Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I mean, 2ndchosen, what do you think of me repeatedly saying that NSG is my most confident town read and someone I'm basically never considering as scum at this point.
I'm not asking you to sheep me unquestionably but I found it so odd you're pursuing this seemingly without pause or without questioning my read?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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okay that's fairIn post 1390, 2ndchosen1 wrote:
I didn't really see a why beyond the solo solving sessions and meta in 1329. I partially dismissed the meta as it wasn't enough for me to interact with and the solo sessions are a definitely a point in favor of NSG.In post 1353, Dannflor wrote:
I'm not really considering NSG at all at this pointIn post 1351, unwnd wrote:It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read
I suppose asking you to take my word for it meta-wise is a bit much. I was just surprised to see not even any real questioning of "how sure are you really about this" in my direction.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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First letter of every sentence including quotesIn post 1497, Lunar Martian wrote:
I don't see the breadcrumb?In post 1481, Kazyan wrote:
It's me. Hi. I breadcrumbed it in 1372.In post 1479, Dannflor wrote:Also, I think the vig should claim now
Sorry about the bad shots.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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both of you really, that's what I thought I just wanted to confirmIn post 1503, unwnd wrote:Not sure if this was directed towards me-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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The real vig would have counter-counter-claimed if that were the caseIn post 1502, Lunar Martian wrote:Why wait to crumb until day four? I kinda think this is a SvS gambit.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I don't think it actually says much towards their alignment considering just a page ago they were wondering if perhaps I was a scum ICIn post 1503, unwnd wrote:Lunar thinking this could be SvS is also-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I do want this answered though.In post 1502, Lunar Martian wrote:Why wait to crumb until day four?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I figured it's just still likeIn post 1509, Lunar Martian wrote:
That was a joke. [Joke]Next time ill put joke tags around it[/Joke]In post 1507, Dannflor wrote:
I don't think it actually says much towards their alignment considering just a page ago they were wondering if perhaps I was a scum ICIn post 1503, unwnd wrote:Lunar thinking this could be SvS is also
you say pretty off the wall stuff sometimes-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I also want this stillIn post 1508, Dannflor wrote:
I do want this answered though.In post 1502, Lunar Martian wrote:Why wait to crumb until day four?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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honestly kind of a strange post to make if Lunar is aligned with either of themIn post 1502, Lunar Martian wrote:Why wait to crumb until day four? I kinda think this is a SvS gambit.
not unfakeable I suppose but definitely not an expected scum post-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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hmIn post 1113, Kazyan wrote:Are we sure these second night kills come from a vigilante rather than a serial killer?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I'm guessing this is where you got the idea to crumb?In post 1532, Kazyan wrote:I also like to read the wiki-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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I guess one question is why NSG was killed over Lunar if the team is something like unwnd/2nd, and the only really satisfying answer I can think of barring extreme WIFOM is that lunar would have to be scum... But I'm not sure I really believe they are aligned with anyone here.In post 1326, northsidegal wrote:
(which currently seem to me to be the two most likely teams, if it wasn't clear)In post 1323, northsidegal wrote:kaz/elements and kaz/2nd
thing is i don't have a lot of reasons to scumread 2nd individually and honestly the connections between kaz and 2nd are a little sparse, at least purely from memory-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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In post 443, Lunar Martian wrote:
Well this post kind of sums up my thoughts on NoPower very nicely. NoPower makes a lot of short posts that don't say much. Most of them just serve to lightly discredit other people (in this case discrediting me somewhat and elements somewhat more). I also think this post is pretty ironic given what NoPower proceeded to do the next few days in terms of going after me. For someone who keeps touting the importance of finding Town, I'm not sure who NoPower thinks is Town. Not even sure if he ever even answered who is in the "townblock".In post 168, NoPowerOverMe wrote:Also I don't like elements voting limbaity Lunar.
this makes it feel like a lunar/unwnd team is somewhat unlikelyIn post 458, Lunar Martian wrote:I want to give a list of my thoughts.
These folks are of the Town: Gamma, Hayker, Ben, Kazyan probably, Papa Zito maybe.
Elements has a fair shot of being Town.
Unsure of Alchemist, HeWhoSwims, and 2ndchosen1.
I think PenguinPower and NoPower are probably my two top picks for Mafia.
although this suspicion is dropped later somewhat randomly-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Did you really? You were voting Hayker at the end of day 1In post 1529, Kazyan wrote:I got a Bulletproof Townie eliminated
also Kazyan I feel like I need an explanation on thisIn post 1113, Kazyan wrote:Are we sure these second night kills come from a vigilante rather than a serial killer?-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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hmmm I mean it would certainly explain why AGar was night killed if he perfectly nailed the scum team day 1In post 576, AGar wrote:Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.
No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.
{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.
VOTE: Hayker-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Lunar, if you remember, I need an explanation on what happened hereIn post 492, Lunar Martian wrote:So I think I was confused when I scumread NoPower.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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not helpfulIn post 1572, unwnd wrote:Dann if you vote me over Kaz after that post I don't even know what to say lol
I'll lay out my thought process tonight and hopefully come to a decision by tomorrow-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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Here's the deal unwnd. I'm prepared to vote you. I'll explain my reasoning so you have your chance to call me out as stupid or an idiot or whatever. But really, if you're town, I'd love it if you tried a strategy that wasn't just guilting me into voting Kazyan because the AtE doesn't actually make me want to vote you any less.
If we talk about purely gut reads, my town read of Kazyan has basically just steadily grown throughout the game, while I keep having to talk myself into town reading your slot. NPOM I town read heavily for D1, but I fear now I was just pocketed.
And, honestly, the facts seem to point towards town!Kazyan and scum!unwnd.
For the most part, I'm assuming you aren't scum aligned with 2ndchosen1. Maybe it's possible, but looking at your guys' rather unproductive back and forth over the last couple day phases, I have a really hard time seeing it as theatre. It looks either TvT or SvT. If it really is just distancing, bravo.
So, let's look at the objective facts of the game because my gut is so twisty turny and AtE has not helped that one bit.
1. NPOM is the sole hard defender of the Alchemist wagon D1. It is an IC backed wagon on town that looks like it's the surefire end of day wagon. NPOM makes posts like this, this, and this to state his opposition to the Alchemist wagon. He also lists 2nd and Elements as the most suspicious on the wagon while he votes Penguin Power. Shortly after these posts, I change my mind on Alchemist and come in with several lengthy posts detailing why we should switch to Hayker, backing up AGar's original case.
Immediately after this, NPOM votes like so:
2. After AGar posts a case on Hayker and details his reads coming into the game, Lunar Martian votes him here. Citing this reasoning:In post 691, NoPowerOverMe wrote:Hayker isn't my first choice but I can vote him as a compromise wagon.
VOTE: Hayker
Then as the Alchemist wagon picks up, only to switch to Hayker due to me backing up AGar, Lunar posts this series:In post 627, Lunar Martian wrote:
His reads seem backwards and he's being overly aggressive. Feels like he's trying to bully his way into having people think he's Town.In post 626, Gamma Emerald wrote:whyIn post 642, Lunar Martian wrote:I think I figured something out and won't be voting for Papa today. I'd go for alchemist, and AGar is actually making sense about Hayker too. Want to see more from Hayker before I decide. For now I'll vote alchemist.
VOTE: alchemistIn post 670, Lunar Martian wrote:
Dislike this.In post 645, Kazyan wrote:VOTE: Hayker
AGar's "screw Hayker" masterpost is convincing. I basically have no idea what Hayker's broader reads are.
Willing to switch to Alchemist at a moment's notice, though.
3. After I try to solve the game on Day 2 and fail miserably by putting both Papa Zito and the NSG slot in my scum team, Kazyan posts this:In post 702, Lunar Martian wrote:At this point we've been around in circles so many times that I'm getting a bit lost. I think the day needs to end. I had a very good feeling about Hayker before, but if that's the direction people want to go I'll vote there if people want. Still prefer Alchemist I think.
They also continue the next day phase with posts such as this and this.In post 853, Kazyan wrote:Going to partially object to Section 5 in the gamesolve post, here, and shine a light on 2ndchosen1. He is the only other player who cast some kind of doubt on Hayker being scum, in 820. This was a WIFOM argument, and PZ's defense of the "neither Hayker nor Dannflor died, but that was all according to plan" isalsoa WIFOM argument. These ideas feel like they're following the same side-chat playbook. Further, HWS has offered a reason for not voting for Hayker tonight, while 2nd has merely made commentary, the same way that PZ has.
My vote is already placed on Hayker. Everyone in this conversation aside from PZ has also done so. To the next person to show up: please hammer before the end of the forum page.
4. We know that the night kills were: AGar, Papa Zito, northsidegal, and in that order. We know that the vig shots were: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald, and either a holster if Kazyan is the vig or an attempted shot at 2ndchosen1 if unwnd is the vig.
5. Finally, Kazyan immediately responded to AGar's initial case on Hayker with:In post 645, Kazyan wrote:VOTE: Hayker
AGar's "screw Hayker" masterpost is convincing. I basically have no idea what Hayker's broader reads are.
Willing to switch to Alchemist at a moment's notice, though.
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My interpretation of this game's events is that unwnd/Lunar is the scum team.
If we refer to point #3, I have a really hard time seeing Kazyan/2ndchosen1 has scum aligned. If you are town unwnd, I'm surprised you haven't noticed this yourself and that you seem to have so little paranoia about Lunar Martian. Post #853 is *really* unnecessary from a scum buddy that just saw the IC make a game solve post that includes two townies and one of their buddies. Kazyan is basically saying, oh well you've caught Hayker? Let me throw 2ndchosen1 in for you too! And like, it's not just random either, they vote and push 2ndchosen1 for a little while before they flip their read in #1224 which reads to me like a genuine reappraisal of the slot. There's no real reason for this flip to if Kazyan had decided they wanted to soft-bus or hard-bus. It's just too weird of a progression to come from scum buddies in my opinion. Am I missing something here?
I feel points #1 and #2 are fairly self explanatory. Obviously, you can't answer for your predecessor's actions. But to explain my thought process, NPOM's defense of Alchemist doesn't feel real. It feels like the type of defense scum does when they KNOW town is about to flip and they want to absolve themselves as well as setting up future eliminations. NPOM specifically names 2nd chosen and elements as scummiest on the wagon, but doesn't actually try to push them in any discernible way even after the flip. It just feels like setting them up to set them up. His vote on Hayker only comes *after* I specifically drive the wagon over to him and only as a compromise.
Lunar's progression is all over the place too. First Lunar immediately pushes AGar after AGar posts his reads list, stating it feels fake and too aggressive. Later, Lunar revises this into "AGar is making sense about Hayker" and eventually votes Hayker as a compromise even though Lunar 'would really rather switch to Alchemist.'
In retrospect, both of these progressions are *really bad.* They smell of scum hoping they can get the Alchemist wagon in while setting themselves up with as much plausibly deniability as possible. Lunar's reaction to AGar's case and AGar's subsequent death also both make A LOT of sense if AGar had managed to nail the scum team coming into the game.
On the other hand, let's look at Kazyan's response to AGar's case in #5. They immediately vote Hayker. Granted, they do say they'd be willing to switch to Alchemist, but there's really no reason to come in here and back up AGar, the new replacement's, case. This also comes directly after Kazyan speaks about picking a wagon and sticking to it since D1 is getting close to done in #632, which makes it even weirder that Kazyan would stick onto their scum buddy instead of going for the IC approved wagon on town.
Finally, I don't know that I really believe shooting 2ndchosen1 is a decision you make as town? As I've been over, there are serious reasons to doubt that Kazyan/2ndchosen1 are aligned, and the fact that you took such a risk and risked forgoing another day phase of discussion seems really... I mean, I get the impression you are a good mafia player, unwnd. That wasn't a good decision if you're town. Meanwhile, Kazyan claims they holstered as nsg advised in #1309.
And here's the thing about NSG, I thought that night kill would have made most sense coming from a 2ndchosen1/Kazyan team, but that's really not true at all. Checking her ISO, NSG was pretty opposed to the idea of that specific team. In fact, she stated that she thought Lunar/Kazyan was more likely and starting turning around her read on Lunar towards the end of the day. She starts to make more sense as a night kill target from a potential unwnd/Lunar team than Kazyan/2ndchosen1 in that case.
Papa Zito and AGar both suspected the NPOM/unwnd and Lunar slots. Really basic night kill analysis and yes you can always argue WIFOM and that scum were just looking for the vig... But here's the thing, if scum were looking for the vig, they'd also want to shoot slots they suspected of shooting the scum team. There's no point in shooting a vig that's just gonna shoot town. When you put these three night kills together the scum team starts to feel obvious. There's also the small fact of me being alive and basically having NPOM and Lunar as two lean town to town reads the entirety of the game until now.
Also, let's look at this day phase. Honestly, I don't feel like either unwnd or Lunar is still attempting to figure out the game. They feel informed. Of course, Kazyan and unwnd should both lock scum the other. However, I still see Kazyan and 2ndchosen1 expressing some lingering doubts and paranoia despite the game being relatively straight forward. It still feels like they're trying to work things out. Unwnd and Lunar, neither of you feel this way. It just feels like you're waiting for me to make a decision and you have no need to double check yourself. The closest I got was Lunar's weird "SvS" comment but after I corrected that Lunar immediately went to scum!Kazyan as the solve. I just feel like if either of you were town you'd be doing something more right now, reading back over the thread, doublechecking yourself on things, anything. On the other hand, although Kazyan and 2ndchosen1 yes do monologue "without purpose," it does still feel like they are *trying.* And that reads town to me.
In response to this I don't really have anything to say. I don't see what's bad about this wording. Yes, it'll be the big last shot of the game. I don't think "tonight" instead of "today" is a slip. This feels like a weird reachy thing to go all "cmon Dann" over.In post 1578, unwnd wrote:I had a better thought while I looked at it last night, but to summarize it's just a lot of monologuing without purpose, which is funny to me because 2ndchosen/Kaz have basically taken the same approach. The other landmine there is at the end of the post where they say
Like...cmon Dann.possibility and just accept that if, I will use mywe execute unwnd tonighton Lunar and leave the rest to Datisi.last shot
I was actually quite satisfied with Kazyan's explanation that they threw that out there to throw scum off the scent that they might be the vig. Like, yeah it definitely caught my eye at first. But Kazyan seems pretty self aware and I almost don't think they would even try to fake claim vig with this in their ISO. I dunno, if this is the best you have, then I don't know what to say.In post 1579, unwnd wrote:Need I remind you they've also questioned if the 2nd shot was a SK which is such a bizzare thing to do if you know you're the one making the shots
It feels a bit cheap to point something like that but why would a townie by thinking about a night action that involves more than one person
I'm sorry if I'm wrong and I hope you can point out the glaring flaws in my thinking if I am but... I'm not seeing it currently.-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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That's fair and I agree with all of that for the most part.In post 1583, unwnd wrote:I'd rather be wrong than be afraid of being wrong. I was willing to shoulder the blame on 2ndchosen which is why I took the shot, mostly because I have a growing impatience if I have a gun (lol) and because I felt the need to redeem myself. The process of convincing you and saying all of these things is because I know I'm town and I really just want you to trust in me. I said it prior and I hold myself to the same standard: It's not scummy to defend yourself, and I actually take this lesson very closely as I uh, made this mistake in another game. It was one with Lunar in it, where I started to think petapan (my other SE) was scummy cause he spent all this time trying to explain why it wasn't him. Meanwhile, Lunar kept waffling and made a bunch of 'oh im nervous and im unsure' stuff that I started to think was pure, fearing that peta just wanted to wrap the game up.
I have no idea how it really portends to this game. I guess I can buy you just took the shot because you were really confident and/or selfish? But from an objective standpoint I feel it's always better to have another dayphase in this case.
Also, I don't think you're scummy for defending yourself or anything. I'm literally begging you to defend yourself more-
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Dannflor he/himSurvivor
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Dannflor he/himSurvivorhe/him
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