Mini 607 - Cop Central [GAME OVER!]

[Skruffs]

We absolutely should mass claim

our results

.
It forces scum to fake claim a result, which can catch them in a lie later on.

There will be, automatically, 7 results that are "real" and 3 that are fake, and the retired cop who will not have a result. IF more than one person claims not to have a result, one of them is scum.

Before we all claim our results, we should claim who we inspected.
I inspected Aimless.

Again, there's no way to know anyone's sanity, but all cops should be able to narrow their own alignment down to 3 today. (All real cops can eliminate the possibility of them being one of either Naive or Paranoid with their result).

The real question should be if someone should be lynched today or not.


Drool89 has my attention, for not seeming to know much about how this game works.

Fark also has my attention for knowing how the game works and still wanting to not mass claim.

There can only be two of each kind of role. All of us putting all of the information we have out to public use helps us all narrow down the possibilities.

ANd this is the most important thing:
The sane cop who doesn't reveal his result and gets nightkilled can never reveal his result. Plus, when a scum has been targetted he will not know if it is by naive or insane cops if there's an innocent, or sane or paranoid cops if there's a guilty.

So let's all claim our targets, then claim results.

[Skruffs]

vote: Skruffs

for being skruffs.

I'm pretty sure SensFan is not going to reveal what kind of cop was killed (see how he didn't reveal Jenter's) so Skruff's point about the Sane Cop is useless because we won't know if a sane cop died or not.

Way to immediately hope that a sane cop was killed.

And yes, in time, we WILL know if a sane cop was killed, through logic and deduction. That's all this game it. Thank you though for immediately trying to vote me while agreeing with me.


Mod: Thanks for the additional info. So we have a full roster, and, Zeek, we will have a chance of knowing if a sane cop was killed. Effectively, we have not lost any cops, because the retired cop is the replacement.


*Adds Zeek to the list*

Fark:

Consider this: We have 4 USABLE investigations, 4 unusable, AND 3 players who would be FORCED to fake claim an investigation.

Just forcing the mafia to fake claim will help out them.

[Skruffs]

OKay... let's just do it free for all, and then do random order with everyone who's nto claimed their target.

[Skruffs]

Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | ???
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???

Still needing to claim targets:

clammy
Korlash
queen_of_spades
TDC
Farkshinsoup
ZeekLTK
Raging Rabbit


...
Oh wow. Korlash, Zeek, and Raging Rabbit, all in one game.

[Skruffs]

fark:
Again, How useful is a dead, sane cop? And remember that there are three scum out there who can all claim guilty results, to construe mislynches, etc.

[Skruffs]

There's nothing wrong with voicing opinions or objections... Fark seems to have at least been reasonable in his deliberations.

Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | ???
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???
clammy -> Tekk | ???
Korlash -> Tekk | ???
TDC -> Zeek | ???
Raging Rabbit -> Fark | ???
ZeekLTK -> TDC | ???

Still needing to claim targets:

queen_of_spades
TDC
Farkshinsoup

THE last people to claim targets should be the first people to claim results. That's my opinion.

The mafia got a nightkill, which means they got to night talk. Smart mafia would have probably discusses how they would claim, both targets and results, and all that stuff. If they didn't, then this might wind up being a very quick game. I'm hoping they did, smart scum should be able to bluff their way to a close endgame.

[Skruffs]

Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | ???
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???
clammy -> Tekk | ???
Korlash -> Tekk | ???
TDC -> Zeek | ???
Raging Rabbit -> Fark | ???
ZeekLTK -> TDC | ???
Farkshinsoup -> Jenter | ???

Still needing to claim targets:
queen_of_spades

Sorry about that, fixed list. Yay simulpost!
Obviously the retired cop shouldn't claim that he's the cop, and should just claim Jenter's target as if it was his/her own, since he actually got a result and everything. The retired cop is unique in that he has teh strongest chance of clearing himself later on.

[Skruffs]

I'm pretty sure we'd be told. It doesn't technically matter; only the retired cop and the mafia are going to possibly claim retired cop, so, if one shows up town, lynch the other.

[Skruffs]

I've never played with anyone here, so I just picked my N0 investigation randomly. To be honest, his name just stuck out to me. Obviously no way to convince you of that, but there it is.

As it stands right now, I've only been able to narrow my sanity down to 2 of the 4 (one useful, one not).

3 of the 4, and 2 are useful.

The most useful role is Sane. Your results are direct and do not result ina mislynch.
The second most useful is Insane. Your results are indirect but after you are sure you are insane (usually after a mislynch) you can just reverse the alignment you get to clear or condemn someone.
The third most useful is naive, as in it's the least useless of the two broken cop roles. There are 8 'innocent' results, and 3 guilty results, for a sane cop. So being a naive cop is likely to draw fire from scum, especially if you are only targetting actual townsfolk.

The paranoid cop is the opposite, and is likely to think they are insane, for the same reasons, only in reverse.

Anyways... yeah. Fark, you could be an insane cop, and he could be scum.

[Skruffs]

I would say that unless scum is obviously caught in a trap, that it is better to maximize the amount of investigations we have tomorrow and NOT lynch today.

The reason why is because the more roles we have tomorrow, the more likely scum are to get trapped. We have no idea of knowing which cops are sane or insane or paranoid or naive based on one night's results, so lynching one of them could wind up being really bad for us. AS days go by we'll have more and more information and it will be harder and harder for scum to wiggle their way out of it.

[Skruffs]

oh yeah. My bad, keep forgetting that.

[Skruffs]

In terms of fake claims, yup.

[Skruffs]

Tek -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | Guilty
Aimless -> clammy | ???
drool -> Skruffs | ???
clammy -> Tekk | ???
Korlash -> Tekk | ???
TDC -> Zeek | ???
Raging Rabbit -> Fark | ???
ZeekLTK -> TDC | ???
Farkshinsoup -> Jenter | ???

Still needing to claim targets:
queen_of_spades

Okay. Well let's start with results, Queen seems to be stalling. We can lynch her later if she doesn't start catching up with things.

I got a Guilty on aimless.

To make things easy, why not just quote this claim sheet and fill in your own information.

[Skruffs]

Actually, does it make sense to lynch the player with the most results on them or the player with the least amount of results on them?
Tekk and Fark both have 2 results each on them, and there are quite a few players (me included) who have none. Since we can only find out our own alignments by comparing the results we get on players versus what other players get, does it make sense to maximize the number of results that can be compared versus the number of results on players total? by consolidating results on fewer players we increase the amount of mundanity.

[Skruffs]

Next person to claim:
Quote RR's and change Aimless's ???s to Guilty.
thanks!

[Skruffs]

weirdo false claim?
THat's 4 innocents and 3 guilties

[Skruffs]

I don't really think we should plan our moves, as cops, too publicly. Obviously do not target the same person twice.

Queen is a gret lynch today as she's A) not cooperating B) not posting at all and C) not targetted by any players so far.

Since there is no way to know which of us are sane, insane, naive, or paranoid, the results as posted today mean absolutely nothing. THey will be extremely useful as the game goes on however. If scum thinks that they know which is which, (And they have an advantage here because they know which results are 'right' vs 'wrong') they are still only 50% sure that the person that has an innocent on an innocent is Sane, versus Naive.

If, for example, I get NK'd tonight, it does not mean that Aimless should be lynched tomorrow. It might mean, though, that one of the other players who claimed a guilty on a player wanted me dead to 'take over my role' or something.

My top choice for suspicion is of course Farkinshop, after QoS. No offense Fark but your choice was very unlucky. Hopefully you will get an innocent on someone tonight.

[Skruffs]

Hmmm...

I'm not sure we should lynch QoS today, even if she isn't cooperating.

We can nail her tomorrow, if need be.

I rather think

it's better to start learning our sanities, even at the potential cost of lynching a townie

. Tekk or Fark is a better choice.

Fos: Aimless

The game is still about catching scum more than figuring out our sanities.

I have a habit of misinterpretting things, but it sounds to me like you are suggesting that Tekk and Fark are more likely townies than QoS and that we should lynch them anyways. If QoS turns out to be scum, I"M going to have to say you should be heavily questioned for this.

[Skruffs]

We choose the second scummiest player (after the one who gets lynched), and

everyone

investigates him tonight (excepct for those who already did last night, obviously).

Usually, I'm against ideas like this; the town directing the investigation is almost never a good idea. But, in this case, I think you may be on to something. At the very worst, (assuming our mass target is down) we will have narrowed everyone down to (paranoid/insane) and (naive/sane).

The only risk is that this potentially costs us an extra day; with three scum in the game that means we will open day 3 in LYLO.

Hrmmm... actually, that prospect worries me quite a bit.

Counter-proposal - this is a good idea, if we lynch scum today, and can afford to waste the day. If we hit town, we should try to spread the results out, the better to have more results on more players to work with.

Besides, it's easy to identify our useful cops.

This is absolutely a horrible idea. We have the capability of four investigative results a night that are worth considering. The more the results are spread out, the more likely, later on in the game, that the results will incriminate or clear a player. Also, mafia can kill that player, effectively eliminating the amount of results that can actually be used to lynch someone to 0.

All things being equal: You are trying to avoid lynching someone who has not claimed their target or results to try and lynch one of two people who have both supplied their results and targets and are positing valid arguments.

We can not do anything to determine who's results are good vs wrong vs broken until we have at least two results. Waiting one day might clear BOTH Tekk and Fark. It is better to lynch someone with no results on them because there is no loss of information AND she's likely sucm anyways.

[Skruffs]

Aimless:
You have pointed out that we can mislynch twice. Does this mean that you know QoS is town?

Fos

Zeek:
What if she is scum? Do you think scum are more or less likely to abandon a game where they have to fake claim their sanity, targets, and results IMMEDIATELY on day one?
I am glad that you pointed out that QoS hasn't been posting anywhere on the site. I just checked that myself. Hopefully she is going to be replaced soon, or start posting.

Also:

DO NOT TALK ABOUT ONGOING GAMES

. I can not respond to any of your comments because it would affect the outcome of that game, possibly, by revealing my thoughts about it. So

SHUT IT

.

You completely ignored the other game, and I can't even really remember what it is. If it's over, feel free to discuss my play here.

The other thing you are missing is that you did not look at my play in any games in which I am

Town

. If you had, you would see that this behavior is par for the course.

Of all the players, based on targets, the two most likely scum are Qos (for saying we should reveal targets WHILE people were doing so without revealing hers) and the person who targetted Jenter (because it's a known alignment that gives no information tot he town about that player). I am not saying that targetting jenter was scummy, just that it was a bad play.


I think it's amusing that Zeek started off his post by voting me for saying that we should vote for the least cooperative player, because that player has no results on them, when I myself had no targets.


Let me put it this way:

WE have to lynch every day.
As Aimless pointed out, with 8 town and 3 scum, we have 2 mistakes.
If we lynch someone today because they have investigations on them and NOT because they are acting scummy, we are removing all traces of scum hunting from the game. One slot is used up.

IF we then all target, say, me, tonight, and I get NK'd, then the only possible results we would have tomorrow would be people who got a different result on me, then on the person that they targetted n1. So the only chances we would have, tomorrow, of lynching correctly depends entirely on who people targetted, *last night*.

By not directing investigations, scum will not know who to kill, and will have to base their decision on who THEY think is the most likely a threat to them. This will include people who have targetted them, and people who are scum hunting, and if none of those situations apply, a WIFOM choice of someone they think is likely sane or insane.

I don't see why we need to confirm someone is sane, insane, paranoid, or naive, before the night happens. Lynching someone that the town has no information on eliminates the scum's chances of 'knowing' who to kill right off the bat. Let's save the confirmation of sanities until the morning.

Which means lynching someone with no information results in the greatest chance of lynching scum AND helping town.

Hope that was helpful!

[Skruffs]

Fos: Aimless

The game is still about catching scum more than figuring out our sanities.

Since figuring out our sanities enables us to catch scum, why not do both?

Who says I'm not trying to figure out our sanities?

Scum already know who's results are 'correct' and not, we don't. They just need to find out who's sane and who's not. We can only get confirmation of that with multiple investigations. Directing all four useful investigations into a dead end, even for on enight, is just horrible. IT is better to spread out investigations so that as sanities are revealed, a domino-effect of clearing and not cleaing, confirming and not confirming, happens.


I am always amused by people who say that someone is missing hte big picture as part of an attack which, basically, is missing the big picture.

[Skruffs]

If we lynch someone today because they have investigations on them and NOT because they are acting scummy, we are removing all traces of scum hunting from the game. One slot is used up.

Fark is both, though.

I'm afraid simply saying that doesn't mean anything to me. Explain how and why.

IF we then all target, say, me, tonight, and I get NK'd...

Assuming your'e town, you won't get NK'd unless the mafia's extemely stupid and decides to save us a misslynch. You keep ignoring that.

So you want to lynch a townie today, direct all the cop investigations tonight, and then lynch me tomorrow? Wow.

By the next day, at least 3, and possibly four (depending on who gets lynched today) cops would be eliminated from the game, and, unless by chance one of the two lynched players ARE scum, nobody's sanities will be confirmed.

Right?
Yes, that's a great plan.

IT is better to spread out investigations so that as sanities are revealed, a domino-effect of clearing and not cleaing, confirming and not confirming, happens.

Sanities

won't

be revaled in this method, though, since not enough people will know whether their investigation was true or false, and all the cross information in the world isn't gonna help any when hardly anyone knows if their results even mean anything.

That's interesting. Because I sort of thought that if I targetted aimless last night, and got a guilty, and then investigated, say, YOU, tonight, and got an innocent, that would 'help' me if, say, you or aimless was nightkilled tonight or lynched tomorrow.

I mean I could be wrong. I can definitely understand why you would want to, say, consolidate all investigations onto one player, to completely minimize the chance of a sane or insane cop hitting scum, though.


Korlash, Perhaps I meant "Unlucky", not "bad", but the results are the same: Unfortunate.
I completely agree with you though about 'cleared' players being scum isclaiming.

RagingRabbit

: Let's say that no scum were investigated last night, ONLY townies were. IF I am also a townie, and every player investigates me, and then lynches me tomorrow, how much closer are we to determining sanities are we?

TDC

: Interesting point made about 4+ similar results equals scum. That is about the ONLY valid point behind everyone investigating a single player, but unless it happens on multiple occasions (which we don't have the time to do) it can't be used to decicively determine if someone is town or scum. Also, we get less investigations each night : By tomorrow there will be 9 investigations able to be revealed or fake claimed. NArrowing scum down to 1 in 5 doesn't help much when there are 3 scum.

Aimless:
Unfnortunately though it ties up all investigations tonight, and the lynch tomorrow, and any information that is gained by cops could be extinguished, since the mafia will know who got 'sane' or 'insane' results on that player, and can NK them before they made a third player. Also, it completely depends on all 4 real cops having targetted both scum and townie.

[Skruffs]

I believe that the most useful action today is to lynch QoS or the scummiest acting player (Right now, to me, it"s RR but RR is always belligerently inflammatory), and to spread out investigations secretly between all the players involved. If cops want to target the players that already have several investigations on them, they can, and if they want to target a non-investigated player, to spread the net, so to speak, they can.

I think wasting two lynches for no other reason then to *hopefully* confirm one or two sane and insane cops, who will be NK'd the next night anyways, is a complete and terrible disaster waiting to happen.

RagingRabbit, do you remember Exile Mafia? Remember how I had a keen grasp on how the game mechanics worked, and called out one of the scum day one because of the way they were trying to manipulate the town into allowing the scum to decide who would get nominated each night?

Let me put it to you this way:
If mafia doesn't know what plans to mess up, they'll have to devise their own.

[Skruffs]

The point of this is that if

everyone

has investigated someone of known alignment, then we can distinguish between the sane and the insane. This is important, because it helps prevents mislynches later.

While this may be true, it is also true if all the player investigate other players. If all the players are investigated, then it is far mroe likely that a wider number of scum will be caught, and scum will be forced to kill players that useful player may have already investigated, which then forces scsum to reveal information to the town. Simply knowing who is sane vs insane does not really help, unless those sane and insane players are actually targetting other players, which you and RR's plan completely eliminated for 1/3 of our initial time slot.

However, it does not

yet

distinguish between the useful and useless cops. The only way to distinguish between useful and useless is a useful cop will get different results for scum and town. Thus, the mass investigation doesn't help scum, because it doesn't tell them who is useful.

You say this, and yet you want all fo the cops, to target one player, reducing the number of possibly useful investigations down to... 1, lynching that player anyways, reducing them to 0, and then (repeat cycle)

However, when any given cop later determines his usefulness, we are ahead, because that cop then immediately knows his sanity, and thus which of the players he investigated is indeed scum. In this instance, the town discovers the useful cop at exactly the same moment as the scum do, and at the same time discover a scum. 1-1 trades are good for the town.

The thing is, when *exactly* do those given cops have their usefullness determined? My plan would potentially have a guilty result in the air by the beginning of day 2. Your plan doesn't become 'effective' until the beginning of day three, which would also be lylo.

You are also either ignoring or intentionally leaving out the chance that sucm will fake claim. Would you rather have a cop claiming an innocent and a guilty on two players day 2, or a cop claiming to have an innocent and a guilty on two players, day 3, when we are lylo?

Of course, I'm pretty sure that you know all of this already, and are only arguing against it in an attempt to confuse the town.

I'm not sure what the point of this is. You are trying to lead the town into making themselves useless until the scum can kill the useful ones off, and I'm the one being misleading.

Sure.

[Skruffs]

I had a feeling I was likely paranoid.

Okay so me and QoS are either paranoid, insane, or scum fake claiming. I think it's unusual that QoS targetted the same person and got the same result as me. It makes me think that she's copycatting me so that she can bump me off and 'take over' my role before I can be confirmed, but, whatever. Welcome back queen.

Lynching RR would definitely allow common sense to prevail. He contradicts himself to the point that you want to rip your hair out, but I'm willing to deal with it until we actually have proof he's scum, because he acts that way as town.

Aimless is, bar none, the NK target tonight. He's the only confirmed player in hte game, so mafia need to kill him (and hopefeully he replaced a useless role) to keep their odds high. If everyone targets him tonight, the entire point will be to see what kind of result they get on a Townie.

I already know what kind of result I get on a townie, so I am going to investigate SCUM tonight. Probably RR.


I just want to note that now, RR wants us to not only remove all useful investigations (IE investigations on scum), but also to NOT TELL what the investigations are until day three, when we've lost two ADDITIONAL players (and their investigations), which only helps mafia fake claim more.

The most investigations we have on the most people, the more scum has to scramble to claim something that fits.


Since Aimless is dead tonight, we might want to lynch Clammy to narrow down HIS sanity to one or two possibilities. If he was a sane cop, clammy may very well be scum.

[Skruffs]

IU'm not calling you stupid, RR, drop the persecution complex. IT gets you in trouble in EVERY GAME you are in. You intentionally aggravate people and then claim that they are attacking when they snap.

What id hte Day 2 cop reveals himself to be sane? will he be lynched regardless anyways to confirm other players?

Focussing hte game on confirming sanities and not about h unting scum is going to be useless when everyone knows their sanities and are outnumbered by scum.

You say "Attack", I say "Logically Refute". I would much rather have all four sane/insane cops targetting different players and CATCH SCUM then to waste two lynches and an entire nights' worth of iinvestigations on 2 players.

I don't know, call me stupid if you want. It just makes sense to me.

I'm not trying to make you look bad.

You suggested that Fark was unreasonable for suggesting a mass claim, though that mass claim revealed information that the town needs.

You accused Fark of using a "Poor Mistreated Townie" tone, which is inflammatory and does nothing but attempt to undermine his character. Not necessary in a mafia game.

You accused me of usin circular reasoning that you weren't going to respond to rather than pointing out the flaws in my idea, as a defense of your own plan, which is wasteful. (YOU aren't wasteful, just your PLAN is. I'm not attacking YOU.)

When I asked: "So you want to lynch a townie today, direct all the cop investigations tonight, and then lynch me tomorrow? Wow." You accused me of using a loaded question (Thought hat is exactly what you want to do), which suggests to me that you know that your idea is a flawed one and rather than accept that, you attack the people who point out the flaws.


Your response to my plan was:

Going with Skruffs' idea of lynching those who've been investigated the least is likely to get us into day 3 with tons of useless info, since hardly anyone will know whether their results are true of false. We'll have no way of figuring out the false scum claims. The chaos and confusion that'll create are only good for the mafia.

"

But in truth, the exact opposite is possible. Mafia will be forced to fake claim targets and results to match their (I'm guessing predetermined) "Sanities". The plethora of information will be H ARDER for them to wiggle through to claim their results, unlike your result, where their results will match at least one and possibly two other players which will maximize their own strategy while reducing towns capability of catching them.

You are assuming that the town has no sense of logic and would not be able to piece together through the myriad of claims, who is what and how with who.

SImply using propaganda and fearmongering as an attack on someone else's plan doesn't work. My plan maximizes the amount of work Mafia will have to do to win, yours minimizes it. Case closed.


Let me posit it this way: Your initially were completely opposed to the idea of a mas claim, but then, AFTER THINKING abou it, you came around and was a strong advocate of it. I feel that if you strongly think of the long term applications of my approach versus the alternative, you will find that a wide net will catch more fish.

[Skruffs]

MyY apologies, I based the assumption that you were against the mass claim on this:

Here I am not arguing the point about whether we should have mass claimed. I'm arguing that it is not unreasonable or scummy for me to have suggested it.

And I'm arguing that it

is

unreasonable.

I might have taken that post out of context, because I was reading through your posts to see how you were being inciteful (not insightful), and that gave me the impressoin that Fark was saying "It's not scummy for me to have suggested a massclaim" and you were saying "Yes it was."

I Realize the opposite was actually the case, now, but that post suggests things the way I interpretted them.

[Skruffs]

Ok back to business. Skruffs arguing intently with someone... never seen that before... >.>

Are you serious? Have you missed the other games we were in? Like Food Fight?

[Skruffs]

So how can you hunt scum if you don't know your sanity? And it won't take that long to narrow down sanities if we are smart about it and follow a good plan (which you are trying to prevent us from doing).

Believe it or not, scum hvae been caught without the use of cops before.

Crazy, I know, but it relies on something OUTSIDE of mod given information, called "Logical deductin" and "Character analysis". For example, when someone insists that town is incapable of hunting scum without the use of cops, that is usually a reason to AVOID scum hunting and to convince other players from doing it to.

And to counter your question: How are YOU going to know if the person at LYLO in Rabbit's game is Sane or not when they claim to be sane?

You say "Attack", I say "Logically Refute". I would much rather have all four sane/insane cops targetting different players and CATCH SCUM then to waste two lynches and an entire nights' worth of iinvestigations on 2 players.

*You* would much rather have all four useful cops target different players... so that the odds of them actually determining their sanity is low.

Since the only way to see if you got a correct result is if the person you targeted gets killed, of course it would be nice for scum to have the cops investigate all over the place, that way the chances of the person they investigated actually being killed (especially if it's scum, because they won't be night killed) is very low, and therefore the chances of figuring out their usefulness/sanity is also very low with this 'plan' of yours.

If four sane/insane cops target four people night one, and four different people night two, that is 8 people out of 8 or 9, investigated. Wow. Everyone is investigated.

Comparatively, if four sane/insane cops investigate four different people night 1, and 1 person night two, and then l ynch that person to ensure they know their sanity, the town has lost one lynch, and 4 potentially successful investigations. You are going the "Easy Route" by saying that it is better to "Confirm sanities", and that confirming sanities should be more of our imperative than to, say, try to catch scum.

I know that I am either insane, or paranoid. If I target scum, tonight, and am insane, I will have have a useable result, tomorrow.

The same goes for QoS.

Fark, who targetted Jenter last night, is either insane, or paranoid. If HE targets scum tonight, he will have a result.

If everyone else wants to focus solely on Aimiless tonight to be sure that they have an INNOCENT investigation under their belt, that's fine, but it seems to me that it would be a lot more efficient to investigate playeres that AREN'T going to be nightkilled.

No, actually it's the opposite. If everyone claims their results, wouldn't the scum be able to figure out sanities easier than us? Especially if you got your way and we all investigated random people tonight?

So you think everyone should all target a known innocent person, so that we all privately know our own sanities, then no claim their results?
You have to compromise

I mean, let's say I'm a useful cop and I investigate a random player tonight. Let's say I get a guilty and I say it in the thread.

Then, I have an innocent on TDC and a guilty on [whoever] and I have no idea which of them is scum - but the scum know which of them is scum. So, unless we lynch one of my two targets tomorrow (and that's unlikely, since there will probably be at least another player in the same situation, if not more), then I won't know if I'm sane/insane, but the scum will. Then, the scum will kill me and be able to pretend they are my sanity, because no one else knows it except them.

And if that happens twice, it's still TWO out of the THREE scum caught. And yes, if someone claims to have two results tomorrow, THEN someone should be lynched; there's a 50% chance of them being scum, and if they aren't, the other person immediately becomes scum and is lynched the next day. But I can totally understand how you might think NOT claiming the result and risk getting Nightkilled the next night, rather than giving town the information it needs to lynch scum, would be preferable. It keeps scum from having to make up safe claims until three or more players are dead, so that they all have 'replacements' anyways.

[Skruffs]

QoS, Fark, and myself have to decide who we are going to investigate, or claim to have investigated, during the night.

Lynching clammy would result in Jenter/Aimless as 1 out of 2 possible sanities, but since she is dead tonight anyways, there is no possible way to reduce that possibility any further.

Having a potential of EIGHT investigations to work with tomorrow, as compared to Four, seems like a good idea to me. Forcing scum to fake claim on OTHER players rather than continuing their already-in use fake claim against their n1 players will provide a HELL of a lot more information. Lining ourselves up, in a row, by all wasting one PRECIOUS night's worth of investigations on a known townie who will be dead in the morning (as the only confirmed player, there's no reason for scum not to kill Aimless over anyone else at this point) seems wasteful.


Investigating the same person gives scum one extra day of not having any significantly useable claims... unless a sane or insane cop targetted scum night 1.

Tekk -> Fark | Innocent
Skruffs -> Aimless | Guilty
Aimless -> clammy | Guilty
drool -> Skruffs | Innocent
clammy -> Tekk | Guilty
Korlash -> Tekk | Innocent
TDC -> Zeek | Innocent
Raging Rabbit -> Fark | Innocent
ZeekLTK -> TDC | Innocent
Farkshinsoup -> Jenter | Guilty
queen_of_spades -> Aimless | Guilty

Six innocents, Five guilties.
2 of each are "Standard", from the naive and paranoid cops.
So 4 innocents and 3 guilties, in some order, are the sane and insane cops mixed with the three scum claims.
I am not going to say this for a fact, but it is a fairly safe assumption to think that the scum did not all fake claim the same result...RR and QoS both were hte second people to claimidentical results on the same person, so if me or Tekk dies, obviously RR and QoS could be seen as more likely mafia, who claimed the same results so as to be able to take over that person's role... Just theorizing here.

My scumlist for now is Zeek and RR up top, for being so belligerant and trying to heavy-hand town into agreeing with them even though their plan, to

A) Use up all player investigations on a confirmed townie on one night "So as to confirm sanities"
B) Not reveal results from night 2 until day 3 "So as to not give information to the scum"

Results in town being down TWO nightkilled cops, and an uninformed lynch day two because a player who might know that he is sane or insane (or even more precisely, his exact sanity) would not be revealing information so as to 'not give information' to the scum.


They keep pushing that we can't give information to the scum, but unfortunately, in a game about cops with varying sanities, what we want to do is give EVERYONE as MUCH information as possible.

Every claimed investigation can lead to a successful lynch, wether the person claiming that investigation is Town or Scum.

Forcing players to claim multiple reesults on different players results in scum beign forced to explain why they targetted who they targetted, and to fake claim results on that player.

In the original dethy game, there was 4 town, and 1 scum. The percentage is higher in this game, with 8 town and 3 scum going into day one. Town could "No Lynch" to minimize mislynches and maximize the amount of information begin given out in order to confirm each other's sanities and catch scum., In this game, scum have potentially TWO kills between rounds of investigations: their unstoppable nightkills, and the day's lynch.

On Day one, the best plan, since we have to lynch someone, is to lynch someone who is the most likely to be scum. Investigations, even multiple investigations on the same player, MEAN NOTHING at this point. Trying to say they do is assuming that one person's investigation is more likely to be accurate than another's, which is at this point, 50/50. Also include the faked investigations by scum in the mix, and there is no reason to say that Tekk, Fark, or Aimless should be lynched today. If I had tried to push an Aimless lynch right after QoS revealed that she had targetted aimless, I'd be biting my own tongue right now because Aimless wound up being the retired cop.

So, for TODAY, ignore the amount of results on a player. Those results will be important TOMORROW.

Look instead at who's acting scummy. Who's trying to prevent town from h aving as informed a lynch as possible. Who is trying to misdirect town into using their investigations to 'confirm themselves', rather than using them to search for scum. Who is using emotion, rather than logic, as the basis for their arguments. Etc, Etc, Etc.

Fark: You know that you have investigated a townie already. You are not going to target Aimless tonight, are you?

[Skruffs]

I haven't been around much to post. I need to catch up but in the meanwhile if people have questions they are more than welcome to reask them to make sure I see them.

I wish RR was already lynched.

[Skruffs]

TDC: You are ignoring any/all positive contributions that have been made by those players as well.

[Skruffs]

I disagree with the unknown sanity being useless part, because I think that I can tell between RR and TDC (or someone else) who is the scum. RR. Of course this will never apply to me, so I won't argue it further.

Maybe you can. Maybe, you'll even be right. And maybe you're scum taking advantage of a scummy-looking townie to trick us. I know which guess I'd pick.

So wait - you agree that RR is acting scummy? Why are you into following his plan, then?

[Skruffs]

Aimless, my bad. I thought you were in agreeance with RR that everyone should target the same person and then lynch tehm, whcih I am against. Instead, you agree with me. I was one of the first people to claim my results and helped organize a situational claiming,a nd yet I'm the most scummiest? Even though you agree with me?

You aren't making sense. You are lucky that you are the claimed retired cop because you are really setting off my scumdar.

This is why we should all independantly investigate:

SCum can not prevent the sane and insane cops from investigating them if every cop decides independantly who they want to target.
EVeryone targetting the same player results in a lost night of investigations, and a lost lynch as we 'confirm' those investigations. The amount of time spent confirming, HOPEFULLY, one or two of the players that CAN be confirmed as sane or insane, results in teh mafia getting two kills, putting the rest of us at LYLO. At that point, all one scum has to do is pretend to be confirmed and get a guilty on another player, and it's game over.

By independantly investigating, we have scum forced to explain why they targetted who they did. Scum are forced to play for themselves rather than together, as they are have ALL Act like cops and that means scum hunting. They have to claim results POSSIBLY without knowing who the person they are planning to impersonate AND on players that are still alive, forcing the players, if they are accurately claiming a sane or insane cop, to clear players that are still alive in their gambit to win the town's trust.

Confirming one or two players VS four possibly useful investigations tonight.

Let's think abou tthat. 5 Players investigated vs 8 players investigated. Hmmmmm.

Aimless:

- Your order of claiming tomorrow is based entirely on your own suspicions, yes? So all scum have to do to benefit is to buddy up to you and win your confidence. You should put some sort of pattern into it to make it less likely to be alterable by players. Alphabetically, the reversal of who claimed today, from top to bottom of the player list, etc.

[Skruffs]

By the way, I think Aimless should decide on a full claim order for tomorrow.

This works for me. I was planning on posting a final list of my suspicions and reasoning before the deadline anyway; I can come up with an order then as well.

For example, TDC told you to make the claim list, and coincidentally, he's at the bottom of your order to claim. You being a confirmed townie does NOT Make you more likely to be right about who is scum and who isn't. I am more than happy to claim tomorrow, FIRST, just like I was today, but I Think the rest of the order should not be based on your own hunches unless you feel you are sure enough in your hunches about the game to be responsible fi you wind up putting scum last. You know how gullible you are, I don't, so it's up to you, I would suggest using dice or random.org though. But to show I'm not trying to manipulate you, sure, feel free to put me up first.

[Skruffs]

charter's post is right up there with Skruffs' in terms of trying to derail the town and put us in the wrong direction...

"I don't want us to investigate Aimless" - lol

Because arguing against investigating a confirmed townie versus trying to investigate scum is trying to derail the town. You're getting cocky, zeek.

[Skruffs]

What happens if you investigate someone you think is town on Night 1 and then investigate Aimless? You *might* get a different result, and then all of a sudden the person you thought was town is suddenly a caught scum.

This is assuming that you assumed you were sane or naive the first night and caught scum. What if you targetted two people you thought were scum on two nights versus one person you thought was scum and one person you knew to be town? Instead of having TWO nights of investigations, you only have ONE, and that investigation is only narrowed down to 50%, just like before. The whole point of simul-vestigating Aimless is on the off-chance that you did catch scum n0 with a random choice. It eliminates the chance of actually using scum hunting from the interactions on day 1 to find a DIFFERENT results night 2: After all, there's only a 3/11 chance that any of the cops who CAN get a useable results TARGETTED scum. However, if everyone uses their scum hunting to make a second choice, Night 2, they double their chances of catching scum. Everyone targetting Aimless removes that doubling chance until night 3.


Also, with the way you and RR have been pushing the simultaneous investigations of a confirmed town player to "confirm sanities", it makes me think that maybe either NONE of the scum have been investigated or that only one of them has. With 6 'duplicate' investigations, that means that potentially only 6/11 players have been investigated. Not saying that is a sure thing but it definitely makes me think that scum might feel they have caught a break by not being investigated at all.

And it is a big help, because then you KNOW that the person you previously investigated IS the same alignment as Aimless AND when you investigate someone scummy on the next night you will KNOW they are scum if you get a different result.

So two players might both "know" that Fark (for example) is town. Wow! So, by your own words, targetting aimless might just 'confirm' that the person you targetted n1 IS scum, or it might confirm nothing but you can always investigate someone DIFFERENT n3 and THAT will tell you everything! Except you are wrong.

I believe that possibly one or two players may have investigated scum, and that maybe one of them is a sane or insane cop. Targetting aimless tonight might confirm them, but so would targetting any OTHER Townie.

Instead, let's say you investigate someone you *think* is scummy and get a different result. You don't *know* if the person you investigated is scum, or if the person from the first night is. That's not much of a help - and it could cost the town the game - especially if you're *wrong*.

If you have two different results, and you POST Them, then eVERYONE knows that ONE Of those players is town and ONE of htem is SCUM. How do you mean "That's not much of a healp if you're WRONG"?!

It's like you are saying, "Look guys, all of these potential investigations are misleading and scary... let's lynch based on the idea of confirming as many people as we can, okay? But let's avoid actually investigating anyone, because none of you have the capability of SCUM HUNTING on your own..."

The name of the game STILL Comes down to SCUM HUNTING, NOT reliance on investigational roles. That's why there are just as many broken roles as there are useful ones; to avoid players from relying singlemindedly on what their results are.

If I get a different result tonight than I did n1, or if charter or fark of zeek or RR do, they should REPORT THAT. Because if everyone targets different people tonight then they targetted the night before, that means there will be 8 (+ 3) results + 6/7 (+2/3) results tomorrow, on DIFFERENT PEOPLE, and that means OVERLAPPING from one night to the next, VERSUS your idea which has the same number of people targetted as there were today.

[Skruffs]

AND - this whole "let's claim in order"

combine that with "let's not investigate Aimless" and that means the scum will pretty much be able to figure out everyone's sanities on Day 2 while hardly anyone in the town will be able to figure out their own.

Yeah, great way to come into the game buddy. Could you be any MORE anti-town?

Can you explain how?
If someone claims two guilties, one on someone the scum know to be town and on Aimless, does that make them insane or paranoid?

Same with two innocents, one on an already confirmed player and on one other.

The only way that the scum will know if someone is naive versus sane is if they targetted scum n1,a nd then aimless. Are you saying that you want to avoid giving the scum the information to know that someone is naive versus sane, paranoid vs insane, which means no results should be revealed? Or are you saying that only scum will understand who the sane and insane cops are because they'll have different results day two, which is inherently more likely to happen if they target two players that are not confirmed town versus only one that is? If every sane and insane cop gets ONE town and one scum and then get NK'd, but revealed their information, the scum is still screwed.

[Skruffs]

The amount of time spent confirming, HOPEFULLY, one or two of the players that CAN be confirmed as sane or insane, results in teh mafia getting two kills, putting the rest of us at LYLO. At that point, all one scum has to do is pretend to be confirmed and get a guilty on another player, and it's game over.

Skruffs, again and again you keep pretending like my plan would cause us to misslynch twice and end up at LYLO, which as I explained numerous times is untrue. You're so caught up in your own arguments you haven't yet stopped to consider any of the counter-arguments or look at the facts, and are just repeating yourself endlessly in slightly different phrasings. I find it ironic you attacked me earlier for trying to scare the town, since this is exactly what you've been doing for a very long time now.

Okay, meaningless appeals to emotion aside, you are insinuating that players should not use their investigative roles to catch scum, and that the lynches should be based solely on the idea that the investigative roles already HAVE caught scum. You are saying that I am trying to "Scare the town".

BOOGEDY BOOGEDY BOOGEDY TOWN!!!

YES IT IS ME!!! I AM TRYING TO SCARE YOU! WITH THE IDEA OF THINKING FOR YOURSELVES!!!!

Fortunately you have Raging Rabbit and ZeekTLK, your "Shepherds" , to GUIDE y ou through this Horrible, HORRIBLE situation! You don't have to worry about finding scum! You don't have to worry about even who to investigate! Zeek and Raging RAbbit will make sure that NONE of you have to make ANY decisions for YOURSELVES, because they already have who you should vote for and investigate mapped out for the next two days!

Are you afraid of investigating scuma nd having to figure out your sanity,

ON YOUR OWN???

Don't cry little ones!! We can all target a confirmed townie, Aimless! Aimless won't hurt you, not like those SCARY MAFIAS will!


Little BobbySue: "My mommy told me that I choose to investigate someone OTHER than Aimless, that the BOOGEYMAN will come and give me a HYSTERECTOMY!"

Little Jimmy: "My cousin Joe thought that this ONE guy was scum, so HE investigated him, and he had TWO results and one was different than the other!!! HE couldn't figure out which one was right so he wound up shooting himself IN THE HEAD. I hope *I* never have to confirm my sanity independantly!"

Don't worry kids, you won't! Why, maybe if Raging Rabbit gets his way, we can ALL target Aimless tonight, and then we'll NEVER REVEAL OUR RESULTS to ANYONE. You won't even have to check your inbox to see what your result was, because Raging RAbbit thinks that would be BAD FOR THE TOWN. Information is DANGEROUS!!!

RagingRabbit

:
All scum have to do is play along with your orchestrated results, while picking off any players that they think is likely to sane or insane, and then at lynch or lose claim a guilty on an innocent player that they 'know' to be naive or paranoid. You want to CONFIRM Sanities and THEN have those 'confirmed' players try to hunt scum, which is the exact opposite of efficiency and usefullness. Confirmed cops are going to be HUGE targets. We want the cops to have a good investigation BEFORE they are confirmed. We want EVERYONE to be investigated at least once to widen the possibility that the useful cops will catch scum. IT is not "Scary" to look at what happens in this game ONE DAY past your 'plan' ends and see that the town will be crippled by attempting to confirm sanities before harvesting investigations.

[Skruffs]

RagingRabbit:
You are voting me because I pointed out that your plan is only potentially useful starting night 3.

You are trying to minimize town's usefullness.

Your inability to coherently rebut the weaknesses that I Am pointing out about your plan has led you to resort to plain and simple vote-attacks. Unfortuantely, just voting me does not make your plan any better than it was when you first insisted it.

LIning up like ducks and investigating the same person minimizes information that town can use to figure out who is scum. Figuring out our sanities is less of a priority than figuring out who scum is. While we can use investigations to confirm ourselves, we should be using them to catch scum.


Ensuring that every player is investigated multiple times by different players means that no matter WHO the scum kill (Adn don't kill) they will be revealing more information to the rest of hte town. As it stands, for example, I might be a paranoid cop and I might be an insane cop. If scum NK me tonight, nobody else will have any information on me so there would be no other players being able to say "Ahh, he was town and I had an innocnet on him!" One player has an investigations on Jenter (who is dead) already - that means if he gets a different result on any player, he has proof.

I understand that you want to confirm sanities, however, your way is only partially effective in doing so and it results in potentially lost lynches and extra nightkills. If a player wants to target Aimless and get a "confirmed townie" result, that's fine, but I would think that for now, every player should lightly assume that they have already targetted an innocent player, and should instead try to target SCUM.


A cop without a confirmed result is NOT useless. They are a pro-town role with the ability of deduction, and they can use their scum hunting abilities to try and find scum OUTSIDE of investigative results.


There is not a "close to 0%" chance of having a confirmed cop tomorrow; Assuming we mislynch today there will be 7 cops left, and there will be 6 tomorrow. 8 cops * {(3/11)(chance of success night one) + 6Cops* (3/8)(chance of success night 2(subtracting former investigation)} = 4.4% chance.

Your plan is:
8 cops*(3/11)= 2.1%

My plan is TWICE as likely to net a guilty on scum as yours is.

You are attacking me of being manipulative. It's funny how logic can manipulate people into reasoning, which makes appeals to emotions less effective.

THe numbers might be slightly fudged up; if so, I apologize, I am not a statistician, and encourage anyone to posit numbers of their own.

I will make a visual graph explaining how investigating other players results in making an investigative 'net' that becomes harder for scum to squiggle through with each passing day. I think that generally speaking, directing the cop is a bad idea, and I Think that, generally speaking, giving the scum the information of who ALL The cops are investigating leads to them having easier, more passable claims int he morning, which my plan helps hinder.

Okay time for work, please not that I did not OMGUS vote RR, which is what I think he was trying to bait me into doing. He's very good at baiting, be careful of that.

[Skruffs]

I'm here, nothing new to say really. I still think everyone without a confirmed result should investigate Aimless, and that today's lynch should be either Skruffs or Fark. Skruffs has been uber manipulative and is the scummiest player, while Fark acted scummy earlier in the game and his lynch gains us sanity info. The fact that my vote is currently on Skruffs shows which option I prefer, I believe.

"Uber manipulative" again? You're repeating yourself.

It's also extra convenient for you to get someone lynched who's already targetted the confirmed townie - reduces the chances that someone else will investigate you, right?

[Skruffs]

Do I have to spell it out?

These are two scenarios... Player X is scum, Player A, Player B, and Aimless are town.

Scenario 1:

Player X says he investigated Player A on Night 0 and got a guilty
Player X says he investigated Player B on Night 1 and got an innocent

HOW DO WE KNOW WHICH OF THE THREE IS SCUM? Is it Player A, Player B, or Player X? If we lynch Player A then Player X will say "oh, I must be insane, Player B is the real scum"... and then if we lynch Player B we will have lost two townies trying to figure out that Player X is the real scum.

*this is your plan*

Scenario 2:

Player X says he investigated Player A on Night 0 and got a guilty
Player X says he investigated Aimless on Night 1 and got an innocent

In this one, if we lynch Player A, then we KNOW Player X is scum... It's really easy.

*this is my plan*

So....

So.... as long as a sane or insane person investigated scum n0, we will have a viable lynch tomorrow. I am not disputing that.

There could be up to 4 possible incriminating results tomorrow! But it is far more likely there will be 0 results that are usable than with mine.

But your rundown of my scenario is assuming that there is only one cop who is doing any investigations.

Let's say that, say, there are 10 alive tonight.
A,B,C (scum), D,E, (naive), F, G (paranoid), H (sane), I, J (insane)
This is worst case; we lynch a sane cop today.

USing random.0rg,
I got Mafia killing E (I'm not going to incorporate possible sanities into this; it's an example for numbers only)
D -> E
E -> A
F ->E
G - > D
H -> D
I -> A
J -> A
That's odd, I've never seen so much repetition from random.org, but it doesn't matter since I can't verify I used it anyways. I'll run with this and do another one later.

Okay so we got I and J both with "innocents" on guilty players - if they targetted an innocent person n0 (likely) than they have confirmable results; one of those two results are dead. If they targetted B or C night 0, they might think they are naive, sane, or insane.

F targetted E who is revealed to be town; he has his confirmed "What happens if I target innocents' result; and it doesn't really matter who he targetted before because he iwll definitely have the same result.

H targetted a sane person - if he targetted A, B, or C, he also has results, but he won't know (yet) which of his results are reliable. However, this is where logic comes in.

If, say, H targetted A n0 and D n1, and I targetted any townie n0 and A n2, they know that there are two sets of informations:
One of A and D is scum, one is town, and one of A and I's other target is scum, one is town. Lynching D clears TWO PLAYERS completely, and if both of them are still alive, that's four players that are reasonably cleared barring scum clever-claiming to mess up results.


And basically, Zeek, the biggest problem is that after you get everyone to target the same person tonight, you are going to have to do it my way tomorrow night anyways; unless you plan on directing all of the investigations EVERY NIGHT for the rest of the game, eventually cops are going to have to make their own decisions.

[Skruffs]

Z
Lynching someone whose been investigated twice gives two people a confirmed result, and frees them to investigate the player they find scummiest tonight.

I think it's funny that you want to lynch one of the three people who already have a 'confirmed' result, though.

[Skruffs]

Knowing your sainity and using it to CATCH SCUM is better, though. You can never be quite sure about results your way until one of your targets dies, which is almost the same as investigating Aimless to confirm sanity only it happens later.

I agree that knowing your sanity helps. That's not in question. However, you are basing your plan solely on the idea that a sane or insane cop investigated scum night zero; my plan results in possible catches (aided through the possibility of chain results and the scum's nightkills) from two nights of tryng to catch scum. Statistically, my plan results in a domino-like chain of effects where cops clear each other and townies starting as early as tomorrow; and yours doesn't.

barring scum clever-claiming to mess up results.

That's one huge bar you've got there. What do you think, that scum's just gonna sit there and do nothing? Of course they'll "clever claim", so until we know our own sanity cross invetigations aren't much help since we're never sure the other guy's town.

I guess the scum won't do any fake claiming in your plan, then, right? Not that it wouldn't be remarkably easy for them to do so; if they kill someone with a claimed innocent today they just have to have of them claim an innocent tomorrow, and voila! Their results can not be examined with actual scum hunting tactics like : why did they choose that person? (cuz it was prordained by you).

Notice that this is the very first time Skruffs actually logically compares the two plans, and doesn't magically turn his into "catching scum in a net of lies" and the other into "OMG LYLO!!", and his logic here sucks.

And yet all you can do to refute my ideas is to say I am a master manipulator. Then my logic sucks. How does it suck? How does any weakness you attribute to the idea I am pushing not also apply much, much worse to yours? You can't answer that so you use ad hom attacks of me, instead of the plan.

Fine.

vote : ragingrabbit

And basically, Zeek, the biggest problem is that after you get everyone to target the same person tonight, you are going to have to do it my way tomorrow night anyways; unless you plan on directing all of the investigations EVERY NIGHT for the rest of the game, eventually cops are going to have to make their own decisions.

No one ever said anything about directing investigations on any other night, which I'm sure you know full well.

But unless all of the cops targetted scum last night, most of them will be in the same situation tomorrow as they are toda); you want to waste one night on a confirmed townie while pushing the day's lynch on someone you say is scum but that isn't investigated- you won't outright say it but your own beliefs are that nobody has caught scum, yet. Otherwise you would be pushing a lynch on the player with the most claimed investigations, and not just on someone who is getting in the way of your plan to keep the town busy while you pick them off.

I think it's funny that you want to lynch one of the three people who already have a 'confirmed' result, though.

Our plan isn't infallible, no plan is, and I believe we shouldn't lynch Tekk just for being the best "sanity" lynch, since the benefits of this are outweighed by the benefits of lynching someone scummier - the slight gain of sanity infomation isn't worth sacrificing a portion of our chances to lynch correctly.

*yawn*

Interesting.

(Also, which three people? I only want to lynch two, and you much more than Fark right now.)

Two people claim results on aimless (confirmed townie), and one on jenter (confirmed townie).
If you were scum hunting, and looking at more in the game than in ways to manipulate people into agreeing with a plan you obviously either haven't thought through or that you know is anti-town, maybe you should do that? Because if I shut up you won't have someone to focus every single post into saying they are stupid, scummy, etc, in that hypocritical trollish way you have of doing. That was the main reason I waited so long in voting you; I know that as town you tend to be abrasive and loud mouthed but that as soon as you get flack on it you get hyper defensive; which is how you are playing in this game. However, you do not generally intentionally troll one person through an entire day; and you have (in the past) at least entertained differing opinions, and even sometimes changed your mind. This time, though, you are dead set entirely on being wrong; and I think you are cashing in on your already-ascertained reputation of being brash and belligerent as an excuse to not 'see the light', because both scum and town know that directing 7 or 8 independant to a single source is not helpful to the town, not when we need to lynch every day and have no way to prevent nightkills. We need to cover as many bases as possible, scum hunt while we can and hope that the real cops get good investigations. Your plan minimizes all of those things,and your intentional ignorance of that coupled with responses that are the equivalent of "skruffs sucks kill him" have convinced me that you are, in fact, scum.

Good day!

[Skruffs]

Also: those wanting to say that because me and qos investigated aimless and got the samd results, that that is a reason, look at the facts:

I claimed early
I never insinuated my result should lead to aimless being lynched
QOS was the very last person to claim

Most importanly; charter has been following me, not the other way around, not only in claim but in attitude. Is town more likely to mimic someone who's alignment they don't know, or is scum likely to mimic someone they did? Note that I am not saying charter is acting suspiciously, more that those pushing my lynch and ignoring him, are.

[Skruffs]

Your plan:
On day 2 we get tons of worthless cross information, but close to none help with the lynch (you wrote in 377: "

lynching

D clears two players completely", meaning the gain is

after

the lynch, after you confirmed two results by lynching someone whose been investigated a lot, on day 3).

You say that all the cross information is worthless, however, with twice the amount of investigations per cops, that's two times the chances of getting a good result, per sane/insane cop, which makes it multifold more likely to have "good information" as your plan.

You said we can catch scum through "the possibility of chain results...", which on day 2 is extremely unlikely to help us unless something extreme like 3 cops investigating the same scum happens, and we can't really trust chain results because of fake claims, and "...the scum's nightkills", which is funny because a

cop that has one of his investigations confirmed through a NK is exactly what I'm suggesting.

So because scum can make fake claims, no results can be trusted.... but that applies to yours as well. And on day 2, it is likely to happen, which is liiely to help, and on day 3, and forward, it becomes exponentially mroe advancesd. Plus a player that has two resuults, one innocent one guilty, doesn't have to lynch either of htem; one of them will eventually die (due to lynching or mafia kill) which incriminates the other. It forces mafia to potentially not be able to NK players because it results in them being outed. If one sane cop investigates a scum and another sane cop, the mafia lose one of their own by killing the first sane cop. Etc, etc.

You are suggesting that ALL The cops have their sanities confirmed, as long as they investigated scum n1, and if they didn't, then it's only from n3 onwards that they can actually confirm their santiies. There's no sure shot that any scum will be investigated by n3; the chances to investigate accurately drop with each lynch and nightkill. You realize that, and yet you are still trying to postpone the event of actually doing investigations; presumably you would attack any players tomorrow who dared to investigate someone who wasn't a confirmed townie as well, correct?

With your plan the same situation may happen by chance, with mine it'll most definitely happen since we investigate a confirmed innocent (and if Aimless doesn't get NK'd, we still know his alignment so it's all the better.)
On day 3, we get tons of cross info that is more useful because if I have 3 results 1 of which is different it's more likely that the 1 different result is scum, but what we bascically have (barring the cops with confirmed results) is probabilities, that are inferior to actual info.

So teh cross information from the potentially 4 cops alive on day three will be much more useful than the cross information from the potentially 6 cops alive day two as well as the 4 cops alive day 3 from my plan? Why iis it that suddenly in your plan the cops all investigate correctly night three, but none of them can night 2 in my plan? Youo're extorting the reality to fit your plan.

Scum can fake claim and confuse the cops who aren't sure what their results mean. Since they aren't required to "know" their sanity, they can fake claim opposite results which may lead to 2-1 trades that are good for scum, or just be assumed useful cops and ignored if we decide not to lynch based on opposite investigations of cops who don't know whether they're sane or not.

It doesn't matter. IF one of A and B are scum, scum can not kill A because it condemns one of their own. If A says that one of C and D are scum, that measn the same thing. THE more intricate the fake claims, the more likely that somescum is going to be forced to claim something that doesn't fit in with everything else, make a mistake, get lynched. Yours postpones the ability of that happening until the cops are nearly equal with the scum, which makes fake claiming much easier. IE, scum have four dead cops (one for each of them) to mimic before they fake claim, so even at that point your results will mean nothing.

This is the very last time I'm arguing this with you, you can try taunting my "lack of reply" a million more times and ignore the actual things I'm saying, but I'm not gonna go into a circular discussion.

Okay. Then look at what I am saying and see that I am right and agree with it. Then you won't have to fight with me anymore.

I did change my mind. My vote was on Fark first, than he started looking more pro town (his latest post is really excellent) and you were kind enough to act so scummy I just had to move my vote.

Do you remember what I Did that was "so scummy" other than to offer a plan that was different than yours?

Also: those wanting to say that because me and qos investigated aimless and got the samd results, that that is a reason...

I don't think that it's a reason, there are plenty of others. I like how right after Fark makes an excellent analysis and votes you, you defend yourself by refuting the weakest point made against you (by Zeek, a while ago).

I was on my phone, at the time, and can't really do multi-quote events. Fark's response is coming up. But I like how you just did the same thing; Fark attacks me so you hide behind him and point at him.


Alabaska J - why did you just vote me? If RR comes up scum, you need to go next.

[Skruffs]

Skruffs, I still can't ignore your earlier plans such as lynching queen_of_spades. What was up with thaT?

QoS wasn't posting and was stalling in claiming. When she did finally claim, she mimicked my target and result exactly. Why is that suspicious of me to be suspicious of her? And what about it leads you to not being able to ignore it?

As I've said quite a few times, I believe that arguing over the investigation plans are a distraction. So I decided to re-read the posts of the main players who are doing this: RR, Zeek, Charter, and Skruffs. RR I still have doubts about, Zeek I have doubts about but I think is town, charter - not sure yet, but Skruffs is the scummiest player here. Here's why:

Why do you have doubts about them? You said you reread the top posters, that means the people who have said the most about it. And the people that have taken one sidec completely you have no read on? That's rather unfortunate that out of the four people who have the most defined opinions, two pairs or two who basically are exactly the same, you got no read off of one pair completely and only a read off of one half of hte other pair. Why is Charter's arguments less 'readab;e' than my own?

My top choice for suspicion is of course Farkinshop, after QoS. No offense Fark but your choice was very unlucky. Hopefully you will get an innocent on someone tonight.

Skruffs is referring to my "unlucky choice" of Jenter as my N0 investigation. So why is he apologizing for finding me scummy? Lots of players thought this was scummy, no one else apologized for it. It's like he knew that I was town, and "hoping" that i got an innocent investigation tonight, that's strange.

Where does it say that I am apologizing? I was agreeing with others that your night choice was unfortunate for you; that's not apologizing. The point against you that you targetted the night kill choice, is a weak one, and is completely refuted by you getting a counterable choice later on. There was no apologizing there, merely sympathy for , if you are town, a frustrating situation. If you are scum and claimed the dead cop, as your night choice, then you deserve the attention. I don't see how you can think of this as a tell.

We can not do anything to determine who's results are good vs wrong vs broken until we have at least two results. Waiting one day might clear BOTH Tekk and Fark. It is better to lynch someone with no results on them because there is no loss of information AND she's likely sucm anyways.

At this point I had put a vote on QoS to get her to stop lurking, but here Skruffs is already advocating her lynch. Seems like a bandwagon. Also, as has been pointed out, it's not better to lynch someone that has no investigtions on them.

How many other people were voting her at this time? When I said that, I thought that lynching someone with no investigations on them wound up being the best choice for town, considering how many people (cough) wanted to go into day two without revealing results at all. If you are acussing me of coming into the game without a sure and steady way to win, why are you having no read on the other players who changed their mind about how the game should be played? I advocated her lynch because I thought she was acting scummy. Apparently though, thinking she was scummy is a scum tell, just like thinking you are town. And yet you have no read on her replacement...

If we lynch someone today because they have investigations on them and NOT because they are acting scummy, we are removing all traces of scum hunting from the game. One slot is used up.

Fark is both, though.

I'm afraid simply saying that doesn't mean anything to me. Explain how and why.

IF we then all target, say, me, tonight, and I get NK'd...

Assuming your'e town, you won't get NK'd unless the mafia's extemely stupid and decides to save us a misslynch. You keep ignoring that.

So you want to lynch a townie today

, direct all the cop investigations tonight, and then lynch me tomorrow? Wow.

Bold mine

Again, he refers to me as a townie as if he knows that information. He previously said that he finds me scummy, so why is he here defending me as a townie?

He wanted to lynch you purely due to quantity of results on you, not due to any scum hunting abilities. He said you were scummy but never explained why. I wanted to lynch you due to your night kill choice, with Qos as claim staller in first, because those are scum-tells in the traditional game of dethy. The point of it was that RR is trying to completely minimize the effectiveness of both lynches and cops, and I WAs calling him out on that. You were used as an example; completely randomly voting a player day one means 3/11 chance of htem being scum.

While attacking RR, he said this:

You suggested that Fark was unreasonable for suggesting a mass claim, though that mass claim revealed information that the town needs.

In my very next post I called him on it. It still seems like a strange mistake, because most of the first part of the day was taken up with me defending myself for opposing a mass claim. In fact, Skruffs himself was the first to suspect me for it.

Okay, so? I got some names mixed up? In case you couldn't tell, I'm kind of busy trying to catch scum; I'm not goign to go back and research before every post I make, if I did that I would burn out entirely. Does that mistake lead you to think that I as scum intentionally made it as a reason to get RR lynched? If so, how would it have helped me? How would it have hurt him?

Lynching clammy would result in Jenter/Aimless as 1 out of 2 possible sanities, but since she is dead tonight anyways, there is no possible way to reduce that possibility any further.

As Aimless then pointed out:

In particular, the fact that he advocated lynching clammy for the sole purpose of ascertaining my sanity (and did so after I had claimed) despite my almost certain death tonight convinced me that he can't be town.

And? Aimless, a confirmed townie, is convinced I am scum because I want to lynch clammy in the off chance that she, as bearer of Jenter's claim, could be a sane cop. Clammy was laying low at that point anyways. What exactly is the point of suggesting that lynching someone is scummy? Or do you have some reason to think that lynching clammy would be a mistake for town? You didn't target him, so you have no idea, do you? Or are you trying to protect him? ::

By the way, I think Aimless should decide on a full claim order for tomorrow.

This works for me. I was planning on posting a final list of my suspicions and reasoning before the deadline anyway; I can come up with an order then as well.

For example, TDC told you to make the claim list, and coincidentally, he's at the bottom of your order to claim. You being a confirmed townie does NOT Make you more likely to be right about who is scum and who isn't. I am more than happy to claim tomorrow, FIRST, just like I was today, but I Think the rest of the order should not be based on your own hunches unless you feel you are sure enough in your hunches about the game to be responsible fi you wind up putting scum last. You know how gullible you are, I don't, so it's up to you, I would suggest using dice or random.org though. But to show I'm not trying to manipulate you, sure, feel free to put me up first.

I don't care if Skruffs offered to go first, why is he trying to convince Aimless to change his claim order for Day 2? Seems scummy.

And since he has spent the entire time arguing about this investigation,

Vote: Skruffs

IT seems scummy to tell someone not to let other people how to arrange her claim order? Okay. Note I didn't tell her who she should put up top, I just said that she should use a random factor to prevent her from being manipulated. I also said that I WAs willing to go first; I was close to first today, too.



None of these "points" actually suggest that I am scum. THey point to me being curious and investigative. Things I have said have drawn attention to me, and you are using that as an excuse to vote me. THat's unfortunate.

I really think that if I am lynched, and come up town, that any player who decides that I had some points about maximizing the number of investigations, should be free to investigate anyone they want. I think that sinec RR is not willing to be lynched to prove his own identity, which would confirm that he actually believes his own plan would work, that his plan is less trustworthy.

I was going to target charter tonight, for what it is worth. I think he is mimicking my playstyle and my votes so that he has a safe claim later on; and I think that the players who are pushing for my lynch are at least in part compromised of some of his buddies. But oh well.

[Skruffs]

QoS wasn't posting and was stalling in claiming. When she did finally claim, she mimicked my target and result exactly. Why is that suspicious of me to be suspicious of her? And what about it leads you to not being able to ignore it?

This is what prods are for: getting inactives back. If they don't respond, replace them. Lynching QoS just for not posting especially in this game is a horrible plan; with a replacement, we got a very active player in charter. I think you were going for an early bus so that the town would be more open to your hair-brained schemes later on.

ACtually, it was for posting and not claiming.

When everyone else was posting their targets, she posted merely saying that she *WOULD* post, which is a stalling scum tell.

If I was going for an early bus I Would have pushed it harder.

Regardless, the first person to have claimed a target on any player is far more likely to be town than the secondary person, in any instance.

[Skruffs]

Charter - ACtually I was saying that if you want to look at the double voters, the people who followed claims are more likely to be scummy than those who claimed first. Just like those claimed towards the end of hte list (esp those claiming doubles on people) are more likely to be scummy, especially those trying to get their targets lynched for that very reason.

You have been in agreement with me about how to do the investigations tongiht, but you seem to have dropped the pretense and now are ready to hammer me.

Do you think I have been trying to mislead hte town?

Why do you think scum would want to be the only one investigating another player? If so, does that make the player who claimed single-target investigations towards the end more likely to be scummy?

You droppe dhte pretense of arguing against RR (which helped build support against lynching me and incidentally makes you look 'better' after I come up town) to actually go against me for, I think, rather slight reasons.

If me, and me alone, 'exploded' your scum dar, why did you not point out that it was scumy when other players did similar things?

Request: Deadline extension

If I have to be lynched, then I hope at least some of hte townsfolk decide to spread their results. They should assume they targetted townie n0, and not waste a second night investigation to see if htey really targetted scum.

Raging Rabbit, charter, and to a smaller degree alabaska, would all be prime subjects for investigation tonight in my opinion.


I'm kind of glad I'm being lynched day one if you guys DO Decide to follow RR and Zeek's plan - I don't want to be part of a town that chooses ignorance over creativity.

[Skruffs]

"
This is exactly the reason I want to lynch Skruffs - the huge, huge number of times he twisted either facts, ideas or wording to make his plan and train of thought look perfect and anything else like a the road to apocalypse. It's not the fact that he disagreed with me, it's how much BS he used to argue while at it (and in unrelated posts as well, like the absurd suggestion to lynch Clammy for sanity info for Aimless who's gonna get NK'd). I don't have the time to quote everything in a single post, but just do a search on my posts and you'll find quite a few. I just don't think anyone but scum would be that manipulative. "
My plan was not perfect. But it makes it more likely to catch scum than yours. And youcouldn't argue it with logic so yo uresorted to calling me a master manipulator, and sayign stuff like the above. You say I used BS to argue, bu tyou are still pushing for sane and insane cops to target a confirmed townie ; when they shouuld be targetting suspicious players. You say that it was absurd to suggest lynchign clammy, but you yourselef suggested not revealing the results from targetting a confirmed townie. How black are you, anyways, kettle? It's so easy for you to say this about me, and yet you are whole heartedly tryign to minimize the effectiveness of hteinvestigations you DO have, as well asthe ability to find lies OUTSIDE of investigations.


I get lynched today, and that's fine, just let it be known that RAging Rabbit is either a scum, or the unfortunate tool of scum, and that his plan is foolish and wasteful of the options that the game has given it. I believe he knows that and is intentionally provoking such a plan while knowing it, as his responses to my refutations of his plan have devolved to votes and name calling, and baseless appeals to emotion that my plan 'won't work', even though my polan is exactly what town is going to have to do, and doing it while there are as many as possible (and thus the most results as possible) is important - by the time you guys realize that I was right, it may be TOO LATE, and Raging Rabbit is going to hop hop hop all the way to the victory line knowing that he got 7 cops to INTENTIONALLY INVESTIGATE A KNOWN TOWNIE.

Even if he gets lynched, he will still have his ego puffed up by that, and that's sad. You ugys let your ignorance and doubt in your own abilities cloud your judgement and he's completely cashing in on that, and you are letting him.

[Skruffs]

he got 7 cops to INTENTIONALLY INVESTIGATE A KNOWN TOWNIE.

Seeing as this will help confirm many people's sanities, I'm not quite sure why you make this seem like such a bad thing.

How many people will it help confirm? It will help confirm only the sane/insane cops that targetted scum night one.

Again, my plan helps confirm EXPONENTIALLY more of hte surviving sane and insane cops every day. RS's plan won't be effective until there are 7 players alive, potentially none of the townsfolk being sane or insane.

The only way you can know if it would definitely help confirm sanities is if you KNOW that cops have targetted scum and thus might be confirmed tonight.

Fos: Alabaska J

And also Skruffs, you keep claiming that your way "will find scum easier" but like I said earlier (when attacking what charter proposed - which was basically the same thing) it won't.

Okay, let me reply in kind. Yours won't. Wow that's so easy!

Every time you try to explain yours you leave out details that might be... oh I dunno... pretty important.

Such as?

For example, you constantly ignore that in a situation where someone has two different results on two alive players that there are actually THREE possible scum in the group - one of the two people investigated OR the guy who is claiming the results.

Did not ignore that. Consider also that other players may also have multiple results, and that one or more of hte six people involved in those two cops investigatiosn may be the same person - which sets up a binary TRUE-FALSE situation where lynching one person could potentially clear and condemn up to four others. Now multiply that times 4. You could potentially clear the entire game tomorrow if things line up right.

And apparently, in Raging Rabbit, the scum will not be able to fake claim? Why is scum fake claiming only a situation that *MY* plan would have to deal with?

You keep ignoring that the guy claiming results could be scum and telling us how "easy" it will be to catch scum in this situation - while this situation is actually horrible for the town and very hard to figure out which person is the scum. If you ignore that, then yes, your plan APPEARS better - but that's kind of a BIG DETAIL to overlook...

How easy will it be to catch scum tomorrow when everyone claims the same results tomorrow as they had the night before, except -maybe- one player? By not trying to actually get GUILTIES, which are harder to get than innocents, you will wind up with scum being able to fake claim thge same result they originally had without confirming anyone or themselves.

MY plan APPEARS better because it IS. You are looking at the potential bad sides of my plan as if they do not at ALL apply to RR's and YOUR plan, when they DO.

I did NOT over look that detail! With my plan, the scum are FORCED to fake claim; and if suddenly there are two sane people (*confirmed) through multi-investigational networking, and three people who claimed naive, then you have one scum caught through system of elimination. But, that's a big manipulative thing to say,a nd I Realize that trying to say ANYTHING that goes against you and Raging RAbbit makes me an evil mastermind manipulator who is apparently also so stupid that he tried to get someone with no investigations on them lynched to maximize the amount of cross-investigations there are.

Right.

The other plan (the one RR and I have been arguing in favor of) - if someone has two different results, one of the results should be on Aimless, who will likely be proven to be town tomorrow, so then there are only TWO people who could be scum - the guy who is claiming the results or the guy he investigated that got an opposite result other than Aimless.

Your plan also minimizes the chances of someone getting two different results, though. You are arguing in favor of hopefully one guilty investigation out of 6 cops, whereas I am arguing for potentially 4 cross results out of 6 cops.

I fail to see how this is "harder" to catch scum than in your situation. Two possible scum vs three possible scum. Uhm...

Oh yes, because a 50% chance of being right is worth going after rather than a 33% percent. Of course, if (as I already said) any of the three people in my situation have also been targetted by another cop, you can eliminate one or two of those players and thus confirm them without a one-for-one ratio.

I wouldn't expect you to point that out, though, because it forces you to admit you are wrong.

Also I don't understand why you are telling us to "assume we investigated a townie on Night 1". WHY WOULD WE DO THAT?? That's a major bonus for the "investigate Aimless plan" - if you get a different result on Aimless then, besides figuring out your sanity, you caught scum from your night 0 investigation! So why on earth would you try to tell us to ignore our night 0 results? I think you are worried that some of your scum buddies HAVE been investigated so you just want us to ignore that...

Your entire plan is based on assumign that all fo the sane and insane cops investigated scum night 1. Assume, if you will, that the three living cops who have claimed to have investigated confirmed townies aren't included in this mix (one of them, me, certainly won't be, since you are trying ot get him lynched, which is also defeating the purpose of your own plan).

That means that, if all of those cops ARE cops, there are five cops remaining, all of whom targetted one of ten possible suspects. three of those ten suspects are scum, the rerst are town.

That means that there is a 70% chance that any given cop who did not investigate a confirmed townie last night, investigated a different townie.

With a 30% chance that you investigated scum, why are you so eager to confirm that you most likely didn't investigate scum, by targetting another player? It makes sense to think that a completely random investigation has an equal chance of falling on any given player, so of the 4 cops that are alive, 30% each, equalling something like a 36% possibillity that anyone has actually investigated scum.. that might be wrong, don't remember probability too well.

You keep ignoring that the guy claiming results could be scum and telling us how "easy" it will be to catch scum in this situation - while this situation is actually horrible for the town and very hard to figure out which person is the scum. If you ignore that, then yes, your plan APPEARS better - but that's kind of a BIG DETAIL to overlook...

And if nobody is cleared tomorrow, then scum just have to claim a guilty result day three to win the game. YEt you want ot say, "Waaay, it's so haaaaard to figure out who is likely lying! I want to rely entirely on the results and not scum hunt at all!" of course with multiple investigations floating around, you will have to force the scum into fake claiming results, and THAT will result in THEM being targetted by OTHER cops to give those cops basises, etc...

AGain, pot, kettle, blackityblack.


[quote
I would hammer you (oh how I'd love to do that too Razz) but some people said they want to wait for Aimless, so I'll respect that wish.[/quote]
Oh, I just *bet* you'd love to hammer me. When I'm lynched, if town fails, it's on you and RagingRabbit's heads, and at least I Will be able to say I didn't fall for your traps.

[quote You're probably an excellent player in general, judging by Exile Mafia and your reputation, but your play here I find extremely scummy and think it deserves a lynch. [/quote]
I appreciate that you think I am an excellent player, and I understand that that is why I had to be your first target to get rid of, while everyone still isn't sure about their sanities. Distract the town with the promise of totally confirmed cops day two, try to hide the idea that scum would fake claim in your plan, say instead it's only on mine, try to ignore that your plan only works if scum were investigated night one and that it is only useful for one cop at a time, tops, and get me investigated. Bait me and then act stoic and noble, at the same time focussing entirely on discrediting my ideas. I get it. Piously appear to take the high road, when you can't actually logically refute the arguments I put in front of you, and try to turn the table to 'personal attacks' when you can't acttually defend your plan against hte reality of what I am saying.

Skruffs, I'll never forgive you for making me agree with RR.Wink

Die scum.

Yup. When people are happily being led by RR, the people who make sense are the first to go. Good luck!

[Skruffs]

Also, I don't want to bring it up again, but I think we should have gone with skruffs plan and not all investigate Aimless, because look what happened, only ONE scum got investigated N0.

I disagree. We lynched scum on Day 2 and 3 based on that plan. There was almost no scum hunting involved, just results from the investigations. (well, the TDC/zeek day was a judgement call between the 2, but it wasn't all that hard). And if you or I had figured out that I was a confirmed townie, lynching Korlash would have been a no brainer. It's hard to argue with those kinds of results.

Actually you guys used the basis of my plan to correctly lynch day two; the whole "We don't lynch either cop because the scum can't kill the sane cop' was exactly what I was aiming for by dispersing all of the useful cops results about. By getting cross connections of investigations, the scum would be hindered both in who they claimed to have targetted (forcing them to be 'useful' and painting themselves in the corner) and also in who they NK'd (killing sane/insane cops reveals their own identities). You guys immediately picked up on that, only AFTER you had lynched me for it. The way Zeek and RR were absolutely dead set on killing anyone who didn't agree with them was hellaciously stupid for them, they got VERY lucky that one player had investigated scum n1. I think that if that had NOT happened, they would have been SOL for the rest of the game. Regardless, I'm glad that logic prevailed after day one.

Also, I thought that lynching Clammy was a good day one plan because we knew that Aimless's claim was 100% guaranteed not to be a fake claim and thus statistically she was 50% likely to be right about Clammy. He turned out to be scum, too. >.>