Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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Alright, first did an iso-read of Peabody looking for connections.
The strongest connection I found was the complete lack of connection between him and le Chat. He's the only player in the game whom Peabody neither attacked nor defended in any way (everyone else, living AND dead, was at least minorly defended or lightly attacked). In fact, aside from answering a few questions le Chat asks him, Peabody doesn't mention him at all.
On the other side, le Chat asked a few noncommittal questions of Peabody, but otherwise defended him (in his special half-hearted way).
The overall pattern of fence sitting and infrequent voting doesn't hurt the case, either.
I'd say as of right now, le chat (now DDD) is my choice for the lynch.-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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I'm sorry. Full player lists for the sake of full player lists don't really work for me. I prefer not to talk about my town reads unless there's some definite advantage to doing so (which will outweigh painting a nk bullseye on their backs). Right now I don't see how it would do anyone any good.
I prefer having people ask me questions about specific players, or better yet, specific actions and events. That way we can have an exchange of information---you get to find out what I think, and I get to find out what kind of things you most want to know. That way, if someone wants to fish for my opinion on a certain player, they have to ask for it right out in the open where everyone can see it.-
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Raskol Goon
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Actually, I've found in my (limited) experience playing as scum that knowing what everyone thinks of everyone else is incredibly useful when deciding whom to attack and nk. 'Townie presence' isn't something that just exists 'out there' and can be sensed by anyone like checking to see what time it is---in actual play it's largely a matter of individual perception. True, people tend to see a lot of the same things as being townie, but there's more disagreement than you might expect, and it's invaluable to get it straight from the townies themselves---especially when it's given to you without anyone knowing you wanted to know it.Hoopla wrote:
I think the supposed downfall of players 'painting targets' on townies for NK's is a load of rubbish. Scum aren't brainless morons (usually), playing a different game to us. They can sense who has a town-presence amongst the group - don't you when you're scum?Raskol wrote:I'm sorry. Full player lists for the sake of full player lists don't really work for me. I prefer not to talk about my town reads unless there's some definite advantage to doing so (which will outweigh painting a nk bullseye on their backs). Right now I don't see how it would do anyone any good.
I prefer having people ask me questions about specific players, or better yet, specific actions and events. That way we can have an exchange of information---you get to find out what I think, and I get to find out what kind of things you most want to know. That way, if someone wants to fish for my opinion on a certain player, they have to ask for it right out in the open where everyone can see it.
Overall, I'd say that yes, having players volunteer their neutral and townie reads is very helpful for a scum player. That doesn't mean I think it's a bad idea per se (after all, it helps town too)...it just means I think it should be done in certain ways and at certain times. All at once in a big summary post is not one of those ways, and right now is not one of those times.
I didn't say I wouldn't talk about town-reads at all. I just said that I won't hand out a summary of all my thoughts on the entire game without anyone having to put themselves out there for specific information. I'm fine giving out any and all info as long as the person who wants it is forced to let everyone know what they wanted to know and why. I feel like a conversational exchange between players about specific details of the game brings out more information about all of them and is better for town in pretty much every way than having someone give out a general summary of their 'thoughts about everyone'. Better yet, it forces scum to actually engage with me if they want info out of me (and if they're good, they want info out of everyone)...which lets me learn about them at the same time.Only talking about your scum reads gives you immense personal wriggle-room for later in the game, as you have no previous opinions you need to correct or restate. I'd rather the entire town declare the entirity of their thinking, than keeping tricks up their sleeve. Scum players like to have options.-
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Raskol Goon
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No, you're wanting to lynch me because you're too lazy to ask your own questions and/or you're pissed that you didn't get your own way.
I will repeat myself, much as I hate doing it: I will give any info you want, but I do not do full player list summary posts. If you don't like that, and you want to ragevote me, then go ahead.-
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Raskol Goon
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Here's an example of the kind of post I respond well to: can anyone besides Cyberbob show me an example of a post they have made where they've given reasons to lynch CoCo other than the fact that he was a VI?
In other words, can anyone make an actual case, or is this a lynch of laziness/policy?
(Specific question, with a definite answer. Alignment relevant and game-furthering. Revealing of the questioner's thought processes and capable of being built upon for further discussion)-
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Raskol Goon
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I'd say the points about CoCo defending Peabody and jumping on and off his wagon are valid ones---but he was hardly the only one to do either of those things.Hoopla wrote: I'm still at odds about what to do with CoCo. For those opposed to the 'easy lynch', do you think he would act any differently as scum? The facts are he defended Peabody on multiple occasions, especially early for the random vote thing (see here: 1, 2, 3, 4)
After this early foray of defenses, he decides to iso-read Peabody and conveniently does a 180 and jumps on with the L-1 vote. I know everyone is finding it difficult to read CoCo, but this is a signifigant enough piece of evidence - especially when he rarely, if ever defended any other player. It seems to me he was trying to deter suspicion on Peabody early, then as it became increasingly likely he was going to be lynched, he had to somehow change his views to jump on and gain some town credit.
This theory is also quantified by the way he acted toward my early bandwagon. You'll note he was on edge when my wagon reached 4 and 5 votes. I think a similar thing happened when Peabody reached the same mark, he genuinely felt his Peabody's lynch was inevitable, and had to change his views knowing what Peabody would flip.
This smorgasbord of evidence is enough for me to think he is probably scum. This does not even include points I posted throughout D1 (such as bringing up his own two-game meta to try and defend himself, and his late flip-flopping on Peabody).
So, my question to those who don't think CoCo is scum is; what would CoCo have to do, for you to consider lynching him? Despite being anti-town, people only oppose his lynch because it seems too obvious. This is a bad trap to fall into as it allows him to get away with anything that could be construed as lying or a scumtell. The lynches become more important each day, and we don't want to be in a situation where he is alive in Lylo.
Of living players, both SC and le Chat also defended Peabody (maybe others that I don't remember), and charter jumped off the Peabody wagon when it had gotten to L-1---doing a complete 180 of his own and voting mathcam.
So yes, there are some connections between CoCo and Peabody that could be scummy---CoCo defending Peabody, and acting erratically on his bandwagon. I don't think those actions particularly stand out, though, because there were other players who did similarly. I might be biased on that, but that's my stance.
OTOH, Peabody went after CoCo pretty hard, but ignored le Chat altogether, neither attacking nor defending him, while le Chat made a halfhearted, non-confrontational defense of Peabody. That, to me, is something which I find a far more likely indicator of a scumpair than the kind of blatant defenses that CoCo and SC offered, especially since Peabody's actions towards le Chat were unique in that respect---he didn't ignore anyone else.-
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Raskol Goon
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Got more, actually.Hoopla wrote: This theory is also quantified by the way he acted toward my early bandwagon. You'll note he was on edge when my wagon reached 4 and 5 votes. I think a similar thing happened when Peabody reached the same mark, he genuinely felt his Peabody's lynch was inevitable, and had to change his views knowing what Peabody would flip.
This doesn't really make any sense. Why would the fact that he responded the same way to a (let's assume) townie wagon as what turned out to be a scum wagon
In other words, you seem to be saying that his thought process was similar both times---but why would he react the same way to a townie wagon as to his partner's wagon?
If he really thought you were going to be lynched, why would he worry about it if he were scum? If he were, he'd know you were town (assuming you are) and would be glad to see you lynched on page 2 or 3 or whatever it was. Why wouldn't he have just watched it from the sidelines and waited for the quicklynch he was sure was inevitable?-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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bob, I'd love to see your theory on how that phrase furthers a scum wincon.
charter:
Alright! So...if you're so concerned that you don't know what I think about anyone else, why haven't you asked me any questions as I suggested?
It doesn't really sound like you're interested in finding anything out. Rather, it reeks of rage. You just want your summary post and are pissed you won't get it. Instead of actually being willing to cooperate with my playstyle, you throw a hissy and vote me.
Either that, or you're scum and see me as an easy lynch because I'm not playing the way people are used to. I don't think so, though.
By the way, I do apologize terribly for not blowing the lid off the game with mindblowing new insights. I'm talking about things that happened weeks ago, and some of the things I said might already have been mentioned before (although I don't think anyone pointed out that le chat was literally the only player whom peabody neither attacked nor defended in any way before I said it).
Also, for me, scumhunting and getting read son people is a process of interaction. I get stronger and better opinions of people after I've been able to poke them a bit and see how they jump. Reading other people's interactions and analyzing them after the fact isn't my strong point. I actually think of myself as being rather easy to read, but it comes out in the way I interact with people, not in summary posts. If at the end of the day you still have no idea what I think about anyone, you can go ahead and lynch me if it's really such a matter of concern for you. But whining that I won't have it all out for you by my second post isn't going to help you out, or anyone else.-
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Raskol Goon
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Pointing out irrational, emotional reactions doesn't hurt the town more than voting based on them does, no matter how much you dislike the phrasing.Cyberbob wrote:
I'm more interested in the fact that posts like that actively work against the town's "wincon" (this is a really stupid neologism), which indirectly works towards the scum's "wincon".Raskol wrote:bob, I'd love to see your theory on how that phrase furthers a scum wincon.-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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Before I replaced in, it was CoCo, actually. I've changed my mind now, obviously.Socrates wrote:Raskol, since you seem to need it explicitly asked for you to say it, who is second most likely to be scum to you after DDD?
At this point I'm really not sure. I would say SC, but I feel like it's a lazy read and I'm not comfortable with it. If I had to lynch someone now and coudln't choose le Chat, it would be him.
I'm still in the process of reading through the thread again (reading as a spectator and readig as a player are completely different, turns out :p) and looking through people in isolation, especially some of the ones who haven't been coming under suspicion much (cyberbob, hoopla, and mathcam). This game feels like there are a few people who have been singled out for stupid play, lurking, or what have you, with everyone else having gotten a free ride for a long time. One of the people who has been promoting this the most actively, I think, has been Hoopla, and that's why right now I'm looking at her.-
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Raskol Goon
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Even if there's a 3 person scum team, it still lowers the odds.Cyberbob wrote:
This line of attack is entirely dependent on there only being 2 scum in the game (including Peabody). How do you know there aren't 3?Raskol wrote:moments before, charter wrote: Ah, ok, I see what you're saying. Yes, hiding behind Coco doesn't seem possible without an obvious breadcrumb.
Or maybe youdoknow?
And before I replaced in, charter (by his posts anyway) wasn't preferring a CoCo lynch.
So basically, between the time I replaced in and now, charter has admitted to evidence that suggests I'm not scum, and yet is still more willing to vote for me than he was before he had acknowledged that evidence. (if he were being rational, it would be the other way around).
That suggests to me that his vote on me is a product of his frustration that I didn't give him a full summary post when he asked me to.-
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Raskol Goon
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I was planning to say it at some point. Just not in a pbpa summary post.Socrates wrote:Why didn't you just say this earlier?
I really think the reactions to this position of mine are way overblown. I've given out more info about my thoughts in the past few pages than just about anyone else, and for a smart player, a lot of things that should be very telling, and yet I'm still being treated as if I refuse to say anything simply because I won't make a certainkindof post.-
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Raskol Goon
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Look, basically mt position right now is this: I am going to be posting content, but it will take time. In the meantime, if you want something specific out of me, ask for it and I will look into it and tell you what I think. Until then, just wait and allw ill be revealed. If, at the end of the day, you feel like you're not satisfied with the reads I've given you, you're free to lynch me. Until then, stop the whining.
Of course, this doesn't apply to charter, who has stated that he's locked his vote and is unwilling to consider new information.-
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Raskol Goon
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Just finished my isoread on Hoopla. As of right now I'm not willing to vote for her after all, mostly because of the way she pushed the peabody lynch D1.
I had been suspicious of her because from my partial reread of day 1 yesterday she seemed to be playing metamafia rather than mafia, with an emphasis on discussing overarching theory more than discussing players' alignments, but I suppose since then she's done enough to make me doubt she's only trying to appear to contribute, and her voting history/attitude towards the various wagons seems solid.
I'm not comfortable clearing anyone else with a townie read until I've had a bit more time to feel things out, so you'll have to make do with just the one.
After looking more closely at the Peabody wagon, I'd say my next two favorite targets after le Chat would be SC and charter, in that order. That's subject to change on further reading, of course. (will try to look at each of them in iso in the next few days---I haven't really paid as much attention to day 2 as I'd like yet either)-
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Raskol Goon
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What a bunch of bullshit. My first post in the game was a case on my top suspect, and I've I haven't sat back for a second since. I did say that people who wanted info out of me beyond what I'm already volunteering independently would have to ask questions in order to get it, but I've in no way been "hanging back"just waitingfor questions. True, I've had to spend a good amount of my time defending myself, but even in that I think a lot of information has come out, and not just about me.
In any case, such an accusation as "hanging back not actively seeking scum" is hilarious coming from a guy who was waiting on le Chat before he was willing to contributeanything, and has been in the game from near the start and says he doesn't have much of a read on anything. I'm finding your sudden change of heart extremely fishy, especially after your last few mentions of CoCo were things like this:
SerialClergyman wrote:His (Peabody's) exchange with coco in this post and this post is indicative of him not being partners with coco, I think.
So before now you thought CoCo was town.SerialClergyman wrote:477 means Coco is likely to be town. He definitely looked to me like Peabody's scapegoat lynch.
But now, you come in and see me under attack, and you think to yourself: mislynch ahoy! So you conjure up a few sentences about me pretty much echoing charter's BS (which I think may be genuine, if wrong, unlike yours) and cast your vote, confident of being supported.
Well, fuck that. I may in fact get lynched today, but if I do, you're not going to come out of it clean. I've understood, if not agreed with, the other attacks on me, but as far as I'm concerned, your last post is the vote of an opportunistic mafioso.
Unvote
vote: SerialClergyman-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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No, I really don't agree. The momentum in the last few days has been clearly shifted towards me. I may be partially at fault there, but the point remains.SerialClergyman wrote:On the contrary, the le chat wagon was the easy path. I was on early, almost everyone feels that that playerslot is scummy in one way or another and it's maintaining the status quo. So charges of taking an easy option that will be obviously supported are not particularly reasonable - I doubt this will be particularly more supported and it will definitely be 'harder' on me than just sitting on le chat.
And the coincidence between that and your "I just changed my mind" is a bit much for me to believe.-
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Raskol Goon
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Well, let's see. In the past few pages, 4 people besides yourself have expressed a willingness (or even a growing willingness) to lynch me. You make 5. That's a majority, and some people haven't even weighed in yet.
How can you not see how this is a perfect place for you to jump in with a vote if you're scum? The fact that you do so now, despite having been entirely pro-CoCo recently, on very flimsy evidence, makes it even scummier. Basically everything about that vote screams opportunistic scum.-
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Raskol Goon
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0: I actually did mention all those things earlier (except for the charter thing), if not in the same words I just used.
1: Here's where I pointed out where I think you misrepresented me:
2: What you said aboutRaskol wrote:What a bunch of bullshit. My first post in the game was a case on my top suspect, and I've I haven't sat back for a second since. I did say that people who wanted info out of me beyond what I'm already volunteering independently would have to ask questions in order to get it, but I've in no way been "hanging back"just waitingfor questions. True, I've had to spend a good amount of my time defending myself, but even in that I think a lot of information has come out, and not just about me.mewas pretty much a repeat of charter's complaint.
3: It would be less scummy if you weren't simultaneously parroting his read of me, but atm it feels like buddying.
4: I wouldn't vote for you based on that alone, but the fact remains that you defended Peabody (and he defended you).
5: I never said anything about emotional/irrational displays posting, just voting and decision making (and by the way, even if I had, using a few vehement expressions does not an irrational post make). This is more misrep.
6: I think I have a bit more of an excuse than you for not having as solid a read on things as I would like than you do, given the fact that I've only been in the game as a participant for a few days.-
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Why are you pretending as if I still haven't said anything about anyone but le Chat? Have you actually been reading the thread?charter wrote:He's refusing to do much and justifying it by saying, 'well, it will just help scum'. I'd argue that it helps town more than scum, but that's not really the point. I think it's scummy to use that excuse to avoid giving opinions on people. I really see no town reason for him to not talk about more than just le Chat. Plus, I'm pretty sure I've been caught as scum trying to pass off 'it helps scum' as a reason for not answering a question.-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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So you're going to maintain that you still have no idea what I think about anyone but le Chat?charter wrote:This has been made abundantly clear by myself, cyberbob, and anyone else voting you. Have you actually been reading the thread?
I know you've already as much as said you would refuse to consider new information, but I didn't think you reallymeantit.-
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O_o
At this point, I don't think there's anything I could possibly do to convince you. The sheer level of thickheaded irrationality you're displaying is just beyond my ability to cope with without getting genuinely personal, and at this point I feel like it will be more productive if I don't talk with you any further on this point. Instead, I'm going to quote all the posts I've made in the past few pages which give my opinions on the game, so that those players who are capable of rational thought can look at them and judge for themselves whether you're being fair.
Raskol wrote:
Before I replaced in, it was CoCo, actually. I've changed my mind now, obviously.Socrates wrote:Raskol, since you seem to need it explicitly asked for you to say it, who is second most likely to be scum to you after DDD?
At this point I'm really not sure. I would say SC, but I feel like it's a lazy read and I'm not comfortable with it. If I had to lynch someone now and coudln't choose le Chat, it would be him.
I'm still in the process of reading through the thread again (reading as a spectator and readig as a player are completely different, turns out :p) and looking through people in isolation, especially some of the ones who haven't been coming under suspicion much (cyberbob, hoopla, and mathcam). This game feels like there are a few people who have been singled out for stupid play, lurking, or what have you, with everyone else having gotten a free ride for a long time. One of the people who has been promoting this the most actively, I think, has been Hoopla, and that's why right now I'm looking at her.Raskol wrote:
Even if there's a 3 person scum team, it still lowers the odds.Cyberbob wrote:
This line of attack is entirely dependent on there only being 2 scum in the game (including Peabody). How do you know there aren't 3?Raskol wrote:moments before, charter wrote: Ah, ok, I see what you're saying. Yes, hiding behind Coco doesn't seem possible without an obvious breadcrumb.
Or maybe youdoknow?
And before I replaced in, charter (by his posts anyway) wasn't preferring a CoCo lynch.
So basically, between the time I replaced in and now, charter has admitted to evidence that suggests I'm not scum, and yet is still more willing to vote for me than he was before he had acknowledged that evidence. (if he were being rational, it would be the other way around).
That suggests to me that his vote on me is a product of his frustration that I didn't give him a full summary post when he asked me to.Raskol wrote:Just finished my isoread on Hoopla. As of right now I'm not willing to vote for her after all, mostly because of the way she pushed the peabody lynch D1.
I had been suspicious of her because from my partial reread of day 1 yesterday she seemed to be playing metamafia rather than mafia, with an emphasis on discussing overarching theory more than discussing players' alignments, but I suppose since then she's done enough to make me doubt she's only trying to appear to contribute, and her voting history/attitude towards the various wagons seems solid.
I'm not comfortable clearing anyone else with a townie read until I've had a bit more time to feel things out, so you'll have to make do with just the one.
After looking more closely at the Peabody wagon, I'd say my next two favorite targets after le Chat would be SC and charter, in that order. That's subject to change on further reading, of course. (will try to look at each of them in iso in the next few days---I haven't really paid as much attention to day 2 as I'd like yet either)
But of course, I never give out any information. Just ask charter.Raskol wrote:SerialClergyman wrote:His (Peabody's) exchange with coco in this post and this post is indicative of him not being partners with coco, I think.
So before now you thought CoCo was town.SerialClergyman wrote:477 means Coco is likely to be town. He definitely looked to me like Peabody's scapegoat lynch.
But now, you come in and see me under attack, and you think to yourself: mislynch ahoy! So you conjure up a few sentences about me pretty much echoing charter's BS (which I think may be genuine, if wrong, unlike yours) and cast your vote, confident of being supported.
Well, fuck that. I may in fact get lynched today, but if I do, you're not going to come out of it clean. I've understood, if not agreed with, the other attacks on me, but as far as I'm concerned, your last post is the vote of an opportunistic mafioso.-
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I don't blame people who already thought CoCo was the best lynch choice before I came in (that would be, off the top of my head, hoopla nad cyberbob).charter wrote:And plus, if YOU even thought CoCo was scummy before you got in, how do you blame anyone else for finding him suspicious? Kind of a no brainer.
It's the people who changed their minds in favor of voting for me for halfbaked reasons I'm concerned with.
By the way, if your summary of my posts was really all you got out of them, then I really would suggest you find a physician who specializes in diagnosing learning disabilities. I'm pretty sure every post I made said at the least more than 'nothing'. Of course, if you're simply misrepresenting me in order to avoid having to back down on one of your points, then you can forget about that suggestion---but in that case I'd suggest you rethink your stance.-
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I have, so far, given my top three targets, a confident town-read, and a case on two of my top three targets. If I haven't said anything about the remaining three players in the game, it's because I'm not sure about them.charter wrote:By nothing I mean you don't give your opinion on other players' alignments. All that I know about what you think of other players' alignments is DDD is scum and HOopla is town. But there's no vote or anything to actually show this, so who knows.
Why am I still arguing this?
To put it pretty briefly, your assertion that you can't tell anything about my stance except with regard to le chat is completely baseless and yes, continuing to argue it is making you look stupid. (I agree with you that you should stop)-
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Go to the mod then, but quit wasting my time. I care as little for your preferences in my choice of words as you care for mine.Cyberbob wrote:The correct response to a request for you to stop being insulting is not to question why you are being seen as insulting. I do not care about your preferences with regards to the amount of time it takes to write something; if you make another insult during the duration of game I will be going to the mod.-
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Raskol Goon
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If anything I've done so far is grounds for my time being ended, I'd be more than happy to have it end. I wouldn't want to play in a game that catered to players' silly aversions to particular words, so long as they're not racial slurs or the like.Cyberbob wrote:
I am less interested in wasting your time than I am in ending it.Raskol wrote:quit wasting my time-
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Raskol Goon
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I may have gone a bit over the line yesterday. I wasn't feeling well (nasal infection). I stand by what I said, though, if not the way I said it.
Also, I'm afraid I have no meta to point to that shows how I defend myself, as this is the first time I've ever been bandwagoned.
Anyway, Danny, although I appreciate your defense of me, I would agree in liking to see more from you than just that.-
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http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ButtHurtCyberbob wrote:
I'm not picking on the word (it is a gay slur btw) so much as I am picking on the fact that he seems to think that making any kind of personal attack is acceptable behaviour if it's done in the name of "saving effort".mathcam wrote:Bob: I think you're way over-reacing to butthurt. Are you interpreting it as a gay slur? I took it as a synonym for "pain in the ass," which is a fairly mild epithet.
I'd rather not spend any more time focusing on this issue, so I will leave it at that. My threat regarding Kublai does still stand though.
http://www.sarcasmsociety.com/irony/dramaticThrowing around the "VI" word so liberally is showing a complete ignorance of the game. Sorry.-
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Raskol Goon
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Translation: "I have no interest in finding scum and prefer to lynch people based on my own personal likes and dislikes."charter wrote:The fact that Raskol is trying to defend his insulting behavior instead of just dropping it makes me EVEN HAPPIER lynching him. Seems like he's willing to fight anyone about anything.-
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Raskol Goon
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I consider getting charter to admit that his vote on me is based on policy and emotion rather than my probable alignment is an advance, as it allows people who might not be interested in letting his feelings dictate the outcome of the game make a better decision about whether they should hop on my wagon. Avoiding mislynches is helpful, don't you think?mathcam wrote:You two think you're scoring points with these pithy one-liners, but you're really just making yourselves out to be asses more interested in one-upping one another than advancing the game.
Let's lynch DDD.
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Raskol Goon
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People I'm willing to lynch:SC, Danny, Charter.
I'm also kinda considering hammering myself in case I get another vote. I've never been lynched before and I've been kinda curious to experience it---besides, I'd enjoy seeing the look on certain people's faces (figuratively speaking) when they see my flip. At this point it seems highly doubtful that the town is going to win anyway, so it would probably be worth it for that alone. Besides, this game seems to be slowing down, and to be honest, I'm losing interest.
In the interests of contributing, though, here's some advice: if I do get lynched, you guys should consider trying a no lynch tomorrow.
Anyway, it doesn't seem like the SC wagon is going anywhere, so I'll go for Danny now.unvote
vote: Debonair Danny DiPietro-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol
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Raskol Goon
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I didn't say I was being persecuted. I'm just making fun of them a bit (mafia is supposed to be fun, don't you think?). Cyberbob's comment about calling CoCo a VI showing "ignorance of the game" was especially funny.mathcam wrote:Oh give it a rest, Raskol. You're not being persecuted here -- you got in a mildly heated (lukewarm at worst) disagreement with another player. It's going to happen from time to time, so get used to it. And you're self-hammer comment isn't helping your cause any.
Cam
Of course, if they're scum (and I think charter at least might be), they're doing a wonderful job.
No lynch is because a 5-person LyLo is better than a 6-person MyLo.-
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Raskol Goon
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Raskol Goon
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Interesting answer, especially given the things you've been attacking me for today.charter wrote:
Yeah, I'm not saying this until others say if they're willing to vote you. It can definitely influence others' opinion on whether or not they would vote you. Scummy, but good try though.Raskol wrote:
Just out of curiosity...where else would you be willing to put your vote at this point?charter wrote:Well, the way I see it is we need two of Hoopla, mathcam and Socrates to vote Raskol, if that's not going to happen, my vote is going elsewhere.
Will probably be useful info later.
If DDD flips town, I'm pretty sure charter and SC are our scumbuddies.-
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Raskol Goon
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Actually, it's called process of elimination.charter wrote:
I'd also like to point out that this kind of setting up lynches is abhorrently antitown and I'm betting that he knows that a DDD lynch followed by a charter/SC lynch would be game.Raskol wrote:If DDD flips town, I'm pretty sure charter and SC are our scumbuddies.
If the rest of the town thinks charter's made a good point, consider this: at this point, I would be only slightly less happy with a lynch of myself than a lynch of Danny.
Danny would have little reason to defend me if he is scum and I am town, so afaic a town flip from me would be as useful in clearing Danny as his town flip would be. In fact, it might even be better, since it would clear me completely (removing a major source of doubt), and go a good way towards clearing Danny.
So if you think charter has a point here, and are afraid that I might be scum setting up lynches, then lynch me first instead.
(ofc, a Danny lynch has the obvious upside that I think he really might be scum, so that would make me more at ease---but lynching me might help the rest of the town get their minds clear, and if that's the case then go for it)
A difficult swallow indeed.charter wrote: This raises an interesting point though, this would mean that one of mathcam, Cyberbob, Hoopla, Socrates is Raskol's partner, which is a difficult swallow right now.
I think someone who is good at reading (iow, not you) could come up with some other very plausible explanations why I'd be suspecting you and SC together, just by reading the posts on this page.charter wrote:
Well, since you refuse to be helpful, I have to fill in the blanks myselfRaskol wrote:Why on earth would you think that's my basis? Did I say anything like that?
I think a better explanation is that you saw me out you, panicked, and then made a hasty and poorly thought out post trying to discredit me by attributing some terrible reasoning to my theory.
Yes, definitely very bizarre. So tell me again, why do you expect people to believe it?charter wrote: Neither of us are voting DDD, so it seems bizarre (to say the least) that you try and chain lynch one of us.-
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How is it an AtE if there's a good reason behind it? Telling people to lynch you isn't always done out of frustration or self-pity, you know.
I honestly think my flip might be more valuable to the town than my continued existence.
Of course, I'd prefer seeing you or charter lynched today, but I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone to do so without having cleared myself as town first.
That's why I'm doing what I'm doing. If people are willing to believe me that I'm town, then we should lynch DDD. If they're not, we should lynch me. If we lynch me, then I'm cleared and people will know that I have no ulterior motives. If we lynch Danny and he's scum, then great---we lynched scum. If we lynch Danny and he flips town, then that helps clear me too---because at that point my only possible partners would be people who are more townie than average.
Either way, we lynch one of me or Danny and then if it's a town flip, we no lynch the next day. After that, we lynch either you or charter, and we have a good chance of winning.-
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Raskol Goon
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Just wanted to point out that this is pure WIFOM.SerialClergyman wrote:Arg, simulpost city.
The lining up lynches thing isn't as bad near the end of the game as it is near the start, but it's still a pretty shoddy principle. In this specific case, it makes zero sense because if charter and I were on a team together, presumably we'd have been perfectly happy to go with a le chat/DDD lynch if he's town rather than stir up trouble by voting for Raskol.
So the logic to me is worse than the principle in that suggestion.
There are an endless number of reasons you would have wanted to switch over to me (in fact, we've been over this already).-
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Raskol Goon
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The difference between DDD and I being cleared by the other's town flip and your "but why would I do that" defense is that there are clear reasons I can give why Danny would be better off attacking than defending me if he's scum, and why I'm less likely to be scum if Danny's not my partner.
On the other hand, in the case of you and charter attacking me, there's absolutely no reason why youwouldn'tdo it, beyond your "well, why would we need to?" remark.
This is why your point is WIFOM and mine is not.
(related point: I'd like all the people who are highly suspicious of me at this point to list the people they think could possibly be my partners in crime)
And to answer your question about DDD: I'm beginning to think that DDD is town, but I'm willing to lynch him because firstly, I'm not absolutelysurehe's town and will be more comfortable lynching you once I know his alignment for sure, and second, I take much the same attitude towards his flip at this point as I do my own: if he's town, his lynch will clear two townies (one completely and one partially), leaving us with two credible suspects that have a very good chance of being partners.
If I had to give my proposed strategy in three words at this point, it would beprocess of elimination.-
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Raskol Goon
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I can't force anyone to do anything. I'm just making suggestions---it's your job to evaluate them and make up your own mind.Cyberbob wrote:Process of elimination is a really horrible strategy unless the game is something like a Smalltown, where you have a lot of roles and you know where all the roles are. You can't just lock the town into a set course of action based on current knowledge, and you can't plan for every eventuality (as much as you might try with your "contingencies").
I will be more than happy to lynch you today, but I'm not going to be railroaded into only looking at a specific few as viable lynches tomorrow.
Answer these questions for me, though:
1. Assume, for the sake of argument, that you had a town flip from either Danny or myself, and good new reason to believe that the remaining player is also town. In this hypothetical situation where Danny and I are both cleared, who besides charter and SC would you think is a viable contender for being our remaining scum (ie, better than random chance, as opposed to worse than random)?
2. Besides Danny, who would you be willing to believe is my scumpartner?-
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MyLo=mislynch and losemathcam wrote:
MyLo? And that statement's only valid in vanilla games...or at least it's only sure-fire in vanilla games. Otherwise we'd be no-lynching every day from the start.No lynch is because a 5-person LyLo is better than a 6-person MyLo.
Last couple of pages have been very interesting. Gonna take a bit to parse.
Cam
Assuming we lynch town today, there will be 4 townies and (probably) 2 scum alive tomorrow.
Lynching another townie tomorrow will result in a loss (lynch +nk=2town2scum=endgame'd). Base chance of hitting scum tomorrow with 6 people alive is 33%.
OTOH, no lynch gives scum the opportunity to kill off another townie, increasing base chances of hitting scum to 40%. Worst case scenario is the scum don't NK and you're back to where you started, except having gained more time for discussion.
If you're concerned that the NK might be a PR, then do a massclaim before deciding whether to no lynch or not.-
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Raskol Goon
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I just want to point out that comments like this are a major scumtell.SerialClergyman wrote:Damn this game is frustrating.
I cannot get a damn handle on it at all.
Forming reads as scum is always more difficult than doing it as town, as scum already know everyone's alignment and have to spend a lot of mental energy creatively coming up with false reads, while making sure those reads don't interfere with their goal of staying concealed and getting mislynches.
I'd also like to call attention to the sharp rise in SC's activity levels around the times when I've expressed suspicion of him. Make of that what you will-
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Raskol Goon
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Okay. Now, for the kicker: do you think there's anything to what I've said about Danny and I being less likely to be scum if the other isn't?Cyberbob wrote:So basically you want to know I think is most likely to be scum out of Hoopla, Socrates and mathcam?
In a situation like that I would be looking hardest at Socrates and Hoopla. Socrates replaced Vaya, who had a fair amount of baggage hanging over his head before the thing with the roleblock setting him as more likely to be town in many people's eyes. Hoopla hasn't been as active as I would prefer, though what posts she does make are generally on the mark.
IOW, how much stock are you willing to put into the idea that Danny wouldn't defend me if he's scum and I'm town? Are you willing to consider him less scummy if you get a town flip from me?
To be clear, I don't think it's absolutely certain myself---which is why I'd personally be happier lynching him first (ofc, the fact that you think there are other people likely to be my partner besides Danny makes this probably a non-factor for you)
Actually, how about this: in your opinion, would my town flip clear Danny more than Danny's town flip would clear me, or vice versa?
Fair enough---things like this are part of why a flip from one of us today will be so valuable.Cyberbob wrote: le Chat did both of these things - the former one in particular - and CoCo was a big fan of the activity levels thing. Just saying.-
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I don't think it will/does make him 100% confirmed, though, just a lot more likely to be town than he would be if he hadn't been defending me.
Even if I did think he was 100% confirmed town, his lynch would have the same advantages as my lynch does (and you'll note I'm willing to be lynched, despite being 100% confirmed to myself)---so I'm willing to lynch him for the same reasons, which you'll find I've explained pretty thoroughly over the past few pages.
Of course, none of this is optimal---I'd really prefer, in an ideal world, to lynch you right now. But I have to consider not only catching the sccum, butconvincing the town that I'm right.
I think that getting a town flip today from one of us is the only realistic way for me to do that, since I'm under such a high degree of suspicion. And since a mislynch today won't lose us the game, I'm willing to make a sacrifice in order to secure the eventual win.
Cyberbob---that's completely reasonable. I'm not in any way suggesting that any of this is certain. Things rarely are in this game. What I'm trying to do is set things up so we can play the odds to our benefit in the best way possible.-
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Cyberbob---the first part is for SC.
SC---I don't like that you're making me repeat myself, but here goes again: I think DDD is more likely to be town than I did before because he's defended me consistently and openly, even when doing so has made people more suspicious of him and despite the fact that it would be in his interests as scum to push my lynch as an alternative to his own, rather than going on you when no one else seems willing to vote you.
It's possible that he's being tricksy, but it would be a major risk.
Also, I really would like you to answer the question I posed in #1205.
Hoopla---I agree that balanced levels of participation are ideal, but in this case I've felt that I have a lot I need to say and I really have tried to be as succinct as possible (while still conveying everything I need to), at least today. I'll try to do better, but I can't promise a whole lot beyond avoiding any more convos that aren't clearly game-related.-
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