Mini 1341 - Game Over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yarr.

Will read up soon.

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Caught up.

Scum:
Pine
ICEninja

Town:
pecan
acfan

Vote: ICEninja

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PE2: Care to explain, CES? More the Townreads than the scumreads, though if you have something new on ICE or I, feel free.

Not particularly.

@Michel, I had a silly reason, but on second thought, I will

Unvote, vote: Pine

.

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ICEninja pretty obvscum too though.

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No one's impressed by your overblown bussing, VE.

(I hope.)

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(jk but srs, I can't read that guy you guys help me out with him okay?)

How do you know? You were scum last time; maybe if you're town, you'll be able to spot the subtle intownations of my posting.

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Vote: VisceraEyes

By the bye, ICEninja isn't quite as bad at scum as he claimed considering he managed to survive chauchau's recently finished Mini Normal just fine. The slot's scum.

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Pinelynch already had plenty of momentum before you replaced in. What you're saying is simply factually wrong.

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As to why you'd bus your buddy, VE, it's simple - you were the only other viable lynch and Pine was as good as dead regardless (the Cop-Tracker alone should've been enough to get him lynched.) You being a good scum player only makes the decision easier in that respect.

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They get a pass for the moment, yes. You just postpone the decision as to whether to lynch them to a later Day. This is perfectly standard.

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CONFESS.

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Well, you were hardly going to confess unprompted.

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Assuming Michel was smart enough not to use his ability, it has some weak set-up implications but is otherwise a fairly informationless nightkill.

Going to have to spend some time recalibrating as I do not currently have a suspect.

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Not sure why it would be unsound for him to do so logically, care to explain Cogito?

Because I think he'd be more valuable to the town than anyone he could protect.

Vote: Alduskkel

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Town by virtue of being a doublevoter. The scenario you just described should make that pretty obvious.

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I am not sheeping you.

The reason was that a cop+tracker combination would almost certainly imply the existence of a roleblocker. Now I could see the scum roleblocking nhammencop over Pinetracker N1 (I realize that it's fairly improbable that they would feel sufficiently certain about nhammen as PR except in the scenario that Pine was scum and he experienced nhammen's opposition to him as a soft counterclaim; like I said, it was silly, my thoughts were a little jumbled up.) but then surely they would roleblock Pinetracker N2. So the idea was that if Pine were town, we'd likely find out he had been roleblocked N2 whereas I doubt he would've come up with that if he were scum.

I will comment more tomorrow. I'm feeling lazy today.

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Brundibar looks town to me.

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Oh and don't hammer, SV. I see no reason why we shouldn't take our time.

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Oh right, CES! Idk what to make of you, CES. What should I make of you? If you were scum, who would YOU nightkill? Maybe moreimportantly, who would you have killed last night?

I probably would've nightkilled SV although Michel makes sense as a nightkill though (the AVkill is much weirder).

I think there are two more scum (or just SV) because... I don't know. Because it seems that way. I dunno. We're kind of power-heavy on the townside, assuming town-doublevoter, we know that at least one of the mafia was a goon, so either unless there's an amazing, unlynchable bulletproof joat scum, there should be two? I don't know what put it into my head originally. It's a mini, so 12 players... could still come out to 2 scum, right? Except then we have a bunch of weird Power Roles.

A simple Cop+Bodyguard+Doublevoter vs. 3 Goons seems fairly feasible.

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@CES Why does Brundi look town to you? And where's your analysis? You got called out for sheeping Junpei, and although you say that's not what you're doing, it looks to me like you're stalling on elaborating your thoughts.

Don't really feel the need to elaborate on Alduskkel.

As for brundibar, his posting feels fairly natural and self-assured (i.e. not worried about people going after him) to me. 379 is a definite town tell.

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Cogito you said that you had analysis, this means that there was something to say - now there isn't? Explain yourself.

I don't know what you're talking about.

Alduskkel, why don't you look town? You looked town last time I played with you.

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When did we last play together?
Early 2010. >_>

Why don't I look town? You tell me, then I'll tell you why you're wrong.

That's a pretty meaningless question. You just don't, the same way you don't look like a kitten or a fireman. Do you think you look town? Because I have some trouble reconciling with the rest of that post.

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EBWOP:

When did we last play together?

Early 2010. >_>

Why don't I look town? You tell me, then I'll tell you why you're wrong.

That's a pretty meaningless question. You just don't, the same way you don't look like a kitten or a fireman. Do you think you look town? Because I have some trouble reconciling with the rest of that post.

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4) You are saying ICE is scum because he campaigned for a lynch of a townie which a pure post hoc fallacy.

We knew he was town at the time Alduskkel posted that. There's nothing post hoc fallacy about that. Trying to get mislynches is a scum tell (and even if you disagree with this, the relevant question is whether Alduskkel believes it, which is incredibly likely).

Why is 570 so bad, Junpei? Are you bussing?

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>Ice wanted X lynched
>>X fipped town

>Ald says Ice wanted X lynched because he was town

What type of bullshit logic is that?

If you accept the two statements "ICEninja pushed a mislynch." and "Scum are more likely to push mislynch.", then the correct conclusion is "ICEninja is more likely to be scum." This really is all fairly basic and I don't see what your problem with it could be unless you're reading it as a syllogism or if you think using information we gain at later points is somehow inadmissible ("post hoc") even though obviously scumICE would have had that information at the time.

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(and even if you disagree with this, the relevant question is whether Alduskkel believes it, which is incredibly likely)

Why do you think I included that parenthetical? It is completely irrelevant what your opinion is on this matter when it comes to evaluating Alduskkel's reasoning.

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Because it's conventional wisdom.

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It's okay. I do evolve.

(I'm mostly waiting for Salamence20 to show up and for SV to hammer Alduskkel at this point but I'll probably answer any specific question you might have.)

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The reasoning presented is a bit naïve (given the entire game Alduskkel's lurking is far more likely to be based on inactivity than tactics) but that's a common enough mistake and I could definitely see this line of reasoning coming from a townie. Not overexplained either despite first impressions. On the whole, not a particularly alignment-relevant post although a pattern of making that type of post would certainly count as a town tell in my book given his level of experience.

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what what

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Currently think it's either Salamence20-Whiskers or Junpei-Whiskers (Junpei-Salamence20 seems unlikely given 602). Will do a re-read when I get some time to see if I can't narrow it down to one pairing.

Would also like Salamence20 to explain his hammer. That post by Alduskkel doesn't seem like one that would normally lead to a hammer.

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So far you've given no reasoning for your reads and repeated something I've already said.

That's why I said "also", yes.

And yes, this is LyLo - Town Cop alone would be too much town power to face off against 2 scum.

Salamence's latest posts make me feel somewhat better about him. Don't suppose you have a finished scum game you could link to, Salamence?

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You can't talk about those, no. I had noticed you were a Shelgoon but it was worth a try regardless.

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Whiskers and Junpei have be to my top 2 at this point. Don't know what you mean with "go there" exactly but I suspect I disagree with that suggestion.

Mod

, please prod Whiskers. Whiskers, why have you so been under the radar this game?

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That AurorusVoxkill (the purpose of which was presumably to frame ICEEyes) really does fit Whiskers too well.

P-edit: No one cleared him. I just think he's town.

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"like that"

If you just mean night kill speculation in general, then you're wrong. I know too much about mountainous-type set-ups and seen scum kill off the right people too often to disrespect the power of the nightkill. Nightkill speculation

is hard

but can absolutely be useful when applied properly.

If you're doing about this case in particular, you're even more wrong. The AVkill is weird. It was fairly obvious what AV was going to do and it wasn't going to help the town. What would lead a newbie like brundibar or an inactive player like acfan to take a stroll off the beaten path like that? On the other hand, I know Whiskers is fairly unpredictable and does weird stuff from my experiences with him. What is "noob-level analysis" about that?

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As for pecanpie: you can see in several places clear signs that he's really put some thought into his scumhunting; his bending of the ongoing games rule; and his questioning the Michel kill.

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Link for that second one.

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I believe we are playing a game that's based on the notion that we can determine what scum are likely to do with at least some degree of accuracy. Like scumhunting, nightkill analysis is hard, yes, but it is not impossible. If you disagree, then why don't you address my specific attempt at nightkill analysis here?

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I don't think I need to argue my credentials just because you've closedmindedly dismissed something as impossible. The nightkill is the most powerful tool scum have and thought goes into it; that's pretty incomparable with your silly examples.

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What's convenient about having a town read on someone at this stage as scum?

Most of your problem with me just seems to come down to playstyle. I play a concise game and only explain things when I see a reason too (why would I have to elaborate on Alduskkel? - I wanted him lynched and he was getting lynched).

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CES: You don't play concise, you play conservative to hide the fact you don't know what to do.

So true. My entire mafia playing career is based on a lie and you're the only one smart enough to spot it.

I usually find the lynching of a player a great reason to explain things.

If we're going to play judge and jury we kind of need cases to look at. That you don't want to put a case down makes it both difficult to do former and to consider your allegiance for that process.

How else do you suggest town eliminate the goodies from the baddies?

I could argue about my playstyle here, about the value of reasons vs. actions, etc., but I don't particularly think that's fruitful.

It is my playstyle.

If you are scum and I am town, then you would have a town read on everyone who is town from the start of the game.

Not sure what you mean here.

Why you would choose to vocalise a town read on me at this stage seems plainly as a buddying gesture. I've never particularly subscribed to Pine's abusive style of shaking pressure, I'd say the best way to beat the heat is to stay cool. It's self-affirming to have town be told they're town and you're in a position to do so.

You do realize I didn't mention it until explicitly asked about it by Junpei, right?

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My town read of you was already implicit in my earlier posts. I didn't choose to vocalise it; I chose not to and only ended up doing so to answer a question by Junpei.

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(You're not my #1 scum read.)

I think not talking to/refusing to answer questions from your scum read is silly.

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Very under the radar and only sign of the Whiskers I'm familiar with that I've seen is the AV nightkill.

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After lynching ald, I'm not going to take lurkers as a scumtell.

It's not about lurking. He has the most posts out of anyone alive (which only makes it worse how under the radar he's been.)

Junpei's not a leader of the town. He's put quite a bit of effort into this game but it's all shallow and boring and easily faked. There's zero reason to give him credit for that.

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If you decide the lynch that way, if scum refuse to bus (which is a very reasonable assumption), it takes all 3 Townies to agree on a scumbag to not lose outright. And once votes are placed, minds are going to change regardless.

P.S. I think it's fairly clear who out of the two has been busy discrediting the other and it's not me, Junpei.

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On a related note, let me cook up a scenario for you, Junpei: player X is generally not considered to be a good player and having fairly recently replaced in, does not have a notable amount of reads or particularly strong ones; he does however one notable positive, which is the ability to read a particular player who is otherwise fairly hard to read. Player X gets killed N1. Is nightkill analysis still impossible?

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Well to tell you the truth, im Not liking the newest CES posts, i like the new PoPP posts, and i doubt a whiskers replacement soon.

So, today i would probably go for a CES lynch in hopes to stop this brundibar/CES scumbuddy theory. But what bothers me is does CES look more like VI or scummy? Being a noob myself idk if this is reckless or just stupid play from CES. I trust you and i am willing for a CES lynch if you and PoPP are up for it.

P-Edit: lynching CES would be a good move, if he is scum, it just about proves Junpei is town and hopefully clear me of this "scumbuddies" theory.

You're not making much sense. The only way me getting lynched is going to end that theory is by the game ending.

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1) I'm not deciding a lynch by that method, I'm just showing our reality. And whose mind is actively changing since the day started? The only change you might note is that Salamence is willing to sheep pecanpie and I to lynch you.

2) That scenario is not showing all the information. For instance, the mafia's mindset needs to be set, it can't be derived from one action.

1) "once votes are placed"; actions are always going to be more interesting than words.
2) You don't know the mafia's mindset. But the point is exactly that you don't need to know the mafia's mindset to that that kill makes a lot more sense coming from that specific player who is hard read and that the nightkill thus makes it more likely that that player is scum.

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That is my current theory, yes, although I haven't ruled you out.

What is that you see in Junpei that you wouldn't expect to see from Junpeiscum?

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I didn't say I suspected you and Junpei as scumbuddies, just that I haven't ruled you out.

PoPP: do you agree with my Junpei statement?

Junpei is all town to me. His slot (ac) made an extremely early case on Pine's fakeclaim and was instrumental in bringing about the scum lynch. Since then Junpei has taken up the scumhunting torch and in my eyes has given a clear run of thoughts and questions to aid towns quest.

To sum it up, this^ he seems like the only person here doing some decent scumhunting.

Going after a partner after that partner has made a claim that should rightly doom him (from balance considerations plus the whole having to fake track results thing) is not something that deserves town credit. I haven't seen anything in terms of scumhunting from Junpei that I wouldn't expect a player with close to 5000 posts to be incapable of faking. The supposition that he's aiding town's quest seems fairly questionable to me when I can't point to anything pro-town that he accomplished (although he hasn't had much chance to).

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Unvote. Let's get Whiskers replaced first.

Whiskers' replacement should give his a new way of looking at the slot. And as long as he is absent, if you believe he is a townie (which you must at least to some degree if you're choosing to vote for someone else), then we can not lynch scum without scum cooperating.

And waiting a few days will also mean I will suddenly have tons more time and energy I can dedicate to this game.

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Can you run me through your thought process with regard to your vote and unvote here, Salamence?

Junpei! What's your gripe with him, CES? he posts and looks good, and really, isn't that all a townie needs? As opposed to you-- NOT posting, and struggling to stay a-float. Because now is the time to scrape the bottom of the barrel.

The amount of time and energy one has to dedicate to a game are not related to alignment.

Also, I'd like to contest your nightkill analysis, which reads: "Whiskers is SO RANDOM that she MUST have RANDOMLY killed AVox."

Alternatively, it could be: "Whiskers wanted to LYNCH ICEninja so she KILLED his main opponent!"
Which... what? Just kill the ninja. Look, I like being tricky and sly, but framing just doesn't work. It hasn't worked for me in the past, and if there's someone I want dead-- I'll just kill that person.

Can you link to the previous time you tried it? (And killing a likely mislynch is definitely suboptimal.)

I'll have more later when I'm not tired. My holiday proper will start soon.

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Do you intend to argue that your effort level here is a town tell or that my effort level here is a scum tell? If not, I don't really care about your generalities.

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The notion that I wouldn't have a passable scum game after 7 years is laughable.

Check out Marius and Sulla if you want to see me put in effort as scum. Or ask Whiskers about MLP: Friendship is Awesome which is otherwise lost to the crash; I put plenty of effort into that game.

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Why would I suddenly have trouble faking it? Playing as scum is brilliant; even if you don't find anything, you can just make stuff up and people probably won't notice it on account of scumhunting being hard.

As for the latter point, D2-D4 were fairly straightforward affairs with fairly obvious lynches. I got the lynches I wanted (even if they ended up being the wrong ones) so I would say I put in as much effort as I needed to. My effort Today has been subpar but I didn't know at the time of my replacement that the work would wear me down quite the way it has nor that it was going to continue this long (original plan was for me to be done by Sunday.)

P-edit: UNVOTE. Your reasoning for Junpeitown here is superweak and you are throwing the game away. Give me 2 days.

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Seriously, Salamence, I believe you're town here. Give me 2 days and I may be able to turn this game around. I've done it before.

The notion that Pine would only vote for town makes zero sense and I'm pretty sure all your other Junpeitown stuff is just playstyle.

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Junpei, would you say you can fake what you've put forth here?

Also, could you link to your latest scum game for Salamence's perusal?

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Because this is a different game than other games. Are you full of effort in every scum game? No? Why? Because - effort is specific to the environment which it is being applied to.

If your theory fails in other cases, then the logical assumption is not that it does happen to apply here.

Cogito: Why 2 days? Why all of the sudden are you willing to give effort? You or Salamence have been the main targets all day long (Especially you). Seems like the vote has suddenly gotten you scared.

Because I can dedicate Thursday to this game. It might require some extra coffee but I will have the time and energy then. I've mentioned this before, dude.

And yes, the vote has me scared; Salamence looks townish so there's a good chance it opens the door to a quicklynch.

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Salamence, you're not being a hero. All your vote on me is doing right now is giving several scum teams a chance to quicklynch me if they can coordinate. Why can't you give me 2 days?

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You shouldn't feel bad for being wrong, Salamence20 (although you might learn not to dismiss someone like Junpei so easily), but I have to say I'm disappointed you didn't give me a chance to set things right. All your vote did was set up this exact scenario.

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Also, I don't know why you decided to basically explain why you killed AurorusVox, pecan. Otherwise, well played.

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You can get away with plenty as scum. Playing the game as honestly and openly is certainly not a bad strategy in general but you can take it too far.

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Given your flip, nhammen, scum team needn't've been particularly bussy to both be on the Pinelynch. That's a really silly tell (and mostly just the grouping fallacy in action).