Mini 811: Foggy Londontown Mafia - Over!


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Post Post #374 (isolation #0) » Tue Jul 07, 2009 1:08 am

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Hello kids!

I'm replacing in, nice to see many familiar faces :)

I've just come back from a funeral and I've got some other games to catch up on and 15 pages to read, so I'll be a little quiet for now but then content shall stream forth from me like bullshit from a politician :D

I expect a couple of days but it might be sooner
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Post Post #390 (isolation #1) » Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:13 pm

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I've taken to occasionally posting quotes that made me laugh during my re-read to make it a little less of a slog.

This one made me laugh out loud and got me in trouble with my boss because I interrupted his captioning. (I work in TV doing captioning for deaf people)
Hero764 wrote:
U make urself look rly retarded.
:roll:
Bahahahaha

Content post tonight, dear friends. (antsy irritable friends, looking at the first 8 pages)
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Post Post #391 (isolation #2) » Wed Jul 08, 2009 11:56 pm

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Far Cry telling us he's scum wrote:Well... I'm just saying that, if I were mafia, pushing so openly for a lynch would be against my playing style. I mean, if I were mafia, I wouldn't want to draw so much attention. Who would want to? As mafia, I would contribute, but not try to be SO open and draw suspicion to myself.
Why hasn't he been lynched yet?

Far Cry has been the most consistently scummy player all game and he SPECIFICALLY DESCRIBES HIS OWN SCUMMY PLAYSTYLE AS HOW HE WOULD PLAY IF SCUM. He hasn't pushed openly for a lynch, he has deliberately posted wishy-washy crap like 61, 96, 171, 271, 337, 340....

Look at his scum list @ 115! I find everyone either 'suspicious' or 'neutral' then vote the guy who is epically V/LA.

This cannot just be a VI play. He's played the game enough, by his own admission, to know that this is NOT town behaviour. Re-read some of those posts and then look above where he details exactly what he would do if he were scum. That description is identical to his play so far. Contributing but not be so open as to draw attention? Curious. In fact - given you say that as mafia you'd not push openly for a lynch. Exactly what scumhunting or pushing for a lynch have you done in this game?

The masons are interesting - I find it unbelieveable how much Hero has been defending Far Cry. We are lucky in that we have the chance to lynch FC first, because I suspect that will shed a good deal of light on Hero's alignment. For those that missed it earlier, Hero's most important effort in protecting Far Cry came on post 298 where he derails the wagon entirely by voting for nadroj, one of the many relatively useless active lurkers in the game. All momentum on the FC wagon dies and the town start reassessing again. Why not vote FC if you wanted to vote a scummy active lurker? Why not vote Wiirdo? Why wait until exactly that moment? Because it fits a consistent pattern of defending FC every chance you get. I find it highly dicey.

Other things I don't like about the masons - Monika's breadcrumb is very specific, but it's so late! Anyone could breadcrumb at 186, especially after the word 'mason' had been bandied about for pages and pages. To me, the entire point of a breadcrumb is that it has to be early and specific. If I am L-2, quickly write my role down the side of the page then claim in the next post, noone would believe my crumb and rightly so.

Finally - I also don't like how the masons completely and utterly dropped the case on kiku. I happen to think kiku is town based on meta, but if I were masons, pushing against someone i thought was scum, and then had to claim - why on earth would I essentially drop my case after i claimed? Wouldn't the fact you are now confirmable mean that you would have every reason to redouble your case against her? That leads me to think that perhaps you didn't really tihnk she was scum at all.

But enough about the claimed masons. I think they shouldn't be lynched, and we'll end up knowing their alignment. Also, as qwints knows, I have a bad habit of finding mason claims scummy :(

Finally - Wiirdo! Who has let this guy come in and fail to draw any form of criticism or response bar a short period of voting from iamusername? I challenge you to look at his posts in iso to find any hint of scumhunting or definitive opinions, aside from a limp attempt in his latest couple of posts. He's been active lurking since day 1.

Some snippets from the sort of posts he usually makes:
I am not really a fan of kiku's playstyle, but it IS producing some results.
Now, I don't agree that a deadline lynch would be benificial for the town, because as qwints said earlier, it's open to manipulation. Scum could easily argue a policy that benefits them without much suspicion.
Hmm, this is bound to change the game up quite a bit.
I agree with qwints in that kiku is pushing for a claim based on very little. It's not likely that they're masons, or even that masons exist in this setup.
directly followed by
iku: I have no idea if masons are in, because this is my first mini game, but I would have thought that they wouldn't be in over half the games.

He could just claim mason and lie anyway.
Sorry for not posting yet. Right now I shall withhold my vote until further investigations show some evidence.
Have a look at him in iso then berate yourselves for letting him get away with this little effort, content and suspicion. The only thing that's keeping me from voting him is that I think that Far Cry is obvscum.

Speaking of which -
unvote, vote: Far_Cry
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Post Post #394 (isolation #3) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:55 am

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qwints, my three major points about the masons were
a) Hero defending FC
b) breadcrumbing was late
c) dropping the case on kiku for no apparant reason.

Which of these did you disagree with?
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Post Post #410 (isolation #4) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 1:31 pm

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Hero - you have to look at your actions in context. You've been defending him all game, been called out for defending him. I agree with you that it's ok to defend osmeone when there's a dodgy case on him, but the case on FC is GOOD, he IS ACTING SCUMMY. Then even when you're pushed up against a wall for defending him so strongly, are accused of being masons with him (and turn out claim masons with someone else), you STILL end up defending him.

So take a look at someone who is defending someone scummy, no matter how scummy they get, and when a bandwagon starts on them, despite 1 day earlier FoS'ing him, you choose THAT MOMENT to vote someone you hadn't mentioned as scummy all game.

It's just too convinient. And no, you couldn't tell exactly what other people were going to od, but when a bandwagon is forming and you vote one of the people forming it for 'scummy bandwagoning', what do you suggest is the likely out come of the vote?

Your meta defence of FC is also really inadequate. I understand that he mightn't be the most conventional player, and I understand that he might always post in this manner - but HE HIMSELF gave us a 'hypothetical' of how he would act if he was scum, and that fits his posting profile exactly. If you can't vote him based on a meta of his playstyle after that, I can only assume you have an ulterior motive.
1) Why the switch of vote? You think a policy lynch is better than lynching someone who is scummy?
And this dichotomy is total manipulation. How about a lynch on someone who is scummy and will give us more info if he flips is better than lynching someone who is a noob lurker?

Essentially - I don't believe you. Your current story is you've been defending FC all game because the attacks on him have been bad. You hadn't looked at nadroj much all game or declared any suspicion on him but you chose THAT MOMENT to vote him, just when votes were building against your bestest defending buddy FC. You claim you couldn't control what would happen after your vote, and that voting someone for 'scummy bandwagoning' in the middle of a forming wagon was not intended to pressure people away form the wagon.

Well I think all of those things are likely to be false. I say we vote FC and if he flips scum all eyes are on Hero tomorrow.

The lateness of the breadcrumb matters. If you're under pressure and you're looking ot claim mason and you have a post on the first page that crumbed that you were masons with Monika - well that's all well and good. The whole point is at that point of the game, you couldn't have known the situation, couldn't have known what was going to happen. when you refer ot that breadcrumb, I know it wasn't influenced by what's happened in the game, I know that you couldn't be claiming it because it fits the situation.

Now - say you're getting to be in trouble on page 7, there's a lot of talk, a lot of suggestions about what you might be. So you pick the most convienient claim and breadcrumb it right there! You have had a lot of time in the game ot pick the most convineient claim at that point. If the talk was asking if you were a cop, you could have crumbed cop at that point. You see what I mean? The later the crumb, the more time you have to read the game state and pick a convienient or convincing crumb.

But that's neither here nor there. I'm pretty sure we can confirm the masons as false on a FC scumflip and probably town on an FC town flip, and coupled with his scumminess that makes him the play for today in my eyes.
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Post Post #413 (isolation #5) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 2:26 pm

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I have not been defending him all game. Don't even try to start this.
I'm not starting it [joke]I'm ENDING it - hehe sorry, couldn't help it :P[/joke]. Seriously though, I'm not arguing this with you. I think you've been defending him all game and it certainly seems that way to most of the town.
It's just too convinient. And no, you couldn't tell exactly what other people were going to od, but when a bandwagon is forming and you vote one of the people forming it for 'scummy bandwagoning', what do you suggest is the likely out come of the vote?
I'm glad there's a bandwagon on nadroj because I find him scummy. Is there a problem with that?
So you've changed your stance from 'I can't help what people do' to 'I'm happy I convinced them'?
Its obvious he was bullshitting during that whole fiasco(at least to me) and I don't think that makes him scum, just a bad player.
Epic disagreement.

Fair enough about the dank dichotomy point, but it's still framing it in biased terms to me.
Its WIFOM though, since scum wouldn't want you think that and would crumb earlier.
^^ makes no sense. Nothing WIFOM about it. Breadcrumbs are more convincing the earlier they are because it does not allow you to make a claim specific to the gamestate. The later the crumb is, the more information you have on a safe and believeable role. Doesn't suggest anything baout what scum would or wouldn't od, it just means if you crumb early, I know that hasn't been influenced by what's said and I'm more likely to be convinced that's definitely your role. If you crumb late, you have the possibility grow that your claim is tailor-made to fit the current game. So it's not necessarily about inherit scumminess, more that I am much more likely ot believe breadcrumbs that are early and specific. In this case yiou guys got specific, but you didn't get early, which puts you right back into unconfirmed in my eyes.

Part of what makes me frustrated and think you're not town, Hero, is that you make no acknowledgement of some of the really basic points in my case at all.
You KNOW you've been called out for defending FC all game, whether you agree with that assesment or not.
You KNOW that perhaps if you've been called out for defending FC and vote a third party you've never expressed suspicion of with a deliberate intention to move votes off FC's wagon, it's suspicious.

I don't know why you don't just say I've been accused of defending, I don't think I have. The timing of my vote on nadroj looks bad, that's true, but judge the case on it's merits etc etc. Instead you go off the rails and start warning me not to start on you defending FC and rail on about how it was just a coincidence and even though when you started voting him it was for scummy bandwagoning now his entire post history is scummy.

I know you're one for overreactions (no offense :P) but I'm not feeling the townie love this time. Plus accusing me of not reading the thread properly (zz you've played with me twice now) and tunneling (because dank with that last post after a whole game of decent scumhunting should be as suspicious as Far Cry with his continual scummy behaviour? Sorry, what??) is just not helpful or convincing.

If scummy-acting unuseful Far Cry flips scum, then scummy-acting FC-defending Hero is scum, in my book.
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Post Post #414 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 2:34 pm

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iamusername - you make a good point.

I'm struggling to understand why Hero is defending FC so much and this is the only way that I see that mkaes it fit. It's possible that the scum are sitting quietly while we argue about all this and I'm totally off track, but the claim was made in suspicious circumstances with a dodgy breadcrumb by one of the scummier players in the game.

Happily, we don't have to do anything drastic to determine if my theory is correct, we just need to lynch the scummiest player in the game so far.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:31 pm

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iam - the vote is not my main point of evidence, it's the latest point that hasn't been discussed to death.

It's definitely possible Hero wanted to vote Nadroj because he thought he was scummy. But the timing of it is extremely suspicious to me, isn't it to you? And usually people at page 15 have more than the very latest post to go on to vote someone scummy. All the stuff about his other bandwagoning or whatever is retreo-active - Hero cited that as a reason after his vote. So you have to decide whether that one post was enough to get Hero to vote him, or whether Hero is continuing his pattern of defending FC - I just happen to think it's the latter.

As for Nadroj, I agree he's in the band of 3 players who are unuseful to the town (Wiirdo, FC and nadroj) but put him at least scummy in that band. Actually that's not quite true, I think he's probably just as if not more scummy than Wiirdo, but I objected ot the total lack of pressure Wiirdo had for essentially the same behaviour.

But personally, I don't see this as nadroj vs FC, I see this as FC = scummiest player and his lynch would either confirm 2 townies or crack open the entire scumteam. I can't argue with that maths.

@Hero - I'm sorry I pissed you off but it's how I see it. Unfortunately this is a game of imperfect information and people who lie and that's how I saw it. I could be totally wrong, in which case I'll take my hat off to you.

I wasn't attacking your wording, I was attacking the fact that you seemed to be dismissing issues about how scummy the timing of your vote + your defending has been rather than acknowledging you could understand how we'd come ot that conclusion and disagreeing. If I'm town and caught in a difficult coincidence, I'd just say meh, I can understand how you all think that, but this is why it's untrue (see Lumberjack Mafia start of D3) as opposed to your reaction, which was really argumentative and dismissive. It could just be a playstyle thing though.

I did misunderstand about dank, but I still disagree. Dank didn't have a well-established history of defending FC, you did, Dank didn't act first, you did.

@ all Can anyone give me a good reason why we shouldn't lynch FC given he's the scummiest player on the town and his death would either close to confirm two townies or two scum?
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Post Post #420 (isolation #8) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:55 pm

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Arg - spamming the thread.

The pattern thing works if you have a pattern of defending FC which I certainly believe you do. You have interpreted his words very kindly, dismissed criticism of him acting scummy as something he always does, dismissed my point about FC laying out how he would act as scum specifically matching up with his current actions as him 'bullshitting'. So your vote fits that pattern, yes.

I think an attempt to dismiss arguments rather than acknowledge their merit is scummy. Dismissing them attempts to end the conversation, acknowledging what is meritorious or not about them attempts to solve the issue.

A history of defending FC means your dismantling of the FC wagon is much more significant than his. Your acting first means you were in a more significant position to affect the wagon (note Dank was voting FOR FC before your post.

Still would like an answer on why we shouldn't lynch FC given he's (to me) the scummiest player in the game and his flip would essentially clear two townies or nail two (more) scum.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:58 pm

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Hero - I understand that there's the VI principle in players like CJmiller, but CJ miller was actively not paying attention to the game and was more of a newbie than FC is. He also didn't post his own meta of what to do as scum without reaslising it applied directly to his current game, and he also didn't get defended by one person really prominently.

What would you do if FC was still alive at lylo? Just because he's a bad player doesn't mean he can't be scum, and there are plenty of reasons beyond general wishy washy scumtells to think he's scum this game.
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Post Post #425 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 4:55 pm

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Goddammit Hero, take a deep breath ><
WOW WHEN DID I SAY HE COULDN'T BE SCUM PLEASE POINT IT OUT
Hero argument: He acts like an idiot all the time, I don't think he's scum
SC's argument: Just because he's acting like an idiot doesn't mean he's not scum this time.

See? No need to get your panties in a twist. I'm just pointing out that your meta argument doesn't clear him, which we agree on. So now we're in agreement that the meta argument doesn't clear him, we can point out his scumminess, what's significant in this game compared ot his general meta approach, detailed in my first posti n the game at 391.

He's not an idiot for telling us he's scum, it's a slip. His point about the meta was made in relation to a completely different matter. He didn't realise that in telling us his idea of optimal scum play he was specifically describing his own play so far. Luckily for us, he did and we can analyse his play in that context rather than in a meta context and see he is playing exactly how he thinks scum should play.

Your kind inrepretation is in 73, 79, 86, 102, 108, 131, 244. This is what I mean when I use those words. You don't have to go over how legit you think they are, I know you don't agree you were interpretting him kindly, but I think you did.
You still neglect to address what was significant about my history made it significant,
Your kind interpretations of him and defending of him make you specifically derailing his wagon more significant because it completes a pattern. You seem to do whatever you can to draw suspicion away from FC. It was so significant, kiku thought you must be masons with him to justify just how much you don't want him lynched. I can't answer that question any more thoroughly.

I think I'm guilty of Albert's noob sin, trying to convince those you're attacking. And in addition, I'm spamming the thread. So this'll be my last post until there's some more input from some more people, I think. I'll be around though, os if you say something utterly outrageous you might draw me in to another post, Hero :D


Vote Count Ten

Far_Cry: 5 (kikuchiyo, nadroj15, qwints, SerialClergyman, dank)
nadroj15: 3 (Hero 764, Far_Cry, Lowell)
qwints: 1 (iamausername)

Not Voting: 3 (Mokina, Nikanor, Tenchi)

With 12 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Current deadline: Saturday, July 18th 8:10 AM EST
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Post Post #426 (isolation #11) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 5:03 pm

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Welcome also. I just replaced in too. The re-read isn't bad (replaced into a game with Mastin a week or two ago)
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Post Post #431 (isolation #12) » Thu Jul 09, 2009 5:18 pm

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No worries mate, I know how it feels! :D

True to my word, I'll leave off ocmmmenting for fear of spamming + going around in circles.
You poor sap. ^_^
:D
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Post Post #477 (isolation #13) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:54 pm

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unvote Far_Cry
:roll:

I am going to join the worrying number of people who hopped on the bandwagon and then hopped off quickly without wanting to lynch a claimed doc. I feel like there's a few people doing the work in this game and a lot of people hanging on for the ride.

I don't think the doc should claim, I'm sure we can deal with FC without losing a role if we need to.

I still think FC is scum. No breadcrumbs, he still hasn't actually defended himself, he's just come up with a claim that works. He hasn't explained himself, talked about his thought process or built any sort of decent case. In short - the claim looks transparently false.

Not to mention the i am total shit in your eyes and what if I'm a jester posts ><.

Also - there's only 12 people, and we apparantly have masons and a doc already.

But having said all that, I don't think there's much reason to risk it.

Mind you - unless I get some legitimate talk from him I think it's unreasonable to just drop it here. Far_Cry - you need to answer the question better than:
About wat u said last, wat SC said was true, but I don't rly have anyone to openly push a lynch on, yet.
Either have a better answer or START CONTRIBUTING.

Out of the fallout - I give townie points to Monika. People who step up and vote who is scummy deserve credit. Hero, on the other hand, seems very worried about his own hide. Either they're both scum and Monika is better at it (no offence :P) or they're both town and Hero needs to realise that his death isn't the end of the world, and if FC was lynched and flipped scum that's definitely a good result, regardless of the suspicion that puts on himself.

I've also rated iamusername's posts, despite disagreeing with me on almost everything. He's posting considered responses and avoided the easy bandwagon. Good man.

I do not like dank's recent postings.

iso post 34 votes FC
iso post 35 votes nadroj
iso post 40 votes FC
iso post 44 unvotes
iso post 48 FoS's Mokina

Talk about going with the flow . It's really easy to throw your vote on the lurkers that other people are pointing out as scummy and attacking someone who is prepared to lynch the claimed doc.

FoS dank.

I guess nadroj becomes the play of the day then, until he fakeclaims something as well.
vote nadroj


I'm going to do a re-read of dank and nadroj when I get a bit of time and try and convince myself either of them is a better case than FC. I will also curse easy fakeclaims with zero additional work, scumhunting or effort to an uncaring world. :D
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Post Post #480 (isolation #14) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:34 pm

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dank - you were more than welcome to vote FC.

then you switched when someone else voted nadroj. Well, that's okish, but a bit dicey. I find it very hard to switch my vote that quickly without a really convincing reason (claim or counter-claim, cop result etc etc)

Then you go back to FC a few posts later after someone else does some work in reviewing the players and trying to hunt scum.

Post 44 you unvote without looking anywhere else or doing much of anything, just unvote because you feel you have to. Remember - your reasons for switching votes between nadroj and FC so much was that you found them equally scummy. So where's the vote on nadroj?

So up until this point you have contributed very little to the game in this last little exchange. You've been apparantly deciding between two people, but you don't seem to care who you vote. Every time you switch you do it on the back of other people doing the work in finding them, and now when you unvote after a claim you don't go back to someone you found equally as scummy. It's very, very safe play.

Even your reasoning for being on FC's bandwagon always seems to be nice 'excuse' reasons for tomorrow. Things like 'he's anti-town and unuseful' rather than 'he's scummy'.

In fact, re-reading closely, you say that you're 'fine with a nad lynch' but you wanted to bring Mokina to the town's attention first. But you didn't know how Mokina was going ot react when you unvoted. So when you unvoted, why not vote nad straight away?

Then, your attack on Mokina looks like a poor move to me. For one - it's ill-considered. Mokina has claimed mason with Hero, so if you're attacking her, you have to realise that the attack should be related back to Hero. Otherwise you're just chucking out an FoS with no intent behind it, which may earn you points but isn't useful. Secondly, her position is obvtown. People who are prepared to lynch someone who looks dead scummy after a l-1 claim are showing that they have a serious intent to scumhunt. She's using her mason position, if she is town, well, because she's taking a strong stance with it from an easily confirmable place. You are the one asking for the real doc to out himself in order to lynch FC, scummiest of the scum - that's far more dicey to my mind.

However - from a general position, you're still playing it safe. Because you're probably going ot go right back to the 'I was just trying ot protect the town from making a mistake' line.

To me - I think townies should be pushing, hunting, attacking, because if they get it wrong or look scummy in the process they can be mislynched and it's no big deal - they're expendable. What I really don't like about what I've outlied above is the
safe
ness of it all, the lack of pushing from you.

It's not enough to earn my vote, but it's enough to earn my suspicion.

Finally - I expect anyone in a non-newbie game to do a hell of a lot more than FC. If I look at his play, I see scum, not doctor. I say right now he won't flip doctor.

Look forward to your cases tomorrow.
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Post Post #481 (isolation #15) » Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:46 pm

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Oh - also, doc is easily the best scum fakeclaim. It's got as much chance of being countered as any other common role, but if you are counterclaimed by a cop, then the doc
remains hidden
, so the cop isn't going to be immediately NKed.

The only common role where once he claims he's dead? Doc. Thus making it perfect for a scum fakeclaim to nab a power role before they get killed.

So this idea of doc being a hard role to fakeclaim as scum is nonsense.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #16) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 4:42 am

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Ok, bring it on. I agree that going from one person to the next and lynching the first non-PR is a dodgy plan. I thought that momentum for an FC lynch was dead in the water but if we've got some people prepared to fire up, lets get this done!
unvote, vote Far_Cry


Plus, Tenchi told me to listen to thisguy, and the quote he gave was pure distilled awesome. :D

iamusername - I did consider the mason claim with my theory before - I've always said that my suspicion was the three of them were together. You've regularly said what you think of that idea, and I agree it's simplistic, but simplistic doesn't mean impossible - ruling it out because of scum motivations leads to WIFOMic reasoning - if they are a group of three they have every reason to push hard to keep all three alive.

Since then, Mokina's posts have gone a long way to derailing that theory, however.

I'm not sure that dank has 'totally outed himself as a partner'. Don't get me wrong, I'm suspicious of him and his recent behaviour, but I think putting him up as a definite partner is probably over the top. Why are you so sure?
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Post Post #492 (isolation #17) » Sat Jul 11, 2009 6:56 am

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It's 3:30am and I've got to go to bed, but I just read your posts so I thought I'd respond so you could have a chance to have another go while I slept.

I'm also a little drunk :D
sigh, why are you still representing my posts?
Sorry, should I be
mis
representing them? rofl :D I'm a captioner so typos are a way of life but I like this. Freudian slip methinks.

Most of what you say is just opinion stuff. I think some of your posts have been very safe. You've got that sort of holier than thou expression - however could we lynch the claimed doc. Zzz. We can lynch him because he's scummy as all hell and it's a common fakeclaim. Plus, the logical extension of your argument means we'll never lynch scum cos they'll just fakeclaim something. Anyway, you disagree, I would expect you to but meh.

I think the only area we have content issues is in the unvoting and revoting stuff. You rightly pointed out that I switched from FC and went back - but there's a big difference in yours and mine. You switched from VIABLE wagons which had MOMENTUM. I switched because it looked like the FC wagon was dead and I was trying to keep up the hunting. That's a massive difference. Also, I've made no secret which lynch I'd prefer, it can't be surprising to you that if there's a viable wagon on FC I'll be on it.

Additionally - the point about you not voting nadroj is more significant than you're making it out to be. You are supposedly a person struggling between two scummy alternatives, not knowing which one is worse, teetering between the two. But when you unvote FC after the claim, you don't vote nadroj? I just don't get that from a genuine, scumhunting townie. Where did all the suspicion, that you had just a day or two ago, go? You say you're going to re-read but why? Has nadroj done anything recently to make you doubt the case you had on him before?
Post 44 you unvote without looking anywhere else or doing much of anything, just unvote because you feel you have to. Remember - your reasons for switching votes between nadroj and FC so much was that you found them equally scummy. So where's the vote on nadroj?
This is ridiculous, I unvote because we have a
claimed doctor
, and you're finding it suspicious.
This gets at the heart of what I'm talking about. You're hiding behind the self-righteous argument about possibly protecting claimed doctors which doesn't even address the question about why not move your hunting onto the guy you thought was roughly equally scummy. Unvoting isn't the scummy part - unvoting without following up your other suspicions is suspect to me.

But go ahead with your re-read, and post your cases, both of which you didn't mention a peep about before I pointed out your recent bout of safe posts, and we'll go from there.

Bugger, it's 4am now :P

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Post Post #517 (isolation #18) » Sun Jul 12, 2009 8:33 pm

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Ok, well the game has stalled massively, and that's always going to happen when replacements come in. I appreciate you guys need to catch up but if you could really try to get around the latest developments and let us know what you're thinking about Far Cry that'd really help.

Gwyn - I don't understand where you're going with your questions. The mason question was asked and answered previously, the Lowell question is kinda old news (what's it going to tell you if his opinion has changed or not?) and telling Nikanor to post something isn't exactly content. Could you stop stalling and mention your thoughts about recent events? If you didn't like the people bandwagoning you, who did you think did it in a scummy way? Would you not have voted Nadroj? Which side are you picking/leaning on with regards to lynching Far Cry or not?

For those not in favour of lynching FC, in your cotton-wool wrapped shame, could you start putting up some alternatives? Both Wiirdo and nadroj have been replaced, so instead of just unvoting and barely posting, would you like to maybe re-read, try your hand at scumhunting and actually put yourselves out there a little? The biggest advantage to being a townie is that you're expendable, so you can afford to put your opinions out there and push people a bit. All this sitting around without a vote on not saying anything isn't useful.
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Post Post #536 (isolation #19) » Mon Jul 13, 2009 2:48 pm

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Gwyn - your vote for me is just one of those meh things that happen in this game. If your main reason was my vote for you (double meh) then I'll address it below.

I don't think anyone was having a go at people who replace in (I'm one of them) they are saying that obviously they'd prefer no replacements in a game because they are frustrating to play with and you do end up losing a lot of momentum. Noone would prefer the alternative where the game flakes, but everyone would prefer people to actually commit from start to finish (note my sig!)
Dank wrote:2. SC, you never did reply to when I pointed out with your own opportunistic bandwagon jumping in 493. Guess what, Gwyn brought it up again, so you get another chance. Do answer.

I gave your point the merit it deserved. Here was the post you had in 493:
I think the only area we have content issues is in the unvoting and revoting stuff. You rightly pointed out that I switched from FC and went back - but there's a big difference in yours and mine. You switched from VIABLE wagons which had MOMENTUM. I switched because it looked like the FC wagon was dead and I was trying to keep up the hunting. That's a massive difference. Also, I've made no secret which lynch I'd prefer, it can't be surprising to you that if there's a viable wagon on FC I'll be on it.
The thing I don't get is, if you want to lynch FC, why did you give up on it? As you say, a "genuine scumhunting townie" wouldn't give up because everyone else was losing faith in a case. He'd push for it and try to convince the others its the right choice. In case, you jump on the building nad wagon, and then jump back once iamausername and others do the convincing for you. That's far more opportunistic than anything I did.
I don't really see anything there that challenges what I posted. If you feel I should stubbornly sit there by myself with one solitary vote on the person I think is scummy then good on you, but that's not helping anyone. I can't say for sure who is scum so I'm not so tunnel minded as to focus only on one player if there's nothing viable about their wagon. Wiirdo was getting replaced so a vote on him was probably unnecessary, FC wagon was dying so I went with the next on the list, nadroj. When it became evident that the bandwagon was not dead, I went straight back to my first suspect.

And what's more, since when did other people do the convincing for me? Let's have a look at the amount of times I was QFT since I explained why I thought he was scum despite my unvote:
482 iamusername: Exactly.
483 Tenchi: ^ Please listen to that guy.
494 Mokina: My sentiments exactly.

All that theo thers did wasn't convince me it was the right bandwagon to be on, they
joined
the wagon so i knew it wasn't dead, and as soon as that was the case I'm back on him like a rash on a computer programmer.

So guess again, dank, scumhunting means more than OMGUSing someone who calls you out for being scummy. If you can't see the differences between my actions and yours you gotta be blind.

Actually no, I'll list them for you:

Dank uses other people's reasons to switch between FC and nadroj. SC doesn't, he actually posts long posts detailing his case and reasoning.
Dank switches from VIABLE wagons with votes and momentum. SC doesn't, he only switches when it seems wagons are dead.
Dank has two people he finds equally scummy then unvotes one but prefers to sit there without a vote rather than vote the other. SC switches his vote to the next most scummy and viable target.
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Post Post #539 (isolation #20) » Mon Jul 13, 2009 3:34 pm

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dank, either we have very different opinions on how to play the game for the town or I've nailed you as scum. I think a lot of our points are resting on each other with both of us disagreeing with each other.

Possibly the thing I disagree with you mostly is your idea of rushing. I find it really hard ot believe from a pro-town perspective that you think sitting there unvoted tossing limp posts in direct answer to someone who thinks you're scummy is helping the town more than attacking someone you feel was equally scummy as someone you told to claim or die.

You actually felt nadroj and FC were equally scummy, true?
Then you were so sure that you were prepared to put FC to claim or die L-1
Then, when that didn't work out - what happened? Where did all your suspicion and scumhunting go? You just sit there, until I come along and call you out on it then you push back against me.

I don't see how a townie who is really trying to toss up between two scummy people, and I've been in that gut-churning situation many times before, doesn't press on. It's possible, and as I have ot keep telling myself when I play this game, people are different to me, but I just find it hard to swallow.

And if you don't want to vote, why aren't you saying anything? You promised re-reads and cases which you haven't delivered. Not voting due to not rushing is one thing, but you actually aren't doing much of anything.
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Post Post #542 (isolation #21) » Mon Jul 13, 2009 5:43 pm

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My first point wasn't accusing you of OMGUS (althought I wouldn't discount it) it was saying that if you case ignores all of my attempts to scumhunt and get the town active and voting and rests on the fact that I breifly switched to your player(nadroj) when the FC wagon died then meh.

OK, so you quote the post where I say that FC, Nadroj and Wiirdo are the band of three players unuseful to the town. You also quote the part where I say that Wiirdo and Naroj are roughly equally scummy. You fail to quote the part in my post above where I mention that I iddn't vote for Wiirdo because he was about to be replaced and there was a lack of pressure on him, but you can go check it.

So in that situation, where you know who I think are scummy, and the wagon on my top suspect dies - where do you suppose I would plant my vote?
Makes a case against Dank, then votes Nadroj out of convenience, because he's "the play of the day." Plans to go look for a reason later. Said reason is never divulged in the thread.

Dank has called you on this a couple of times. I called you on it earlier today. And you still haven't presented your actual reasons -- if any -- for voting nadroj.
Yep you got me - unless perhaps there was a reason why I didn't go and hunt for scumminess from nadroj and dank, like maybe the wagon against my obvious number one suspect who I've been pushing all game gets resurrected... The obvious reason why I didn't do that was so that I could continue to push the FC wagon which is my number 1 priority.

So your case seems to be despite all my work in trying to push the FC wagon and in trying to get the town motivated in scumhunting, I'm scummy because I left a dying wagon and put my vote on my previously stated 2nd-ranked suspect.

As for hypocracy - that's ridiculous. Look at my posts vs dank's since I've replaced. Try to look at who you think has done more work in scumhunting. You continue to ignore the obvious differences in the vote switching between myself and himself. In fact, lets have a look at these reaosns, only one of which you quote:
Dank uses other people's reasons to switch between FC and nadroj. SC doesn't, he actually posts long posts detailing his case and reasoning.
Dank switches from VIABLE wagons with votes and momentum. SC doesn't, he only switches when it seems wagons are dead.
Dank has two people he finds equally scummy then unvotes one but prefers to sit there without a vote rather than vote the other. SC switches his vote to the next most scummy and viable target.
So you are right in that I iddn't make a long case on nadroj - although I did say that I thought he was scummy before I switched. However I did make a long case on Far Cry bringing in original reasons, which dank hasn't done in any of his votes of FC, nadroj or back again.
You mention nothing on the viable wagon points
You mention nothing about dank's unvote and general uselessness to the town.

So there are massive differences between us, your point about hypocrasy doesn't make sense.

Also - you still haven't given us your opinion on Far Cry. All you've said is that you are selfishly worried about how you'll look whether you vote him or not - something that shouldn't worry townies, due to my aforementioned point about expendability.
None of what you said describes whether you find him scummy and whether you'd be prepared to vote him. So I continue my charge of stalling.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #22) » Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:12 am

Post by SerialClergyman »

Hey guys, I'm just posting to say I'm not going to be as prolific as I have been, I'm a little limited by my connection. I'll still be around and posting, but possibly not as many wall of texts.

Nikanor - I totally sympathise with your case on Lowell, however it fits his meta perfectly. I'm in a game iwth him now, and if you check his other games I think you'll see what I mean. I'm not saying he's a bad choice for pressuing and lynching, I just think that FC is out of meta a little more and his posts ahve been more actively scummy.

But your case is a good one.

Can we get some more opinions on the game from those not voting FC? Gwyn posted a case on me, Nikanor has posted one on Lowell and dank has had RL issues, but Hero, i think you've been pretty quiet (although I noticed your post war with Mastin in Jungle mafia when doing meta reads.. hahah sucks to be you :D) and Lowell, something a bit more substantive than what you've posted would be aweosme. Also, are you deadset against lynching FC or neutral towards it or what?
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Post Post #553 (isolation #23) » Wed Jul 15, 2009 4:14 am

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Ignore the stuff I wrote about lowell, simulpost.
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Post Post #576 (isolation #24) » Thu Jul 16, 2009 2:48 pm

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Yep, I'm sticking by the FC wagon.

I am constantly and immediately suspicious of the 'let's all jump to a lurker near deadline' play.

Of the people who switched, kiku had one of the more sound reasons to but delayed her vote until a wagon was rolling.

dank's arse must be sore as anything from sitting on that fence for so long :P

I don't get Hero's play at all after the doc claim. As far as I can tell, he went back to nadroj, didn't really participate in the game at all (push a case on nadroj, scumhunt etc) exscept to answer a few questions, demp the momentum on FC and at the last moment switch to a lurker.

qwints has seemed pretty solid to me, as has nikanor.

I have limited access at the moment but I promise I'll get on and post before deadline.
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Post Post #597 (isolation #25) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 5:21 am

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It's 2am - I can check tomorrow before the deadline I think, so no need for drastic vote switch.

Lowell's claim is unusual - don't suppose you've breadcrumbed?

Out of curiosity though, I'm surprised at qwints and kiku for being prepared to lynch another claimed power role when they were very worried about to lynching a doc, the best fakeclaim from a scummy player.

1) Hider confirms town.
2) Hider is confirmable via cop, tracker, possibly watcher, and if anyone he confirms flips scum.
3) Hider has a good chance of death anyway (if he hides with scum, he dies. If he hides with town and town gets targetted he dies.

So - I think that it's pretty unlikely that we've caused 4 players to claim and found a doc, a hider and two masons. That's either pretty much all our power roles found straight up or there's some fakeclaim(s) hidden amongst there.

Anyway, I think the doc is harder to verify, less useful and comes from a more scummy player, so I'm sticking with my vote.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #26) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 12:06 pm

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Assume 3 scum.
N1 Lowell confirms scumbuddy A, B dies
N2 confirms scumbuddy C, D dies.
On D3 we have 2 lynched, 2 NKed and 2 confirmed by Lowell. We aren't even in lylo yet! If at that stage you're desperate to lynch him, go ahead, no worries. If we lynch him there, we then, depending on his flip, get 2 confirmed innocents, which pretty much hands us the game, or he flips scum and we're still not in lylo and can analyse the people he chose to stay with.

All this assumes no cop, no watcher, no tracker, no vig, which would all confirm him if we did it right.

I don't understand 'Also, doc is confirmable through nk'

If they're both power roles, the information role has BUILT IN NK protection from being targeted by scum, so losing the doc REALLY isn't a big deal (and he can't be auto-NKed next night, which a doc can). It's also the only role that will confirm innocents for us.

But I think noone believes they are both power roles, and if that's the case, FC is more scummy. Scummy + less useful role + fakeclaim = lynch imho.
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Post Post #610 (isolation #27) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:58 pm

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OK, well, you all know my preference but I'll hammer Lowell if noone else does. I understand that there's the possibility for a deadline result but I don't like the idea that a few non-hammer votes can swing the lynch. If no-one has switched in an hour or so I'll lynch Lowell.
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Post Post #612 (isolation #28) » Fri Jul 17, 2009 10:07 pm

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OK, didn't need me to hammer. Hope we made the right decision.
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Post Post #627 (isolation #29) » Mon Jul 20, 2009 3:24 pm

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Ok, I was wrong about FC, sorry Hero, your meta read was right. But that was absolutely as good a lynch as we could have had D1 with his posts.

So - the question now is not that the wagon on Lowell saved FC, the question is who was playing it safe. If we had a choice between two townies, the specific townie to die wouldn't matter, the process of getting him lynched in a quiet and unsuspicious way would have.

Thus my suspicion is people who held firm to one camp or another are unlikely to be scum.

Nikanor - votes Lowell out of the blue and stays there.
iamusername - votes FC after the claim and stays there.

Those who switched:

SerialClergyman - Better mention myself before Gwyn does. I switched to Gwyn/nadroj for a post or so when I thought momentum had died. I've talked about it already. I never switched to the Lowell wagon although I did say I'd hammer before deadline.

kiku - unvotes after the claim, argues pretty heavily against lynching the doc then votes for FC in 501 then unvotes again in 523 when a replacement is announced. Then votes Lowell in 568 as the 4th on the wagon, saying he's a good policy vote.

Gwyn leaves his case on me and votes Lowell near deadline.

qwints was on FC, unvoted after claim, revoted after discussion (was the last on the FC wagon) and then switched to Lowell (started bandwagon)

dank - tosses up between FC and nadroj then eventually decides nadroj. After the claim, he unvotes for almost the entire rest of the day. The only person still alive on neither wagon at 585 was dank. Eventually he votes Lowell at 607, including this line:
There is no way we can confirm Lowell is a hider.
Which is patently untrue, as I said previous to his post, a watcher, tracker, vig or cop could all have done it, not to mention the information gleaned even if he was scum having to 'fakehide'.

So of this analysis, if my theory that scum are less likely to be rigid about their choice and instead are looking for the 'safest' vote, then the scummiest I feel is kiku. Gwyn moved off a wagon that was going nowhere to join the one he thought was scummiest, not much wrong with that. qwints did have a little to and fro, and ended the day saying he'd be prepared to vote either, os that's a little scummy. Kiku had a vote on both wagons at different times, and was against voting claimed roles then for it then against one and not the other (to my mind, hider is a much more useful role, so why she'd pick that is suspicious too.) And finally Dank with not too much switching after the claim because he was essentially unvoted until the last second where he picked the wagon with momentum. To be fair, it was also the wagon that wasn't the claimed doc, but as I said, it WAS the claimed hider - something more useful and more confirmable than doc.

And so my suspicion is resting on kiku and dank at the moment.
kiku wrote:Had they claimed "Lover" we could have lynched one of them to see.
Yes, sorry, what?? It's my impression that when one lover dies the other commits suicide? So what exactly is the point of lynching one of them to see - that would have been WORSE than lynching a claimed mason, given the now confirmed survivor of the pair immediately dies, as opposed to draws a night kill.

dank, could you run us through your thought process at the end of yesterday? Did you feel a hider was less useful than a doc? What did you mean when you said it was unconfirmable?

kiku, could you explain the lovers comment? Could you also let us know whether you find a doc, a hider or a mason more useful?

vote dank
for posterity, but could be easily changed at the moment.
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Post Post #628 (isolation #30) » Mon Jul 20, 2009 3:25 pm

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Sorry about any double ups between that post and the ones above it, it took me ages to write because I went through the votes for each person so obviously people posted in the meantime.
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Post Post #630 (isolation #31) » Mon Jul 20, 2009 3:44 pm

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I disagree with both of dank's last two points.

1. hider >>> doc

2. More ways to ocnfirm hider than doc.
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Post Post #643 (isolation #32) » Tue Jul 21, 2009 5:59 pm

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kiku - do you mind answering this?
kiku, could you explain the lovers comment? Could you also let us know whether you find a doc, a hider or a mason more useful?
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Post Post #654 (isolation #33) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 2:22 pm

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The only thing stopping me voting for kiku is that in the last game I played with her she was scum and she played quite differently.. She was much more reserved and only made the odd insightful comment. She is so aggressive here it's really a marked difference.

Having said that, she lost the last game, so could well be trying to switch it up, but I'm continuing my hypothesis that she's town.

dank, on the other hand, blames unfamiliarity with the hider role, but a) it's not that hard ot think through, especially when you have iamusername and myself discussing in thread the benefits of one role over another at the end of D1. b) you've had all of the night ot think about it yet at the start of D2 you were still indicating that was your position and c) You've fallen straight on a Tenchi wagon that appeared out of nowhere.

I think people looking at the Tenchi wagon could be doing so because they are worried about how they will look when we analyse the last day. There should be enough information there to strike scum, I think, and that does mean kiku and dank, in my opinion. I'm sticking with my vote for now.
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Post Post #656 (isolation #34) » Wed Jul 22, 2009 8:14 pm

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Godammit kiku that post was frustrating. It's not like you can sit back blithley and ignore your role in our predicament. You went out and attacked the power roles, forcing some to claim and one to be lynched. Now there's no use crying about spilt milk, and you certainly weren't alone, but you also can't sit there and call out everyone else for being rubbish when you were one of the biggest culprits.

 

Regardless of that point, though, your argument is all over the place. Just a couple of posts ago you were saying you were confused as all hell, but now you’re asking why everyone else is so sure that Tenchi isn’t scum? I think there’s very few people who are sure of anything – the issue is how the wagon came about and who is on it. Tenchi hasn’t done much overly suspicious apart from lurking, and given he’s provided reasons for that I don’t think it’s anything worse than a null-tell. Then it just so happens that the two people most suspicious from the bandwagons yesterday in my eyes both jump onto a case against Tenchi?

 

Given the drama of the end of yesterday, the competing wagons on different townie power roles and the possibility that attention was being turned away from nadroj/gwyn, why on earth would you use really weak tells like lurking to make a decision on day 2? It doesn’t add up.

 

And finally, what do you mean fear mongering? Quote please. My suspicions on you and dank are based on my post 627, actual analysis of concrete events that happened yesterday. You should perhaps try it when making a case, rather than hoping ‘he’s lurking’ will get you over the line.
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Post Post #664 (isolation #35) » Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:38 am

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You really like to refer to the case on Tenchi as "lurking". Did you forget the little content he has produced?
*facepalm* Aside from that point, the others you brought up were to me not particularly persuasive. I think your opinion about the mason claim has been far worse than Tenchi's, and I don't see how his posts 20 and 21 look like a claim, and even if they did to you, I odn't see how that makes him scummy.
Even if the case on Tenchi was only "lurking", how does it benefit town for you to defend him?
I was specifically responding to a question YOU ASKED. In the post directly above mine. You wrote:
For those not voting Tenchi: Why are you so confident that he is not scum?
You case is unimpressive, so I told you. Nice clutching at straws.

Speaking of clutching at straws -
kiku wrote:
SC wrote:
Then it just so happens that the two people most suspicious from the bandwagons yesterday in my eyes both jump onto a case against Tenchi?

Get your eyes checked. You yourself are supposedly suspicious of Gwyn.
This not only doesn't address the point I was making, it's not even true.
SC in 627 wrote:And so my suspicion is resting on kiku and dank at the moment.
I said that before any bandwagon started.
Basically the fact that if dank and I don't toe the line for you then you will build cases against us.
What? I'm suspicious of you two because of your manuevering yesterday between the two power roles. Dank for his sitting on the fence and you for going from we can't lynch the doc to we should lynch the doc to we can't lynch him but we should defienitely get a doc claim from any real PRs tomorrow. Where on earth did you pull fear mongering from?

And to top it all off - you were the one who tried to pull a 'why are you defending him' charge after asking for reasons why he isn't being voted. Now that's pushing a fear agenda.

All this causes me to happily switch my vote from the suspiciously passive dank to the ultra-suspiciously overactive kiku.

unvote dank, vote: kiku
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Post Post #666 (isolation #36) » Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:41 am

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Ok, simulpost city.

iamusername - here's the link:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11154

kiku, you're totally right about qwints.. I thought that dank was on Tenchi's wagon, not qwints, I'm totally wrong. Sorry about that dank.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #37) » Thu Jul 23, 2009 4:46 am

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Ah, that was it.. he was the one who was accusing Tenchi without voting (epic surprise given how carefree he is with his vote usually :roll:). I have less time for mafia and it's 2 in the morning, os I was going on memory.

semi-withdrawn apology to dank :D
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Post Post #673 (isolation #38) » Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:01 am

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Well, if he was obvious and intentionally softclaiming a role he didn't have, that would be scummy. But I think he had no intention whatsoever of that, you misread it and now he's getting blamed for it.

kiku - what's with the change in disposition? Literally a couple of posts ago you were saying i was most likely scum? I don't mean to pile on the crap if you're town and feeling defeated, so sorry if that's the case, but it's another complete and total shift in your thinking and it looks like a last-ditch appeal to emotion.

If I were you and if you were town, I would first and foremost acknowledge that your death is not the end of the world, and you can still help your team. If you're town, you're about to be confirmed so, so your opinions really matter. Thus I'd do a detailed list of who you think are the scummiest targets and why so that tomorrow we can look at them as an untainted opinion and use them to try to catch the scum. The team is bigger than you.
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Post Post #674 (isolation #39) » Thu Jul 23, 2009 5:01 am

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simulpost etc.
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Post Post #692 (isolation #40) » Sat Jul 25, 2009 3:13 pm

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If I get the chance I will expand on this. In fact, I could give you an iso read on everyone with analysis because the above paragraph is just off the top of my head. I am fine with being lynched as I am not someone you want in lylo at this point anyways. I will get you a post as soon as possible. Maybe late tonight, early tomorrow.
That's the full quote. It's been quite a while and there's been no full analysis, and it's quite possible that's because suspicion moved off of her. It's easy enough to say things like that but until there's follow through action it doesn't mean anything. I'm not willing to move my vote at this stage (although I also am a sucker for appeals to emotion.. no offence kiku :( )

Although Gwyn can't answer for nadroj, nor can we ignore nadroj's actions. However given the flaking and the eventual replacement, I think it's possible his actions were lazy, not scummy.

I agree with dank that Gwyn's 'I will look bad either way' looks scummy, but I did bring it up ages ago. To me it looked like sitting on the fence big time, no matter what his eventual justification.

To me, the lack of scumhunting is the biggest point about Gwyn. He asked some weak questions yestereday and started a case on me, and abandoned it at deadline - that's fine. But what about today? Am I less scummy? Who are your suspects?

iam - does it matter ot you that kiku didn't follow through with her game analysis? Could you be more open about your reason for voting qwints?
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Post Post #707 (isolation #41) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:55 pm

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Hi DTMaster, welcome.

iamusername - do you think they'd be more likely to be on the FC wagon, the Lowell wagon or neither?
What do you make of qwints' Lowell vote, given it was second on a bandwagon that looked a little unlikely to get up at the time?

qwints -
qwints wrote:This post is so far removed from reality that I wonder if we're even playing the same game.
That quote is a massive stretch. Your whole defence had a very indignant flavour to it which is a form of AtE itself. I have no problems doing voting analysis and bandwagon analysis - although there are flaws, it's a good way of framing the game.
Kiku's meltdown was completely out-of-character from her day 1 play. Kiku's hyper-aggressiveness struck me as scummy,
but there is no denying that she found two linked players. It's just bad luck that they happened to be masons.
That's why I didn't buy tenchi's attack on Kiku for rolefishing, but why i voted her when she tried to pre-empt discussion with a hyperbolic AtE.
(my bolding)

This does not sound like someone who finds kiku scummy. I understand when you're talking about her aggressiveness you're talking about your perspective before you voted her but the whole paragraph doesn't ring true. You found her aggressiveness scummy but you never voted her. You say that it's bad luck the two she found were masons, but it'd only be bad luck if she was town! Then she has her appeal and you have an easy moment to step on the wagon. Reading the above, I just don't get the impression you actually think that kiku is scum, and that's suspicious as hell.

@kiku - still waiting :(


Fixed tags. Not sure who you were quoting, et plus I'm lazy!

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Post Post #708 (isolation #42) » Tue Jul 28, 2009 1:55 pm

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nooo fail tags..

I'll never be too lazy to hit the preview button again!

sorry..
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Post Post #757 (isolation #43) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 3:32 pm

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No need to prod, he wrote from his phone so will be brief. I've been reading regularly but trying to hold my tongue about kikus complete lack of following through with what she promised she would, and everyone who let her off the hook despite it. I was expecting big, insightful posts, a reread and a good case made on someone. I reminded her in my last post. But a few people, while decrying her appeal to emotion, essentially unvoted because of it.
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Post Post #759 (isolation #44) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 5:04 pm

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Ok - fair enough. But that only looks at the voting record - I'm talking about the town attitude. A brief summary -

Intense pressure on kiku -> appeal to emotion.
Some people even get on the wagon after said appeal BECAUSE of said appeal.
kiku, amid said appeal, promises to regroup and do some serious scumhunting.
One person unvotes.
Days pass.
I mention I'm still waiting, kiku says there's plenty of time left.
The town move on to other things and the case against kiku is essentially dropped.
More days pass.

So what the hell? Why is everyone giving her a free pass? If she'd come out all gangbusters scumhunting, I'd have probably dropped it long ago but she didn't. She posted hard when she was under threat, had a long series where she resolved to come out fighting and as soon as the spotlight went elsewhere she's popping in for 3-line posts.

Why let her off the hook?
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Post Post #762 (isolation #45) » Sat Aug 01, 2009 7:40 pm

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DTMaster, I'm going to assume that you didn't read earlier than my most recent posts because you haven't just missed the point, you failed to hit the target at all.

My post 627 outlines my two major suspects for today and why. I haven't been at all convinced by their play today either. I'll give you a tl;dr of the argument:
So - the question now is not that the wagon on Lowell saved FC, the question is who was playing it safe. If we had a choice between two townies, the specific townie to die wouldn't matter, the process of getting him lynched in a quiet and unsuspicious way would have.

Thus my suspicion is people who held firm to one camp or another are unlikely to be scum.
kiku - unvotes after the claim, argues pretty heavily against lynching the doc then votes for FC in 501 then unvotes again in 523 when a replacement is announced. Then votes Lowell in 568 as the 4th on the wagon, saying he's a good policy vote.
. Kiku had a vote on both wagons at different times, and was against voting claimed roles then for it then against one and not the other (to my mind, hider is a much more useful role, so why she'd pick that is suspicious too.)
And so my suspicion is resting on kiku and dank at the moment.
So your point that my case is based off some arbitrary 'bizarre' behaviour or off something qwints said is just wrong.

As for my disappointment in kiku - I am specifically referring ot this quote from kiku:
If I get the chance I will expand on this. In fact, I could give you an iso read on everyone with analysis because the above paragraph is just off the top of my head. I am fine with being lynched as I am not someone you want in lylo at this point anyways. I will get you a post as soon as possible. Maybe late tonight, early tomorrow.
That was at the top of page 28. Since then, iamusername unvoted, everyone else moved on and she has NEVER DELIVERED. Her posts up until that point were more common, longer and more forceful. She's gone quiet since the suspicion shifted from her, and it shifted on a promise that she never delivered.

Oh - also this:
Sorry, SC, but I have been busy for a couple of days and am in other games as well. I fully plan on giving you an iso read and analysis asap, however, it seems I have become more of a "deadline" lynch here, so I am in no rush. Not trying to be rude, just realistic. Reading and posting on everyone is going to take some time. I have already claimed and so you have no reason to rush my lynch. Lengthening the day can only help us.
And this:
kikuchiyo wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:
@kiku - still waiting :(

Deadline is more than two weeks away.
So your suggestion that my case is based off of something qwints said is completely untrue. I've made a case against kiku since the start of the day and she's never delivered.

So thanks for your defence of her play today but it completely misses the point, and even if it was on point I hardly consider it impressive. Your main argument is that somewhere in there is some soft scumhunting, which is a) pretty weak as is, b) highly suspicious given her actions previous to her AtE. It seems that you need pressure to make kiku do anything, and that's worrying.

Oh - not to mention kiku has found her way onto the current popular bandwagon against qwints out of the blue as well.

The fact that no-one else seemed to mind has me worried as well. I don't like being grouped with iamusername by kiku, especially when his attack on her softened greatly. See also -
iam wrote:
SerialClergyman wrote:
iam - does it matter ot you that kiku didn't follow through with her game analysis?

I'm hoping that she will follow through with it in the near future. That kind of thing takes a bit of time to put together, I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
So apparantly it mattered to him back on the 26th, maybe not any more.

And finally, DT, we come back to your points about distancing (I don't even know who I'm distancing myself from?) - no idea where you got that because you didn't explain it at all, just chucked it out there.

Jumping on the easy bandwagon? Which bandwagon do you think is the easy one at the moment? If that was the case I'd be on qwints. Not to rule myself out from jumping there at some point, because I generally support it, but if your point is that I'm on the easy wagon then you're definitely mistaken. Plus, it wasn't as easy when I started my suspicions early in the day.
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Post Post #790 (isolation #46) » Tue Aug 04, 2009 11:54 am

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The only thing that has made sense about the claim was qwints' point about a double kill, that would explain the pretty harsh flavour text as well. But in the end, the much more likely option is just that he's either (human) mafia or an SK.

There's no way that we have 3 killing roles with 12 people inc. lovers. We could have been down 5 people after the first day. That coupled with qwints' generally suspicious play and only having 2 kills evident when someone claims an active 3rd killing role has me convinced.

unvote kiku, vote qwints
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Post Post #797 (isolation #47) » Wed Aug 05, 2009 3:58 am

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I'm with kiku on this one.

If you have doubts, fine. If you have pressing questions, also fine.

But delaying for delaying's sake is not pro-town at all, and is a shallow way to try to earn townie points at best and a way to try to kill momentum and redirect pressure at worst.

Give me someone who takes strong stances over someone appeasing any day.
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Post Post #805 (isolation #48) » Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:55 am

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Well, I am voting him, and have been since his obvious fake claim, so I'm unable to just vote/hammer and get things done, I have to talk to you guys to work out why you haven't.

I didn't realise that kiku wasn't voting him - that's a shocker.. how can you say he's scummy as hell and call someone scummy for unvoting when you aren't voting yourself.. arg, brainexplosion.

If we mislynch today and have 2 scum and 1 sk, then tomorrow we could well be in an essentially unwinnable position. If we lynch the SK today, we'll have 6 people of which 2 are scum, which isn't the end of the world.

On top of that, there's no reason to think that there can't be 2 mafia of 2 each, or that qwints isn't mafia himself (it's not like the 'real' SK is going to counterclaim, is it?)

And say we had the best case scenario, and lynched one mafia and the resulting town looks like 6 people with 1 SK and 1 mafia. From that point on, we still have to lynch qwints, which means we'll be left with 1 mafia in a group of 4, lylo again.

My vote stays with the obvscum. I don't think there's much sense in getting too fancy.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #49) » Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:57 am

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Arg simulpost.

To answer DT's question, yes, I found kiku's play scummy. When under pressure, in an emotional post she says she'll provide a full analysis of players. After a number of times when I asked for it after pressure had subsided, I was stalled and then eventually it petered out into a couple of paragraphs and she ended up on the obvious wagon. That is an unconvincing followthrough of the sentiment that saved her, in my opinion.
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Post Post #840 (isolation #50) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:07 am

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OK. Good news is it's not game over. Bad news is we're looking at 2 straight lynches or a loss. DO NOT VOTE UNTIL YOU ARE CERTAIN PLEASE.

I haven't seen one action on behalf of iamusername to suggest his being scum apart from being lax on the kiku issue yesterday. He also wasn't on either lynch (didn't lynch information role + didn't lynch what the scum could regard as either an innocent or a rival faction.) So I'm going to put him in the town category for today. Unfortunately, I don't think I can say the same about any other player.

kiku impressed me with her actions at the end of yesterday. I am still frustrated with her behaviour on D2 and can't believe that everyone let her off so lightly. If we lynch kiku and she flips scum, I'd take iamusername off my town list for his actions towards her yesterday. However, her questions about the SK were pro-town. Had qwints flipped mafia, I'd be totally behind kiku's lynch, however he was an SK so her questions seem genuine to me. I think kiku is a tricky case and I'm not sure if I want to bet my lylo vote on her being scum right now.

dank has been at best useless and at worst scummy as all hell. His one serious case on D2 had some rehashed attacks from D1 and very little insight. He's been on both wagons (only him and Gwyn are alive and were on both). I know he's blamed a lot of his actions on RL stuff and it's hard to judge that, but overall I'm deeply suspicious. I haven't liked his play from before day 1 and I think I'm closest to a dank lynch now.

Gwyn has been relatively unimpressive so far as well. He has also been on both wagons, sharing that honour with dank. His attacks on qwints definitely helped out him but could have come from a scum background. Had an unconvincing case on me on day 1. Has been scattered with his attacks throughout day 2. He has made some good points but I feel like there's a possibility he's pulling at threads rather than really trying to take the fight to the scum. As it stands, I wouldn't been keen on risking my lylo vote on him.

DTMaster's hammer was bizarre, and I'd appreciate an explanation of why he thought it was very important that we wait for Nikanor, and yet when discussion was flowing and real questions were being debated, and Nikanor's questions had been asked without answer yet and there was a real debate about whether to keep a claimed SK alive he decided that was the moment to hammer. That was Nikanor's unanswered question in twilight and I think we're owed an answer. In addition, DTmaster's play has just been sloppy in the past. He's asked me questions that have already been answered, or not reread properly before making an accusation - the sort of things that don't matter to someone not actually genuinely interested in scumhunting. I would suggest that DTMaster is probably second favourite for a lynch today.
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Post Post #843 (isolation #51) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:47 am

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DTMaster, again with the not reading through things properly. Look 3 posts up, the dank issue has already been addressed.

(I'm OK either way. A replacement halo this late could be a real problem given hes one of my top suspects, but not having any input for 2 weeks could be problematic. I'm ok with either.)
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Post Post #847 (isolation #52) » Tue Aug 11, 2009 2:01 pm

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No time to make a case, but use your imagination, I set out most of the reasons I disliked your play yesterday in my post already. To quickly point it out
1) The hammer was weird for someone who had waited so long and we had talked about your waiting as an issue - then to jump on and hammer when there actually WAS some real things being discussed. (your explanation about thinking he'd already hammered therefore you voted is even scummier than I originally thought. Why would you vote someone already lynched if not to look better for being on the wagon? I don't get that.)
2) Your lack of attention to what's going on suggests to me that you feel you don't need to thoroughly read the thread. That further suggests a scum background.

iam - I agree about the massclaim and I think that should come first then we can decide about the nolynch.
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Post Post #851 (isolation #53) » Wed Aug 12, 2009 3:37 pm

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Well people? Massclaim?
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Post Post #856 (isolation #54) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 3:06 am

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I think having a player come back in another player's spot is a good move for convinience - the drawbacks aren't that much greater than if it was a total stranger replacing in. I'm ok with it, and it might help a difficult situation, otherwise the game effectively takes a 2 week hiatus.

DTMaster - what do you think the scum's win condition would read?

iamusername - I think if we have an information role I'm all for the no lynch. If we don't, I tend to not like it in these situations because there's an obvious scum move that would effectively nullify it and then the game just stalls - it's a little cheesy. But if it buys us time for info, I'm 100% behind it.

So where are kiku and gwyn? Will you guys claim? What is the thought on order? We could start with DTMaster and popcorn from there maybe?
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Post Post #858 (isolation #55) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 3:37 am

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Kiku, I'd prefer not to say on the off chance that both our scum aren't able to reach the conclusion I have. Let's just say that I think a no lynch certainly couldn't hurt for us.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #56) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 6:51 pm

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Interesting. Dtmaster - every game I've played on this site has had a scum victory if they reach 50% of the towns population without any rivals. I think your description of the win condition is a little unusual for the site. Have you played a game as scum on mafiascum? Do you have a link?

Ok, so what are we thinking about making the claims? Should we wait until eveyone returns?
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Post Post #866 (isolation #57) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:30 pm

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I was actually thinking that perhaps your answer was a town tell, because it looks to me like just an unusual way to frame the win condition. There's a lot of wifom involved and not enough meta to really back the read though. Interesting nonetheles.

Who do you think is most likely to be scum?
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Post Post #867 (isolation #58) » Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:32 pm

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Also, now that I think about it, wouldn't you only be breaking the rule about not quoting the win condition if that WAS your win condition?
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Post Post #872 (isolation #59) » Fri Aug 14, 2009 4:57 am

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To be honest DTMaster, I was, as I said above, viewing this whole thing as a possible reason for thinking you were
town
. Your confusion over whether there could be 3 scum and subsequent summary of a scum win condition seemed like an outsider's description, not a scum description to me. I felt you probably never got a scum PM, and thus are town now. It's possible you were faking a lack of knowledge about a scum PM, but I thought the line of questioning was worth persuing.

Then you started saying that you couldn't quote your own PM - I know that rule and I never asked you to - in fact, I onlyu ever asked you what you thought a mafia win condition would be, so the only way you could interpret that as me trying to get you to quote your PM is IF YOUR PM WAS A MAFIA PM. If you had a town PM, quoting it wouldn't answer my question.

Then you have this major flip out about me trying to modkill you or catch you in some trap and how everything you answer must be regarded as a null tell and look scummy as anything and you've been lowered slightly in my eyes.

So somehow, in an endeavour that was started to try to clear you, you've ended up looking scummier. I can't see a single part of my questions that could be tricky for town to answer, far less be an attempt to modkill you ><
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Post Post #878 (isolation #60) » Tue Aug 18, 2009 3:52 am

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I'm sorry my activity has been down, I'm finalising the buying of an apartment so I've been incredibly busy. Normal posting to resume shortly.
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Post Post #881 (isolation #61) » Thu Aug 20, 2009 4:09 pm

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No worries, Drake.

iamusername, how's that internet coming?
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Post Post #887 (isolation #62) » Fri Aug 21, 2009 10:44 pm

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I think I see where you're going with this but I'll let you finish it before commenting further.

It's very, very impressive.

Can I ask if you're writing from a foregone conclusion or if you are changing your thoughts as you write? Also, do you have an agenda re: kiku's status at all?
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Post Post #892 (isolation #63) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 6:58 am

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It's three in the morning, so I won't go through and do individual little additions and nags. I've got a few comments but compared to the sheer size and scope of your case they're relatively irrelevent.

I think you've absolutely nailed it. The only possible holes that I can see is issues of confirmation bias and of quantity vs quality.

Confirmation bias is an obvious trap that I'm sure you're aware of - a good example is dank's rehashed case on gwyn after the kiku wagon falls apart. I think that it's explainable as a bit of weak distancing (especially given much of it was recycled from points that were raised in my stoush with gwyn day 1) but using it as a scumtell is a bad idea - it's one of those damned if he does and damned if he doesn't situations.

The other situation it appears is with kiku, which is why I asked if you had a specific agenda (ie, were trying to convince us she was town). This is not necessarily scummy, and you say that you didn't intend to come from this position, but I think you glossed over a lot of kiku's scummy play at the end of day 1 and her lack of input to the game after her AtE in day 2. If it wasn't for the fact that in hindsight I agree that it's almost impossible to imagine scum not wanting to lynch the SK, I think kiku would be much more scummy than she is.

As for quantity vs quality, that issue comes about when you go looking heavily through the thread for scumtells and relationships and so you naturally find more from those who are active. Hence you've almost completely ignored Tenchi and DTMaster. I think there's still some valid points that you've applied to dank (dank's werewolf?? post) that you could have possibly applied to DTMaster (a few questions that had already been answered or obviously contained signs of not reading the thread.)

But I'm only really mentioning those points out of completeness. I think there's no point trying to go through and find scumminess from kiku you may have missed or glossed over because I agree that her position about the SK comes close to clearing her - especially in this scenario where we are in lylo and need to make the best decision with the information available to us.

Of what you write - the scummiest 'events' have been, in rough order:

** Refusal to vote nadroj after unvoting FC. There was plenty of time, there was a lot of reason, and there was NEVER any good answer to the repeated question. This point encompasses his eventual vote for a power role after spending a long time unvoted complaining at those who were voting a power role.

* Gwyn's lack of acknowledgement of dank being on the kiku wagon. I didn't notice this at the time but in hindsight it's just so obvious. It looks to be actually a really clever piece of manipulation.

* dank's post about werewolf? Do we have a werewolf? I agree that within 1 minute to check the front page on a whim and then come back and post an edit is highly unlikely. Looks like a planted error.

*nadroj(gwyn) bandwagoning early was terrible.

* dank's coaching of nadroj early. His attacks seem to include a shopping list of actions nadroj can do to look less scummy and 'unearn' his vote.

Your point about dank questioning the masons is taken, but I'm pausing for a second to add it to the events because iirc scum killed mason on D1, so what do you think was the point of doing all that groundwork trying to make people suspicious of them only to kill one of them in the first day? Had he been trying to set up a mislynch I'd agree, but clearly the scum motivation was to knock them off, so there's no point trying to cause confusion.

Unless they only made the decision to kill mason after they realised they couldn't get a mislynch on them. They were clearly worried about them - they preferred to kill a mason than someone they knew essentially had to be doc. So perhaps the lack of inroads dank made into causing suspicion about the masons prompted the kill? I don't know, will have to think about this point later.

The final point is which one to vote. I wouldn't vote until giving them a chance to respond, of course, but while reading, and seeing many of the points concur to my read of the game and expand upon it in such a concrete way, I started wondering which one to vote but to be honest, I suspect that choice is actually relatively meaningless, the chance that we lynch one and find scum and then switch to someone else the next day seems relatively unlikely to me. But, given it's lylo and we haven't had a massclaim, an extra night may be important, depending on our power roles. So maybe it is worth putting some effort into picking one over the other (also revisiting the massclaim idea).

And now it's 4am. Off to bed.

Well done on a case that's obviously taken a LOT of effort and will hopefully bear fruit.
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Post Post #895 (isolation #64) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 2:22 pm

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No kiku, we can't afford a mislynch. we're at 6 people (unless we get a roleblock or a doc protect or the like).

I'm happy to start at Gwyn or dank, but I think saying we couldn't have been that wrong day 1 is meh. It happens. The main thing about the case is that much of their scumminess relies on their interaction with each other, so essentially it's interchangeable for me. Possibly the best way is to work out who has done the most individually scummy actions, but as I said, we need to be right about both to win, so which one is first is a bit of a false conundrum.

After sleeping on it, I'm not so sure about a massclaim any more. We have got 1 day to find out a bit of information if our lynch today is scum, and if we have a massclaim and there does happen to be an information role left, that'll just be an easy kill for the scum. So perhaps we should just press on in hope?
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Post Post #896 (isolation #65) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 2:36 pm

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Also, now that I think about it, THAT'S the reaction you have to the case, Gwyn? Pages and pages of carefully put together tells and you quote a small part of my post in response and say you don't know what I'm talking about?

What about the whole thing? What about the theory? Where's the indignation, the counter-arguments, the explanations?

There are none because you've been decisively nailed.

The only reason I'm not voting you now is to work out the massclaim issue. Expect my vote soon.
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Post Post #898 (isolation #66) » Sat Aug 22, 2009 6:55 pm

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Wow fail.

Err..

Sorry ><

Obviously I finished the last post and went to bed and didn't realise you'd posted in before I did.

I've got another game at deadline and I'm a little busy so I'll go through your defence in a little while.
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Post Post #907 (isolation #67) » Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:08 pm

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Hard to type on phone so this will be brief.

Gwyn - do you think that you've adequately addressed the case against you with your objections? Do you think dank is scummy?

kiku, I don't think you're voted because it's not bolded, but I'd appreciate it if you held off during discussion anyway, we're in lylo and I do not want to risk getting lynched by a quick group of votes.

I stand by much of what I said in that post. Before we knew qwints was an SK, he could have been mafia and it was very risky to let him live. Having said that, now that we know he was definiteily an SK all along, the mafia would have known that and so it's very unlikely they would have opposed his lynch.

In short - there were both town and scum motivations for wanting the lynch of qwints to go ahead. There were ONLY town motivations for wanting to stop the lynch of qwints (because scum knew he'd flip SK). Hence I am prepared to clear you and iam for now.

But aside from that, why me out of everyone who was for the SK lynch? And what is it about my play that makes you oscillate between town and scum on me?

DTMaster, I don't think a lylo power role claim would stop me from voting someone unless it was extremely convincing/well breadcrumbed. Thus I'm not hugely convinced that it's worth even getting the top suspects to claim first. I'm not against the idea, but I'm not sure what good it will do eithr (although I suppose there's a small chance of counter-claims.) Besides - the issue wasn't the order of the claim, it was if there's a massclaim we'll out any power role, so if we have a cop or a watcher or the like they'll be killed and unable to investigate or watch the likely scumbuddy of whoever we lynch.

Where is dank? Wasn't he supposed to be back a couple of days ago?
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Post Post #909 (isolation #68) » Sun Aug 23, 2009 6:30 pm

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If someone has a result that makes this next choice easier, they must claim, especially if it looks like we're on the wrong track. It's lylo - we simply ahve to lynch correctly today and probably tomorrow.

We've had 2 lynches and it's lylo, and we got an anti-town role in one of the lynches! It's hardly screamingly unfair to have another PR somewhere in the mix.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #69) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:44 am

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Decided to do a small analysis of the wagons in the game to see what I could determine. If you feel I've missed something (I'm sure I'll miss something in the cases section) let me know.

1) I believe the lynch of FC was more likely to be pro-town than the lynch of Lowell. You had to be for lynching a claimed role that scum could easily kill and against a claimed role that would give information each night that you couldn't kill (unless you guessed the hidee correctly.) Scum would of course know that both roles were legit and so had a natural temptation to go for the one that was more dangerous and much harder to knock off otherwise.

Of those alive,

SC, Iam and DTMaster
were on the FC lynch.
dank, Gwyn and kiku
were on the Lowell lynch.

2) I believe that those who were against lynching qwints are much more likely to be town. As I said above, there are town reasons for voting qwints, but the scum knew he was an SK so had every motivation to get him killed and had no motivation to want him alive.

Of those alive,

Iam and kiku
were against lynching qwints.
dank, Gwyn, DTMaster and SC
were for the qwints lynch.

So wagon analysis fits the theory nicely. Possible confirmation bias, but the wagons are there in black and white, and the intepretation of them is pretty sound I think. The second wagon is a stronger tell than the first. Iam happened to be on the town side in both, so he's essentially confirmed to me. Kiku was on the important one, so she's good as confirmed to me. Of the remaining 4, I and Tenchi (DT's former ego) were on FC's wagon. The only people still alive on both anti-town wagons are dank and nadroj.

Going to bed. Hopefully dank will show up sometime soon.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #70) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:41 pm

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Gwyn - I would say that ~70% of the case against dank is his very suspicious interaction with you specifically. Things like his failure to vote you on day 1 after the claim - the only way I can explain that is if he is scum, and more specifically, scum with you. Same with his attacks on you that also included a shopping list of how to get the voteo ff you and look better - the only way that makes sense is if you're both scum together. There's a lot of reason to be suspicious of dank/gwyn, but not much to be suspicious of dank/???

So given you're claiming not to be his partner, why do you think he's scum?
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Post Post #915 (isolation #71) » Mon Aug 24, 2009 6:49 pm

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Ah. Well that explains it somewhat. Probably the not bolding thing works better if you needed three to lynch instead of four.

I can't really address your concerns apart from saying that I'm in the same boat, if you or iam are scum I essentially can't win. But we have a strong theory with strong evidence, so take heart!

I was originally for voting Gwynn but his defence is actually not as bad as I thought it was (while still being wholly inadequate, at least he's trying to pick a few holes). Dank should have been back for a couple of days and hasn't said anything. I'm still waiting on gwyns reply and further discussion but at the moment I think dank has my vote. But as I've been saying, its probably a false dilemma, unless there's some massive new piece of evidence.
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Post Post #919 (isolation #72) » Wed Aug 26, 2009 5:00 am

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Nah, I'd just string him up rather than replace. What's a replacement going to do at this point? They can't answer for him. Same thing happened in my last game.

But no point rushing either - we've given him a couple of weeks, we can give him a day or two more. Plus I do genuinely want Gwyn to answer my last question.
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Post Post #920 (isolation #73) » Wed Aug 26, 2009 5:10 am

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Hmm

Just did a google search of the site to double check if dank was around and it led me to meta highly toxic mafia where he played scum.

Was a good think to skim through - I noticed a few patterns.. he was conscious about not voting until it was very safe, makes a big deal about letting the full discussion of the town go through. He agrees a lot with other players' reasoning and posting.

On the other hand, he was also scum with Lowell, so maybe that is a point in his favour, as Lowell's meta was very similar, so maybe he voted Lowell thinking he was scum.

Or maybe he was worried about Lowell reading him better than other people cos they'd been scum together? I don't know.

Still - I think on the whole there's a lot of parallels.

Check it out.
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Post Post #922 (isolation #74) » Wed Aug 26, 2009 3:22 pm

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Here's why you don't believe what you're saying about dank.

1) You don't offer a different scum partner (since you discredit your kiku read after she becomes essentially confirmed town). If you think he's scum, you need to have a theory about his scumpartner as well, because we're in lylo and it's not good enough to just go with someone who you think is vaguely scummy. You aren't trying to suss out scum at all, just distance yourself from dank.

2) You should be well aware that I didn't mean 70% of the QUOTES iam used were about dank + you, I meant that 70% of the CASE is constructed that way. 25% is rubbish - his interactions with you are his scummiest behaviour in my opinion. If you know that his refusal to vote you after unvoting FC wasn't motivated by protecting a scumbuddy, you can't think it was as suspicious as I do. Therefore if you're town, you're resting your whole theory on something like his werewolf slip, which seems pretty weak to risk your lylo case on.

3) You have the time to point out the irony of kiku and my exchange if we were both scum, but you don't have time to do some scumhunting, or make more valid points?

I am officially ready to get this done. It's been 3 days since dank said he'd be back and we've already waited for weeks. I'm as convinced as I'm going to be that the scumteam is dank/gwyn.

vote dank
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Post Post #936 (isolation #75) » Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:10 pm

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My thoughts -

It was a bit of a disappointing end with dank not around to defend himself, but I don't think him being here would have changed too much. Your case against dank and gwyn was truly excellent iam, it was really, really impressive. It was horrible luck that you just focused on a few things that turned it slightly in the wrong direction.

My initial post wasn't about lynching FC, it was about saving nadroj. We only had 2 in the scumgroup so I figured if I bussed or let him die I wouldn't be able to win with a SK or another mafia group around and still so many townies alive. So I put all my eggs in one basket and tried to save him, which just happened to work out nicely. Iam caught me out using pretty bad logic to accuse the masons as well, so I just tried to be as stubborn as possible and focus on convincing everyone that I was intent on an FC lynch no matter what.

Gwyn replacing in was great. He attacked me right away and didn't hammer FC, which I wasn't happy about at the time, but in retrospect it was a good move. I felt like he left me hanging a bit after I did all this work to get FC to L-1, but his attack meant we were almost never seen as a pair and reduced the suspicion that would have happened the next day about me saving nadroj.

The Lowell wagon was a lucky counter.. I did desperately want him lynched and I thought about switching but I thought it was too important to keep my image uptight, and if worst came to the worst killing the doc would be alright, and Lowell could have killed himself by hiding with us or the other anti-town role(s).

My post at 627 was my attempt to solve the problem laid out by (I think) qwints - if both wagons were town, perhaps the town should look at those derailing the nadroj wagon. The whole reasoning was to try to redefine the town's direction away from that line of enquiry to a different one (who jumped around more) because that fit in with my work casting doubt on dank D1 and led away from me and Gwyn.

I thought I could stay on kiku for a long time without attracting too much suspicion after the AtE. DTMaster called me on it but luckily I had enough quotes to show I was at least slightly prodding her to answer the question. And I tossed a couple of points at qwints in case I needed to get onto his wagon. I thought my comment about supporting the wagon but not getting on it right away would be a bit of a 'too scummy to be scummy' moment - a charge of 'you were leaving yourself room to join the wagon' would be a bit too obvious to say.

Then once qwints was identified as the SK he needed to be killed, and it was worth forcing the issue a bit. Both Gwyn and I argued for the lynch pretty strongly as well as contributing our votes. (If qwints wasn't killed, gwyn or I could easily have been a lynch and/or NK, so it was very important.) Kiku picked up on it in the last day, but I think my defence to you kiku was pretty sound - there was a good reason for the town to lynch qwints - I guess the only clue was working out how strongly people were arguing for it, not just contributing their vote etc. I actually thought the NK immune function was a lie, so lucky for us that he did get lynched.

Then the last day was dominated by iam's fantastic but misdirected case and a few little things to smooth over. I was mindful of pushing too hard for dank over gwyn but on the other hand I was a little nervous that if gwyn copped it people would go back and check on who saved him day 1, so I was definitely looking to try to get dank to be the lynch. And so it goes.

It was a really enjoyable game actually, my first as scum, so now people can finally meta me :P Well done Gwyn, you played very well.

Bad luck to town who had some really good moments but on just a few key events took slightly the wrong angle and it led to the wrong lynch.

And thanks Drake for a good game, fun setup and great flavour!
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Post Post #937 (isolation #76) » Sat Aug 29, 2009 5:42 pm

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Sorry guys, no quicktopic, we just PMed each other.

Our main points of discussion were:

a) noting that iam scared the crap out of me with a few searching posts on day 1 that pinpointed the bad parts of my case perfectly,
b) thinking we should start killing the masons rather than search for more power roles or kill iam or seach for the SK because the more those confirmed roles built up the more we'd be in trouble. (Lucky for us they were lovers)
c) Tossing up between iam and nikanor for the kill on the second night. We thought they were both obviously town but thought we might be able to cast suspicion on DTMaster a bit more with Nikanor's death, and it just worked out with who suspected who, I think.
d) Me preparing Gwyn for my telling the town to nolynch to appear townie. Unfortunately, iam got in first. As a side note, what I was referring to kiku was the scum can always not kill anyone. So town doesn't lynch, scum doesn't kill and it's a bit of a lame stalemate. The only way that isn't true is if there's a cop or something, because then the cop can spend each night investigating and have a complete picture on who is scum or not.

I think that's about it for our night conversations, we didn't talk very much.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #77) » Mon Aug 31, 2009 5:26 pm

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Kiki - I literally just completed beard mafia with don when I also lynched a player who wasn't there in lylo, but that time I was town and he was scum. So I had that meta up my sleeve if things went pear shaped.

I think you played well, just lost it a bit in day two. Mind you, you didn't get lynched and ended up obvtown so that counts for a lot. I don't think you let anyone down at all and I hope you didn't take anything I said as scum personally.
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Post Post #948 (isolation #78) » Tue Sep 01, 2009 12:43 pm

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Well, the situation you were in wasn't ideal with the loss of 4 townies and all of your power roles the night before, so it was always going to be hard for the town.

Even so, if you consider you had at least 1 obvtown and possibly 2 if you count yourself, kiku, then the endgame was 1/2 x 1/3 = 1/6 chance of winning.

Qwints would win unless he was lynched, due to NK immune. Thus he had to be lynched at some point.

I suppose keeping him around for one extra night would be ideal. That means you wouldn't get stuck with an even number. although I guess you do need to hit scum with either the lynch or qwints' NK to have a chance.

It was a hard situation to be in.

As for claiming SK, Albert Rampage claimed SK as scum at one point, it was fantastic. He lived for 3 days beyond what he should have lived for because he knew the real SK couldn't counter-claim. Classic.
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Post Post #949 (isolation #79) » Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:00 am

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Drake, did you have any thoughts on the game from a mod's perspective?
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