Invitational 10: 2005-2006. Game over! before 624

[Xylthixlm]

Hello all. Since this game has gone on for 4 months and 39 pages and we're still at day 1, it's clear that nothing interesting has happened, so I'm not going to bother reading.

In fact, I'm also not going to bother thinking.

Vote: elvis_knits

because DGB has an excellent point on pablito. Also, this game needs more mindless bandwagon voting.

[Xylthixlm]

CrashTextDummie, why are you voting bluesoul?

[Xylthixlm]

Because I think he's scum. Why are you not voting Bluesoul?

Because I don't want a deadline no-lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

I like fast games. They make it easier for me to find scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I like fast games. They make it easier for me to find scum.

Can you explain this please?

I've played over 1000 games of mafia on IRC, and 4 here.

[Xylthixlm]

Extremely disappointed in Xyl, but not convinced that his actions mean anything at the moment.

They mean something.

Also, I didn't know a Xyl existed until he arrived in this game.

And yet, someone nominated me...

[Xylthixlm]

If the first 39 pages were informative, why hasn't there been a lynch yet?

[Xylthixlm]

elvis_knits looks like an okay lynch. DGB doesn't yet.

[Xylthixlm]

CTD is being aggressive. It's a null tell but can mask other tells.

[Xylthixlm]

My scumdar just spiked on DGB.

[Xylthixlm]

hasnt posted anything over a sentence or two. Saying that shes actually scumhunting is ridiculous.

I object.

[Xylthixlm]

It's time to consider voting your second or third choice. Last minute lynches hurt the town.

[Xylthixlm]

Elias defends himself too aggressively.

unvote, vote: Elias

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, what do you think of DGB? In a recent survey, four out of five scummers found her scummier than Folger's Crystals.

I like her attitude. Post 1015 pinged my scumdar, but I find elias scummier. I would vote DGB if the alternative was no lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

MrBuddyLee is town. Good questioning.

[Xylthixlm]

Meta is a crutch. Meta based on reading only is a crutch made of jello.

[Xylthixlm]

How does aggressive defense help the town?

[Xylthixlm]

If playing scummy as town for meta reasons is valid play, then lynching people who do so for meta reasons is also valid play.

Vote stays.

[Xylthixlm]

An aggressive defense says that you're more worried about not being lynched than about finding scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Arguments against each other will only show who's better at saving their skin.

Elias and DGB, if you knew you had just been hit by a 24-hour delayed daykill with no way to save yourself, what last words would you leave to help the town?

[Xylthixlm]

I will never, ever remove a vote from someone just because they called an argument against them "bullshit". Would you?

[Xylthixlm]

If "bullshit" is not helpful to the defense, it only shows that you're worried about not being lynched. QED.

[Xylthixlm]

Elias and DGB, if you knew you had just been hit by a 24-hour delayed daykill with no way to save yourself, what last words would you leave to help the town?

Um...in case of a 24 delayed daykill I would post as much analysis as I have and attack DGB some more.

Nice evasion.

[Xylthixlm]

Chat games make natural tendencies clearer because people have less time to think. My experience in chat is that scum's gut reaction is to be more defensive than townies. I see evidence of that gut reaction in elias.

[Xylthixlm]

Arguments against each other will only show who's better at saving their skin.

Elias and DGB, if you knew you had just been hit by a 24-hour delayed daykill with no way to save yourself, what last words would you leave to help the town?

Kill elvis, kill MBL, kill Elias, in any order you want, but kill them and kill them mercilessly. If even one of them turns up town, drink bluesoul's blood.

If we lynch DGB we will waste this excellent information which could be put to use day 2.

[Xylthixlm]

My meta is to not meta.

[Xylthixlm]

Go read my other games if you don't believe me. I'll wait.

[Xylthixlm]

If I had a vote for every time elias used his "meta" as an excuse, he would be lynched by now.

[Xylthixlm]

I never said I wouldn't move it back at deadline.

Does "at deadline" mean 5 days before the deadline?
24 hours before the deadline?
1 hour before the deadline?
1 minute before the deadline?
1 minute after the deadline?

[Xylthixlm]

My experience in chat mafia has been that certain types of defensive behavior

are

scumtells. Not defense in general, but specific types of defense. That's what I see in elias.

[Xylthixlm]

elvis_knits is right about DGB's behavior being scummy though.

[Xylthixlm]

MBL's behavior makes sense if he is scum and knows DGB isn't.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not sold on an elias lynch. The case against him is basically "you're defensive and not scumhunting" which as he says is his meta as town or scum.

He says

he acts the same as town or scum, and you believe him?

elias is the "easy vote" right now, which is something to be wary of. We'd get a fair amount of info from an elias lynch--CTD and elvis, even bluesoul have taken strong stances and DGB is pushing him based on no evidence.

In other words, he looks scummy and lynching him will give information. Sounds like a good case for lynching him.

[Xylthixlm]

FOS: xyl

for walking the tightrope. Take a stand on DGB--I'm trying to. elvis has, a few others have.

"Reply hazy, try again later."

[Xylthixlm]

Considering he just got into the game, 6/10. Can you elaborate on elias's "specific type of defensiveness"?

I'm having a hard time describing it. Scum tend to react emotionally to being voted at fewer votes than a townie would. They're also more likely to treat arguments against themselves differently from other arguments.

[Xylthixlm]

Maybe I can sum it up like this:
Scum are

worried that they will be lynched

.
Town are

worried that the town will mislynch

.

[Xylthixlm]

I do not meta people except on the basis of games I have actually played in. I also never take someone's word on their own meta.

Incidentally, my meta is that I always play perfectly as either town or scum, so anything that looks like a scumtell really isn't. Ask anyone who's played on #mafia.

[Xylthixlm]

You think I'm joking? bluesoul, back me up here.

Also, don't ignore the first part of my post.

[Xylthixlm]

Sigh. I should just resign myself to very-last-minute deadline lynches.

[Xylthixlm]

I'd vote for Lowell if deadline wasn't so close.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote Elias, vote Lowell

[Xylthixlm]

You need to keep me alive for one more day. Then all bets are off.

Is that a promise to claim tomorrow?

[Xylthixlm]

MBL, please stop derailing wagons when people fart out soft claims.

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

I will be voting Lowell tomorrow unless he full claims then.

unvote Lowell, vote Elias

[Xylthixlm]

Advance warning: I will consider anyone not voting one of the top three candidates at deadline to be voting "no lynch", and demand explanations accordingly.

[Xylthixlm]

At this point the only person I'm reasonably convinced is town is MrBuddyLee.

[Xylthixlm]

It seems like every scum who is lynched goes to the gallows convinced the case against them is bullshit and the town just got lucky.

Of course, it also seems like every townie who gets lynched thinks the same thing.

[Xylthixlm]

*sniff* Something smells funny. Kind of ... scum-like. Anyone else smell that?

[Xylthixlm]

Is it because you're afraid of Xyl, who threatened anyone not voting for the current top contenders? What's your reason? Do you want to keep your buddy alive, but still look good after she turns up scum?

By my count elvis_knits is one of the top contenders.

[Xylthixlm]

I haven't read DGB's softclaim, so I'm a bit reluctant here, but my general policy is to always push for a fullclaim.

[Xylthixlm]

And what about total refusal to claim?

Not claiming is better than a softclaim.

[Xylthixlm]

I insinuated I had a power role of the kind where claiming would pretty much have the same effect as being lynched. Lynching me outright would be more informative then claiming.

This excludes every power role I know of, including every role in viewtopic.php?p=439892#439892. (I wrote that role list.)

[Xylthixlm]

FYI, I'm hammering DGB if she gets up to 6 votes before she claims.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote, vote: DGB

It's like breaking open a pinata! Will there be candy inside?

[Xylthixlm]

Damn. I thought elias or elvis was the SK.

I don't recall bluesoul's play specifically (I don't operate off tells on specific players...), but I can believe that he doesn't bus players there.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, almost forgot.

vote: Lowell

. This vote isn't moving until Lowell full claims.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote Lowell

Vig is a stupid claim for scum, especially since there's one SK dead already. If he's faking it we'll find out quickly enough. Therefore I'm going to assume Lowell is town for today.

[Xylthixlm]

Information from the deaths:

MBL - Not much. He was very protown, and not aligned with other scum. Any interactions with him are probably null tells.

DGB - DGB's behavior was erratic enough that any attempts to divine the scum from what she said is pure WIFOM territory. Looking at other people's reactions to her will likely be informative.

chamber - chamber was playing? Not much info here.

[Xylthixlm]

A reread has nearly convinced me that elvis_knits is not scum with DGB.

Elias, have you found the third mafioso yet?

[Xylthixlm]

DGB's claim was the thing that tipped me over the edge to her being scum. I've seen supersaints, and I've seen people try to bluff supersaint, and her play was

clearly

the second. Once I looked at her through that lens it was easy to decide that lynching her if she didn't claim was the right play.

[Xylthixlm]

I read DGB as trying to bluff supersaint, or possibly trying to bluff batshit insane townie. Either way it wasn't a very convincing impression.

I'm amused by DGB's comment that "you don't want to tee [me] off" in 142. I don't think it's significant, but it makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.

I'd really like to see Elias make his case on pablito in a concise, non-wall-of-text post. There may be something there, but I generally consider the strength of an argument to be inversely proportional to the number of words needed to make it.

[Xylthixlm]

I like how Elias is trying to persuade people not to follow his vote.

[Xylthixlm]

Take everything he said about pressure votes and lurking when it applies to me. Then look at how he values those issues when applied to DGB. Last page I posted my case, with quotes of a couple of the things he said.

I'm up for lynching a lurker, but as long as it's one that I want lynched. CDB does not fit that bill.

I fail to see the problem? Elias?

[Xylthixlm]

CrashTextDummy owes us the results of that full reread.

HackerHuck hasn't said anything since day 2 started.

*poke*

[Xylthixlm]

I assume you're not stupid, therefore

vote: Elias

[Xylthixlm]

The quote from pablito is relevant to "pressure votes and lurking", and needs to be included in any analysis of how pablito "values those issues".

[Xylthixlm]

I was hoping Elias would clarify his case against pablito. Unfortunately, so far this game he seems intent on dodging my questions.

[Xylthixlm]

Frankly, that OGML post looks like perfect good sense to me. I might have said the same thing. Except the part about being a bad lurker.

I'm going to do a read this weekend and see if I can pull out some connections.

[Xylthixlm]

So, I'm finally reading parts of the game from before I joined. This is just too good to not poke at...

What part of "I'm not good at town" dont you understand?

Additionally, its part of my playstyle. Whether it helps the town is obviously debatable, but it helps me decrease the diference between my scum and town play. Thats why I do it, you can read several of my past games to see I do it on either side of the game.

You deliberately change your town playstyle to be more like your scum playstyle, and for some reason you're not good at town. I wonder if there's a connection here?

Seriously. It's clearly good for the town if the the other players can tell you're town - it raises the chance of lynching scum.

Playing to match your scum play hurts the town.

A thousand games of experience have taught me to always take anti-town play as a scumtell, no matter how good the excuse.

Vote on elias stays until someone else does something even more flagrantly stupid and anti-town.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm not entirely sure why that would make you more suspicious of him. Alot of people try to keep their town and scum play similar because they want to be unreadable; you can argue that's a mistaken policy, but that hardly seems relevant to his alignment here. Or are you saying that's something he's made up for this game only?

1) Scum

always

think that they would have done that as town too. It's almost never true.
2) Scum do scummy things more often than town do scummy things. Thus scummy things are scummy, even if townies do them too.
3) People who deliberately play in a way that hurts the town should be lynched for it, repeatedly, until they stop.

[Xylthixlm]

So I'm unsure, but there's at least two people (Xylthixlm and HackerHuck) who I'm more interested in.

Xyl I would be interested in, HH, not so much.

Interested enough to vote?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm voting him because he was defending himself aggressively, which I find scummy, and then defending

that

with an argument that's essentially "I deliberately play that way to make it harder to tell I'm town", which I find both scummy and anti-town enough to lynch for even if it wasn't scummy.

And now he's gone mysteriously quiet, which I also find scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

Oh, I see why you're confused. I was trying to get Elias to answer some questions so I could get a better read on him. His response was not the protown response I was hoping for, so I voted him.

[Xylthixlm]

And as for the rest of your reasons, why didn't you give them when you voted him?

Because I gave them at great length day 1, and I don't like repeating myself.

[Xylthixlm]

I love how the biggest point against me is that I hammered scum. You guys need to stop drinking the WIFOM.

I would be up for a HackerHuck bandwagon. I'm not sold on bluesoul at all.

I tried to do the guess-who's-scum-from-who-was-on-the-wagon thing after DGB came up scum (alluded to here), but my results were obviously wrong. I did see (Elias or elvis) + CTD as possible scumpairs, though. Might have to follow that a bit.

[Xylthixlm]

My biggest point against you is not that you hammered scum, it's that you hammered her as soon as she invited you to despite previously stating that you want everyone to take a stand or else suffer scrutiny.

Also that prior to that, you seemed to want to wagon everyone

but

DGB (Elvis, Elias, Lowell), while still voicing suspicion of her.

I have a longstanding policy of lynching anyone who self-votes. Why make an exception?

Interesting that you saw me in possible scum-pairs though, as I don't think you ever stated being suspicious of me. Do elaborate.

I'm suspicious of

everyone

, all the time, unless I say otherwise.

[Xylthixlm]

Start with the assumption that Elias is scum, look at the end-of-day votes, and try to find the likely 3rd scum. CTD jumps right out.

As for elvis+CTD, I don't really have a good argument there, and I'm actually thinking elvis leaning slightly town.

[Xylthixlm]

Elias
Elvis
Patrick
Pablito
CTD
HackerHuck
Xyl

Is this list in any particular order?

[Xylthixlm]

Suspicion roundup.

Current suspicions

bluesoul: Everyone but Lowell. Possible slight suspicion of elvis_knits(?)
Elias: pablito. Won't name a second choice.
elvis_knits: Patrick, Xyl. Town on pablito.
Lowell: Nothing.
Patrick: HackerHuck, Xyl. Town on Lowell, elvis, crash.
pablito: CTD, HackerHuck. Town on bluesoul, elvis_knits.
CTD: bluesoul, HackerHuck, Xyl.
HackerHuck: Elias, pablito. Opinion on elvis flips town->maybe scum(?)

End of day 1 suspicions

bluesoul: CTD-DGB-Lowell
Elias: pablito-DGB. Also voted Lowell.
elvis_knits: Patrick, Lowell, Xyl. Town on bluesoul, pablito.
Lowell: bluesoul, elvis_knits, Elias
Patrick: DGB, elias, bluesoul, Xyl.
pablito: Elias, Lowell. Town on chamber. (Let me add that finding actual scumminess opinions in pablito's wall-of-text is hard work.)
CTD: bluesoul. No other apparent suspicions.
HackerHuck: Elias, pablito.

[Xylthixlm]

Yes, I figured out the order in bluesoul's list.

pablito's switch in emphasis on who he finds scum is interesting. I'd like some explanation there. Overall pablito seems to be posting lots of text, but not voicing much in the way of concrete suspicions. Scummy.

I find CTD's laserlike focus on bluesoul late day 1 disconcerting, especially since the wagon was obviously not going anywhere. Makes perfect sense if the scumteam is CTD/DGB/Elias; less sense for CTD/DGB/anyone else, as he would be able to hop to the Elias wagon.

An elias/pablito/DGB scumteam would mean that all the scum were voting other scum at the end of D1. Not impossible, but very unlikely.

Lowell, just because everyone thinks you're town doesn't mean you shouldn't keep scumhunting.

bluesoul, what happened to your suspicion of CTD?

[Xylthixlm]

I was

only looking for suspicions expressed just before the end of day 1

, as should be clear from the label "End of day 1 suspicions". At that point you

were

focused on bluesoul. I only saw one minor jab at MBL, and it wasn't enough to make my list.

[Xylthixlm]

Also, it shouldn't be any surprise that my analysis "fits in neatly" with the evidence it's based on.

[Xylthixlm]

What is the point of your list?

Partly checking for changes in opinion, and partly checking for people who are avoiding expressing concrete suspicions. I find it useful to occasionally ignore the arguments and only look at what is being argued.

But your question raises another question: Do you have a problem with me scumhunting in general, or do you only have a problem with it when I find you scummy?

[Xylthixlm]

The fact that you were suspicious of MBL but "not confident enough anymore that [MBL is] scum to really push it today" (1208) is noted.

The fact that your reaction to me indicates that you consider me an enemy is also noted.

[Xylthixlm]

unvote Elias

. I succumb to peer pressure.

vote HackerHuck

. I've got a feeling here. Also scummy: pablito. Not very scummy: Lowell, bluesoul.

[Xylthixlm]

I still think elias is scummy, but none of the potential scumteams including him make sense. Plus, your analysis was pretty convincing.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm ambivalent about a mass claim.

[Xylthixlm]

The hacker wagon is decent. I'm still not ready to let elias off the hook, though. He did more derailment than patrick mentions prior to DGBs lynch.

Do you have any guesses for who might be scum with Elias?

[Xylthixlm]

We need two more votes on HackerHuck.

[Xylthixlm]

I find pablito's explanation convincing enough for now. Elias, what do you think?

[Xylthixlm]

Are they more scummy or less scummy than people who don't respond to suggestion of a mass claim at all?

[Xylthixlm]

Actually I have no idea how Shea sets up games. On the other hand, I'm pretty good at breaking setups.

[Xylthixlm]

By the way, D2 has been going for almost 3 weeks, why are 4 people not voting?

QFT

[Xylthixlm]

My choice would be one of {Elias, pablito, CTD}. I don't have a clear preference among those three right now.

[Xylthixlm]

The thought that we might lynch two scum in two days, and then vig a townie who was on both scum bandwagons, amuses me terribly for some reason.

[Xylthixlm]

I keep forgetting Patrick is in the game. I think he has some sort of ignore-me field.

[Xylthixlm]

Mafia doctors are not unheard-of.

[Xylthixlm]

Btw, is not wanting to be vigged scummy?

My first reaction was that a misvig is the same as a mislynch. On the other hand, I think vigging an ultrascummy player and lynching a slightly less scummy player generates more information than the other way around, so if you're pretty sure you would be lynched anyways, you might as well just get vigged.

Of course, it's really up to the vig.

How come I never get vig on forum games?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm a bit surprised nobody's hammered HH after the vanilla claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Better yet, try to kill scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Having power is a downside?

[Xylthixlm]

I have no objection to a mass claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Just saying I'm here and waiting my turn to claim.

[Xylthixlm]

elvis, you're supposed to save those observations until after

everyone

has claimed.

[Xylthixlm]

How many scum do you think are in this game? Two are dead already.

That's an observation I'm saving for after everyone has claimed.

[Xylthixlm]

Sorry forgot to tell mine. Rosso Carne. Cannot doing anything else - vanilla with a lynch restriction. Lynch does not go through if I place a hammering vote.

What happens if you hammer? Does day continue?

[Xylthixlm]

I am a nameless newbie.

Having pablito try to hammer himself is the obvious play for today. If he refuses I have no qualms with lynching him.

[Xylthixlm]

A side note: from the setup, I'd hope we have only two mafia and a serial killer, but there's no harm in looking for a third mafioso just in case lynching pablito doesn't end the game.

So, today should go something like this...
* Arbitrary amount of stalling.
* Run pablito up to L-1. Patrick must be one of the votes.
* Pablito self-hammers.
..* If the hammer counts: We lynched pablito, scum.
..* If the hammer doesn't count: Lynch patrick.
..* If someone else hammers before pablito: Lynch them, then lynch patrick if pablito wasn't scum (or vice-versa).

[Xylthixlm]

bluesoul makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Oh, and I forgot in my previous post:
..* If pablito refuses to hammer after a reasonable time, we lynch him (and the point about someone else hammering doesn't apply.)

[Xylthixlm]

Mod, official vote count please?

[Xylthixlm]

bluesoul's analysis is reasonable. I was working along the same lines myself. There is one big problem though, addressed later.

bluesoul isn't actually 100% confirmed; there's the outside possibility of a tracker and one-shot vig as the only town power roles vs 4 scum.... Yeah, I don't think I'm buying that one. bluesoul is town, one way or another, or this setup is incredibly unbalanced.

The big problem: Say we lynch pablito and he's town, and there are 2 scum left. Scum kill bluesoul overnight. We lynch patrick (easy). Scum kill me overnight. That leaves elvis, elias, and CTD, with no one confirmed. So the pablito-town case isn't actually very good; we don't have enough confirmed innocents to stand the kills.

I do think that patrick's role claim is intuitively more likely in this game than pablito's. However, if pablito passes the test, that argument gets shot down...

I think pablito being lying scum who will fail the test is by far the most likely option. If he passes I'm going to have to do some rethinking.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't see how two investigations on one person covers for a possible GF, given that the scum gets to choose which investigative role to kill.

patrick and bluesoul each picking one of {elias, elvis, CTD} independently and not saying who until tomorrow seems like a better plan.

[Xylthixlm]

Actually, I see the real advantage of your plan: the scum can't guess who each of you would investigate and kill the one they think is more likely to investigate them.

[Xylthixlm]

It's not really cumbersome as a scum quirk. By endgame, the scum would have probably claimed that quirk and people would be aware of it. Asking someone else to unvote wouldn't really seem weird.

Agreed. Once it's claimed, I think the only impact being unable to hammer has is that it's verifiable.

Of course, if there are other roles that interact with hammering, it gets interesting. But I don't see that in this game.

[Xylthixlm]

Someone nominate a coordination target so I can put another vote on pablito.

[Xylthixlm]

Wow.

I'm really having trouble imagining that Patrick is falseclaiming tracker here; he's bound to be lynched for it if Pablito comes up town. I also don't think the mafia would have a tracker-framer, that's just cruel and unexpected. I can sort of see a mafia priest, but it's unlikely.

pablito scum is a bit more likely than Patrick scum, imo.

pablito's role is less useful for the town if he's town than Patrick's role is if he's town.

Balance of factors suggests lynching pablito here. But there's a good deal of WIFOM involved.

[Xylthixlm]

If Patrick is scum, the setup balance suggests that it's only 2 mafia and 1 sk. Which means we have time to lynch Patrick tomorrow if pablito comes up town.

vote pablito

[Xylthixlm]

5 players. 2 lynches left. 1 scum. If Patrick is lying, we have him for sure tomorrow. Besides, I really doubt he's lying.

Vote: Elias

[Xylthixlm]

Actually...

unvote

I want to hammer all three mafia.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: elias

for good measure.

[Xylthixlm]

Yes!

See, randomly hammering people with no warning

is

a valid protown play.

[Xylthixlm]

For the record, I never read the first 39 pages.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm like 71-Hour Ahmed. Once I know someone is scum, why let them live even an hour?

[Xylthixlm]

This game was a lot of fun, although the ending (elias caught by the tracker) was kind of anticlimactic.

I'd love to know the scum's reasoning for sending the godfather on a kill. You don't

do

that.

[Xylthixlm]

Short posts are an art form.

[Xylthixlm]

Rereading my play, I noticed that I had most of the scum pretty early, but discounted the scumteam because I didn't think all the scum would be voting each other... nice distracting by Elias and pablito. Eventually I'll learn not to look for scum in vote counts.

[Xylthixlm]

It's sad you guys won't be coming back but it was fun playing with you.

Same.