Mini #682: C9++ (Game Over!)

[germy]

Allow me to introduce myself.

Germy, here, with one mafiascum newbie game under my belt, although I've played extensively on other sites. I'm very talkative, sometimes irrationally argumentative, nitpicky, and known for crazy gambits as both town and mafia.

And I have an absolute blast.


I have never played a mafia game with this type of semi-open setup before, and it's my first time seeing living in the town of "C9++" so to speak. It's interesting to see that we can derive some probablities based on our own roles.

With that said, I would like to get the ball rolling.

• I am Town.
  
• I am not a vanilla townie.
  
• I am not a miller.
  
• I am in a position in which I can reveal a portion of the game structure to the Town without revealing too much about my role itself.

I will not reveal my role, but it does guarantee the existence of another, similar role. We have one of the following situations:

DD, DDDD, VV, VVVV, MM, MMM, MMMM, MMMMM, BB, or BBBB

. To clarify further, I am one of the following roles: nurse, one-shot vig, mason, or backup blocker. I am not at this time claiming which.

Which means I know the following information about the game setup that I would like to share with the Town:

• We have a three-person mafia.
  
• If we have a serial killer, then they have
  at least
  the DI, BI, and KI abilities.
  
• I believe it's
  likely
  , though I'm not sure, that we have a mafia blocker.

The mafia already knows their own makeup, so I'm hoping that this insight will help the Town.

I've narrowed down some of the possible role distributions for everyone, but I hope not in a way that benefits the mafia all that much, and benefits the Town more.


My

suggestions

for play throughout the game:

• Any claimed cop should list in the same post each of their investigations and their results, for every previous Night. We will need as much of this information as possible, invaluable especially in the end-game.
  
• I believe all millers should claim millerhood right away. Although the variable number of millers makes this less useful, I think it is still important to know this as soon as possible in the game. More than three miller-claims and we already have a lying mafia member, more than two miller claims guarantees we have no insane cops.
  
• I believe if any other "secondary roles" like mine exist (ie, backup doc, one-shot vig, backup blocker), they should also claim as I have. If we have masons, only one from such a group should claim as I have. Remember, I'm not advocating in any way a role-claim, just whether your role guarantees the existence of other roles in the game. This narrows down the mafia makeup even further without hurting the Town. (For instance, if one other player claims as I have, then we are guaranteed at least four indeterminate "power roles" in the game. Implying we have
  at most
  three vanilla townies, and guaranteeing a mafia blocker.)
  
• I believe vanilla townies should not claim their "vanilla-ness" for as long as possible: knowledge of vanilla townies is extremely valuable to the mafia for narrowing down the true power roles.

Let's have some fun.

[germy]

Oh, and obviously, I'm not a fan of the ridiculous random-vote phase. Might as well get some real discussion started on page 1, rather than page 5.

[germy]

According to you, there are approximately 4 full power roles and 3 vanillas.

False. All I know is that there are two "power roles," one of which is me, and there could be as many as

five

seven

(see below)

vanilla townies.

Plus, if someone else claims as I have, we will only know of two "full power" roles and two "dependent power" roles (backup, one-shot, or mason), and a maximum of

three

five

vanilla townies.

If everyone does as you say, then instead of looking at the game and having 12 (minus lynch and scum members) people to choose from, the scum have a 4/7 chance of hitting a town power role during the Night.

Yes, I know I've made the chances better for the mafia. But only very slightly, and my belief is that Town knowledge, in this case, outweighs the slight advantage the mafia gains.

If I am the only "dependent role," and had never claimed as such, and assuming a vanilla townie lynch (hopefully not, hopefully scum), the mafia would have had a minimum of 1/8 (12.5%) chance of hitting a "full-power role." With my revelation, there will be a 1/7 (14.3%) chance going into Night 1.

If there is a second "dependent role," and they do not claim, the chances have jumped from 2/8 (25%) to 2/7 (28.6%). If a second "dependent role" does claim, it will jump to 2/6 (33.3%).

So, again, yes, I've made the chances better for the mafia of hitting a full-power role, and have even given the mafia a 100% of hitting a power role of some kind over a vanilla townie (me). But I believe a Townie knowledge of game setup outweighs the marginal increase. 33% is not that much better of a chance over 25%, let alone 14.3% versus 12.5%.

The point is the mafia

already

know their own makeup, therefore they can

already

roughly determine the number of power roles in the game. For example, if the mafia is composed of a goon, a blocker, and a godfather, they already

know

we are in a TTT or TT situation. Which means they already

know

the town has four power roles (XXXXTTT) or five power roles (XXXXXTT).

Yes, the mafia now have marginally better chances of hitting full-power roles (doc, vig, etc.), but it's not that much better than what they already know. My revelation gives the Town access to this information, as well, which I think is very important, very useful, and outweighs the slight percentage difference. If we can discover there is a mafia blocker or mafia spy, it gives the Town more information to make decisions and analyze Night actions, not to mention narrowing down possible SK abilities and establishing a maximum ceiling for the number of vanilla townies.

• Also, I think I made a mistake in my thoughts on vanilla townie distribution. I had thought that each T represented a vanilla townie, when actually all those remaining after choosing power roles and mafia are vanilla townie.
  
  If so, then my current knowledge of the game setup is 2 "power roles" (including myself), 3 mafia, and a maximum of
  7
  vanilla townies. If someone else reveals a similar role, then the game setup is 4 "power roles," 3 mafia (1 guaranteed blocker), and a maximum of 5 vanilla townies.

So, there you go, Kairyuu, I've explained myself. Yes, I did know, and I still think it's worth it.

[germy]

Why does TTT or TT guarantees five power roles? What if the setup is MMMMTTT - which gives us three masons?

Quite right, my bad. I'm still finding small mistakes like that in my argument. So no, that situation does not guarantee a certain number of power roles.

If so, then my current knowledge of the game setup is 2 "power roles" (including myself), 3 mafia, and a maximum of 7 vanilla townies. If someone else reveals a similar role, then the game setup is 4 "power roles," 3 mafia (1 guaranteed blocker), and a maximum of 5 vanilla townies.

Correct me if I'm wrong but we also have a minimum of 5 vanillas, since only 7 letters are drawn.

Actually, I think the

minimum

might be 1 vanilla. If every other letter drawn results in one power role, then we have 7 power roles, 3 mafia, 1 SK and 1 vanilla townie. For example: CDDVVMM = 0 T: 3 mafia + 1 SK

I'm not entirely sure if I believe germy's claim because it seems all too easy for him to be scum and make a WIFOM argument of "The scum is obviously trying to find full power roles, so they are not interested in night-killing me" to explain his survival of each night.

I don´t want germy to react on the following, but from what I guess, it isn´t the smartest move to NK germy. Also not to lynch him.

That's not really a WIFOM argument, but is actually a plausible explanation. WIFOM is used to justify one's

own

actions, not what actions happen

to them

. I'm a more interesting target, but I think I am just as likely to be killed as not.

If I am killed, I would not be surprised. The mafia might want to kill me as a "confirmed" townie, or for being a power role (despite not being a "full-power" role).

If I survive, I would also not be surprised. The mafia could easily be searching for the "full-power" roles instead, since their chances have actually increased to find one. And as a "dependent role" it's possible that I am either a backup (who is no different than a vanilla townie, at this point) or a one-shot vig (who is no different from a vanilla townie every Night except one): neither case give the mafia much of an incentive to kill me over anyone else.

---

I don't expect anyone to believe me right off the bat: that's fine. Everything that I've revealed will be revealed upon my Night death or lynch, anyway. Because I had more information about the game makeup than other townies, and that information was of marginal use to the mafia, I thought it more important to share that information with the rest of the Town. Those that believe me are at an advantage - those that don't are no worse off than they would otherwise be on Day 1.

[germy]

sekinj you're not gonna really ignore me are you? I really didn't like what you said about scumhunting you know.

why not? do you prefer random voting to scumhunting? I'm not sure what your point is...

I'm working on a more extensive post, but I want to head off this argument.

• Sekinj - Springlullaby is commenting on the fact that you claimed to prefer scumhunting to random voting, yet at that point your posts had no content that "hunted for scum." Springlullaby is not saying random voting is better, just that you had been doing neither.
  
• Springlullaby - Sekinj was simply claiming that scumhunting, in general, was better than random voting. She was making a general statement.

At least, that's my interpretation of this spat.

[germy]

I love this, Page 3 with

tons

of discussion already, without watching

"as people childishly overreact to the random voting,"

forcing a townie lynche as often as not.

F

IRST,

It seems you would have thought about this a lot to come up with all of your information about the setup that you originally posted, so you should be able to tell us

at least

one of these ways that it puts “those that believe you at an advantage.” (Use a theoretical situation if necessary)

Let's say that another "dependent role" exists, and that player believes me. (I am not saying "backup role" because the dependent roles include the backups as well as a one-shot vig and masons). That second dependent role, without even claiming to the rest of the Town, now knows that we have

at least

a YYZZTTT situation. That player now knows that the mafia has a roleblocker, and that if there is a serial killer they will also have the CI ability. That player has a distinct information advantage as a result of my claim, and can then make better lynch decisions and Night actions accordingly.

S

ECOND,

My goal regarding my first post claim is twofold. One, give the Town access to the information discrepancy. I recognize that on Day 1, especially, this is "unhelpful" in that no one knows if I am telling the truth or if I am scum.

However

, one of the best strategies for the Town, in my opinion, is to analyze posts of previous Days.

My second goal does not manifest until the endgame, when a certain number of vanilla townies, mafia roles and town roles have been revealed and we can go all the way back to Day 1 to analyze posts. By endgame, with Night kill information and role reveals, we can likely determine the exact makeup of the mafia, and what has been said Today in response to my reveal will be invaluable.

Without my reveal, most of Day 1 is useless. It consists of random voting and overreactions that gain us relatively little information. By claiming as I have, not only on Day 1 but so

early

in Day 1, both Today and when we search back through everyone's posts in endgame, the Town will have more information to work with.

This is my point:

Not only have I hoped to give the Town extra information from the outset, but I also want the Town to have an extensive post record for everyone come endgame. By announcing my status as a "dependent role," (as opposed to power role or vanilla), I have limited the damage to the Town, and limited the advantage the mafia might otherwise gain.

T

HIRD,

Now that everyone has posted, I have scum theories!

I recognize that agreement or disagreement with my conclusions or claim is not a direct indication of scumminess. I am attempting to base my thoughts on

how

people have reacted, so far, as opposed to

what

the reaction is.

Here is my initial take:

mykonian is mafia

• I don't like the way he is wavering on how to interpret my posts and claim. He is defending me while pointing out the flaws and dangers of my argument. The "chumminess" reeks of being artificial.

Edify is mafia

• This is based on mykonian being mafia. Edify had a token vote on me for disagreeing, and i think mykonian was trying to find an in-game reason to place a meaningless vote on a scumbuddy. Given I think mykonian is mafia, his fellow mafia will try to place votes on me, and I have other reasons why I think Kairyuu and Nightwolf are more likely to be Town.

springlullaby is mafia

• The attack on sekinj seems excessive, plus I don't like a "random vote" in her first post when she had already begun discussing my claim.

So,

Vote: mykonian

My thoughts on who is likely Town:

Artem, CF Riot, Kairyuu, Nightwolf, sekinj

[germy]

I am hesitant to believe that mykonian is scum simply because he hasn’t taken a decisive stance on your claim yet. There are three votes on you already, and him tossing his own on would make it four, so it is completely understandable for him to be hesitant to take you to one vote away from the threat range of L-2 to L-1. I think you are simply overreacting to what is likely a townie trying to avoid a mislynch.

Let me clarify that I am not saying anything with surety. mykonian simply seems to me the most suspicious at this time, for my listed reasons. He seemed wishy-washy and chummy even before Edify's vote. I don't think he ever planned to put a vote on me.

I don’t like Edify’s vote any more than you do, but I don’t like your reasoning. Edify did not come up with any reason for his vote, claiming it to be random. By that point there was plenty of information to make a decent case floating around, but he ignored it and told you to chill out. Sounds to me like he’s a member of the scumtype I mentioned earlier in this post, trying to reinstate the usual chaos so that he can be written off as harmless.

I agree. mykonian's actions, in my mind, simply seemed to corroborate this.

Also, you base Edify being scum on mykonian being scum, when mykonian never had a vote on either you or edify before Edify voted you. His was on Nightwolf originally, and moved to Edify because he was the only one voting you who had no case, unique or otherwise.

Yes, I know. One of my assumptions is that the mafia will not all vote for the same person, and that one mafia member usually pretends to defend a townie while another mafia member will vote for them. This is the situation I am predicting, here.

I think that you have the Springlullaby thing reversed as well. She has been attacking someone who she seems to think is scum based on the fact that he is not scumhunting. This is scumhunting itself. I would look much more closely at sekinj for failing to post any content, effectively active lurking.

I easily could, admittedly. If sekinj doesn't start contributing more, soon, then I can see reversing my vote. I can also see, though, two scum making shots at one another over a trivial point in an attempt to distance one another. We'll see what happens over the next few real-time days, as well as game Days.

As for your likely town section:

<snip>

There is no reason to provide support for why I think particular players are Town. Scumhunting is good - towniehunting is bad.

Hypothetical example: I think mykonian is the Cop while sekinj and springlullaby are masons . I should not say in the thread,

"I think mykonian is Town because he's made these cop tells,"

or

"I think sekinj and springlullaby are Town because they act like masons."

Unless it's endgame where such information is useful for narrowing down scum, I will not explain my reasons for whom I think is Town.

I think afatchic is scum because he instantly latched onto you without question, and then when further points began to be raised against you, he continued to say he supported you, but started trying to pull away, advocating only the miller claims rather than supporting you completely as he began. I think this could be scum latching onto a townie and then trying to back off when that townie was put under fire.

A good point, and one I'll consider. But I don't think afatchic has really posted enough to really conclude what you have.

[germy]

Nightwolf -

I cannot say how, in a specific sense, how my information helps. No, it does not particularly help when a given power role makes a Night decision.

However, it

might

help in following Days when determining what happened during the Night.

I believe information is helpful to the Town, that's all. I saw my claim, of all possible claims, to give the Town maximum information with minimized damage.

[germy]

As for your reason for not backing up your assumed town section, you are misinterpreting what I'm asking for. I did not ask you to list all of the tells that we left, but rather support your opinions. Stating that "I like his playstyle, it's very logical" does not tell the scum any more than "I think he is town, and I have a reason for that." In fact, it tells them less, because by saying you have a reason you won't state, you are implying that you think they are a power role. Saying that they are logical just says that you like their opinions. I will never ask anyone who they think is a power role. Reading Newbie 588 (Hi Artem) shows why this is an extremely bad idea, because that is what made the mafia win in that game. I will repeat my question: Why do you think those of us you mentioned as town are town, in a general or playstyle related way?

Yes, because "playstyle" is always indicative of affiliation.

Let's say it's some possible combination of "townie tells," a lack of "scum tells," and my personal opinion of appropriate reactions.

In your case, specifically, Kairyuu (as well as Nightwolf), I like how both of your arguments focus on me being either a role-fishing scum or bad-playing townie: not voting for me because I gave the mafia better chances, or for being "anti-town." Our disagreement has tended toward how much I am really helping the Town, how much I'm really mafia, and whether it's actually worth it. The logic is good, but more importantly it seems primarily concerned with protecting the Town, which I like.

---

I would also like to posit another theory. I don't believe we have an SK.

My first post would have been an excellent tactic as a scum-SK. The SK already knows the mafia makeup by virtue of which abilities they have, as well as the number of "T's." An SK would know the town has a certain number of even power roles, and it would be useful for the SK to know if any of them were "dependent roles."

If we had an SK, I would have expected one of two things to happen: 1) to vigorously defend me and continue to agree with the claim, or 2) attack me as a likely SK for suggesting the claims in the first place. Since neither has occurred, I am guessing we have no SK.

[germy]

Wow, I hadn't realized I needed to be prodded.

Some thoughts:

I believe the whole afatchic thing has been blown out of proportion, as had the sekinj thing, as is the argument between Kairyuu and Artem. Some almost seem to

have

to be fueled by mafia. I'm still trying to figure out how, and which.

A do not suspect afatchic of being scum, and find alvinz95 to be far more likely. I desperately want to see these two post more, because we have so little to go on. Townie lurkers are very easy for mafia to latch onto, with little to no repercussions for voting for a townie lynch.

I am also getting the same scummy vibes from mykonian. I'm compiling some of my thoughts, and will see what I can post later today.

[germy]

Okay, wow. Many of my interpretations have evolved over the past few days.

First, Artem versus Kairyuu:

• Artem reminds me a little bit of me. Accidentally using flawed logic in hopes of finding scum, and trying to defend himself and explain his thought process when attacked for it. I see nothing scumlike about his posts. Kairyuu, on the other hand, has been latching onto the so-called misinterpretations and arguing far more over semantics. Not necessarily scumlike, either, and this could easily be his aggressive townie playstyle. However, I dislike how he has built up such a large argument over afatchic. I don't see it as nearly suspicious as he does. I don't think Kaiyruu is necessarily mafia, at this point, but he has dropped off my townie list.

Second, sekinj and springlullaby:

• I'm glad that has died down, at least. It may have been even productive. I'm tending to agree with sekinj's interpretations of other players (ChuckNorris, afatchic, Kairyuu) and less with springlullaby.

Third, "the little

a's

," afatchic and alvinz95:

• Please post something more worthwhile! Aftatchic has said little except why he thinks I'm Town. Alvinz95 has said little except why he thinks I'm scum. There has been plenty to discuss, so please talk about.

My case against mykonian:

• Mykonian has been treading a very fine line this whole Day, being very agreeable with everyone, not rocking the boat, and covering his bases. He defended me, yet made sure to point out the reasons why I could be scum. He defended sekinj without disagreeing with springlullaby. He's been slowly becoming more convinced of the case against afatchic as more people join in.
  
  So far, the only person mykonian has actively pursued based on his own reasoning was Edify. He has only joined in on the afatchic lynch after "a case" was built against afatchic.
  
  In my opinion, mykonian has been far too... conciliatory. He is defending everyone, while at the same time admitting that everyone has acted suspiciously. Nothing in his posts hints at taking a stand.

As more posts have accumulated, I'm also leaning toward CF_Riot as possible mafia. Except for his vote on Kairyuu, which he admits it's just to take a stand, he hasn't actively pursued anyone. In his list of suspicions, he gives only weak explanations and covers his bases by not actually accusing them.

Although I definitely want afatchic to post a response, I do not think he is the better lynch candidate. I am far more suspicious of mykonian's behavior.

[germy]

@germy: You say that you don't find afatchic scummy, but do find alvinz scummy. You also say that you think it is too easy for scum to latch onto a lurking townie. Are you calling yourself scum? Because you seem to be trying to latch onto a lurker.

My turn, eh?

Quotes of myself:

I do not suspect afatchic of being scum, and find alvinz95 to be far more likely. I desperately want to see these two post more, because we have so little to go on.

Please post something more worthwhile! Aftatchic has said little except why he thinks I'm Town. Alvinz95 has said little except why he thinks I'm scum. There has been plenty to discuss, so please talk about.

First, of the two (afatchic and alvinz95), I do find alvinz95 to be more scummy. Afatchic has at least weighed in on a few other players, albeit not much, whereas alvinz95 has commented

only

on my original claim. Looking at straight content, and not postcount, alvinz95 has less going for him. Of all players, and I definitely find others "more scummy" than alvinz95.

Second, I have not voted for alvinz95, I have not agreed that he is scum, and I have not argued for him being scum. I have called out for him to post more. I hardly believe,

and I very much doubt that you do

, that I have "latched onto a lurker."

[germy]

and germy, don't change my words: I strongly disagreed with springlullaby's play against sekinj, I posted that, I think? You are searching for reasons to vote me.

I don't think I am. You defended sekinj, and said to springlullaby that you understood the point of view that scumhunting is better than random voting. But you didn't disagree with springlullaby's vote and didn't take it any further.

[germy]

If he flips town, then I will hope that someone can confirm my alignment, but if they can't then I will not fight against being the D2 lynch, because I was the one who proposed the case in the first place.

If you are Town, you should always fight your lynch, no matter how much "sense" you know it might make to the rest of the Town that you look like scum.

Barring really odd mechanics or strange setups, townies should never just "allow" themselves to be lynched.

Not to mention the "godfather-ness" of the post Artem pointed out, as well as springlullaby's points regarding a cop's choices.

Accepting your "punishment" for lynching a townie is

not

pro-town play.

Unvote: mykonian

Vote: Kairyuu

[germy]

1. I think indeed afatchic is scum. If so, it would kinda clear Kairyuu.

2. if afat isn´t scum, Kairyuu promises us a story. I want to hear that story. Good story, we let him live, bad story, we lynch him. But I repeat, don´t investigate him as cop, because if Kairyuu is scum, it probably doesn´t matter.

3. Look at Kairyuu´s play. I don´t know how he usually play´s, yet the whole thing screams town to me. If I were scum, day one wouldn´t be the day to make a lot of noise, to attract attention, and if I´m a godfather, I wouldn´t ask for a investigation day 1. It doesn´t fit. Same counts for Artem.

I want to look at Kairyuu again day 2, because then we have all the information necessary to decide on his lynch. The lynch, maybe the nightkill clears something, and Kairyuu´s story. It could stop us from lynching a power role.

1. I think you and Kairyuu are scum. If Kairyuu is scum, it would kinda clear afatchic, as well as implicate you for defending and agreeing with him.

2. I'm not going to say one way or another whether a cop should investigate Kairyuu, especially since I'm voting for his lynch. However, the problem is that Kairyuu practically

asked

to be investigated, and is now a large reason why I find him suspicious.

3. So I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me?

I believe Kairyuu is likely to be scum, at this point, and mykonian is his scum-buddy.

[germy]

If he

[afatchic]

flips town, then I will hope that someone can confirm my alignment, but if they can't then I will not fight against being the D2 lynch, because I was the one who proposed the case in the first place.

Okay, Kairyuu, lets walk through this.

First, I'll accept that you did not necessarily mean "investigate" when you used the word "confirmed." You even flatly denied it in response to springlullaby. Okay.

Second, you also further claimed that you are so "confident you are correct, or can be confirmed" that you believe you would not be considered a Day 2 lynch target.

Then why say you wouldn't fight it?

It's scummy to ingratiate yourself with the Town by pretending to agree with the majority, doubly so after you admit you don't expect the situation to occur and that you were only

placating us.

But,

*deep breath,*

let's say I accept this, too. Okay.

Third, you repeated in response to sekinj, that you are "a townie confident in his ability to get confirmed, and also confident that the person he is voting is scum." Confident you can be confirmed

and

that you are voting scum? Hm. I fully admit that afatchic is lurking, and it's been annoying the hell out of me. But how do you expect to be

that sure?

But, then again, fine. You're sure, so be it. Okay.

Given all of this,

what possible scenario exists that makes you so confident that you can be confirmed? Nearly every possibility, in the end, seems more likely to be a scum gambit than a true townie getting confirmed.

• A cop planning to reveal your investigation already, whatever the results? Or scum "revealing" a known townie?
  
• A doc hoping to protect the night kill target, and revealing you did so? Or scum simply not targeting a particular player?
  
• A backup doc, backup blocker, or one-shot vig claiming as such, hoping to draw out the true power role to confirm you? Or scum simply attempting to draw out the power roles?
  
• A blocker planning on blocking a townie, and claiming you were the one to do so on Day 2, while the townie confirms they were blocked. Or... a mafia blocker trying to curry the Town's favor?

The

only

possibilities I see working in your favor are either: innocent child or mason. However, in both of those cases your confirmation is

guaranteed.

Not "I hope to get confirmed," and neither leaves room for "in case I don't."

So, unless there's a possibility I have not discovered, I don't see any way that you can be "confirmed" if afatchic "flips town" that implies both your level of confidence as well as the admitted possibility of failure.

Oh, and there's also this:

And if I am town? Does that implicate afatchic? Does it clear mykonian?

The contrapositive is not necessarily true.

If Kairyuu scum => mykonian scum and afatchic town
If Kairyuu town !=> mykonian town
If Kairyuu town !=> afatchic scum

If you are Town, then my opinions revert to what they were before, with mykonian at the top of my list (in this case, trying to protect a townie to gain credence with the Town), afatchic could go either way, and everyone else on your lynch becomes suspicious. Only those on your lynch are implicated by your "townieness," not your own perceptions of other players.

[germy]

I'm really hoping that you are having as much fun as I am, because this game is one of the most enjoyable I have played.

Actually, I am. Quite.

I'd like to

think,

and I

hope,

that I had a little something to do with having such a fun game, so far.

[germy]

I can be confirmed with certainty, and will if I get to L-1 or there is a call for it.

Only

saying

you can be confirmed with certainty only confirms your power role for scum. I, and the Town, cannot trust your statement until you actually do.

You shouldn't just go halfway. If you're Town it only helps scum. If you're scum, I want to find out if you're lying. So I'm calling for it.

[germy]

I, and the Town

weren´t you and the town in the same group?

"I," specifically, as well as "the Town," generally.

[germy]

Well,

goddamnit

, I was afraid that would be the case.

Either my scumdar is

really good

or

really bad.

Unvote: Kairyuu

for the moment.

• Sidenote: Now we

  know

  we have a mafia roleblocker (if we believe mykonian and Kairyuu, and myself). We at least have
  MMAAXXX
  (where A is my claimed dependent role, and X are the unknowns). So, a maximum of three T's, which means a guaranteed mafia blocker, and if we have a serial killer they can survive one kill attempt every Night.

I suspect a scum gambit. However, I

always

suspect a scum gambit. Neither Kairyuu nor mykonian were under particular pressure when Kairyuu alluded to his confirmability, so this mason claim wouldn't be a last ditch effort. Which means, if it is a false claim, they would have to have been planning to make it for some time. And I don't see any real evidence of that.

Kairyuu, I respect your gambits and attempts to draw out scum, mainly because your efforts seem like a more refined and developed version of the types of tactics that I try to use. Your conciliatory posts after several people pointed things out to you bothered me, but I can also see what you were attempting.

All right, now we just wait and see as the replacements weigh in.

[germy]

Is this the classical scummy `oh, I was wrong` post?

Are you saying I'm not? </mykonian>

[germy]

Vote: Scigatt

As far as I can tell, you were "caught up" almost a week ago, October 9th-ish. Even then, each time you have posted has simply been to agree with one side of a conflict or another, without adding anything of your own.

With a week to deadline and 10+ pages of in depth discussion, I don't think any townie should be "happy with their non-voting status" at this point.

I hate voting lurkers. But with my original top suspects "comfirmed" townies (nod to Kairyuu), and no real suspicions of other posters, I'm reduced to such tactics. With already four replacements in the game, it's going to be hard enough finding scum.

But speaking of lurkers...

Kairyuu, remember when I said:

Kairyuu town !=> afatchic scum

Well, I think the following probably

is

true:

Kairyuu + mykonian townie masons => afatchic/Scheherazade scum

Townie lurkers are relatively easy targets for scum, and this was in fact one of my reasons why was increasingly suspicious of Kairyuu and mykonian, originally. Yet, assuming they are masons, then I think scum would have more likely latched onto afatchic as an easier target. Only Artem agreed, but hesitantly and only briefly. No one else did, implying that afatchic-Scheherazade is indeed scum.

And I think Scigatt is his partner.

[germy]

germy, plz vote for the most certain scum first, and then his/her partner. You make less mistakes that way.

I disagree.

At this point I would be content with lynching Scheherazade. But I placed a pressure vote on Scigatt in hopes of getting him to post something of substance.

[germy]

Just a quick check-in...

SilverPhoenix - not nearly as lurky as alvinz95. In response to my thoughts on the Kairyuu-mykonian mason team, I think I have to believe them. I was the first to mention a scum gambit, but I simply don't see the groundwork laid for one.

Sche hasn't changed my mind at all, and Scigatt has still not posted.

*throws hands up in the air*

I'm going to have to go through a reread of most of the other players.

[germy]

All right, opinions!

afatchic - Scheherazade

I never thought afatchic scum, and did not really deserve to be attacked for his lack of posting as much as he was, especially when there were obviously other, and better, targets. Looking back at afatchic's posts, one thing that caught my eye was that when afatchic first responded to Kairyuu regarding his "backpedaling," afatchic didn't continue to "pull away." If aftachich

had

been trying to separate himself from me, he probably would have continued. Instead, he continued to defend me.

As for Sche, at first I thought he was going along with Kairyuu far too easily about his opinions of afatchic and sekinj. But Sche's more recent posts make some very good points regarding his suspicions of sekinj. I had not noticed the fact that sekinj did not respond to Kairyuu's "confirm my alignment" for two posts, even quoting Kairyuu in one. His subsequent attack on Kairyuu, and quick vote, not to mention the quick unvote, is suspicious.

However

, I am going to have to keep Sche near the top of my list, simply based on the voting patterns. Since Kairyuu and mykonian were the proponents of the lynch, my interpretations are either:

1. the claimed masons are mafia
   
2. Artem is mafia
   
3. the mafia were reluctant to cast a vote on someone a townie was gunning for
   
4. Sche is mafia.

So, I would hazard that: if Sche is Town => Artem is mafia. The contrapositive would not hold, because since Artem's vote was so temporary, I could envision mafia casting a quick vote on a scumbuddy.

---

Nightwolf - wolframnhart

Nightwolf I felt was thoughtful and protown, wolf has relatively little to go on besides his initial read-through. Not particularly suspicious.

---

Edify - Scigatt

Edify did very little but attack my claim outright, and Scigatt's "non-voting status" comment really irked me. On the one hand, I agree with his recent post saying that afatchic or Sche were suspicious, yet Scigatt's agreement implies to me: if Scigatt mafia <=> Sche mafia.

Scigatt: we have three days left until Twilight. Are you

still

happy not voting? I hope not. At this point, my vote remains on you until you do.

---

ChuckNorris - Ku_F

Very little to go on. I felt relatively neutral about ChuckNorris, and Ku_F has offered nothing.

---

alvinz95 - SilverPhoenix

Alvinz95 did little but attack me in his few posts, but SilverPhoenix has been a fount of great play, whose opinions and suspicions closely match my own.

---

That's it for all of our replacements, this game. Tune in next time for my thoughts on the remaining players!

[germy]

Well, not that I'm actively defending Sche, or anything, but his "scum slip" had to be a mistake of some sort, and not an actual slip (whether he's mafia or Town).

As I said

in my very first post

, we know there have to be three mafia, the reason being that since I new I was a dependent role, there were a maximum of five Ts - and therefore a minimum of three mafia.

Kairyuu - your attack on Sche for that supposed "slip" is very scummy on your part: you are distorting the facts. If you are indeed a mason, then from your point of view, we are

at least

in a MMTTTTT situation. Looking at the game setup should tell you that we are guaranteed three mafia.

Kairyuu, either you know with certainty there are three mafia because you are a mason, or because you are mafia trying to cast doubt on Sche.

Sche's "slip," unless he is being extremely subtle and manipulative, is a townie slip, since the mafia would

know

they have three members.

Or,

Kairyuu, mykonian, and Sche are the three mafia, playing a crazy gambit.

[germy]

Sche - that's what I said.

[germy]

Why do people have to wait until the last week to really participate in discussion?

Unvote

Vote: springlullaby

I'm going to make this short and sweet.

For the most part, you've just pointed fingers without explaining yourself. The only times you've put an effort into an explanation has been to defend the fact that you have the right to point fingers.

[germy]

Vote:Scheherazade

Him or Scigatt. There additional votes, especially right at the end near Deadline, reek of scum to me. I'd be perfectly happy with either.

[germy]

I really need to hear reactions from Kairyuu and germy regarding the lack of a nightkill.

If we have an SK, the mafia was able to pinpoint exactly the player and the mafia roleblocker (yes,

THE

) blocked them. I doubt that is very likely at all. If we have a vig, I don't believe they would have tried on Night 1, considering the slight tendency toward town agreement to not kill on the first Night.

My previous post was before I had read any part of the thread. Just read through, and I agree with Wall-E. Not regarding my play, of course, but with his plans for the Day.

Unvote: Scherherazade

Vote: sekinj

[germy]

I have always wanted to be a part of a mafia game where a good portion of the Town organizes within the first couple Days, then methodically lynches scum one by one. I believe this semi-open setup, and my original softclaim, allows for that possibility, and I believe we may see that happen this game.

At this point, if sekinj is mafia => Wall-E is town. The converse, and contrapositive, in this case, are also true. Which is why I'm voting sekinj instead of Scheherazade or Scigatt. I'm hoping we can go into Day 2 with Wall-E, myself, Kairyuu, and mykonian as "confirmed townies," and rally the rest of the Town into lynching the remaining scum.

My hopes, anyway.

[germy]

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of CF_Riot and wolftamnhart. My "scumbuddydar" is pinging like crazy.

These are silly questions you are asking, and reek of fishing. If a townie says they are not going to reveal their reasoning right away, it's better not to push them. If they're mafia, they won't say anything, anyway. It sounds like wolframnhart is trying to build suspicion on someone for this.

Also, only power roles could possibly have any relevant "thoughts on Night actions." The only thoughts ordinary townies will have regarding N1 would be, "Wow, cool. Maybe we have a doc or blocker, probably not an SK." Any significant thoughts

beyond

this would imply a power role, and it seems like that's the information CF_Riot is looking for.

[germy]

Blast. There goes my theory.

Unvote: sekinj

I would much rather lynch Scigatt. Why are you focusing exclusively on the afatchic thing? On the one hand, I agree with you: I saw nothing particularly scummy with afatchic's few posts. However, the fact that you are addressing

nothing else

, and seem to think that people are still asking you about it when they are not, seems like you are misleading and avoiding.

Vote: Scigatt

(again).

[germy]

Wall-E - Your confidence in voting sekinj with so-called "reasons to explain later" implied that you knew with surety that sekinj was scum. Meaning: you are a Cop that investigated sekinj to get a mafia result, or you are a Roleblocker who blocked sekinj and resulting in no night kill. Since you unvoted, neither of these must be the case, and although I am still somewhat suspicious of sekinj, not as much so as I am of others.

I am actually more suspicious of you, now. In response to CF_Riot, you didn't actually answer his question. What "case" did you build, beside pinging scumdar? Again, what was your real reason for voting sekinj in the first place? And why did you feel the need to keep such reasoning secret?

CF_Riot - There is a difference between someone voting for no reason, and someone voting for a reason that they won't reveal. Pressuring scum that simply provides no reason can be enlightening, based on their reaction. But a player that claims to have a reason, but won't reveal, whether townie or scum, will have the exact same reaction: "I'll provide it later," or "I have my reasons."

I didn't "mention it earlier" because I'm forgiving of one or two instances. It's the repetition of what I see as fishing that looks scummy. And why moreso that SilverPhoenix? Because this "fishing" represents a much higher percentage of your posts.

[germy]

Wall-E - you still never answered CF_Riot's question. Why did you vote sekinj? (Besides "he pinged my scumdar"). You specifically said you had a reason, and built a case.

And you didn't answer my question. If sekinj just "felt scummy" to you, why did you need to keep this to yourself when you voted?

[germy]

Okay. So, at the time of your vote, when you said you had a case and a reason, you had none, right?

Unvote

Vote: Wall-E

[germy]

It's not arguing semantics. You lied.

[germy]

Can you quote the lie(s)?

Sure.

I have reasons, but wish to withhold stating them publicly for now. I also have a reason for that, but I'll save that, too.

When I started my readthrough, he kept pinging on my scumdar. I started to build a case on him. I went to bed. I woke up. I read my case again. I wasn't quite sold.

When I asked those questions I was judging his reactions as a kind of a final yes/no judgement. I think he's questioning, paying close attention to the thread, and generally doing very helpful things (assuming he's town, which I now do), so I'm happy to let him continue to ask questions and provide content for today.

The strikethrough text is irrelevant, since it took place

after

your vote on sekinj.

I can go through the thread and pick them out if you'd like, but building a case against someone I think is town seems distasteful to me.

And this implies that you never did build a case.

The

only

reason you have stated for voting sekinj was for "pinging your scumdar." This is not "reasons," let alone needing to save it. Either you were being intentionally misleading, or you still have not shared your reasons for voting sekinj in the first place.

---

I still agree that Scigatt, by lurking, his tunnelvision posts, and his vote on springlullaby, is likely mafia and I will be fine voting for him. However, the fact that Wall-E didn't actually build a case against sekinj until

after

he voted for her, instead of before (as he claimed), I find incredibly suspicious.

---

I didn't do the second. No one I've asked questions to so far have said they have reasons that can't/won't be revealed.
...
It was only 1 string of questions, it just had to be repeated twice because people seemed to miss/ignore the original post. They never said, "I have an answer, but I'm holding it," none of them made any comment at all, which made me think they just didn't see it.

These were in reference to wolframnhart, who was asking it of Wall-E. I called you out for fishing by continually asking about "thoughts on night actions."

---

Germy, you said that with me asking Wall-E about his reasons for voting Sek were suspicious, that along with the questioning of CF_Riot, i was becoming suspicious to you. Little bit later you start asking Wall-E the same line of questioning about his reasons and now there is nothing wrong with it?

Nope, not the same at all. You repeatedly were asking when Wall-E said

he was purposefully withholding his reasoning.

I have asked only after Wall-E unvoted and began providing his explanation, of which I have repeatedly attempted to clarify.

Two very different things.

I'm becoming more suspicious of germy as well, for reasons that Wolf mentioned. He's being hypocritical in his behavior towards Wall-E. Not enough for a real case at this point, but I'm just putting that out there.

---

You also seemed very confident of your ability to back up your vote: I thought that we'd get your reasons in due time and I could make a better judgement then. Of course, if they never came, I would have been rather suspicious, too.

Since the reasons never did come (for his reasoning

before

the vote, not the case he built

after

), are you suspicious of Wall-E, now?

---

My thoughts on sekinj (not scum) and Scigatt (scum) remain the same, and have only been reinforced, since Yesterday. I'm more suspicious of Wall-E and definitely of wolframnhart, though I doubt both are scum together.

I have no problem lynching Scigatt before the replacement comes in to muddy the issues.

[germy]

The reasons why I don't have a problem lynching Scigatt before being replaced -

• I'm assuming a replacement will not occur soon, especially given our dense 25+ pages, and we won't have one until a couple days before Deadline. I don't believe, once a replacement comes in, they will have enough time to claim, discuss,
  and
  for us to come to a lynch decision.
  
• I think Scigatt is scum, and as such I have no real intention of believing any claim he may have to make.

[germy]

Why do

you

, the claimed

back-up role

, have any reason to not hear a claim? You should be anticipating it the most, because if it's a fake claim that doesn't match your own role, you should be there to shoot it down. If it does match your role, you can confirm it, and if it's a fake then we should get a counter-claim from someone which will damn Scig and confirm you all at once. I'm starting to question Germy's claim more and more as the game goes on. It made sense to me when we didn't have a NK, so I trusted it pretty strongly. That's falling apart now.

I think it would be downright stupid for a real townie power role to counterclaim if Scigatt/replacement claims a power role. I have no reason to believe that Scigatt actually is a role that I can confirm/deny. I am not interested in confirming my role, or any other power townie counterclaiming, just because Scigatt's replacement says so.

My thoughts are these: Either we lynch scum now before a claim, or we wait for the replacement to make a claim, a townie power role outs himself to be killed, and we lynch the scum anyway. Option 1 seems far better.

[germy]

Wall-E, you are assuming there are even chances that Scigatt is Town.
As well as assuming we will automatically believe the counter-claimer.

Any role claimed I will view through the lens of him being scum, whether there is a counterclaim or not, and assume that the replacement is lying. I would rather not make a 1-for-1 trade,

especially

for a townie power role, when we can have a 1-for-0 trade.

[germy]

Again, you're not considering that Scig might really be a power role. We've all pretty much agreed that if you're telling the truth, the set-up is something like M M X X _ _ _ right? What happens if we have MMM XX _ _ and Scig is the child? All I'm saying is you don't know with certainty that Scig has to be either scum or vanilla, so I think it's totally worth it to find out before we rush into lynching him.

Actually, I am considering it. I just think that the chances are so low, and the risks too high, to warrant it.

If we wait for a replacement, there is going to be an ugly scramble of votes and unvotes during the last few days before Deadline. I don't like the uncertainty resulting from that, nor the upper hand the mafia gets in that situation.

There is a

chance

, sure, that Scigatt is town, maybe with a power role. But if he's scum (which I believe to be

far

more likely), then if he claims a power role

he won't be lynched.

People might be too hesitant, combined with the fact there won't be any time for discussion.

Plus

, I don't want a real townie to out himself, just to get killed.

The danger of a no lynch and of a townie power role counterclaiming are far greater and likely than Scigatt being Town.

[germy]

That's not your call to make. It's up to everyone.

Well,

duh!

That's why we have to vote in order to lynch. But that's my opinion, and the direction which I would like to see the Day go.

---

Opinions!

These are my current thoughts. Mostly based on feel, admittedly, as there has been little to no evidence of anything since the lynch. But here goes:

Scum

• Scigatt
  /Edify
  - actively lurking, when he does post it's to cast doubt on posters in long-resolved discussions, and for the last minute springlullaby vote. Not to mention my original suspicion of Edify.
  
• wolframnhart
  /Nightwolf
  and CF_Riot - The conversations that seemed to be going on just between them two, the token questioning. Attempting to fish for power roles (imo) and trying to hold up the Scigatt lynch.

Neutral

• Scheherazade
  /afatchic
  and SilverPhoenix
  /alvinz95
  - I get no particular vibes, both are involved, and nothing overtly scummy.
  
• Wall-E
  /Ku_F/ChuckNorris
  - I disagree with his interpretations and playstyle, but that warrantless vote on sekinj, and (imo) lying about his reasons, is very scummy. To answer a previous question, why would scum do that? Well, to feel out a sekinj lynch.

Town

• Shanba
  /Artem
  - discussion has seemed careful (Artem), thoughtful (Shanba) and pretty town.
  
• Kairyuu and mykonian - 'nuff said
  
• sekinj - never thought she was scummy. A quiet townie.

[germy]

I also have a suspicion on Germy. He has claimed a back up role, and perhaps he is not lying about that, but he has a vote on someone he has in the "neutral" zone and is saying he is for a scigatt lynch, but does not put his vote there.

I was wondering when someone would notice this. Since you were the one to point it out, you've just moved down, slightly, my scummy list. At least, if Scigatt is also scum. I figure you drawing attention to me not voting for Scigatt would not be something a scum partner would necessarily do.

Unvote

Vote: Scigatt

[germy]

Crap, just saw the replacement. So, officially,

Vote: Natirasha

The case:

• Actively lurking, and Scigatt's only responses were to shed doubt on players by reviving long-dead discussions. This was not just catching up, because he would reference more recent posts. His sudden vote on springlullaby without explanation cemented his/your scumminess, in my mind.

[germy]

Triple post!

To forewarn: yes, I realize the above reasons are not overwhelmingly convincing. However, I find them the most convincingly scum of any other player, considering that we have so little objective evidence.

All we have to go on is springlullaby's lynch. With no night kills, there is no additional evidence. So, assuming that at least one of us on springlullaby's lynch was indeed mafia, Scigatt's vote was the most suspect. Combined with the content of his posts, I believe him to be the most likely scum.

[germy]

Your third post is a bit awkward, maybe nervous?

Or a wish for more objective evidence upon which to base a decision?

[germy]

Hol-ee she-aight. I guess I stand corrected; we now have plenty of information to go around.

I'm going to have to look back through everything, now, and study the relationships between all involved. I know we have a mafia roleblocker, so either SilverPhoenix or Natirasha could be telling a half-truth.

The claims are:

Natirasha/Scigatt blocked Scheherazade.
SilverPhoenix blocked Artem/Shanba.

Meaning,

One of Natirasha/SilverPhoenix is mafia

and

one of Scheherazade/Shanba is mafia.

Or

this is a fantastic scum gambit.

Regarding Natirasha's claim:

it makes absolutley

no sense

that Scigatt would have blocked Scherherazade: Scigatt defended her and afatchic with every one of the very few posts he made. Not only that, but Scigatt defended Scheherazade at the start of Day 2, after supposedly blocking the mafia kill. Neither Scigatt nor Natirasha voted for Scherherazade in their initial posts of Day 2.

My vote stays.

The chances of two townie roleblockers are next to nil.

Although I have to admit that SilverPhoenix's claim is very, very,

mildly

suspicious.

It was obvious that Natirasha was lying about the roleblock: there was no reason to counterclaim and make your role known as proof. I'm considering the non-zero chance that you are both scum attempting to guarantee the Town status of the other when the lynchee turns up mafia. Also, SilverPhoenix's reveal somewhat necessitates my own reveal. I have to admit that I am not the backup blocker, which is why I remain slightly suspicious. I am the nurse.

Regarding the current Scheherazade bandwagon:

No, just no. Scheherazade's lynch gives us no information. If he's scum, it could be Natirasha-as-scum trying to confuse Town or vindicate himself if the Town falls for it. If Scheherazade's Town, then we've lost a townie at the expense of confirming Natirasha as scum-

which we can pretty much already guarantee.

We need to lynch Natirasha. His claim

makes no sense

.

[germy]

Anyone see a problem with my assessment?

Yes. You assume we are lynching in a vacuum. We are not.

We only learn something if we lynch Scherherazade/Shanba

and they are Town

, at which point we have confirmed a mafia member. That's a 1-for-1 trade. Which is normally worth it for the town,

unless the mafia are trying to get us to lynch a townie to prevent a

0-for-1 trade!

You should start with the targets, imo. If one of the two targets: Shanba or Zade, flips scum, we know their protector is town, and the other RB is scum.

Not true!

If Scherherazade, for example, flips scum, then Natirasha-as-scum could have easily outed a fellow mafia to not only prevent his own lynch (preventing the lynch of the mafia roleblocker), but to also, hopefully, guarantee his own "towniehood." I see this as definitely within the realm of possibility, since Natirasha could easily have assumed that he was going to be lynched if he didn't do something.

If we lynch a target, a Town status tells us the claimer is possibly mafia.
If we lynch a target, a Mafia status tells us the claimer is possibly town.

If we lynch a claimer, a Town status tells us the target

is mafia

.
If we lynch a claimer, a Mafia status tells us the target is possibly town.

Lynching the claimer gives us a higher probability of

concrete

information, paired with the fact that Natirasha is

obviously lying!

[germy]

Crap, I misspoke.

If we lynch a target, a Town status tells us the claimer is possibly mafia.
If we lynch a target, a Mafia status tells us the claimer is possibly town.

If we lynch a claimer, a Town status tells us the target

is mafia.

If we lynch a claimer, a Mafia status tells us the target is possibly town.

Should read this:

If we lynch a target, a Town status tells us the claimer

is mafia.

.
If we lynch a target, a Mafia status tells us the claimer is possibly town.

If we lynch a claimer, a Town status tells us the target

is mafia.

If we lynch a claimer, a Mafia status tells us the target is possibly town.

Ie,

only if we lynch a townie

do we discover with surety that the other is mafia. I would prefer to not lynch a townie in order to learn that. Especially, again, when we know that Natirasha is lying.

[germy]

This is why I didn't want to hear a claim from Natirasha, or anyone to counterclaim.

However, the fact that SilverPhoenix was the target gives us some insight into the mafia's thought process. With ten players going into Night (2 of which are mafia, and 4 of which were "confirmed townies"), they had a 1 in 4 chance of hitting the doc. Instead, they chose to kill the confirmed roleblocker (who probably had at least a 1 in 4 chance of being protected).

This tells me that they considered SilverPhoenix a greater threat. Meaning that SilverPhoenix was indeed the one to block the kill, instead of the doc protecting their target.

Vote: Shanba

Mykonian is also right about Scherherazade. With Scigatt doing little but defending him points to him as mafia, too. I'd be willing to lynch Scherherazade.

However, I am also suspicious of CF_Riot for wanting us to wait for Natirasha's claim, and for actively wanting a counterclaim. Which, of course, led directly to SilverPhoenix's death.

[germy]

Holy cow, I return to find everyone already massclaiming!

For the record, before this thing ends and everything gets crazy, I advocate this massclaim.

For the record:

springlullaby was

Vanilla Town

SilverPhoenix was

Roleblocker

germy claimed

Nurse

Kairyuu claimed

Mason

mykonian claimed

Mason

Scheherazade (afatchic) claimed

Vanilla Town

CF Riot claimed

Vanilla Town

Wall-E (ChuckNorris) claimed

Vanilla Town

sekinj claimed

Vanilla Town

Shanba (Artem)

unclaimed

wolframnhart (Nightwolf)

unclaimed

[germy]

wolf needs to claim.

[germy]

All right everyone,

I am a lying townie!

This is a long, but very important post, with a good portion of it composed in advance. Beware.

I am not the Nurse - I am the Backup Roleblocker. Which means that I am now the Blocker and I am guaranteed to die Tonight.

I breadcrumbed my lie:

The chances of two townie roleblockers are next to ni

l

.

Although I have to admit that SilverPhoenix's claim is very, very,

mildly

suspiciou

s

.

It was obvious that Natirasha was lying about the roleblock: there was no reason to counterclaim and make your role known as proo

f

. I'm considering the non-zero chance that you are both scum attempting to guarantee the Town status of the other when the lynchee turns up mafi

a

. Also, SilverPhoenix's reveal somewhat necessitates my own revea

l

. I have to admit that I am not the backup blocker, which is why I remain slightly suspiciou

s

. I am the nurs

e

.

Take the last letter of every sentence, and it spells out:

ls false

. Granted, using the lowercase "L" for an "I" is kinda cheating, but the breadcrumb is still straightforward.

---

Why?

The short answer - I tried to save SilverPhoenix. I believed him completely, and knew 100% Natirasha was lying when he claimed he blocked Scherherazade. I hoped by claiming Nurse, the mafia would be faced with the following choice:

• Choose between the four unclaimed townies and hope to hit the Doc. However, even if they missed, the player targeted would be unlikely to be protected, and the mafia could more-or-less guarantee a successful kill,
  
  or...
  
  
• Target one of the four claimed townies, hoping that the one chosen would not be protected. SilverPhoenix would be the most likely one protected, and so, at the least, the mafia would not target him.

Unfortunately, the mafia did not fall for my gambit. Which means one of two things:

• The mafia said "who cares?" and targeted the player that was the most likely to be protected by the Doc,
  
  or...
  
  
• The mafia knew I was lying, because a mafia godfather, goon, and blocker, without an SK, means a TTT setup. Impossible if my claim gave us MMBDDxx.

And if the mafia knew I was lying, then that means we are indeed in the following setup:

MMBBTTT

.

Of course, I gambled on the fact that we

could

have been in MMMBBDT, MMBBCCT, MMBBDVT, or MMMBBVT, and gotten our real Doc, Cop, Vig, or Innocent killed. I considered that 1) the chances were unlikely, and 2) that the

possibility

of a different power role getting killed was better than the

guarantee

that SilverPhoenix be killed

if I claimed my true role of backup blocker.

I decided claiming Nurse, in an attempt to fool the mafia, was the better play.

---

So what does this mean?

Well, first, I was waiting to see if the mafia claimed a power role that did not fit. For instance, it one claimed Doc, but there was no Innocent, then the claimed-Doc would have been lying. There are a few other possible claims that would have pointed to scum, too. Since everyone claimed Vanilla Town, that means they did not attempt this gambit.

Second,

Shanba is mafia

. The fact that SilverPhoenix was targeted, and did die, practically proves that the mafia know we have TTT and that there is no doc. Which is why I voted for Shanba with my first post. The only way the mafia kill was prevented was from SilverPhoenix's block. Or else the mafia simply decided not to kill, or did not notify the Mod in time, but I would rather not go down that road.

Third, I was hoping that

someone else

, besides Kairyuu, would have requested a mass claim. That would have implied that the mafia wanted to try their gambit (see above), or to prove that I was lying (by claiming Vanilla). Instead, I'll have to analyze those that were simply the most gung-ho for it.

Fourth, remember when I explicitly "trusted" Wall-E when he voted sekinj? That was my mistake. Wall-E's confidence and quick vote convinced me that

he

was the blocker, and had blocked sekinj the Night before. Turns out it was SilverPhoenix he blocked Shanba, so I am doing the same thing here.

And fifth, I will die Tonight, as surely as SilverPhoenix did. If not, then the mafia are playing a terrible WIFOM game. I was also hoping to glean some more information from this Day with my "disguise," but with such a quick mass claim I had no choice.

---

So, the question of the Day is:

Who is Shanba's scumbuddy?

[germy]

If you tell us who you are going to block, and then you don't die, that person is confirmed scum. If you still die, they are confirmed innocent, leaving only 4 unknowns remaining, with 2 mislynches available. Still a 100% win rate.

Not 100% true. The mafia could decide to not kill, in order to convince us to lynch a townie.

[germy]

Kairyuu, if the mafia could figure out I was lying yesterday, based on setup, then they are also savvy enough to no-kill on a Night when I proclaim my block target.

[germy]

By the way, I

do not advocate the speedlynch of Shanba

. We need to spend this time analyzing who the final scum will be. As such, we should keep Shanba, at most, at L-2, preventing him from self-voting to end the Day.

I especially want to continue studying reactions to my final claim.

[germy]

Wait a second, forgive me, I'm being stupid. Go ahead and speedlynch Shanba.

Town wins, no matter what!

I will block CF_Riot.

[germy]

Hmmm. I find it interesting that others consider a no-kill is more likely than me blocking the right target. I was going to actually press for a CF_Riot lynch.

Until I saw this:

And each night that no-kill is submitted or scum is blocked, we gain more free mislynches.

Given this, I would much rather lynch Wall-E or wolframnhart. I know you're zealous, Kairyuu, and want to be right, but I don't see anything for a Scheherazade lynch. If anything, Natirasha (scum) claiming to have blocked Scheherazade, while SilverPhoenix blocked Shanba (scum), seems to indicate that Scheherazade is indeed Town.

I'm not going to vote Scheherazade, and I'm trusting CF_Riot more based on that one quote.

Vote: Wall-E

I will block Wall-E Tonight.

[germy]

Unless you are scum, Wall-E... You already claimed.

[germy]

Wow.

If Wall-E is lynched, I will block wolframnhart.

CF_Riot: you mentioned how the more no-kills that are submitted, the more free lynches we get. If you were scum, I believe you would either not believe that or not advertise it.

And just to confirm, yes, I blocked CF_Riot last Night.

[germy]

Because I'm inclined to believe:
Scheherazade = town
sekinj = town
CF_Riot = town

Why would I block someone I think is town?

That leaves Wall-E (who I would block if someone else was lynched and flipped town) and wolframnhart.

[germy]

That was... not expected.

Confirming that I did block wolframnhart, and that wolframnhart is confirmed Town.

The appropriate play, right now, would be to lynch CF_Riot. That was

half the point

to me blocking him, originally. Although a no-kill does not guarantee that the player I blocked is scum, a no-kill

is

guaranteed when I do.

Ugh, I wish I had been more vocal about this before, but I got caught up in the "Let's just lynch suspicious scum!" The appropriate play was to lynch whoever I blocked when there was no kill.

The fact that there was no kill when I blocked CF_Riot, yet a kill when I blocked a townie, means my attention has focused back on CF_Riot.

My lynch-order preference:
CF_Riot
Scherherazade
sekinj

Vote: CF_Riot

The past couple

Days

have

gone by quite fast, though. I would at least like to hear from sekinj. I will not announce an official "block target" until after sekinj responds.

[germy]

If we lynch CF_Riot, I will block Scheherazade.

If we lynch someone else, I will block CF_Riot.

One of the reasons I wanted to wait for sekinj to post was to test a possible, though unlikely, theory.

There is

one

situation that might lead to a scum win, at this point, I think. If we get to lynch-or-lose and the real scum manages to convince the Town that

I

am scum, pulling a massive gambit. I wanted to look for any hints of such foreshadowing. I didn't see any.

[germy]

Goddamnit, why are we having such trouble finding that last scum? I know we can't lose, but

come on

- it's frustrating being this unsuccessful.

If sekinj is scum... you had me convinced, good job.

[germy]

and...

Vote: sekinj

My scum gambit worked! The Mafia wins! Mwahahahaha!

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Just kidding. Go Town!

I can't believe that sekinj was the last scum, I was pretty convinced you weren't.

I'm eager now to see the end-of-game discussion... I want to know what you all were thinking...

[germy]

If sekinj had not no-killed, I think he would have won, especially if he even left me alive. I am absolutely horrible at finding scum, aren't I?

I am curious, from the assorted mafiaso - What was thought of my "Nurse" claim at the time, and was I anywhere near the mark with my gambit?

[germy]

I concur - a great setup, great modding, and great game.

That was some good mafia play on sekinj's part. Despite the pressure early on, she remained collected.

And thanks for the generous amount of discussion, everyone. It made the game very fun, and I would love to play with any of you again!