Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[wolframnhart]

Hey guys looks like i am replacing into your game, am about to head out the door but should be able to do a read through when i get back. If not it will be tomorrow at the latest.

[wolframnhart]

Finished reading, lot of things to go through for nine pages. Firstly hello Sekinj, been awhile since I have played with you. Secondly

unvote sekinj

since my predecessor had his vote there and I do not agree with his voting of Sekinj atm. Secondly I am not really sold on the Kar case, and I do not think that Myko is doing him any favors by defending him as he is. If Kar flips scum, then myko will be looked at hard the next day if scum leave him alive due to that defense. If everyone decides Kar's defense is good enough to unvote him for now because they don't want to risk lynching a power role, and for whatever reasons they vote Myko, then if Myko flips scum Kar will once again be looked at because a scum member had defended him as hard as he did. Also:

1. I think indeed afatchic is scum. If so, it would kinda clear Kairyuu.

2. if afat isn´t scum, Kairyuu promises us a story. I want to hear that story. Good story, we let him live, bad story, we lynch him. But I repeat, don´t investigate him as cop, because if Kairyuu is scum, it probably doesn´t matter.

3. Look at Kairyuu´s play. I don´t know how he usually play´s, yet the whole thing screams town to me.

If I were scum, day one wouldn´t be the day to make a lot of noise, to attract attention, and if I´m a godfather, I wouldn´t ask for a investigation day 1. It doesn´t fit. Same counts for Artem.

I want to look at Kairyuu again day 2, because then we have all the information necessary to decide on his lynch. The lynch, maybe the nightkill clears something, and Kairyuu´s story.

It could stop us from lynching a power role.

Bolded i did. I really don't like that part of your post Myko because all it is is WIFOM. Who cares how you would act in Kar's situation, you are giving him a defense based on your play, and that is not the topic at hand here. And asking us just to look at his play is doing nothing at all for Kar, because everyone's play is different depending on the game, the set up, the players involved, and the role given. And even if I don't agree with the case on Kar right now, i really don't like the second bolded either. What you are doing here is asking us o wait on a lynch, when players do feel that they have the info they want to lynch Kar, even if you don't, so we can have the info to lynch him tomorrow? That's basically saying "Let's save his lynch for tomorrow" because you know people will look at him tomorrow if he is alive because as you said, the NK (or NK's depending on setup) will clear something and Kar's story. Clear what? What something? and to clarify kar's story to me seem more a setup agains Kar that you could be planning for tomorrow.

In other words:

vote Mykonian

[wolframnhart]

If that is a true claim then i can probably guess as to who your partner is.

[wolframnhart]

which is why i haven't said it. besides, i could always be wrong

[wolframnhart]

how the heck am i lurking? i joined sunday and have posted everyday.

[wolframnhart]

unvote mykonian

I kinda figured after Kar claimed mason that Myko was his partner only due to his defense of Kar, and i was right.

[wolframnhart]

4 things are known, and there being no masons? Did i read that right with you saying there are no masons or am i missing something?

[wolframnhart]

@CF
Currently I am looking at Alvinz95. He claims he doesn't lurk, but points out small things and is no a bulk mafia player. This to me is saying he is going to lay low and has given us an excuse to overlook him, which I think a few players have because they accused afatchic for lurking, but never really mentioned Alvinz95 as a lurker as often as Afatchic.

As for others, i am trying to figure out if Alvinz95 does end up being scum who i believe his partner would be, so i am trying to piece that together right now.

[wolframnhart]

Prod: alvinz95, Ku_F, Scigatt

Comon guys, don't be annoying and lame, post.

I'll post something bigger later, I want these people to post first. I have to big suspects as for now.

why do you have to wait for them to put up your big post?

[wolframnhart]

why are you happy with your non voting status?

[wolframnhart]

is it just me or are those last three quoted names in weird writting?

[wolframnhart]

A general question to everyone: Do you believe the mason claim by Kairyuu and mykonian? My case may be a bit fantastic, I just want to see what other opinions about it are.

Myself I believe it, for now. At the most it is the best thing we have to go off of for the moment.

[wolframnhart]

Really sorry guys, i got prodded in a couple games. I let myself lag and i hate that. So lemme dive in on what I think right now on Zade:

He began lurking and eventually left because Kairyuu was rather too rabid and the majority of the rest of you rather too eager to play ducklings.

Zade posts that afatchic lurked because Kair became rabid after him, and others folowed, not the most pro-town thing in my view. If you are townie, defend yourself. If a player goes all quiet because attention is on them, that imho is more of an "oh shit they found me! what do i do???" thing to do.

@Sekinj: I feel it is. I fully admit that I'd be cautious to hammer, but I hoped that by presenting a case against you and voting, you might say more that would either fully convince me or make me double-guess myself.

After voting Sek (and even apologizing is Zade annoyed her) Zade posts this up. If a person wasn't fully convinced, why vote in the first place? Why would you want to have someone speak up more to convince you? And why especially if you though someone was scummy would you wan to have hat person possibly make you double-guess yourself? Seems more like a set up to retract her vote later on if no one would vote Sek.

As for why I didn't vote for Artem: I haven't made up my mind about him, yet. I fully admit it. He might be scum, but I don't think that I know enough to state so. He might be town, but I'm a long way from gambling on it. I'd rather address you for the time being, for aforementioned reasons.

She isn't fully convinced on Sek but she votes her. She isn't fully convinced on Artem, bu she doesn't vote him?

I didn't much agree with afatchic being scum just because of active lurking, but with his predecessors posts i haven' really found anything saying either were exactly pro-town either.

vote Scheherazade

[wolframnhart]

you didn't think your case was good enough for a hammer? just a vote?

[wolframnhart]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

Either we have a doctor or the mafia is terrified. Killing germy, mykonian, or Kairyuu would have been easy, and it really only puts their claims on the line. The role pm for the mafia says they aren't required to kill (uses "may", not "must"), so it is very likely that the Mafia is scared of killing the obvious players.

mFOS: Kairyuu, mykonian

It's minor because it is very plausible that we have a doctor. But last night certainly did not help your claims.

Yet at the same time, maybe that is something the mafia is/was hoping for, doubt being cast on Kair and Myko.

[wolframnhart]

One can never truely assume what scum might do with their night kill. They easily could have decided to not kill Kair or Myko just to cast doubt on them as masons, since I think a couple of people were saying they weren't completely sure on that, especially if both of them are alive on day 3. Scum also might not have wanted to kill off just anyone because every ones suspicions were all over yesterday, so this way they could add more confusion (i think this is the least likely btw but as i said, you can't really know what scum might do), OR we really do have a doc and that person picked the right one.

[wolframnhart]

OK i really feel the need to post here because i know i am not helping out as much as my predecessor was in his posts and i really don't like not contributing. I admit I am a little confused to the set up of the game and i can't quite get the hang of the roles out there to help me cross out suspects.

For now i still believe the kair and myko mason claim. Could scum have targeted one of them last night and be blocked? Of course, but i would think scum might not target them only because if they killed one the other would be automatically (in my eyes at least feel free to argue with me) cleared of being scum, so with a confirmed townie all they way they would almost have to kill off that person the next night, there by eliminating the possibility of hitting a power role of doc/cop, and the fact that the doc might protect that mason that was left, which nullifies the kill and really hurts the scum. It would have been better for them to target someone else, and perhaps they did and maybe targeted Germy because of his soft claim, and the doc might have guessed that and protected Germy last night, if that is the complete case bravo to the doc.

I don't believe we have a SK in the set up thought because it wouldn't make sense to not kill off a person last night if we did have an SK. In fact if we had an SK, we might still think we don't because his kill would probably been played off as a mafia kill, but again if you disagree with that feel free to argue.

I would like to know one thing because i might have missed it, but Wall-E did you ever post you reasons for voting sek?

[wolframnhart]

@CF_Riot

Sorry i honestly must have missed the first time you asked me that question. A couple of my suspicions have changed from yesterday, bbut nothing so valid that i am going to act upon them right now. I honestly am looking at Wall-E right now, and not extremely hard, but I find it odd that he votes someone but doesn't/hasn't listed the reasons why, nor have i really seen anyone ask him for them (unless they have and i missed that too). It is not a big thing, but just something i found odd thats all. And yes, the lack of night kills did change my opinions a bit, my recent post i thought made that part clear.

[wolframnhart]

@wolframnhart: I think we're with you...

Hello, Mr. Secretive. I see you're out to make friends. I'd like to hear those reasons you mentioned as soon as they're declassified.

@Wall-E: Welcome, welcome. Hope to see your reasoning become clear in due time.

And @Wall-E - I don't appreciate your reasons being kept secret. If you have a case against me, then bring it, otherwise unvote. I'm not going to sit here mute while you continue voting for me with zero justification.

@Artem: Good-bye.

@SilverPhoenix: Would you walk me through the analysis of night one you feel has most influenced your suspicions, please? Also, did you hear back from the mod on your little investigation? Would you care to share?

I feel so dumb when i see things like that, three, THREE, people have said something about Wall-E's vote with no reason posted and i either read them and they didn't register, or i skimmed them. Either way i am gonna were a dunce hat for the rest of the day

[wolframnhart]

So would you consider that a scummy move, a suspicious move, or are they one in the same to you? What's your stance on Sekinj? If you are considering Wall-E as a suspect, what's your opinion on the connections between the two? That is to say, do you think their alignments are the same, opposite, or have no correlation and why?

I think it is suspicious but not necessarily scummy, which is why i said it wasn't a big thing. I am unconvinced Sek is scum atm, the "connection" between the two could be more of a townie vs townie.

@CF_Riot Why are you so interested in everyone else's opinion?


@Germy
I understand where you are coming from and can't blame you, the reasoning behind me saying that it was weird Wall-E didn't post anything on his vote against Sek is only because I don't see why someone should be able to vote for no reason, and how is what i have said different from what Zade and Kair have said? Or Sek for that matter wantign to know why she was voted?

@Zade
you didn't make me feel bad, i just felt stupid for missing those posts and am glad someone pointed them out to me before i made myself even more of an ass later on down the road LoL.

[wolframnhart]

i would say conclusions personally.

[wolframnhart]

If a townie says they are not going to reveal their reasoning right away, it's better not to push them. If they're mafia, they won't say anything, anyway. It sounds like wolframnhart is trying to build suspicion on someone for this.

Again, what was your real reason for voting sekinj in the first place? And why did you feel the need to keep such reasoning secret?

Wall-E - you still never answered CF_Riot's question. Why did you vote sekinj? (Besides "he pinged my scumdar"). You specifically said you had a reason, and built a case.

And you didn't answer my question. If sekinj just "felt scummy" to you, why did you need to keep this to yourself when you voted?

Germy, you said that with me asking Wall-E about his reasons for voting Sek were suspicious, that along with the questioning of CF_Riot, i was becoming suspicious to you. Little bit later you start asking Wall-E the same line of questioning about his reasons and now there is nothing wrong with it?

[wolframnhart]

@CF_Riot

I am not sure i really am getting the case against Scigatt honestly, but i do think we should wait for a claim either way.

[wolframnhart]

What exactly is it about the scigatt case? I seem to be missing the big point(s) against him.

[wolframnhart]

@CF_Riot

Right now I am suspecting you due mainly to your constant questioning which you say is the way you play to feel people out, but i honestly don't see much actual use coming out of it. Also you seemed so upset that Sek didn't get lynched, you asked for three players to join you in voting Sek, even calling them by name, and as soon as it looked like scigatt would be lynched, you seemed to get panicky and try to call that wagon off (though i admit i get wanting a claim from a replacement). I still have an eye on Wall-E because i didn't/don't like the voting without explaining until after the fact, and even then there was nothing. I also have a suspicion on Germy. He has claimed a back up role, and perhaps he is not lying about that, but he has a vote on someone he has in the "neutral" zone and is saying he is for a scigatt lynch, but does not put his vote there.

[wolframnhart]

Wait i'm confused, since when does a roleblocker block a mafia kill or SK kill? Sk i might get because it is an ability.. but then again i guess the mafia kill is an ability too.. maybe i am just confused on the whole roleblocking part of it.

But the way i see it, either we lynch Nat due to SP's counter claim, though even he admits there might be two blockers, or we lynch artem/shanba who SP claims to have blocked which ended up leaving us with a saved person last night. If we lynch Shanba, we can find out if what SP claims is true, if we lynched Nat i guess that means we see that he was lying, and if he was then SP would be in trouble at night but if germy is his back up then germy assumes the role if i have that right. in which case shanba would be the lynch the next day seeing as SP was telling the truth.

Do i have that all right? Did i miss anything?

[wolframnhart]

I find it odd that SP says he blocked Shanba last night, hence the no vote, so he is voting Nat for claiming RB, yet Shanba says Nat is lying? Wouldn't Shanba try and refute Sp's claim or am i missing a big piece of the argument here?

[wolframnhart]

@wolframnhart: As has been pointed out by mykonian for one, it's more likely that the mafia kill was blocked by a doctor than the role-blocker at that point in the game.

If Shanba is town, then he can either confirm or not confirm that SilverPhoenix blocked him. Confirming would mean role-claiming, i.e. "I'm the cop and my night action was blocked." That would make both of them targets for the mafia, not just one. Also, it would cast suspicion on SilverPhoenix, which Shanba wouldn't want if he believes that Natirasha is lying. Being unable to confirm would mean that he's claiming vanilla. In that case, he doesn't know that SilverPhoenix is lying and he can't really argue that SilverPhoenix lies.

If Shanba is scum, then obviously he would have to claim a pro-town role to refute SilverPhoenix. Given our apparent knowledge of the set-up, that would be very, very risky, I think. It's also possible that if Shanba is scum that voting for Natirasha is a way of bussing someone who's a likely lynch.

@Wall-E and sekinj: I think you're both half right. What are you thanking me for, Wall-E?

@mykonian: If that happens, I submit an "I told you so" in advance, applicable to you, Kairyuu, the vig, and anybody who's voted for me for silly reasons.

Ok i think i am beginning to understand now, thank you.

[wolframnhart]

I have no objection to a popcorn style claim.

[wolframnhart]

Ok I am here guys, very long day at work and i tried to post from my phone but it looks like it didn't work since i am being asked to claim still.

I am a vanilla townie.

I really hope i have a regular day at work tomorrow so i can post up some more but for now i am about to pass out so night all.

[wolframnhart]

Why are we voting Zade again here? I thought Germy said he was going to block Cf_Riot? And why wouldn't we wait to see if Germy really says that is what he did, or if he switched targets and if so who.

[wolframnhart]

I agree with myko. I think CF Riot is a good play for tomorrow if Zade isn't scum.

@Wolf: Unless germy (or anyone else) actually dies, the block tells us absolutely nothing, as the scum are not required to submit a kill. I decided to suggest Zade as the play for today because I have been convinced of his scumminess since pg. 2, and would REALLY like to be right (and if I pursued a case for 33 pages and didn't manage to get the lynch I would be quite irritated). Plus Artem flipping scum (and the reaction to the proposed massclaim, which I forgot to mention in my first post today) gives us a whole wealth of information to work with, and it seems to point squarely to Zade being scum the way I see it.

Ok fair enough, but shouldn't we wait for Germy to give input before lynching?

[wolframnhart]

@Kairyuu

While i get the Zade lynch, in a way i find it odd and a little off putting that you are nearly begging to be allowed to hammer him. Now Zade could very well be scum, even if he says he is ok with being lynched to help the town (i have seen town do this and i am sure scum can say the same thing too) but are we focusing too much on one person? What if in some way shape or form we screw up tomorrow? Then what?

[wolframnhart]

vote Wall-E

I wanted to wait for Germy to give his input and i agree with him, I don't see much anything on a Zade lynch and would rather go a different route.

Also Myko brings a good point, where has sek been?

[wolframnhart]

The game from my perspective:

germy claims one of four sub-roles

it's revealed that there's an RB

germy claims RB backup and says to lynch me (?)

i'll fight this lynch to the bitter end... lynch someone less active please

good point, that or a last ditch effort to avoid a lynch.

[wolframnhart]

i can agree with waiting to hear from Sek, so i will hold off on voting until she arrives.

[wolframnhart]

being as germy will give us an official block target after sek chimes in i think it is ok to wait, and germy is right, past couple days have gone by pretty fast so lets just hold on, even if it doesn't matter.

[wolframnhart]

Sek has chimed in, now we should just wait to see who germy says he will be blocking.

[wolframnhart]

Well then, guessing Germy blocked Zade?

[wolframnhart]

vote Zade

Germy said he would block zade, zade was blocked and once again there was no kill, this should be over.

[wolframnhart]

if it is wrong why just hammer yourself there?

[wolframnhart]

i don't get it... if SP had blocked zade like he said then i thought that meant zade was the last scum.

Now the way i see it either germy or sek is scum. Germy claimed back up role, which could be taken as a risky claim, because if he was back up then i would think scum would have targeted him at some point and killed him off, but they didn't.

Now if we believe in Germy and follow his lead then that would mean Sek is the correct lynch today and we have won this. But as i said it could easily have been a trick by Germy. By leaving two confirmed townies alive it's just a matter of getting them to vote along with them.

Hmmm i need to think this out.

[wolframnhart]

If we lynch CF_Riot, I will block Scheherazade.

If we lynch someone else, I will block CF_Riot.

One of the reasons I wanted to wait for sekinj to post was to test a possible, though unlikely, theory.

There is

one

situation that might lead to a scum win, at this point, I think. If we get to lynch-or-lose and the real scum manages to convince the Town that

I

am scum, pulling a massive gambit. I wanted to look for any hints of such foreshadowing. I didn't see any.

And of course there is this post, where Germy set up this scenario. Now i can say these things because Germy has already proved I am town by blocking me and there being a kill that night and myo is a proven mason.

[wolframnhart]

SP blocked atrem/shanba - no kill

SP killed germy takes over role

shanba lynched saying "go team" very disappointed it seems

Now remember, scum aren't required to send in a kill. Here is where it gets interesting.

Germy blocks CF_Riot, no kill that night.

Wall-E is lynched, why wouldn't germy go after his blocked target, just to see if scum were trying to fake us out with a no kill or if he had picked the right person? Why wait on CF?

I am blocked and Kair dies, scum has to get rid of the masons and start "confirming" townies or else the scum get stuck with no one but confirmed townies.

CF_Riot lynched, and Zade blocked. Again no night kill.

Zade is lynched, and i am guessing Sek was blocked. No night kill.

Now Germy has two confirmed townies, because his blocks

do

mean something Sek. Either they mean he was lying about being a back up role blocker and was killing people off as he needed to, or he really is the back up role blocker and YOU are the last scum Sek, so to say they don't mean something even if he was playing us is not true at all.

[wolframnhart]

Ok so how does the SK theory work? I am trying to look at the formulas and figure it out, but my brain is stupid and i can't get it right it seems. Show me how there can be a serial killer if Germy is lying and i will gladly place my vote on Sek and apologize for doubting Germy.

[wolframnhart]

I see. Ok then thank you for clearing that up for me myko, sorry for the doubt Germy but when i am being lead blindly i like to know who my guide is

vote Sek

[wolframnhart]

Great game guys. Germy I apologize for doubting you there for a minute, but it was the setup that confused me i really couldn't figure out the percentages and how people were coming up with "Germy can't be scum on a gambit cuz there would have to be an SK" thing.