Mini 703 - A Roccisi Autumn - Over

[Kison]

Hiya.

Couple of things...

Rage, would you mind explaining in a bit more detail why you were so sure of your meta on darkdude that you were willing to assume with seemingly meager evidence that he was crumbing having received the amnesiac cop result? Also, why, if you believed this to be the case, did you decide to broadcast this to everyone? I don't recall him being in immediate lynch danger at that point(though granted he had a few people pushing for him). Basically, if I am to assume you truly thought he was trying to lure someone into a trap, I do not see why you felt obligated to announce it. And not because I think you'd be foiling the trap(because no-one obviously 'fell for it'), but rather because if you genuinely believed he had it, I would expect you to keep quiet about it unless you were reinforcing him after he later were to come forth and announce the result. Bringing it to everyone's attention would just make him a target if you happened to be right.

1)do you believe the case on you/BoW is valid?

I recognize that BOW made posts that contain many tells that can be counted as scummy. I believe that BOW was probably a VI, and those tells from his posts should probably be discarded as not being likely to correlate with alignment.

2)do you think you should full claim since Bow kinda soft claimed?

I had no idea he softclaimed. I do not think it is a good idea for me to claim at this point. Do you want me to claim?

3)who do you think is scummiest on your wagon and why?

I do not know who the scummiest person is. I haven't read the game deeply yet, and I haven't even started a full analysis of it. It will probably take me until about Thursday of next week to post any conclusions that I can be really confident of.

ok fair enough. I think you have satisfied my suspicion enough for now. However please note I will be watching your posts closely
but i feel ih 's lurking is a bigger problem, so i'll

unvote

vote ih

This post also looks off to me(and no, not because the vote is moved to me). What about Adel's response satisfied your suspicion? The only chunk of it that I presume might have been what you're talking about is the village idiot part, which was something that had been discussed a few times before Adel even joined the game.

I'm noting the role formerly filled by Tarballs had needs more content.

Brain of Wombat's grand debut into the game is not really alarming. Thinking that relying on investigative roles to ride the way through the game is a mindset I can easily see adopted by a newbie who is unfamiliar with how the game is played. I'm not even really that worried about him doing it again the second day. As either alignment I don't see his motive in doing something blatant like that to draw ridicule if he knows it will happen.

More to come in due time. And because there's no content from either of my predecessors I anticipate and welcome hard interrogation. Get to it!

[Kison]

I see better visually.



In the context of numbers alone, I don't think it means a whole lot. It really depends on why they mentioned each other. Obvious raw conclusion is that Tubby and ThAdmiral don't like mentioning each other.

[Kison]

Also, hi, Kison and afatchic!

Hiya

Ectomancer: Is this the post you're talking about where Rage tried to cut off discussion? It's probably the closest thing I could find that compares to what darkdude did:

So we could have two 1 shot guns out there, or scum got blocked and the n0 one got used.

Methinks speculation about who or what did the night-kill is futile right now, seeing as how we have an unaccounted scum night-kill, which could either be explained by a scum player receiving the Gun from MacavityLock and thus choosing not to night kill or a roleblock/doctor protection.

If that's not it then I'm not sure what is. I'm more interested in Rage's response to his weird defense of darkdude, though. Particularly why he felt compelled to draw to everyone's attention that darkdude was 'hinting' at having the amnesiac result.

[Kison]

I can understand why people are suspicious of me for not divulging much information late yesterday, but to assume that darkdude and I had planned something all along is stupid. There may be things that someone may think mean a certain thing, but they're only going to be found if that's precisely what you're looking for.

It's not my belief that you two had to have preplanned the entirety of a role claim for what I pointed out to be a valid indication that you're scum. I can think of several other possibilities, one being that darkdude

hadn't

intentionally crumbed, and that the intention of what he posted was just as he claimed it was, but that you panicked and saw an opportunity to bail him out before it got out of hand. Of course, that's complete speculation, but the point I am trying to convey is that there are far more possibilities than the one you're trying to dismiss as absurd.

I noticed that he had the most active members of the game on him, and although I'd really like to think that the more inactive players of any game would make good, thoughtful contributions to the game when they find the time to post, that isn't the case more often than not.

I figured since the case was starting to build up that it wouldn't be long until it would be too late to input any one thing that could influence how strong exactly the case was, so in my long posts I focused on, as Ectomancer puts it, one half of what the case was about.

He had two votes on him at the time compared to Brain of Wombat's three votes. That aside, though, my main point is that if you believed darkdude had the result, I can't fathom why you felt compelled to take the obligation of claiming it

for

him. I think that action is more likely to come from scum trying to find a reason to defend their buddy. The action I'd have expected from you would have been for you to use that meta as a reinforcement should darkdude have ever come forward with the result.

Scum decides or is unable to kill the guy who hints at his role and has outed one of their members, and decides to get him lynched tomorrow. Why has this only come up suddenly then? Surely something must have been noticed or at least hinted at by the creators of this case when it was actually going on?

I can't speak for others, but your defense of darkdude was what stood out most for me as I read the game.

Vote: Darkdude

[Kison]

I are noob.

Vote: Rage

[Kison]

i think it morelikely he is town, but then agian i thought dd was just a confused townie, till his claim

What do you think darkdude was confused about, exactly?

quite frankly i was away for training with my job and diddn't really have time to follow all of the games i am currenly in, xyl's relative chaos was near completeion and i figured it was the more important to post and or play in that game than this one, plus you had the day well with in your grasp and also figured you needed no assistance from me.

I can't help but notice the glaring inconsistency in this paragraph. On one hand, you are using the excuse of being too busy to follow your games, but you still indicate you were able to read enough of the game to know that everyone 'had the day well with in your grasp.' So which one is it?

plus i seriously feel if you are scum adel the town is lost cause even thought you are hackin me to peices and really making me think if i trully need to play here anymore since i am clearly out of my league , so i will consider this my one and only defense post and so that we can move on i fell the need to go ahead and claim, i know there is no real vote pressure but i am a townie plain and simple,, if you have read my meta you will note when i have a role i am far more active and care a lil more about the game and try to have a bigger input.

Oh zeus...

Before the day ends I'd really like the stragglers to give a clear cut rundown on what they think.

[Kison]

I noticed two things:

• 1. we do not have any games on this site to compare when he has a ole to when he does not...
  2. in the post game of Xyl's Relative Chaos is the post:
  

  @ vi
  did you see improvement from the last game i was in with you to this one??

  Ehehe. Yes, yes I did.
  You tripped on yourself at first, but once tubgate was sorted out and everyone called you newbTown, you faded into the background. That was good in itself, and you didn't disturb the advantage of people completely overlooking you throughout. And that's how you win as scum; gj.
  
  Granted, improvement may be hard to measure since the last time you were scum, you had a Doc claim weighing you down so nobody was going to ignore you completely. But still.
  
  What you need now is confidence so you can go on the offense. And/or to be scum more often~

  source: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=890
  
  Vi is a good player who has now played two games with tubby-scum.
  
  Thoughts?

He seems equally lurky in his three abandoned games, while he is far more active in Xyl's Relative Chaos - more comparable to his activity in this game. Maybe it's the longer duration deceiving my eyes, though.

1) Rage: Things just aren't looking up for you. People have built up cases against you and I am balancing between your defenses and their attacks.

That's awfully vague. What do you think of both the attacks and his defense?

[Kison]

This helpful?

Xyl's Relative Chaos

- Scum
8.0% of total activity (71/893)
Total words posted: 2602. Average per post: 36.65

Newbie 644

- Scum
3.5% of total activity (18/512)
Total words posted: 1024. Average per post: 56.89

Mini 669

- Town
2.4% of total activity (20/832)
Total words posted: 844. Average per post: 42.20

Newbie 675

- Town
2.2% of total activity (9/410)
Total words posted: 421. Average per post: 46.78

This Game

6.2% of total activity (35/568)
Total words posted: 1684. Average per post: 48.11


II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (232-0)/(12)=19.33
    2. (7)/(19.33)=0.362

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (492-232)/(10)=26
    2. (32-7)/(26)=0.962

[Kison]

Think I spotted an error in your numbers.

2. (36-33)/(3.50)=

.875

Should be 4 posts. 36-33 = 3, but he had 33,34,35,& 36 for D2. I'm guessing you put 33 for day one to compensate for post #0, but mistook 33 for the end of day one post.

For the Mini 703 information it looks like you didn't include the moderator in your math.... I think it should be:

I was actually thinking of the best way to handle this. I didn't notice you added the moderator as a player. What do you think about removing the moderator from the equation entirely? Doing that, I get these figures:

Xyl's Relative Chaos

D1: 570 posts
D2: 39 posts
D3: 56 posts
D4: 41 posts
D5: 98 posts

This Game

D1: 216 posts
D2: 237 posts

Which gives the following:

I. Xyl's Relative Chaos, mafia power role

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (570)/(15)= 38.0
    2. (33-0)/(38.0)=
    0.868
    
    3. Note that tubby was attacked for rolefishing around Nov. 1, and said in the post game that he managed to escape a certain lynch.

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (39)/(13)= 3.0
    2. (36-32)/(3.0)=
    1.33

• C. Day 3
  • 1. (56)/(9)= 6.22
    2. (43-36)/(6.22)=
    1.125

• D. Day 4
  • 1. (41)/(5)= 8.20
    2. (48-43)/(8.20)=
    .610

• D. Day 5
  • 1. (98)/(5)= 19.6
    2. (66-48)/(19.6)=
    .918

II. Mini 703 - Alignment Unknown

• A. Day 1
  • 1. (216)/(12)=18
    2. (7)/(18)=
    0.389

• B. Day 2
  • 1. (237)/(10)=23.7
    2. (32-7)/(23.7)=
    1.055

Anyways, I did this:

Xyl's Relative Chaos - tubby216

D1: 1612 words, 32 posts, 50.375 WPPost
D2: 116 words, 4 posts, 29.000 WPPost
D3: 113 words, 7 posts, 16.143 WPPost
D4: 23 words, 5 posts, 4.6000 WPPost
D5: 618 words, 18 posts, 34.333 WPPost

Xyl's Relative Chaos - Overall

D1: 26,873 words, 570 posts, 47.15 WPPost, 15 players, 1791.53 WPPlayer
D2: 996 words, 39 posts, 25.54 WPPost, 13 players, 76.62 WPPlayer
D3: 2,146 words 56 posts, 38.32 WPPost, 9 players, 238.44 WPPlayer
D4: 1,140 words 41 posts, 27.81 WPPost, 5 players, 228.00 WPPlayer
D5: 4,454 words 98 posts, 45.45 WPPost, 5 players, 890.80 WPPlayer

I skipped the moderator in all of this. I know there has to be a better way of presenting this but my head is

throbbing

now. If I vanish it's because I overdosed on ibuprofin.

[Kison]

This Game - tubby216

D1: 222 words, 7 posts, 31.71 WPPost
D2: 1073 words, 25 posts, 42.92 WPPost

[Kison]

no clue ecto but it seems to make them happy,,
and why is it so important to just analyse me this way, or am i the only true unknown player in the game at this point. and does this lead you to my alignment in anyway?

Yo tubs. I think I asked you a question or two last page. Have responses ready, yet?

[Kison]

I really would like to hear the interpretations of Adel and Kison, though, of their own calculations.

Well, as Adel suggested earlier, this was mainly to compare Tubby's activity level in this game relative to other games because of how he claimed that being vanilla caused him to drop his activity level. Since he claimed vanilla, this provides a means of seeing if what he claims about his own meta matches what is actually going on in this game. I'd say it doesn't match. He seems to be getting more active as time goes on, not less.

i think the whole puta thing then he gott himself in deep and couldn't back so i felt like he was in quicksand moment where nothing he did was right

Fair enough. What makes you believe that darkdude was legitimately confused as a town, instead of scum?

[Kison]

i never thought the case on dd was valid till he claimed

Then why did you say this?

ok so that a good case on darkdude,,

so my question is ecto why should BoW get a pass today ???

[Kison]

What is the difference between a 'good' case and a 'valid' case?

Also, you

did

say it was a valid case later on:

so now we have thre cases in the works,

rage's case on BoW

~ wich i happen to agree with

ecto's case on darkduse

~ seems like a valid one i just think BoW is scummier atm

kort's case on chuckrock

~ wich is gaining ground (ie becoming more solid with more faults in chuckrocks posts)

is that the jist of it or do i need to re-read some more??

[Kison]

Unvote

Vote: tubby216

Thou art made of sketch.

Also, you didn't answer those questions you missed.

I still want to hear from Rage, and very possibly may move this right back.

Which wagons were offered as alternatives to the darkdude wagon on day 2?

Who advocated those wagons?

I was working on a nice pretty list but unfortunately I must leave now. Someone wanna finish it?

IH/Kison & Brain of Wombat/Adel were the two main alternatives.

IH wagon advocates: Adel, darkdude, tubby216
darkdude wagon advocates: Korts, Ectomancer, tubby216, Adel
Brain of Wombat wagon advocates: tubby216, Rage, chuckrock

That is what I have so far.

[Kison]

Kison, because of the way you've managed to follow Adel's cases today on both myself and now Tubby.

Do you believe either of the two votes I have cast thus far have been unwarranted? The only part of the case against you I _really_ find to be excessively scummy is your defense of darkdude, which is something I had followed up on my own upon entering the game. And do please try to justify tubby216's complete 180 on darkdude and followup lie.

the re-read on rage i haven't made up my mind fully yet but for now i am content to believe his claim.

Does that mean you believe he's town, or simply that he's telling the truth about his role?

[Kison]

And me with darkdude? Apart from me not being scum in the first place, why would I have voted for dd if I was aligned with him? Please explain before you start to sling "what-ifs".

You voted for Rage earlier. Why would Rage have contradicted darkdude's claim and voted for him if he was aligned with him? Is it your belief that you 'cannot' be scum with darkdude simply because you voted for him?

[Kison]

I think I'm going to

vote: kison

Joined the rage wagon late for reasons that had already been brought up,

Did you notice I was the second person to begin questioning Rage, and would have been first had I finished writing my post 25 minutes earlier? (I had actually begun writing before Adel posted, but it was my first post in the game so I had to get everything together)

and then continued to follow adel by voting tubby for a reason that was not even explained completely (just the cryptic "thou art made of sketch").

...Except it should be obvious to anyone paying attention that I voted for him because of how he responded to the questions I asked him. I also explained which part of his responses I disliked most in post 651.

[Kison]

All I know is that I am positive that one of the people "prodding" me to answer questions and clarify are most likely scum. That means Adel, Rage, and Korts mainly should be kept in mind as possible scum IMO.

You can add me to that list, because I fail to see why you can't respond, at least, to the two Korts quoted. Much less do I see how the prodding is scummy, as you suggest.

[Kison]

Actually, yes.

[Kison]

Ectomancer: You say you rate an insanepenguin lynch higher than Tubby216. What about Rage, who you seemed adamant about not long ago?

IP dismissed out of hand that thought that he could be scum that hammered his scum buddy. Why? Never heard of bussing?

...Speaking of which, insanepenguin, you've still yet to answer my question about this. Why did you vote for Rage, who sealed darkdude's fate, if you also were under the belief that voting darkdude was a means of clearing someone?

Also, it appears Puta Puta might not have been as batshit crazy as we all thought:

Ecto, what is your opinion of ThAdmiral?

ThAdmiral, what is your opinion of Ecto?

gorckat, what is your opinion of me and Ecto?

One is a lie,
Another a cover,

And in only one is the truth not farther.

To find this one you must be sharp,
If you want it, you must decipher.

[Kison]

I am referring to this, in case you don't recall:

And me with darkdude? Apart from me not being scum in the first place, why would I have voted for dd if I was aligned with him? Please explain before you start to sling "what-ifs".

You voted for Rage earlier. Why would Rage have contradicted darkdude's claim and voted for him if he was aligned with him? Is it your belief that you 'cannot' be scum with darkdude simply because you voted for him?

[Kison]

Rage - believe his claim, so town.

Again, I'll ask this: do you believe that he is a

tracker

? The reason I ask this is because the front page clearly indicates that the tracker can be a scum role. So if you merely believe the claim, I must ask why you believe he is town as a result of it.

[Kison]

Okay, let's try this again.

I had posted earlier today that I think that ThAdmiral would be more of an optimal lynch candidate than Ectomancer because the probability of Ectomancer being scum is significantly less than ThAdmiral, because Ectomancer being scum relies upon ThAdmiral also being scum. ThAdmiral being scum also does not guarantee that Ectomancer is scum.

Also, we do benefit from both outcomes of a ThAdmiral lynch. If ThAdmiral is scum, we at least know he is telling the truth about his investigation. If he is scum, we benefit obviously from lynching correctly.

ThAdmiral, could you please answer Korts' question? Your response to my question evaded what I felt was the obvious aim of what I had asked.

[Kison]

I don't see why a case is required... I'm saying that

between the two of you

, ThAdmiral would be optimal because there is more to gain from it. This is mainly in response to Rage's post at the top of this page.

[Kison]

Ok, since you responded to Rage's response to Adel's question, I think you should answer Adel's sliding scale question.

Sure.

I would say that ThAdmiral is 0 confirmed.

Nothing

about the investigation gives any indication about his alignment unless you are lynched, and even then nothing can go towards his favor. He merely received an investigation, something both scum and town can do just as easily as the other.

You are probably 7-8 on my confirmed scale, because ThAdmiral's result

does

say something about your alignment. In order for you to be scum, you must be partnered with ThAdmiral. The only exception to this that I can fathom is that you are investigation immune scum.

Also, if you don't mind, who are your top 2 scum suspects?

Rage and Tubby216. Rage because of his defense of Darkdude, which I highlight in my early posts. Tubby216, primarily, because of how he contradicted himself earlier by claiming that he never found the darkdude case to be valid despite having actually said that early on day two.

[Kison]

since this is a semi-open with all roles and abilities listed, investigation-immune scum is not something we need to worry about.

It isn't listed

.

Huh??

These roles are always mafia aligned:

You are a

Godfather

.

This means that you will always look innocent to cop investigations.

You are a

Goon

. You have no special powers.

???!?!!!!!?!?!?

[Kison]

Tubmeister, what happened to this :

sorry catching up, i appologize for my absence sick kids,

thing is owe, case on IP and case on Korts _ probably post by tonite

[Kison]

vote: insanepenguin02

the way you vote without reasoning is quite interesting. Setting up traps, continuing wagons, I don't know the reason behind this one, as I'm sure nobody else does either.

This is typical. See this and this.

Just an idea, but since right now it seems that tubby will be lynched, can everyone give their second suspect if:
a)Tubby is scum
b)Tubby is not scum

(A) Adel -> The second game I linked to above has Adel running her scumbuddy up to the verge of being lynched. When he (Surye) suddenly comes close to being lynched, she quickly jumps off and begins campaigning against someone else. (A) is the assumption that Tubby216 is scum, which would make :

unvote

for unstated reasons.

a very familiar scene.

I would also go with Rage, because nothing about Tubby216 flipping scum really distinguishes my suspicion of him, but rather puts more on the table.

(B) Rage -> Tubby216 flipping town would land me back here.

[Kison]

She voted Tubby216 in post 687 and unvoted in post 705

[Kison]

Slick.

I endorse the above post.

I feel safer saying I will vote tubby prior to deadline. i don't want to let someone save IP and switch wagons without some questioning behind it. this way if someone votes Tubby they need to treat it like a hammer and be able to explain their actions, and i would also like to allow them to be questioned if any one sees fit prior to the hammer. i never like people jumping wagons and hammering, then giving them three days with there scum buddies to come up with an excuse.

Were someone to suddenly switch their vote at the last minute in the manner you describe, that would provide valuable information. Do you not think that would be a good person to look into the following day?

[Kison]

Im a bit confused as to why Rage would have been killed there...

And I would have to say that it is quite obvious:
1) Nice "claimed" power role that could be gone and
2) You'll notice that all 5 people that voted out tubby are still in the game, therefore I suppose we would all be somewhat suspicious about each other. That also left Rage, Admiral, and Ecto as the only three left - not much choice there.

Huh? nearly everyone said yesterday if tubby flipped scum, their top suspect was Rage, so why was he the obvious night kill?

What do trackers do? They track. What do scum do? They kill. What happens when a tracker tracks scum who kills?

[Kison]

And I think this clears me of being a Godfather? Curious how you mentioned one in being in game and Tubby turns up as one.

Is Ecto a 9 or 10 confirmed now?

I am the one who mentioned the possibility of one being in the game, and that is because it is listed on the front page.

Are you asking this question to Adel, or to everyone?

I think Adel is scum, based on the way she ran Tubby216 up and abandoned ship once it got hot. I also disagree with mass claiming. We had two investigative roles who are now dead; I doubt there is a third. Mass claiming now has the potential to reveal a protective role(jailkeeper/doc), which could prevent Ectomancer from winding up in the endgame. If a protective doesn't die today/tonight, then tomorrow would be a more optimal time for mass claiming, if ever.

[Kison]

To answer Ectomancer's question: 95% cleared. Serial Killer is a possibility, but vague given the lack of kills we've seen. I also doubt the possibility of multiple godfathers. It's

possible

, but i don't think I've ever seen that scenario in all my time here except in the instance of multiple

competing

scum groups.

It's also possible we're dealing with four scum, but again, I think this is unlikely in a twelve player scenario. That would also require ThAdmiral & Ectomancer being paired and a nice, beefy set of power roles.

for instance if we had a doc claim, who made a correct save n0 and n2, then that would make 2 clear plus doc plus ecto, which gives 4/7 clear.

You are assuming best case scenarios. For example, if we have a jailkeeper, then it's possible that either (A) they blocked scum who tried to kill, (B) they blocked/jailed the person scum

targeted

, or (C), another role was at work that prevented the kill. (A) and (B) are only valid for jailkeeper, but (C) is valid for any such role -- if we out both a roleblocker and a doc, then nothing can guarantee that we will pin down which role accounted for the absence of a kill. Nothing guarantees that their targets are still alive. Therefore, forcing a mass claim today is not going to guarantee beneficial information.

I still think tomorrow is the optimal time for mass claiming, if ever. Again, if we out a protective role, Ectomancer more than likely won't make it to the endgame.

[Kison]

I'm not really sure where this discussion is going. Insanepenguin claimed yesterday, but that doesn't diminish his utilization of what he said to push a premature mass claim. I think it's plausible he didn't understand the downside of it considering his join date, though.

Back to Adel...

Before I vote, I have one question. One of the main reasons I suspect you is the way you ran Tubby216 up and hopped off his wagon. You quoted something from Mafia 78 earlier, and you also mentioned something about Albert B. Rampage ruining the game for you. I know you've said he would selectively join games with you for the sole purpose of campaigning your lynch, but were those just idle comments, or were they suppose to be an explanation for the link I drew between Tubby216 and Surye?

[Kison]

Before you vote me, are you aware that in my last game as scum (Mature Mafia) I got my entire scum through the entire game without a single loss? That was my next game as scum after Meta-Breaking Mafia, and I think I successfully applied the lessons I learned from Meta Breaking to Mature Mafia.

I've read parts of it, but I'll look at it again (nice slaughter, by the way! ). The problem is that if you never voted your partners, I'm not going to see much of how you handle bussing, other than avoidance. What makes Tubby216 and Surye comparable was that they both left themselves open to attack(Tubby216 being the more extreme case), and what

looks

like panic when both almost reached lynch. Without seeing that same situation in Mature Mafia, I don't think I can extinguish the parallel I'm seeing. The exception would be that you feel you're become more cautious when it comes to voting your scumbuddies ever since Meta Breaking, which brings me to this question: What do you think enabled you to avoid bussing in Mature Mafia?

[Kison]

If we look at the last 30 completed mini-normals (should include 90 mafia players) which % of mafia players not ever being replaced makes it a scumtell? 60%+ ? What other variables should we include in our analysis?

I don't think you can set any predefined value to the probability of scum replacement being scummy. Instead, I think what you'd have to do is independently find the probability of scum being replaced, and compare that to the probability of town being replaced. You then compare that probability, and the difference between the two gives you the town/scum tell you're looking for.

I may look over 100 games and find that 90% of scum players tend to be replaced, but that means nothing if I also look at the town players and find that they have a 90% chance of being replaced as well.

[Kison]

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

so why don't I have a few votes yet?

Speaking for myself, I am not sold on anything. Mature Mafia was a good enough example to cause me to rethink, especially after considering the distinction between the example I pulled up earlier and the (theoretical) tubby216 bus, mainly there being a far higher risk factor involved with pulling a quick tubby bus. I'm not really sure I buy into the argument that your hammer was as clearing as you seem to indicate, because by that point, Korts and I had already been on your case for ditching the wagon. If I was scum and in that situation I know I'd be tempted to cave in. The key moments I'm considering are:

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

why do you think kison is town?

...Speaking of which, didn't you think I was scum just yesterday, ThAdmiral?

[Kison]

1) Initial pressure you provided
2) The ditching

the ditching? which time? I got on and of a few times to make my future actions more difficult for scum to anticipate.
The ditching was partially to get an alternative going (always a good idea), and partially because I didn't have as strong of a case against tubby as I would like.

Ditching in general, but the one I pointed out yesterday(the one for 'unstated reasons') was the one that caught my eye and gave me a deja vu. You say that creating an alternative wagon is always a good idea - is this something you typically do as town?

you are totally right -- the % difference between % chance of being replaced is what matters. Should we limit the sample set of players to new(ish) players, like those that joined the site within 3 months of the game starting/replacing in?

Hmm... I think both a new player sample and an overall sample would be good. I'll try to collect figures sometime<tm>. How would you handle someone replaced multiple times? Would you give them a value equal to the number of times they're replaced?

for overall (new player is more complicated)
(number of times vanilla townie players were replaced)/(number of vanilla townies)= (town replacement rate)
(number of times mafia players were replaced)/(number of mafia players) = (mafia replacement rate)
does that look ok?

Do you think that counting only vanilla VS counting

all

forms of mafia(including those with roles) will sway the results?

[Kison]

Giving up, good. Now town, please take Adel's advice.

This day has drawn on long enough.

I really beg to differ. In fact, I'd really like to hear lots more from ThAdmiral and afatchic. Why are you in such a hurry?

[Kison]

I have a question for you: is this your normal level of activity in a game,

I've gone from Battle Mage level activity to reprehensible "EXTREME LURKING," many times within the same game, but I've tried to mellow out a bit. One thing that, maybe within the past 9 months, I believe has become more typical of me is that I make fewer posts, but with more content packed into each. Just now as I write this up I know I'll hit preview 50 times before I post and try to cram everything in. Maybe I should stop doing that.

This one: Scum, 55 posts. But I squeeze a lot into each post. To compare, look at shaft.ed's posts in that game. He has about 150, but it takes about the same amount of time to scroll from bottom to top of his isolated posts as it does with mine.

This one: Town, 32 posts(died early). But also condensed content.

would you say you have been playing quite pro-town in this game?

Pro-town, sure. "Quite" pro-town? If by quite you mean "exceptionally", then no. But I see no reason to classify what I've done so far as anything but beneficial. Do you?

hmmm... actually I think vanilla good vs. vanilla townie would be the best basis of comparison. The danger is that you would have to include so many games that changes in the meta get ironed out. Generally you probably have about 1.5 vanilla goons in each 12-player mininormal, and a good sample size would be ~60, so that would be all of the 12-player mini-normals on the two most recent pages of little Italy. Plotting each game's (townie replacement rate) and (vanilla goon replacement rate) on a chart against game number would also give a general idea of how the meta is changing with time. We can estimate that the current meta is projected about two months further along the rolling average line, and get testable predictions from the model.

60/1.5 = 40. There should be more than 40 completed mini normals on the first page of Little Italy, right? I think each forum page holds up to 75 threads.

I still do...to a certain degree.

Basically I think that there is a greater chance that there is scum out of one of afatchic and ip, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that you are the remaining scum. This is for many reasons but mainly because a lot of people have you high on their town lists for reasons that aren't apparent to me, which always makes me suspicious.

Skepticism is fine and typical, but why would other players labeling me as town make me more likely to be scum?

[Kison]

Basically...yes. As in I'd still like you to answer the question.

Which question do you want me to answer? I already answered your question:

Pro-town,

sure

. "Quite" pro-town? If by quite you mean "exceptionally",

then no.

Are you wanting me to answer my own question?

But I see no reason to classify what I've done so far as anything but beneficial. Do you?

I will do so anyway. Obviously I've not played perfectly, otherwise I'd never have gone after Rage, but I believe that as a net sum I've produced more positive content than negative. I went after the two people I was most suspicious of yesterday, and helped crack Tubby216. Now, do I believe this is reason to write me off as town? Of course not, and don't blame you for

not

writing me off. However, you did vote me yesterday, and you did indicate you had other reasons for suspecting me. My curiosity remains on what those other reasons are.

~~~

ThAdmiral's been producing constant opinions and some analysis; an afatchic-wagon I can support.

unvote, vote: afatchic

I'm trying to figure out why you pulled this 180:

Alright, I concede that you were the main propagator of the tubby wagon.

I've come to the reluctant conclusion, setting aside my conviction for a minute, that your motive for competing wagons somewhat justifies the wagon-hop between the tubby and IP cases; however the timing (jumping off tubby and beginning the push on the IP-wagon when tubby was put at L-1) is still suspicious.

Adel has been bringing this up since yesterday(game days), I think. Why does this suddenly become convincing enough to turn you away from your previous conviction that she is scum?

I'm very much on the fence about you right, Adel; some moments, I have a solid town read on you, but when I consider your Day 3 voting, the thought always occurs that the tubby case may have initially started out as a simple distancing act and you panicked at L-1.

You mentioned just yesterday(real life) that you were convinced that Adel was scum and ready for the day to end(and in fact, I think you've been calling her scum the entire game day), but here you claim you have moments of 'solid town reads' on her. When was the last time you had a solid town read on her?

[Kison]

@Kison: please pick a wagon to support before Ecto voices his opinion.

If by 'pick a wagon' you mean that I should vote one of the two players with votes right now, then I'll have to decline.

Vote: Adel

My list is something like this:

- Adel (9)
- InsanePenguin (8)
- afatchic (8)
- Korts (7)
- ThAdmiral (7)
- Ectomancer (1)

The numbers are an arbitrary means of ranking.

The vote is for:
- Tubby bailing. Yes, we've been over this a half dozen times, but despite the late explanation for why she bailed, the timing remains convenient. However, the comparison I drew before wasn't as strong was I'd thought.
- Bringing up mass claim & supporting it. We went through how mass claiming isn't beneficial, and there's really not much more to it. Mass claiming would be good for scum at this point.
- Pushing the idea of Ectomancer being a secondary Godfather. Never for a second seemed logical to me, and am not sure why it would seem logical to anyone.

InsanePenguin is second primarily because of his eagerness for the mass claim. Yes, he had already claimed by the time he shouted that he was '100% vanilla', but it was the intent of the post that has me inclined to believe he's more likely to be scum as a result of it. His most recent vote on afatchic looks very opportunistic to me; he's basically riding entirely on what Korts brought up while claiming he had been suspicious of afatchic the entire time as a sort of justification for agreeing with him. Reluctance to place him higher is because I'm wary that he may be noobing out.

Question for afatchic: Why do you rank Korts as highest on your list. Korts was actually

lowest

on my list(exception: Ectomancer) until his most recent change of heart with Adel. So I'm curious to see what has you swooning over him.

So, basically, I think Adel is most likely scum. Out of the two wagons thus far I'd go with IP.

[Kison]

Fat Chick, you didn't respond to my question.

Ectomancer, I'm a bit confused, because the impression _I_ had earlier is that you

didn't

want a mass claim earlier. Are you saying you want a mass claim to go forth today, and in that order?

[Kison]

Also, on the topic of mass claiming - the Vigilante kills do offer a potential workaround to one of the concerns I raised earlier - that being the premature death of Ectomancer.

If

we were to mass claim and find a protective role,

and

find that we have a gun somewhere lying around, then using that gun tonight along with our lynch will put us with, presumably, four players alive tomorrow. With a protective, Ectomancer would make it through the night.

The drawback, obviously, is that there are still three people to choose from, as opposed to two. However, we would still get three kills in over one scum kill.

This is something I admittedly failed to see.

However, _if_ we are going to mass claim today, I think mass claiming of roles should come

after

we determine whether or not anyone here has a gun they can use. I see virtually no benefit of claiming today if there are no guns lying around.

Also, looking at the front page, a major concern of mine is the possibility of a scum roleblocker. Common scum role not yet found dead and clearly listed as one of the possible scum roles on the first page.

Food for thought.

[Kison]

For the record, insanepenguin02 hasn't posted anywhere on site since late on the 25th.

[Kison]

And I sweaaaar that I dooooon't have a gun.

[Kison]

It's possible that the kill was used already; N3 may be the night. Doc/blocker had protected/blocked correctly N0 and more importantly N2, so I doubt N2 was the night unless the scum also have a blocker/doc and they scored a hit.

You do realize that what you're suggesting is impossible unless Rage committed suicide, right? Everyone here claimed not to have a gun, and unless some dumdum townie lied, Rage is the only other town aligned player who was alive during Night Three to have been able to use the gun to... well... kill himself. So it pretty much has to be a scum kill as far as I can tell. Look at it this way:

~~Night Three(assuming one scum, but it doesn't really matter for what I'm showing)~~
1)

Townie(still living)

->No gun, no reason to lie. Result: Not the murderer of Rage.
2)

Townie(still living)

->No gun, no reason to lie. Result: Not the murderer of Rage.
3)

Townie(still living)

->No gun, no reason to lie. Result: Not the murderer of Rage.
4)

Townie(still living)

->No gun, no reason to lie. Result: Not the murderer of Rage.
5)

Townie(still living)

->No gun, no reason to lie. Result: Not the murderer of Rage.
6)

Townie(still living)

->No gun, no reason to lie. Result: Not the murderer of Rage.
7)

Scum(still living)

->Possibly has a gun.
8)

Rage(dead)

->If he had a gun, it was not used successfully unless he decided to blow himself away. Result:

Prooooobably

not the murderer of Rage.

Anyone know if Rage was on anti-depressants?

[Kison]

Yes.

[Kison]

Hahaha. Why are you excluding the possibility that a town player with the gun was blocked when they tried to shoot?

I guess I epicfail at explaining things.

Here is the reason:

1) The only town players who were alive when Rage died are still alive now.
2) Everyone claimed no gun.

On the off chance that your question is the following: Why did you assume everyone who claimed no gun meant they didn't have one in the past?

My answer is: Because it seemed pretty obvious that it was inclusive in the question posed to us when we claimed. Maybe I'm wrong. Anyone want to claim they used a gun in the past?

[Kison]

Why's that? I'm having trouble finding Korts scummy, aside from his Adel crap and, I guess, sudden hop on IP.

[Kison]

was on both scum wagons.

was korts.

Is this a question?

These are the three wagons Korts was on at the

end

of each day:

Puta Puta (7): ThAdmiral, darkdude, Brain of Wombat, Tarballs, Korts, tubby216, Ectomancer

darkdude (6): Ectomancer, Korts, Adel, Rage, darkdude, insanepenguin02

tubby216 (5): Kison, Korts, insanepenguin02, afatchic, Adel

Assuming that what you said wasn't a question, what makes Korts' appearance on these three wagons particularly scummy as opposed to, say, Adel/Brain of Wombat, who was also on the same three?

[Kison]

I am pretty confident that ThAdmiral was listing Kort's presence on both scum wagon's as a town-tell. Yet Kison is still advancing the notion that my presence on and promotion of the darkdude and tubby wagon's is a scum-tell against me!

False. Look at how things played out. First, Ectomancer said he'd prefer to lynch Korts. Next, I asked him why. ThAdmiral proceeded to say:

was on both scum wagons.

was korts.

Lack or a question mark left me confused about whether or not he was asking a question or using that as a response to my question. That is why I addressed

both possibilities

in my question to him. My comparison between Korts' presence on those wagons to your presence on them was me addressing the possibility that he was responding to my question, in which case I wanted him to explain how Korts differed from you and Brain of Wombat. How that leads you to believe that I'm pushing your case on that basis, I do not know.

rereading the tubby wagon, does kison's questioning of tubby seem sincere to everyone? It is difficult for me to judge objectively, but it feels to me like he was serving as just an echo chamber for the case I built. What did he add that originated from him?

I wasn't echoing things you said. From what I recall, we were online the same time we were questioning him, and in some cases,

you

echoed

me

, and vice versa. Here is one example where I asked a question which you asked moments later. Also, look at your next post, and then mine following(611 & 612). The difference in the post times is an astounding 38 seconds(you can change the timestamp format in your profile). So, I really don't think you can justify the idea that I was copying your interrogation.

[Kison]

Because until you voted me, there was no

reason

for me to move my vote. Who were the two people I gave 9's on my list earlier? You and insanepenguin02. But:

- 7 alive, 4 to lynch.
- 3 votes were on InsanePenguin, my alternative for the day.
- Moving my vote to IP meant hammering. I wasn't necessarily ready for the day to end, especially not after Ectomancer mentioned Korts.

Now that you're voting me, though, default lynch is no lynch.

Unvote

Vote: insanepenguin02

No-one should hammer before Korts posts his suspicion list, though. Which I think he should, whether or not he's getting lynched today.

[Kison]

This is why I moved my vote once you got off the wagon.

At deadline a majority of votes cast is needed to lynch.

3/5 > 50%

[Kison]

Obv. I agree.

Ectomancer, of course, you should choose the order. Also, this may be obvious, but

you

may not even want to claim. Since you are pretty much confirmed town at this point, you having the information to work with while leaving everyone else in the dark about what your role may or may not be may work in our favor.

If that makes any sense.

[Kison]

<----

v

-

v

-

v

-

v

-

v

-vanilla-

a

-

a

-

a

-

a

-

a

[Kison]

Right now I have Adel->Fat Chick->Korts->Ectomancer

I'm not voting yet. I want to read over some things later tonight; mainly Day Two. I don't recall Adel being the main driving force behind Darkdude's lynch as Ectomancer seems to be implying(that's what I'd constitute as hyperbussing). If I wind up being wrong on that, it'll change some things.

because I think we should lynch you.

Considering you said this to me at the end of yesterday:

with deadline ~ 3 days from now, why are you voting for me Kison? Why am I the best lynch for the day?

...when my vote was on you, and your vote on me, I could flip this question back to you. Why did you find me to be the optimal lynch at that time yesterday? But, more importantly, why, if you found me to be the optimal lynch at that time yesterday, are you not voting for me right now?

Afatchic - What's your scum list right now?

[Kison]

That's actually a very good question.

There are few instances I can recall ever wanting

not

to kill as scum, and usually any time that occasion arises, it's to offset the numbers closer to endgame. Purposely no-killing twice is blatantly detrimental to your chances of winning. It's

possible

that scum picked up on Rage's Tracker claim at the end of Day Two and wanted to see if they could push his lynch, or feared him tracking one of them, though considering how he died the following night, I don't see why they wouldn't have just kill him the night after he claimed.

But I see no reason why there wouldn't have been a kill on Night Zero.

The problem is that everyone here claimed they're vanilla. Even among MacavityLock, Puta Puta, and Rage, nothing really accounts for a lack of kills. If anyone is lying, it should be scum: the same group wanting to

use

their kills.

One possibility is that there's a serial killer and the Mafia tried taking a swing. But given the grand total of three night kills over five game nights(N0,N1,N2,N3,N4), you'd expect a maximum of ten with two groups of scum. To have seven kills unaccounted for seems extremely unlikely. Nor does it reinforce a town of three power roles, two of which are used indirectly, three of which would be useless against one of the scum players(SK), and one of which is useless against the godfather.

So, I don't really know. Scum must suck this game? What do you think?

[Kison]

Hmmm...

Can anyone else think of why there might not have been scum kills during Nights Zero and Two?

This is probably the best argument for lynching afatchic... Given the amount of effort Adel put into the game from the start, I really don't see her failing to submit a night kill

accidentally

... But a duo of afatchic and tubby216, I

could

see doing that. (not sure about Korts)

Night Two begins: Thu Dec 18, 2008 7:35:10 (EST)
afatchic gets announced in: Thu Dec 18, 2008 15:04:55 (EST)
Night Two ends: Sat Dec 20, 2008 21:03:09 (EST)
afatchic's first post: Sun Dec 21, 2008 0:13:56 (EST)

Counterargument: afatchic had a shitload of posts on-site between the time he replaced in, and the end of the night.

[Kison]

Do you have any better explanation for why there have been two nights without a kill, then? Recall that we have access to all the possible roles in the game, and everyone here claimed vanilla. That means there were never any protective/blocking roles in the game, at least not town aligned, unless someone here is lying.

[Kison]

To use the same argument against kison... he joined a day prior to lynch for day 2, and didn't post until the day after the thread opened back up.

That's because I

try

not to post until I have read a game. Look how quickly I had posted after day three opened up(Sat Dec 20, 2008 21:58:50 - Sat Dec 20, 2008 21:03:09), and look how thorough my post was. It meant I had read the entire game during the passing days. It also means I was actively aware of the game and was taking care of it. Does that depict the behavior of someone who would forget to send in their night kill?

[Kison]

I don't see a dead scum-aligned roleblocker. If there is one it is Korts. If there isn't one I almost think we have a scum godfather instead.

I'm confused by how you came to the conclusion that Korts would be the scum roleblocker?

Also,

Vote: afatchic

-> Why do you think Korts is scum? The only reason I can dig up from your vote is that he basically said what I said, that you'd be the most likely to fail to submit the night kill. Why is he scum when I was the first to suggest it? Also, since you believe that scum failed to submit their night kill, do you now believe Korts was the one who is responsible for this?

[Kison]

If anything, what you just suggested is another argument for incompetence among the scum team... The ideal move would have been to save the gun inventor's gun and use the Mafia kill. Because, if they purposely no-killed but instead used the gun, they guaranteed they wasted a kill. On the other hand, if they killed with the Mafia's inherent night kill and withheld use of the gun, they still had a shot of using the gun later and double killing on a single night.

Obviously this assumes the mechanics work traditionally.

So, even if what you suggested is true, the best candidate, in my opinion, for making the blunder of using the gun over the Mafia kill would be afatchic.

[Kison]

So, even if what you suggested is true, the best candidate, in my opinion, for making the blunder of using the gun over the Mafia kill would be afatchic.

Comments like this one are really starting to get on my nerves. im not a complete moron, which might be a surprise to some of you.

Sorry, I'm not trying to be offensive. I'm not saying that making such a mistake makes you an idiot. I merely think that someone with less time on the site would be more likely to overlook something like this.

[Kison]

I dont know that it would have been incompetence. As I said, they may have been concerned about a tracker/watcher being out there and figured if caught out using the gun inventors weapon, no problem.

That's just it, though. Ever since when did watchers and trackers determine the weapon used? Why not just have the recipient of the gun go out and make the kill with the mafia's night kill(assuming that is possible)? What difference would it make from the perspective of the person doing the tracking/watching? But for them, it makes a difference in that using the gun wastes the future use of that kill.

My suspicious mind looks at how Kison ridicules the choice of using the gun instead of a scum kill N2, and actually I feel some truth behind his opinion, but I wonder if the vehemence behind it is because Tubby was Godfather and decided to do it that way over Kison's objections.

You made a suggestion which I'm assessing, and after my assessment I believe scum would have had far less reason to use the gun over their own kill. I can't really argue that I'm doing this from the perspective of a townie rather than the perspective of scum - I'd probably be saying this regardless of my alignment.

Secondly, does tubby216 look like someone who would push to have things his way rather than follow someone else?

[Kison]

I'd like everyone to say which scenario you think the more likely -
1: inventor gun being used in lieu of scum nk and failing
2: Doc/Roleblocker prevented a kill n2 and doesnt want to be forced to claim today
3: Scum was inattentive and didn't send in a kill

3 > 2 > 1

[Kison]

afatchic->Korts->Adel

[Kison]

Thanks, ABR!

If there are any power roles, then there's no reason not to fess up at this point. I'd actually like us to cycle through and reclaim before we move on so that this isn't available as a gambit later in the day.

Claim: Vanilla Townie

[Kison]

And I'd prefer a Korts lynch to an Adel lynch. Hooray for love triangle.

But that's taking into account the missing kills and the level of effort Adel has put into the game. With no reason for a power role not to come forward at this point, scum fuckup is the only explanation I can think of.

Also, we can pretty safely assume that a scum killing ability would be standard, unlike afatchic's theory that they might only be given odd kills, because of this:

Example: The group ability of Vigilante is identical with a mafia kill.

You are a

Vigilante

.

Each night

you can attempt to kill another player.

[Kison]

Off the top of my head, I have no idea. I'd have to check. I don't even remember the last time I played with IH. I just know it was a very long time ago.

Skruffs (Replacing IH) - Tracker - shot and stabbed repeatedly night 3

Guardian (replacement for IH) - Mafia Godfather, lynched Day Four.

Townie – Jenter Brolincani (Sikario8 (IH (thinktank))

--- Screw it, I'll just do all of them ---

Teffc

IH

Zindaras

, Mafia Roleblocker, survived

Porochaz(TOWNIE) lynched Day 7

- Announced here
- Again here

Llyod (Replacing IH)

- Announced Here
- Role

jeep, replacing IH D3 (Baron Danglers, Innocent) - killed Pre-Game, found Day 7.

IH

Azrael001, Town, lynched Day 6

EmpTyger, replacing IH, replacing zoke

- Role Reveal

3.) Mr. Flay (rep. IH), Mafia, survived

Elias_the_thief (replaces IH) Townie - killed Night 2

Elias_the_thief (replaces IH)

- Role Reveal

Adel, replacing IH

- Role Reveal

Xylthixlm replaced ChannelDelibird D1 who replaced IH D1

- Role Reveal

9)

IH Lord Gurgi

, Doctor, lynched Day 2

Qman replaces IH (Townie) - killed Night 2

VampanezeHunter, replacing IH

- Role Reveal(Last Mafia dead, player still alive = town)

5: pablito (replacing ih) - heather sawyer - scum - lynched day 2

[Kison]

I think that's every game he replaced from on this site. I did a search for keyword 'IH' showing all Mafia Games. I only took into account completed, non Marathon games where he showed up as a replacement on the front page roster.

Town: 13
Scum: 5

5/18 = 27.8%

Those numbers look very convincing that I'm be town. That is, if you're looking at them incorrectly. You can't just blindly accept those numbers as-is. Maybe if it was 17-1. The thing with replacements is you need to keep in mind that if it's done completely at random, then there will be a far greater likelihood that the player will be replacing out as town, because there's a far greater chance that player will receive a town role PM than a scum role PM.

The time when replacement frequency will show an indication of a player tending to do it as a certain alignment is when the frequency is greater than the raw probability of receiving a role PM of the alignment in question.

[Kison]

I'm pretty sure I'm not.

Why do you prefer to lynch me over Korts?

[Kison]

Plus you tried to wifom some uncertainty about Ecto's alignment following your NK of ThAdmiral.

Where did I WIFOM uncertainty about Ectomancer's alignment? I recall writing him off as 99% confirmed. I'm going to take a leap of faith and assume you're talking about this post? That's the closest I can find to suggesting a possibility that Ectomancer could be scum, and I even very clearly suggested I didn't support the idea of a serial killer being in the game due to the lack of night kills. I was more speculating possibilities out loud because I was somewhat baffled at the missing kills and missing roles to account for their absence.

I don't know what went wrong with the N2 NK, but I think the fact that you had just replaced in probably didn't help.

Fair and valid point which I can only argue saying that I have never missed a deadline(but I guess that'd require some proof, wouldn't it? ), especially if I was actively aware of and reading the game, which I clearly was given my quick post when the day opened up.

I was totally playing to draw a NK from him, trying to fake him out into thinking that I was a power-role. I think Kison-scum would keep me alive to end-game.

Would Kison-scum do that? I don't believe this is the optimal endgame for Kison-scum, and here's why:

1) Ectomancer practically wrote me off earlier in the game.
2) Korts had been Ectomancer's top pick for a long time, and would be an easier player to push into voting Korts, especially...
3) If you died and wound up turning up a power role, because Ectomancer backed your theory that Korts was a scum roleblocker who was rolefishing.

[Kison]

I was totally playing to draw a NK from him, trying to fake him out into thinking that I was a power-role. I think Kison-scum would keep me alive to end-game.

Would Kison-scum do that? I don't believe this is the optimal endgame for Kison-scum, and here's why:

1) Ectomancer practically wrote me off earlier in the game.

please explain this. I do not understand what you mean by "practically wrote me off".

I'm over exaggerating, but this is what I'm referring to:

Spank my bottom and call me a bad boy, but I think Kison is my advisor today. I trust him.

My point is that this on top of his distrust for Korts would set the stage for an easy mislynch of Korts if I was scum and left both of them alive. You know how I play as scum. The closer I get to endgame, the more I run through the possibilities. One could argue I'm playing a game of WIFOM to mislead whichever of you is town into thinking I'm not scum, but that raises the question of why I wouldn't have just gone with the cakewalk route to victory(Korts+Ectomancer) instead. Both avenues offer the same possible outcomes. This avenue holds far greater risks.

2) Korts had been Ectomancer's top pick for a long time, and would be an easier player to push into voting Korts, especially...

why would Korts kill ThAdmiral before Ecto?

Why not? After tubby tied, the order didn't really matter - they couldn't have been scum together unless there was a four man scum team. This means the only question about ThAdmiral's investigation's validity depended not on his alignment, but the possibility of Ectomancer being a godfather.

[Kison]

I'm not sure what Korts is doing, but I thought he was about to lay the smack down on me. Still waiting for that.

Ultimately, I think I will be voting for Korts. I've been over this a bunch of times in my head:

- I believe this endgame makes most sense for Korts to have put in place. WIFOM's a possibility, I know, but these things need to be considered because it went through someone's head. Adel knew I had her on the back burner, as I'd pressed her harder than any player. Not to mention, I had placed Korts among the least suspicious up until now. Ectomancer also had given an indication that he found Adel's double bussing to be an indication that Adelscum was unlikely. Why, then, would Adel kill Ectomancer?

- Hard backtracking of Adel after his 'conviction' that she was the lynch for the day continues to be unsettling. What I don't understand(which I possibly have missed) is why Korts put Adel as his most preferred lynch (now) if he was satisfied by her reasoning for the tubby<->IP wagon hop.

- In this post, tubby put Adel in the 'town' category. I believe 'middle of the road' is a more likely placement for newbish(note: not complete newb) scum to place their scumbuddy. Yes, I realize I was also one he placed as 'middle of the road,' but I don't care because I am half talking to myself.

- At one point(Can't seem to find it) I recall tubby promising to post a case on Korts that never formed. Possibly weak bussing.

---

I'm going to withhold voting until both of you chime in, but especially Korts because he is not only the person I am threatening to vote, but also because he was about to post a read on me. We still have a little bit more than a week.

[Kison]

Well, that was underwhelming.

Vote: Korts

From what I gather, the best you threw at me is that I reinforced your reason for attacking Adel. The problem is that I had a

unique

reason for disliking that move: the previous game I had played with Adel which I referenced as a clear example of why that vote hop looked familiar to what I'd seen her do as scum.

I stand by everything I said in my last post. If Adel doesn't come in here, hammer, and dance a the mafia jig of victory, I'll see about saying more. I'll be demoralized otherwise.

[Kison]

*sigh*

Like I said, I wouldn't have orchestrated this endgame.

[Kison]

No clue. I'm not scum.

[Kison]

If you give me five minutes, I will demonstrate just how screwed we are.

[Kison]

[Kison]

Alright.

I lied. I was scum. Congrats.

The lack of night kills was because we had the combined power of gun invention. We didn't begin with guns, so that's why we couldn't kill on night 0. We couldn't kill whichever night I replaced in because darkdude had been given the gun the night before. We didn't receive any of Macavity's guns.

I think that's about all the explanation there is to be given. The rest of the game was pretty straight forward.

[Kison]

I was really looking forward to staring at those eleven flowerless graves.

I think Adel was the MVP of the game. She kept the ball rolling, applying pressure where needed, and ultimately made the right call on two of the most critical lynches, one of which never would have progressed without her instigation. Whereas Korts and Ectomancer began to fall back with their contribution, Adel kept her head in the game the entire time.

[Kison]

Do either of you care if I post the quicktopic link?

From what TDC said before I joined the game, each individual could only have one gun at any given time. All three of us could have had one gun each, and fired them all at once, but I could not, for example, have stocked up three guns myself after tubby died and fired them on the same night. It was the first thing that came to mind as a solution to dealing with Rage.

Provided the two guns have gone to different people and they're both still alive, yes you can kill twice. (and the third one of you, if still alive, could give one of you another gun, too)

@kison why did you kill Ecto instead of me? Just because he was confirmed? How did you expect endgame to work out?

I knew Ectomancer hadn't written me off as I claimed. I was well aware of him saying he was up in the air about me. One of the reasons I didn't feel that Ectomancer would go after Korts as hard was because I expected there not to be any roles in the game. One of the reasons Ectomancer was going after Korts was because he bought into your theory of him being the scum roleblocker. The other reason is that I anticipated a lot of flack for the endgame not making

any

sense for Korts to have put in place - pretty much the opposite of what I said for the endgame that actually did come to be.

Basically, I felt that with afatchic and you both dying and coming up town, and roleless(Brain of Wombat pretty much claimed Vanilla), there would've been enough room for swinging Ectomancer my way. The Adel/Korts/Kison endgame left a lot of ambiguity and could have gone any of the three ways. I really thought I had this game bagged.

[Kison]

I still don't get where I expressed suspicion of Ectomancer.