Me either. Thanks for throwing something out there that will immediately cut through all the crap. That seems like a lot of thought put into the game before anyone ever made a post. I like that. Forgive me for keeping the possibility open that you're lying. =]germy wrote:not a fan of the ridiculous random-vote phase.
Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)
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CF Riot Mafia Scum
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CF Riot Mafia Scum
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@Artem:
Half of 12 is 6, (50%) so a majority would need to be 7 minimum.Artem wrote:Why is 7 the majority and not the usual 5?
False. Random example: DDDDVVM - 2 docs, back-up doc, vig and 1-shot vig, child, serial killer, 3 mafia. That only leaves 2 vanillas.Artem wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong but we also have a minimum of 5 vanillas, since only 7 letters are drawn.
For night 1, I agree.Artem wrote:If we have a vigilante(s), I suggest they don't night-kill, because . . . we have no way of distinguishing a vig kill from a SK kill; since SKhasto kill, i vote vigilante(s) don't (if we have them).
I don't really think that's true. He can assume he's helping scum while being scum himself, or be helping scum while being a SK.Artem wrote:I think I'm going toVote: Kairyuubecause he's contradicting himself. If you're arguing that somebody is helping scum by narrowing down the set of players that have full power roles, then you're assuming that the said person is town, but if they are town, you shouldn't be voting them.
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@All: Question, what is the down side to a mafioso claiming miller? Mykonian asked for a miller claim, which I'm not really for or against, but I was just wondering what keeps the mafia from doing this.
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@Charles: I haven't seen the new movies either. I like him as a comic book character.-
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CF Riot Mafia Scum
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I didn't ask you anything. No one asked you anything. ???ChuckNorris wrote:In answer to your question, . .<snip>
I don't mean by his own claim. After he claimed his back-up role, Germy suggested that all other back-ups claim as well. If he were scum, and if a true back-up did this, it would be the "eliminating power role possibilities" Kairyuu was talking about.Artem wrote:I don't think you can argue that the person is eliminating power role possibilities while being scum, though. Scum already know their buddy is not a power role.-
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----CF Riot wrote:Question, what is the down side to a mafioso claiming miller?
For those voting Germy: Whether or not the information he has posted benefits the town or scum more is debatable. Nightwolf and Kairyuu's arguments have me leaning towards it hurting the town more than it helps. Let's assume for arguments sake that his info does not help the town in any way. Do you find it more likely that he is scum running a gambit, or town unintentionally harming his teammates?-
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Chuckie can I get a response to this? I don't know how relevant it is, but it confuses me. A second clarification:CF Riot wrote:
I didn't ask you anything. No one asked you anything. ???ChuckNorris wrote:In answer to your question, . .<snip>
Is that post number correct? I don't understand what gambit you're talking about.ChuckNorris wrote:Post 28- I think that it could be a gambit being played. I think that it could be a potentially great move by scum. Or it could just be what he said. I think that WIFOM could be applyed here aswell.-
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I'm going to throw out the idea that if no one has claimed miller by the end of page 5, we don't have any. I don't know if 100% of the town is pro-miller claim, but I've yet to see anyone against it. The one useful thing about miller claims is it separates false investigations from real ones, so for a pro-town miller (which is all millers I guess) there is no reason to "hide" the fact that they are one. I think any miller claims after page 5 can be considered lies, with reasonable exceptions. Ex: "I hadn't posted since page 2, I didn't know!"-
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He means during the day. The SK should be trying to scum hunt and kill mafia during the day, to appear pro-town. He does not mean the SK should try to target mafia at night to appear pro-town.ChuckNorris wrote:Tbh, I don't think that the SK killing scum, will make anyone look that townie. If someone claimed they did it, it would be quite a big giveaway.
Artem wrote:Oh, and as far as the miller claims go..... from what I understand, we either have 3 millers or no millers. So the fact that nobody claimed miller at this point is probably a good indication that we have none.iamausername wrote:I will be running the setup exactly as shown here, with one exception:in the event of a setup generated with a single C, there will be a randomly generated number of millers between one and three, rather than a definite three as originally proposed.-
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That's fair. I am unsure, and I don't see any strong tells yet, which some people claim to see. There has been lots to comment on, but it's hard to separate the incriminating scum-move from the innocent-yet-odd-move. As has been said, it's only page 4 (now 5) so I can't tell what stands out the most. My LoS would be as follows:sekinj wrote:CF Riot – seems reasonable. However, he has not made any accusations directly against anyone. Most of his posts consist of questions to others, replying to questions, observations, or speculation about the setup. I’d like to see more regarding his opinions about other players.
I am suspicious of: CF Riot for not rocking the boat.
1) Kairyuu : Seems over-the-top. Very confident in his reads, when (personal opinion) I don't think the evidence is strong enough to support his case(s). He also looks like he's attacking easy targets. Germy is obvious. The whole thing with Afatchic was based on his opinion changing slightly over time, but the change matched the content posted in that time frame, and Afatchic has only been a member since Aug. of this year. Edify had 1 post, which said, "I like random voting, I'm going to random even though some info has surfaced." Also only been a member since Sep. 29th.
2) Sekinj - You refused to respond to SpringLullaby's vote. I think that given the chance, scum like to ignore accusations that they believe won't gain support, rather than try to refute them and consequently draw more attention to the matter. I caught a scum in my first game this way, with a prying question over a very small issue. He refused to respond because a few people had said the question was unfair, and it turned out he was scum.
3) ChuckNorris : Confuses me. That's really all I have on him. Something seems shady about him but I really have no hard evidence. He seems very middle of the road, sort of like the guy who just nods along no matter what exactly has been said, and I find that to be a tell, but at this point he could very easily just actually agree with everyone.
I wouldn't vote Sekinj or CN at this point because what I have is weak. I'llVote: Kairyuuto take a stance. I'd like more info before a lynch however.-
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@Sekinj: I understand your stance completely. That's why I said it's not a strong tell, and why I wouldn't vote you right now, even if I wasn't suspicious of Kairyuu. I never thought there was anything wrong with your original statement at all, but when Spring said there was, I expected you to answer right away. Your delay is what struck me as out of place. I can see innocent reasoning behind your reactions just as easily as scum motive, but that doesn't erase my suspicion altogether.
Why?mykonian wrote:unvote scigatt, vote afatchic-
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@Kairyuu: I have a post written which defends and expands on my case against you, and also refutes some of the things you've defended yourself with. I've sort of defended Afatchic in it though, and made some assumptions that he himself hasn't put out there. Post it now, or hold off until Afatchic defends himself in his own words?-
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Strongly disagree. I have a perfect example if you'd like a link. Just because town do it sometimes does not mean it cannot be used as a tell. You can argue that with me as much as you want, I flat out don't believe it.mykonian wrote:someone being overdefensive has NEVER been a scumtell.
As soon as Afatchic responds, my case against Kairyuu will come out. It's much more firm than anything I've posted so far. Again, I know I'm not laying down enough real suspicion, but I've gotta say I just don't think the evidence is there.germy wrote:I'm also leaning toward CF_Riot as possible mafia. Except for his vote on Kairyuu, which he admits it's just to take a stand, he hasn't actively pursued anyone.
QFT.Kairyuu wrote:I really dislike it when people answer questions for other people, because the accused can very easily adopt the provided answers.-
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I'm going to post my case now because I can't stand to wait any longer. I'm going to leave out the part that deals with Afatchic, but basically, it's me saying why I think your case against him is weak. I'll post it later, if Afat ever responds.
Really? That's his mastermind attempt to stop all the pro-town conversation? Confuse us with random votes?Kairyuu wrote:Edify I FOSed because he tried to reinstate random voting after it was over.
False. Edify joined September 29th, two days before the game began.Kairyuu wrote:The time they have been around means nothing, because Edify joined 2 daysbeforeme
Surely you don't really believe this. They're not concrete of course, but almost nothing in this game ever is. Still, you can't seriously tell me a person's relative experience means nothing in judging their actions. Maybe Edify is a mafia expert who has played for years under a different handle, and made that account just to come play in this game with the advantage of appearing like a newbie. Maybe he actually is a newbie, and wanted to random vote because as far as he knows, that's what you do at the beginning of a game. Which do you think is more likely?Kairyuu wrote:Plus, join dates mean nothing, because you don't know how much mafia experience people have off site.
Also not entirely true. I didn't look it up but I know for a fact that I never attacked him on it, and I have thought he is more likely town than scum from his first post on. However that detail is minor. The point that I need to refute here is, I don't find you suspicious because you attacked Germy. I would find it very strange if no one attacked him. I find you suspicious because you attacked Germy AND Edify AND afatchic so hard over such weak evidence. I personally think Sekinj was your strongest case, but at the time you FoS'd him it was for "active lurking to the extreme" on page 3. You're trying too hard to make cases out of thin-air.Kairyuu wrote:And as for my attacking germy, so did everyone else except afatchic and edify, so why is it only me that strikes you as suspicious for doing so?
Also, on the null tell thing. I think scum over-react worse, and more often than town to accusations made against them. I also think that in the context of the game, a person can reasonably judge whether the reaction is scummy or not by the way they do. I'll try to come up with an example of each, to show the difference if you want.-
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Sekinj's vote looks like a wagon-hop to me. All the justification for the vote looks good, but he wasn't the first to say it AND he made 2 posts after that quote by Kairyuu, before posting this logic and voting him.
Mykonian's strange, blatant defense of Kairyuu is throwing me for a loop. I'm not sure if I think it's scummy though. Some of it makes sense.
Can you verbalize this a little more? How, why, etc.?springlullaby wrote:Germy, germy, you're pinging my scumdar.-
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1) Edify: Okay, your pretty much agreeing with me. My point is you're jumping on a lot of people for weak reasons, and you said since it was just a FOS, it was admittedly not very strong.
2) Join date: It's not supposed to be a point against you, I just needed you to know he was in fact a newbie. A fresh one at that.
Oh, come on! IKairyuu 3) wrote:The simple fact that both of your situations are possible, no matter how unlikely, means that you can't judge people by their join dates.knowyou don't believe that. That's what this entire game is based on, judging how likely and unlikely two possibilities of the same situation are. You can throw out join dates if you want, sure. That logic is completely backwards though and you know it.
4) Who's attacking Germy: There doesn't have to be evidence that I thought he was town, I'm merely proving that not everyone you claimed was attacking him actually was. You made it seem like the only two not going after him were two of your suspects, and I knew that to be false.But, you've said this isn't really important and I've said this isn't really important, so I propose we drop it.
5) My point: You're attacking what I consider (opinion) a large number of suspects with what I consider (opinion) very little real evidence.
Your own words: "it was quite early in the game, and there was very little strong evidence to go on. So of course my arguments were somewhat weak."
You think this is not a tell, I think it is. This is still why I'm suspicious of you.
And what is your opinion? Unchallengeable truth? I'll look for your examples now, although I can already see that they won't prove anything. You've said if two things are possible it's a null tell no matter what the likelihood of either is. This is where we disagree. Over-reacting is just one manifestation of the larger form we disagree on. Also, I doubt your example will prove anything to me, but I'm hard-headed so it's probably better that you bring it up anyways.Kairyuu 6) wrote:I would have to say that your opinion is merely that, an opinion.
This is the part where I grumble a lot because I feel like I'm right and you're wrong, and yet I'm going tounvoteyou. Your whole claim situation seems very shady, but claims are claims and I think they carry weight. I'd rather you not claim today, but Germy has called for it. You're losing votes so I guess it's up to you.
My new top suspect is Sekinj. I thought the way Sekinj jumped on the Kair wagon was questionable and I think the bail off of it, with no questions asked and no new discussion on any point, is another scummy move.Vote: Sekinj
I still think there is no case against Afatchic, but admit he is lurking badly. I will not vote him without some defense, no matter how long he lurks. (Day 1 anyways.)-
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CF Riot Mafia Scum
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What difference would it make if you were specific or not? You already claimed "power role", which for me is enough to not lynch you. It wouldn't make the slightest difference to me if you were a cop or a vig or a mason, because all of those are on the town's side, and regardless of what you can do, if you're town I want you alive.Kairyuu wrote:I made it blatently obvious that I had a power role, and you would rather let it go to the Night without knowing if I could back up my assertions? If you are town, you want to know what I am so that you can know whether or not to trust me.
I (as town) would rather you not tell exactly what you can do, because that gives the mafia a better idea of how to deal with you. Example, if you were the cop, mafia might try to block you instead of kill you, knowing a doc may protect you tonight. If you were the doc, mafia would have the option of straight up killing you (with less fear of being stopped by a doc) or of blocking you to get to a higher profile target. If you reveal nothing, the mafia doesn't know exactly what to do. In the event that you are a mason, and if you didn't claim, and if you got NK'd, we'd still know you were a mason when you died so it would still confirm whoever else claimed mason later in the game. Basically he gains nothing by you being more specific. By admitting what you are and by asking him to come out with it too, you're just putting both of you in danger rather than just yourself.Kairyuu wrote:If you are scum though, you want me to give as little information to the town as possible so that you can kill me without as much risk of a doc protect (assuming there is a doc). That way, there is no possibility of my claim confirming anyone else (in the case of my being a mason). HOS: CF Riot
Back to other business, the reason I'm defending afatchic is because I don't think you have anything at all against him. The lurking issue actually is bad, but you pressed him before that happened, so I took it as you trying to build a case on nothing. What I said simply meant that I'm not going to vote for him for lurking alone. If he starts posting and there isrealevidence to go on, I could change my mind, but I don't think your case holds water and if that and lurking are the only two points against him at deadline, I'll have my vote somewhere else. Since you're almost confirmed now, I wish you'd broaden your scope a bit because that gives me reason to vote with you, but I positively do not like the afat case, even knowing that you're town. (And obviously, I'm not going to vote for myself either.) I think Sekinj could be a good lynch, and I'm considering Artem after a reread, now that you're claimed mason.-
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I just realized I didn't clarify, but all the cop/doc/mafia RB talk in my last post is hypothetical, not speculation. =Edit= Kairyuu just posted about that. I can't say I didn't have that one coming.
I think I have my Scum Over-reaction Vs. Town Over-reaction post ready. The examples I will be using are very convenient for this argument. Both examples are of a user named Charter. The first is Charter as scum, in the first attempt at Mini 611. After gaining 2-3 votes, Charter gets really peeved, and you can tell by his posting.- Me asking Charter a simple question. This is what led to the case against him, and his eventual over-reacting. X
Charter: Refuses to answer the question. The post after this, I get on him about that being scummy. X
Charter really gets steamed. As you can see in the next post, he only has 3 votes at this point. (He eventually maxes out at 4.) X
More backlash at me. Now it's less anger, and more resigned spite for the people who've found him out. X
- Hadhfang puts vote 3 on Charter. X
Page 4 has 4 responses from Charter, and none of them have that same biting attitude as his previous game. He had 3 votes throughout this page. X
Another post from page 6. Still 3 votes, still no over-reaction. After this point, suspicion of Charter dies down with him never really being annoyed at it. X
@Kairyuu: I guess 5 people is a pretty big number. It just feels smaller than that to me because I take out Afatchic and myself, and really Germy too since I've thought of him as town all day so far. I didn't think your FOS on Sekinj stood because you said something about waiting for his next post.-
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Not in this situation. Yes, I can see where if someone's drawn a lot of heat and then says, "I'm a power-role, but don't ask me what kind," that is shady and probably an attempt to avoid counter-claims. This situation felt different to me because Kairyuu was so up front about saying, "I can be confirmed if I need to. Yes I have a power-role. Yes I'll tell what it is." I guess to put it plainly, I believed him so I didn't need him to do anything else for me to trust him. Since that was the whole point of claiming in the first place, I felt like going the extra step and giving out more information would only help scum plan better.Artem wrote:It doesn't bug you that it could be a scum soft-claiming a power role without committing to one to leave as much flexibility for later as they can?
Wolf, Germy, who are you looking at now?-
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No I didn't. That was Kairyuu. Your explanation is just giving motive for the action, which can't be proven, so none of it really changed my mind at all.sekinj wrote:@Cf - no additional comments about your vote against me? You said you were waiting for my explaination and you have yet to address it.-
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Does it mean anything to you that I also defended Edify, and the defense of both Edify and Zade (formerly afat) were small parts of the larger "You're attacking easy targets," argument? Also, would it help if I posted that bit that was going to defend afat that I cut out before so that I'm not just spouting a baseless defense of another person, or would that just make things worse?
Unrelated, are you ever going to post your example of townie/scum overreaction, and did you ever look at my version? Did it make any difference to you? I don't think it has any relevance to this game anymore, but if you already did the work I wouldn't mind looking at it for a purely argumentative purpose. You can post it somewhere else (mafia discussion probably) if you don't think it's game-related anymore.-
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Sekinj, no question dodging please. A little more input from you would be nice.CF Riot wrote:Sekinj: Who's cases are you waiting to examine? What subjects would you most like to discuss at the moment?
Did a reread of Artem, and I don't really see anything suspicious there, but I was iffy about him earlier in the game so I guess now I'm neutral. I'm betting Sekinj is scum, and at least 1 of SP(alvin), Ku_F, or Scigatt are probably scum.-
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Kairyuu (in two separate posts) wrote:1)Afatchic buddied up to germy, and then backed off part of the argument when it seemed a bad idea.
2)I don't see how you can accuse me of misrepresenting afatchic. He madetwo posts that conflicted with each other. I pointed that out. Can you explain how that is misrepresentation?I know the question is aimed at someone else but it pertains to my case so I'm going to take a swing at it.I'm going to post both quotes in full so there can be no arguing over that point.afatchic wrote:okay i like the first post my germy. i don't think he is giving the scum to much info, since most likely they have a good idea about the roles already. and i also don't think it was a bad idea to come out with it since from what i got out of his post, it wouldn't be a good idea to NK him N1.i also agree that miller should claim now and it may help catch a scum early on.
i am also a fan of the RVS so Vote: Kairyuu
I don't see any contradiction here. The bolded clearly points out that he still supports the claim as he asserted in the first post, and he still supports miller claims as he asserted in the first post. The italicized part is (I believe) what you've been calling the conflict. I don't think that goes against anything he said in the first post. I think that upon his first reading of Germy's claim, it's very likely that he didn't consider the advantage scum would gain at hitting full-PRs from knowing who the back-ups were. After a few people pointed it out, I think he realized it was not a good idea and voiced that. However he never said anything supporting back-up claims in his first post, so I still don't see the conflict with the second.afatchic wrote:
not necessarilyalvinz95 wrote:Really don't like how you CLAIMED on page 1. This doesn't mean its scummy, but quite ridiculous actually. You just planted a bullseye on yourself if you are town for a nightkill. To me it seems you're trying to appear very townly with an overkilled beginning post full of stuff that should appear later naturally.
No random vote this time around.
i actually like the claim like that,however i don't think any other backup roles or anything should claim, buti still think miller should claim. and i don't really like how a couple people have attacked himbecause they think its more useful to the scum. all it does is give the town a better idea of the setup, since the scum should already have a good idea about it since they already know 1/4th of the roles. while it does give them a better idea later down the road on who a backup role might be, i don't think it hurts that much right now. and if he does get targeted tonight, then thats fine since a backup role is just a vanilla until the real PR dies.
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Sekinj: Sure thing, I'll be patient. Just doesn't seem right seeing posts about how cute someone's avatar is or isn't while you have questions pending. I understand work issues though, my bad. Don't forget though.-
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@Myko: I don't know if everyone's thought it this way or not but I'll clear it up now. I'm not saying afat/Zade is not scum. The only reason I was against that lynch was because Kairyuu and others were pushing it pretty strongly when I didn't see any evidence, so I though the push was scum powered. I still don't feel like what's been presented is any good, so I wouldn't vote him yet, but I'm not really against his lynch. I really liked Germy's claim at first too, but then once everyone said, "This is bad because X, Y, and Z," I thought, "Okay, it wasn't the best idea ever." For that, I didn't think afat was buddying.
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@SP: Argumentative can describe me, sure. I don't see what's negative about argumentative though.
On voting Sekinj, I felt like all cases at that point were weak. Weaker so than mine. I took the (also weak) spat with SL into account with this vote, and the relative lack of original opinions in the game to that point. I feel like Sekinj was echoing a lot.
Not related to me but what's more truthful about someone saying "I'm town" and someone else saying "I'm the cop, and he is town" than someone saying "I'm a mason" and someone else saying "Yup and me too"? You just said something about a cop confirming someone being really confirmed, but couldn't scum fake cop just as easy as fake mason? On this note, I believe Kairyuu and Myko because SO many things would keep them from reaching endgame as scum. If both of them are alive D3 I'll start scratching my head, but I'm pretty sure I believe them for now.
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@Kairyuu: Don't stress on those examples. I'm not worried about them for this game. You just seem very opinionated and I like arguing too.
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Now the big one. @Sekinj:
p0: Concede. As of now, I think Germy is most likely town. If not, I think it's much more likely he is a SK than mafia because of his claim hinting at the existence of a vig. Ambivalence gone.
p1: What's wrong with this? I seriously wanted to know. No one claimed Miller, including me, so why does this post make me scum?
p2: It confused me that he answered a question that didn't exist. It made me think he was newb scum itching to get his opinions out there so he could control the situation. On the early LoS, I said it wasn't scummy, just confusing, and I wouldn't make a case out of it.
p3: Weighing in on opinions at hand. Nothing to defend really so I'll concede.
p4: Was the point not valid?
I didn't do this, so you can't say I'm scummy because ISekinj wrote:What was the point of this? So that if anyone claimed miller later he could point back and say it was already scummy?could havedone it.
p7: Again, I said it was weak when I pointed it out. I even told you the reason it mattered to me was related to how I found Charter as scum, and you say you've read the game where I did, so this should make sense to you.
p12: I have also never addressed: afatchic, SP(until this post), or Scigatt. Why does this make me scum? The actual quote:
Where is the coaching in that? I make no comment about the statement.CF Riot wrote:
Can you verbalize this a little more? How, why, etc.?springlullaby wrote:Germy, germy, you're pinging my scumdar.
p14: When I said "I'm considering Artem after a reread," it meant that I would consider Artem as a suspect after I made a reread that had not happened yet. I did not mean that I had already done one, or that I was leaning towards Artem-scum.
I'll do a PBPA back at you to keep up with the curve of mega-posting in this game and support my case, if I can find any valid evidence. I'll admit, what I have on Sekinj is mostly a feel, and not evidence heavy, but I'm tending to believe in this game both are of (relatively) equal value. Last thought on Sekinj, you're still not voting anyone. Any other suspects?
p15: How does this make me scum?
p16: Those two had votes prior to the Kair/Myko mason-claim. After the claim, they unvoted but didn't revote. This is why I asked them.
p18: Thiscanbe interpreted as a push to vote, although I will state I did not mean it that way. I was asking why you weren't voting, because I think you're scum trying to vote with the crowd.
p20: This was not an appeal to the town, as it was mainly directed at Kairyuu (my main prosecutor) and whether or not you think my thoughts on afat are null is opinion. They apparently meant something to Kair, which is why they were posted. If I, for whatever reason, do things that cause me to be a suspect in this game, it's my job to explain those actions to keep myself from being lynched. If I'm lynched, I feel defeated for one, and the town loses a townie for two, so I'm obligated to do whatever I can to prove my innocence.
p21: A) and B) both explained by p14. I only did one reread of Artem, and I considered him neutral the entire time.-
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Working on it. It's a PBPA and I read slow, so it's taking a while. I'm at p20-ish of his posts in isolation.SilverPhoenix wrote:I would like Scheherazade, CF Riot, and springlullaby to bring a better case against Sekinj.
On Zade's case, that is very similar to my line of thinking around that time. I hadn't considered the contradiction between being cautious with a vote to her hasty Kair-hop, but the hop itself seemed suspect. I'm trying to finish this case soon, but I gotta say, I'm already finding things in it I missed before that are actually in Sek's favor. We'll hold that judgment until I'm done though.
5 days till deadline, Ku_F, Scigatt, and Wolf need to post more.-
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Sekinj: Passing Judgment on the First 41 Posts.
p0,p1,p2 - Filler posts. No real content.
p4:springlullaby #31 wrote:vote sekinjspringlullaby #34 'Why change your vote?' wrote:Because I didn't like sekinj post.
1. I don't see her walking the walk.
2. I don't see contradiction between scumhunting and random voting.
I don't see anything there to suggest it being a random vote, or a joke vote. I didn't find this that scummy to begin with.Sekinj wrote:@spring: lol - I'm goign to just chalk that up to a random vote and ignore it.
p6:
Sekinj doesn't respond to this at all. Also,springlullaby #38 wrote:Why the 'lol', what do you find humorous? Do you not agree with what I said? What would you do if it wasn't a random vote? It isn't quite.Riot #43 wrote:For those voting Germy:<snip>Do you find it more likely that he is scum running a gambit, or town unintentionally harming his teammates?
Echo. No original content.Sekinj #46 wrote:@everyone voting germy: Do you really think he is SCUM or do you just think his early claim and directing of the game was un-town?
p8 - Post #54 Sekinj finally responds to SL's post #38, after SL asks her why he's being ignored. Note, she does not address the statements made directly, however this is explained by "not understanding what the point is." That's a reasonable explanation at least, but it would've made more sense for this post to follow the question rather than be added 3 posts later.
p12 - Lists every player and gives a very brief comment on each. Interesting comment I hadn't noticed before, she actually seems to agree with me (to an extent) on the Kairyuu/Afatchic situation.
This makes me feel like I may have been wrong about her vote on Kairyuu being so opportunistic, since this post came before my own suspicion of Kairyuu had been posted.Sekinj wrote:afatchic – has made 4 posts. I DO NOT believe he is scum from those posts. I’d like to see a lot more from him to get a read. Yes, he seems wishy-washy, and indecisive, but such does not equal scum. Kair’s attack happened after only two of those posts and I believe is a big misrep.
Kairyuu – aggressive, but rash. Cannot stand to be wrong. Even the smallest mistake pointed out by others frustrates him. However, he frequently misrepresents others in his cases. He reminds me of a bulldozer. Everyone just wants to get out of his way. This makes it really hard to back him down once he has decided who is scum.
p21 - I really think the whole thing about ChuckNorris showing signs of an SK is a stretch. How would replacing out be any kind of indication? Minus this however, p21 is actually a good post.
p24:
This bothers me because before this, Sekinj had somewhat supported the assertion that the case against afat was weak. She's sort of riding the fence here, not actually accusing afat, but showing a pale support for those who may be joining the wagon soon.Sekinj wrote:Actually - as days go by there is more and more reason to vote afat instead of less, since he is not defending at all....
p25 - I hate this post. Everything here is an echo, but it's formatted to look very vocal and opinionated. This is the 4th vote on Kairyuu, a very comfortable position to be in if the lynch were to go through. Everything about the post says, "Look at what a good little townie I am."
p28 - Ahh, what more can I say. 10:00 am on Monday Texas time, so the "short posts at work" excuse covers this one I guess. Again, the problem I have is she goes from "Mafia Godfather here, vote away," to "he's obviously telling the truth, definite townie," and she never mentions her next suspect anywhere near the unvote. This was long before Kair even claimed mason, so he was far from confirmed.
p31 - I think this is where Sek really starts to eyeball me if she's town, or where she starts to try to raise suspicion about me if she's scum. I hadn't been a hot-topic for her yet up to now, but as I start to post more aboutmysuspicion ofher, you can feel her finger start to itch at wanting to point right back. This is after I've started picking up heat from Kair and Artem, another example of Sekinj being a follower.
p33 - Reaching and maybe a little(dare I say it?)OMGUS.
p34 - Doesn't want to be rushed into placing a new vote, or into saying the names of the people she finds suspicious either apparently. Wants to "continue to discuss and view other players responses to cases." Read, "I need to know who everyone wants to lynch before I put my vote on them."
p35,p36,p37,p38,p39 - Filler posts. No real content.
p40 - My favorite! I feel like my defense shot some sizable holes in this one. We'll see what Sek thinks.
: So, the main theme here and the reason you should vote Sekinj is she has a pattern of chasing easy targets, usually on the coat-tails of other people's arguments. She doesn't put out a lot of original thoughts. I still find her vote/unvote of Kair really suspicious. She's always most opinionated about a topicSummaryafterone or two others have voiced their opinion first. Possible town-ness showing through is defending afat and questioning Kair's cases before anyone else. Picked up on Myko asking for the town not to lynch another person right away. Active, unlike a few people in this game. Self-contradictions are few and minor so far.
Some strong points, some weak points. I have more on Sekinj than any other player in the game so far, so I like my vote staying here right now. BUT, the rules say that when deadline hits, we get a no lynch if we can't agree. I'm open to any cases that can top mine, and with 5 and a half days left I think we all need to consider how much we would compromise. Also, Sekinj I just realized I think I may have been calling you "he" a few times in this game, so I apologize. I tried to go back through this and catch all those and make the switch. Bad habit.-
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The italicized ismykonian wrote:I get the feeling that she does all this also to stay of Sekinj's wagon? Still see mentions she doesn't like Sekinj's posts. From this I guess thatat least one of zade and CF are scum. Let's see day 2 for that. After this, Spring is gone for some posts.ifSpring is scum correct?
Would still like a Sek lynch. Will vote Scigatt. Don't see anything against Zade. Don't see anything for or against Artem. Wolf needs to post. Will reread SL, but I don't remember anything suspicious about him right now. If BOTH the claimed masons will give me their reasons to vote one person, their opinion will carry a lot of weight with me.
SP, Scigatt, and Wolfreallyneed to get a vote down, even if you're unsure of your read right now. Deadline is running up on us, and right now everyone that's voting (except one) would have to be voting the EXACT SAME person for a lynch to go through.-
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@Myko: How did you come to the conclusion that one of Zade and Imustbe scum? We haven't really hadthatmuch interaction with each other, and most of it has lead people to assume we're scumtogether. What lead you to this?
That statement was more for Myko since he was voting with you earlier, but now has split over to SL. I'm sorry, but I still really disagree with you.Kairyuu wrote:@CF Riot: I've been giving my reasons to vote Zade/afatchic since around page 2.Kair wrote:1. Tried to partially separate self from germy once it was apparent that people found his claim request scummy.Seems like a stretch, but okay.
2. Denied this when called out.I don't think this is a scum tell, because it's a necessity after (1) happened.
3. Expressed lack of caring about backup power roles (said they were unimportant).Seems anti-town, but not scum to me.
4. Began to lurk when I pressed further, going so far as to complain about being ganged up on 'every time' he posts.
-Zade replaces in-
5. Goes after sekinj (an easy target).Biased because I also suspect Sek, but I disagree.
6. Continually repeats "I'm town."He's already addressed it himself.Redmine in above.
Since my last post, I reread all of SL's posts and decided his amount of input is a little low for me, but I don't see anything scummy in what's there. I actually like some of what he's said, so I have a bit of a town read. I like Zade's posts, and he thinks a lot like me even on subjects other than Sekinj. SP I'm a little iffy on, but he's pointing out things about Sekinj that are valid now, so I like that. I don't really have a read on Artem, Wolf, or Ku_F.-
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While technically IScheherazade wrote:CF Riot and I aren't the only ones to consider the possibility that you're lying.amconsidering it, I actuallyhighlydoubt the masons are lying. I think I've been one of the ones to question their claim the least. Just to clarify.
I don't know if it's safe to assume a scum necessarily be on the Kair push from 5 votes out of 12, but I understand the thought process. Artem and Sek are definitely not exempt from this scrutiny though.mykonian wrote:
Assuming 3 scum, and assuming scum would be on the wagon (what I'm quite certain of) you and CF remain.iamausername wrote:Votecount #8!
Kairyuu (5) - afatchic, CF Riot, Artem, sekinj, germy
afatchic (2) - Kairyuu, mykonian
sekinj (1) - wolframnhart
Artem (1) - springlullaby
Not Voting (3) - alvinz95, Ku_F, Scigatt
7 to lynch.
If you take the reverse of this and look for scumnoton Kair's wagon, you have a sample size of 7 and both Kairyuu and yourself are in the group, so you can narrow it down to 5, the exact same as those voting Kair. In which group do you think more scum most probably lie?
Myko wrote:CF also hasn't had an optimal play,
Really? Of all the people in the game you think I'm being cautious with my vote? I was 2nd on Kair's wagon, when Afat's was originally a random vote, and I'm the first on Sek's wagon.Myko wrote:is very uncertain (or wants to look what savest place for his vote will be).
Okay, here you say what I just tried to show, and admit Sekinj is more guilty of this than me. I really don't know why you see Sek as so town right now. I really think the masons need to get on the same page. It's bad dividing our votes as a town, but it's worse when wemykonian wrote:9. it is saver for scum to wait with voting. That way they can go with the flow and follow the town. Therefor, scum tend to vote later (certainly a point against Sekinj) on the bigger wagons.knowboth of you are on the same team.
Was there a second of all? Or was the first the all?Scigatt wrote:First of all, I don't see how talking about the setup for a few posts, as opposed to roleclaiming, can hurt the town. The scum will discuss this among themselves anyways at night, and I don't how this could be town move.-
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a) Mos def.
b) I really want Sek. I would be fine with Scigatt.
c) Since Myko has refused Sek, and Kair never really was that hot about it, I'm willing to compromise quite a bit. I don't have anyone I won't vote for other than the claimers. I would rather vote Artem or Wolf than those left.
deviantArt rocks. Myko, I didn't really get my feelings hurt, I was just messing with you. [=
Germy really needs to post.-
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Regarding the no NK situation, I think it's most probable that we have a Doc or RB. This reduces the likelihood that there is a Vig or SK (though not impossible because of mafia or town RB). One thing about this event isifit's a scum-ploy I could see it more likely coming from Germy-scum than Kair/Myko-scum. It would suggest to us the existence of a Doc/RB which in turn strengthens Germy's claim while at the same time explaining his living through the night. I still highly doubt this, and even if this is a scum-ploy I'm happy because I think it's a sub-optimal choice regarding their options from last night.
With that out of the way, getting right back to the business of yesterday I still happily support a Sekinj wagon. SL flipping town doesn't really add to or confirm my suspicion from yesterday, but it definitely fits well with Sek-scum.
Vote: Sekinj
Zade, SP, Wolf: Have any of your suspicions changed from yesterday? Who are you all looking at the most, and did the SL lynch or the (lack of) night actions affect your opinions?
Sek: Who's suspicious today and what did you learn from the SL-lynch?-
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Wolf hasn't posted yet and SP answered in an indirect way. I'd like an answer from Sek and Zade though.CF Riot wrote:Zade,SP, Wolf: Have any of your suspicions changed from yesterday? Who are you all looking at the most, and did the SL lynch or the (lack of) night actions affect your opinions?
Sek: Who's suspicious today and what did you learn from the SL-lynch?-
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Sek, again:
1) I'm not questioning just you, andbecauseyou're my top suspect, I need to know what's going on in your headmorethan anyone else in the game, so it's not a trip-up tactic. Not to mention the fact thatifyou're town you should welcome me trying to trip you up rather than be annoyed by it, because you've got no reason to "slip-up" since you're a truth telling townie with nothing to hide, and you can use my "manipulation" against you as evidence.
2) I've already laid out some "so-and-so's probably scum, so-and-so's probably town" statements, so Iamtaking a position of my own.-
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Hmm, I guess it's tradition or something that everyone be asked a question twice before they answer.
Wolframnhart:Have any of your suspicions changed from yesterday? Who are you all looking at the most, and did the SL lynch or the (lack of) night actions affect your opinions?
Myko: I agree with Scigatt, but I'm confused with SP. What has he done that you consider spreading uncertainty?-
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So would you consider that a scummy move, a suspicious move, or are they one in the same to you? What's your stance on Sekinj? If you are considering Wall-E as a suspect, what's your opinion on the connections between the two? That is to say, do you think their alignments are the same, opposite, or have no correlation and why?wolframnhart wrote:I honestly am looking at Wall-E right now, and not extremely hard, but I find it odd that he votes someone but doesn't/hasn't listed the reasons why. It is not a big thing, but just something i found odd thats all.
Is this really aimed at Zade or someone else? (Typo?) I can't find what you're talking about here in the thread anywhere.sekinj wrote:I also don't like how shez seems to love everything that wall-e is saying, like it's gospel or something.
Zade:I hope you're town because I think you and I think a LOT alike, which makes it sort of hard to read you. One thing I would like from you though is for you to make a few assertions today. You've mostly been defending/arguing with Kairyuu and you said you still suspect Sek but I don't see you voting him or FoSing any other players. From just before you voted SL yesterday, has your suspicion of Sek gone up, down, or remained roughly the same?
All:Who thinks a Scigatt wagon would be in order about now? Yay or Nay? I vote Yay.-
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Wall-E:So now that you're unvoting, do we get to hear the reason why you voted in the first place?
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Germy:
Why do you think that givengermy wrote:If a townie says they are not going to reveal their reasoning right away, it's better not to push them.
? Wouldn't following up on questions toward other players and forcing them out of a neutral position be a good way to root out scum? I would think if I ask a certain player about someone they are ignoring, if they refuse to talk about that player or say whether they think they're scum or not it would be a good indication of scumminess.germy wrote:If they're mafia, they won't say anything, anyway.
On the role fishing, I can see how it might look that way but that was not my intention. And to be clear, I didn't ask what they thought happened, just if it had any relation to who they were voting today. For example, I would be more inclined to vote you today than yesterday, because I would think you would be a likely target last night, yet you didn't die. I don't think the questions I'm asking are "silly" though.
Can you tell me why my "fishing" is more suspicious than SP's in post 466 or post 481? Is there a reason why you didn't mention this closer to page 19 when I asked?
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Zade:On Scigatt, there's really not any strong evidence that he is likely scum. He does have a tendency to vote along with popular wagons. The reason I call for the wagon is he hasn't been posting much, and most of his posts lack real content, or rehash old arguments that have pretty much been settled pages before. I think this in itself could be deliberate(scummy) or unintentional(innocent), but deserving of a closer look either way. I think right now, awagonis appropriate. His response to that wagon would determine whether or not an actuallynchis appropriate.
Also,
I lol'd. I know it's a typo but still.Scheherazade wrote:I'm actively trying to hurt anybody's feelings.
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Wolf:It's my only way to gauge scumminess. I don't know how to explain it any more than this is how I play. I have one strong suspect (Sek) and three likely townies (claimers) but no clear reads beyond that, so I'm sort of asking questions every which way to form more opinions.-
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I didn't do the second. No one I've asked questions to so far have said they have reasons that can't/won't be revealed.germy wrote:Pressuring scum that simply provides no reason can be enlightening, based on their reaction. But a player that claims to have a reason, but won't reveal, whether townie or scum, will have the exact same reaction: "I'll provide it later," or "I have my reasons."
It was only 1 string of questions, it just had to be repeated twice because people seemed to miss/ignore the original post. They never said, "I have an answer, but I'm holding it," none of them made any comment at all, which made me think they just didn't see it.germy wrote:I didn't "mention it earlier" because I'm forgiving of one or two instances. It's the repetition of what I see as fishing that looks scummy.
Also, I asked 3 people, and SP asked 3 people. That's not post percentage, but you get the point.
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The Sekinj wagon feels suddenly lonely. Zade, Shanba, or Scigatt should come keep me company.-
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For Shanba (and Myko I guess): Lets all vote Sekinj! You can add to that: staying true to the form of waiting for other's support before committing to an opinion and continuing to attack his attackers.
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Wall-E, I'm not in a hurry. I think Sek is scum. There were 2 votes that agreed with me, and now they're gone. This makes the Hulk have a sad face.-
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Why are all the most pro-town players the ones asking for a no-claim lynch? I want to say, "Aha! That's soooo anti-town, you're scum," but it's coming from one of our masons and the claimed back-up. If nothing else, wait for a replacement, ask for a claim, then proceed from there. If all we get from them is a vanilla claim, that's still better than none at all.
SP: Who do you find most suspicious after Scigatt? Have your suspicions of Sekinj faded?
Sekinj: I'm going from previous posts in assuming that Zade, Wall-E, and Scigatt are your top suspects (and I think I'm in there somewhere too.) Can you put them in order of which you think are most likely scum?
Wolf: Are you pro-scigatt lynch or anti-scigatt lynch or neutral? Any new suspects yet?-
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I know we don't want to hurt anyone's feelings, but I just feel like we need a claim at least. Some real content and input would be nice, and yes it may or may not convince us to change our minds, but say we got a replacement and they claim some kind of role. Wouldn't that be worth waiting for? Say we don't get a replacement any time soon, wouldn't it be worth it to lynch someone else today and go back towards a Scigatt lynch D3? I can see that being a problem closer to endgame, but for us it's D2 and there were no NK's. I think we can afford to wait for a replacement.
Mod:I don't know how you recruit replacements exactly, but if it helps, you can promise them that I will instantly replace into any game they ask if they replace into ours and die the same day.-
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? Really? The reason is enough people have said they are willing to vote/lynch Scigatt for it to actually happen, and 3 people (yourself included) have said they're willing to lynch himbeforewe get a replacement. I just see that as a crappy play, considering we're not in any dangerous situation where we need to lynch him right away, and at the very least if we wait for a replacement we can get a claim before lynching Scig, which may benefit town.
Your thought process doesn't make sense either, because if I were scum trying to get Scig to claim, it would probably easier to just advocate lynching him before a replacement and not have to worry about the claim.-
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Myko: Yes, I totally understand what you're saying. Let me make this clear, I'm not asking to hold off voting Scig until D3necessarily. I want to wait until we have someone in that role who couldat the very leastgive us a claim to contemplate before a lynch. If we get a replacement today, by all means we could lynch that person today butafter they've claimed, so if we've made a mistake it will become glaringly obvious. With your scenario of scummy lynch vs. uncertain lynch, look at it this way. Scummy person w/ no claim D2 then uncertain person w/ claim D3, or uncertain person w/ claim D2 then scummy person w/ claim D3. Which is more optimal then? You lose a bit of argument time by lynching the uncertain person first, but you gain a claim from the scummy person if you wait. I think claim > 1 game-day of arguing.
Also, I don't think there is much incentive for me (as scum) to set-up a mislynch for D3 by arguingagainstthat same mislynch D2. I still think as scum I would benefit more from lynching Scig before his replacement had a chance to defend himself, which is the very reason I'm arguing against letting that happen.
Why dogermy wrote:The reasons why I don't have a problem lynching Scigatt before being replaced -- I think Scigatt is scum, and as such I have no real intention of believing any claim he may have to make.
you, the claimedback-up role, have any reason to not hear a claim? You should be anticipating it the most, because if it's a fake claim that doesn't match your own role, you should be there to shoot it down. If it does match your role, you can confirm it, and if it's a fake then we should get a counter-claim from someone which will damn Scig and confirm you all at once. I'm starting to question Germy's claim more and more as the game goes on. It made sense to me when we didn't have a NK, so I trusted it pretty strongly. That's falling apart now.
By your last statement I'm going to assume (for now) that you are in the neutral zone. What about other suspects?CF Riot wrote:Wolf: Are you pro-scigatt lynch or anti-scigatt lynch or neutral? Any new suspects yet?-
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You aren't considering the possibility that he actuallySilverPhoenix wrote:If he was scum, the only possible role that he could safely claim is vanilla,isa town PR. I think I already said in a previous post that if a replacement just comes in and claims vanilla then we wouldn't gain anything, so I'm not arguing that point. I'm accounting for the possibility that we're about to hang a doc/RB/whatever who can't even pipe up to defend himself.
I understand the thought process but this is still wrong. The one game I've actually finished on this site had the Cop and a PGE replace out, both by request.SilverPhoenix wrote:Town power roles generally have vested interests in their game as they give the town a much better chance of winning.
By the testimony given so far in this game, it leads most to assume that there is still at least 1 town PR that hasn't revealed himself yet. For this reason alone, I would think it stupid to lynchanyonewithout a chance to claim.-
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Again, you're not considering that Scig might really be a power role. We've all pretty much agreed that if you're telling the truth, the set-up is something like M M X X _ _ _ right? What happens if we have MMM XX _ _ and Scig is the child? All I'm saying is you don't know with certainty that Scig has to be either scum or vanilla, so I think it's totally worth it to find out before we rush into lynching him.-
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Meant to post this last night, but things came up.
@Germy: Okay. At this point, I think I'm done. I see your side of it, and I think you (and everyone else) can see mine. I think I kind of lost sight of what I was going for. I was explaining my reasons so you could see they weren't scum-driven, but I went off on a tangent of trying to prove my idea was the best.I think weI see now it just happened. You're welcome Mod. ;]aregetting a replacement for this game now though.
And I gotta say, I don't knowhowyou have Sek as town right now. Unlisted, maybe neutral at best, but town? I just don't believe it.
Wolf: I don't know what to tell you. That's my method, I promise it has a purpose. On the Sek thing, I'm still upset she's not getting lynched. I don't know why that's scummy really. I'd like anyone and everyone to come vote her with me. On Scigatt/Nati, I dunno. I got antzy when I saw all these people coming out saying we should lynch before a replacement, which I just thought was scummy as all get out. That's going to be resolved soon though.
Sekinj:CF Riot wrote:Sekinj: I'm going from previous posts in assuming that Zade, Wall-E, and Scigatt are your top suspects (and I think I'm in there somewhere too.) Can you put them in order of which you think are most likely scum?-
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Aside from all the reasons Sekinj listed for suspecting me being crap, that post (660 or 670 something) read townish to me for some reason. Maybe it's just the fact that there are better lynches finally.
On the whole claiming business,.no one hammer yet plz
This is how I see it. There is asmallchance that we have 2 RBs. If we lynch Zade:- Scum-flip confirms Nati as town, casts a small bit of doubt on SP, raises the chance that Sanba is town.
Town-flip casts doubt on Nati, SP stays the same, raises the chance that Sanba is scum.
- Scum-flip confirms SP as town, casts doubt on Nati, raises chance that Zade is town.
Town-flip casts doubt on SP, Nati stays the same, raises chance that Zade is scum.
And boy oh boy can I say "I told you so" to everyone who jumped me for wanting a claim?!?-
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Okay, now that I had a night to sleep on it, I'm pretty sure Nati is by far the best lynch. I agree with pretty much everything that's been said (what a great blanket statement huh?) about how the presence of a doc negating most ties that come from the RB's flip. We can worry about that tomorrow though. Let's lynch scum.
Vote:NatirashaL-1-
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I think one of Wall-E and Wolf are scum. I think Shanba(formerlyArtem) is more likely scum than Zade. I think a Zade/Sekinj pair is not impossible, but my Sekinj suspicion is fading. (I just really, really want to be right about my initial read of him.) I think only one of Wall-E and Shanba are scum, if either (that is to say, I don't think they are scum together).
I'm going to throw my trust in the Masons at this point and say Zade is my main suspect. I'm going to wait to vote because mine would be L-2 which is in quicklynch territory (even though that would be stupid at this point in the game).
I think it's more likely that we have an IC than a vig, because there was only 1 kill last night (and none N1). I think if we have an IC, he shouldn't claim/confirm until he's at L-1 or 2, because his role is immediately confirmable. As for the mass claim, it would be okay but not necessary I don't think.-
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I thought about it a lot last night and now I'm pro-massclaim. Regarding this quote, if a mass-claim lends us 4 vanillas consisting of 2 real vanillas and 2 scum, and we can have 2 mislynches w/o losing the game, then laying out the vanillas like this will ensure definite win, because even if you lynch wrong 2 times in a row the next 2 lynches should hit scum because that's all that is left.Scheherazade wrote:As we're at two mislynches to ly-lo.-
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I don't understand how that's "brilliant" but okay. Also, it's possible/likely town could hand off to scum not knowing that they did, so scum don't necessarily go last. I'm not especially worried about the order because I don't really know what you gain/lose by doing it different ways.
Everyone place your bets now and we'll see who guessed right at the end. I'm putting one lot on Zade/Wolf, and a smaller lot on Shanba/Sekinj.-
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Hahaha. I know I did it first, but Kair we are kind of defeating the purpose of the whole "popcorn" thing ya know? That said, I don't think the order matters much in this set-up, where so many roles are already revealed and the set-up is partially open to begin with.
Personally, I'd advocate anyone who hasn't claimed claiming as soon as they read the thread, regardless of who else has said anything. (Don't listen to me though.)-
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Assuming no blocks/doc protects/vig or SK kills/whatev we can have 2. Lynching the VT's indiscriminately one by one could possibly lead to town loss, as right now there are 5 VT's and only 2 scum max.
And yes, someone is definitely lying. I don't really get Wall-E's point in the previous post. That's okay though, I think I know what's going on.-
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