Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[Equinox]

HI PEOPLE. Shout-outs to people I know, dead or alive.

So, uh, I've been watching this thread (sort of) since Day 4. I was writing up a post earlier and then I realized I had no idea WTH I was on about since I lacked background information, so... let me read over Day 3, I'll jump in, and continue reading backward as we go along.

...

Actually, screw the delay. I'll just say stuff anyway and then post a more learned opinion later.

Vel-Rahn Koon playing the martyr card so many times has me on edge. Martyr cards are townish, but playing like a broken record... ehh.
I thought the case AlmasterGM brought against Kid Know Nothing was good while I was watching, but now that I have a stake here, I need to look it over again, particularly Good & Honest's play.
redtail896 is playing to his town meta, so +5 trust points.

Okay. Uh. I'll catch up momentarily.

[Equinox]

Also, I'm curious how much everybody thinks we should care about Hoopla's tracker result on KKN.

It's a "meh" thing for me. If scum can choose who submits the kill -- and apparently they can -- No Action results are null.

The martyr card has become kind of a null thing for me at this point; I think it was too easy for him to play it yesterday, and even easier today. I'm actually surprised that Hoopla placed so much stock in it.

What do you mean by "easy" here?

[Equinox]

The WIFOM you're making here is

vicious

.

The only way we can actually find out the sincerity of your martyr card is to lynch you, but the very nature of the card makes us not want to do that. Like you said, it's a very pro-town move, and our top priority is to lynch scum, not town. I'm just rather hung up on this because I know scum would be very averse to suggesting their own lynch at this point, but the move is so pro-town that it's an attractive prospect.

Sigh... I may be ready at this point to oblige your request. I'll think about this and get back to it possibly tomorrow.

[Equinox]

Bad news.

I'm going to be out for most of the day tomorrow, so I'm not sure how well I'll be caught up by Monday morning, which is the deadline. What I'm going to do is sleep on this thing between Kid Know Nothing and Vel-Rahn Koon and then decide in the morning before I leave; I will resume my reading and whatnot when I return tomorrow evening. Hopefully I'll be more solid about this by then.

[Equinox]

MOD: What time is the deadline?

Going to do some reading. Will decide on this later.

[Equinox]

Oh, awesome. Thanks!

[Equinox]

Okay. I think I've finally settled on my WIFOM. Vel-Rahn Koon isn't the play today. I base this on my own experience where I did the exact same thing. I'd stated an intent to hammer, and Vel-Rahn Koon didn't attempt to wiggle out of his lynch. The WIFOM leans more toward sincerity than gambit at this point, even though Vel-Rahn Koon didn't self-vote. (I have a feeling he has a good reason why, too.)

redtail896 is close to confirmed town, now that I've seen Hoopla's Day 3 trap.

Process of elimination leaves AlmasterGM and Kid Know Nothing.

I believe I said before that I was swayed by AlmasterGM's argument when I was observing. I still am, and looking through AlmasterGM's posts, he's actively hunting scum, and his cases against Zachrulez and Good and Honest don't feel like bussing to me.

Kid Know Nothing's lack of votes is annoying. Also, I don't like the WIFOM. The thing with Kid Know Nothing being aware of Good and Honest's meta: Unless Kid Know Nothing is an alt or browses MD, he couldn't have known about that aspect of Good and Honest's play. AlmasterGM makes a good point when he says that's not something that one easily thinks of out of the blue (unless Kid Know Nothing himself has been in that situation, but that appears unlikely based on his posting here).

I don't have the time to question Kid Know Nothing about this, so I'm solving this with a hammer instead.

Let's do this, then. If I screw this up, well, I'll eat my hat.

VOTE: Kid Know Nothing

[Equinox]

I've already hammered.

...and unless Kid Know Nothing is being evil scum, that means I screwed up. /sigh

I'll be rereading overnight, then. e_e

[Equinox]

redtail896 was voting Vel-Rahn Koon.

[Equinox]

VOTE: No Lynch

[Equinox]

I'm not going to lynch you. At all. I've stated that already.

[Equinox]

EBWOP: Happy birthday, AlmasterGM!

I'll let redtail896 chime in before I respond further. There's a thought I'm holding onto here.

[Equinox]

Triple post for additional thought.

If it's LyLo between Equinox and Vel-Rahn Koon, you know what's going to happen, right? Scum decides the hammer. Then again, I can say that only because I trust the content of my role PM...

That does sound tasty, doesn't it, scum?

AlmasterGM: Anything you want to add? Your last post was on the 16th. (I can wait until after redtail896 contributes.)

[Equinox]

I find the fact that you thought I was insinuating that you, specifically, are scum amusing.

[Equinox]

I wasn't insinuating at all. Should've made it clearer with a horizontal divider.

[Equinox]

Happy birthday, redtail896!

Also, bumpage.

[Equinox]

With that post, I think it's safe to say this.

I waited for redtail896 to post in the event that there was a doctor who faked VT during the mass claim. With his latest post, that does not appear to be the case, and with AlmasterGM's silence and Vel-Rahn Koon's behavior today, I don't think we have a doctor. That's also me forgetting we had a mass claim prior to this.

UNVOTE:

I have some thoughts I want to make here, but it's going to take a while... so I'm preventing the hammer for now.

redtail896, you're doing exactly what the scum want you to do: run yourself into WIFOM. I guess I'm only saying that because I know I'm not scum, and you've just run yourself onto the wrong track by suspecting me.

Uh, yeah. I'll have more thoughts about this momentarily.

[Equinox]

Apparently, I cannot edit... or be consistent.

I waited for redtail896 to post in the event that there was a doctor

who faked VT during the mass claim

. With his latest post, that does not appear to be the case, and with AlmasterGM's silence and Vel-Rahn Koon's behavior today, I don't think we have a doctor. That's also me forgetting we had a mass claim prior to this.

This was the scenario. Dunno what possessed me to add that struck-out portion.

-_-.

[Equinox]

What do you think of redtail896's response to Hoopla when she claimed she found a gun on him?

[Equinox]

Night phase lasted the entire duration. Everyone made a post on the site sometime during Night 3; if we were to point out a weak link, it'd be redtail896, but even then he posted twice during the 48 hours.

[Equinox]

EBWOP: By twice, I mean two separate log-ons.

[Equinox]

What do you think of redtail896's response to Hoopla when she claimed she found a gun on him?

Scratch this question; I'd misread AlmasterGM's post as suspicion of redtail896, when that wasn't the case.

[Equinox]

You probably should answer that question, redtail896.

Okay, so I promised I'd have "more content" on Saturday. Apparently, rereading didn't work too well over the weekend, so here I am today. I'm going to work on getting that reread finished tonight, and then I'll (hopefully) have a verdict on this little mess by then or at least by tomorrow morning. Sorry for taking so long; juggling isn't my strong suit.

After that:

V/LA until Wednesday night

(most likely Thursday morning)

...because I have some catching up to do for school.

The No Kill is making me paranoid. I've been thinking about this, and it doesn't make sense to me. Judging from posting activity, everyone here has logged on to the site on at least two separate occasions during the 48 hours of Night 3; the weakest alibi would be redtail896. Still, I do not think this was accidental. (And if it was, the scum is laughing.) If it was not accidental, the No Kill doesn't benefit scum_AlmasterGM or scum_Vel-Rahn Koon... but it could benefit scum_redtail896, which is why his proposal earlier has me on edge, despite the read I have on him from Hoopla's gambit on Day 2. /headache

SO YEAH, I'M RAMBLING. I'll try to piece this together with what I get tonight and see what I come up with.

[Equinox]

Some V/LA this is.

I have a question for AlmasterGM:

The point of the question is that G&H most likely wouldn't have voted for the NK. It'd break his playstyle, which he has been very adament on not breaking. He wouldn't even vote, unless absolutely required. Given that, wouldn't G&H likely leave the kill to their partner?

Also, whether or not it happens to be true, am I the only one that thinks this concept is kinda bizarre and that it would be extremely odd to just

think

of out of the blue? KKN bringing this up is giving off that very distinct insider information vibe.

What led you to think Kid Know Nothing brought this up out of the blue?

[Equinox]

I'm going to extend my absence to this evening. Sorry about this. I have a long-ish post to 869 and 873, so I'll reserve the typing fest until then.

MOD: Requesting prod of redtail896.

Before I go, I just had a thought that I'd like to examine...

Question to everyone: How carefully do you read games, and how carefully have you read this game?

[Equinox]

Nobody is hammering No Lynch until we're all ready. Don't worry about that.

In the meantime, I'm sitting here wondering if AlmasterGM already saw the question I just posed. It's not like the question requires that much thought to answer. >_>

[Equinox]

Thanks, everyone.

I asked because I caught something on Day 1 that I needed to clarify. If nobody here lied in their answer^(!), I can rule out AlmasterGM as scum, who pushed a case on Kid Know Nothing based on something that had already been proven to be false on Day 1. That link points to Good and Honest's post where s/he links to another game where s/he describes his/her meta... and that explicitly states that Good and Honest doesn't like to submit kills unless it's absolutely necessary. Kid Know Nothing probably saw this and it stuck with him.

I am comfortable saying this because reading is supposedly a pro-town action. Good townies read and hunt scum. However, when asked, townies will be honest if they haven't read. I posit that scum, who need to blend in, will be more hesitant to say that they haven't been reading if they really haven't, and if they were reading carefully already, then there's no argument.

I've said my piece here. Everyone is town... except ConfidAnon. If I live tomorrow, I will fully explain the rest of this, especially since I'll get new information from whatever happens on Night 4. If I'm dead, read that last paragraph and think about it.

I'll continue my reread, but I don't think I'm going to get anything so thoroughly ground-breaking that will stop me from doing this. (Even if it did, I still need to do this.)

VOTE: No Lynch

[Equinox]

Ah, sorry.

@Equi: can you explain how the No Kill does/doesn't benefit the players you mentioned in 868? I'm not wrapping my brain around it.

Hmm... Answering this question is a bit risky, but I'll run with it.

redtail896's response to Hoopla's gunsmith gambit on Day 2 was very townie. In a situation like that with a player like town_redtail896, it would be of greater benefit to scum to get rid of him. Sure, they could try to push a case on him, but then they'd be gambling on the chance that town_redtail896 doesn't get them lynched first. In this sense, a purposeful No Kill benefits neither scum_AlmasterGM nor scum_Vel-Rahn Koon.

Now, if redtail896 were scum, killing someone narrows the field of mislynches. Everyone alive today is scummy to some degree. From Day 1 alone, we have AlmasterGM and Vel-Rahn Koon as suspects, and that's not mentioning whatever interactions occurred on Days 2 and 3; ConfidAnon chose to dodge the issue of Hoopla on Day 1 altogether and tried to shift attention to gonnano instead, and then he went lurky on you all after that. scum_redtail896 can then cause much confusion.

All of the above banks on two things: 1) intentional submission of No Action, and 2) redtail896's meta.

So, I've just caused some massive WIFOM.

I think we should be fine, though. Bring on the betting tables.

To whomever is thinking of hammering: I will not stop you from quick-hammering, but keep in mind that both Equinox and redtail896 are still in the middle of a reread, and I've decided that whatever I get from this reread, I am going to post. I expect the same of redtail896.

[Equinox]

I'm sorry about this reread taking so bloody long. Too many things going on at once right now.

V/LA October 4

I'm not making promises anymore because I end up breaking them. >_>

[Equinox]

I bet they're all rolling in their graves, yelling at us to hurry up and finish the game, regardless of the result... >_>

I don't know what's redtail896's hold-up, but I can tell you mine. I'll be finishing up a midterm and some statistics stuff tomorrow. To be quite honest, I'm only halfway through the reread (<_<) and I lost my notes, but my memory should serve me well when I resume. As soon as my school stuff is done, PROBABLY tomorrow evening, this is top priority because I want to wrap this up and then go on Mafia sabbatical. Only reason I'm not wrapping this up sooner is I actually want to go out with a BANG! I mean, a win.

SO YEAH. I bet you guys prefer in-depth analysis to hasty LyLo hammers, right? Right.

[Equinox]

Sooooo how are those re-reads coming?

Question: Why aren't you rereading?

No new progress since my last post, unfortunately. I ended up crashing last night following my midterm, and I am right now adding finishing touches to my statistics masterpiece.

redtail896 logged in earlier today, so I can only guess that he isn't done, either.

Since we're running out of time, and it's extremely likely that I won't finish before thread lock, I'll talk about this now. I'd planned on finishing my reread and then sum up all of my findings, but I'll work with what I have now and just post as I go.

...something tells me the whole redtail896 stuff I've been posting all day is a red herring.

...and now I'm running out of time to type this post. I'll elaborate as soon as I get to class, but if I get ninja'd before then, that's my final thought on this matter.

[Equinox]

Sorry about the essay.

...something tells me the whole redtail896 stuff I've been posting all day is a red herring.

I've been thinking about this, and I conclude at this point that it's not redtail896, despite all the WIFOM I've been posting. This is just like how I should have listened to Hoopla's tracker results yesterday (

especially

when considered in conjunction with what Good and Honest posted on Day 1); Hoopla makes an excellent point about her gunsmith gambit. It's highly likely that redtail896 was being honest, considering that we're in a closed setup and scum would have benefited more from a fake PR claim than a VT claim.

I read the controversy around Hoopla's PGO claim on Day 1, and if I'm remembering my notes correctly, I had AlmasterGM and Vel-Rahn Koon down as key suspects, which was why I said I believed scum (and I thought it was redtail896 at the time) was a careful reader. The way I saw it a page or so ago, scum had a good memory and remembered this aspect or had gone to the trouble of rereading the game. I'm having some second thoughts about this, though, because I don't think we arrived at this current game state purely because of a single event on Day 1. Yay for not knowing how to scum-hunt.

Vel-Rahn Koon's attacks on Hoopla does indeed read like he's trying to deny Hoopla's PGO claim, which would make him more than a little scummy. However, considering Vel-Rahn Koon's play on Day 4, I don't think he's our last scum. Asking to be lynched to avoid LyLo on top of all the other previous evidence (some I have seen, and some I haven't yet, but I'll take your word for it that they exist) is a very risky gambit for scum to pull; it places all control of his win condition in someone else's hands. Vel-Rahn Koon not voting himself while playing the martyr move is a null tell because VRK isn't exactly in a position where he can do that and not eat a ton of flak.

Also, if this means anything at all, VRK defending Zachrulez is not a scum tell. Zachrulez had been screaming "Bus me!" since the beginning of Day 1, so it's much, much more likely that his buddies got him lynched than tried to keep him alive. (Not to mention Zachrulez was a goon.)

That leaves AlmasterGM. I know the least about him, really. I saw him ride on AGar's attacks against Hoopla on Day 1. I saw him post that case against Kid Know Nothing on Day 4, and he's admitted to not reading his games too carefully. I saw Zachrulez post a mini-case against AlmasterGM at some point, but I don't know how much weight to place on that. AlmasterGM had immediately jumped on the No Lynch with me when this day started, but AFAIK that's done by both scum and town.

/sigh

Come to think of it, I have some metagaming to do about the whole reading games carefully thing. Whelp. I'll get right back to you on that, assuming I make it in time.

Equinox's final Day 5 thoughts:

Scum

: AlmasterGM > redtail896 > Vel-Rahn Koon > Equinox

In other words, I'm back to where I started Day 5. I guess I'm a little bit more confident about this now than I was before, though. I'm out of class and have 2 hours of free time, so I'm going to finish up this reading. What I'll probably do in the interest of time is read Zachrulez and Good and Honest (ergh, walls) in isolation, see if I can pick up some distancing/buddying/whatever bells.

[Equinox]

I just remembered something.

Answer this for me before thread lock and you shall get cookies!

When I replaced in on Day 4, Kid Know Nothing and Vel-Rahn Koon were at L-1. redtail896 unvoted to prevent a quick hammer from me.

AlmasterGM and Vel-Rahn Koon, why did neither of you do the same?

[Equinox]

Argh. I've been playing like a freakin' bonehead. I should not have wasted so much time going after redtail896. So, yeah, I just reread this exchange, and now I feel stupid. >_>

ANYWAY. On to things that actually matter.

Okay, so I've just read Zachrulez's posts. In them, I saw AlmasterGM, ConfidAnon,

drmyshottyizsik

,

Elleran

,

Good and Honest

, and Vel-Rahn Koon. From what I can tell, Zachrulez is a busser, though the Day 2 bus was probably meant to take down gonnano or clear Good and Honest. So, looking at this, I'm wondering if Zachrulez's attacks on AlmasterGM are... genuine. The wagon on AlmasterGM never actually took off; people were more interested in drmyshottyizsik and then Elleran. The biggest that wagon ever got at any time was 3 votes, which is a safe enough time for distancing. The only thing that worries/WIFOMs me is if this isn't confirmation bias rearing its ugly head again, but PoE (and additional evidence below) points to this guy. With brights on.

Zachrulez defending Vel-Rahn Koon is interesting. (Oh, yeah. That comment in 893 about VRK defending Zachrulez was based on someone claiming VRK had soft-defended Zachrulez. Looking at VRK's posts in isolation, I don't see the defending, so I retract that statement. Not that the point changes, because...) Zachrulez was going down; that much was obvious. It would be weird for Zachrulez to defend scum_VRK in that manner because VRK would (and did) get attacked over that. Throw in the fact that Good and Honest was also going to go down because of her behavior, meaning a very poor prognosis for the scum team, and I think I got myself my second town.

So.

I have made my decision. I believe the evidence I have collected is firm.

On Day 6, I will lynch AlmasterGM, our final scum. Don't forget to electrocute me tonight, Pikachu.

By the way... our deadline was yesterday.

[Equinox]

I thought it was clear how I jumped from AlmasterGM-town to AlmasterGM-scum... I guess not. Here it is in tl;dr form: The evidence I gathered from reading earlier this evening (that of redtail896-town and VRK-town) is significantly stronger than the evidence I gathered from that question and answer (the results of which were redtail896-scum, AlmasterGM-town, and VRK-town).

I'm going to pose a question, then. Supposing that I am scum, how would it benefit me to switch in that manner in the course of a single game day?

I still think it's insane that scum-CA would've bussed his compatriots like that.

Scum-CA factor aside, I'm not surprised that Good and Honest and Zachrulez were bussed. Both of them were practically asking for it.

6. Scum-AGM would also be bussing like it's his job.

Actually, he did.

redtail896, you're playing right into scum's hands with that post. If my suspicions are correct, and they probably are, AlmasterGM will end up deciding the hammer tomorrow, and he is not going to vote himself.

---

Now that I'm in the comfort of my own home, I'm going to do some more readin'.

[Equinox]

Vel-Rahn Koon, get in here and say something about this. You're instrumental to the endgame.

AlmasterGM, get in here and answer my question in 894.

If I am estimating this correctly, we have anywhere from 3 to 5 hours remaining.

[Equinox]

Why do you estimate that. He said tomorrow morning on Friday. I assume that means Saturday morning.

Espeonage is in Australia. Countdown was based on his morning.

The whole "unvote to prevent quickhammer" move is one of the silliest things that happens on this site. Quickhammering is scummy. Unless it's lylo, why would we want to remove a chance for someone to out themselves as obvscum?

Quick hammering is not necessarily scummy; I've seen town do it enough times to give me pause. I'll save that for post-game, though, because theory isn't relevant to

me lynching you

the game right now.

---

I'm glad the day hasn't closed yet. I suddenly remembered this important piece during a meeting, and I feared that I wouldn't be able to present it in Day 6. Well, redtail896 (or VRK, but this is addressed to redtail896), I present this to you now, and I hope you'll consider it overnight.

Remember the exchange between you and Hoopla following her gunsmith claim on Day 3? Also, remember Hoopla's explanation of her PGO claim on Day 1?

One of the scum's primary goals is to stir town's pot -- cast enough doubt, suspicion, and confusion to get town lynching themselves. That exchange with the gun result all but confirmed redtail896 as town (and I was stupid enough to

dismiss

it for an entire day; sorry, Hoopla and fellow town and spectators). Any decent observation would reveal that. Yet why do we have this...?

First of all, sorry Hoopla, but your gambit was pretty obv. If I were mafia running against it, I would've played into it instead of just fakeclaiming (or at least strongly considered doing so). Chances of gunsmith + cop is low, and claiming Vig when there haven't been any shots is also weird. Thus, I don't buy your argument that redtail is cleared. If he's scum, simply protesting that he didn't have a gun and praying for a diversion seems like the optimal play.

AlmasterGM tried to cast doubt on the results of Hoopla's gambit.

That gambit was absolutely poisonous to scum. Being forced to keep Hoopla around to kill town with pinging scumdar (AGar) and the doctor (drmyshottyizsik) was painful enough, and now Hoopla just gave town a confirmed person for them to trust. There's only so many kills that can be done on a single night.

Therefore, the first step would be to somehow deny the results and make town suspect redtail896. AlmasterGM almost succeeded, except that I had to go reread Day 3 and then look at the timestamps. No dice, bud. WIFOMing town with a non-action on Night 4 was a nice touch, too (and if it was an accident, well, it almost worked in your favor).

AlmasterGM is scum.

redtail896, I may have played like a wishy-washy idiot, but almost every thought that I've had about this game, I put in a post. The two times that I have purposefully withheld information, they were predictions for Night 5 actions. The three of you know where I stand on everything at all times. AlmasterGM has not; look at his Day 5 posts. The post where he chose to reveal information, he did it in a manner that left room for WIFOM. Otherwise, he opted to ask the rest of us for information instead of revealing his own thoughts. If that's not pro-scum, I don't know what is.

I can understand using the tactic of not revealing stuff in MyLo to keep scum in the dark, but there is no excuse for that when the rest of the town have already done so. The ship is already sinking; why keep one's lips shut any longer?

I know where VRK stands. I know where you stand. Where does AlmasterGM stand? "Well, maybe it's Equinox, but there's that possibility that it's redtail896 WIFOMing us all." BS. You and VRK have solid opinions about who is scum. I have a solid opinion about who is scum. AlmasterGM is slippery in this regard.

I apologize for writing yet another essay, but I really don't want to be lynched when we have obvscum staring at us in the face.

[Equinox]

Gee, that helps my case a ton.

Scum, however, is still AlmasterGM. I've presented the evidence for why I believe, and strongly so, that AlmasterGM is the last mafioso.

VOTE: AlmasterGM

Vel-Rahn Koon, I probably don't need to tell you, but please consider all of the evidence before laying down the vote. redtail896 himself admitted there isn't much to the ConfidAnon case except active lurking (which ConfidAnon does practically everywhere), and the Equinox case is based on my flip-flopping in the game, to which I have already responded.

AlmasterGM cannot respond to the points I've raised against him because I've pinned down his motivations already. There's no pro-town motivation to sowing seeds of doubt about redtail896's response to Hoopla's gunsmith gambit. There's no pro-town motivation to lurking for all of Day 5 (and telling us ahead of time that he would be doing so) while the rest of us hunted for the last scumbag. Not to mention that he went trigger-happy when he thought I was calling him scum here when that was not the case (though I admit this is relatively weak evidence; still psychologically interesting).

All right, AlmasterGM, try to explain all that.

...because I don't think you can.

[Equinox]

It's going to come down to a cross-vote, AlmasterGM, with Vel-Rahn Koon deciding the hammer. No need to delay the inevitable.

[Equinox]

Prod dodge. I have nothing to say.

[Equinox]

Actually, hold that thought. I have a present. ...only because it's LyLo.

My posting of this spreadsheet is alignment-neutral.

[Equinox]

I think I'm due for a prod... so hi.

AlmasterGM forgot to post his V/LA in this game, but he's away until Sunday.

[Equinox]

I just had a thought in the shower.

Vel-Rahn Koon not hammering after 6 days should confirm that he is town.

AlmasterGM needs to put a vote down. He really doesn't have to wait until he has time to build a case because the answer should have been, "If it's not me and it's not VRK, it must be Equinox." It'd be nice if he can bring that case ASAP so we can close this game, but if he doesn't have time, slap the vote down first with some sort of line to it and then present the case when there is time.

Remind me to post a game when it's over... if it ends before this game does.

[Equinox]

Triple post to say

V/LA until October 20

[Equinox]

Equinox, clarify this statement for me please:

Also, I'm curious how much everybody thinks we should care about Hoopla's tracker result on KKN.

It's a "meh" thing for me. If scum can choose who submits the kill -- and apparently they can -- No Action results are null.

A moment of incredible stupidity (on my part).

My thought process at the time was when Hoopla did the track, there were two scum, so KKN could have easily shifted the submission responsibility to G&H, who was already under attack for posting huge IoA/IioA walls and was likely to get lynched after Zachrulez. With that in mind, I decided that Hoopla's track result probably didn't mean anything.

I'll look/respond/laugh at AlmasterGM's wall later.

[Equinox]

A moment of incredible stupidity (on my part).

So when I make an objectively correct play that has some extremely remote chance of having sum motivation, I'm auto-scum, but when you make an OBJECTIVELY BAD PLAY with LOTS OF SCUM MOTIVATION, we are supposed to just write it off as "you being stupid."

Nice double standard.

Incorrect. You're auto-scum because I'm a townie, and I'm pretty damn certain VRK is town when he didn't hammer straightaway. That leaves... ah! YOU.

And the last dude who claimed I was using double standards was actually a mafia goon, so nice try, bro.

Seriously, though, AlmasterGM cannot say he has no responsibility here, either. He pushed a lynch on KKN ("How would KKN have just thought of G&H's personality out of the blue? Gotta be insider information!") that was disproved waaaaay back on Day 1 when G&H posted about his playing style.

[Equinox]

Presence of a tracker. I've read enough games to know that it wouldn't make sense to have a watcher/tracker-type investigative role without a way to foil it.

[Equinox]

EBWOP: I think the NK choice issue was also mentioned in the thread as well, hence the "apparently" part of my statement. I don't remember who said it, however.

[Equinox]

Post 70. Look in particular at G&H's link; that contains more detailed information.

[Equinox]

AlmasterGM pisses me off, but at least it wasn't like Newbie 940.

My analysis of the redtail scenario was 100% objectively legitimate. In the event that redtail had been scum, playing into Hoopla's claim by denying having a gun would have absolutely been the correct play. I already gave my analysis why.

Yes, playing into Hoopla's hands would have been the correct play, but you completely ignored the time stamps. redtail896's response was immediate. You tried to discredit Hoopla's gambit by ignoring the KEY POINT of why the gambit worked and instead tried to say, "Well, smart scum would play right into it." This is the same thing that happened on Day 1 when Hoopla claimed PGO -- who tried to deny it?

Equinox is putting some REALLY heavy spin on this arg to fabricate this "scum motivation." Occam's razor this garbage - all I did was analyze the situation at hand and come to a series of potential conclusions.

2) The argument has no logical followup. I never tried to get redtail lynched, and I considered him town for most of the time after. This "scum motivation" is meaningless because it never goes anywhere.

FFS, attribute your quotes!

No, no heavy spin. Just heavy borrowing from Hoopla.

VRK, why would AlmasterGM "leave the possibility" that redtail896 faked his response to Hoopla?

Considering that redtail896's response was knee-jerk, and Hoopla's action could not be reasonably predicted, there was no reason to doubt redtail896 was town.

AGM did not try to get redtail896 lynched because

I was doing that for him

. Kihihi. Look at this from my post 902:

I know where VRK stands. I know where you stand. Where does AlmasterGM stand? "Well, maybe it's Equinox, but

there's that possibility that it's redtail896 WIFOMing us all

." BS. You and VRK have solid opinions about who is scum. I have a solid opinion about who is scum. AlmasterGM is slippery in this regard.

Click the link, read it, and you will see that my summary there is pretty much spot-on. He left enormous wiggle room for a slot that didn't need wiggle room.

With regard to the first post, I gave a very clear reason for not posting much and justified it. My actions were the objectively optimal play. We should NOT have been feeding the scum information then - there was simply no reason to do so.

Objectively correct? That's up for debate and MD discussion.

However, the rest of the town already ruined that by posting their suspicions. The point of doing what you did is to have the WHOLE TOWN shut up and move past MyLo. Instead, we had at least 2 townies (I'd argue 3, but you're claiming that I'm scum) post their thoughts. That kind of killed the whole point of not discussing in MyLo, didn't it? What's the point of shutting up then?

I will also ask you, VRK, to think about what AGM just said here... and then go back to where AGM ASKED REDTAIL896 TO POST HIS THOUGHTS.

Contradiction?

Am I going to pull AlmasterGM into an epic wall battle? Maybe, maybe not. It depends on how desperate I am to get obvscum lynched, but seriously, at this point I'm willing to eat a loss if it means ending this game.

Therefore, I am no longer responding to AlmasterGM's points.

Twist my shit all you like, scumbag. You're good at it.

tl;dr

AlmasterGM is correct when he says I found that much dirt on him in 38 pages. That part is somewhat true -- he's played an excellent game, bussed the people he needed to bus at the correct times. Zachrulez screamed, "Bus me!" and he did it. G&H wasn't even trying, so AlmasterGM pushed that one for maximum town cred, and he got it.

But, VRK, you've reread the thread. Do you remember Day 1, when Hoopla claimed PGO? Why did Hoopla later conclude AGM was scummy for that in post 125?

Breaking this up into two posts.

[Equinox]

If the above was an offense post, this is a defense post.

Nobody KNOWS because he played lurk-o-tron-wish-o-wash the whole game hrmmm hrmmmmmmmmmm.

ConfidAnon does that everywhere. I present Open 233 as evidence. ConfidAnon was lurky and opportunistic, and he admitted he wasn't that invested in the game. I lynched him, and he flipped town.

Last line of defense:

I am a vanilla townie.

The fact that it's in red text probably doesn't mean anything, and if I bring up my meta behind it, everyone's going to go "WIFOM!" But that's my final word here.

Vel-Rahn Koon... go with your gut. Even if it means voting me.

[Equinox]

Oh, hey, I missed that AlmasterGM did respond to 902. Here's the original post 860, with my bolds for emphasis:

Redtail's argument makes lots of sense.

But we still no-lynch.

Because even considering all of redtail's arguments,

there is ALSO the microscopic possibility that redtail is scum and that he chose not to kill

(I'm assuming no kill was a choice at this point because I'm not doctor either and I VRK wouldn't push for self-lynch as doc) because he didn't want to raise questions as to why he was still around in lylo.

Yes, that's a boatload of WIFOM. And I don't buy it at all.

Like, 99.99% sure it's not the case.

The most likely possibilities is either 1) scum wanted to drop the WIFOM nuke (70%) or 2) Equinox-scum who doesn't like his odds against VRK, as per redtail's theories (30%).

But we still no-lynch, just to be 100% safe. We aren't going to walk into LOLing scum because we did something stupid.

I'll leave this up to VRK to interpret. I still stand by my opinion that post 860 was pretty damn ugly.

[Equinox]

Yeah, it seems I'm pretty desperate to get AlscumGM lynched... but this is my last serial post, I swear. >_>

I referenced this in my wall post, but I've decided to provide the actual quotes.

From post 919:

With regard to the first post, I gave a very clear reason for not posting much and justified it. My actions were the objectively optimal play. We should NOT have been feeding the scum information then - there was simply no reason to do so.

AlmasterGM's stance since Day 5 has been to not feed scum information.

This was from Day 5, addressed to redtail896:

Why don't you just tell us who you want to lynch and then we can take that into consideration?

[Equinox]

AlmasterGM, smears work best in political campaigns, not Mafia games. Just thought you'd like to know that.

The defense rests.

[Equinox]

...and the people accuse

me

of twisting words. How utterly hypocritical.

If this were not LyLo, I would not have given that advice. Logic trumps gut in earlier game phases, yes, because you have the distinct division between townish people and scummy people. In LyLo, where you're left with only the most suspicious people, purely using logic will pull you into a WIFOM trap. That is why you use gut in LyLo, particularly 3p LyLo.

I'm not going to lie. I had a specific situation in mind when I directed that at Vel-Rahn Koon, namely Newbie 940 where I was wrongly hammered because town #2 decided to follow his logic read instead of his gut read.

However, this is the same advice I would give if I were ICing a newbie game.

[Equinox]

What WIFOM trap is going on here?

Wow. I can't believe you just said that.

---

In other news, lack of hammer makes me sad. :<

If it's taken you this long and you haven't decided yet, the time is nigh to follow your heart and vote gut. Seriously.

[Equinox]

Fun fact: Equinox has never won a LyLo. Ever. This game continues that streak.

Congratulations, AlmasterGM. You played this one well, and it paid off. I'd avoid things like this in the future, though.

What can I say? This loss was partly my fault; if I'd actually read everything on Day 4, I'd have realized that AlmasterGM had a crap case on Kid Know Nothing. Alas, a lesson I should have learned ages ago...

So, uh, yeah. I think I have a few comments once endgame rolls around.

[Equinox]

So, yeah... this game.

Spoiler: Comments on my own play

I never actually read the whole thing. I may have gotten anywhere from 80% to 90% of it, but the disjointed manner in which I went through the thread and the fact that I never had a complete picture really didn't help. I don't think I'll be replacing into any 20+-page games for a

long

time.

In hindsight, I could have done

much

better for Day 4. As Hoopla said, the result cleared Kid Know Nothing, especially with the meta Good and Honest provided in the game. Props to AlmasterGM for making a convincing case, and coals to Equinox for completely missing the contradiction in it. A very difficult lesson to learn...

Day 5, I managed to dig dirt on a confirmed townie. I'm really not proud of that one. Sorry, redtail896.

Hoopla, seriously, you're a genius.

Playing with Vel-Rahn Koon was interesting. I was really surprised to see him practically plead town to lynch him before LyLo, but that did work out pretty well in that it cleared him (eventually).

Good and Honest, I never saw the other two links you posted... probably because I ended up skimming past your humongous walls, even when I tried to do an isolation read of you.

Not much else to say here.

Thanks for modding, Espeonage!

[Equinox]

Equinox, I like the fact that you are using red text to show that you're telling the truth. But what is the meaning of the blue text?

I actually broke one of my own rules doing that in this game. When I did it in a previous game, I swore to myself that I would never use it to claim alignment or role, as that would seriously break my meta. I became desperate here, even though I figured that nobody was going to recognize it, and it was just going to be WIFOM even if they did.

So, yeah. I don't think I'm going to do that anymore...

I use blue text to emphasize an argument I'm making.