why did you go from thinking I was scum claiming miller to town claiming miller?
What I find interesting here is that you're assuming I thought you were scum claiming miller to begin with. As should be apparent from posts like #24 and #29, I feel it's important to put pressure on early, so when you claimed miller in the way you did I felt you should get a grilling about it. I did find the wording highlighted here to be weird but wording tells have tripped me up in the past so I wanted a clearer picture of your responses before I would outright commit to a read.

I got town vibes from the expectance of death that you showed over the next couple of pages, starting with this but this has ended up looking like more of a reason not to contribute since I mentioned having a townread. I also found ffery's 36 a good reason to back off early on.
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Post Post #452 (isolation #13) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:18 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I also kinda feel like, having read his catchup post, Slaxx should be voting Brian ahead of Spyrex.
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Post Post #455 (isolation #14) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:29 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 453, SleepyKrew wrote:Do you have any scumreads besides the claimed Miller that is going to die anyway?
Still working on it - as I said, I need to give Garmr another look. I had a general scumread from my readthrough that I was going to highlight with a particular post of which I'm now not sure; I want to verify that read before I properly commit to it. Otherwise, no other particular scumreads jumped out at me from reading back.
Thoughts on the attempted Maestro wagons?
It helped show me that Kaze is town, which is nice, though I never would have joined it myself. I had Maestro down as firmly null while he was here; Empire seems promising so far.
Thoughts on the leading wagon (SpyreX)?
Chewing on it. This is either my first time playing with him or my first time in a long, long time. Empire's post was well argued but I saw enough in Spyrex's response not to jump on it yet. By reputation, I don't want us to mislynch Spyrex on Day 1 if we can avoid it so I'm probably more likely to see reasons to keep him alive than I am to lynch him, I suppose.
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Post Post #457 (isolation #15) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:34 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 456, fferyllt wrote:
In post 455, ChannelDelibird wrote:Chewing on it. This is either my first time playing with him or my first time in a long, long time. Empire's post was well argued but I saw enough in Spyrex's response not to jump on it yet. By reputation, I don't want us to mislynch Spyrex on Day 1 if we can avoid it so I'm probably more likely to see reasons to keep him alive than I am to lynch him, I suppose.
Could you expand on this? What is his reputation? Does he get mislynched early with some frequency?
I don't know how often Spyrex gets mislynched but AFAIK he has a reputation of being an excellent scumhunter. I just read this post in MD which reinforced that feeling in a timely manner.
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Post Post #460 (isolation #16) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:48 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Kaze is town.

Also, he clung onto the Maestro vote waaaay longer than I would have expected him to as scum. Given your relentless hounding him for it, I think Kazescum would have buckled in some way, be it moving to you or someone else. I got a really strong townread for his digging his heels in there. I like his confidence and I don't think he'd feel that comfortable with that confidence as scum.
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Post Post #462 (isolation #17) » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:17 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

whoa wtf how did i miss the post where he unvoted

er

I'll get back to you on this
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Post Post #507 (isolation #18) » Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:52 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Well that happened quicker than I thought.

Mod:
Apologies for the prods - I don't need V/LA, I just need to get off my arse and post more. Steps are being taken.

Re: Spyrex: The below from CTD interests me. I've turned the scenario over a couple of times in my head and it doesn't quite feel like a consistent mentality from Spyrex.
In post 486, CrashTextDummie wrote:The big issue for me here is that you're calling Brian
town
while at the same time stating that he should be lynched later on. If you're against lynching him today for stated reasoning that you think he is town, why are you preemptively in favor of lynching him later? Again, the "we could town-sweep" argument is hogwash, because a mislynch or two has zero bearing on Brian's alignment.
Ffery - why YYR?
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Post Post #509 (isolation #19) » Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:11 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Having reviewed, I'd be more open to a Kaze vote now. I think a Brian flip might tell us more about Kaze than the other way round, though, and I still think Brian's likely to flip scum.
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Post Post #511 (isolation #20) » Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:17 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

If Brian flips scum, we get to see how partners reacted to his miller claim. In that instance, I think Kaze broadly avoiding taking a stance on it, as observed by Spyrex a couple of pages ago, might be useful as a buddy indicator.
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Post Post #513 (isolation #21) » Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:37 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'm not saying Kaze can't be scum if Brian's town, just that I think we get a more informed decision if we lynch Brian before we decide what to do with Kaze. And, er, no, I'd rather lynch a scumread immediately than leave them to be dealt with by a hypothetical vig.
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Post Post #516 (isolation #22) » Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:40 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

As I mentioned above, CTD's point about how he sees Brian is a little stretchy to see as a consistent thought process. By and large, however, I find Spyrex reasonable but unreadable, in the way that good, well-spoken players often are to me when I haven't played with them much before. There's enough to slightly pique my interest but not a lot of confidence. Seems like the sort of player whom I would rather be investigating for buddy interactions rather than independent scumminess.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #23) » Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:03 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Prod-dodge; catching up with a bunch of games tonight so you'll be hearing from me shortly.
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Post Post #667 (isolation #24) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:48 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Ballsed up on last post due to Football Manager. Today it's work. Vig me if I don't get something up tonight.
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Post Post #684 (isolation #25) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:13 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 672, Peabody wrote:Spyrex - How did you pick your town reads?

CTD - Can you explain this vote?
Klaxons here - Blank 'explanation questions' on are the easiest to ask. Scum prefer them.
I don't want to waste our Day 1 lynch on a miller claim. It robs us of information for day 2. Scum can easily pass on "Yeah, this lynch should happen," instead of contributing in a meaningful way.
This doesn't feel representative. By this point you should have seen people voting for Brian for more than just "well, he's a claimed miller so I guess we should lynch him at some point anyway".
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Post Post #685 (isolation #26) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:16 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 607, Empire wrote:
In post 511, ChannelDelibird wrote:If Brian flips scum, we get to see how partners reacted to his miller claim. In that instance, I think Kaze broadly avoiding taking a stance on it, as observed by Spyrex a couple of pages ago, might be useful as a buddy indicator.
Do you really think that's a thing? I think buddies of a scummillerfakeclaim would be more inclined to at least say something about it rather than avoid it altogether (it's probably a bit of really pretentious half baked theory, but I'm thinking pregame deliberated actions like that would compel scum to say something because it gives them an easy way to enter the game).
Depends whether or not it was premeditated - I dunno if the scum got a chance to discuss it among themselves before gamestart. But, yes, I do think it's a thing.
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Post Post #686 (isolation #27) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:17 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 626, notscience wrote:Everyone died ;-;
This post makes me think notscience is town. You'd think it was an easy thing to say but I've been burned recently by scum who just sat back and observed nothing happening while nothing was happening.
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Post Post #687 (isolation #28) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:17 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 642, fferyllt wrote:
In post 640, SleepyKrew wrote:Except you didn't offer any real thoughts. Why would you feel like you need to say something game related in a prod drudge before you're caught up?
Do you have a history of this behavior
?
It's kinda caught my attention that you ask these sorts of meta questions but aren't really that curious about the answers.
And now I have a townread on ffery.
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Post Post #689 (isolation #29) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:23 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 616, Plum wrote:CDB himself has pretty much had no suspects outside of Brian and pretty limited contributions overall, muddling around with null reads and coasting on fairly low-risk, low-attention interactions.
Totally fair criticism and one I'm looking to rectify. I'm a little put off by the rather wally nature of a lot of the posts here, which is a contributing factor towards my gravitating towards simpler reads (Brian claimed miller -> Brian is also acting scummy -> It adds up, can we get this done?). Other contributing factors include the fact that I suck, so I apologise. I do think a flip or two would go a long way towards me getting my teeth into this game, but I'll put some more effort in anyway because my current contributions are not fair on y'all.
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Post Post #690 (isolation #30) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:26 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 688, LolWagons wrote:Out of all that's transpired you think thats what makes him town? I know sometimes its the insignificant things that seem really genuine but that is really stretching it.
If there are compelling reasons to think otherwise in a wallpost somewhere, they'll need pointing out to me but, when I come back to a thread I've been neglecting and spot a simple post like that which strikes a chord, I find it pretty clarifying. Also, I just got burned in SpyParty Mafia where town lost because scum let the game drift into oblivion. It reminded me that town care more, and I got that impression from notscience's post.
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Post Post #691 (isolation #31) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:26 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

That said, what do you think my pointing it out says about my alignment (this is really a question I should have asked before I posted the previous post but whatever, I'm interested in your answer)?
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Post Post #692 (isolation #32) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:30 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'm going to go to bed now (1.30am here) but I'll be following up on more tomorrow after skimming the last few pages. Having not digested posts over a certain length but read basically everything else I've missed, I'm still pretty happy that Brian should be the lynch, but I'd like to get some thoughts on record about everyone before we do it.
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Post Post #694 (isolation #33) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:40 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Just...one...more...post...
In post 693, LolWagons wrote:I see where you're coming from with the spy mafia game (one of the games I skimmed to get a feel for the new site meta since ive been gone a while) but to me it looks more like you decided on him being town and gave that reason to justify it afterwards. To me thats more likely to come from scum.
I ... don't really see why you'd think that. I mean, I don't think anyone could argue that I've not been fairly disconnected from this game, so if I'm looking for reasons to call notscience town, wouldn't I have read more thoroughly and made sure I wasn't doing something that would play badly? Subjectivity bias here but I thought it was fairly clear that my last few posts have been from me just picking through the thread basically backwards as I go; why would I decide notscience was town on page 27 if there was a chance he'd done something I could have exploited differently on page 26?

You could perhaps argue that I was looking for a reason to call him
anything
, for the sake of having reads. And that's perhaps true; I'm a bit ashamed of having offered so little so far and am keen to make up for it by saying things that can be both useful and analysed. However, I do feel particularly on Day 1 that you don't need huge amounts of reasons to call someone town. You can come back to people later if you townread them before, but on Day 1 you have the most people alive and you want to narrow them down in order to find your first lynch. Quick, simple townreads are valuable and I think there's enough in what I saw to say 'OK, you know what, let's go with notscience as town'.

I hope that wasn't too rambling.
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Post Post #706 (isolation #34) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:17 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 696, SleepyKrew wrote:I really don't like the reasoning for this read. IMO:
Generally, when a game is low on activity, coming in and questioning and pushing discussion etc is protown. Just lurking along is generally scummy. Don't you think if he truly cared about getting activity up he'd be more active and more thoughtful and perhaps putting more effort into the game?
I think it's more helpful to the town to come in and question and push discussion etc in that situation, but I don't think that means that just saying "everyone died ;_;" is not something also done by town. From what I've seen of notscience, I wouldn't actually necessarily expect more pushing than that.
Don't you also think that something like this ("he's town for commenting on lack of activity) is something that should be judged using a player-by-player case-by-case basis? Do you know that ns hasn't doesn't or wouldn't do this as scum? I don't think you do.
I haven't done a thorough examination of all of notscience's games and I'm not going to for fun reasons. I'm using my limited anecdotal experience with him and a recent reminder from another game of how scum prefer it to form a hypothesis, which does the job of answering the question to myself of "would I be OK to lynch notscience today?".
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Post Post #707 (isolation #35) » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:19 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 700, LolWagons wrote:CDB that read might have held up on like page 8, but so much has happened since then its kind of weird to let something like that sway your opinion that much.
And if I thought things that happened before made a significant contribution to my notscience read, I would have mentioned it. I don't think it's at all weird to spot little things at any point in the game that click something in your head. It's absolutely normal.
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Post Post #730 (isolation #36) » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:21 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Stop it, Grimgroove.
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Post Post #783 (isolation #37) » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:24 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 766, Peabody wrote:
In post 764, SleepyKrew wrote:In case I was wrong. I can push a suspect and preach non-game-specific theory at the same time.
Your response is the one I expected but not the one I was hoping for. Going to bed now. Hopefully I'll do that meta on you tomorrow.
Hm. So would you say you were waffling while you were pushing for the lynch?
These questions strike me as pushing things that look weird just so that he has something to push.
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Post Post #835 (isolation #38) » Mon Oct 14, 2013 5:18 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

More a bit later but, Skrew, I did respond.
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Post Post #947 (isolation #39) » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:46 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Unexpectedly busy today, haven't got a chance to read anything. Very sorry. Possibly will be able to tonight if I can put off sleep long enough, but tomorrow if not.
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Post Post #1050 (isolation #40) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:53 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

I'm back from V/LA and now going to get caught up/go back over Day 1. A scumflip is exactly what the doctor ordered; I'll get my teeth into this one.
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Post Post #1051 (isolation #41) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:13 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

OK, I've gone over the whole game focusing on Empire and people discussing Empire. It's left me with a few strengthened townreads and some seriously confused scum suspects.

Town: Grimgroove (more a general read than Empire-focused as I'd largely not had a chance to read him at all before now), Spyrex, notscience, Garmr, CTD, Skrew
Of those, I'm most confident of the first four.

I am left with confusion about ffery, Plum and Peabody.

The important posts:

This vote from Kaze feels like it's a reasonably safe time to vote an underperforming buddy. I'm not sure that Kaze would be the kind of scum to jump on a partner-led bus early, so I am inclined to think Peabody-ffery is an unlikely team.

Posts that throw red flags for Peabody from me include this, this, this, this and this. BUT this and this kind of go some way toward making them being buddies less likely. And this feels like it should be informative somehow but I just don't know whether we can derive anything from it at all. Overall, I have rather too many scumpings on Peabody for me to be able to just ignore but particularly Kaze's stronger push on Empire makes me really unsure.

Ffery seems like she
should
be a townread. I've already mentioned getting one on her before, and I think I'm still happy with the reason on that one. Reading back, I initially wondered about this; I can see it both ways as either genuinely town trying to force another player into action/go with a hunch, or alternatively as scum trying to nudge a buddy into doing more. It's probably null but it did make me start looking at ffery more intently than some others as I read through and there are some confusing leans.

This seems like an odd time/reason to unvote Maestro. This from Empire, in a larger post that should be crucial but that I find frustratingly impenetrable, at least doesn't seem to make a ffery partnership less likely. Again, I could see this going either way but I thiiiiiink I lean slightly scummish on it. But then you get this and it's getting to a point where she's been pushing Empire for such a long time that it's hard not to think it's townish. But then this happens and I wonder again, although I thiiiiink it's consistent with fferytown as well. Overall, I am confused but I am willing to chalk enough of it up to paranoia and look at some general towniness and say this isn't the place to go today.

Plum, then. Around this time, she seems to be largely ignoring Maestro but includes him in a pretty passive list of basically 'people who can die, I guess', which I think is more likely to come from a buddy than not. I find her vote on Grimgroove a bit weird, as he looks fairly solidly town due to sheer volume of input and heart, and there are also a couple of other posts which I noted down though are mostly seen through confirmation bias, I suspect. Of everything, she seems like the vote I can least argue with at the moment.

VOTE: Plum

If anyone wants to ask me stuff/point me to anything I missed, this is a good time. I've got my head further into the game than I have before and would like to capitalise it in a slightly less rambling way than this large post. Hit me.
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Post Post #1052 (isolation #42) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 10:16 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Dammit, thought I'd caught all those quote fails.
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Post Post #1054 (isolation #43) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 12:24 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1053, CrashTextDummie wrote:Why is notscience a town read?
For reasons mentioned yesterday but also this and the timing of this. Neighbourhood also leans town.
Any thought on wagon composition at the end of yesterday?
Doesn't seem particularly interesting. Ffery's assertion that the Empire wagon was all town is not exactly pushing the boat out from her POV. Grimgroove and Garmr, those most obviously not voting for a bigger wagon at the end of the day, seem town enough for other reasons and I can't speak to timezones so not particularly seeing it as significant.
Any thought on the LolWagons kill?
Given Empire's flip, it looks like a fairly standard kill-off-the-guy-nobody's-really-scumreading-who-has-his-teeth-into-one-of-us affair.
Your Ffery read doesn't exactly look like a scum read, and it's implied that you're not very confident in your CTD/SK reads. How does your suspicion of the former rank against your read on the latter two?
My ffery conclusion doesn't end up like a proper scumread but it was one of the ones I agonised most over as I went over. This was one of the first major interactions with Maestro/Empire of any kind from any player and so, in trying to read from an Empire-centric POV, I gave it quite a lot of thought and decided that I could see it either way. Though that means it's null, that possibility of it being a scumbuddy-nudge affected how I read ffery through the rest of a thread, given that she was a previous townread that I was now asking myself from very early on whether I should doubt.

I find her scummier than CTD/SK, due to posts highlighted. I find you fairly difficult to read but tentatively think that this suggests that you are not an Empire buddy. I have had a stronger townread on Skrew before but someone had a throwaway post somewhere about him enthusiastically resisting the Maestro wagon Yesterday which made me think "perhaps I should be more paranoid", though I don't think I'm interested in going in that direction Today at the very least.
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Post Post #1062 (isolation #44) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:24 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1056, Plum wrote:You yourself commented none on the Maestro wagon at all until after the fact
No, but unlike you I wasn't there at the time - unless you're accusing me of strategically being busy sitewide - but I didn't ignore it when I got back, as Skrew and I discussed it in relation to Kaze at least.
and didn't do anything much to read Empire after he replaced in.
You're right. I find him tough to read and it was easier to focus elsewhere with the time that I had.
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Post Post #1063 (isolation #45) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:33 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1057, fferyllt wrote:You thiiiiiink my Maestro vote was me trying to nudge Maestro into doing more. If so, why wouldn't I have taken SK's invitation to do something more useful with my vote once I'd made my nudge?
I don't think that's as certain a scum consequence as you're implying here. Plenty of people would hold onto such a vote under a bit of pressure to make a point or appear convinced or whatever.
You thiiiink my FoSing Empire for not initiating interactions was slightly scummish. What's your rationale? Was I coaching him? Me?
Coaching him, per se? No, unlikely, but as scum I find that there are things I have to call out my partners on because I would have spotted them as town. Seeing as you seem to know Empire well, it would make sense that you'd feel obliged to draw attention to something. As I said later in the relevant paragraph, however, the strength and continuousness with which you banged this drum kind of has to add up to you being more likely town than scum - but this is a post that, along the way, put doubt in my mind.
I unvoted him while I went back through a game I played where he hydra'd to see if I was all that mistaken about which posts were his vs Tierce's. After confirming that my recollection wasn't so bad, I put my vote back down. And while you think that kind of caution about my vote is consistent with my town game, you're still kinda hmm?
As I thought was obvious from the 'this, this and this' nature of my catchup post, I was going through as I went and noted down what felt weird. At the time of that post, I didn't see the later vote back on. You didn't explain that this was what you were doing initially, either. I think it was reasonable to note it down as odd.
Where did you learn what is consistent with fferytown? What games did you meta?
When I said "consistent with fferytown" it was not supposed to mean "consistent with ffery's history of being town" (though I apologise for the unclear wording, your interpretation would normally be how I read it too), just "consistent with ffery being town here" in the context of one game. I have very little meta of you from which to draw and am mostly just going on what we see in this thread.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #46) » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:36 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1061, Grimgroove wrote:Especially ChannelDeliBird suddenly considering me his strongest townread seems quite out there.
Believe it or not, that isn't a "towniest to scummiest" list of my townreads up there. I just wrote out all six of the people in the order that the names came to me and the least certain ones came out last. If it makes you feel better, you're probably my fourth strongest townread.
No matter how much enthousiasm I show and how much heart I put into it ("sheer volume and heart"), those are not clear-cut towntells and I find it odd you use these as your arguments
Just to make it clear why that sort of thing works for me:
In post 706, ChannelDelibird wrote:which does the job of answering the question to myself of "would I be OK to lynch notscience today?".
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Post Post #1072 (isolation #47) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 8:25 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

On my phone so can't post much but, Grimgroove, ffery, what do you think was the scum motivation for presenting my thoughts on ffery as I did?
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Post Post #1078 (isolation #48) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:42 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

It might not be the most helpful thing to say but my ego demands that I point out that my scum game has improved since Oldy Mafia.
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Post Post #1079 (isolation #49) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:43 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Wasn't supposed to link to that post in particular but just go with it.
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Post Post #1081 (isolation #50) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:50 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

That doesn't really sound like me. I should be able to find meta examples of me asking things like #1072 as town; I'll have a look.
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Post Post #1082 (isolation #51) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:05 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

CDB, as town, talking after the fact about things he did not having scum motivations:

SpyParty Mafia
Balto the Invitational
Gorilla Munch

I could go back further but I can't really be arsed; I think you can get the point that the behaviour is not out of character with my town game.
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #52) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:28 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1066, Garmr wrote:He stayed well clear of the empire wagon and didn't really talk about it and when some asked him in post 455 I believe it was fence sitting. I know I know I thought empire was town as well but i was to busy tunneling kaze and peabody jumping to the conclusion they were a scum team.
How much of it was "not really talking about the Empire wagon" and how much of it was "I simply wasn't there to talk about anything"? I did pop in when I could, of course, but I don't think this is a particularly fair characterisation of my play. I'm also not going to accept "but I was too busy tunneling Kaze to have a scumread on Empire" as a way for it to be OK for you to think he was town but not for me to think he was "promising". You are allowed to have more than one scumread at a time and, as someone pointed out, Kaze & Peabody are the same slot you could hardly think they were an exclusive two-man scumteam. I thought Empire was well-spoken and fairly persuasive, which he was and is, and while I was around that was pretty much enough because I had a strong scumread in Brian. You know that this is a reasonable behaviour because you just said that you did the same.
As I had Brian as a null at the time I wanted to lynch my scum over the miller and let the Vig deal with it latter which I thought would happen around night 2 since I think most people viewed brian as a null read just like me.
As I told you then, waiting for a hypothetical vig to do dirty work is silly because said vig is hypothetical. From my experience of mini normals, the role is far from common enough for us to simply expect a vig to do stuff for us. That may be the case here after all but we had no reason to assume that we could leave it for that.
This was obviously a
empire scum slip
which Everyone seemed to miss except CDB he corrected empire on it in a way that covers it up. Empire responds with this.
What? WHAT? Just because we now know Empire was scum doesn't make everything he said a slip. I'm not some mythical Sherlock scum who notices his partner's slips even when nobody else does it and then subtly cleans it up. Have you seen the kind of players who are sharing this game with us? It just isn't a slip. It just isn't. It's just us talking.
This is the post empire acknowledges CDB responce to his scum slip up. Then he tries to cover it up even more and with the last paragraph he leaves hints for CBD to not go for Peabody and NS but to keep focused on Brian.
Why is "Empire hints to scumbuddy CDB to keep focused on Brian" more likely than "Empire subtly encourages town CDB to keep pushing for a mislynch on Briantown"?
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Post Post #1084 (isolation #53) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:33 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1068, fferyllt wrote:I seem to know him well? As I indicated, I've played one game with him.
I may have missed/forgotten you explicitly saying you'd played one game with him. I assumed more because your interactions seemed to imply a longer history than that.
I have no idea where this model of how I'd play as scum comes from, but it's not based on available data about how I play as scum at this point in my development as a player.
As I've previously indicated, I'm not coming into this game with a vast meta catalogue of you prepared. I can't even remember if we have a completed game together; I know you more by what seems to be a pretty good reputation. My model for you is not much more developed than "probably pretty good". When reading your posts, I'm usually thinking "could I see, generally, scum being more likely to do this than town" rather than "based on available data, is this more likely to be fferyscum than fferytown"? I don't know you well enough to get there yet, though I agree that that would be the better question.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #54) » Tue Oct 22, 2013 12:01 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1086, fferyllt wrote:Then, you're making assumptions about my play more or less sight unseen based on what some hypothetical average MS player might do.
As a baseline, yes, and I appreciate the reminder about you playing a bunch off-site, which I think I knew but of which perhaps could be more mindful sometimes.
My self assessment is that I mostly played a solid day 1, and now know that I locked on to at least one scum. But, in a mostly unknown player list I didn't have the gravitas or the confidence to argue effectively for the lynch I thought was optimal.
In the end, I pretty much agree with you. That's more or less the point I made in the original rambly post to which you reacted. I wanted to convey that I agonised over the read because I think it's important to share how much I ummed and ahhed on my readthrough - because it's a thing that happened, which you'd have known from my literal umms and ahhs if we were playing this face-to-face - in order to be as honest and readable as possible. The need to be open about my thoughts is enhanced by my not having been around at all times.
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Post Post #1096 (isolation #55) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:35 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 1094, Grimgroove wrote:(probably in order not to have to come up with those unexisting notes).
You think I couldn't have throwaway-linked a couple of posts as I had just done with more than one player further above that same post? I don't see how that makes sense.

The other two noted posts were this (I wondered if it came across like Plum knew Brian was town, but decided there was a good chance I was only seeing it that way because I already had Plum down as likely scum due to POE and the Maestro thing already by hat point) and this (Empire's reads list does nothing to dissuade a hypothesis of Plumscum).
A confbias? After those two measly arguments, one of which relates to the beginning of the topic and one to the end? How does that explain a confirmation bias on anything Plum posted in between those instances?
Take into account the number of townreads I had and any sign of scumminess is magnified in importance.
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Post Post #1097 (isolation #56) » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:39 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

On your continued grievance about the perceived throwaway nature of my townread on you: Sometimes you just have to say that 'dude looks town'. That's what I got, strong enough that I don't feel the need to analyse deeper. Strong immediate reaction, which remains.
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Post Post #1115 (isolation #57) » Fri Oct 25, 2013 11:26 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Yep, joining in with that, more from me tomorrow.
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #58) » Sun Oct 27, 2013 11:35 pm

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Ack, sorry, Football Manager stole my weekend. Post coming when I've digested the new Arcade Fire album. Priorities.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #59) » Fri Nov 01, 2013 4:20 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Hi guys - I'm really sorry for dropping off. Been a crazy couple of days but I should have scrambled on to let you know about it. Catching up today.
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Post Post #1248 (isolation #60) » Mon Nov 04, 2013 10:09 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

Fuck. I'm so sorry. This isn't fair, I'm not going to have enough time over the next few days to catch up with this. Particularly sorry to CTD 'cause at least I've completed games with some of the others here.

Mod:
Huge apologies. It's best if I request replacement. Sorry for not manning up and recognising as much sooner.
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