Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[SilverPhoenix]

Hey everyone! I'm replacing in for alvinz, so I'll do my best to catch up real quick. Thanks!

[SilverPhoenix]

First,

great game so far. Packed with interesting discussion from Day 1. Of course, that means I have to sift through a lot of discussion. This is my first game in a while, so be patient.

Second,

Unvote.

Duh.

Third,

my reads from my semi-quick overview:

Kairyuu

– Hyper-aggressive, but who cares? I seen way too many instances of aggressive behavior go against my view of the person so that isn't a good tell of anything. However, the player reactions have been somewhat negative against this behavior. To be honest, aggressive players work well, except when they target newbies (see

Artem’s

read below). The worst statement

Kai

has made was Post 162 when he implied he wanted to be investigated.

Kai

, your actions/words make you scum or not, and since you have already said you are town, that would be a waste of the cop’s action. It’s a bad argument to make and certainly detrimental to the town either way. If you are town, you don’t need to try and prove it to make your argument valid. And rating people less for automatically assuming that you wanted when you didn’t does not fly with me. Any statements in this game are deliberate, and assumptions must be made, especially when words are deliberate. Overall, my view is mixed. I need a reaction of what I have said to get my vision straight. ==Edit== Mason, eh? I don't know...but at this point there hasn't been enough discussion to warrant questioning it.

Artem

– A newbie, methinks. It’s hard to tell from his reactions whether his defensive of himself against

Kairyuu’s

case makes him town or scum, because it is easy for newbies in both situations to react the same way. I certainly had a hard time reacting to aggressive players in my first games, and I think this spat between him and

Kairyuu’s

was just that.

Mykonian

– A lot of instances of over-pacification. The main things that poke out is the comment on the whole

Kairyuu

/

Artem

argument (Post 143), agreeableness with the afatchic wagon (Post 77, 93, 112), and some other small things (Miller statement in Post 86, SK statement in Post 79). A lot of other blanket statements have been made, and your management of simply wanting to lynch afatchic is disturbing as lurkers don’t provide anything, make his lynch a random choice. The biggest scumtell, however, is the contradiction you make when we shouldn’t have tunnelvision (Post 143) when you clearly had it with the

afatchic

wagon. Making statements that don’t apply to you is certainly scumminess. ==Edit== Eh? Mason? Not sure I’m buying it… but you haven’t been shot down, so I guess it’s true.

Scheherazade (afatchic)

– His past life as

afatchic

is completely irrelevant to any discussion, I think everyone should agree.

CF Riot

– A bit argumentative, which is different from aggressiveness in my book. This is the quality that I don’t really like, and I feel that it’s a scum tell. ==Edit== Okay I finally got to so more substantial stuff. I disagree with your town-overdefensiveness vs scum-overdefensiveness because of the newbie factor (explained above). Not as scummy as I though before. ==Edit 2== Got to your attack on sekinj. I again don’t agree with you. Not a bad thing, but it proves your argumentative nature. Do you agree that you are?

Alvinz95 – My predecessor barely posted anything. I saw nothing scummy from his statements, so I don’t know where people were mentioning him a scum for offering a cursory opinion. Along with afatchic, irrelevant at this point.

The others: I’ll get to you guys soon. Although some haven’t been posting much (Scigatt and Ku_F).

Fourth,

my overall view of the game thus far, and what I intend to do:
As you might see, my views are a bit convoluted above, as I was typing as I was reading. My feelings about

mykonian

were incorrect, unless

Kairyuu

and

myko

are pulling a huge-ass stunt on us as scum. I don’t entirely buy the Mason claim especially, since

mykonian

made it seem like he was the obvious partner, even though to me it wasn’t. I’ll leave the Mason thing at that for now. To me, the most scummiest player at this point is

CF Riot

, so an

FOS: CF Riot.

His nature of posting seems to indicate argumentative posture, which an easy position for a scum to take. But certainly not enough for a vote.

BTW, you can abbreviate my name SP if you want.

[SilverPhoenix]

Also, I'm not quite understanding the sentiment against sekinj. That's my main reason for the FOS, but I think once I've read the past couple pages in more depth again I think I will get it.

So take the FOS somewhat lightly, CF Riot. That is, until I understand the whole sekinj thing.

[SilverPhoenix]

Disclaimer of my first post:

A lot of that analysis is from the beginning 6-8 pages of the game. I am starting to better understand the past 4 pages better now so hang with me.

mykonian

- The disclaimer above is mainly for you. I'm starting to catch up to current events, so a lot of what I may have said was history/irrelevant. Nevertheless, there were probably at least 4-5 pages of discussion about

afatchic

in which afatchic had no absolutely part. He wasn't an lurker, he was inactive. There's a difference. The main tunnelvision problem I had was here:

Although he is right in his feelings toward afatchic. I think afatchic should be our lynch.

Insistence of a lynch is never a town tell (different than a scumtell). We are still a week from deadline, we can't go rushing into a lynch. I know this was a while ago, but statements like this stick in my mind. Not to mention that I'm starting not to believe your claim (see below).

Kairyuu

- My doubts of your and

myko's

claim have risen. Let's start with something said about the implied statement I said in my last post:

Firstly, I never asked for an investigation. I mentioned hoping I could be confirmed, which was my way of implying that I could be confirmed. Secondly, I said that I would submit to a lynch if I couldn't be confirmed, which I do believe I can be.

The only way your masonry is confirmed is if your other mason confirms so. Yes, I know that

myko

did, but the point is that I see this as an easy claim for two scum.

You

and others noted that

myko

was defending you, and due to the fixation that everyone (myself included) seem to have on the setup because it's semi-open, it's easy enough to make. Now getting to the actual claim:

Now I and my partner will be at a serious risk of being killed N1, so if there is a doc among the rest of the town, please protect one of us.

What is the point of this? I think the Doctor (should there be one) would know this automatically, and therefore I think you are making too many steps to ensure the claim is true, including that you also greatly elaborated on your mason role PM (unless that was just made up by you ). I see, in this case, you "asking" for the power as "asking to waste it on a scum". A lot of my analysis of you and

myko

made from the beginning/middle of the game seemed to anti-town (particularly

myko

), so this claim seems insincere to me. That doesn't warrant a vote, however. I want you to examine what I've said and respond.

CF Riot

- I found where the Sekinj thing began. This is also to answer

myko's

question for more explaination.

My new top suspect is Sekinj. I thought the way Sekinj jumped on the Kair wagon was questionable and I think the bail off of it, with no questions asked and no new discussion on any point, is another scummy move. Vote: Sekinj

Bluntly put, that's weak. Her vote/unvote may be dubious, but that claim doesn't hold real well. It's an easy mistake for a townie to make and for a scum to point out. The fact that others tagged along (

Artem

and

Scheherazade

) doesn't bode well for it either. Sounds like either misguided townies or newbie scum, which doesn't really make sense to me.

Two plausible situations, neither really sticks yet to me. My case on the

myko

/

Kairyuu

mason-really-scum pair has a lot of elaboration, and the

CF Riot

/Sekinj situation seems too easy, but has other factors that don't make sense. My FOS stays on

CF Riot

. Note that I'm watching

myko

/

Kairyuu

.

[SilverPhoenix]

Setup speculation time!
In this analysis, I am assuming everyone is telling the truth, even if I find it hard to believe. It's just to see the facts.
Everything said thus far:

• myko
  /
  Kairyuu
  are masons, so that's
  MM

• germy is backup role, one-shot vig, or a mason. Since he hasn't said he is a mason along with
  myko
  and
  Kairyuu
  , I will assume that he isn't a mason.

So from the seven letters, we definitely have 2, possibly 4 or or 6. That makes these combos:

M M V V _ _ _

M M D D _ _ _

M M B B _ _ _

M M V V V V _

M M D D D D _

M M B B B B _

So what can info can we get from those?

• The bottom three are highly unlikely, as the high weight on the T's make it so.

• Of the top three, the
  MMVV
  and
  MMDD
  are twice as probable as
  MMBB
  due to their separate weights.

• This also means that it is somewhat unlikely that we have a serial killer, but we probably have either a mafia spy or roleblocker.

That's all we have. Could there be more or less? Sure. The best thing I learned from this was that the mafia probably have a power role. Just thought I would share.

[SilverPhoenix]

So it's detrimental to the town to imply hopefulness of confirmation?

Yes, since you are a mason. That's

only

truly confirmable through a cop investigation, and I would have rathered confirm (at that point) someone who seemed suspicious. If you were a doctor, vig, or cop, then you could confirm that through night actions. People would wait for them too, like you were asking, and if nothing happened, you would get lynched, again like you said. Again, it is good that your partner confirmed it and no one has said you lied, but it isn't good enough for absolute truth.

Bad experience in Newbie 661. The doc protected me rather than the cop (who was being extremely obvious) N1, and if afatchic, who was scum, (we lynched the RB D1) had not assumed that the protection would have been there (due to my requesting it to go to LF (the cop)) we would have been in a bad situation. So it's more force of habit than anything.

Fair enough. Being explicit has it's merits, but I feel it wasn't needed at that time.

The whole point is that myko confirmed it without being overtly told to.

While that is true, there is another situation where this is required: you need one of your scum buddies to go along with the ploy. It serves as a signal, but that signal is as easy for scum to make as masons. Then again, this would require a lot of preparation (impossible in D1) or luck, but I think it is capable of good players.

I can't exactly quote my role PM to prove it, (as I do not want to get modkilled) so you are free to believe whatever you want. All I can say is that I did not lie. Myko and myself are masons, no two ways about it.

I can't speak for everyone, and maybe it's because I replaced in, but my role PM was identical to the role description provided by the mod in the first posts. Just saying.

Anything else you wish to know?

Are you willing to say if you have a third partner? The probabilities are pretty slim, but just to confirm.

A general question to everyone: Do you believe the mason claim by Kairyuu and mykonian? My case may be a bit fantastic, I just want to see what other opinions about it are.

[SilverPhoenix]

Wrong. I asked to be confirmed. There is a big difference (between confirmed and investigate), which you will understand in due time.

I made it blatently obvious that I had a power role, and you would rather let it go to the Night without knowing if I could back up my assertions?

I just noticed this. This backs up the statement I said that masons are only

truly

confirmed to be town through cop investigation. You made people at this point believe you have a power role which could be immediately verified, which led germy to correctly surmise you were either a child (confirmed by mod) or mason (confirmed by other mason). Unfortunately, one of those options is still out of the mouth of a player, so it can't be absolute truth yet. You are right about "confirmed" being different than investigated as in this case "confirmed" is still... unconfirmed in my book.

I know Kairyuu, you said you didn't lie, but that is simply unconfirmed.

[SilverPhoenix]

is it just me or are those last three quoted names in weird writting?

Sorry to be an idiot. They are in Japanese, as Kairyuu is Japanese....or at least I think it is.

[SilverPhoenix]

is it just me or are those last three quoted names in weird writting?

Sorry to be an idiot. They are in Japanese, as Kairyuu is Japanese....or at least I think it is.

EDWOP: I'm the idiot. Especially for not saying so.

[SilverPhoenix]

One question here though. Would you consider it absolute truth if one or the other of us were NKed and flipped mason?

Of course. I define absolute truth as confirmed by the mod. That doesn't mean your claim isn't truth, it just has less truthiness than absolute truth.

One more question for you. Have I responded to your points in a manner that is convincing? Or do you still require more evidence?

For now, I suppose. I'm not entirely convinced, but there isn't much I can do besides voting for you to make my point, which I don't want to do. I'm taking your claim to be true for now, with this scenario in the back of my head in the coming game days.

Kairyuu translated to english means 'to find the cubic root of a number.'

That's right. I had to look it up, but yeah, that's cool. I wish my Japanese name (Keteru) had an actual meaning.

[SilverPhoenix]

Not related to me but what's more truthful about someone saying "I'm town" and someone else saying "I'm the cop, and he is town" than someone saying "I'm a mason" and someone else saying "Yup and me too"? You just said something about a cop confirming someone being really confirmed, but couldn't scum fake cop just as easy as fake mason? On this note, I believe Kairyuu and Myko because SO many things would keep them from reaching endgame as scum. If both of them are alive D3 I'll start scratching my head, but I'm pretty sure I believe them for now.

You are completely right. Then my case rests (especially now that I read that the same case was made by germy immediately after he claimed XD). However, germy's suspicion of a gambit was immediately followed by this from mykonian:

Is this the classical scummy `oh, I was wrong` post? Still you keep all the options open, and basically you say nothing.

That isn't protown at all. Mykonian is

demanding

belief, not asking for it. "You have to believe me!!!" isn't cool as it implies a kind of complete game-changing move that automatically makes him immune to suspicion. Hardly is the case. But nevertheless, we are all watching you. o.o

Now on to pressing things. I don't know why all this negative attention is being directed toward Sekinj. I'll take some quotes from the arguments to try and understand. This is going to be flow-of-consciousness...sort of.

2) Sekinj - You refused to respond to SpringLullaby's vote. I think that given the chance, scum like to ignore accusations that they believe won't gain support, rather than try to refute them and consequently draw more attention to the matter. I caught a scum in my first game this way, with a prying question over a very small issue. He refused to respond because a few people had said the question was unfair, and it turned out he was scum.

The root of the attention. In which she responded that she made a mistake (thought the vote was semi-random). She did address it, so I don't see the problem.

I think her response to germy being reintroduced as a suspect might itself be suspect. Normally, I’d see nothing wrong, but with everything else, it feels like she’s annoyed because she already knows whether germy is town or scum, which only scum or mason could know at this point… And she’s not a mason, it would seem.

This I can kind of agree with this, although the reasons aren't the same. She said she felt like that we needed to move on, as somewhat silly notions were being thrown around, like when my predecessor said that germy used way too much IIoA (the only thing he pretty much said).

Also… Did Sekinj add fuel to the Kairyuu/Artem fire? Maybe unintentionally, but Artem seems to think that Sekinj thought he appeased Kairyuu too much. Was that a weak attempt to make the row the focus of discussion? She then says that Artem is attacking Kairyuu too strongly… I find her involvement in the row irregular.

Uh, Kairyuu brought up Artem in the discussions back then, not Sekinj. (Post 106)

I know that taken individually, any of these things could be dismissed. What I think is suspect is the pattern.

A pattern of what? Scummy behavior? It would be fine if they were linked, but I don't think they are. Although at times, she seemed impatient, but Sekinj felt she said everything before, and we all know how annoying it is to bring up everything again.

I see a pattern of you misreading, misunderstanding and trying to find scum where there isn't any.

This is the bottom line. I really don't see a whole lot of substance to this.

I'm making this argument only because I was/am having trouble grasping the accusations against Sekinj. Is there something more substansive that I missed?

[SilverPhoenix]

The last quote I made was really directed at both Scheherazade and CF Riot. I feel that both of you are trying too hard to find fault in Sekinj's actions.

[SilverPhoenix]

@springlullaby: CF Riot and Shez have just had their cases for a longer time, and they are also currently voting for her. But I can address your concerns about Sekinj as well.

Also, I'm not quite understanding the sentiment against sekinj. That's my main reason for the FOS, but I think once I've read the past couple pages in more depth again I think I will get it.

That's the reason I dove into the issue. As it stood, the situation didn't make sense to me, so I decided to back and pick apart the cases.

sekinj, I'm willing to lynch too, because her vote and rapid unvote on Kairyuu does look opportunist and the long explanation about her unvote sounds more defensive than it needed to. And her indecision is starting to grate on my nerves again.

That about sums up your reasoning for being suspicious of Sekinj, correct?
Ok, my point-of-view here, but putting someone into L-2 is simply not opportunistic

on D1

. A lynch would require a hammer by two more people in rapid succession, which is silly for the scum to even attempt. And after several people began to attack her, she had to defend herself. I see little wrong with it.

I would like Scheherazade, CF Riot, and springlullaby to bring a better case against Sekinj. For a bit of a pressure, I'll

Vote: Scheherazade

, mainly since he already has votes on him.

[SilverPhoenix]

@Scheherazade:
Thanks for your post, as I am able to understand at least your case much more clearly. I mainly agree with what you say about her comment that her vote isn't easily given, yet she voted rashly anyway for Kairyuu. Contradiction is almost lying, that makes sense that you find fault in her rash vote. That is the largest flaw I see. The whole hasty/unwarranted feeling about Sekinj probably true, but I don't think it is a very accurate scumtell, and these are the type of townie mistakes that get quickly picked apart by scum (not saying your scum).

Unvote

So at the end of the day, I find....no one really suspicious yet. I guess it's back to the drawing board.

[SilverPhoenix]

[M]y interpretations are either:

1. the claimed masons are mafia
2. Artem is mafia
3. the mafia were reluctant to cast a vote on someone a townie was gunning for
4. Sche is mafia.

These sum up my thoughts pretty well. There are a lot of plausible situations of scum in this game, which won't be solved in Day 1 unless we find a good lynch. However, in N1, I expect either Kairyuu, mykonian, germy, or (maybe) Artem dead. Whoever dies in N1 will give a lot of information, unless they get Ku_F or something, in which we know that the scum are pussies.

My ordering of the list is different however. This is most scummy to least.
1. The scum are reluctant to vote.
2. Tie with Artem or Sche being mafia.
3. The mason pair being mafia.

On a tangent, I am finding germy's case on Scigatt stronger as time progresses. Edify only had one post, basically telling germy that he was trying too much too quickly (although it was accompanied by a vote). Scigatt, however, is pretty much actively lurking. Excuses along with procastination and, most importantly, no opinions. This stuck out the most.

Also, many of you have posted reams of text that for me to give any reasons as to my positions would just be repetition.

Even if you repeat what others have said (either knowingly or not), it at least shows that you actively have opinions about how the game progressed. I know that midterms are tough sometimes (finished with my first a couple of weeks ago), but continually putting off important discussion doesn't seem like honest town behavior and more like scum that doesn't know where his vote is supposed to go (as scum are expected to vote for the lynch).

FoS: Scigatt

[SilverPhoenix]

@Everyone: Why are you all unvoting Zade? Just look at the scum slip! That may be the most damning evidence of the game thus far.

My vote before was simply pressure.

For a bit of a pressure, I'll

Vote: Scheherazade

, mainly since he already has votes on him.

At the time, my understanding of the the deal with Sekinj was sketchy. But then Sche, CF, and spring all offered the POV, and I agreed with some of their points. My vote was the quickest way to get those explanations. But by no means is Sekinj the lynch today.

You're right, putting someone at L-2 when both the scum are still hidden isn't very opportunistic on its own.

This, however, is kinda big. Kairyuu is good at pointing out semantic mistakes, but as the judging of it still falls to all of us, I always seem not to trust semantic mistakes as scum tells.

@Kairyuu: Read what you will in it, but it comes from never having played in a game with more than two scum before, anywhere.

This is a hard response to make, but I feel it's honest. I'm not willing to pin up Sche for this.

[SilverPhoenix]

@Everyone: Why are you all unvoting Zade? Just look at the scum slip! That may be the most damning evidence of the game thus far.

To add to what I have said about this statement, it was only me and mykonian that unvoted, and myko did so because he didn't want the lynch to happen without him being there.
To be honest, finding the "slip" to be the most scummy thing so far in this game is pretty hysterical to say the least (not funny hysterical). I know the deadline approaches, but I'm getting the feeling like you are falling apart. There isn't a reason for it really, or at least in your situation, I don't think there would be. Unless you are really scum.

FOS: Kairyuu

Your behavior is starting to become illogical. Why?

[SilverPhoenix]

SP... really need to get a vote down, even if you're unsure of your read right now.

With the votes evenly divided over Scheherazade, Sekinj, and springlullaby, and cases for each one of them and Artem flying every which way, I feel that we as a town aren't having the same conversation. People are going steadfast in their opinions of the others and no one is convincing anyone: a dangerous situation for the town. This lynch is

hard!

Certainly the hardest I have ever participated in. But I'll make a deal: I will decide tonight my order of lynch-worthy people, and vote for someone. I can say with certainty that the list will have Artem, springlullaby, zade, and sekinj on it, maybe others. But I'm going to need to brood heavily over what has been said, especially in the last couple of pages as people start to get ancy over a No Lynch.

[SilverPhoenix]

SP: I haven't seen anything scummy from you so far, but I don't liek this post. You name everyone that anyone has been suspicious of, and claim difficulty in chosing. This looks like you are prentending ambivilence and that you are stalling in order to see where others put their votes, or if they will change their votes. Now... I'm not even going to Fos you for that because I havn't seen anything else scummy from you... but I don't like this post... it looks too much like a false dilemma.

False dilemma? You don't call zade with 3, sekinj and spring each with 2, Artem and Scigatt each with 1 a dilemma? We need 7 votes from 11 (Ku_F is pretty much out) so we don't need division among the ranks for this lynch. I'm not going to just eenie-meenie-minie-moe it either like myko seems to be doing (not a good sign, btw). My post may seem to be a complaint, but it is merely reflecting the situation as it stands. I don't know how you can't agree with that.

[SilverPhoenix]

Okay my post numbers in the following are referring to Sekinj's isolated posts (using that menu at the bottom of the thread, which I didn't know was there until recently ).

@Kair - You are willing to switch your vote over when Shez has 4 votes and I have 2? It seems obvious where the bulk of the suspicion lies.

Interesting, considering your vote is on springlullaby without much substance at this point. Your only accusation before that was in Post 41, in which you took "a brief look" and found "nothing glaring". That was the entire basis of your vote for her at that point, and considering how you regard votes with care (Post 34), I find your vote somewhat disturbing. You then continue with recent comments about voting:

... and that you are stalling in order to see where others put their votes, or if they will change their votes.

Even though you approved of the same here:

-not really. I want to see more of how people react. then I'll vote. thanks for asking.

This lynch isn't extremely imminent yet, yet you think my stalling for a couple of hours is too ambivalent? You voted for spring and even upon being asked today, you simply repeated what you said before only adding that spring was "wishy-washy".
I find you the most wishy-washy of all. You've made cases against Scheherazade (Post 32), CF Riot (Post 40), Artem (the whole Kair-Artem argument), and pointed things out about other players, yet you stick your guns to arguably your weakest case? Not to mention deflecting accusations weakly (Post 54 and 57) and getting annoyed by bringing up past arguments (Post 17, 18 and 53). I'm not seeing anything redeeming about Sekinj's play, and don't see how her playing is helping the town.

Vote: Sekinj

.

[SilverPhoenix]

To add, Sekinj also said this in response of my "This lynch is hard" comment:

...You name everyone that anyone has been suspicious of...

Interesting, considering you have pursued cases the same people, yet not be decisive enough about any of them to warrant a vote.

[SilverPhoenix]

EBWOP: you have pursued cases

of

the same people...

[SilverPhoenix]

No, Siree, it looks much more like you didn't like what I had to say about your fence sitting,

and so went back to make up a case on me.

I didn't even criticize you very strongly, becuase i didn't see anything scummy before now. I'm very surprised you reacted so strongly, But you blew up about it, decided I was scum out of all of those you mentioned, and went back and drug up everything you didn't like about me.

TBH, making this case now had nothing with your criticism, even though it was sorta timed that way. After looking back at the posts made over the last couple pages, I feel you are the scummiest right now. As I said before, I find you to be the most wish-washy person in the game, enough for it to feel like you are scum.

For the 17-day thing, I meant to point to Post 34 about the vote being done only when needed, not that one. But nevertheless, when I said I was going to vote

later tonight

, you acted like it was

never

going to happen, prompting the "sitting on the fence" comment in the first place. In that sense, the length of time before the lynch doesn't matter, as I was definitely going to vote

before

the deadline.

And I really don't think I blew up, honestly. I only presented a case I think is valid.

[SilverPhoenix]

First of all,

I don't see how talking about the setup

...

can hurt the town.

The scum will discuss this among themselves anyways at night, and

I don't how this could be town move.

Vote:springlullaby

First, isn't that a contradictory statment? Look at the red vs blue parts.

Second, in this situation, if everyone is truthful about what they have said, I think it was bad for the town as now the scum know a couple things: There is a power role with a backup that isn't germy, and there are two masons (Kairyuu and myko) without power roles. So in a three-scum game, they have at least 1/6 chance of hitting an known power role (12 people - 3 scum - 3 non-powerrole = 6 possible, in which one of those is a power role, so 1/6) as that chance is probably higher due to the chance of existence of other power roles.
Those odds aren't great, but we increased it for them. But that doesn't really matter at this point, as I don't know where you stand because your statement contradicts itself.

[SilverPhoenix]

EBWOP: I think the red statement was made about spring's post and not about talking about the setup, so nvm about that.

Talking about a semi-open setup is a double-edged sword. It can get confusing, and several players can use that to take advantage of the town. However, town power roles in the game get a better idea of what they should do at night by knowing what they are up against.

[SilverPhoenix]

Scigatt, since when is talking about talking about the setup a scumtell? This is ridiculous.

In the end, it is the people with the lettered roles that know more about the setup than anyone else. Most will never say all that they know, as obviously they would claim in order for it to be true. Myko's right, this simply isn't as important right now.

PS: SP I like your avatar! I wouldn't change it.

Yeah, I finally found a good one. However, I did steal it from deviantart. (I did make silver though. It was a normal phoenix before)

Anyway, those are my thoughts. We've got two days to decide a) whether we want to lynch (yes, I assume), b) who we ought to lynch, and c) who's willing to compromise to achieve that lynch. I have hope that we'll reach a compromise because not a few people have expressed willingness to vote for multiple players.

a) Yes, I think we should lynch. It would give us more information about the other players than anything.
b) I sticking to Sekinj right now. I would like to hear more opinions, especially from Kairyuu and germy.
c) I might be willing to, but again I need to hear more opinions from the others.

[SilverPhoenix]

Very nice educational tool, springlullaby! It's pretty funny!

Anyway, I'm not convinced guys. springlullaby's use of meta against Artem makes sense, although I personally haven't found much against Artem. This makes me think that she had to resort to desperate measures to find suspicion elsewhere, and it just seems that no one else buys it. I don't know if this is the compromise I'm willing to make. :/

[SilverPhoenix]

Then again, now that I think about it, Artem would use that argument as townie because you used it as a townie. It doesn't really matter what he said at the time you used it against him, as he was scum trying to get the suspicion deflected. He certainly could have learned his lesson and therefore used the same tactic as townie from then on.
So I take back the statement I said last post. Spring's case for Artem is weaker than I thought. Combined with me still not finding much on Artem, I think spring's argument against Artem is dead.
Does that make her scummy? Partially. I think beating a dead horse one too many times can be a signal of someone trying to be too townie. Does this warrant a vote? Not yet. I want to see spring respond to me, since my vote would put her at L-1.

[SilverPhoenix]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

Either we have a doctor or the mafia is terrified. Killing germy, mykonian, or Kairyuu would have been easy, and it really only puts their claims on the line. The role pm for the mafia says they aren't required to kill (uses "may", not "must"), so it is very likely that the Mafia is scared of killing the obvious players.

mFOS: Kairyuu, mykonian

It's minor because it is very plausible that we have a doctor. But last night certainly did not help your claims.

[SilverPhoenix]

I'm not familiar with games of mafia that allow the mafia to refrain from killing somebody. What motives would mafia have not to kill? Obviously, if no one dies, we're deprived of information. But this only brings the mafia closer to winning if it anticipates that we'll continue to kill townies. It seems like killing one of the claimed players would be safe for the mafia.

I know this all leads to WIFOM when applied, but I'm still trying to figure out what it means. Help?

Either we have a doctor or the mafia is terrified. Killing germy, mykonian, or Kairyuu would have been easy, and it really only puts their claims on the line. The role pm for the mafia says they aren't required to kill (uses "may", not "must"), so it is very likely that the Mafia is scared of killing the obvious players.

mFOS: Kairyuu, mykonian

It's minor because it is very plausible that we have a doctor. But last night certainly did not help your claims.

Yet at the same time, maybe that is something the mafia is/was hoping for, doubt being cast on Kair and Myko.

I see where the WIFOM falls into play, but why does that prevent the Mafia from just killing someone else without much suspicion? The mafia must have been scared stupid (quite literally).

[SilverPhoenix]

@Phoenix and wolframhart: Do you guys see any other possibilities?

There is another that I am waiting on from a mod pm to confirm. I won't say what it is yet.
But your 5 choices are pretty sound. The question you pose in the 2nd situation is answered because germy soft-claimed town, but like you said, he could be mafia. He immediately mentioned the possible scum gambit, a possible secret way to tell his scummates that he understands the gambit and will play along with it. I'm getting the feeling that the gambit is ever more likely to exist...

I really need to hear reactions from Kairyuu and germy regarding the lack of a nightkill.

Wall-E: Anything else you found about germy that we should be aware of?

[SilverPhoenix]

I've been looking over the thread again and I've been getting a bad feeling about Artem...
He begins by making his arguments against Kairyuu and afatchic (to a lesser extent) over isolated Posts 0-7, 9-14. A lot of the argument was semantic stuff (small contradiction for the opening vote, pulling 1/4 out of thin air, reacting at Kairyuu for defending afatchic's 1/4, etc.)

You're not my main attacker, Kair, you're simply scum who's building up suspicion on me, in case your attack on afatchic falls through and you need somebody else to pounce on. Notice how you jumped from Germy onto afatchic:

He isn't? Then who was? I know this quote is from a while ago, but then you "jumped" from Kairyuu to Zade in order to deflect suspicion since the guy that you built your entire case against claimed town. You then were largely out of discussion for the time up until your hammer (I know you where V/LA for a couple of days), in which you immediately regretted. Publicly stating your regret is not town-like at all, as it means you worry too much about how your vote sounded and how the lynched is going to affect the town. Considering that springlullaby's main suspicion was on you, I would definitely be worried about my image too. Just not publicly.

Vote: Artem

Artem: What do you think about the lack of a nightkill?

I am also not sure why people are just moving back to their original targets of the lynch. In my eyes, it is too easy to do that...I think there was a lot of juicy stuff before the lynch.

[SilverPhoenix]

That could not have been more obvious.

Not necessarily to a recent replacement.

[SilverPhoenix]

Yesterday he tried to spread some uncertainty, and today he continue's. Weak scum.
... Please tell me who is scum, then

1) That was because I didn't particularly feel that a SL lynch was right, and was it really?

2) Look who my vote is on. I have brought some evidence forward about Artem already. And it seems you agree with me, too!

going after artem now.

I'm certainly not trying to spread uncertainty, but trying to nullify it. We were all uncertain yesterday about the people that were close to being lynched, and ended up essentially taking a shot in the dark. I feel like that the people targeting the same people yesterday for the same reasons are taking that same uncertainty to today by not analyzing the full effects that N1 have on today, and I feel that it will turn again into a lynch that no one really wants.
However, that doesn't mean I am not suspicious of people. Your sense of entitlement because you have claimed doesn't win my approval, which actually makes me more suspicious of you. I am suspicious of Artem because of what I said before (although I will go further in-depth later, as he brought up weaker points about my case). I am somewhat suspicious of sekinj for her wishy-washyness that I explained yesterday and that she sort-of continued today. I am slightly suspicious of mykonian for his sense of entitlement as a claimed town (just because you claimed town, doesn't mean your instincts about who are scum are correct, a slightly-related version of bare assertion fallacy) and his comments about wanting to not lynch germy (the town doesn't care who they shouldn't lynch, as it just gives ideas to the scum who to NK).

[SilverPhoenix]

@SilverPhoenix: Would you walk me through the analysis of night one you feel has most influenced your suspicions, please? Also, did you hear back from the mod on your little investigation? Would you care to share?

Not specifically Night 1, but the events surrounding it, including some events today. I just don't won't people to seem flippant about
Mykonian has been on my scumdar for a long time. Even after he claimed, I found that he had a sense of entitlement (isolated posts 80, 81, 44) surrounding his claim, which doesn't help the town at all as his view as to who is scum is the same as mine, not better simply because he claimed. That was the most striking thing. He seems to bounce around a bit, but that's not too important, as he does so to who he thinks is scummy at the time. The recent comments he made (80,81) brought up that suspicion again. Of course, he claimed, so he is at the bottom of my list.

Then there is sekinj, for her wishy-washyness. I outlined this in my isolated post 19, which she responded pretty defensive to, feeling that I made the case against her because of her comment about me sitting on the fence, which I responded to in post 22. She has pretty much stuck to herself in terms of playstyle, so I put her next.

Finally, Artem. The biggest spat in this game was arguably between him and Kairyuu, not that he would like to admit it. He has a constant record of picking up on pro-town positions many posts after they have been made by others already (Isolated posts 20 (mentioned scum gambit was too thin), 21-22 (attack and lynch of SL), 25) Although those posts were direct questions, I feel that he didn't need to think about the answers because the answers already provided were "enough" and he didn't want to volunteer information.

About the second part....in due time. The time is not right, especially now that we need another replacement.

[SilverPhoenix]

unvote vote Scigatt

Finally, just because your predecessor didn't do it doesn't make it any less scummy for you to make up for lost time.

Making up time is scummy?

I don't have the time to do a reread of everything he says now, but I clearly remember this, and this is placing things out of context. I don't like it.

WHAT?
You can't read the thread, but since he's trying to, you find him scummy for that? That's just low....

[SilverPhoenix]

Considering the source, namely you, I have to take this with a grain of salt.

Innocent until proven guilty? /shrug

Just a thought.

[SilverPhoenix]

I forgot to mention that Scigatt is also on my scumlist. The most "active lurker" that I have ever seen. Seems to never be focused on the entire picture, never truly caught up. Avoids questions with "I'll do it later."
It is almost a policy lynch. Not quite though.

[SilverPhoenix]

First, welcome to the game, Shanba. I'll do a nice customary

Unvote

until I get a better understanding of you. Note, however, that you are still on my radar as Artem's actions of adopting popular opinions blindly were perceived as scummy on my part.

Scigatt is fairly obviously scum. His first four posts all have disclaimers in them for their lack of content. I understand he's overwhelmed with exams, etc. but he clearly has a certain amount of time to post - or at least, he managed to find some when people began attacking him.

If we look at his actual contribution to the game, it is very little. There is nothing scummy about trying to catch up with a game you have fallen behind in. The problem I have with him is that he doesn't seem to be giving much effort to this. If we look at his posts, we see that he has focused more on refuting attacks against him than catching up. In other words, his first priority is survival.

I can agree with that. I said something similar before (quoted below).

On a tangent, I am finding germy's case on Scigatt stronger as time progresses. Edify only had one post, basically telling germy that he was trying too much too quickly (although it was accompanied by a vote). Scigatt, however, is pretty much actively lurking. Excuses along with procastination and, most importantly, no opinions. This stuck out the most.

Also, many of you have posted reams of text that for me to give any reasons as to my positions would just be repetition.

Even if you repeat what others have said (either knowingly or not), it at least shows that you actively have opinions about how the game progressed. I know that midterms are tough sometimes (finished with my first a couple of weeks ago), but continually putting off important discussion doesn't seem like honest town behavior and more like scum that doesn't know where his vote is supposed to go (as scum are expected to vote for the lynch).

FoS: Scigatt

The "survival" part is an interesting case to make, although it could be a panicked townie-tell. But as a lurker, Scigatt really makes it seem that he is perpetually stalling, as if he made an initial bad mistake that he knows will get him lynched. Not townie behavior.

FoS: Scigatt

. That can change to a vote if it gets down to the line or Scigatt offers something else I find scummy.

[SilverPhoenix]

(On a side note, SilverPhoenix, I'm pretty sure I've played with you before, but I'm finding it nigh impossible to place you. Argh.)

It was the Fire Emblem mini. I went on hiatus from about December (I guess) until about a month ago, so I sadly didn't finish it.

[SilverPhoenix]

On a rather interesting note, this is the second player in this game that got replaced as suspicion of them was mounting. I find that odd.

Eh, I find it coincidence. There is a fair amount of replacing in every game in MS. (On a related note, great job with the replacing, username!) Also, the usual dislike of lurkers makes inactives more often then not suspicious than others.

[SilverPhoenix]

Is everybody waiting for the replacement?

Maybe. It would certainly be nice to have the replacement's input. Although I am for a Scigatt lynch too. Either way is fine with me.

[SilverPhoenix]

SP: Who do you find most suspicious after Scigatt? Have your suspicions of Sekinj faded?

I'd still put Sekinj after Scigatt, then Shanba/Artem close behind. Although....

I know we don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, but I just feel like we need a claim at least. Some real content and input would be nice, and yes it may or may not convince us to change our minds, but say we got a replacement and they claim some kind of role. Wouldn't that be worth waiting for? Say we don't get a replacement any time soon, wouldn't it be worth it to lynch someone else today and go back towards a Scigatt lynch D3? I can see that being a problem closer to endgame, but for us it's D2 and there were no NK's. I think we can afford to wait for a replacement.

Let's see....2 weeks to deadline...asking for a claim...pleading not to lynch Scigatt until D3....not good. That entire statement was antitown.

Vote: CF Riot.

You better have a good reason for it.

[SilverPhoenix]

? Really? The reason is enough people have said they are willing to vote/lynch Scigatt for it to actually happen, and 3 people (yourself included) have said they're willing to lynch him

before

we get a replacement. I just see that as a crappy play, considering we're not in any dangerous situation where we need to lynch him right away, and at the very least if we wait for a replacement we can get a claim before lynching Scig, which may benefit town.

Your thought process doesn't make sense either, because if I were scum trying to get Scig to claim, it would probably easier to just advocate lynching him before a replacement and not have to worry about the claim.

You have a point about the Scigatt claim thing. I sort of sounded desperate for a Scigatt lynch, in which I really am not. I guess it is partly to do with the fact that my top suspects just replaced out. And although I am suspicious of Scigatt, I'm wasn't going to vote for him in the near future. It's not like he is L-1 or something, although it is the general sentiment to lynch Scigatt.

HOWEVER, at the time when I read your statement, it just seemed like a plead for a scum partner (I don't care about Scigatt's role, silly), which is obviously not townie behavior. Now I am feeling a bit more neutral about it, but I still find it bad. Although my vote was a bit impulsive, it stays for now.

[SilverPhoenix]

Firstly, the impression I get from this is that you would only vote Scigatt if he was close to lynch. That sounds a bit odd, so I'm pretty sure I've misunderstood it. I'd like clarification from SP about what he meant before I push this point.

That is true, although it would be a while from now. Doing the Scigatt lynch was a possibility that I, along with others, were simply thinking of.

Firstly - the reason he found Riot's post suspicious, is, according to this post, that he felt it was covering for a scumbuddy. Now, that means that his suspicion of riot is correct only if Scigatt is scum - in that case, why vote Riot over Scigatt?

Because he made the more obvious scumtell. My view on Scigatt was that he was a super lurker that deflected most of his suspicion to "later..." as I said before. My general feel for him is scummy, but CF Riot's post to cover him is so obviously anti-town that I had to vote for him. It is not as scummy as it could be, however (if he made it much later, for example).

Secondly - He listed in the first post three people he found scummier than riot. I'm not going to say that people should only vote for those they find most suspicious, but I am going to say that I feel people should use their votes effectively. What exactly was he hoping to achieve with an isolated vote on his fourth top suspect who is only scummy by association? I understand it was impulsive, but in that case, why leave it there afterwards? Sp, please answer these questions.

I listed them, yes, but I didn't say they were scummier than CF Riot. I do admit the order seemed to make it that way, but I was sort of doing a stream of consciousness, so I addressed the question that I was asked first (who I was suspicious of). About not taking my vote off yet, there was nothing for me that vindicated CF Riot's first post in response to my vote, so I didn't take it off.
Speaking of which...

Why do you, the claimed back-up role, have any reason to not hear a claim? You should be anticipating it the most, because if it's a fake claim that doesn't match your own role, you should be there to shoot it down. If it does match your role, you can confirm it, and if it's a fake then we should get a counter-claim from someone which will damn Scig and confirm you all at once. I'm starting to question Germy's claim more and more as the game goes on. It made sense to me when we didn't have a NK, so I trusted it pretty strongly. That's falling apart now.

What? You seriously think that Scigatt is going to try and claim power role? That's just ridiculous. The main reason why germy and I don't think that a claim would be helpful at all because of the situation surrounding it. If he was scum, the only possible role that he could safely claim is vanilla, and how in the hell is that helpful to the town in determining his scumminess? He goes from scummy to uncertain and if he lives to Day 3, which gives the mafia enough time to plan how exactly they want to destroy the town so that the uncertain goes unpunished too late. Also, claims are just as confusing as a game-day of arguments and are more easily distrusted (as you are doing so to germy's softclaim only after one game-day).

Optimum

town

play would be: lynch the scummiest player day 2, lynch someone else day 3

This (with the added part ). I do not see a claim coming from Scigatt being helpful.

CF Riot, Shanba,

why would it be helpful?

[SilverPhoenix]

Can you explain why you're so sure the current claims made have all possible power roles covered? I haven't claimed yet. There are others who haven't as well. Please elaborate on this point.
....
Orly.

Unvote: Vote: SilverPheonix

Do I really need to? Do you honestly think that a lurker is going to be a power role? Town power roles generally have vested interests in their game as they give the town a much better chance of winning. Even if they are trying to hide. And the point still stand on why a claim would even be beneficial at all in this case.

And why the vote? You clearly took my words out of the context that I would vote Scigatt when he is close to lynch because I clearly said that now isn't the time for that, but later (like hours before deadline later). I don't get why that warrants a vote without some misunderstanding..../shrug

[SilverPhoenix]

Alright. I'm the roleblocker. I blocked Shaharezade last night.

Why? Well, you'd have to ask my predecessor.

Unvote, Vote: Natirasha, mFoS: germy

Either

you

are lying or

germy

is.

What I have been hinting at (sort of, Zade picked up on it earlier) this day was that I was a power role (how I actually knew that Scigatt wouldn't claim power role, although what I said before was true too ). I am the roleblocker. While it is certainly possible that there could be two roleblockers, with 2 already claimed masons and germy soft-claiming a backup role, I can assume that germy is

likely

to be my backup (if he's not lying). Therefore, it would require BBBB for 2 RBs + backup at a very unlikely .02% chance.

Anyways, I targeted

Artem/Shanba

last night. I did it after a hunch surrounding SL's lynch, and since there was no NK...you know. That's one initial reason why I went after Artem earlier today. My CF Riot stuff was reactionary to his statement, but I have more faith in Artem/Shanba being scum. But Scigatt/Natirasha is most likely lying at this point, so LAL to you. Or germy.

[SilverPhoenix]

I didn't want to claim today.
But counterclaiming is all the more important.

[SilverPhoenix]

@Everyone: Natirasha is L-2. Just a warning

[SilverPhoenix]

I have two things to say.

Setup.

Lets say for a minute that we have two roleblockers and one back-up blocker. Then we have two masons.

That gives us a setup of BBBBMM?.

Now, I'm of the opinion that, since there was no kill last night, and assuming me or SP blocked scum, that there is no SK. Ergo, the setup is BBBBMMT.

This leads us to point two: One of Sharezade and Shanba is scum.

Hrm. I guess I'll

Unvote

to ensure overactive scum don't lynch you. I am very doubtful that BBBBMMT is the setup. That's just the probabilities speaking to me, though. It is certainly possible, but like I said, just not very likely. We need germy...

[SilverPhoenix]

Wait i'm confused, since when does a roleblocker block a mafia kill or SK kill? Sk i might get because it is an ability.. but then again i guess the mafia kill is an ability too.. maybe i am just confused on the whole roleblocking part of it.

That's what I contacted the mod about earlier. It is possible for a roleblocker in this game to block a scumkill, it just has to be the one that PMs the mod with the kill. And it definitely applies to SK kills too. Generally, roleblocks come before kills in terms of what happens first. Due to the lack of kill(s) last night, we can assume that is true.

But the way i see it, either we lynch Nat due to SP's counter claim, though even he admits there might be two blockers, or we lynch artem/shanba who SP claims to have blocked which ended up leaving us with a saved person last night. If we lynch Shanba, we can find out if what SP claims is true, if we lynched Nat i guess that means we see that he was lying, and if he was then SP would be in trouble at night but if germy is his back up then germy assumes the role if i have that right. in which case shanba would be the lynch the next day seeing as SP was telling the truth.

Do i have that all right? Did i miss anything?

Nope, that is all correct. We obviously need to weigh the rest of the players in on this recent development.

[SilverPhoenix]

And boy oh boy can I say "I told you so" to everyone who jumped me for wanting a claim?!?

I was in the mindset of "If I was scum I would..." not claim powerrole. Because it is a stupid notion, for scum. However...

I am the nurse.

/sigh....I have more things to say about that, but they will come after this has set in. I was hoping it would be simpler. I guess I learned my lesson.

I was surprised when SP claimed because two people had previously cautioned against it.

I was going to do it either in twilight or tomorrow (if I was still alive) anyway due to the kill-less night (especially if it repeated itself).

If we lynch a claimer, a Town status tells us the target

is

might be

mafia.

A possible doc protect means that that isn't confirmed.

The setup, if everyone is telling the truth, is MMDDBBB, which would mean that there is a serial killer. Since we can infer that this is not the case, we must have MMDDBTX, with X being either a third M or a V. We cannot infer anything past there, because there is no evidence for it (since there is no mod confirm, and no vig kill). We know that it is not a C, because there are no millers. Therefore, we have no cop.

Kairyuu is right. The SK would have 1 RB immunity each night AND a 1-shot doc bypass, so since there were no kills and Natirasha and I didn't target the same person, there is no SK. I agree that there could be a vig or a child, as both roles had no reason to show themselves yet. (I think they are equally likely.)
With all of these claims, I really can come to one conclusion right now: someone is lying. And it certainly isn't me.

[SilverPhoenix]

I find it odd that SP says he blocked Shanba last night, hence the no vote, so he is voting Nat for claiming RB, yet Shanba says Nat is lying? Wouldn't Shanba try and refute Sp's claim or am i missing a big piece of the argument here?

If Shanba is town, then he can either confirm or not confirm that SilverPhoenix blocked him. Confirming would mean role-claiming, i.e. "I'm the cop and my night action was blocked." That would make both of them targets for the mafia, not just one. Also, it would cast suspicion on SilverPhoenix, which Shanba wouldn't want if he believes that Natirasha is lying. Being unable to confirm would mean that he's claiming vanilla. In that case, he doesn't know that SilverPhoenix is lying and he can't really argue that SilverPhoenix lies.

If Shanba is scum, then obviously he would have to claim a pro-town role to refute SilverPhoenix. Given our apparent knowledge of the set-up, that would be very, very risky, I think. It's also possible that if Shanba is scum that voting for Natirasha is a way of bussing someone who's a likely lynch.

That pretty much answered it. There is no evidence that Shanba was a blocked scum because of the existence of the doctor.
Also, I'm not voting just yet, considering Nat hasn't posted anything in defense in a while.

[SilverPhoenix]

Great game guys! I've been following it closely since I died. At first, I was going to scream at the "doc" for not protecting the obvious target. But then I realized the possible gambit on germy's part, and waited for the town to figure out the rest of the scum. Of course, then I was worried that you guys couldn't nail down the last scum. But good job anyways!
Yeah, I decided to block Shanba again N2 because I felt blocking him was better than guessing and possibly hitting the nonexistent doc (thanks germy ). After I died, I figured that they either switched who sent in the kill or blocked me to prevent me from blocking the kill. I am just glad I blocked Shanba N1, as that pretty much enabled the game to turn out the way it did. I was just sad I didn't leave to see it.
This was probably my best game, so thanks to everyone in it, including iamausername for great modding!

[SilverPhoenix]

EDWOP: lol@iamausername. Jumping right on the mini theme queue after your game ends.
j/k

[SilverPhoenix]

What was thought of my "Nurse" claim at the time, and was I anywhere near the mark with my gambit?

The gambit turned out nicely, but I was somewhat furious as to why I was killed when there was a doc....but that was okay for the sake of the gambit.