Mini 707: Cops and Robbers Mafia (Game Over)

[Patrick]

Hi everyone. Will read up and post within 48 hours.

[Patrick]

Only skimmed so far, thorough read tomorrow on my day off. Just from the last page or so, I don't want anyone putting corperate at lynch-1. Scum or not, spoof or not, there obviously should be more to this day.

[Patrick]

Crywolf, if you dislike that from Ether, what do you think of the post where Tisp asked two different people to rank 6 players in terms of scumminess?

[Patrick]

Update. Just to let people know I've been reading, but gave up last night after losing a post to CPU. It's my first priority when I get home today to get something substantial posted. That said,

Vote: Simpor

[Patrick]

What I saw about Simpor was more that he seemed to go to some length to avoid explaining why he asked the question in the first place, instead he seemed to throw it back at Ether, then pointing to crywolf with a, "but she did it as well!" type of defence (which I would disagree with anyway). He has actually answered it now, but not especially convincingly; seems kind of obvious he was asking her for a reaction. Why would it have been useful to get crywolf's take on whether or not Ether's a powerole?

Others players:

Mizzy looked scummy to me early on and has backed off my scumdar a fair bit as other suspicions have appeared. I don't like her reasons in 39: The first paragraph doesn't seem that different to the kind of thing she's used to call Ether protown before (or at least, in one game). I realise Ether and Fuzzyman are different, but it still seems like a pretty shoddy reason. The second paragraph seems more like scolding him than pointing out anything scummy he's done. That said, I don't have any particular problem with her reason for finding Ether protown, and her FoS/attack against Green Crayons (whilst I disagree with it completely) reminds me of the kind of stuff she used to attack me last time we played, especially the "asking questions that weren't his responsibility to ask" thing (similar vibe from her fairly ludicrous comment that Fuzzyman was distracting from the random voting stage, for some reason). From her attitude towards Ether I would guess they're not scum together, but that's not terribly useful to me.

corporate is difficult. I dislike almost everything he's posted; his initial (explained) suspicions seem heavily based around the possibility that Mizzy might be faking a work crisis so she can lurk for 2 weeks, which is a terribly thin reason even for early in the game (is someone likely to fake this when they're in like 2 other games? Seems like mudslinging rather than thoughtful). Then he says it's not that big a deal. His response to Tisp's vote and blanket fos also don't endear me to him either. The only thing that makes me pause is that I think premature claiming is a protown tell for newbies (although the mention of wifom there made me twitch slightly). His suicidal tendencies are mostly null in my book; if he's town, I would really like him to read back and respond to the accusations made against him. Unlike alot of the wagons like this I've seen, I actually do think there's something valid in it and find him somewhat scummy, but it's not straightforward.

I think Ether is very likely town. She's usually much more withdrawn than this as scum, and many times her thoughts have matched mine as I was reading through the thread. The latter point is also true for Green Crayons who I'm seeing as fairly protown; he seems to be really reading people's posts closely and noticing things, and his unvote on corporate also seems somewhat protown regardless of what corporate is.

crywolf bothers me in the sense that it feels like the highlight of her play is a pretty big overreaction to being poked at to post more content. crywolf, did you ever explain why you think leading the town is scummy? Other than that, I don't particularly like how she picked up on Mizzy's "ruse" and then kind of disclaimed it after.

Fuzzyman's early play didn't bother me. His Mizzyvote in 104 dings slightly because the reason is simply bad; I don't think we ever got a response from him about that, unless I'm missing it.

q21, Tisp, ped meh. I'm not wild about q21's reason for voting Mizzy either (would also be interested in seeing an example of that btw), although his comments in his 8th post about Ether and in his 9th post to Fuzzyman makes me feel slightly better about his alignment. I didn't pick up much on Tisp either way. Ped seems a little passive, but not much I can put my finger on. Ped, can you clarify your top suspects?

Pretty scummy cast so far. Simpor looks the worst to me probably followed by corporate, crywolf and weaker suspicion of Fuzzyman, in that order. Then I have Mizzy and Ped. Mizzy was originally higher but I keep thinking I'm perhaps just leary of things that are largely her playstyle. Q21 and Tisp are pretty much neutral, and GC and Ether seem like town.

[Patrick]

Why don't you feel that his opinion was reasonable? Wasn't yours kind of similar (no strong feeling)?

[Patrick]

I think trying to lead a town is pretty much 85/15 scummy because the scum want to beable to convince the town who is the 'scum' without drawing much or any attention to themself or their partners. I have always seen scum try to take over the town early to try to win it as early as possible.

Thing is, protown players have just as much incentive as scum to try and convince the town of their suspicions. Probably moreso actually, since scum can sometimes win by doing very little. I would say leading the town is far

more

likely to draw attention to a player, which seems to be the opposite of what you're saying, unless I'm misunderstanding. Can you link to completed games that made you think scum are more likely to lead the town?

[Patrick]

Much as I approve of pressure on Simpor, your suspicion of him seems to come out of nowhere. I've always been getting the impression you've been reading him as neutral at worst, and I don't think you've really made any points against him. What made him your second best suspect?

[Patrick]

I agree with you about crywolf over corporate at this point.

Fuzzyman, my comment on you was an implied question. Why did you vote Mizzy for not countering GC's points when she had said less than 2 days before that she was short of time and would have to do it bit by bit?

[Patrick]

Dashing off for dinner now, but I'll just note that I think that's lynch-1. I'll have some thoughts on all this later.

[Patrick]

Ether/Patrick: If Simpor turns up town, who should we have lynched instead? If Simpor turns up scum, who is most likely to be the scum-buddies?

I feel that no matter what Simpor is, Fuzzyman seems like a reasonable scum candidate. On entering the game I had weak bad vibes from him and felt he was potentially playing opportunistically, based on his dodgy Mizzyvote and the fact he was all over corporate (though the latter isn't necessarily bad, but he seems more certain on corporate than I feel is warranted). I also think his switch from finding Simpor kind of scummy but "not even close to the amount of scumminess corp excreted" to then being prepared to vote him could easily be just a switch with the momentum.

If Simpor is scum, Tisp might be trying to keep the pressure elsewhere whilst keeping the option in hand to switch to bus mode. I'd like thorough clarification of where he stands on Simpor, because I too got different impressions from "corp, simpor and crywolf are acting far worse" and "very weak Simpor boat". I find it less of an issue if Simpor is town. Mizzy has also expressed negative sentiments about Simpor without vote but not in a way I find scummy. I understand the caution in 329.

GC: I'm sort of confused by your vote for Simpor. Correct me if I'm wrong, but previously you saw the only real point against him as fishing (in the post where you quoted me). Now you're voting him because of the additional point that he was deflecting from the fishing when questioned on it. I made that point in the first paragraph of my largest post, which you've certainly read. Did you just miss this or something? Dunno, it would seem like a weird thing to do as scum to pretend you'd missed the other cases against Simpor, but your vote for him surprises me.

I'll mull over crywolf. I need to look at that game she linked too, I was kind of hoping for one where she was town and I could do something easy and check whether or not she'd expressed the "scum always take over the town" sentiment Actually,

unvote

, not because I think Simpor looks any better, but because I don't want a hammer just yet.

Empking is funny. He will also most likely be totally useless, so why do I feel like I've won some kind of bet? I just hope Patrick appreciates the humor as much as I do. Wherever he is.

Heh. Actually, even when I felt awake I wasn't sure what this meant. D'you have a meta on Empking?

[Patrick]

The argument involving Empking isn't terribly fascinating to me. It seems Empking is accusing GC of strawmanning his first attack on Ether. I didn't see Empking's attack as the too townie fallacy (though it's awful anyway), but I doubt GC was maliciously strawmanning him. I think Empking's accusation that GC lied seems rather pendantic and isn't really the most obvious explanation. Is there another major point that I'm missing? Not convinced he's scummy though.

Aceagain Patrick - Hasn't posted that much but everything he has posted seems townie.

What do you think of his defence of your top suspect?

I'm not sure what the point of 279 was. Simpor was spiritually at lynch-1, what does he need more pressure for?

On the other hand, corporate's unvote isn't really what I'd expect if he's scum together with Simpor. I'd be interested to know what he saw in Simpor's post that made him reconsider though; it didn't do much for me.

Unless some major changes I'll be putting my vote back on Simpor soon, but I'd really like Tisp's take on what's going on.

[Patrick]

Meh. I don't think scum are more likely than usual to defend each other like that. If Mizzy is scum, I see it more as trying to make a friend. I feel slightly better about you though.

[Patrick]

Fuzzyman, what was good about 382?

[Patrick]

No reason not to

Vote: Simpor

. Dislike the corporate wagon.

[Patrick]

Not liking how comfortable Tisp seems to be sitting on the corporate wagon and not doing much else. Tisp, do you have any opinions on stuff that happened between your last two posts?

Fuzzyman confuses me. I feel like his unvote seems quite risky if he's scum together with Simpor, but maybe I'm overthinking. I guess I could see him lying as town or scum then admitting it when he got hopelessly caught out, but then I don't even understand the revote for Simpor; I thought the entire point of switching to corporate was that he finds corporate scummier? Would appreciate Fuzzyman's clarification on which of the two he's more suspicious of.

I feel quite alot better about corporate these past few pages and I'm less than thrilled with crywolf voting him like that. I feel like corporate is genuinely trying to find the right lynch.

The chance of Ether being scum is near zero. Seriously. All I see her being attacked for is stuff that she does more often as town. I don't like how many of the samey samey kind of sentiments I'm seeing being repeated, and like how corporate seems to be not taking such an easy route on this.

[Patrick]

Yeah, that does seem counterintuitive. I don't think his lack of doing anything much is in his favour.

I'm not sold on the possible Empking/Tisp connection suggested by q21, as I don't think scum would be more likely than average to interact like that. Of the two, Tisp seems scummy to me and I'm unsure of Empking.

Emp, what's your opinion of Tisp?

[Patrick]

Quick poke in from work, I'd conceivably move to Fuzzyman if needed, but really think Simpor would be a better play. I think corporate is likely protown. I'd sort of like to hear what Tisp's replacement has to say, given than Tisp didn't do much, but not enough to hold everyone up again at this point. Will look at those game's Fuzzy pointed too in the meantime. I've read the debate between Mizzy and Emp and GC and got very little out of it.

[Patrick]

Empking, was your most recent LoS written in order? Why is Fuzzy a better lynch than Simpor?

[Patrick]

What's he done that's lynchworthy in your opinion?

I've looked over crywolf, who I've been fairly unsure about. I'm inclined to believe that her stand on scum trying to take over the town was not just made up for this game, especially after also looking at the second game she linked too. I could see Ether's suggestion for crywolf's change of heart being correct, but don't see any special reason to favour it over others; I could see it as a switch onto easier targets, and she's been fairly opportunistic with her suspicions and votes, especially with the last one on corporate. What did he do? It seems like he'd said some reasonable stuff there. The other thing to stick out to me is that she's been somewhat lenient on Tisp, who seems to have exhited some of the behaviours she's suspicious of others for (he's certainly been unhelpful, he's certainly been lurking and not contributing much). Based on how her suspicions seem to flow, I wouldn't be surprised if she's scum. There's better suspects out there, but crywolf reads as somewhat scummy to me.

[Patrick]

Bah. Go town.

Post ++

[Patrick]

I continue to deny having engaged in suboptimal cop investigating during this game.

Your last two choices of investigations were the worst options possible, and I'm surprised to see you unwilling to accept that. You quite possibly lost us the game by not investigating and clearing Mizzy on either of those nights. I don't know though, as it might still have been tight with bio choosing between a semi cleared Mizzy and the miller claimer in an endgame. I wouldn't have liked to have to make that choice. But don't live under any illusiuons, please.

Just about the only correct suspicion I had this game was Tisp. And when I was watching on day 2, I was convinced Green Crayons had to be either a cop with an innocent result on crywolf or scum with her; he seemed to be looking for excuses to back away from her. When he returned to crywolf after Ether suddenly started on her again, I was leaning towards the latter case. I thought mykonian really timed his miller claim well, and the other two didn't give me any major scumvibes either until very late.

Interesting setup. Probably balanced, though I don't much like the swinginess, especially with a night start. I was quite glad to be killed night 1, and hadn't really been expecting it, as I didn't feel like I had a very good idea what was going on. Well played scum, you were the better team in this game.

[Patrick]

Not to mention I let Ether/Patrick talk me into a D1 lynch that I wasn't really behind, so I let an appeal to authority get to the better of me. Damn their reputations!

It's a trap I've fallen into as well, especially when I think the experienced player is town. I try to give reputation less weight now and just focus on the merit of what someone is saying.