Mini 680: Portlandia- Game Over!

[chazworthington]

Vote: Farkshinsoup

Bloody spoonerisms

[chazworthington]

I have seen this done once before and the player claiming was town. What he has basically done is say if he is investigated, he will come up guilty. We currently have no way of knowing if there is a miller in the game or not. He is either telling the truth or he is scum. Either way he would come up guilty if investigated. Beyond that, there is a level of WIFOM involved (although there is far more advantage for town miller to claim this than lying scum). It is not impossible scum would do this, but less likely than the obvious answer which would have X as town miller.

So basically we treat X like any other player, except we can't rely on any investigation to clear/catch him.

[chazworthington]

Actually, since I'm at L-4, I'll claim: I'm a miller. I heard it's good practice to claim miller early if you are one.

Can you provide the thread where you heard it was good practice to claim miller early?

Vote Count:
(2)bionicchop2: Mr_Adams, farkshinsoup
(1)chazworthington: TheSweatpantsNinja
(1)farkshinsoup: chazworthington
(1)Mr. Avacado: bionicchop2
(1)X: Zazier
(1)YOUNG ERIC: Y.C
(1)ZazieR: X

Not Voting: Blitzer, q21, Mr. Avacado, YOUNG ERIC

Blitzer never picked up his role PM. Seeking replacement now.

[chazworthington]

if the vote count gets considerably high, I'll remove it. I'm not stupid. I won't kill somebody on a hunch, just gingerly lay a vote there forthe time being.

Unvote; Vote: Mr_Adams

Several of us have put forth questions to X regarding his claim. I'd like your opinion of each of his answers.

[chazworthington]

There are 3 votes on me. that's an uncomfortable situation at this point.

As it should be. If you answer my question, mine may move. If you dodge it, it is likely to stay.

[chazworthington]

unvote avacado;vote chaz

While I don't agree with Mr_Adam's hunch, I didn't see his vote on X as a scummy action. Out of the people voting for him, Chaz seems to be the most opportunistic.

Right now, all we have from Mr Adam is that his gut is telling him that he doesn't believe X. It is in the best interest of the town to force Mr Adam to define this further. Therefore, I've asked him some questions and backed it up with a vote.

Insinnuating that I'm being opportunistic while trying to get infomation is pretty poor, especially given some of the other votes on his wagon. Any reason you called me out on it? Or are you trying to keep Mr. Adams from answering? IGMEOY

[chazworthington]

unvote avacado;vote chaz

While I don't agree with Mr_Adam's hunch, I didn't see his vote on X as a scummy action. Out of the people voting for him, Chaz seems to be the most opportunistic.

Right now, all we have from Mr Adam is that his gut is telling him that he doesn't believe X. It is in the best interest of the town to force Mr Adam to define this further. Therefore, I've asked him

some

questions and backed it up with a vote.

You are misrepresenting the scale of events, both in your response to my vote and in your phrasing of question(s) to him. I have bolded the word 'some' in your quote above. Here is the 'one' question you asked him, which was also your first vote directed at him.

Several

of us have put forth questions to X regarding his claim. I'd like your opinion of each of his answers.

I bolded the word several because it means more than two, but not many. This would imply there was a series of questions and answers with 'X' and others. Here are the 2 questions:

One question for X though: Why wait until you had attracted a couple of votes, albeit random ones, before making the early miller claim? Why not claim miller in your first post?

Here is the first (2 part) question from q21.

Actually, since I'm at L-4, I'll claim: I'm a miller. I heard it's good practice to claim miller early if you are one.

Can you provide the thread where you heard it was good practice to claim miller early?

There was your question, which wasn't much of a question.

Now if you asked me for my opinion on his responses to those 2 questions, I wouldn't have one. Neither were very pressing questions and the answers were equally run of the mill.

First off, I'm not getting into semantics with you, which is what you're basing a fair part of your case against me. I typed 'some' thinking 'more than one'. This is a non issue.

Since Mr. Adams has indicated he's not going to answer any questions, there is minimal harm in what I'm about to type.

You don't find it odd that after X is questioned as to why they waited to claim miller, and later provides a link to a page that gave them theory, Mr Admas posts his vote for X saying he only has a feeling without addressing either of those points? I did. Hence the vote to get a response. I wanted to know what was driving that gut feeling. He could have even answered as you did that the questions were run of the mill. Hell, you even gave an answer without my asking. But Adam's didn't answer, and my vote stayed on him. I'm going to say again, there is nothing wrong with using a vote to force an answer.

You also say my question wasn't much of one, which is wrong. Assume X is scum and decides to try a fake miller claim, or a scum buddy suggests trying it. Then he has to lie about where he learned about claiming miller early. Hence, I wanted to know where he read that bit of theory. I wasn't expecting a "gotcha" type answer, but I felt it important to flush out the claim a bit.

Insinnuating that I'm being opportunistic while trying to get infomation is pretty poor, especially given some of the other votes on his wagon. Any reason you called me out on it? Or are you trying to keep Mr. Adams from answering? IGMEOY

Is KoC trying to keep you from answering?

Um... how, exactly? All he saying is that if Adams answers his questions, he'll consider unvoting him. Right now, Adams hasn't answered, so chaz hasn't unvoted...

The other 3 votes against Adam's made sense (regardless of me agreeing / disagreeing with the reasoning). Farkin expressed suspicion and followed it up later with a vote. X was the one being voted by Adam's and there is always a small amount of OMGUS when someone attacks you (if you know a case is false, you suspect the accuser). KoC came across as intentionally trying to increase pressure and the reasoning was based on new information (the unvote) which does look a little odd.

Your vote came with a question. You could have asked the question, then voted if he dodged it, but you chose the guilty until proven innocent route. I said your vote was opportunistic and I think you are trying to blend in. This does not imply your question shouldn't be answered.

This is particularly funny since KoC's vote was the one I was referring to as opportunistic. I've already answered the rest of this above.

[chazworthington]

First, I'm glad Mr. Adams is posting his thoughts. You're still basing a big part of your analysis in an OMGUS point of view, but its far better than before.

Alot of this is reading like a frustrated newbie. I'm going to do a re-read to see if that holds. But I want to address your comment on me:

chazworthington- DO NOT LIKE. was lead advicate of my lynching, and kept coming back to this "you haven't answered my question" As though he was trying to encourage more votes.

You hadn't answered my questions. Technically, you still haven't although the point is moot now. I've already posted why I asked them, and you've ignored that completely. They were not key questions posed to X, but they certainly were relevant to the story he is claiming. It would have been nice to get your opinion on record.

As for being the lead advocate of your lynching, that's a false perception on your part as best, and a poor strawman at worst.

Besides, I still don't see the harm in my putting a vote on the aledged miller is. It wasn't a lynching vote, infact, at the time, it was the ONLY vote. I really don't see scumminess there. Either you need to watch what mushrooms you eat, or your scum. (3)

The harm wasn't that you voted for him. It was that you were voting and only saying "I don't believe his claim". I was looking for you to clarify that. You chose to make a far bigger deal out it.


Add me to the side who doesn't want to see a quick lynch.

[chazworthington]

I think there is a decent case that Mr. Adams is town. although I may be drawing the wrong conclusions here. Post 82 sees him FoS myself, q21 and KoC. 30 minutes later he comes back and votes for KoC. So he was clearly thinking about the game and/or his post during that time. He does this again in post 165 when he posts his thoughts on KoC after mentioning he forgot to include him in his rundown. Again, he's clearly re-reading his posts after the fact. I tend to think he'd have been more careful if he was scum.

That being said, I do find it frustrating that he doesn't follow up discussion on any of my posts. However, he's also doing that with q21.

With that, I'm not liking TheSweatPantsNinja. Post 70 looks to be doing nothing but fanning the flames for a Mr. Adams lynch. It also takes him two days to decide to vote for Mr. Adams for his contenting boiling down to OMGUS. If you're that certain its a newbie scum tell, why wait that long?

Unvote: Mr. Adams
Vote: SPN

[chazworthington]

Seems like the Mr. Adams wagon is dissipating. That's too bad, cause he needs to die. I can't believe the "poor newbie" strategy is working. Funny how he's not so ready to die anymore - Hallelujah! He's come back to life! Maybe we can find his partner (or partners).

I don't believe the town is forgetting about him. But if we only seriously look at him today then we don't get much info. I've stated that I think he's town but if his actions later today or another day say otherwise I'm going to call him on it.

Sorry for the lack of posting inthe past couple of days. I'm going to re-read. Should have something posted tomorrow.

[chazworthington]

Apologies for lack ofposting recently, was busy in the planning/executing of the girlfriend's birthday. I'll be posting tonight.

[chazworthington]

Ugh, I think Xtoxm is at L-1. I'd prefer not to hammer him right now. Actually, I'd prefer if he unvotes, and answers the following:

@xtoxm: regarding post 241 - can you clarify which votes on Adams were crap, or are you saying everyone of them was? Do you believe there are scum amongst those votes?

I am a bit surprised at Xtoxm's 286, honestly I would have expected Adams to go that route. (no offense is meant with that statement)

Regarding Adams: you haven't done much this day aside from voting for people who've voted for you, commented on the votes you have, and voted for a lurker. What are your thoughts on KoC's case on Xtoxm? What do you think of the case against Zazier? Why vote for RBT when YC, SPN and myself also have low post counts in this game?

KoC is high on my scumlist. I don't like his 4th vote on Adams early on, and I really don't lke his post 208

I may well be interested in a SPN wagon if ZZR doesn't happen.

You bring up an interesting point on KOC, but i'm ok with my vote on ZZR

"If the wagon I'm currently pushing fails, I'll be more than happy to jump on the next convenient one! Or this one that's just being started!" You're spreading out so many different accusations, and agreeing with so many bandwagons it hurts. Scummy, much?

I don't see this as wagon hopping. I see it more as Xtoxm prefers Zaz, then SPN then KoC.

I'm not sold on the Zazier case. At the moment, I'd prefer not to vote for him.

I like my vote on SPN given that I still believe he was trying to fan the flames for an Adams lynch. He also wasn't doing much scum hunting, instead answering questions about general theory, etc. It's problematic that he's not posting at the moment, so I'll probably have to move my vote before the day is done.

Vote Count as of post 300
(6)Xtoxm: Y.C, Zazier, Knight of Cydonia, Farkshinsoup, Xtoxm, q21
(1)ZazieR:, bionicchop2,
(1)Mr_Adams: TheSweatpantsNinja,
(1)TheSweatpantsNinja: chazworthington
(1)Riceballtail: Mr_Adams
Not Voting: Riceballtail, X

7 votes to lynch.

[chazworthington]

While I review KoC's case and now the PYP3 game as well, I think there are a few things we need to do before the day ends.

First, we need to figure out what's going on with the prods to SPN or YC. Assuming everything is ok IRL, they need to chime in.

Second, I really want Adams to chime in what I stated in my last post. Looking it over, it wasn't really clear I was addressing him so I'll repeat it now.

@Adams: you haven't done much this day aside from voting for people who've voted for you, commented on the votes you have, and voted for a lurker. What are your thoughts on KoC's case on Xtoxm? What do you think of the case against Zazier? Why vote for RBT when YC, SPN and myself also have low post counts in this game?

[chazworthington]

I'm not saying all of them were, but:

Crap wagon => Crap votes

Thanks for the unvote, I appreciate it.

Do you think the Adams wagon was driven by scum or town? If scum, who on that wagon do you think is scum?

[chazworthington]

Still going over Xtoxm games. In the meantime, I beg the town not to hammer until we know what's going on with SPN or YC, and Adams responds to my post.

At the very least, I want Adams answering my questions before N1. We have a few days still.

Regarding the jester concerns: Agreed that Xtoxm might be one. But I'm paranoid about jesters in general. Having not played many games on this site, I'll defer to what the rest of the town thinks.

[chazworthington]

This is an incomplete list of Xtomx's completed games, but it's a far better sample size than the two we've been presented. If someone else wants to finish this list before tomorrow evening that would be great, otherwise I'll finish it then.

Newbie 521 Was Town Was Lynched
Said he respected the decision
Joked about not wanting to be in a long game, joked that he was mafia Admitted he was a newbie in this game, might be hard to apply this game to now


Newbie 528 Was town Was not lynched Replaced in
No aggressive posts


Doctor Who Mafia 2 WAs town Was not lynched Replaced in
posts 2269, 2275 and 2277 are all aggressive


Newbie 555 Was town Was lynched Replaced in
Post 111, wants to self vote as he believes he is the lynch for the day


Newbie 553 Was town Was NKed


Newbie 565 Was town Survived Replaced in
No aggressive posts

Open 48 Was wolf Game Cancelled
No aggressive posts


Weather Mafia Was town Was lynched
votes for himself post 537

I've got at least two games where he's voted for himself when he's believed he was the lynch and was town. There may very well be games when he was scum and did the same thing, as this list isn't complete. Again, if someone else wants to tackle this during the day to complete, all the better. If not, I'll get it done tomorrow evening.

I will not vote for Xtomx based on his voting for himself at this point. In light of this, I continue to be highly suspicious of KoC, although I recognize the problem of voting for him now that he is away until after the deadline. Time to review the XtomX wagon.

Oh, and Mr. Adams needs to answer my latest set of questions to him. We need to get his opinion on the record before this day ends.

[chazworthington]

I haven't seen anything to change my mind. I'm still waiting for some of our lurkers and for Adams.

Chaz, I'm impressed with all of your work, but as I've stated before, the self vote is not the only reason I think Xtoxm is scum. For me, that was the icing on the scumcake (scumcake...yummm). Scum certainly have compelling reasons to self vote and end the day early. I think that's what was going on here.

Also, Chaz, don't you think that Xtoxmscum would be aware of his own "meta"? If you want to make the case that his self vote is a null-tell, go ahead. IMO, plenty of other reasons to string him up.

This is a good point, so instead of picking up where I left off last night, I went the other way to see if that came up. I saw no instance of Xtomx bringing up his meta in any of the completed games I looked at, but again, the list is incomplete.

While the exercise isn't finished, I've read enough to believe for now that his self vote was town frustration and not an attempted scum hammer. I'm not sold on the case for xtomx at the moment either. At any rate, in a game where we've got two players who probably need to be replaced, a third who's not commenting by their own admission, a 4th who's gone until after the deadline and a 5th who has been quiet and mostly non commital beyond events that concern him directly, the last thing I want to do D1 is lynch someone who's posting alot. This doesn't mean that if the posting doesn't make sense I won't call him on it.

* - having said that, thank you for answering my questions, Mr. Adams. It was appreciated.

I would support a Zazier lynch, although I don't like the case against him nearly as much as the case against KoC.

@ Zazier: it's entirely possible I missed questions directed to me. Please let me know.

[chazworthington]

@Chaz - I can go with a Zazier lynch, but I don't see KoC as scummy. At this point we have one RL day before the day could be cut off at any moment... if we're going to lynch someone we need to be fairly quick about it.

Agreed that we need to decide somewhat soon. I'm willing to move from SPN to Zaz. I'm also ok with lynching RBT due to the seemingly active lurking.

[chazworthington]

Fair enough, for now.

Unvote: SPN
Vote: Zazier

[chazworthington]

Hmmm... I'm not seeing this Zazier thing. Zazzy made it clear that if his questions were answered he'd start posting more, and that he's not posting due to lack of things to respond to. To be honest, I'm more inclined to believe that the people who placed votes on Zazzy are more likely to be scum than Zazzy himself...

What has led you to reverse your opinion of Zazier since you last posted?


Everyone, we're in the "x" portion of the 3n+X days, so we need to make a lynch happen soon.

[chazworthington]

First, thanks to the mod for extending the deadline.

Second, I'll also plead for BC to stay. Or at least make your decision after replacements for YC and SPN are done.

Third: the two cop claims. I need to re-read both players, I think. At the moment, I see no reason for q21 to claim cop as scum, unless he's trying to capitalize on the current Zaz wagon. My opinion may change on a re-read.

Real quick question: Any chance we're dealing with two cops in this game? Does the presence of a miller factor into it? I'm assuming one of Zaz and q21 is scum at this point, but I don't know if that is a safe assumption.

I'd encorage everyone to re-read the thread twice: first under the assumption of guilt on one player, then again under the assumption of guilt on the other.

[chazworthington]

Hmmm... I'm not seeing this Zazier thing. Zazzy made it clear that if his questions were answered he'd start posting more, and that he's not posting due to lack of things to respond to. To be honest, I'm more inclined to believe that the people who placed votes on Zazzy are more likely to be scum than Zazzy himself...

What has led you to reverse your opinion of Zazier since you last posted?


Everyone, we're in the "x" portion of the 3n+X days, so we need to make a lynch happen soon.

My vote was a vote to get the lurkers attention. now it's turning to a bandwagon.

And thanks for reminding me

unvote

I don't understand your answer. Your vote was on RBT, I believe. I was asking about your change in opinion on Zaz

Also, I'm going to

Unvote

while I try to sort through the duel cop claim.

[chazworthington]

Ok.

I definately believe Q21 over Zaz. I'm up for lynching Zaz today.

Unvote Vote Zazier

X is just being stupid now, I don't think responding directly to his post is worthwhile.

With the deadline extended, lynching today is not good. Having two new sets of eyes (assuming neither are scum) to consider the claims would also be good.

[chazworthington]

Ok.

I definately believe Q21 over Zaz. I'm up for lynching Zaz today.

Unvote Vote Zazier

X is just being stupid now, I don't think responding directly to his post is worthwhile.

With the deadline extended, lynching today is not good. Having two new sets of eyes (assuming neither are scum) to consider the claims would also be good.

If by today you mean Day 1, we should definatley lynch.

Even if it is only a obvtown VT claim that some idiots refusing to believe isn't scum, as much as I hate to say it.

Agreed. I meant today IRL not D1

[chazworthington]

Wow, your right... I remembered posting something to the affect of "Zazier is even more worthless [in this game] than myself" and assumed that that was where my vote lay...

Good. So again, I'm going to ask why in post 333 you thought Zaz was scum and then in post 346 you didn't like the Zaz wagon.

Regarding X's suggestion: Mr. Adams is correct. The best case senario in this instance (assuming only one cop) is for both to come back tomorrow with a gulity on his other. The worst case would be for one to be a godfather. Further, this plan would potentially give scum info as to whether there is a doc or not.

Assuming one cop, we're at the best case scenario NOW, although it soulds like Zaz is implynig that his PM leaves open the possibility of there being more than one cop? Correct me if I'm wrong.

I am currently leaning toward Zaz as the lynch, but I want to finish my re-read AND I want the replacements to opine as well.

[chazworthington]

That's all that I have to say right now. I can't defend myself as I have explained everything of which you attacked me and I can't work on any cases as nobody is willing to answer my questions.

It would be great to hear who you think is scum and why.

Vote Count as of post 425
(4)ZazieR: q21, Riceballtail, Xtoxm, X
(3)Xtoxm: G-Force, Zazier, Knight of Cydonia
(1)Mr_Adams: TheSweatpantsNinja,

Not Voting: Farkshinsoup, bionicchop2, chazworthington Mr_Adams

7 votes to lynch.

Let's give a warm welcome to G-Force, who replaces Y.C!

[chazworthington]

unvote

There are several possibilities here(I may be missing some):
1) q21, zaz and G-Force are all cops

2) G-Force is a cop and one of q21 and zaz are a cop

3) G-Force COULD be scum making a cop claim to save zaz, afterall its already been stated that the jump from 2 to 3 is more believeable than the jump from 1 to 2

#3 strikes me as remote at the moment. But I think it should be out there. I think the chances of all three not being scum are less then the chance that exactly one is scum: zaz was making some real scummy posts before the third cop claim.

We might try to figure things out a bit: what if all three cops investigated X N1? It won't undercover a paranoid cop, but it would reveal if we have a naive/insane cope (although we won't know which it is). There are several sticky assumptions here that might make this a bad idea: i) we're assuming X is indeed a miller, ii)we're assuming none of the claimed cops are scum, iii)scum will likely target one of the cops. Pretty much putting it out there to see if someone can turn it into a better idea.

I agree with the list provided by BC as a reasonable one to consider for D1, although I want to re-read fark before signing off on his exclusion. Of the four listed at the moment, I'd prefer

RBT
KoC
Adams
Xtoxm

Also agreed that we shouldn't automatically rule out iceman before he's posted.

[chazworthington]

I think KoC and Adams are both scummy, neither for extremely drastic reasons. I think keeping KoC around longer will be more helpful than keeping Mr_Adams, because KoC has contributed to discussion in more productive way. As in, Mr_Adams could be scum, but if he's town, he's distracting.

In that respect though, shouldn't Adams be easier to read than KoC with respect to scum tells and hence should be kept around longer? Just a thought.


Also, I'm the one who suggested testing the cops on the miller. Xtoxm countered by saying they should be tested on a vanilla townie instead.

I'd still like to lynch RBT today. We've got most people talking at this point aside from ice, and I've made the mistake of tolerating this before. I don't like the xtoxm vote. I'm not thrilled with Adams either but could swallow it easier. Agreed that KoC is talking and contributing but I still liked the case against him earlier.

vote: RBT

Also, icemanE is posting in other games and not here. That's a problem.

Would love to hear Zaz's current thoughts on the situation.

[chazworthington]

I agree with KoC, I don't like our cops steered by the town, I think the less we all know about their intentions, the better.

QFT. And I repeat, investigating a claimed VT is not necessarily the best idea...it could be, depending on their play, but not because they have claimed VT.

I don't like that we're so rushed, but I think we all agree that someone has to hammer tommorrow. No lynch is no fun and no good.

Ok, so we let each of our claimed cops decide who to investigate? Fark's point about not having concrete data until D3 is noted.

If so, then I can reluctantly hammer early Friday morning. I'm not around between 8am-5pm EST tomorrow. I'm not thrilled with today's lynch but I recognize a lynch is better than no lynch.

[chazworthington]

This is ridiculousness. Are you going to trust anything these cops say unless their sanity is cleared up? If so, why? Are we simply going to lynch whomever they target tomorrow simply to decide whether or not they're sane? Isn't that more of a waste? Why aren't you thinking rationally?

I think Fark is saying that by the time we figure out what the sanity is for the cops, they'll be dead.

So it looks like our choices are: investigate a claimed role by all and probably lose a cop in the night or have them all choose their target and give us some info that will probably be more useful around D4 or so and probably lose one cop in the night.

This assumes we don't have a doctor.

[chazworthington]

This is ridiculousness. Are you going to trust anything these cops say unless their sanity is cleared up? If so, why? Are we simply going to lynch whomever they target tomorrow simply to decide whether or not they're sane? Isn't that more of a waste? Why aren't you thinking rationally?

I trust two of them to various degrees. I don't trust one of them at the moment.

I don't think we need to lynch based on the results of the investigation. I do think it's good to know who they investigated and what the result is. And use that info later in the game.

[chazworthington]

Whatever, guys.

mod - retract my deadline request

.

Clearly this group isn't going to listen to reason. Or spell guarantee correctly.

I'm more than willing to listen to counter arguments to the posts I've just made.

[chazworthington]

I'm willing to go with what the town thinks is best. But letting the cops choose their own targets is ten times more useless than clearing them and getting at least one useful report out of them. Now that they've all claimed, it seems clear that minimizing the damage seems the best route, to me, but sure, let's have them randomly shoot in the dark and come up with what will most likely be useless reports. And by my plan, we'll have useful results on day 3 at the latest - how in god's name can you argue, chaz, that getting useful results on day 4 is more advantageous?

Because two of them won't be around by D3 unless we have a doc. So testing them doesn't help us much because we might know the sanity, but we didn't put it to use.

Now instead we let them do their own investigations. We still have two dead cops by D3 assuming no doc, but we've got 3 results on potentially 3 different people. We won't know the sanities but its another element to ocnsider when reviewing people later in the game.

[chazworthington]

I'm explaining myself poorly. I'll try again.

Based on Fark's post, the problem with having the cops test their sanity on X (or other claimed role) is as follows:
D2 - one cop dead, two left. If at this point we can conclude the sanity of a specific cop, that's the one that gets targeted N2
D3 We've got one cop left and might not know the sanity. He's dead N3

Ths assumes no doc and that all claimed cops are indeed cops.

Now, assume the cops investigate on their own.
D2 comes: one cop dead. Wehave two investigations on hopefully two different people. We don't use that info D2.
D3 comes, two cops dead. One more investigation.

We only have imperfect info on 3 players. But we may be able to grind out some results by saying, hypothetically: "Cop A got two gulities on player B and C. These two don't appear to be a scum pair. Cop A is naive"

Again, this assumes we don't have a doc and all claimed cops are cops.

It's not nearly as useful as a confirmed sane cop claim, but I don't see how we're going to get the sane cop to survive.

Basically, it comes down to this: the town hopes we have a doc and we use N1 to try and ID a sane cop or the town lets the cops make their investigations and we use it as one more piece of evidence when looking at players rather than the smoking gun.

[chazworthington]

I guess so, chaz, but I really see many more problems and confusions arising from having the cops investigate randomly without knowing their sanities than I do from my plan. Realistically, we'll only have two cops tomorrow as it is, as even if there IS a doc, he only has a 33% chance of picking and protecting the right cop from a NK. Then, we have two reports which are initially useless. I don't see how verifying sanities isn't the best way to go -

we will have one totally solid report, guaranteed on day 3,

instead of three reports which have no bearing.

If I'm in the minority here, chances are I'm wrong. I'm speaking only from my own experience.

bolded is mine. I think I agree with you if we have a doc. If we don't, the scum is going to know which cop to target N2.

I don't claim to know what to do here either: until Fark's post I was looking at it the way you are.

If others are up and want to chime in, that would be good.

[chazworthington]

Hmm, my thoughts on the issue were that, even if we had a confirmed insane cop, we'd know he was insane based on his investigation result, which would in essence turn him into a sane cop.

But beyond that I agree with bio on the need to focus primarily on scumhunting. Nonetheless our cops are an aside that should be utilized for maximum potential.

Agreed on the bold, but the problem is the scum will know this as well.

Agreed with bio that this game should be built around scum hunting

[chazworthington]

ice, do you want to discuss more, or should I hammer?

[chazworthington]

Ok.

Unvote: RBT
Vote: Mr. Adams

Doing this to ensure a lynch today.

[chazworthington]

Before the others give their results, do we want to request the cops go in a certain order? For instance, I'd rather hear Zaz first.

[chazworthington]

First off, next Sunday-Tuesday I'm going ot have very limited access to the internet. I'll try to post, but can't promise anything.

Regarding the activity with Xtomx, I still believe he is acting exactly like his meta. I will re-read his posts and review/complete the meta of him but as of now I don't support his lynch.

I don't like Zaz voting for Xtomx based soley off her result.

Also, I don't like icemanE pushing the two gulities on Xtomx.

[chazworthington]

I think we can use our powers of deduction here.

I find it hard to believe that we would have 3 cops, with 2 of them giving misleading and useless results. It would be way too unbalanced in favour of scum. This of course, assumes that q21 was a "useful" cop with a sane or insane sanity. If he was naive or paranoid, that would make it even more unlikely

.

That having been said, bionic is right, if all you're going by is the investigation results, then there is an equal chance that xtoxm is town or scum. But, if we want to find out, then we have to lynch Xtoxm to verify their sanities and/or cop claims.

I don't think you have to "throw out" the investigation results, but you should not trust them as the main reason for lynching xtoxm.

I'm not so sure about the bolded part. One sane, one insane and one naive/paranoid would be an interesting mix. I grant that for me to be right about xtomx that would mean q21 was the sane cop.


Also, one other note. Assuming no doc and 3 mafia we're at LYLO tomorrow if we don't get things right today. A quick lynch today makes tomorrow that much harder.

[chazworthington]

Also, I don't like icemanE pushing the two gulities on Xtomx.

I don't like the way chaz is defending the scummiest player AGAINST TWO GUILTIES.

And I can't believe no one here has taken anything away from Adams flipping town. I've quoted ice here, but this goes for KoC as well.

I'll agree that xtoxm is acting scummy but I've posted a partial meta on him and he's acted that way as town. I think BC had the best label for it in that he thought at one time that it was a non tell. I do want to complete the meta on him.

BC has addressed most of what I'm about to say as well, but your post I'm quoting is emphasing the results of cops whose sanity isn't known. Do you really trust both G-Force and Zaz completely? Because Zaz was acting far scummier than Xtomx was D1. And her play today hasn't been stellar either.

Another point is that we've got Xtomx at L-2 right now. I don't want this day to go quickly. Even if Xtomx is today's lynch we need to look at other people. Because my fear is that he is town and we're in LYLO tomorrow

The only point that people have brought up that makes me sway from my stance of Xtomx is his refusal to play at this point. See my next post for comments on that.

[chazworthington]

chaz, are you telling us that xtoxm withdrawing from the game is something that he's done before as town?

This is a fair question. I think there might have been a game where he did something like that, but I don't recall his alignment. I need to go back to my notes.

I don't have the time to do this kind of meta research on anyone, so I'm just going by what I'm reading in this game. But there are so many things about xtoxm's behaviour that are anti-town.

I don't understand why a townie would self-vote when under serious pressure, or why, when presented with any sort of challenge, they would hurl insults instead of trying to provide some rationale, or why, when they start to look like the second day lynch, they remove themselves completely from the game and stop posting? Let's say xtoxm is town, then why not put up some kind of fight to stay alive, why not keep scum hunting, why not try at least to put out there who he thinks the "real" scum is?

The self voting he has done before as town. I approve of the stuff I bolded here and its the way I hope I play. Not to kick a dead townie while he was down, but Adams responded to his wagon with a more mild form of this.

Again, the comments about being removed from the game are valid and I'll go back to look for them.

Here's my take on him: he's scum who came under suspicion early for play that he feels should have just been read as "aggressive" and "pro-town". Since coming under that pressure, he's pretty much folded like a house of cards, and I'd argue that the only reason he missed the lynch on Day 1 is that he has a history of playing like this.

Anyways, the only person who hasn't checked in today is Rice, who was V/LA until today. I've had a vaguely anti-town read on him, as usual, so I'm eager to hear what he thinks about what's going on so far.

Obviously I disagree with you on xtomx, but I agree on RBT.


@Everyone: To avoid xtomx self-hammering, I'd ask for a few days to complete the meta before anyone else votes for him, since he's at L-2.

[chazworthington]

I'm back. Sorry the limited access ran longer than expected.

First, I hope to have the complete Xtomx meta up by Saturday evening. Sorry for the delay.

@KoC, Ice, X and Fark: You are all pushing for an XtomX lynch very hard. With the exception of the cop's sanities, I'm seeing pretty much the same argument made against Mr. Adams. I'd like to hear from each of you why you believe you're correct this time. Further, I want to know who else you think is scum. Because if you're wrong about Xtomx, as I think you are, then we're at lylo tomorrow. Are none of you worried about that?

Note: I've listed these four in the order I feel they are pushing XtomX from hardest to lightest. If we have scum in this group my guess would be ice or KoC, although given how hard both of them are pushing I don't think both are.

[chazworthington]

My schedule is blowing up again. I should be better after Wednesday. Apologies to all.

You were more interested in lynching RBT, who hasn't contributed, but could potentially be another living character on our side. So, what questions do you want answered by RBT?
And also, why haven't you asked them if you suspect him?

Sorry, missed this before. I was interested in lynching RBT D1 due to everyone's consensus that she's hard to read and lurks alot. I've got more to say here but it involves an on-going game and I want to check with the mod what I'm allowed to say versus what I'm not allowed to say. That and the town was focused on Adams at the time and I didn't believe him to be scum.

She was also a good candidate in the list of four because I believed Adams and XtomX to be town.

Those are the reasons I went after RBT D1. As for not asking questions, she's gotten lost in the triple cop claim/investigation. I'm more interested in asking questions to the people who I perceive are pushing the wagon.


That said, with respect to RBT, I would like to know what changed betwen posts 607 and 614, and only eight hours apart. 607 reads like she's pushing the XtomX wagon, and 614 has her listing Ice and KoC as possible scum. Why not mention that in 607? Nothing really happened between them.

[chazworthington]

Sorry for the lengthy absence. Long story made short: I'm co-producing a community theatre show that opened last Friday. The problem was the set was still getting built that Friday AND Saturday. Not really time for anything else.

FoS: Chaz

for being mysterious. Perhaps not your fault, but it is a little odd. Once you're allowed to talk, I expect to hear something significant. Also, I don't see the big difference between 607 and 614.

I haven't asked the mod yet, but if you searched my games (there aren't many) you should see the lesson I learned. As for 607 and 614, the former read to me as RBT pushing along the XtomX lynch, while 614 is rather the opposite.


@BC: I'm not so sure we want to limit ourselves to two people to lynch today just yet. We did that late yesterday and we've got one person on the list both days. I think the heat needs to be spread around more. Having said that, I would support an iceman lynch.

@G-Force: My issue with Zaz is her behavoir D1. She disappeared once the pressure was off her. Then there is this:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 55#1272755

This is a Newbie game Zazier replaced into. The page I linked to (if I did it right) has her claiming cop when she was really a mafia roleblocker. The way she does it in that thread feels very similiar to her post in this thread.

No-lynch is better than lynching the cop
I'm impressed by your scumdar, xtoxm

She didn't answer the PM question until q21 did. And her post 411 in this thread is scummy as can be, assuming a mafia roleblocker is in play.

As for D2, she came out voting for XtomX confident in her sanity.

That's my problem with Zaz. Of course, we need to wait for a replacement now, but I find her play extreamely scummy.

Lastly,

FOS: Fark

Popping in and out of the thread to tell us where you are without any content is a scumtell in my book.

Actually, not lastly as I still owe Fark an answer to XtomX's previous games. I'll find it in the next day or so, but if someone's looking for something to do and is getting ansy there are plently of XtomX games that I didn't reference in my previous post

[chazworthington]

And her post 411 in this thread is scummy as can be, assuming a mafia roleblocker is in play.

I would imagine there is no mafia role blocker based on the information we have.

Both claimed cops have investigation results. I would imagine one would be blocked if there was a RB.

My post was worded poorly. I meant that Zaz was using the assumption of a mafia roleblocker in post 411.

[chazworthington]

I wasn't overly concerned with who said it, just pointing it out really. I didn't think the comment was scummy, but I wanted to address the line of thinking that there may be a role blocker.

Why is that?

I guess I don't have a concrete reason for that. I generally like setup speculation to be confined to information that might help find scum. When I see speculation and I feel it doesn't apply, I like to point out why it is not likely. Sometimes they end up meaningless, but other times I can use some end-game deduction piecing together conclusions I come to throughout the game. This particular instance probably fits more into the 'meaningless' category.

But it wasn't meaningless: Zaz was asking the thread to assume there was a mafia roleblocker to avoid being lynched D1 when we had q21 and Zaz as the only two cops. Between this post and your comments on my previous posts, its starting to feel like you're trying to draw attention away from that point.

[chazworthington]

OK, looking back, the more I look at Xtoxm's defense of Adams on D1, the less I like it. I said on D1 that I doubted that scum would protect their buddy that blatantly, but now that Adams has flipped town... it looks like buddying up to me. I said it before, and I'll say it again, I saw nothing that made Adams obv-town, as Xtoxm claims. Furthermore, Xtoxm has not answered the questions I asked before leaving. For these reasons, I feel that Xtoxm is the correct lynch today. Gaining information on cop sanities will just be a nice bonus.

Not for nothing, but I said D1 that I thought Adams was newb town and wasn't surprised when he flipped as such. If Xtomx is lynched, I won't be surprised should he flip town as well. I love how certain players are completely ignoring a meta here. And that no one else is filling in the gaps in that meta that I haven't gotten to.

I think the scum as follows:

1. Pretty sure Zaz is scum. I've made my case agsinst her already and it's only stronger now that she's backed out of this one but still posting in other games.

2. One of KoC and Ice is probably scum. I'm leaning toward Ice right now since that's who else was on the block with XtomX when Zaz left.

3. The last scum is probably among Fark, RBT and G-Force. A reasonable case can be made against any of them. A fourth possibility, but more remote, is BC.

As requested by BC, I'll try to have a PbP case made by this town tomorrow.


Non Game stuff for X:

The Play is The Importance of Being Ernest, and it's a beast of a set. Act One is your basic set build with flats, ecept the wings pivot inward so that during the first intermission we can roll two eight footers from off stage left and one 14 footer that folds into itself from off stage right onto the stage. It connects to form the outside of the mansion for the Garden Scene in Act II, then flips to go inside the mansion for Act III. Thank god we've got the entire intermission to get everything done.

[chazworthington]

Bio, if you don't see why Xtoxm is the scummiest thus far REGARDLESS of the reports, you need to read the game, not have someone lay out a PBPA for YOUR convenience.

Most thought the same of Adams.

Xtoxm has played scummily for sure, and he blew up and self-voted himself which I really don’t like at all.

You know those metas that you don't like? They show that Xtoxm has done that often when town. This is the reason I'm not voting Xtomx today.


Now, as we're clearly at an impass here, I'm going to ask you who else you think is scum. Because all you've done today is push the xtoxm lynch.

[chazworthington]

I'm also going to disregard all of the meta analysis on Xtoxm. (I wish I'd done the re-read before I posted 639) It's a huge null-tell. Here's why:

Xtoxm, when he replaced in, must have recognized immediately that he has played with several of the players in this game, including bionic, who knows him well enough to say this:

I have completed 2 games with him (I think) and am in 3-4 games with him now. Since I am in my 16th game on the site, that is a high percentage for him to be involved in.

He also has a distinctive play style, so he would know that if he was scum, he couldn't just fly under the radar. He said this:

I haven't been watching my own meta as such, I am simply aware of it

and this:

I haven't played anything like my fucking scum meta, this is the most fucking pro-town i've been in ages.

You are idiots.

He also said this early on:

RBT has played with me before and knows this is how I play. Even though you admit you know this, FOSing me is ridiculous.

I believe Bionic has seen a good example of similar play of mine as town...Razz

So being aware of his own meta, and also being aware that many players would call him on it if he started acting "off" by his own standards, it's clear that any arguments for or against Xtoxm based on his meta will quickly devolve into a huge steaming pile of WIFOM.

Your argument, I think, says that since Xtomx knows his meta and knows that Xtomx knew players, specifically BC, from previous games that any attempt to compare his play in this game from previous ones is WIFOM.

My comment to that is that in all the games I've seen he hasn't changed his meta. Back when he voted for himself, my read has been that it was legit frustration. This is exactly what I've seen from him in several completed games. Despite this, you want to call it WIFOM.

The other thing that your post makes pretty clear is that BC has played with Xtomx the most here. I think he's a good place to start when considering Xtomx's actions. There does need to be some consideration at that point on the possibility of an Xtomx, BC scumpair, however.

That being said, a meta is no excuse for your specfic case against him.

[chazworthington]

Here's the first part of the conversation.

And her post 411 in this thread is scummy as can be, assuming a mafia roleblocker is in play.

I would imagine there is no mafia role blocker based on the information we have.

Both claimed cops have investigation results. I would imagine one would be blocked if there was a RB.

My post was worded poorly. I meant that Zaz was using the assumption of a mafia roleblocker in post 411.

I wasn't overly concerned with who said it, just pointing it out really. I didn't think the comment was scummy, but I wanted to address the line of thinking that there may be a role blocker.

And here's the second part: I'm overlapping your post 699

I wasn't overly concerned with who said it, just pointing it out really. I didn't think the comment was scummy, but I wanted to address the line of thinking that there may be a role blocker.

Why is that?

I guess I don't have a concrete reason for that. I generally like setup speculation to be confined to information that might help find scum. When I see speculation and I feel it doesn't apply, I like to point out why it is not likely. Sometimes they end up meaningless, but other times I can use some end-game deduction piecing together conclusions I come to throughout the game. This particular instance probably fits more into the 'meaningless' category.

But it wasn't meaningless: Zaz was asking the thread to assume there was a mafia roleblocker to avoid being lynched D1 when we had q21 and Zaz as the only two cops. Between this post and your comments on my previous posts, its starting to feel like you're trying to draw attention away from that point.

I am trying to draw attention away from something Zazier said by commenting that I don't think there is a role blocker? How does that work exactly? Wouldn't the simple act of quoting and commenting be counterproductive to this end goal of distracting from it? Why again would I care if people remember Zazier asking the thread to assume there was a mafia roleblocker? I can add it to the bottom of every post I make if you feel it is somehow critical to the progress of the game.

You responded to my initial posting about Zaz and a roleblocker by saying you didn't think there was a roleblocker. I recognized my sentence as poorly constructed and said that Zaz was making an assumption of a roleblocker in 411. What I'm trying to say here is that she had to assume a roleblocker to find a reason for people not to vote for her. And that's a stretch. Your response to that is you weren't concerned about the roleblocker comment.

Am I missing your point? Are you missing mine? Do you think Zaz's mentioning of a mafia roleblocker in 411 is fine? Because I'm saying its not, and that's the point I'm trying to make.

[chazworthington]

Not the best PbP, but it's a start.

iceman post 649

Three cops

is

a bit difficult to wrap your head around... but I'm still not convinced that disregarding their reports is a smart avenue to follow.

iceman post 710

My position hasn't changed. Cop reports aside I still think Xtoxm should be lynched today.

Aside from taking credit for X's defense of you in 668, you are pushing the Xtomx lynch from both sides. And you're doing nothing to support your case other than dismissing meta analysis.

I've reviewed some of KoC's games and noted several instances of him pushing hard when he thinks he has scum. I don't see that nearly as much for you. Between this and SPN's goading of the Adam's wagon, I'm going to

vote: icemanE

[chazworthington]

That being said, a meta is no excuse for your specfic case against him.

I'm not sure I understand this sentence.

It means that in spite of my comments regarding xtomx's meta, I want to hear Xtomx's response your game specific comments.

Also, based on an updated meta, I may have to revise my opinions about xtomx.

[chazworthington]

I think he's saying that it's okay for me to be going so psychco on Xtoxm, because frankly, that's what I do. You, it just doesn't fit meta. Which, to be fair, is kind of true.

That's pretty close. You seem to be much more aggressive when you're town. Of course, most of the scum meta I had for you is when you were new to this site, (though not to mafia) so it may have changed.

@iceman: I'll go back and review you to see if I'm mistaken. As mentioned above, I'm starting to question if I'm right about xtomx.

[chazworthington]

Everyone needs to stop voting now. Assuming three scum, we are at lylo. It would be good for everyone to unvote

@afatchic: Why do you believe there are four cops?

@mod: Are scum allowed to pass?

[chazworthington]

Everyone needs to stop voting now. Assuming three scum, we are at lylo. It would be good for everyone to unvote

Dang, i got two games mixed up. i just replaced into two different games, and in the other scum was lynched day 1. So i was thinking one scum was lynched, and i found the other, so there was only one left. Either way, to me he is confirmed scum, so I'm not unvoting.

@afatchic: Why do you believe there are four cops?

Becuase three is just a random number. i am expecting there are four cops, one of every sanity.

So to be clear: even though everyone hasn't posted yet in this thread, you're voting in spite of the fact we may be in lylo? And you've got no reason to suspect a 4th cop other than gut?

@iceman: the above goes for you too, only more so. You'll also note that the meta evidence you dismissed as being unreliable was right.

@x: the above is also directed at you, but to a lesser extent.

I'm ready to vote for afatchic once everyone checks in.

[chazworthington]

I'm almost certain that chaz is scum. Why are you freaking out about two votes? Especially if you think the cop is scum... for some reason...

You are assisting in rushing a lynch through at lylo. Not everyone has posted yet. Even if afatchich is right, we need to get people's reactions on record. Zaz's play was incredibly scummy and she's still playing her other games. If RBT is lynched at the end of the gday fine, but lets not set up a situation where scum can pile onto her wagon with the thread open in under 24 ours.

It should also be noted that I've been on RBT's case since D1. My two main problems here are: i) afatchic has the taint of Zaz on him and ii) we're rushing a vote in what is most likely lylo. That's not good for the town

@afatchic: I've already been thinking along the lines of passing. Hence my question to the mod about whether the mafia can pass at night.

[chazworthington]

And by that I mean your predecessor claimed cop. We have two cops verified and I'm not going to speak for everyone but I'm a little iffy on there being three cops.

Good, then you share my suspicion of how Zaz played and will be wary of what afatchic says

I'm cool lynching RBT today.

vote: RBT

Oh.

I'm almost certain that chaz is scum. Why are you freaking out about two votes? Especially if you think the cop is scum... for some reason...

Actually in reflection I really don't like the sound of "let's all pretend i really am the cop, and not just a scum trying to pull a fast one..." so I guess I will unvote for a minute.

unvote

While I'm obviously happier with this point of view change, why wasn't this noticed before? Espcially before you voted?

[chazworthington]

The other things we need to start doing is looking at the voting histories. There's been very little of that so far, but we've got two days of data now.

[chazworthington]

Chaz why in the heck would you vote for a cop with a guilty... thats terrible.

I made the mistake in Normal 83 of ignoring the play of a player that was replaced. I would prefer not to do it again. The fact that Zaz left this game only around the time that the Xtomx wagon began losing steam Day 2 is a very strong scum tell.


Moving on to the vote counts:


Looking over the final D1 vote counts, we have the following:

(7)Mr_Adams: icemanE, q21, G-Force, bionicchop2, X, Riceballtail, chazworthington
(2)Xtoxm: , Zazier, Knight of Cydonia
(2)Knight of Cydonia: Xtoxm, Mr_Adams

Not Voting: Farkshinsoup

Of the 7 people voting for Adams, q21 and G- Force are cleared. With two confirmed cops, one of whom was confirmed not sane, I believe X's claim. I know I'm town. I also believe there is scum on the Adam's wagon. This points to ice, RBT and BC. At least one of them must be scum.


Day Two is a lot murkier:

Vote Count at end of day:
(6)Xtoxm: Knight of Cydonia, Zazier, icemanE, Farkshinsoup, Riceballtail, Xtoxm
(2)icemanE: bionicchop2, chazworthington
(1)bionicchop2: X

Frankly, I don't like any of the votes on XtomX. Fark, KoC and ice pushed that wagon hard, and I do believe at least one is scum. RBT's vote is also troublesome. All of this is muddled a bit because of the self-hammer. Both times, though, ice and RBT are on the lynchee's wagon.

I haveno problem with voting for a no-lynch, but I certainly want afatchic to post his thoughts first. I will try to re-read as well.