Open 512: See Nine Plus Plus (Game Ovah)

[Bulbazak]

Wow. This game moves fast. Sorry for the delay, I had another game that was close to deadline yesterday, and that took priority. I'm 10 pages in. Catching up as fast as I can. Should be done in the next couple of days.

[Bulbazak]

Just going to give an update. I am on page 37 and am really struggling to find the energy or enthusiasm to catch up in this game. I'm seriously considering taking a page out of Kuribo's book and hammering simply to buy me the time to catchup without 20 more pages being added to the game per day.

Varsoon, give me a reason that is not WIFOM of why you shouldn't be lynched. Don't even try any of that multi-level crap, because that alone makes me want to lynch you on the spot. Also, why would you even claim a PR if you're a VT? I haven't gotten to that part in the game, but I saw everyone talking about it (I check in from time to time to check on the current status.). I can't see the town motivation for any of this.

Currently have a town read on Oriole and Cherry. Used to have one on Titus, but I think I saw something in #861 that may point to her being a SK. I'll try to get to page 40 tonight before I decide what to do.

[Bulbazak]

You should have already passed the part where he claimed roleblocker. Did you not think Saki's claim was odd?

The only thing I thought was odd was her eagerness to claim. I refuse to claim whatsoever until L-1 as well, but I'm stubborn about getting there. I don't say, "I'll claim when I'm at L-1, and I'll vote myself to get there.".

[Bulbazak]

I'm not sure when that was made. If it's recent, I'm mostly skimming the current page.

[Bulbazak]

@Bulbazak:
You replaced into a game that was 50 pages and growing at the time. Don't give me that "Oh Im just gonna hammer cus I can't read" shit. That's irresponsible and anti-town as fuck.
I've laid out the town motivation behind my play already, but here's it -again-.
Read post 1089 .
800 posts from then, I've pressured Flench, JMO, and Cherry and gotten scummier reads on all of them.
I've done more work than anyone else in this game.
Calling me useless is a bitter, cynical, and outright wrong statement.

I didn't call you useless. That is a misrep. I'm just questioning your intent, especially since you're a player that knows exactly what he's doing at all times, and frankly your mult-level WIFOM does not sit well with me. We'll see how that holds up the further I get in the reread.

And personally, I'm feeling frayed with everything going on, which means part of me doesn't want to read anymore, especially since some pages are really heavy post-wise while providing little new. I'm not providing anything of worth while I'm slogging through this, and I'm missing out on some valuable opportunities. Chances are that I'll continue slogging through, because I also like to be fully informed, but it won't be at the leisure I could have if I just wait until the night phase.

Pre-edit: Btw, I'm not seeing a Titus/Varsoon team.

[Bulbazak]

Titus, if you quickhammer, I will nail your feet to the floor tomorrow and make sure you're hung from the nearest tree.

Cherry, UNVOTE NOW!

I'm getting really tired of being 50 pages behind while town continues to get WIFOM'd by scum. I'm starting to get a good feel of things just off of what I read alone. Now I'm sure I've missed something, but I can look at the associative tells during the night. Seeing Cherry's claim during one of my glances at the current game state has told me that this needs to end now.

Varsoon is scum. That's all there is to it. His play is designed to confuse town as much as possible and WIFOM them into a state of submission. A look at Calvin and Hobbes shows this is possible. Normal town reaction is to think if someone put themselves on the line in such a way as Varsoon did, then they must be town, and Varsoon is taking advantage of that mode of thought. He needs to be killed ASAP.

Titus is not scum with Varsoon, but is actually the SK. Why? Because he slipped earlier in the game when he only considered the investigative immune ability for a SK, while leaving out the possibility that a SK could have chosen BP. The rest of Varsoon's team is Xiao and Dyslexicon. Xiao has been backing Varsoon's play since he entered, and it meshes with Vote Me saying he'd never vote Varsoon. Xiao is also chainsaw defending Varsoon. The dayvig reaction test means nothing, mainly because I've never seen it work. Ever. Especially in an open setup where dayvig doesn't exist.

Vote Varsoon

I'd rather vote Titus and get rid of the SK, but I'm not losing a town PR via mislynch.

[Bulbazak]

Was going to do a giant catchup post, but I no longer think that's necessary, and it's best to deal with the current situation.

TV, Saki, Cherry, and Pasch are claimed or confirmed roles. Therefore they get put into the town pile. Oriole is town due to the genuineness of his scumhunting. Salm is town due to Stubbs's reaction at the end of d1. Xiao has been cleared by TV, but I think it's highly likely that there is a Godfather. He gets a pass for now, but I want to revisit this later. Flench I go back and forth on. Leaning town atm. I still think Jmo is a red herring, and I will explain why below. As for Dyslexicon, I remember not being as impressed by her posts as other people were. It seemed to be more of an illusion of scumhunting, rather than actual scumhunting.

Here's the setup as we know it: MBVVCXXX

I think Jmo is a red herring. I played with town Jmo in True Love, and he reacted similarly when he was pushed as scum and subsequently mislynched. I really don't see any scum intent in what he's doing, and the way he was being pushed yesterday, by Varsoon in particular, leads me to believe that he's town in this game too. And before you point out that Varsoon could have been distancing from Jmo, I don't believe that, as their exchanges did not look like distancing at all, but rather as Varsoon trying to push a mislynch.

For the record, I think that the setup should look closer to this: MBVVCDXX

People forget that there may well be a doctor in this setup, and the primary targets for last night would have been Pasch/Saki/Cherry, all of which were prime doctor protects as well. I think it is more likely that one of those 3 were protected, rather than Jmo carrying out the kill and being blocked.

Vote Dyslexicon

[Bulbazak]

The odds are low that there is a doctor although it's definitely possible. If a doctor protected someone last night successfully now would be the time to mention it before we hang JMO based on the RB action.

Unless that doctor is 1-shot (which would confirm a full doctor anyway) they need to keep their mouth shut. I am not going to lose a valuable PR for this.

Question: Does a doctor know if they successfully protected someone from a kill, or do they just get a "you protect so and so" and that's it?

Doctors typically send in their protect and then watch what happens at the beginning of the next day phase. They are never told if their protect is successful or not.

P-edit: I think Dys is coasting and that her posts have not been evidence of genuine scumhunting like others seem to think. As for the vig choice, I actually agreed with it, as I thought Titus was scum of some flavor yesterday (and I think the same of you). Titus's death allowed the picture to be cleared up a bit. Dys's would not have done that.

[Bulbazak]

If a good portion of the playerlist is thinking that Titus is scum, he was definitely not obv town.

[Bulbazak]

Jmo, explain your scumreads.

[Bulbazak]

Xiao, I see you ignored my point about Titus.

[Bulbazak]

My point is that you seem to be the only one to say that Titus was obv town. At least 1/3 of the town was against you.

[Bulbazak]

You're also forgetting MVVBCDX, in which case there is no SK.

[Bulbazak]

Then 1/3 of the town is wrong. A few of that 1/3 thought Jmo was town, so, yeah.

My point is that if there was contention on the slot, then Titus was not a bad vig target.

[Bulbazak]

Rolefish much, Xiao? Thanks for telling us you're the Godfather.

[Bulbazak]

I'd rather find your buddy first. It's more entertaining to just watch you hang yourself.

[Bulbazak]

I'd rather find your buddy first. It's more entertaining to just watch you hang yourself.

For a guy complaining about the volume of posts yesterday, you sure added 10 posts of content-lite material to this game pretty fast this day phase. What's up?

-1-

Each of those posts serve a purpose, and not just some sort of "levels" bull crap.

[Bulbazak]

Varsoon wasn't obvious scum because Varsoon has an absurd playstyle whether he is town or scum, which is why I only had a 50% scum read on him.

I was able to figure out that Varsoon was scum in under 50 pages. The only reason he lived for so long is that he excels at muddying the waters. He had town so turned around with his BS that he probably would have survived if I hadn't had enough and voted him in an effort to save what little power the town had left.

P-edit: Oriole, that vote is bad, and you should feel bad.

[Bulbazak]

Bulbazak, you should probably read some of his town games, then.

I've seen his town game. There's a notable difference in that he's not trying to impede the town. I also checked out the Calvin and Hobbes scum QT when sorting this read. Anyone who read that QT or game should have not only known how dangerous Varsoon-scum is to town, but should have also lynched him on the spot in this game due to his trust tell, the very same trust tell that's led to him being banned on-site.

[Bulbazak]

I have strong cases against everyone with evidence

So everybody is scum?

[Bulbazak]

Salmonella, how were you confident enough to submit night moves without reading up on the thread? That's lame bro.

What are you talking about?

[Bulbazak]

Mafia needs to kill CherryDrPepper more than we need to lynch it. They're going to start hitting mafia tonight once we sort all this out and hear from everybody. I'm not suggesting it now, but we could almost mass claim and have really good odds of success.

-1-

I'm down for it considering we already have three exposed PR's.

Absolutely not.

[Bulbazak]

No massclaiming! Do you guys seriously want to put targets on every single PR? You massclaim and we have a doc, he's dead tonight. No massclaiming!

[Bulbazak]

Does no one understand that Cheery could easily be scum?

Hmm, awkward role hinting going on, then the outright "yes im a PR" for no reason...

What?

They claim killing role, so they get to kill all they want and have no consequence. for once i think i agree with xiao.

VOTE: cherry double penetration

elaborations on my scum reads come later.

Could be, but if they are, there will be evidence of that in the night actions and flips. Voting for them now based on "could be" is weak.

[Bulbazak]

The only thing that strikes me as odd about Cherry is that there was no 'why am I still alive' post as if they knew they'd live through N1 as vig. And also how, in that case, Cherry should be sheeping me 100% because the only way Cherry would've lived is if I RB'd the person who shot at her.

There were 3 PRs alive at the end of the day yesterday. Any one of them could have been a target, including you. Again, there are other possible explanations for why there was only 1 kill. Besides, Cherry was pretty vocal about wanting to vig Titus, who scum would know was town. There's no reason to aim for Cherry specifically when there is a roleblocker and innocent child as well.

[Bulbazak]

really, scum would shoot Pasche. For what reason.

Because he's confirmed town, and that's the one thing scum do not want with them in Lylo.

Anyhow, there's more reasons to lynch JMO.

JMO flips scum, Cherry's probably town and Xiao is probably scum.
JMO flips town, Cherry's probably scum/SK and Xiao is probably town.

Reasons behind these please, because I'm not seeing them.

[Bulbazak]

We'll learn who the VT's are so we can kill them.

I understand what he's saying here, but this still doesn't give me warm fuzzies.

The fact that yesterday you were softly defending Varsoon without directly saying he was town or even flat out saying you didnt think he was town while simultaneously chainsawing him was terrible.

I think it's interesting that Xiao responded to every point made by Cherry, except for this one.

Don't really understand where you pull your read on me from, could you be more specific?

It's more gut based, but I really didn't see what everyone else did when they said that you were scumhunting in your posts. Your posts read kinda wishy washy to me, and you avoided making strong stances. Also, out of all the inactives, you were the one that was focused on the least, which made you the most likely choice for a potential scum lurker.

Bulb: Do you think everyone who has a claim is telling the truth?

For the moment, yes. Even if they aren't, that is something that we can deal with later after more flips. There's no need to just start randomly lynching the PRs, simply because one of them MIGHT be lying.

What reaction of stubbs was it that you referred to, making the spot town?

Stubbs got behind and was genuinely frustrated, so frustrated, in fact, that he replaced out of the game. That's a town reaction, not a scum one. Scum may pretend like they were frustrated with the way Varsoon was spamming the thread, but they wouldn't care, precisely because Varsoon's actions were muddying the waters, making it easier for them to survive as a team. Scum would not replace out of an ideal situation such as that simply because they couldn't catch up with the game and were frustrated by the spammers. In fact, scum in that situation probably wouldn't be reading too much into the game in the first place.

As I said, I think Jmo is 99% likely to be scum. I gave a case that no one read, though.

From what I remember of that case, it wasn't that compelling.

Given that Dys only has 10 votes (that should be lynchable in its own right)

Activity is not alignment indicative.

but his vote on D1 when he hadn't caught up is scummy

How is it scummy? It was obvious to me that Varsoon was scum muddying the waters, and I was frustrated that town was allowing him to do that. The environment he created also led to Cherry being outed, and if I hadn't intervened, she would have been lynched. I was at least 50 pages behind at that point, and the longer I took, the longer it was for me to get in the game and stop the madness, and the more time Varsoon had to screw over the town. I finally said, "Screw it" and placed my vote, because regardless, it had to stop.

Btw, it still took me 3 days after the flip to fully catch up with the game.

[Bulbazak]

I didn't address it because it's plain wrong. I didn't even defend Varsoon, I was just vastly more sure of Jmo scum.

You were backing up Varsoon's play since you replaced in. You may try to say that you weren't, but the fact of the matter is that you defended him, while simultaneously fencesitting in regards to his alignment.

It's scummy because you have no idea what all has happened in the game.

I'm all caught up now, and I know perfectly well what happened. Also, at the time I had all the information I needed to lynch Varsoon-scum and protect the town from his influence.

Though I do still think my case on Jmo is flawless.

Then give it to me again, because from what I remember, I wasn't convinced, especially since I have some experience with Jmo-town.

[Bulbazak]

Though I do still think my case on Jmo is flawless.

Then give it to me again, because from what I remember, I wasn't convinced, especially since I have some experience with Jmo-town.

You can literally just go back and reread it as it hasn't changed. He's done scummier things since, but they don't even need to be mentioned because my case on him was solid enough as is.

Just humor me and quote it.

[Bulbazak]

Looked back over Xiao's Jmo case. I still don't find it compelling. Having played with Jmo-town before, I'm not finding his play that different. Jmo is one of those players who don't give much, and with that in mind, Xiao's entire case is attacking playstyle rather than identifying scum tells.

TV's Oriole case is better, although I'm still not completely convinced.

Bulb lost his passion after day 1, too, and started just poking at people. He's not risking much nor making compelling arguments. He could be a decent lynch.

It's hard to say I lost my passion when I was unable to play d1. Getting Varsoon lynched was the only way I was able to majorly contribute to the day. You really don't have much ground to make the claim you're making.

The rest of your post is bad too. Activity and playstyle are not alignment indicative. That post is playing right into scum's hands.

[Bulbazak]

It's more gut based, but I really didn't see what everyone else did when they said that you were scumhunting in your posts. Your posts read kinda wishy washy to me, and you avoided making strong stances. Also, out of all the inactives, you were the one that was focused on the least, which made you the most likely choice for a potential scum lurker.

I think I'm more soft spoken than most of you guys, but I definitely had my stances where I felt strongly about something. I can't control not being focused a lot on though, why would this make me more likely scum?

It's not the "not being focused on" that makes you more likely to be scum. I'm having a hard time sorting you, as you seem to be hanging out in the null area and seem content to continue lurking. This makes me uncomfortable. I'm seeing nothing from you that indicates either town or scum, and with everything that went on d1, there should be something, but there's not.

I don't see Varsoon getting lynched as an "ideal situation" for scum. Actually it's annoying for everyone. I considered replacing out too, but I didn't want some poor replacement having over 100 pages to catch up on. Anyway, I don't see this as alignment indicative.

That wasn't the ideal situation I was talking about. Varsoon muddying up the thread with WIFOM was the ideal situation, as town was off balance. Varsoon could have very well been able to confuse the town to victory, as he has experience doing so as scum. If Stubbs was scum, he may have periodically complained, but he wouldn't have gotten so frustrated with being unable to catchup that he'd replace out, as that'd be contrary to his team's strategy.

Compare that with where you state that you were frustrated and considered replacing out AFTER Varsoon is already dead. It feels more like scum putting on a show, rather than actual frustrated town.

[Bulbazak]

If you don't see anything alignment indicative, how come you had me as scum in your first posts?

Same reason I'm voting for you now. I don't see what everyone else did to call you town, and I think that your scumhunting, if you can call it that, is not genuine.

plus I've already advocated killing all VT's.

I'm advocating finding and lynching scum, but to each his own.

Anyone reading Jmo as town seriously needs to go back to newbie queue, though.

No need to insult anyone who disagrees with you. Having played with Jmo before, I just don't think that your case holds water, as Jmo is like this as town, and given his interactions with Varsoon d1, I think that he's town this game and not scum.

i have very huge problems with all of you atm (except for xiao, maybe)

y'all are saying jmo isn't confscum
that tells me one of these things
a) you don't believe me TRB claim
b) you're trying to deny the obvious (every single possibility in which jmo is not scum is total bullshit)

a.) I believe that you're town roleblocker, so no need to get huffy.

b.) There are multiple ways that you can block someone who is town and a kill still not go through. It's understandable that you have to vote that person, given your view of the game, but that doesn't mean that everyone else has to.

numbers must obviously be a good argument since y'all had hard-ons using it to try and get me lynched D1

I don't deal with numbers. I deal with possibilities, and assume that anything is possible unless proven otherwise, which I think is a good line of thought, since I've seen some crazy crap in my time. Just because the odds are low that something is the case doesn't stop it from being true.

I still think we should massclaim.

No.

On that note, if Jmo is such an obvious lynch, why is Dys sitting at L-2 and Jmo not? Some people have some explaining to do.

I think Jmo is town and that Dys is scum.

Still not completely read up, but I'm willing to lynch jmo/dys.

So when are you going to be read up? It's been what, almost a week now? Can you post some reads? Make a case on someone? Or are you just going to ride other people's wagons until someone finally pays you attention?

VOTE: salmonelladreams

Attention granted. What are you doing in this game? Because right now it feels like you're just skating along under the radar.

Rank

It took me about a week and a half to catch up. It's not surprising that Salmon is still not current in the game. Given his progress, it won't be long before he's on the same page as everyone else.

I'm saying all the PRs are out.
If there was truly a doc save then they would've claimed by now so they could clear JMO. (+1 conftown, never bad)

No they wouldn't. A doc protect would have been on one of the PRs, not on Jmo, and a doc claim still would do nothing to clear Jmo other than saying that someone else was protected. All a doc claim would be doing would be putting a target on the doc's back. Therefore, the doc should not claim. Period. I also find any insistence on massclaiming to be highly suspect at this point in time.

Question: Who first proposed a massclaim?

I think the only possibilities are: saki roleblocked correctly, or Cherry is 1-shot bulletproof.

You are leaving out other obvious possibilities, such as a PR being protected by a doc.

So let's look at behavior instead. Specifically, Bulb's. I see questions and some analysis, but not much in the way of conclusions. One vote for the lurkiest player, and no opinions that could later be used against him. This is safe play. With all the wacky shit going on, safety is not a priority for a town player right now. Bulb is almost textbook active lurking.

We have 4 claimed/confirmed PRs. That leaves a pool of 6 other players to find scum in. I have town reads on Jmo and Salmon. I think Oriole and Flench are likely to be town, although I'm starting to wonder about my Oriole read. I have a scum read on Xiao, but TV got an innocent on him, so there's nothing to pursue there. That only leaves Dys, who is

actually

active lurking. If you can't see any conclusions in my posts, then you aren't looking hard enough or asking the right questions.

[Bulbazak]

I still think we should massclaim.

No.

Oh good, thanks for responding to that in-depth. I was thinking you would be vague and not explain why you disagree.

After having a massclaim lead to a scum win in a previous game, I'm universally against a mass claim of any kind.

I'm saying all the PRs are out.
If there was truly a doc save then they would've claimed by now so they could clear JMO. (+1 conftown, never bad)

No they wouldn't. A doc protect would have been on one of the PRs, not on Jmo, and a doc claim still would do nothing to clear Jmo other than saying that someone else was protected. All a doc claim would be doing would be putting a target on the doc's back. Therefore, the doc should not claim. Period. I also find any insistence on massclaiming to be highly suspect at this point in time.

Bulbazak, stop being so dense, please. Saki is clearly not saying the hypothetical Doc protected Jmo, he's saying the protect would have prevented a kill on anyone else, thus if there was a Doc that said they protected someone, Saki's roleblock wouldn't be the only possibility. However, Saki doesn't believe there are anymore PR's in this game, so he doesn't think there's a Doc.

I understand that, but the reasons for why a doc shouldn't claim still holds true. All that would do is make the doc a target for the NK, therefore making him useless.

Question: Who first proposed a massclaim?

Either me or Tunnel.

I looked it up. It was Saki. Nevermind.

[Bulbazak]

@Bulb, just because a mass claim went awry in one game doesn't mean it'll go awry in every game. That's a pretty faulty way of thinking.

Massclaims generally favor scum more than town, though. If we keep the PRs unknown, we keep scum in the dark, which is beneficial for us.

We have a major advantage over scum right now, though. Like, scum can't even really fake claim right now. They'll likely claim VT's. Which brings me back to: Kill all the VT's.

Then we shouldn't massclaim in order to keep any remaining PRs we may have unknown. All a massclaim does is out PRs, giving scum more targets to aim at and any protective roles less chances to actually do their job.

THERE IS NO FUCKING DOCTOR.

EVEN IF, OPPOSING THE ODDS, THERE IS ONE THERE IS NO REASON FOR THEM NOT TO CLAIM BEFORE NOW SINCE THAT WOULD'VE SAVED TOWN A WHOLE DAY OF WIFOM.

A doctor WOULD NOT claim, simply because claiming would go against their role by putting a target on their back, making them useless for the rest of the game. Saying who they protected does nothing to stop the WIFOM. It just adds a new layer. Therefore, they should not claim so they can continue to do their job. Any attempt to get them to claim or to start a massclaim is essentially an attempt to rolefish and should be treated as such.

[Bulbazak]

You're forgetting something, if there's a doctor then there's a serial killer, unless there's a 1-shot Doc/Vig/Roleblocker around.

Huh.
That practically confirms MBCVVTT

No it doesn't, for the same reason that your roleblock doesn't confirm Jmo is scum. You are failing to consider all the possible outcomes, such as 2 killing roles targeting the same person. We can't start ruling things out based only off of 1 night.

[Bulbazak]

and seriously, if one of you out there is doctor, then claim so we can confirm the set-up since

we have an advantage over scum

at the moment and we'd like to use that advantage and not let it slip by us while we lynch some poor lurker.

Anyways, I highly doubt there's a doc, and if there is, he can fuck off for letting us WIFOM for twenty pages.

STOP ROLEFISHING!

You're really suggesting that both SK and mafia just happened to target the same person and the "Doc" just happened to be protecting that person?
Or are you suggesting that the SK would kill Titus? I hope you're not suggesting this because I would completely quit listening to you for the duration of the game.
Or are you suggesting that the mafia would kill Titus? Again, I'm hoping you're not suggesting this.

I'm not suggesting anything. I'm just saying that there's too many unknowns to say one way or another. It would be better to speculate about the makeup of the scum faction(s) after another night, when we will have more information to go off of.

[Bulbazak]

Seriously Saki, that was incredibly anti-town. Jmo hasn't been paying the best attention anyway, and he probably would have fell for it.

[Bulbazak]

Well, we'll never know now.

[Bulbazak]

Saki, if you weren't a non-CC'd PR, I'd want your head on a pike for this.

[Bulbazak]

Intent to hammer.

That reaction from Jmo was incredibly fake. I'd still like to hear from Dys before I hammer, though.

[Bulbazak]

I think getting rid of Varsoon d1 really helped the town in the long run. We didn't have as much BS to cut through on the following day. Congrats everyone!

[Bulbazak]

No problem. It was a headache catching up, but thankfully getting rid of the problem made the game a lot more enjoyable d2.

[Bulbazak]

I think Varsoon is almost an automatic RVS vote for me now.

[Bulbazak]

Also, if we get enough people, Bo and I will get to test drive our new hydra. Boba Fett needs to kills some people...

P-edit: I actually almost said policy lynch, but I also am not a huge fan of PLs except in very specific circumstances. Varsoon spam is probably one of them.

[Bulbazak]

Funny thing is that I reread Dys's ISO in order to solidify my read on him. I was prepared to go after him if we went into d3.

[Bulbazak]

You should probably hydra for C--. In fact, let's see how many from this game we can get in that one.

[Bulbazak]

It can be "See Minus Minus: The Sequel!"

[Bulbazak]

I think I'll go with that option.

[Bulbazak]

If I saw that hydra in that game, I'd call for an automatic policy lynch to save town the trouble.

[Bulbazak]

I know. I'd still lynch it in a heartbeat if we did a sequel.