Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[pieceofpecanpie]

First? Well then let's goooo...

Best thing to do is get a vote on that wretchedly wicked knave Belisarius.

VOTE: Belisarius

[pieceofpecanpie]

Are you a troubled person normally, Deckard?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Oh why would you reference the mighty Dick himself... how can I lynch you now?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1

I didn't realise how ambiguous that read.

What I meant was: Hoopla was town and used draft order theory to set up sensible lynches and/or nail most of scum Day 1.

Posts like this one from that game are very useful. I want to bring some of that into the discussion soon. Pretty much when most folks have dropped in/moved beyond RVS.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Alabaska actually raises a decent point. Choosing a number over 9000 doesn't clear you. Yeah, it doesn't implicate you either, like Siv pointed out in #54, but the defensiveness is interesting.

@Siveure

This is your first PYP game yes? Were you hoping to get a free town ticket with your draft number?

[pieceofpecanpie]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: Stryker

Well that's me out of RVS.

[pieceofpecanpie]

You'd prefer it if I started pushing for your lynch?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Sure, if there's a reason for it besides "picking at random from amongst the top five"

If there's no actual reason, it's still RVS.

I have an actual reason for voting Stryker.

Some rudimentary PoE is only part of that.

[pieceofpecanpie]

why not tell us more about this actual reason instead of alluding to it?

Mmmm, I will very shortly.

Beli's #61 and #63 put me off.

[pieceofpecanpie]

@Mutleyddmc

Well yes, I guess Alabaska's powers of observation are mighty and he's managed to point out you're still RVS. But why are you? 3 pages in still no scum reads or anything catch your eye?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Am I not allowed to be?

You can be whatever you want, you can also be scummy and I'll vote you. Is that what you want to be?

Can you answer the question:

3 pages in still no scum reads or anything catch your eye?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Can you answer the question: 3 pages in still no scum reads or anything catch your eye?

Third time's a charm.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Case on Stryker:

post 12 - Posts a picture instead of RVS, Deckard calls him out for it in #14, which gets ignored

post 24 - I really dislike this post, needlessly discredits Siveure when I consider his #23 a pretty decent resource of quotes. If anything Siv's draft number pick is WIFOM, so there's no reason not to take Siv seriously if he's posting useful material, unlike the pointless fluff that Stryker throws down at the end of this post.

post 28 - Complaining about WIFOM when his last post was full of it. Strikes me as pretty contradictory, and looks like Stryker's beginning a pattern of reacting to other people's posts and criticising them while showing no initiative.

post 31 - Here come the major scumpoints. Take a look at that last sentence,

"There is not much point discussing why someone chose 1 over another numbers imo"

, but wait a minute wasn't Stryker critiquing Siv's number choice and speculating over town choosing number 1 in post 24? Wasn't Stryker speculating that scum wouldn't double up with numbers in post 28? So there's not much point in discussing numbers, but why is that all I've seen from Stryker? Although, to be more accurate, I'd label it reactionary critique and discrediting of other peoples posts while throwing out some waffly comments related to the draft order.

The only aspect of Hoopla's theory from the other game that I looked at was to consider where Stryker falls in the draft order. He chose 10, which is unique, so I still like my scum read. At this stage I would've only reconsidered the read if he'd been a 2 or a 4. That's not to say scum can't be in those numbers, it's just favourable for them to have unique numbers higher up the draft order.

@Belisarius

And that's why I'm

not

voting you or Smudger.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I checked some of his other games. Need I say more?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Taking this post

Draft order is can be very relevant with PYP, and number theory really helps identify the best scum candidates.

Hoopla almost broke this game for scum in Day 1. I was scum that game, I'm going to read over it again and remind myself exactly why I was sweating it out so much.

So at least 1 in every double and 2 in every triple is town, right?

Well, yes and no.

It's not definitive, but it's a great indicator. Scum still could've deliberately doubled up - it's been done in one game before, by Hoopla no less - and I could also be scum who is now just misleading people with theories. The bottom line is go search for scummy players, that's what I'm doing as well, however once you've identified suspect players I reckon draft order theories have a good role to play in developing lynch lists or helping with PoE.

The two posts I'm referencing currently from Open 427's PYP game are Hoopla's #100 (which I'd already linked) and Hoopla's #230.

The #230 is very interesting as it introduces the concept of randomness and how people tend to interpret what is random a lot differently from what is truly random. The gist of it is that when you get 3 people (ie. the scum team) to pick 3 numbers in consultation with each other, they'll try to make the numbers look a bit "random" lest they leave an obvious link to one of their scumbuddies. What that means is that they usually avoid patterns like 4,6,8 or 6,7,8 or other number sequences, even though these are just as likely to come up in a random number generator.

So if we take that line of thinking and put it into context: I'm currently voting Stryker (10), so I consider it very unlikely that he's in a scum team with both Smudger (6) and Belisarius (8), although there could still be one scum among them. So 6, 10, ? and 8, 10, ? are possible, but I'd consider a sequence of 6, 8, 10 highly unlikely for the scum team.

Just some food for thought.

[pieceofpecanpie]

[...] decent case, but its timing is rather convenient.

Uhhh, what?

If by convenient you mean I didn't put the case forward at Night, in a locked thread, when I'd be unable to post it and you wouldn't be able to read it. Then yes, I suppose I did time it conveniently for everyone. However, I don't think that's what you meant, so could you elaborate on this line?

[pieceofpecanpie]

I read your other games too

And...?

[pieceofpecanpie]

I'm not sure what's gone on there, but I think it's more a case of hasty reading by TMTOL.

But why are you calling it a "hard misrep", Beli? That line of questioning was directed

at

TMTOL, not you. And neither TMTOL or YTWC appear to have any agenda towards misrepping you.

Also, is that the only aspect of the game you feel is worth commenting on?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Then why do what you did in your #90?

If it's not suggesting that you have something of a case or read on any other player, why even remove your RVS?

Is that merely to avoid drawing attention or suspicion to yourself? Because making a move like that, yet not being involved in the game beyond it is very conspicuous.

[pieceofpecanpie]

So you lied?

Are you planning to keep this up all game?

[pieceofpecanpie]

It doesn't even matter, ignore as much as possible for Day 1 at the very least.

[pieceofpecanpie]

So I guess that nullifies the randomness logic, pecan?

Absolute not.

To repeat my previous statement on both those theories:

It's not definitive, but it's a great indicator.

I was already aware of the 1, 2, 3 draft pick game and it changes nothing, since I am not relying on theories to find scum, but good 'ol fashioned scumhunting. The theories are just helpful at times because they narrow particular odds. The only thing that's important right now in regards to them, is to be vaguely aware that they exist, so hopefully I don't have to repeat that stuff too often if I draw from it.

Having said that I believe we should be looking at a lynch from the top half of the draft pool for today. That's why my vote on Stryker isn't moving, that and his current absence hasn't changed my read.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Who was that directed to Sakura?

[pieceofpecanpie]

I assumed that, but then his vote wasn't counted, so he's currently not voting anyone.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Watch as scum now start casting suspicion on multiple players.

[pieceofpecanpie]

It doesn't even matter, ignore as much as possible for Day 1 at the very least.

So in essence, Pecan, he gets a wild card into D2?

He would anyway, regardless of his try-hard one-liner schtick.

A longer post about some of the other things will have to wait until I get home.

[pieceofpecanpie]

why would I?

Because it would be much better to lynch from towards to top half of the draft order today, so you're not ideal. Furthermore there are players who have given off scumtells, who are sitting in that top half, whereas your repetitive responses haven't pinged either alignment for me.

[pieceofpecanpie]

VOTE: pieceofpecanpie

*raises eyebrows*

for the following reasons:

[pieceofpecanpie]

Yes, I am Susan.

Dunno what this Driver method is hoping to achieve in this text-based game, feels catching someone out in this is like the difference between live chess and correspondence chess in terms of effectiveness.

I'd love to post more, but rather a busy weekend. I've almost put it behind me, but I need some time to put together the sort of post I want to next. I am following along though.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Wow!

First quote isn't even Elyse's words.

Second quote is dressed up to look worse.

Third quote is completely out of context.

VOTE: Xdaamno

That kind of selective smearing just reeks.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Bleh, I really don't like PPP's lack of commenting on my replace in given that I've replaced who was his big scum-read, the switch without saying "Okay, yeah I was wrong on X" or anything of the sort feels like leaving the option to move back at a later time and dislike the complete ignorance of the Sakura case and her reaction.

I've been really, really busy lately.

If I hadn't made that clear already, consider this my post to say that I haven't been able to involve myself anywhere near as much as I would like to have over the past few days. Is there something you want me to look at? Or are you just idly trying to sling some dirt my way? My #216 makes things reasonably clear.

I believe Xdaamno's response in #269 is really suss and flailing. If anyone is making opportunistic pokes it's him. Now it just look like someone trying to bluff their way out of a bad situation. My vote stays.

pedit: I haven't read over the last few posts.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Timing of posts and "I'm busy ect." statements are hard to grasp upon replacing in; that said I still didn't like your attack on Xdamno, it ignores a lot of what's gone on and is very weak; while you might be 'busy' and have 'limited time' your post shows you've read the thread and it only takes an extra minute or two to comment on alternative content.

To the first part, yes of course I can appreciate that. It also shouldn't excuse me in any way, and I don't intend to use it as an excuse, it was merely the best response I had to your earlier critique.

To the second part of this, I both agree and disagree. I'd need to - and with some rereading intend to - expand more seriously on why I've voted Xdamno, but I still feel strongly enough about his #267 and subsequent responses that I'm comfortable with my vote. Right now it feels a bit weak and under-cooked, but that doesn't change what I feel towards those posts and hopefully with some time can show to everyone, and it doesn't change the posts themselves. I'd say that coming in here - with my limited time - to take action, like changing a vote and commenting on something that I find the most important thing right now, renders the remaining critique in your paragraph moot.

There is something in particular that I want you to read and that's Deckard and Sakura individually, their interactions and mentions of each other (Specifically Deckard calling her null for reasons he's called other scum) and the reads list order not matching that I pointed out above.

I'll get on that. I'll also be looking at what you've been saying about them and what you said about me in #292.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Is this a Brandi alt or something...?

[pieceofpecanpie]

Yes that was directed at Sakura, but incidental anyway.

I realise I've come in posting and missed the remainder of page 10. I'll read up, makes notes, sleep, then more content posts coming your way.

[pieceofpecanpie]

it was him or sakura. but sakura died so

Eh? Can I get the idiot-proof version?

[pieceofpecanpie]

If you're going to critique that, Elyse, at least tackle the post as a whole. There was more to it than just

that

paragraph.

I've got to read Alabaska again, because voting him now would be a complete 180 on my previous read.

@Alabaska

On massclaiming, I've never experienced it before in PYP. Seems like a hideous idea to me, especially taking into consideration who scum targeted.

On that note,

VOTE: Smudger

Something about him making a slow sheep/bus vote on Deckard right before the self-hammer, something about his extended interest in Belisarius' theory and seeing Belisarius get killed last night, something about Belisarius being

second

in the draft order and Smudger being first. It just makes me want to park my vote here for now.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I don't think that's an important point, since we shouldn't be roleclaiming anyway.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Best to put these dreams behind you now. There, there, we'll just kill 'em the 'ol fashion way: stringin' 'em up.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Urghhh, I don't like the weight of expectation, but nevertheless I'll give it a shot.

why we shouldn't massclaim
My impressions of claiming in this set-up is that whatever advantage town gains, scum gain at least double. Where are scum likely to throw their kills? Near the top of the draft pool of course. Where are the town power roles? Near the top of the draft pool. Who already knows who is scum and not-scum near the top of the draft pool? Exactly. Why give them the best signpost of which town got a role and who missed out? Look at Belisarius' death, it may or may not be baiting a mislynch onto Smudger, but it is most definitely scum exercising their best odds at eliminating town PRs.

As a quick secondary point, it is also ridiculously easy for scum to fakeclaim. Oh and someone claiming a PR shouldn't save them from a lynch, but if anything provide extra incentive to lynch them, if the player is scummy enough to put votes onto then they'd be an even bigger threat with a PR. Whatever strength town gains from PRs, scum gains equal if not greater strength.

what we should do instead
Town's greatest weapon is the lynch. And talk leading up to and around a lynch. We shouldn't be reliant on PRs in this set-up as we don't know what we've got and little ability to coordinate powers. We

should

be lynching scummy players from

near the top

of the order. At least for today, and probably tomorrow. That's our weapon for every coming lynch. Whether they flip town or scum, if they're a PR it's good information, if they're not then it's still relevant information and then we can create some stronger speculation, PoE and standard scumhunting. If we hit a scum PR then we've accomplished something greater than the loss of a town PR.

I'm opening this train of thought up to anyone to give commentary, discussion, etc. on it. I think it's much more fruitful to look at what information we have currently, rather then set-up a claiming session. We should be able to find a satisfactory lynch from what we've already got.

a bit on Deckard
I've got a little bit down, but most of this is off the cuff and I don't want to dwell too much on anyone else previous points so there may be some overlap.

post 14 - an early note on Stryker caught my attention and really had me highlighting Stryker's entire ISO later on. The case I made ended up weak and premature, but not without some degree of merit. However, I believe Deckard and Stryker's interactions strongly indicate they aren't of the same alignment. Although worth noting that if I was reading Yesterday independently of that I'd reach the same conclusion.

post 113 - passive commentary from Deckard, really should have picked up on it. He's directing suspicion onto players without voting. I believe the way he ends this post bares his own self-conscious feeling that led to his next one being an attempt at a reads list.<sup>1

1</sup>

"[...] shows the lack of Stryker's posts. Posting like that is either stupid or scummy, or maybe both."

post 159 - the empty reads list. Players picked up on it at the time - or at least Siv after a quick check - and although I noticed it I really didn't bring it up. I regret doing that and regret losing the amount of input I wanted to put towards the game at this point. Interesting to note Belisarius' questionable technique still did pick up on this post by Deckard. On the other hand his technique completely fails to see the merit in it. Deckard's tone may have been consistent and appearing helpful up until this point (although crucially he was still passive about voting), but if you take this post of empty reads on it's own merits, then it's the best scumcase against Deckard you're going to get.

post 291 - a nice bit of WIFOM on Sakura. I didn't think too much of Deckard's interaction with Sakura or vice versa, the order in his reads list a red herring, but not conclusive. Sakura's ISO itself is her biggest detriment, it has some very questionable posts and is a good enough reason to warrant a vig shot.


That'll do me for now. There's a follow up post I'm putting together from here, but it'll take a bit longer. Then there's sleep and staying involved in the discussion in the meantime. Namely trying to convince people not to claim.

[pieceofpecanpie]

@Yesterday

I need more time to consider point you're making from massclaiming. It's still bloody dangerous and we could even comfortably PoE it down to a similar number with the info we have right now. Or at least that's the impression I get, but notes must be scribbled on this.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Tbf in this game surely scum knows that the PRs are likely to be near the top anyway. So yer mass claim looks better everytime I think about it

Is that why scum killed Belisarius??? Seriously, think about it, do you think they would've chosen him if there

had been

a massclaim already?

[pieceofpecanpie]

When did Yesterday first claim Cop? Anyone?

How long has passed with no CC from Smudger?

Unless I am totally mistaken there is no harm in a Smudger lynch today and, in the unlikely event that we've been played, a Yesterday lynch tomorrow.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Add to that if I'm right about what I'm reading re; a soft-claim then he and only he visited me last night confirming him as 100% the mafia roleblocker.

Where's this bit? What'd I miss? I haven't seen confirmation of a tracker, or don't you want to point out something you've picked up on?

I'm just trying to understand why someone would fakeclaim into a role that's already been claimed. Is it a simple case of a stupid fakeclaim? Is it really that -ly simple? I would've thought there's at least 2 other viable first pick roles to claim. Or just claim the Doctor and say there's a Jailkeeper on the loose.

[pieceofpecanpie]

I'll work up some questions for you shortly. Dinner first.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Smudger's claim being basically the exact same thing as yesterday's is hilarious.

This is the only clear thing I've gotten out of the today.

Let's take moment to appreciate the moment.



But more seriously now, because I still can't quite believe this is how it really is, but it truly does appear so.

Looking over notes I've made I have Siv and Mutley as strong town reads and YTWC as a weak town read. The only person that differs more strongly from your list, Yesterday, is TMT who I don't have a clear alignment read on yet. I'll re-read him before the Day is out.

Interestingly I have Cade's slot earmarked as the next best lynch option.

Beyond that I'm not happy with my read from the bottom half of the draft pick. Needless to say I've eliminated the WIFOM over Sakura's slot, but that's about it.

[pieceofpecanpie]

#510 & #511 acknowledged and understood.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Wow guys, that was quick!

So so quick.

Good game everyone.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Nominated Yesterday for Rising Star Scummy, I couldn't think of anything better, regardless of the alt potential.

However, if I see more games like this it'll have to be Best Mafia Catcher.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Oh I see.

I hope Mod doesn't mind too much me saying this, but if anyone's interested I could really use a replacement for the game I'm currently modding.

Refer to my sig.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Why hell yes, thank you.

(Sorry for the off-topic shameless plug, I've had the request up for almost a week)

[pieceofpecanpie]

He already gave it to you... yesterday.

[pieceofpecanpie]

Thanks for the modding Jennifer.

GG everyone.