667: Random C9 (Game Over!)

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Hey everyone, I will catch up by Sunday at the latest.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Looks like there are some early fireworks in this game. I'm done with the first 3 pages, so I should be caught up relatively soon.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Unlike charter's position in Post 139 and afatchic's position in Post 141, I believe it's good to give opinions on everyone. The entire game of mafia is based on uninformed majority versus informed minority. In order to give the best chances to the town, there should be as much information as possible. Opinions on everyone not only shows info on the player with the opinions, but also info on that player's view relative to others. This can be helpful both in the day phase with analysis of player interactions and in the night phase where power roles decide who to target. While the scum also gain some information, that information can easily work against the scum because for example, a consensus protown player could get targeted by both scum and doc.

I don't really see the need to give my opinions on everyone. It will let scum know whether to keep my alive or not, if anyone wants my specific thoughts or something, I'm more than happy to provide them.

What if I asked you "Can you give me your specific thoughts on afatchic, Vi, Avynil, MM, Moospiker, and JDodge?"

So now my opinions on everyone, from most to least suspicious:

Avynil – Lurker-hunting in Post 69 when he isn’t that active himself. Quickly spread suspicion on 3 players (KR/Vi, afatchic, JD) seemingly trying to find what sticks. Did some flip flopping(Posts 81,100,120) on KR/Vi. Most scumtells out of everyone so far.

Charter – Under the radar for 3 pages then sticks on Moospiker for the subsequent 3 pages. May be scum lying low then being opportunistic.

JDodge – Mostly neutral read because most of content is heated exchanged with KR/Vi, only worrisome thing is generally brash statements at ends of a couple long posts.

KR/Vi – Same as JD basically. Like KR’s logical methods.

afatchic – Get most natural protown vibes from his posts, especially those on page 5.

Moospiker – Uncountered cop claim is the best protown signal thus far.

Thus,

vote: Avynil

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Mac- hope you don't mind me calling you that, or if you would prefer somethign else just let me know, but the chances of me spelling that thing out very much are slim too none.

Most people call me MM.

however i don't think it is a good idea for people that have played the whole game and have made there opinions pretty clear to make a detailed list of what they think of everyone at an L-1 position, or close. it just gives the scum way too much info to go on. say everyone puts one person on the bottom of each list, then the scum know that person will be hard to get lynched and should NK them to get them out of the way. and even though its likely that the doc would also decide to protect that person, there are no garuntees that we have a doc since only about half the possible roles have a doc in them.

Usually people address those who are scummy and suspicious. I rarely see anyone addressing all players through separate posts. So I think a list still helps in providing clarity and information. An additional benefit is that while one may think all his viewpoints have been expressed, doing a list can help refreshing thoughts and perhaps discovering new things that went unnoticed before.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Telling people my suspicions just makes me a target.

I feel quite uneasy about this statement. Vi why do you seem reluctant to expresses suspicions? You do know that is what the game mainly entails right?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

JDodge is being bumped up on my list because he recently made another rather rash statement about afatchic (Post 155), and then misrepresented afatchic (Post 160) while totally avoiding afatchic's question of "how i am obv. scum?" (Post 157).

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I also figured out a pretty damn good reason to not believe Moo's claim, Anyone think it's odd that he asks for a claim when he himself claims to be a powerrole? What was he hoping to hear? Oh, I'm the doc? Not protown in the least to out the doc. Possible there's a slim chance it's a second cop, but like I said, very slim.

There is an 86% chance that the setup will have a cop in it. I highly doubt Moo would be scum gambiting on claiming cop D1 and risking trading 1 mafia for 1 cop.
Plus, there is no direct relationship between asking for a claim and one's own role. I can easily see Moo reach the conclusion "Krisreizer is at L-1 already. Claim." regardless of whether Moo is vanilla, power role, or scum.
Also your conclusion "Not protown in the least to out the doc" would imply that in all situations in which player X is at L-1 and player Y is asking for a claim, player Y is antitown because he potentially could out the doc. That's absurd.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

i think i am going to go back and do a reread and go from there.

however im going to have to go back and look at his recent posts along with everyone elses to be able to decide where to go from here

Unfulfilled promises?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@Machiavellian-Mafia: Where are those quotes from?

Posts 146 and 150, respectively.

Mod

: In the vote count, the second line still has KrisReizer instead of Vi.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I no longer have an neutral read on Vi, but rather a positive one since he has been a consistent contributor after replacing into the game.

On the other hand, my top suspicion is still Avinyl.

Mod:

is Avinyl getting replaced?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Yes, Avinyl has been replaced. Are you still suspicious? How is Avinyl's absence a scumtell now that I have replaced him?

I've illustrated my reasons for suspicions of avinyl in my first post after replacing, which have been reiterated by others as well. I never considered the absense a scumtell, but rather something that is not helping him bring down my level of suspicion of him. That was why I reiterated that Avinyl was my top suspect.

@afatchic: I count 5 posts since you used "school is rough" excuse. Don't you think you could have used the time for that 5 posts on the reread you promised?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

My understanding - and it isn't just MM who articulated this - is that Avinyl's failure to respond to questions (although I don't actually see many questions unanswered - at least partly because he hasn't been posting recently so there is nothing for people to ask about) is making him look scummy.
Perhaps charter or Vi would like to comment more on that point.

I illustrated things that make Avynil look scummy below:

Avynil – Lurker-hunting in Post 69 when he isn’t that active himself. Quickly spread suspicion on 3 players (KR/Vi, afatchic, JD) seemingly trying to find what sticks. Did some flip flopping(Posts 81,100,120) on KR/Vi. Most scumtells out of everyone so far.

Currently like elderad and JDodge as the scumpair.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Why JDodge?

Combination of things I have said before:

only worrisome thing is generally brash statements at ends of a couple long posts.

JDodge is being bumped up on my list because he recently made another rather rash statement about afatchic (Post 155), and then misrepresented afatchic (Post 160) while totally avoiding afatchic's question of "how i am obv. scum?" (Post 157).

and the fact that I have more positive read on you.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Just for a heads up, elderad has 3 votes and is at lynch -1. I still very much like my elderad vote, so the only thing that could sway me the other way is a claim.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I looked at JDodge's activity on the site. Excluding his most recent "be back tomorrow" message, which was essentially a non-post, he had around

80 posts

on various other threads since his October 7th post. Not posting because of time constraint reasons is understandable, but avoiding the game while having tons of time is a significant scumtell. So now JDodge is a very solid #2 suspect for me, only slightly behind elderad.

Big FoS: JDodge

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@Vi: What are your views/levels of suspicion on elderad and JDodge?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I'm doing a reread of this game, done by tomorrow at the latest.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

M-M, your perspective on the objections I raised would be nice, since apparently I was defending you

I thought your argument with elderad ended up as pretty much a tie.

Run numbers. See what each setup says for 2 mafia goons, and goon-RB. I think under the goon-RB setup it would be a worthwhile gambit for the scum. Same under 2 goons. You're also underestimating the power of outing the cop in either of those setups, not to mention that the 1-in-7 possibility of double-cop would discourage a cop counter-claim plus make the cop fakeclaim a lot more tempting for the scum.

So are you saying that it's always worthwhile for scum to cop-gambit no matter what the setup is?

---

So after my reread here is my updated suspicion list from most to least with comments:

Elderad - In addition to actions of his predecessor, I find the timing of elderad's votes on afatchic and charter to be troubling, more so for afatchic. In both cases it seemed like he tries to get his feet wet in expressing suspicions and then pounces with votes when the suspicion for both had increased to levels that make his votes look better.

JDodge - I consider the avoidance-of-game-while-very-active-elsewhere scumtell to be quite reliable. I eagerly await his promised expanded case on afatchic.

afatchic - I can buy some aspects of the lack-of-scumhunting case against him, especially since he kept breaking his promises for scumhunting contribution even though he had the time to post many times about smaller matters.

charter - Although I don't agree with it, charter's stance on afatchic is understandable. I actually think the recent instances of frustration in his posts is a town tell.

Vi - Most town tells out of everyone.

Moospiker - Cop claim still very solid. However is currently on a worrying trend of making non-contributive and unhelpful posts (e.g. 226, 249, 268, 270, 273).

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@mod

: Are Vi and elderad voting for two different charters?

@Moospiker: Who do you suspect more between elderad and charter?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

With the current state 3 out of 7 players essentially non-existent (afatchic, JDodge, Moospiker), this game going won't go anywhere.

Plus JDodge has now broken his promise of analysis on afatchic. I'm now equally willing to lynch JDodge as elderad.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

MM, how would you characterise charter's play Today? Are you satisfied with charter's breadth and depth of scumhunting?

The best word that comes to mind is consistency. Charter stood by the issues that he took a stance on such as only focusing on suspicious people, maintaining no-claimed-power-role-lynched-day-1 while emphasizing Moospiker-scum, and explaining the afatchic-town-but-lynch-will-provide-info rationale. So in connection with that, yes I am satisfied with charter's scumhunting because he has stuck to his guns in attacking Moospiker and Avinyl/you extensively.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Mod:

what's the current status on prods and possible replacements?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Another week of absense from JDodge is the last straw for me. I'd say theres at least a 90% chance he's scum. Plus it's better to have an active player alive (i.e. elderad).

Unvote, Vote: JDodge

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

#2. Mach-Maf: Meta me. Thanks.

No thanks. I don't consider meta to be a valid defense. I evaluate this game only.

@M-M: Are you satisfied with JDodge's input?

Although finally seeing some content from JDodge is nice, those couple posts aren't changing my views about him.
I find it hard to believe that if JDodge was town, it would take him 4 weeks to elaborate on his initial vote of afatchic when he originally said "If you can't see why afatchic is scum, you need to get glasses or contact lenses or laser eye surgery or euthanized".
On the contrary, I can see easily JDScum placing his vote on afatchic on that broad statement above, and then if needed, find whatever evidence against afatchic later.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

#2. Mach-Maf: Meta me. Thanks.

No thanks. I don't consider meta to be a valid defense. I evaluate this game only.

I am going to take that as a reason to mostly ignore your opinions, because if you can't see the value of meta in a game, you are more worthless than someone who never posts.

Go take a look at Mini 574 Portal Mafia. In that game I went after Flameaxe when he and many others used his meta as defense. I had none of it and eventually pushed enough to get FlameaxeScum lynched that contributed to a town win. That's just one example of where my stance was actually quite useful.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Congratulations. It worked. Once.

One example does not prove you at all correct, it proves that you got lucky once.

This is not a case of me getting lucky, but rather a case that confirms the underlying reasons why I think the meta-defense is invalid:

If Player X has a well-established meta M when X is town, there will always be incentive for X to also use meta M as scum to trick everyone and increases X's chances of winning as scum. Thus, meta M is not a valid reason that supports X being town.

Also, you expect me to go back and look at past games where your stance worked but you refuse to look at past games yourself?

Hypocrite.

See above. There's a distinction between using past games to determine town/scum and using past games to counter your point "if you can't see the value of meta in a game, you are more worthless than someone who never posts."

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@JDodge: Back to this actual game instead of our debate on meta theory, are you saying that when in a town "mindstate", you have a meta of ignoring a game while being very active in other threads?

---

I have noticed quite a reliable trend in which afatchic promises to reread to catch up and never delivers the promise. In earlier cases he used real-life constraints as an excuse, but in the most recent case he has posted over 30 tmes in other threads while ignoring this one, so clearly afatchic doesn't consider contributing to this game as a priority, which is very antitown. I wouldn't mind lynching afatchic now.

Big FoS: afatchic

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

After a whole month, the Jeopardy music is still playing for afatchic...

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I now consider afatchic's offenses to be even greater than JDodge's.

Unvote, vote: afatchic

@charter and elderad and Vi: what do three make of afatchic's continuous trend of delaying his promises and not delivering them?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

EBWOP: what do you three make of afatchic's continuous trend of delaying his promises and not delivering them

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Mod:

I am currently voting for afatchic, see post 332.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

MM calls fatchic out on not contributing (yes, that happens WHEN PEOPLE FLAKE)...MM calls fatchic scummier than JDodge. (This is a thinly veiled lurker lynch)

Characterizing afatchic as a flaker and lurker lynch does not do enough justice. Firstly, for the entire last month, afatchic had been continuously promising to give some serious analysis, but never manages to do so while posting on minor things to seem like he's contributing. So I thought he was likely to be lurking-in-plain-sight-scum. And what made this even worse was that afatchic was posting significantly in other games while avoiding and eventually giving up in this game, which signaled to me that he was not motivated to play as scum who is being attacked from multiple directions.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@Vi: elderad is currently my #3 suspect behind JDodge and kuribo. Given the deadline constraints I would not be opposed to lynching elderad or one of the other two.

While on that subject, I still like kuribo as my #1 suspect since the most important part of his analysis, Vi=scum, is something I strongly disagree with because I view Vi as the most not-yet-claimed protown player.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

While on that subject, I still like kuribo as my #1 suspect since the most important part of his analysis, Vi=scum, is something I strongly disagree with because I view Vi as the most not-yet-claimed protown player.

So you think Kris was protown, too?

I had a mostly neutral read on KR, but I see Vi's actions in this game to be protown. So my combined read on KR/Vi a protown one.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Mod:

Charter seemed to have two votes in the most recent vote count.
Also can you get a prod on elderad?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I realized a day or two ago that Machiavellian-Mafia has been coasting under the radar basically throughout, and all of his votes and significant suspicions have been against people who were unlikely to respond.
*Avinyl (eldarad)
*afatchic (kuribo)
*JDodge
*afatchic again
The abridged version of his commentary toward everyone who has participated is that they have seemed pro-Town to him (except eldarad until he voted to policy lynch JDodge). I don't like it.

I strongly object to your representation of all my votes/suspicions being against people who were unlikely to respond:

*Avinyl (eldarad) - At that time he hadn't been prodded/replaced yet. Plus I had several clear reasons illustrated in my first summary post.
*afatchic (kuribo) - My initial insistence for afatchic to fulfill his promises was more about wanting him to contribute, not expressing suspicions against him.
*JDodge - My attacks on JDodge actually contributed to his revival in game participation, the exact opposite of "unlikely to respond".
*afatchic again - I'll give this to you. His trend of inactivity and non-contribution was clear. I found that trend plus his activity in other games to be scumtells.

I also disagree with your second conclusion. In my first summary post I had charter as my #2 suspect and JDodge as neutral although they were active participants at that time. Then at the time of my second summary post, although 3 out of 7 players were inactive, I still had active elderad as the #1 suspect. Plus, the whole game I have only openly declared pro-townness in 3 instances (afatchic, charter, Vi) excluding cop-claim-Moo, which is hardly "everyone who has participated".

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@charter: Did you still think there was a good chance of Moo not being cop, ergo we could have lynched the replacement if your plan worked?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

By the looks of how this game is quickly grinding to a halt, I'm willing to move my vote to elderad fairly soon to put him at L-1.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Your first post: No. I'm basically notifying others that I'm ready to move forward unless someone still has something significant, such as willingness to vote for you.

Your second post: No. As I have said many times, elderad is one of my suspects, so if does come up town then I will be taking some of the blame.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

It more like your predecessor was very scummy and you haven't done anything to significantly quell the scumminess.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

By the looks of how this game is quickly grinding to a halt, I'm willing to move my vote to elderad fairly soon to put him at L-1.

Any update on this?

Obviously since scheherazade has replaced in, I want to hear what he has to say first.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@Scheherazade: Like I've said previously, what made afatchic and JDodge scummy in my eyes was not as simple as just inactivity, but rather the evidence that they weren't

motivated

to post and contribute.

@Vi: If you meant I wouldn't have waited, then the answer is yes.

I'm adequately satisfied with scheherazade's initial job replacing and have little doubt about his cop claim. So

unvote, vote: elderad

, which puts eld at L-1.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@Machiavellian-Mafia: Okay, fair enough. One more time, please, you view a lack of motivation to post as scummy because posting would involve scum-hunting, which is not in the scum's best interest?

I suppose I'm nervous about a few posts, including your individual post #32, where you list your top three suspects but don't include afatchic, for whom you were voting and your assertion that afatchic may have given up in this game because he was scum being attacked from too many directions.

The logic you are presenting is not the case. I'll make my stance as logically clear as possible:
:arrow: lack of motivation = intentionally not contributing
:arrow: intentionally not contributing = antitown
:arrow: antitown = scummy
:arrow: lack of motivation = scummy

In response to your second worry, kuribo = afatchic's replacement.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

not everything anti-town is scummy


for example, some players insist on pushing retarded logic during their games. They do this, even when town.

Does it hurt the town? Yes. So it's anti-town.

Is it scummy? No, because they're still town.


Lack of motivation can be for alot of reasons: Person burned out on mafia, person not being interested in a particular game, person thinking you're a douche. Lack of motivation in townies hurts the town, but that doesn't make the person scum. It just makes them lazy.

I define scummy actions as those that make me perceive the bearer of the actions to be more likely scum. So if someone keeps pushing retarded logic, I'll see them as scummy every time. Similarly with someone lazy and intentionally not contributing, I will see him or her as more likely scum.

A scummy behavior isn't just anything that harms the town.

The town can be harmed if a player decides to spam each page with 10 posts of the letter A.

Yes, it harms the town, but it doesn't help scum achieve their endgame either.

If something's scummy, that means it's something that scum do to ensure their victory.

So tell me how being lazy makes scum MORE LIKELY to win. What you're describing is a character flaw at best, not unlike my unending rage toward other players.

Lazy scum denies potential information to the town. Since town needs information to win, less information leads to more likely win for scum.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

What are you referring to in your statement "but not here"?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Fascinating.

Mach-Maf. You said that you consider it a significant and quite reliable scumtell here and here for someone to be posting tons in other places onsite, but not here. With that in mind, has your opinion on charter changed?

I don't see where charter has stopped posting or where charter was not motivated to post. I still see charter as the #4 person on my list, below my 3 suspects and above you and Sche.

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

@M-M:

Posting before prod. Waiting on charter.

Keep on waiting. Go ahead and keep your suspicions of me as well.

^^this^^

Again I don't really see anything wrong with this, especially in relation to my reasons for suspecting afatchic/kuribo and JDodge. It's highly unlikely that my vote will go to charter today unless something crazy happens like charter claiming scum.

So, I've been a L-1 or thereabouts for ages now, and I haven't been hammered yet. What do you all think that means?

If you are asking about whether scum are on your wagon or holding back, it's impossible to tell. Votes have been spread out pretty much all game, so I doubt a lynch will happen until significant pressure from the deadline kicks in.