Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[SerialClergyman]

Hey guys, SC replacing in.

Allow me a bit of time to catch up and I'll go find the scum and solve this mess for you.

Sound good?

[SerialClergyman]

I acknowledge I've promised much and haven't delivered, so I shall promise some more and give you my thoughts within a day or two, I'm still struggling to find the time to re-read. Great apologies, friends.

[SerialClergyman]

he is now a fluent

englishman

Australian

I wish he was an affluent Australian instead

But I suppose it's better than being an effluent Australian.

I've finished my re-read, so I'll post my thoughts, but you'll have to excuse the lack of huge reasoning. I'm also redefining my scumreading with a different focus so we'll see how this goes.

Hoopla is town.
CoCo is town.
mathcam is town

Vaya is leaning town
le Chat is leaning town.

Finding it hard to get a read on or neutral:
Col Cathcart
charter
SensFan
Peabody

Cyberbob feels scumy but I can't put my finger on it. Gut scumread.

Talitha reads as scummy to me, and someone came close to it in thread. It's the activity after a vote. Twice now, once at 140 and once at 208 where she comes into the game significantly after suspicion was cast her way. Her reads are almost direct opposite of mine and I really didn't like her post where she was upset at one of her arguments being called dumb.

So I'll need to reread my non-reads to give you a complete picture of where i stand but this is a good one. I think the respond to suspicion tell is a good one and it's found me scum before.

On major issues:

Peabody having an RVS vote is in no way suspicious.
Attacking Sens and Harumafuki was legit (I finally understood your post after I replaced in - my god I read that 15 times not knowing what on earth you were talking about!)
The early bandwagon wasn't scummy. There could well be scum on the wagon, but 1/5 is meh odds anyway.

If anyone has anythign specific they desperately need me to expand upon let me know.

[SerialClergyman]

If you wouldn't mind pointing me to such games that'd be great.

It's not that I'm accusing you of posting too little, I think Sens takes the cake on that one, it's more to do with the timing. Even now, as you rightly pointed out, you respond immediately to a case made against you, it's just unusual. In fact, people who are busy in RL are even MORE suspicious when they respond to suspicion of themselves as quickly as you've been doing.

Can you please elaborate on how this might indicate I'm scum?

Because it's a way of appealing to emotion. By being offended at the argument against you you case people to feel a bit guilty and not push as hard. Hell, you're a busy mother of three who's just trying to dabble a bit in a game that gives you some pleasure in between running a busy household - even

I

feel guilty attacking you! You even thanked me for replacing in! I'm going to go call

my

mum after this and apologise for not writing to her more

And, how can you say "Her reads are almost direct opposite of mine" when of the people that I've mentioned, 2 of 3 most suspicious ar on your 'Finding it hard to get a read on or neutral' list?

It's hard to say why specifically without knowing the exact examples, but generally there's a reason why I don't have a read on someone. So for example, if I think the case on peabody is inheritly flawed due to the whole RVS thing being blown WAY out of proportion, and you made a read on him due to that, I'd say you had the opposite view to me.

Here you are more or less admitting that haven't read the thread very closely - if at all.

Try me. I've read the words that have been wasted on that event and personally view them to be nothing but hot air. The post had a number of questions directed at players that looked genuine to me and stated a position on the issue at the time. The post clearly delinearated the RVS part, it had a joke about sucking at maths, then moved on to his position and his questions. No copout at all. If it was just the top third of his post there might be something to it, as it is, that argument is rubbish.

Having said that, I wouldn't clear Peabody, there was some iffy parts to his game and I'm not sure where he stands, but that particular argument is a massive red herring.

Only 1/5? How do you know?

I'm going by what CoCo was hunting for. If he thought 2 or 3 scum were on the wagon it'd be worth persuing, but 'there is scum on the 5 person wagon' is not a particularly fruitful statement to make, I think.

[SerialClergyman]

Coco is town because of his stances and activity. His attacking of the wagon seemed genuine to me, and although I agree it wasn't particularly scummy, I can imagine someone without much experience in early wagons growing would be very alarmed to see it skyrocket like it did. I haven't actually agreed with him particularly much but his effort and attacks speak volumes to me. His long post with a summary at page five is a testment to that. Had he not been taking stances or pushing people, you might say there's elements of IIoA to it, but you can hardly accuse him of shying away from strong opinions and pressuring people.

mathcam is town because he has very considered opinions and isn't prepared to go with anything. He cut momentum on a wagon he was pushing by acknowledging why it was possible CoCo could have found the initial wagon scummy. He dismissed the attack on Peabody for being the red herring it was. He called out Cyberbob for his wishywashy appraisal of the initial argument. His post @ 128 reads as town to me. He unvoted when his arguments were satisfied and revoted when more came up. He has been very clear in his actions and posts. I read him as town.

Hoopla is town because she has forged ahead in pushing inactive people to post while still being clear on her position on major events. She seems transparent to me while taking an active role in getting the town up and at it. Her 263 post is fantastic, and her read on CoCo nailed it, imo. I think her discussion about the liklihood of hitting D1 scum is both true and gutsy.
(PS - this is why I am adjusting my playstyle to try to find a core group of players I can rule as town and work on hitting one of the rest. I think it's easier to identify town early, and even just a few people ruled out as town can really improve your lynching chance, even if there hasn't been time for scum to make a major mistake yet.)

My read on Vaya was based on her initial argument with CoCo but I think I'm downgrading that because the point that she has been very quiet since is definitely worrying. Her vote on Col Cath was also terribad. Consider her back to neutral/no read.

My read on le chat comes with just a small voice that is worrying to me. I find your playstyle inheritly scummy, right from the first post I was getting bad vibes from you, but once I got over it and started looking objectively I got over it. It's not enough to clear you for me, but it's enough to think you're town. Your catchup post looked obvtown to me.

I'll try to explain my gut scumread on Cyberbob.

His attacks seem to be always focused on a couple of quotable lines that in isolation are scummy. They are careful. He rarely opens his scope, just finds something small that is reasonable to attack and attacks it. It's not that his attacks aren't valid, it's that they are very mediocre. It looks like someone trying to find safe things to attack rather than someone trying to determine who scum is.

For example, here's a list of things which Cyberbob has attacked and his positions:

1) Says that the argument around the early wagon looks like a bunch of townies all shaking their fists at each other. This would be good except he then went on to say that he didn't mean he thought they were townies, rather it felt like a townie argument and he considered it a null tell. It started off looking like a good and reasonable position and ended up like a massive fence sit. No stance, no pushing people as town (something scum are often loathe to do), no weighing in on the major issue beyond the fact he wasn't weighing in at all and considered it a null tell for everyone involved in the debate.

2) Attacks Peabody for the RVS issue. You know my feelings on that, but either way, it's a safe little point. Forget his content, forget his game-specific positions and questions, focus on the quotable 2-line scummy point of an RVS vote after a bit of serious stuff had happened.

3) Attacks Peabody for saying he didn't know why he had to justify his vote. Again, really not that scummy in context but quotable and safe to go after. Not looking at the big picture.

4) Agrees with someone elses reasoning on Haru and signals he'd be up for a wagon.

5) Attacks Peabody for using similar language to what Peabody attacked him for earlier (wishywashy language like feels). I agree there's some hypocrasy but again it doesn't seem like strenuous scumhunting. It's hardly a big issue, and more disproves Peabody's point about Cyberbob's language than condemns Peabody for being scummy - but again it's a safe point to bring up.

6) Attacks CoCo for overreactive or combative language, again without going much deeper than 'your language is at times combative and even derisive'.

7) 'Had a look' at charter, but only in the context of CoCo's vote on him. So he didn't answer whether he thought charter was scummy, or even talk aobut the major arguments, just that after reading charter he felt he could comment on CoCo's vote.

8) Attacks CoCo for 'reaching like a pro' because of his (bad) argument about wanting to see more from charter because charter used the word 'reports'.

9) Attacks Col Cath for not backing up CoCo while being on his side. This is probably the attack I think is most justified, I agree it was very scummy of the Col to do this.

10) says he isn't sensing a charter wagon at the moment but gives zero reason as to why. He does go on to talk about CoCo and Col Cath and their reasons for pushing, but that's the second time he's looked at charter and yet commented on absolutely nothing charter has said or done.

11) Agrees with the active lurking charge on Col Cath (and charter).

12) Attacks me on a 'how do you know' point about 1/5 scum on a wagon, which was another typical 'gotcha' quotable post without looking at the whole (and a particularly poor one given the argument at the time, I feel.)

------

So I feel there's a pattern to his play. Look for small, quotable bits of scumminess. Make points that can hardly be disagreed with, even if they don't really point to the author as scummy. Zero effort in analysing a player thoroughly, zero effort in declaring people town, rarely looks at events in context and is very sure to focus on what he's found. Clear noone, rarely switch your vote and FoS everyone. His interactions with charter stick out because unlike almost everyone else he hasn't FoSed him, hasn't found something small to quote and niggle at and despite mentioning a couple of times, hasn't talked aobut his play at all.

I'm currently prepared to lynch anyone not in my town or leaning town group, so I don't want to get too tunneled on someone, but this type of play that I really don't like. It doesn't look genuine. It's easy to push his points because he's caught a minor slip or contradiction, so he's right. But he doesn't use that as a springboard, doesn't persue it. It doesn't look to me like he's trying to find scum, it looks like he's trying to attack people without getting his hands dirty. Add a couple of wishy washy views about early events and some odd behaviour towards charter and you have a scumread from me.

It's almost 2am so I'm going to retire, I'll try to come back with a more thorough read through of my neutrals and see where I can place people.

@Sens -

I am implying you were useless to the game for a long stretch of time. Your first 5 points include a vote on Hoopla in the RVS then 11 days later you came back and unvoted then revoted the same person :/. You had RL reasons to not be in the game, that's fine, but Hoopla had every reason to call you on it. And it's entirely legitimate to question whether or not your VLA was legit given you've said it's part of your meta that you'd be prepared to lie about it to benefit your game.

So you're here now, good times, lets get on with the game. I'm interested in hearing more from you, and your preoccupation with people who attacked you for not saying anything for 11 days is further obscuring your take on the game.

And attacking Haru was legit because his posts were actively illegible, you can't play the game with people like that, as hilarious as they were.

[SerialClergyman]

Haru's writing and reasoning was utterly illegible. You're either arguing for the sake of it or arguing because you don't like that I thought it legit to attack you. You were useless to the town, sitewide absense or no, and that's a bad thing. You're here now, the issue should be dropped without you devoting most of your actual posts to it.

Speaking of which, you say that there was nothing wrong with Haru because he was still voting and contributing, yet my long posts with detailed reads on most of the game, fresh reasoning and thread-based evidence and transparent stances are little signal. Maybe I should just post in emoticons.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm currently prepared to lynch anyone not in my town or leaning town group, so I don't want to get too tunneled on someone,

This is pretty funny, just saying.

sorry, I'm on my phone so it's hard to reply in ful, but this bit is important. I know you probably feel targeted but I felt I had to explain my read. I'd genuinely be happy with a lynch of anyone not on my town list because I'm beginning to find that I easily tunnel and that pbpas can make anyone lookscummy. Hence, especially on day 1, where info is very limited, I'm trying to look for towntells more than scumtells.

Your interacton with charter make you likely to be scum together if one of you flip scum. It's not a masive part of my read, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on him anyway, if you would..

Sens - if you prefer haru's posts then we are an an impasse. I certainly wouldn't and I hink90% of the players on site wouldn't either. Either way, who do you think is scum or town? Double points for not making all of your reads depend on just the issues directly surrounding you.

[SerialClergyman]

Oh - as for the misrep, don't you change your opinion that they are both doing it in post 334?

[SerialClergyman]

That discussion was short and pithy vs long and waffly, not incoherent mistranslation vs Full player rundown.

But either way, my posting style is here to stay so not much point going on about it.

I'll break your duck though, and be the first to say you haven't commented enough on the game. It seems to me your biggest contribution has been attacking hoopla for attackingyou.

Cyberbob - I apologise for that, I read you as having changed your mind. No rush on the charter read, we've got plenty of time.

Hoopla, what do you think of my reads?

[SerialClergyman]

Charming. Do you think giving too much information is equivalent togiving too little?

[SerialClergyman]

Also, you do realize that haru's is ME, don't you? So if your point is I'm being hypocritical for attacking my previous incarnation I'd love to hear the scum motivation behind it.

[SerialClergyman]

He just answered who he thought was scummy, charter. Look up.

[SerialClergyman]

I won't say who is Town, since that's one of the most anti-Town actions you can do in Mafia; you might as well just tell the Scum who they should be killing. As for who is Scum, I've said it before; do you read my posts? At the moment, probably something like: CoCo, Hoopla, Col.C, SC are in the top tier of scumminess, in no particular order.

sorry if my last post came across as rude, just hard to type out in full on the phone.

[SerialClergyman]

Post 378 for reference.

[SerialClergyman]

Hoopla, what makes you say they are well founded? Just an odd phrase to use for day one reads ( I hate day one).

To expand on the word careful, I mean careful that anything he attacks he is unquestionably right on. By that I mean there's almost no gut read, almost no sweeping declarations, almost no theory that can be argued with. His point always start at a minor scummy sentence and regularly stay there, never becoming something even mildly controversial.

I don't find myself feeling that his efforts are genuinely concerned whether the person BEHIND the comment he is attacking is scum, rather just being concerned that the comment is scummy.

Does that explain it better?

[SerialClergyman]

This is possibly true. I'll go through my thoughs more thoroughly on those people after I get a bit of times.

Cyberbob - your stance on the inital argument WOULD be a good argument in your favour had you stuck with your town read, but it eventually boiled down to 'the entire thing is a nulltell, which is barely better than not commenting on it at all. If you'd said the four participating are likely to be town - that'd be taking a stance. Saying it's taught you nothing about anyone isn't.

Will post in the next day or two with a more thorough read over peabody and col.

[SerialClergyman]

M'okay - could you give me an idea of what it did teach you about the people involved?

[SerialClergyman]

Sens what about my vote did you find scummy? The reasons? The speed? The target? The position?

I want to discuss it but I'd like your answer first please.

[SerialClergyman]

Fair enough.

The reason I ask is that I am not voting charter and never has been. Kublai's mental facilities have been undernourished from the last game where he claimed miller as scum and was never suspected till he won, I think

Does that do anything to allieviate your concern about the charter wagon?

[SerialClergyman]

Ah, in that case Kublai's mental facilities are fine (although as if not unvote replacements) but Sens' argument now definitely makes less sense. He didn't think Haru was scummy, so Haru's vote for charter would have been a positive for the charter wagon, yes?

I'll have a look at your question, hold on a tick, I'm just browsing all games atm, still busy.

Ok, I've had a look but I'm not sure what you're getting at. As far as I can tell, you're asking me to tell you the motivations of Haru, which I wouldn't be any better at than anyone else if I could understand his point, but since I can't determine what he meant by stained glass peabody and un charter I've got no idea.

You realise that when I said Haru was me, I didn't mean we were the same person behind the posts, I mean I replaced him, right?

[SerialClergyman]

Ohh, almost forgot:

unvote

[SerialClergyman]

No worries, Cyberbob. I possibly should have made that more clear.

Sens - what do you feel about the charter wagon now?

[SerialClergyman]

Sens - aren't those points counter to each other? On one hand you're happier thinking he might be scum because there's one less scummy person on the wagon, but on the other hand you're glad that the wagon is lessening onhim, presumably because you think him town?

I admit I don't get the idea of FoSing people. It seems to me to be a dramatic way to say 'I suspect you!' when just saying 'I suspect you' is fine. So maybe it's this that's biasing my opinion, but I found CoCos' FoS then vote the next day quite odd.

Still haven't had time to go through some of the other players thoroughly, sorry, I should be able to get through a bit tonight.

[SerialClergyman]

So what's your opinion on charter?

[SerialClergyman]

I don't see any reason to particularly think Peabody is scum.

I just read him in iso from start to finish and my verdict is new town (no offence). I wouldn't lose sleep if he was lynched, but I think there are better targets.

Of the major points against him,

* You know my view about the RVS issue,
* The attack on Cyberbob's language was cetainly a bad attack, but not necessarily scummy. It came across as ill-considered rather than malicious to me, although I conceed it as a scumtell.
* What else is there?

I can also point to things like defending charter agaisnt coco despite chrter solidly attacking him and his attack on coco seems genuine.

Mmm.

Plus, the two people I've pointed out as scummy are both on Peabody's wagon. I'm not convinced by it at all, really.

Unless there's some major reasons I've missed out on..?

Am looking forward to some more content from Talitha, (who again popped up to say hello 50 minutes after mathcam accused her directly). I can absoultely see her as scum (and while I take your opint about it being easy to turn up and defend yourself, it IS a scumtell that has proven results for me. Mainly because if you're able to defend yourself so quickly after attacks you are obviously keeping up with the thread, just not taking the time or seeing the need to post, both of which are scummy.)

Cyberbob has picked up a bit but I can see him as scum too.

I'm having trouble reading charter in two games now. Ugh.

Can't read Sens either. I think he's pretty useless and I disagree with almost everythign he says, but nothing has set off scum alarm bells.

On re-read of Col, I actually quite like his posts. I wouldn't be happy with him being the lynch today.

I'm also getting more frustrated by CoCo's play and downgrading to likely town. I still find it unlikely that scum would have this energy and passion, and even if it's fakable for the first day it's harder to fake it for a long game, so I dont' support a lynch D1. I think we'll be able to tell later on.

So that leaves me with a lynchable list of Cyberbob, Talitha, Sens, Vaya or even charter.

Anyone want to join me on Talitha's wagon?

vote Talitha

[SerialClergyman]

Col - I don't like some of that post, although our lynchable lists coincide quite a lot.

Ok... I did a re-read on Cyberbob. While SC definitely has some point about his playstyle, I still think, that CB doing a really good job in scumhunting, and I cannot find anything, to even put a slightest FoS on.

That makes no sense - if there's nothign to make the slightest FoS on, then my points were poor.

and I agree, that the 'Random Vote case' is not looking so null-tell as I initially thought),

a) Why? and b) what changed for you to form this decision?

[SerialClergyman]

My vote on Talitha is because for this entire game her focus has been primarily on defending herself rather than scumhunting. She's so concerned about defending herself that every time someone attacks her she's in and posting within a small amount of time, which shows she's following the game. I haven't seen many if any posts which read as town this game.

Her vote on me supports the lack of interest in genuinely finding scum, I think. Voting the person calling her out as scum is already a bit meh, but the reasons given seems to be my reluctance to vote peabody. She's prepared to entertain the idea whether or not peabody flips scum (in one scenario I'm bussing, in another scenario I'm avoiding a town lynch). Of course - she's supposedly town, so if I were scum moving off a townie I would have moved onto a different townie. So why she'd think I'd do that as scum is beyond me.

I really, really like my Serial Clergyman vote though. Unfortunately I may not get a lot of support in it, because he's nice and posts more than me and appears to be playing as a good townie. My opinion: a wolf in sheep's clothing.

This is rubbish. It's the too townie fallacy. If someone appears to be playing as a good townie, generally they are a good townie.

Plus she left room for a hammer on Peabody. Talitha continues to look like a good lynch imo.

[SerialClergyman]

mathcam, what do you think peabody will flip?

[SerialClergyman]

Sif Talitha isn't better than 33-40%. At least a coinflip imo.

[SerialClergyman]

sif = as if.

Eliminate the players who you think are probably town and 50/50 gets a lot more likely.

If you had the choice to personally lynch someone right now, forgetting about the rest of the town, who would it be?

[SerialClergyman]

For those opposed to this wagon or are off it currently for whatever reason, create another viable option.

Trying. How often do 'inevitable' lynches find scum?

Oh, and I think you're scum. And no, its not the "too townie" fallacy, its the "drown out the stuff in walls and people tend to subconsciously place you as town".

Constantly repeating that I'm scum for the same posting style I display in every game isn't as useful as you seem to think it is. If I was deliberately obsfucating you might have a point, but I think I've been pretty clear with my reads and why. Would you like me to do my normal posts then directly follow it with a Sensfan-post that fits in a text message?

[SerialClergyman]

Well, putting someone on ignore is not particularly protown. I agree some of what Coco said was outo f line (specifically that one comment to Talitha) but it doesn't make him scum.

I think mathcam's position is perfectly fine. One shouldn't be looking to vote or lynch someone who you feel is over 50% chanceo f being scum, rather over the average chance of being scum.

Anyone notice Col Cathart come in after a sizeable absense to 'third' someone else's point on page 24 without adding any content then disappear again?

[SerialClergyman]

Hoopla, what are your thoughts on Sens?

[SerialClergyman]

Do you mean that you've found evidence of him activly doign that this game, or doy ou mean in general he is able to do that and is therefore valuable enough to keep around?

[SerialClergyman]

Fair enough.

I'm looking for more from Sens tomorrow after some flips, then. I'm having trouble reading him because I can't see much he's doing of anything, apart from a few caustic comments. If you say his strength is in his analysis after something a bit more concrete, I'll defer to that.

I'm seeing my view worsen on Cathart, but he's behind my preferred lynches.

Where did Vaya go?

[SerialClergyman]

I'm tossing up over it, charter.

Given the other options and the need for some concrete results, I'd vote for him, I think, yes.

[SerialClergyman]

Sens, why am I off your lynchable list?

[SerialClergyman]

Wow.

Unvote, Vote peabody

[SerialClergyman]

Only have my phone for access for a couple of days, sorry all.

[SerialClergyman]

New place is great, still no net. Vla for another couple of days, sorry.

[SerialClergyman]

Hi guys, I am trying to keep up with the game, but things are really difficult with the net.

I'm surprised I haven't copped more attacks. My vote on Peabody was after he self-imploded, so I can hardly be credited with being on the wagon and the person I pushed most agaisnt flipped town callign me scum. It's surprising to me that more people didn't jump on it. This especially includes Sens who seemed to have it in for me yesterday but didn't mention it today. I think if he was scum trying to set up something with his NK he'd be unlikely to just drop it.

I'm not sure what to think of Peabody's collapse. I think we ignore his outburst, I think it's almost impossible he'd give away his partner in that manner.

I'm starting to be convinced by a CoCo lynch. I know I originally said he was likely to be town, but his behaviour to the Peabody wagon is strange and I wouldn't be cmfortable trying to read him in a lylo situation.

Sorry for my brevity, I'll try to be more active but I can't promise anything until the bloody telco puts in my phone line. My hands are shaking due to internet withdrawal

[SerialClergyman]

I don't have the game link at hand but my girlfriend had a scumpartner who wasn't a crafty player yet self lynched day two saying something like my scumpartner is great, I wish him all the best. Since my girlfriend is a she, the town considered her confirmed town and she rode it to victory. It doesn't take a particularly sophisticated player to thrownup a wifom game.

[SerialClergyman]

I've always liked the pact idea. Sorry for my big drop in posting, another game is at a crucial point and I'm still on my phone.

I like the coco lynch. I think Baka is very unlikely to be scum.

vote coco

[SerialClergyman]

I did. The phone autocorrected.

[SerialClergyman]

This is a good point. The reality is
I'm unable to go looking for clues and things, so I'm relying on memory. And a poliy lynch doesn't mean lynching someone you think
is town. Coco has given me enough pause.

Having said that, cathart has a more indicative relationship with peabody. I'd be up for a cathart lynch.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm going to hold
off
until I can reread properly. I'm happier with a coco lynch ATM.

[SerialClergyman]

As soon as telstra connect a line to my new apartment. I'll get a few slow days at work too.

[SerialClergyman]

My theory is scum may have planned for such a thing. "If you get lynched, name a townie as scumbuddy."

I think that's a pretty stupid theory. If scum were going to plan for possible D1 scenarios, surely claiming a powerrole to prevent your own lynch and/or out another would be a better outcome for them. Claiming a scumbuddy guarentees your lynch and not necessarily a mislynch the next day. Claiming a powerrole can get a mislynch D1, and possibly out another role.

It's safe to assume it was a renegade gambit by a new player, thinking it was the right thing to do. Peabody's stable demeanor does not suggest a bitter player trying to ruin the game for a partner.

qft.

Should also qft cyberbobs joke. Filthy telstra

[SerialClergyman]

Some thoughts.

The pact option only works if Noone questions it from the moment the pact happens onwards. Too many people have expressed suspicion for that to be the case, so that option is out for me.

I'm puzzled as to why sens didn't talk about his meta example a LOT sooner. Seems kinda relevent to discussion...

I'm currently ok to lynch cathart, coco or vaya.

[SerialClergyman]

I want a claim too. People are way too edgy about claims.

[SerialClergyman]

I should have access to a real computer soon.

In the meantime - I liked the cathart claim until the roleblock of vaya. His story is that he didn't know a block would stop a kill, but he targetted scum anyway. He should either have been more adamant that vaya was innocent (because his block meant she couldn't have night killed) or he should have answered this charge by saying 'i assumed a third
scum committed the kill', not be surprised that the roleblock blocked kills.

vote cathart

[SerialClergyman]

I thought hot nurse was
actually quite in tune with the flavour - over hyped American sex symbol of the cold war?

[SerialClergyman]

Not that we need more reasons, but I also don't know of any doctor-like role that mentions whether or not you can protect yourself.

Kublai - don't leave my awesome out-mod-guessing hanging with your poor role descriptions!

[SerialClergyman]

whoops, said the opposite of what I meant.

I don't know of any doctor-like roles which do NOT specifically mention whether you can protect yourself.

[SerialClergyman]

To be honest, I've seen more town self-votes than scum self-votes. And this is one of the rare moments where I could see how they might find it justified - when a scum player has created a very difficult WIFOM situation. I could imagine Vaya as town being genuinely distressed that if it came down to a 3-man lylo with him he could well be lynched due to the outburst and thus in favour of his lynch now when it is less important. I don't agree with that position, but it's more justifiable than 'I give up, you guys are all against me, well I told you so, selfvote'.

le chat, any coment on the night choice of cathart?

I'm in favour of a hammer btw.

[SerialClergyman]

if you told me right now you werent going to hammer him, i wouldnt hammer in your place. i fear his claim is for real and were getting rid of doctor-man. i dont mind more talking.

hoopla i dont know if i would hammer him or not. i fear losing a doc role and his claim sounds like it could be true. end of day 1 he was literally voting WITH peabody. that seems careless to do if you are maf partner with peabody, be the only two people voting a guy.

i wouldnt hammer if you didnt. i think we can still look at more people toDay.

??

[SerialClergyman]

Now that we know Cathart did block Vaya night one, but the kill still went through, I'm not too sure. I want to go back and reread and see what that turns up.

That's an excellent point. If we have a 2-man scumteam, Vaya isn't scum.

I also haven't ever heard of a coward, but it reads morel ike a survivor than a hider. He also couldn't have been killed as a hider unless he hid on scum, I guess. I'm going breadcrumb fishing.

[SerialClergyman]

No way would I let Vaya do the kill if I was his scumpartner. He'd be WAY too likely to draw role investigation.

[SerialClergyman]

Ok, so this is going nowhere and the game is running out of steam fast. Lets get back on the killin' wagon.

CoCo - 2 -

Peabody

,

Col.Cathart

- (L-5)
mathcam - 1 - charter - (L-6)

Peabody

, - 7 - Cyberbob, Vaya, Hoopla, mathcam,

Talitha

,

SensFan

, SerialClergyman - (L-0)
Vaya - 1 - le Chat - (L-6)

Players not voting: CoCo

CoCo - 2 -

Col.Cathart

, , Cyberbob - (L-4)

Col.Cathart

, - 6 - mathcam, charter, Vaya,

SensFan

, , SerialClergyman, Hoopla - (L-0)

SensFan

, - 1 - CoCo - (L-5)

Players not voting: le Chat

Interestingly, the person who was on the town lynch but not on the scum lynch was charter. Almost everyone else who was on one was on both.

CoCo looks less like a worthwhile lynch when viewed in the context that Peabody's vote sat on him for almost all of D1. It's just the VI stuff that makes him hard.

I think the idea of a pact only works because you WIFOM the scum into thinking they are confirmed town and so therefore become a heavy NK target. We've now gone beyond that poitn with the level of suspicion, so we can't jsut the ideao f the pact, as much as I like it.
I'm also not in favour of a Vaya lynch.

So given the current situation stalling, the fact that I agree with mathcam and don't see any reason for scum suggesting what he suggested (moving off vaya and coco) and the wagon analysis, I'm going to put up charter for my vote.

vote charter

[SerialClergyman]

Oh - Few things I should have said.

The significance of mathcam read being town is that charter also voted him earlier, as well as him not being a viable lynch candidate for me atm.

The second most dicey person on that analysis is probably le chat - a 1-man vote on Vaya D1 is uninspiring and a no vote on the second day is doubly so.

[SerialClergyman]

This is true, although obviously not a concern for me.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm aware of that, and I think I said something specifically to that effect earlier.

But the irritating thing about votecount analysis is that it gives you a selection of people which are more likely to be scum. I might be in that group, but happily I don't have to worry about that. YOU and everyone else might have to, but I'll leave it in your capable hands.

Note normally I'd agree with you about hypocrisy but votecount analysis is somewhat different. If you're sure that there's at least one scum on a 5 person wagon including yourself, and you clear 3/5 of the people on the wagon, that's a perfectly legitimate time to vote the final uncleared person, even though their action is identical to yours.

[SerialClergyman]

But then why the Peabody vote that was on him for pretty much ever? Just distancing? I'm not convinced..

Where's charter, my little active enthusiastic friend? Come play...

[SerialClergyman]

This is fair enough Cyber. I admit I wasn't looking particularly early on because I was more concerned with the wagons themselves, but I just had a ccloser look.

477 means Coco is likely to be town. He definitely looked to me like Peabody's scapegoat lynch.
charter was actually voted by peabody for a long amount of time, especially when the wagon on charter was larger (3-4 votes). He only seemed to switch off when it was obvious charter wasn't going to get up.

Ok, so going by that I'm liking my charter vote less (although I'm still suspiciouso f his lack of activity in this thread..).

Onto Le Chat!

unvote, vote le chat

[SerialClergyman]

lol @ charter.

Coming, coming. Replaced into a couple of games and got hit with much reading, will be here soon.

[SerialClergyman]

charter - you'll note you called out my first post for naming just about everybody town but see that it didn't name peabody as town. And part of why Talitha was attacking me was because she felt I left an 'in' to vote peabody without accepting responsibility for the lynch when I said I wouldn't mind a peabody lynch.

You'll also note near the start of day 2 I mentioned that I was surprised Sens wasn't attacking me for the late manner in which I was on the Peabody wagon and that led me to think him town.

I'm surprised I haven't copped more attacks. My vote on Peabody was after he self-imploded, so I can hardly be credited with being on the wagon and the person I pushed most agaisnt flipped town callign me scum. It's surprising to me that more people didn't jump on it. This especially includes Sens who seemed to have it in for me yesterday but didn't mention it today. I think if he was scum trying to set up something with his NK he'd be unlikely to just drop it.

Aside from that, I'm not quite sure what you want from me. I dropped voting you before you even posted due to a closer look at the wagons, so I can't call your attack OMGUS, but I don't think you really believe I'm scum. Maybe you do, and your case is just meagre. I don't know.

Cyberbob hasn't put a foot wrong recently, can't complain. Hoopla has moments of beautiful logical clarity, and I find myself agreeing with her a lot but I also haven't seen her make a particularly convincing case, which makes me a little uneasy.

Le Chat came in, wrote some decent material, unvoted and then left again. arg.

Cam is a star and reads continue as town.

Hoopla, got a scumlist?
Le Chat, got a vote?

[SerialClergyman]

and take a genetics exam

AND you might be a father?

[SerialClergyman]

At the risk of once again making a fool of myself, I'd point out that I've both seen and used the 'noone is defending them' point with surprising success. There's WIFOM to it, and there's the obvious problem that now someone clearly IS defending them, but it's actually a decent method of determining whether lynching the VI is a good or bad idea.

However I tend to think it applies more in larger games with more scum (max buddies are two here at the moment) where the effect is more pronounced and cam's point of b) is very good - it doesn't work unless there is a game-wide acknowledgement of someone as universally scummy.

Hoopla - your latest post highlights what I've been feeling for a while now - when you make posts about the setup, or policy or other such things I agree totally with you and find you very convincing, but when you push a case or mention your suspects I lose that feeling. Possibly nothing but there you go.

I think Peabody's post about Cyberbob's language (he 'feels' like a 'possible' townie was wishy-washy) was a standard peabody attack town, just as his attacks on Sens, Talitha and to a lesser extent Col were.

Reading over Peabody, I'm noticing he mentioned the confirmed towns a lot, which makes me suspect again that he's not really mentioning his buddies. Have a look at his most content full post, here.

He rarely talks about le chat, vaya and me (zz) but is quite vocal about just about everythign else. His exchange with coco in this post and this post is indicative of him not being partners with coco, I think. Plus he's all into the charter attack.

In fact, Cam, while your attack on charter is solid, it dones't acknowledge the reason I unvoted - Peabody's behaviour against charter for most of D1. Thoughts on that?

[SerialClergyman]

Cam - normally I don't like that 'I'm surprised noone has attacked me yet' stuff either, but I was making a specific point about Sens. I thought Sens had it in for me D1 (attacking me pretty strongly for posting style and very little else I could see) and so when Tally turned up dead, I totally expected him to come after me hard. When he didn't, I thought that meant Sens was likely to be town and said so.

On CyberBob - I have a habit of the very occasional 'left field' gut scum read, but so it goes. It's a little different - I actually coined a phrase for it recently - the real estate agent read. It's like when you think they're on your side and they act like they're on your side but you can't shake the feeling they're ready to sell your house for whatever they can get, grab the commission and run. I'm less convinced now because he's been driving the game during low activity, but in D1 it was pinging pretty strongly.

On Haruchi - can't help you. It's possible he was just some Japanese guy who used it to genuinely read the game, I don't know.

[SerialClergyman]

Who wants to join the le chat wagon and get some pressure happening before his return? All the cool kids are doing it..

[SerialClergyman]

Well posting is a little hard when waiting on someone.

Is anyone prepared to stick up for le chat in absense of other discussion?

[SerialClergyman]

What about the possibility that he chose not to hide that night and scum killed him?

Hi replacements, thanks mod!!

[SerialClergyman]

Lol at that claim charter.

I agree with hoopla on the theory, but have seen town hiders not hide before so i wouldn't rule it out, and occham says that's the simplest IMO.

[SerialClergyman]

Charter - could you explain your read of me a little more thoroughly?

I ask because I've been looking at this game and shaking my head at my play. I can't seem to get a read, get a theory. I've been using bandwagon analysis to try to conjure something, just to try to get a spark. I find very little to differentiate the players in the game and I'm posting very little essentially because I refuse to post opinions that are made up or that I don't really believe in.

However - I don't get why you, charter, don't find me more scummy, given how differently I'm playing this game to the other games you're in with me, at least one of which I've townflipped. So although I appreciate the backup, because i'm lurking in that 2nd-4th scummiest slot in most people's minds, I would have thought you'd be super extra on my case for a lack of obvious fire and towniness.

I started voting le chat because of his voting record, one that I can't question any more specifically, but at least it's still therei n black and white. I think it's a decent lynch, but probably barely more likely to find scum than average. I'd like to get somethign more concrete than I have but I'm struggling.

I went back for a read of CoCo around the lynch of Peabody and found a few tidbits. Have a look at ISO 82-88 of CoCo. That's the entire period he vote Peabody for and it was pretty awful. He starts off defending Peabody, promises to ISO-read him, FoSes him, votes him, complains that I thought the FoS then vote thing was odd then the next post claims two other players (one confirmed town) were obvscum and votes them, including this:

Talitha and Chatrer are obvscum.

Both hopped off the Peabody wagon for various reasons and it all crap. The only person with a good reason to be on that wagon is Cyberbob.

Cyberbob is town.
Peabody is town.
Mathcam is neutral.

Then have a look at the difference between his posts at 114 and 115.

I mean there was scummy behaviour from CoCo, but much of it was VI stuff which I maintain doesn't really reflect on alignment. But those posts there are specific behaviour that has a scum motivation, I think. His acting around the Peabody wagon is just fishy full stop in review.

Then out of the replacements, Raskol has been by far the least convincing. It's not just a playstyle thing, it's a motivations thing. You replaced into a game, read up on everything that's happened then sat back and said quiz me.. I don't get what you think that will achieve, aparts perhaps from clearing yourself if you were generally asked questions. If I were to ask a question to you, I'd ask why do you think that your job is to answer questions and defend yourself rather than actively seek out the scum?

I'm looking towards a DDD lynch (purely based on le chat's play) or a raskol lynch. I think at the moment I've just pushed myself into the raskol camp.

unvote, vote raskol

[SerialClergyman]

On the contrary, the le chat wagon was the easy path. I was on early, almost everyone feels that that playerslot is scummy in one way or another and it's maintaining the status quo. So charges of taking an easy option that will be obviously supported are not particularly reasonable - I doubt this will be particularly more supported and it will definitely be 'harder' on me than just sitting on le chat.

The charge about the hypocracy of my position, on the other hand, is pretty reasonable, and I don't have much of an answer to it aside from I reconsidered my position. I've actually always thought CoCo's player slot was likely to be town but on a re-read of the end of D1 and some investigation after your appearance, I have just changed my mind.

I don't know what else to say, aside from the fact that your post seems to go against your own dictum of reasonable and clam posting, but I don't necessarily think that's particularly scummy, I could see scum or town push the aggressive counter vote.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, I can't imagine why you'd think that when very few people have said anything pro-le chat, lots of people have been in favour of lynching him and clearly my position on that wagon wasn't causing any waves and hadn't been for the couple of weeks I've been there. It isn't an argument that suggests I'm particularly town, but to say I'm scummy for taking the easy way out is just patently wrong, as far as I can tell.

As for changing my mind - it's not actually the first time I've changed my mind on your player slot. in D2 I wrote this then voted you next post

I'm starting to be convinced by a CoCo lynch. I know I originally said he was likely to be town, but his behaviour to the Peabody wagon is strange and I wouldn't be cmfortable trying to read him in a lylo situation.

In fact, all through D2 I point out I'm ok with a coco lynch.

I go off a CoCo lynch D3 when I'm doing wagon analysis and looking back, but after getting into the other replacement's posts, I haven't really gotten into yours and my doubt comes back.

I've never claimed to have a solid grip on this game, but I think the best thing I can do is go for what I'm feeling now, and what I'm feelign now points due Raskol.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, there was at least that many in favour of DDD's lynch, and he's already voting me so staying there I wouldn't have risked your return vote.

But to be honest, I think this is possibly a red herring. Even if you conceeded the point to me immediately it's still WIFOM-y and it's not like that'll change where my vote is.

Did you have anything else apart from the timing/circumstances of my vote that you don't like?

[SerialClergyman]

You didn't see fit to mention any of that stuff earlier or when you did decide to vote me? It looks to be after the fact, a little. Nonetheless I'll address what points I can clearly delinearate.

1) Not sure what misrep you feel I made, pointing it out would be good.
2) I don't know why you think my case is particularly parroted. I think the quote and iso posts I pulled up to show my thinking are specifically not parroted, unless i missed someone posting them recently.
3) I'm not sure what good you feel 'fishing for charter's read' would do me as scum. Basically I was challenging his reasons in calling me town (or at least not scum). As far as I can tell, that only hurts me as scum.
4) My 'treatment' of Peabody involves defending one aspect of his actions which I didn't feel was a scumtell and would defend again in an identical situation. I wasn't hugely into the wagon, but that's hardly unique, and you'll notice I never said that I thought Peabody was town, although I said that about a lot of other people. In fact, Talitha went to her death saying I was scummy for pushing the wagon on Peabody without the responsibility of voting when I said that I wouldn't mind a Peabody lynch.

Finally, interesting you should mention the not having a read on the game talk. Again, I'm not convinced it serves a scum agenda, but either way I'm just calling it as I see it, so I can only shrug. But I did notice this from you:

By the way, I do apologize terribly for not blowing the lid off the game with mindblowing new insights.

Coupled with the hypocritical stance on emotional voting/posting, I think you're falling into a few of the habits you're looking for in other people.

[SerialClergyman]

Hoopla - the gesture attributed to you in your emoticon summary either didn't fit the situation or it means somethign MUCH different in Australia..

On more serious matters - DDD, I'm a big believer in not confusing anti-town with pro-scum but I wouldn't claim that anti-town behaviour that's not necessarily scummy makes someone likely to be town. It might not be a scum tell, but it's not a town tell either, surely?

If you have a town read on Raskol and a scum read on me, why not participate in the active discussion more than as a direct response to charter?

[SerialClergyman]

Beyond CoCo's very VI-ish behavior. Scum simply don't post at the outrageously fast clip that CoCo did at the beginning of the day.

Yes - this is one of the biggest reasons I put him down as town in my first content post of the game. But his posting does waiver, and his energy gets lost greatly after about half way through D1. My opinion of this read is that if you can keep it up you're likely to be town (because scum have no motivation to actually scumhunt, so to be that active in scumhunting as scum is intense work) but given how his activity wanes I'm prepared to think that this was just excited scum at the start of a game. It was also different posting style to his meta town.

Also - I don't think his behaviour is as typically VI as is being made out. He was active, coherent and had some knowledge of the game and it's paradigms. That's not quite the same as a standard lurky confused VI to me.

[SerialClergyman]

pyrrhic

Good word.

Cam, where are you seeing town?

[SerialClergyman]

Damn this game is frustrating.

I cannot get a damn handle on it at all.

I actually agree with a lot of what DDD is saying. I'm not convinced it helps him out too much because spouting good theory does not equal town, but I actually like where he's coming from, and he isn't cross-voting with Raskol, which is what I'd expect him to do as scum.

But on the other hand, he doesn't seem to be doing much at all. He's barely pushed a lynch, although he's said that he'd wait until the raskol lynch died down to come after me, but that's hardly noteworthy. He rarely sticks up for Raskol or engages with the debate apart from every now and then chiming in with saying I'm scummy or Raskol's town.

Raskol's AtE are starting to get at me. The self-vote stuff is bad play, but it's also (in my experience) been almost exclusively town. He also is hardly pushing a lynch, preferring to get into pissing contests (is that phrase uniquely Australian?) with charter (and sometimes myself) that do little to advance the agenda.

I have less of a town read on charter than I usually do in games, but I see no particular reason to think him scum.

Hoopla's ambivalence is less than useful. She's again been very convincing and logical when talkign about theory or general actions, but when it comes to specifically making a case or declaring scumreads or anythign like that she has been decidedly lacking.

Something to mull over - is an impasse scenario more likely to occur on two town, 1 town 1 scum or 2 scum?

[SerialClergyman]

Arg, simulpost city.

The lining up lynches thing isn't as bad near the end of the game as it is near the start, but it's still a pretty shoddy principle. In this specific case, it makes zero sense because if charter and I were on a team together, presumably we'd have been perfectly happy to go with a le chat/DDD lynch if he's town rather than stir up trouble by voting for Raskol.

So the logic to me is worse than the principle in that suggestion.

[SerialClergyman]

I see very little in either of those posts that I can answer simply without another pissing contest chain of emails. In short - I feel there's at least elements of frustration and certainly an overall emotive tone to your posts that I would describe as an AtE.
I also am happy with the amount of WIFOM in that paragraph. Almost any reasoning in mafia (hint: any involving motivations) has an element of WIFOM, the trick is to not let both sides be equally likely. For example, your arguments about clearing DDD if you townflip or being cleared if DDD townflips are also WIFOM, but that doesn't mean the end of the argument.

[SerialClergyman]

Actually, while I'm on the subject, do you still consider DDD a suspect?

[SerialClergyman]

Damn this game is frustrating.

I cannot get a damn handle on it at all.

I just want to point out that comments like this are a major scumtell.

Forming reads as scum is always more difficult than doing it as town, as scum already know everyone's alignment and have to spend a lot of mental energy creatively coming up with false reads, while making sure those reads don't interfere with their goal of staying concealed and getting mislynches.

I'd also like to call attention to the sharp rise in SC's activity levels around the times when I've expressed suspicion of him. Make of that what you will

Ok, I'm still re-reading and researchign and whatever, but bugger this - this is absolute rubbish. My activity levels have nothing to do with your suspicion, they've gone up and down all throughout the game for a variety of reasons. Additionally - people voted me well before you did and there was no sudden surge in activity AND I was the one who voted YOU first and you had your instant counter-vote, which is hardly the same thing as being called out as scum while lurking.

As for my comments about not having a handle on it, deal with it. I don't have a handle on it and so there it is. As both scum and town I've run the gammit of both being very vague and non-committal and very focused on one player and tunnelling hard, so unless you have some meta to back that up, leave it there. Plus - it may or may not come across that I'm actually trying to get a ahndle on it, and the posts I'm making are a descriptive record of that process.

I think there are perfectly good reasons to suspect me, but those two are not amongst them.

[SerialClergyman]

And to answer your question about DDD: I'm beginning to think that DDD is town, but I'm willing to lynch him because firstly, I'm not absolutely sure he's town and will be more comfortable lynching you once I know his alignment for sure, and second, I take much the same attitude towards his flip at this point as I do my own: if he's town, his lynch will clear two townies (one completely and one partially), leaving us with two credible suspects that have a very good chance of being partners.

This is not the best response, and I think that's because you're now in a difficultp osition.

One of the few scumreads you had befoeri voted you and you decided I was scum was le chat. You maintain that you ocntinue to feel that way over le chat/DDD until recently, when you start talking about clearing people. Now you're starting to think he's town, but are still prepared to lynch him?

If I understand your argument about self-hammering, you are saying that your townflip would show that le chat is town, and the town could then lynch charter and myself. But YOU ALREADY KNOW YOUR ALIGNMENT. So if you think DDD is confirmed town on your townflip, you should feel he's confirmedtown NOW.

[SerialClergyman]

Raskol, why is DDD likely town?

[SerialClergyman]

DDD, I agree with you, but were you just reading along and decided to pop in just after Hoopla switched her vote to you? Any comment on anythign not directly affecting you?

[SerialClergyman]

I am voting Raskol because of le chat's play and his inconsistent thinking. It seems to me Raskol thinks the two people attacking him the hardest are scum (cyberbob isn't regarded as scummy) and the 1 person strongly defending him is town.

Never mind the fact that the person defending him was seen as scummy before the defending.

Then this bizarre scenario with who to vote. Firstly - charter and I are getting grouped together, but if I die there's no WAY I'd want charter to be considered cleared, and wouldn't expect the same if he townflipped.

But most importantly, Raskol's thinking seems to have gone:

1) DDD is scummy.
2) DDD defended me, so is town
3) a) If I townflip, people will see DDD defended me and will be confirmed town
b) If DDD townflips, I should be considered town because (??? - because a townie defended me?)
4) Vote DDD, but a self-lynch is acceptable.

The mind truly boggles. I can't honestly tell if this is a scumtell or not - it looks to me to be terrible play from any alignment. Even if your theory held, and lynching one of you would confirm the other, presumably the now-confirmed town could be killed at night and we'd go into possibe lylo with none confirmed anyway.

And more importantly -

what have you got to lose by trying to lynch your suspects

?? If your feeling is that you or DDD confirm each other on a townflip then great - say that to your heart's content THEN GO AFTER SOMEONE YOU THINK IS SCUMMY. Why? Because the worst that's going to happen is you're going to get lynched, which will have the positive benefits you're talkign about now! I have absolutely no understanding as to why you'd either vote yourself or someon you thoguht was likely town in this situation.

Now I think it's possible you're only in this mess because you tripped up. So you start trying to work your way out of troule by saying a le chat townflip clears you, and the rest is all fluff, and that's why your'e in the illogical position of saying your former scumread is now likely town that you want lynched, but it could jsut be severly misguided logic.

Would you like to take a step back and think about your position?

[SerialClergyman]

Btw, about the 'inconsistency': I already admitted before that it wasn't ideal. I really did think it was the only way to convince anyone, though.

I think you've given me enough to get you lynched now though, so thank you.

Your 'inconsistency' - you thought it was the only way to convince anyone. But if you didn't convince anyone, the consequence was EXACTLY WHAT YOU WERE PLANNING TO DO. There was no downside to not trying to vote someone you thought was scum...

On one hand, self lynch.
On the other hand, fail to convince with your SC case, get self lynched.

At least in the second case, you had a chance to lynch someone you thought was scum.

Can you not see why that's a terrible play to make?

[SerialClergyman]

Wait, so you'd be comfortable having CoCo alive in lylo?

After claiming vanilla town for no reason, and generally being a nuisance, what incentive is there for scum to kill him? This isn't mentioning his scummy antics. He will either need to be lynched or left alive throughout the game. Although they probably both aren't scum, I would personally take my chances on Vaya being town, rather than CoCo.

Either way, I think we almost have to lynch one of these two today before it gets too late.

It should be CoCo though.

Hoopla - both Vaya and CoCo should be regarded as 'half value' scum reads (vaya beacuse of roleblocker not blocking a kill and CoCo because Sens probably died on a different scum).

You said the above paragraph earlier today. What changed?

[SerialClergyman]

Raskol - I don't know whaty ou mean by quoted section.. do you mean your sudden epiphany and vote of me?

Well, I'm not sure that it is, but I can give you a couple of possible reasons.
1) You got caught up in your own attempt to try to manipulate the situation. You tried to set up me or charter as scum, falsely saying you're likely to be town on a DDD townflip. That works great for you as scum because, assuming charter's innocence, you'd get 2 innocent lynches out of a difficult situation. But you didn't see that in order to pull it off you had to both say you thought DDD was town while at the same time trying to lynch him.
2) More AtE. You've shown your capable of appealing to emotion, you might have thought the situation desperate enough to threaten to self-hammer to try to score cheap points.

Neither are overwhelming, but they're better than any town motivation for your actions that I can see.

[SerialClergyman]

Well could you enlighten me?

[SerialClergyman]

Hoopla, charter - what do you think of each other's play so far and likely alignment?

[SerialClergyman]

My point was you were prepared to lynch two people who were 'half value' but now are using 'half value' to deter a lynch.

Still, I understand what you're saying about policy being part of the issue.

[SerialClergyman]

Oh, righto. I said le chat when I meant CoCo. I didn't even see the quoted bit because of the giant picture of a T-shirt, but there you go.

What divine wisdom are we seeking from that typo?

[SerialClergyman]

So you knew it was a mistake - I'm not following the 'aha! eureka, lets go find a giant pic of a T-shirt' moment.

And again, except for D2 where I voted for his lynch before waivering on his alignment again. I do that.

[SerialClergyman]

Couldn't disagree on changing your mind more, but that's a theory discussion.

As for this:

It's actually more scummy when you put the word CoCo in there. Did you honestly think I would be that sure you were scum based on a typo?

Well, why did you quote it and then post a snide comment that I ignored it?? ><

[SerialClergyman]

Well, changing your mind in general is something town do more often than scum. If scum are in a safe position where they aren't getting any heat and are comfortable with who they are voting, there's no need to change their mind. In my experience, those that really shake things up and change dramatically are likely to be town. Mathcam's post asking us to step away from what seemed like the imminent lynches of coco or vaya makes him likely town to me, unless one of those two are scum and he was trying to save a buddy.

As for evidence, well there's new evidence all the time, whether it's a re-read or the current positions. As it was, you replaced in for CoCo and I wondered if it was possible that two players in the same slot could both be scummy-acting town or whether the simpler response was just that you were scum. I decided on the latter.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm going to have to stop these soon, because I get baited into replying and no one in the town is actually going to care about the repsonse at all.

Ok, say I'm scum and was on the town le chat wagon. Explain how changing my mind to you benefits me as scum, especially if charter is my scumpartner.

While we're on somewhat WIFOMic reasoning, you don't get town cred for 'trying to lynch yourself'. What you actually tried to do was lynch DDD, someone you thought was town (ahem, changing your mind?), while claiming that DDD's townflip would clear you.

Literally none of that entire piece of play makes sense from a town point of view. Your logical conclusions are wrong, your suggested clearing are wrong. You threatened to lynch yourself but only ever voted someone you suggested was probably town. That entire passage of play is terrible, honestly, just terrible.

The only motivation I can see for that is trying to get yourself falsely cleared on a DDD townflip.

[SerialClergyman]

unvote

Don't be stupid.

I wasn't telling you to self-vote, I was saying that the passage of play was stupid. Even if you're town, and you're genuine right now, it's a stupid piece of play.

[SerialClergyman]

It's both stupid and scummy to self vote, especially while dictating the lynch for the next day. Now that you're trying to put your money where your mouth is, at least some of my earlier points don't apply. But you seem to think that I should be sure you're scum because I was voting you, and I'm not. I also don't particularly want to lose the game outright either, so I will unvote to allow more time to make a better decision.

[SerialClergyman]

I don't want him going out yet, not on a self-vote. I'm far from convinced at the moment (as much as I'd like to see him out).

[SerialClergyman]

This is my counter theory, and the reason I asked Hoopla and charter about each other earlier.

My strong reads on the game are as follows:

If vaya and CoCo are town, mathcam is town.
CoCo and le chat cannot be scum together.
Vaya is town. (don't believe Peabody's throwaway line was a genuine temper tantrum, think it was almost certainly faked).

So if I assumed coco and le chat are town, then mathcam has to be and vaya is as well, plus I'm town. So we're left with

In doubt:
1. charter
3. Cyberbob
6. Hoopla

Town:
2. Raskol (Replacing CoCo on Day 3)
4. SerialClergyman (Replacing Harumafuji on Day 1)
7. Debonair Danny DiPietro (Replacing le Chat on Day 3)
12. Socrates (Replaces Vaya on Day 3)
8. mathcam

If I take out Cyberbob due to play, then Hoopla and charter are scum together by default.

So I'm trying to decide whether my opinion of Raskol is clouding my scum judgement. And what I think is the best path to go down. I don't have a particularly town read on Hoopla or charter either.

If we're going to no lynch tomorrow anyway, why not no lynch tonight?

[SerialClergyman]

Self-voting is terribad, but I goaded him into it by suggesting he wasn't actually prepared to do it. Plus I've seen it more by town than scum, personally.

But the main reason is above, I'm trying to walk the tightrope between theories and I'm not done yet.

[SerialClergyman]

Arg, at the risk of tryign to sift through more of your logic, why does this:

SC---no lynch is only appropriate tomorrow if we lynch town today. No lynching today is not appropriate at all.

make sense?

AFAIK, the no lynch works because it gets us back on an odd number of people as well as eliminating one more possible mislynch, I don't see why that shouldn't matter whether it's L-1 or not.

[SerialClergyman]

err -

whether it's

L-1

lylo or not.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, I disagree with just about all of that.

Even if we hit scum we'd still have an even number of people. If there's a power role who could use the extra day, we are making it more likely he's killed by lynching first.

[SerialClergyman]

I am known for my lack of intelligence.

[SerialClergyman]

mathcam is one of the few people left I see as Raskol's buddy. I'd be happy to see his alignment if it didn't cost us a mislynch.

[SerialClergyman]

1. charter (attacked too hard))
3. Cyberbob (attacked too hard)
4. SerialClergyman (me)
6. Hoopla (possible)
7. Debonair Danny DiPietro (lynch one to confirm other makes no sense as buddies)
8. mathcam (possible)
12. Socrates (likely town due to peabody)

So yep, I'd totally be prepared to have a No Lynch if the target was cam.

[SerialClergyman]

By the way, SC why can't Le Chat and CoCo be scum together? That seems to come out of left field.

The only scum motivation for Raskol's behaviour is to get DDDtown lynched so Raskol is falsely confirmed. I think it's highly likely Raskol was trying to set up a dichotomy between him and his partner in that situation, unless he was actively attacking and trying to distance.

[SerialClergyman]

And it's not mathcam personally, I was describing how the death of just about anyone would be useful. You thought mathcam's death would be useless, I think it'd essentially narrow down raskol's possible partner to 1 person. You could argue the same about most poeple, to be honest.

[SerialClergyman]

Ha, since when are my town theories air tight?

I knew you were going to get stroppy as soon as I raised it charter, but I like you and honestly tried to 'unthink' it.

if you insist on meta I'd ask you look at either of my scum games where I absolutly would have tunnelled hard to get a lynch, on either le chat or raskol.

But if you're going to knock down a theory, tell me who raskol's partner is? As far as I can see, I can see two possible scumpartners hoopla is a possibility and so is cam. I never argued that cam is scum, in fact I think he's likely town. I was making the point that his death and townflips on a no lynch would ensure that is raskol is scum, hoopla is scum - and that's useful (certainly worth the negative of not having him around to vote, as
good as he is. )

so if I think raskol may be town, everything else follows. I can clear cam for taking the town away from vaya vs coco, vaya based on Peabody.
Then I'm left with cyberbob, hoopla, charter and le chat, who would all be voting town if this is correct. Of those, DDd hasn't buddied and didn't get on the easy raskol wagon, so that's an unlikely scum.

So I'm left with three people, bob, hoopla and charter. Of
that group, I think hoopla and charter are the most likely pairing.

In coming to that conclusion, I haven't made many assumptions at all. It might be a tough sell but I've stuck with honest and open all game so why switch now?

I am starting to think that hoopla might be the best lynch today because she could be scum on either side of the coin. But a no lynch casualty will certainly help piece together this thinking..

[SerialClergyman]

Ebwop mathcams flip shows that IF raskol is scum, hoopla is scum.

Typing on my phone, sorry for errors.

[SerialClergyman]

No comment cam? I just droppd a pretty big bomb of a theory and you didn't mention it?

[SerialClergyman]

Cam, my point about raskol and ddd is that raskol's gambit suggested lynching himself or ddd to confirm and pushed it pretty hard. That makes sense if ddd is town but not if they are both scum. If they are both scum I see no scum motivation for that gambit at all.

I'm underwhelmed by ddd's case, I'll try to respond via phone.

I'll concede that I've been waffly, not that I've gone after easy targets. I also said of Peabody I wouldn't mind his lynch. I voted him because after the meltdown he admitted to being scum, anyone would have. The flavour wasn't why I voted cathart.

Much of what you say about peabody you concede as only indicative. If the tbs issue was true, then obviously it could have come from a town perspective. I can't help that Peabody didn't mention me.

And charter, who you have pegged as town, has a vey similar voting and playing record and was actively trying to disrupt the Peabody wagon d1.

[SerialClergyman]

I'm not going to get the numbers on a charter or hoopla lynch, I think, so possibly I'm speaking with an air of martyrdom. Ddd won't vote charter, hoopla probably won't, charter won't, so I'd need everyone else and I think that's probably unlikely. But nothing ventured nothing gained.

Reasons as to why this is a bad idea are totally welcome.

Cam - how likely do you honestly think me and raskol are as partners?? That came out of left field. I think bob and you should knuckle out who you think his partner is, b ause that's how I got to where I am.

Bob - who is raskol's partner?

vote charter

[SerialClergyman]

Yeah, I used to think that but I iso read Peabody and he never tries to Lynn or pressure you. I'd urge everyon to look at Peabody posts, after the vote he rarely even mentions you, and when he does it's half good and half bad.

I had thougt about that issue after my attempted vc analysis though.

Charter, do you still think raskol is scum now that you think I am?

[SerialClergyman]

Also, you're talking big about big holes and terrible theories but that's the first concrete objction you've made.

[SerialClergyman]

Your argument is that peabodys vote on you clears
you. That's only true if he was
genuinely trying to push your lynch. If he wasn't, as you say, why should it be an argument that you are town?

[SerialClergyman]

And if your reason for voting me is my unvote being scummy, why were
you shaping up to vote me before that incident happened? You just said earlier that your unvote and asking for a
vote count was you shaping up to vote me.

[SerialClergyman]

I address that in 1312.

If raskol is town, ddd has been pretty ballsy in not going for the self preservation.

Like charter, you've described a theory riddled with assumptions but only really highlighted one possible contender. More is good.

[SerialClergyman]

Why is generating a wagon elsewhere a good idea? If the raskol lynch is derailed, he was the obvious next step. Even when raskol was voting him he didn't counter, and he was upfront about his plans and target when I asked him about them. Seems town to me.

As for cam, hard to find on the phone but at one point we had an almost inevitable coco vs vaya argument that he broke up. If they are both town, massive town tell for cam.

[SerialClergyman]

To nitpick - even five 90% chances is still 60% of being right, and if I'm right I crack the game wide open from a bad place. But that's facetious, I understand you were using that as an example only.

Both you and charter have been hard pressed to come up with serious holes in the theory despite feeling like there were on first glance. The issue of me possibly being scum is hard to relate to, I can only keep coming out with my current best theory. And as for the style - my town style is to crack out the reads on day three, so I'm just crossing my fingers and going with what my head and gut are telling me.

Hoopla - give me some feasible scum teams? Mos of the ones I think of contain you, sorry to say.

[SerialClergyman]

Yes, this is by far the most controversial assumption. If my alignment was confirmed, we could simply use a lynch to find out, but i doubt people are going to be champing at the bit to go along with that. I just am looking at the make up of the game, looking at who is likely to be with who and I don't see it.

On the contrary to you, though, I think not having a scum partner possible is a very good reason not to be voting someone.

The reason why I'm starting to seriously get into the new theory is that I've decided I just totally don't agree with raskol's play, then tried to analyse it from ther. You yourslf said he was anti town and you didn't care if he was scum or not when you voted him. I still do care if he's scum, and I don't see much genuine scum motivation for his play, just general bad play from either scum or town (no offense).

And if he's scum it's either with mathcams, one of my biggest town reads, or with hoopla. And if that's the case, I'd prefer to lynch hoopla, which on a townflip gives us a scumteam of charter and bob and on a scumflips gives us a 2/3 chance of nailing her partner between raskol, charter and bob.

[SerialClergyman]

Hoopla it's .9 to the power of 5 which is roughly 60%. And call me pessimistic but I'd take that chance to win this game.

Without bob I won't have the numbers for a lynch so this is probably academic.

I still hold that every flip is crucial and a no lynch with just about anyone dead, including myself, would help confirm or deny the theory or otheris narrow down the possibilities with only minor detriment.

As for my own scumminess - don't k ow what to say, to be honest. I think I've been pretty transparently looking for scum. If it comes off as insincere I'll cop that but at least you'll have a head start.

[SerialClergyman]

There's no holes to plug. You KNOWING you're town doesn't even destroy it for you, the one person who may or may not know that, because hoopla and bob could well be. In fact, if I am lynched, bob, hoopla and charter should all look at the other two very closely.

Cam has steadily been a town read for me, look all through my posts on any day and find out for yourself. My point was no matter what read you have on him, if those two are town he is essentially confirmed.

So where are these holes you're saying keep springing up? Your rhetoric doesn't match your points. You knowing you are town is dubious to the rest of us and explainable if true, my stance on cam is consistent but even if it wasn't there is still no contradiction in the theory.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, right from the start I said it was between you three for the choice. As for you being lynched, well, I'm just looking at who's likely to be town based on play and put Bob in that spot. I'd be open to other lynches. (especially a no lynch).

The whole point about process of elimination is that you don't base it on who is likely to be the swcumbuddy, it's who is ruled out and why.

You can't call it bussing if it was a limp vote that was never followed up on. I think you're trying to get credit for Peabody voting you despite it being painfully obvious she never actually attacked you at all, something you acknowledged and provided a reason for.

Actually DDD comes across as town to me. He did exactly what he told me he was going to do - wait until the raskol wagon fell apart and come after me. He has taken controversial stances and shown no real interest for self-preservation. I'd be impressed if he was scum.

Raskol is the really tough one. I hate self-voting and believe in some general/ethical sense it's bad or scummy, but I've never found it to be a scumtell (possibly empirically the opposite in my short experience.) The short answer is I could see a townie saying what he said and that makes me doubt. I always felt, and this is why I mentioned your 'don't care if he's scum he's so anti-town comment', I always felt that his play was anti-town but I'm not sure whether he's actually likely to flip scum.

The other possibility that has me worried is if there's only 2 scum then the whole thing is meaningless and I've been mapping out a wild goose chase for nothing. That sucks.

But I can't help but feel I'm on a better path than I was. Cyberbob has surprised me, usually active and content-ful but today just totally dismissive. Hoopla has been reasonable in discussing it but is positioned in the most likely to be scum category and you've taken a midline approach - more content than cyberbob but more rhetorical whimsies than Hoopla.

Still, it's almost bed time, so I'll hit it fresh in the morning after a night of spirited debate and analysis from you all

[SerialClergyman]

The last few posts from SC are some of the dumbest I have ever seen.

It seems like you've now shifted to charter/Hoopla because you can't come up with a plausible buddy for Raskol. That's really not a good reason to write off Raskol as town, which is what I think you've done.

SC's dancing around like water on a hotplate. My guess wpuld be either that he's protecting his buddy or that he has finally found an excuse to not be on a town wagon that's likely to result in a lynch.

That was hours and pages of discussion's worth of content from pretty much every player in the game, but the two quotes above are Bob's entire contribution to it.

[SerialClergyman]

Sorry, didn't mean to have a shot at you if there's something non game-related. Hope things get better.

[SerialClergyman]

Just something else to add that I don't think I talked about. No lynch is absolutely stupid. Despite your theory having little to no town support, even if we no lynched on this basis, do you think scum would be stupid enough to kill someone that contradicted your theory if the scumteam wasn't Hoopla, charter or Cyberbob?

This wouldn't improve your theory's credibility at all, with the only thing happening is losing another town member. We might as well do that by lynching, with the added bonus of possibily hitting scum (yay).

There is NO person that could be killed who wouldn't help me reach a conclusion. The key thing is mislynches. Usually no lynching is bad because you have 0 chance to kill scum and you lose enough town to possibly have one less lynch before lylo.

A no lynch here would cost us no extra lynches, would show the alignment of SOMEBODY, and there's literally no obvious choices for confirmed town here, and give any possible remaining power roles one extra night to work their magic.

Now I know it's not going to happen and it's cool if we don't, because it's non standard play, and I always have this argument with the rest of the town when I'm calling for a massclaim early so I'm used to it, but the argument that we are goingto lose a townie is a poor one. We're going to gain information and

not lose a lynch

.

[SerialClergyman]

Raskol isn't the worst lynch today, but I'll rightly be lynched tomorrow if he's scum, so might as well stand tall and proud. Could use a vote count right here to see what the wagon is like.

[SerialClergyman]

If you have a look at D2, I was prepared to lynch him then too. So possibly I went the double bus/back down.

I decide to bus, I push the case as hard if not harder than anyone, I goad him into posting his own L-1 vote then shit gets too real for me and I unvote my scumbuddy?

That's the working theory?

[SerialClergyman]

I thought that might be the case charter, but I wasn't blindingly protown until AFTER cracking the game open.

If you are town - it would be the equivalent of the town all voting for my new theory and cyberbob and hoopla being scum. I look scummy now but after the game people would say obvtown.

Look at D2 and D3 - I was regularly called out as scummy, accused of rolefishing by townie players, lurked, blatantly attacked the softclaiming bunny despite the consesnsus by most players (all except for iam who had role-based info) that he was town. I even had a wagon on me that got to 5 votes. You yourself called me out as probably scum on D3. Imagine if I had been WRONG about rofl or tajo. In fact, if I was wrong about tajo being a hider, I was sure to be lynched at some point during lylo and would have lost us the game.

In that game, I made a risky decision to go with my gut, I convinced people to join me and in hindsight everyone is happy because it was the right call.

In this game, I made a risky decision to go with my gut, and I've failed to convince people to join me.

But saying I'm likely to be scum because of it is just not true, it's actually a total parallel with that game. I still don't know if I'm right this game or not, but i'm prepared to go with it.

And dammit, at least if you lynch raskol over me we can look more closely at my theory tomorrow if he flips town, and you can flat out lynch me if he flips scum and I'm wrong. Lynching me and getting town will give you bugger all to go on other than this theory I have is good-intentioned and now you're in lylo trying to guess who isn't scum.

[SerialClergyman]

Dammit charter, actually respond to what I'm saying. This is a critical part of the game and if you think the /invitational is a critical reason why you think I'm scum it's a rubbish reason to base it on.

Remember this day 3

Fifthly was probably something like "SC is totally scum", but I must have deleted it because I was repeating myself.

or this:

Fourth, I find SC scummy as well. Sixth, I am pretty damn sure EK is IAUN's buddy with this bizarre way she is going about his claim. Last, I think SC is their buddy too.

It doesn't make me town that you thought I was scummy in that game as well, but if you're trying to say that you had a town read on me all game in /in it's totally incorrect and you shouldn't be basing your opinion on it.

Cyberbob - your attempt to take a proper rebuttal of me culminated in two points -
1) I am making too many assumptions and
2) I am too definite in my statements.

I'd note that neither is actually a hole in my thinking process or the conclusion because of it. For reason 2), I think that's at best a bad attempt at tryign to find a scumtell. We're all big boys and girls, we can all handle the fact that obviously noone knows if I'm correct or not, including me, and when I say that someone is town or is scum I mean that they are likely to be town or scum via this thinking. PLUS there's been an abundance of 'blah is blah' statements from a variety of people and I've never heard you complain aobut it before. I think reason 2) is pure waffle.

Reason 1) has more merit, but I'd disagree. The question 'who is raskol's partner' actually leads me to that conclusion surprisingly easily. It is of course possible that I'm incorrect but it feels more right than any other group of people. I'm not afraid to unvote someone purely based on the people on their lynch, or who is leading the lynch. I'm not afraid to vote someone who hasn't put a foot wrong if their position in the town doesn't seem to make sense (see tajo in the /invitational). And I'm not afraid to unvote someone if them being scum doesn't fit without a partner.

And possibly more important than all of that is that none of this stuff makes me scummy, dammit. Following your reads and being open about them is bloody pro bloody town bloody behaviour. I'm on just about everyone's scumlist apart from perhaps cam and that's precisely because I've stepped out of the box and detailed my theories, despite how many feathers it ruffled. There's a stupid theory around that I'm raskol's scumpartner despite trying to lynch him both in D2 and D4 and it ONLY developed because I bothered to switch to him from le chat and to switch from him when it didn't make sense any more.

I dont' expect to get a lynch of Hoopla or charter or Cyberbob. And at least killing Raskol will allow us to see whether I've totally gotten myself caught up chasing shadows or if I'm onto something. It will also rule out the worrying possibility of there being only 2 scum members and raskol is just alone doing anythign he can to not get lynched, in which case my theory is all shot.

But dammit, lynching people who are honestly and openly pushing their views, no matter how they chance and despite the political pressure they'll face is a dead stupid decision. So I'm not going to vote Raskol, I didn't hammer him when he was L-1, and while I'd love people to put some more effort into thinking though where they think the scumteam is, if it comes down to either of us I damn well hope you guys lynch him over me.

[SerialClergyman]

Preview would have been useful. Sorry for urging you to respond after you'd already responded.

I'm getting too fired up. I'll try and cool it.

charter - you totally just ignored everything I wrote about the meta YOU brought up and said was one of your biggest reasons for thinking I'm scum.

If Raskol is scum, my entire play from my unvote on will obviously look like a last minute attempt at saving him. I understand that people would be aying for blood, and it wouldn't be lylo. I'm just ok with that scenario. I'd prefer to find out that I'm wrong during raskol's lynch than during endgame.

I'm not offering you a trade, I'm not saying that I'd self-hammer or anythign if he was scum, and i'd do my best to re-evaluate and let you know who I thought was scum and everything else, but I'd totally understand that I had to go. What I do NOT understand is why you think I'm so scummy now.

[SerialClergyman]

I had pages and pages of pushing for him today. The only time I stopped is when he looked totally committed to his own lynch, and that's when I started wondering if it was just bad town play as opposed to scummy play. That's what led me to wondering about his partner if it wasn't le chat and voila.

And haven't you dropped your buddies theory to go with me scum him town? Are you jsut automatically disagreeing with me?

[SerialClergyman]

It's not that distancing isn't possible, it's that there's NO REASON for raskol to try his gambit if they are both scum.

DDD reads dead straight town to me. What can I say? He's shown no deception or self-preservation or anything that makes me think he's scum.

Raskol I could be wrong on, but I jsut get the feeling that it's real. I don't think his self-vote was a gambit. We were so hounding him for so long that self-voting and the martyr stuff was scummy, then he went and did it anyway. Did he expect it was some kind of zany double bluff? To me, that looked like someone prepared to die for his belief. So I unvoted to give myself room, and then started wondering who his partner was. Now I'm here.

Why would I go through this grilling from every man and their dog to try to seperate from a mislynch? I knew I was going to cop some flak, you knew it, it was always going to be MORE DANGEROUS for me to move away from the mislynch than just sit on it.

You say that Peabody's vote for me doesn't clear me because he wasn't pushing for my lynch. He never pushed for anyone's lynch though.

Stuff like this is wheer I start really thinking you're scum. You've tried to get that vote to clear you for days now and every time with terribad reasoning. If he neverp ushed for anyone's lynch, he doesn't clear ANYONE. You're trying to actively say that his pushing of your lynch means you're town, but HE DIDN'T PUSH YOU.

You argument about my reads is meh - my reads are what I have to go on. I'm very confident in Vaya because I don'tb elive Peabody's 'emotional' outburst at all. I'm very confident that if vaya and coco are town, cam is town, and I'm believing raskol's willingness to die for what he believed in, so I believe cam. Cyberbob I could change my mind on, that'sjust in general basedo n how he played with low activity at the start of this day. DDD I've explained as well.

If someone is playing well as scum, that someone is you, cyberbob or hoopla. Most of my theory DEPENDS on the scum playing well. PBPAs help you suspect the person you are doing a PBPA on. Looking at the overall town dynamic and voting patterns is where you get your strongest gut reads.

[SerialClergyman]

Phrasing issue. I was saying in general there was low activity at the start of the day but you looked quite protown by keeping the discussion going with your activity.

[SerialClergyman]

I will try not to make definitive statements when they are my reads. If you want to police the entire thread for anyone who ever said something like 'you are scum' or 'blah is town' for consistency's sake, you're welcome to, but it's no reason to think I'm scum.

Ugh. If he's a buddy, I pushed and prodded him to l-1 then unvoted to try to save his life?
If he's town, I leave the le chat wagon to vote him then unvote juuuust as he's about to be lynched and you think I expect this to distance me from him?

I'm out for the night I think. I'll try to come at it tomorrow when I'm not as irritable.

Just stop looking at the non standard play and ask what the motivations are, seriously. Did I seriously believe I would be viewed as removed from a town raskol flip by that action? Did I think that i could save my scumbuddy raskol and get the suspicion away from us?

[SerialClergyman]

Phrasing issue. I was saying in general there was low activity at the start of the day but you looked quite protown by keeping the discussion going with your activity.

Ah, cool. Sorry about that.

all good, it was ambiguous.

[SerialClergyman]

So invitational 4 is over now, and difference in play is a huge reason I'm leaning towards Serial. Blindingly protown in that game, not very much here.

Hmmm, that is right, I did suspect you. Happened so long ago, I forgot it. However, I'm still going to go back and look for the holes I am pretty sure are there.

Well, I'm more sure Serial is scum at this point than Raskol.

vote Serial

/wrists.

I kind of question why you would bring this up though, since if DDD flips scum, you look like a plausible partner for him since he is writing off all of Coco's play as dumb but not scummy.

Arg... that makes it an EPIC TOWN TELL. Because it's detrimental to self but concerned about finding scum.

It's time to stop pussyfooting around and in the spirit of raskol's recent post against le chat start to play balls out mafia.

Since voting le chat, raskol and charter in turn, I've been voted by le chat, then raskol, then charter. there is a prevailing theory that either I'm partners with raskol, decided to bus, goaded him into self-voting to l-1 then got cold feet at the last minute and tried to defuse the situation.
The other theory is that he's town and I'm scum, in which case I built up pressure against a scummy player who a lot of people wanted to lynch until he actually voted himself, doing osmething alsmot universally regarded as scummy and at THAT MOMENT decide that I didn't want to be on the wagon and that it'd somehow totally escape notice if I unvoted and revamped my thinking.

Rubbish. Utter rubbish. I can only hope that the town see someone who is struggling to solve the game, despite ruffling feathers. Even if you think my theories are retarded, you can still see that the style of play makes far more sense from a town point of view. If I'm scum, I've picked up at least two votes I could have avoided by not accusing different people. The only reason I'm even a lynching possibility is because I'm trying to solve the game for us.

But enough about me.

charter is either crazy tunnelled and has been wrong literally all game or is scum. Don't get me wrong, mate, I really enjoy playing with you, but this can't fly. Attempted derail of the Peabody wagon when it was starting to gain traction, and wasn't on the wagon when he was lynched. Epic pushing of cathart all through D1 and D2 culminating in a lynch. Wrong about raskol, wrong about me. Says that the /inv was a 'huge reason' why he was leaning to me, when I pointed out in fact it was the TOTAL OPPOSITE of what he was saying, he nonetheless votes me anyway within 20 posts.

Hoopla has done nothing to confirm or deny her current suspicions, and it seems like she's hanging on to the DDD vote for the same reason I didn't - because it's safe and easy and won't get you votes. I'd like Hoopla to go over why she's voting for DDD again and ask whether her views on him have been influenced over the past 5 days. Hoopla's reaction to my theory was off as well. SHe was by far the most receptive in tone, conceding that it was better than she had thought and even claiming to possibly get behind it even though she was in the firing line, but only if she knew my intentions were pure. Well, one lynch down puts us at lylo and that makes things much harder to orchestrate. Plus, if I'm dead then lynchbait DDD and raskol are still around and they're likely to provide easy targets away from the theory.

Cyberbob is hard because RL affected his posting at a critical juncture. He's been more negative towards me and my recent suggestion than I would have expected from town, but it could be because it's unconventional, and that throws a lot of town players. His activity kept the town going at the start of the day which is a mild town tell. His vote never moved from Peabody D1 and he did seem to genuinely encourage the wagon. If he's scum, that's an EPIC bus.

So I think it's two of them, and charter and Hoopla look most likely. I've I've just wrecked the game for town I apologise in advance, but this is the only way to play mafia - you have to back your reads when they're coming to you and that's where it is.

[SerialClergyman]

I've

If I've just wrecked the game for town I apologise in advance

[SerialClergyman]

I think my walls with you are reaching a point of diminished returns, and I'm more convinced that I can't convince you because of your motives. So I'm feeling less inclined to continue, but I'll give you one more focusing on 1391.

Serial says he isn't positive Raskol is scum, but unvotes even after Raskol commits a scummy act. I suppose you could want more time, but it doesn't look very townie to me.

Think about this. A self-vote is scummy because as town it creates the lynch of a townie, correct? So unvoting makes that lynch less likely, at least in the immediate term.

Plus - raskol had zero expectation that his self-vote would achieve anything. Both you and I had railed on him for even hinting that he'd be prepared to do that. What was he looking to achieve? He couldn't have expected my reaction. It seems to me the most likely reason he did that is because he was genuine. Coupled with his lack of possible partners, that seriously turned me around on him.

Then, you come up with your theory in post 1287. This one magically pops up after you unvote Raskol and he selfvotes. This is that charter/Hoopla are scum. It stems entirely from assuming that le Chat and Coco and mathcam are town, when there's really no reason to assume this. You don't elaborate either.

Nothing magical about it. My reasoning and assumptions have always been laid out completely in the open. You don't have to agree, but there's no hiding it.

le chat is town because of DDD's play, I think.
CoCo because I believe raskol's genuine as outlined above, and since then has made some town points.
Cam because of how he moved town focus from two town players earlier in the day, assuming coco and vaya are town. This is one of my biggest town tells, it's downright dangerous to do that as scum.

You argue for no lynching some, which is a really awful idea. Then you argue for it some more saying you'd be happy with it if scum kill mathcam. Ok.... Like that's likely if you're both town after you post that.

I was clearly directly replying to Socrates' suggestion of mathcam that he made.

but I will go out on a limb and say that hell will freeze over before we lynch MathCam today,

But the point is moot - give me a player and I'll tell you why their death at the hands of the mafia after a no lynch is worthwhile. There's noone in this group I'd consider so confirmed that their death and flip wouldn't help the town's decisionmaking process.

Then you explain why you rule out Coco/le Chat. Really weak reasoning, you write off distancing as not possible. I don't see why Coco or le Chat can't be scum with someone else, why do they have to be scum together?

I answered this above in terms of their individual liklihood to be scum. The key point I was making is that they specifically cannot be scum together, which was the prevailing opinion at the time.

You say that me and Hoopla aren't bringing up good objections to your theories. Here's another one. You assume that mathcam, Vaya, and Cyberbob are all town and you rule them out as possible buddies. However, there's really not much preventing them from being buddies with le Chat or Coco, other than they haven't been playing scummy. Entirely possible they are scum and just playing well, but you've completely written it off.

I think vaya isn't scum primarily due to peabody's 'outburst'. If it was honest, why only mention 1 of his two scum partners? (since vaya was roleblocked by cathart, he would have had to be part of a 3-man scum team.) If it was honest, where was the emotional instability before that post? I can ignore links between players because Vaya is town before considering anything else.

Cam and Bob I detail in posts above, but aside from their general pro town play -
I stand by what I said when I said that if vaya and coco are town, cam is town. So he can only be partners with coco. I don't think Coco is scum, so I don't think cam is scum, but it's lightly concievable. Cam/le chat makes no sense because Cam would have had to be epically stupid to pull the lynch off of either Vaya and CoCo to put it on someone else if they were both town. It just doesn't happen that way. Add to all that Cam's general play and he looks very town to me.

Bob is harder. Since thinking that CoCo and DDD aren't scum, that puts a fair amount of suspicion on Bob just by PoE. His case on Peabody was an epic bus if he's scum, though, and his guiding us through the start of this day was a light pro-town move. I think that he's probably more pro-town than either you or Hoopla, which is why when I end up with you, Hoopla and Bob I pick you and Hoopla as likely scum.

le Chat has practically no connections to anyone, and Coco has so many you could never pick out the fake ones. You're ignoring individual scumminess and only considering pairs of scumminess. A dangerous pitfall if someone playing well is scum, you'll never have a chance to suspect them.

None of this is actually true. I'm looking at individual scumminess for some people and then using connections and PoE to form my scumteam. That's a very solid way to operate, and much better than 'lynch the most VI-est of the remaining players' that happens when you only focus on individual 'scumminess'. If someone literally cannot have a scum partner in the game based on connections, they are unlikely to be scum. If someone's wagon looks solidly town, they are likely to be scum. There's far more things to use (that are far more reliable) than looking at silly tells like whether someone says blah is town or blah is LIKELY to be town.

And no, I still think Raskol is scummy as hell, but your unvote and now writing him off completely as town seems a heck of a lot like distancing from a mislynch. I can't just try and lynch Raskol today, and if he flips town go for you tomorrow. Already made a huge mistake similar to that with Cathart. Got to get it right today.

Well,, you seem to be making no effort to get it right. As I said, when I pointed out that a 'huge reason' for your leaning scum on me was actually totally and utterly the opposite of the point you were making, it didn't seem to faze you in the least.

Your conflicting stance on me both being a buddy and an opportunistic scum on Raskol is indicative that either you haven't thought it through or are prepared to lynch with a unresolvable problem in your theory. Either it's scummy defensive or scummy offensive, but you can't split the difference here. It can't be scummy for both reasons.

Yes, this seems very plausible and I'm sure I've seen it happen many a time. A townie does something so scummy, that a scum uses the "too scummy to be scum" fallacy and hops off the wagon, knowing that it will continue without them, and try to earn townie cred by not being on it.

Yes, I realize I'm using the assumption of Raskol being town in order to push another point on you while my current theory is Raskol/Serial scum. I've said that it's possible that Raskol is town and you're scum, and with your unvote and epiphany of Raskol, I think you're the person we should lynch today.

Well, I didn't just hop off the wagon, I argued for a complete change in position and continue to. I could have hammered raskol to save my own skin when he was L-1 after jumping off the wagon but I didn't.

And I'm almost certain you never see scum egg on and attack and push the townie about self-voting and then finally as the payoff gets there, and he self-votes and the wagon is now absolutely and undeniably legitimate because everyone hates an unvoter, then hops off. If I was scum, I was pushing raskol into looking more scummy with my pressure. It's stupid to suggest I'd entrench myself that firmly into the wagon and go to those lengths to get that reaction only to quit the wagon when it's at it's most legitimate.

I unvoted because when he self-voted I needed time to think, I couldn't see who his partner was and felt it couldn't be DDD and because when he self-voted he knew we'd find it scummy and only press the lynch further but he did it anyway, a sign he was actually prepared to go through with it.

'm going off memory here, but I believe I was posting for a bit when Peabody was at L-1, and then I jumped off after others had unvoted, and he was at like L-3. So I didn't derail when it was starting to gain traction, but after it petered out.

This is true - my mistake. I thought you had unvoted on L-1 when actually Talitha had already unvoted. That drops the scumminess of that aspect significantly.

[SerialClergyman]

Well - you haven't commented on whether or not you DO agree with many of my reads and the predictions I make - regardless of whether you like the way I've come to my conclusion. Essentially, all I've heard from you is 'the theory is not something I'd ever do and SC is scummy', without talking about possible town motivations behind my play, whether any of my reads make sense of any of the other stuff you'd have to consider if you were weighing up what I've been saying. I'm not having a sulk about it, I'm trying to determine whether you're a townie who thought through what is a radical shifti n thought or whether you're scum who took the path of dismissing what I'm saying.

As for

It's not so much that the structure of the theory is unconventional, it's that you make so many assumptions and you pass so many of your reads off as fact that you feel comfortable declaring the possible locations of the remaining scum in hard probabilities.

Lol - declaring where the possible scum are based on a few assumptions is exactly why it's unconventional.

I think you could afford to open your mind a little here. I know I'm not giving you a PBPA with 30 different posts with the words 'possible buddying??' underneath each one, but I'd back this way as much as any other. You're free to analyse my reads in full, I've given a clear record in full. But if you're unable to find much wrong with them, the conclusions follow. It's not outlandish. Any time you suggest that someone is scum, you're making a lot of assumptions about them and the people around them. I'm happy to view my assumptions as fact because you have to start narrowing down the option. I'm aware I could be wrong, and on some points I could be more likely to be wrong than others, but that's not the point - they are all reasonable steps and come to a solid conclusion.

That was waffly but I'm trying to work out what your real problem here is. You're voting Raskol, so presumably you're assuming that most other people aren't scum? Why aren't you voting Hoopla or Socrates? Because, presumably, although you recognise you could be wrong, you think they're town. That's exactly what I'm doing when I come to my conclusions as well.

[SerialClergyman]

No worries, we'll leave it there

[SerialClergyman]

Nope, because both of those reasons don't clear him. It's quite possible a partner did the kill N1 and Sens chose a partner to hide behind, if that's what happened.

What's special about vaya is Peabody's posts, whether you like it or not. I rule out emotional outburst because if it was true, and he was having an emotional outburst about his scum partner, Vaya would have to be Peabody's only partner. Vaya was blocked that night and a kill went through, therefore Peabody's outburst cannot be true.

It doesn't take much WIFOM to reason through that, and putting your hands over your ears and singing lalalalala don't talk about that lalalal won't help.

[SerialClergyman]

Who's believing him? I think I just made a pretty strong case for rejecting any chance that his emotional outburst was truthful..

[SerialClergyman]

Ok. Raskol it is.

unvote, vote Raskol

I can see you shaping to come after me tomorrow, charter, you sneaky yet lovable individual

[SerialClergyman]

Methinks someone who actually thinks you're scum could have the balls to say yes to that request.

[SerialClergyman]

charter - I don't have the numbers, I clearly can't get you, hoopla or cyberbob lynched. I've tried as hard as is reasonable to get you lynched and the only result was general indifference, me being called scummy and people getting edgy about the day dragging on.

I don't know what you expect Raskol to do if he's town. What would you suggest?

[SerialClergyman]

By the way - I will absolutely look at that theory tomorrow if Raskol flips town. I'd much prefer to do so now though.

Your position is that raskol and SC should both be lynched, regardless if the first one of those two flips town or scum, which is a damn scummy position. That's the inherit problem if you're town of using logic like 'I think you're scum because you either got off a town wagon or tried to save a scum buddy'. All it's doing is giving you full license to come after me regardless of the next flip.

[SerialClergyman]

Nah, don't do it.

[SerialClergyman]

That's SO NOT just in, raskol It's been the case for dayyssss..

Not being able to lynch hoopla, charter, or cyberbob means you're not trying hard enough or there's nothing there. Do you think Raskol is scum even?

*slap* for making one of the worst dichotomies I've ever seen. If you think I haven't been trying hard enough to get people to listen you can pay for the two keyboards I've broken writing wall after wall. I'm trying hard enough, and I'm still pretty sure there's something there (if there wasn't, by the way, it'd be EASIER because there would be no scum resistance.) The simple explanation is Hoopla has gone into 'not even reading till we lynch' mode, DDD is inexplicably tunnelled to all hell, and few others are prepared to give up a 'scummy' lynch for a PoE probable scum lynch.

If Raskol flips town, as I think he will, you will come after me just as hard, having happily abandoned your 'Serial is scumbuddies with Raskol' plan. I will push the theory once again, and some people will hopefully see that my unvote was geuine now that they know me being a scumbuddy isn't possible.

[SerialClergyman]

No worries.

I tried to address that in the second bit, but didn't phrase it very well. We need a lynch. A raskol lynch would eliminate anyone who currently suspects SC/raskol or DDD/raskol and get them onto something better. There's no point in my sitting there with my forlorn solo vote on you, and it's not like people don't know who I want lynched.

There is one possible problem that I'm only now thinking of actually.

DDD - is there anything I can do to allieviate suspicion, either now or tomorrow after a raskol flip? Anything I haven't explained or whatever?

[SerialClergyman]

Ok, assume truth on my behalf. What do I do?

I'm actually thinking of a course of action but I need ddd to respond.

[SerialClergyman]

Also, if I'm town after you lynch me, who would you vote tomorrow?

[SerialClergyman]

I say that charter because a raskol lynch isn't appropriate.

Ddd, cheers for that.

vote ddd

it occurs to me that whether you are town or scum, we both can't be alive tomorrow. Say you're town and we lynch raskol who town flips. You will be voting me in lylo and I can't change your mind. That gives away all hope of a win. And if I'm wrong and you're scum, your lynch is obviously an excellent choice.

The other obvious possibility is that this is seen as scummy gambiting, but then I'll be lynched and we definitely will hve a chance come lylo because you won't be automatically voting a townie.

So I think your tunnelling forces the town to choose between us.

[SerialClergyman]

Look, I know I've had fifteen changes of mind and I'm sorry, but that's mafia. But read my post above about ddd. We can't go into lylo with me and dd alive if were both town. Lynch charter, failing that lynch ddd, failing that lynch me.

[SerialClergyman]

Your simultaeneous cheap one liners aside, I was talking to cam.

[SerialClergyman]

Less Penn more teller.

But no worries charter - we are all irritable because of the slow deadline. Me continuing to talk probably doesn't help. I'll try and shut up

[SerialClergyman]

Go for it. It's a better lynch than some others.

Ddd, learn to open mind more than that, if town.
Look at charter tomorrow, this will be the nth time he's been 'wrong'. Don't let him make an easy case.
Remember to no lynch like we should have today.

I'm sorry I haven't been better but that's the best I could do. Hope you guys rock the house and bring it home tomorrow!

[SerialClergyman]

And raskol, if you're not town I will kill a kitten in anger.

[SerialClergyman]

Pssst... Hoopla... That's your cue.

[SerialClergyman]

Go town!

Good luck, guys.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, congratulations town!

Also, commiserations mafia - I think you all played well, but particularly Hoopla and Cyberbob. There was very little about their play that indicated mafia to me.

I think this game has been a very interesting experience to me. I had cyberbob as a gut scum read from D1, but as soon as I talked aobut it a bit I lost it because I think he adjusted his play mildly. I also thought Hoopla was town D1 so I can't claim that I was particularly strong in my reads.

But the key thing as I went on in the game was deciding that I wouldn't find scum with 'scumtells' and 'scummy play'. I have no idea how to hunt for scum using scumtells and I'm surprised there are people who do. I find so many tells on just about everyone at one point or another I jsut go around in circles.

I'm genuinely proud that if I'd had my way from the end of D3 onwards, we would have won the game. I probably would have lynched charter, but I couldn't find a reason to clear him and I thought he was the most likely to be scummy out of the three, particularly when he said he was shaping up to vote me while I was voting raskol with him.

But aside from that, I had the scumteam pegged, and even though it's an unorthodox way of hunting, I think the holistic approach with a few key assumptions is definitely the way I'm most effective. It's essentially how I felt in the /inv. It's very frustrating to scum, because they haven't put a foot wrong yet still have the finger pointed at them. It takes away a lot of their control. In order to be classified as town they'd need to do something heavily agaisnt their win condition, like mathcam's shifting the lynch away from coco vs vaya. This puts them in a difficult position.

I'm not sure how much my theory affected the town thinking, the massclaim really caused the win, I think, but I think it made it easier for people to suspect bob and hoopla - it wasn't so outlandish a situation because there had already been a feasible theory showing how they could be scum. People like DDD had a pretty clear path once the claims came down.

The one major problem with my play was a lack of confidence in my thinking and what that meant. I was scummy all game and that gave me no capital to spend when I was trying to get my theory up. I knew halfway through detailing it I'd never convince anyone, I just looked too scummy to trust.

As it was, Peabody dying early meant the scum never used their 'kill a doc-protected' ability, which would have given them a fair bit more firepower. After that, they just couldn't get past the massclaim minefield.

And thanks to KK for a fun setup and solid modding.

So well played, bad luck, and congrats town on a great decision in lylo. A very close game and a very fun game for me personally.

[SerialClergyman]

Hehe yes, I have a special message for you in the green room, charter

[SerialClergyman]

Any chance of that scum QT link, btw?

[SerialClergyman]

Thanks for the QT - your code was fantastic.

Bad luck Hoopla - I saw your post in another thread somewhere talking about your losing streak and it actively put me off suspecting you early

[SerialClergyman]

Also Hoopla, reading your QT reminded me again and again how genuinely insightful you are. As I said during the game, in discussions about setup and structure and theory I think your opinions were excellent and really well thought out, so much so that I thought it was a scumtell that I rarely got that feeling about your scumhunting!

[SerialClergyman]

Yeah - if we'd have lynched raskol we'd quite possibly have lost the game due to DDD's tunnelling. I made the right call, but upon review, possibly the wrong policy. I have a dirty feeling of sacrificing a strong site-wide policy for the sake of winning one game, but nonetheless I read that it was legitimate, especially given how few partners he could have had, and the read was right (and I was tunnelled pretty hard on raskol).

Mind you, if we'd lynched charter I would have been turned on the next day and we'd have lost there as well, but so it goes.

Something I'd say as a general piece of advice, is changing your mind isn't scummy, dammit. Neither are people who look confused or a vote hopping. Usually that's a sign of genuinely struggling with the game.

DDD, you were obvtown to me, which is good, but your tunneling on your first read despite massive, gamechanging posts from me was both frustrating and dangerous. If cam hadn't died we might ahve been in trouble.

But your decision at the end was top notch, I'm defintiely glad there was no real push to lynch Socrates, one of the only two vanilla claims left.

[SerialClergyman]

I find it hilarious that charter is still giving the kind of advice that would have hurt our chances of winning, just to avoid admitting he was wrong. The fact that he told SC to change his play because he, charter, had a stubborn-stupid reaction to it is just mind-boggling.

No, that's unreasonable.

I think the underlying point from charter is that you can't allow self-voting to be regarded as a legitimate tactic. It's just not, and shouldn't ever be in a townie's arsenal. It's like Lynch ALl Liars - townies need to trust that other townies won't lie.

Some things, like preserving a site-wide dismissal about self-voting, may be more important than one player in one game.

[SerialClergyman]

SC, you have way too much energy and enthusiasm for this game.

Tell my other neglected games that

Charter can testify - I just need to get drawn in. In the /inv I posted 3 or 4 times on D1, but slowly got into the game and became ridiculously active. Same here, I went for long times with low activity because I just couldn't get any traction on my reads. As soon as my theory began and I started to feel I was onto something, I wrote a thesis every post.

I felt innocuous most of the game. KK nominated me for a best new player scummy somewhere aroudn the start of the D3 and I PMed him saying I was surprised given how awfully I was playing in his modded game. I was very, very gratified to learn that my theory, despite it's humble evidence, was dead on the money.

I don't agree with Sens, btw. If there's no policy argument, I think it's not optimal to say under any circumstaces vote self-hammer.

[SerialClergyman]

DDD - you make a fair point, but my play in the secondh alf of D3 was much much different.

That and when I specifically asked you about lylo you said essentially zero chance of changing your mind - that was when I knew I, you or scum had to die.

But as I said, you were obvtown, and at least your honesty and self-recognition of yoru position allowed us to make a decision that set us up for a win in lylo.

[SerialClergyman]

Don't be like that, Cathart - you played fine. We should be blamed for lynching you

[SerialClergyman]

Raskol - I'm not having a go at you, I just thought the summary that was 'I defended every single argument to a logical certainty and the only people voting me were doing so in some tunnelled, spite-induced bout of irrationality' wasn't an accurate reflection of the game.

As for OMGUS, I think it's more closely related then you think. I hear this argument about it's not OMGUS if there's a reason, but remarkably often the 'reason' has something to do with being voted by them. I say this not in criticism, but have a look at your major reads throughout the game. You think le chat is scum, but then when he defends you you think he's town (and still vote him using bad logic to claim that if he dies with you voting him you should be declared town or vice versa). You don't mention me until I vote you, then you vote me immediately after until I flip on you and start defending you when you again start to think I'm town. You think charter is scum all game. Your suspicions and town reads are remarkably in line with how people are treating you at the time.

Again, I don't mean to criticise, and my play was a testament on how to get yourself lynched as town, but I think it's unfair to say that you had done everything possible to defend yourself legitimately or to look for other legitimate targets and had no choice but to result to a self-voting plan.