Open 176 - Night Watch - GAME OVER


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Post Post #74 (isolation #0) » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:12 am

Post by ekiM »

Here is the game charter is referring to: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12330

On D1 about the only thing he said about me was "I like what I'm seeing from Mike."

N1 he watched me. He later said "I targeted Mike because it seemed there were near universal consensus that he was town."

On D2 a paranoid cop claimed guilty on DDD. About the only thing DDD said about me was "You know what else is hysterical, how people with firm reads like Elvis and Mike on both EL and myself are suddenly so willing to reverse against their own previously held positions. Where's the confidence in your own fucking reads, don't let this liar take the easy way out", which is an appeal to me. DDD was quite vocal between the claim and his lynch but I don't think he ever so much as pointed a finger at me.

I'm not sure how charter gets "DDD was pretty much on ekim" out of any of that.




Here is the scum quicktopic from the game: http://www.quicktopic.com/43/H/THf3mGauvRZ

I never even mention DDD before his death.




The other game I've played as scum vs DDD town is http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=11906. DDD never seriously suspected me until endgame via process of elimination.

The first two nights we killed masons, the third night my partner wanted to kill DDD but I didn't.
muzzz PM to ekiM wrote:I'm thinking we should kill DDD. Mostly because I don't have a real read on his suspicions. And partly because my gut tells me he would be potentially dangerous tomorrow. At first glance, that would leave us with Santos vs Shanba and Kise vs me. Which should give us enough opportunities to win this game, I think.
ekiM PM to muzzz wrote:Current player evaluation:

Shanba suspects Santos and Kise. Was on these lynches: Sho, Raivann.
DDD's suspect died. Was on these lynches: Sho, Raivann, Exalt.
Santos suspects Shanba, said earlier he would follow Kise onto muzzz. Was on this lynch: Sho.
Kise suspects muzzz, DDD, [Santos]. Said he was uncomfortable with a Sho lynch. Thinks ekiM is town. Was on these lynches: Raivann, Exalt.
muzzz suspects Kise. Was on this lynch: Raivann.
ekiM's suspect died. Thinks DDD and Shanba(zazie) are town. Was on these lynches: Sho, Exalt.

Kill options:

Shanba suspects people other than us and is suspected by some. If he's dead, Kise and Santos will go for you? Not the kill I think.

DDD has been on every townie lynch and left himself sitting pretty to vote whomever today. Looks pretty scummy, no?

Santos has been off most of the lynches, and kind of vaguely obv-lazy-town. Shanba might go for him though. He is against you. Maybe...

Kise has suspected you, but also other players, and was against the Sho lynch. I like this kill a bit I think.

I haven't decided what I think is best yet, what do you make of the above observations?
later ekiM PM to muzzz wrote:I sent the kill order on Kise. I dunno if we can change before deadline if we want or not.

I wanted that kill because: it leaves both of us with no recent suspicions, so we can do whatever is most advantageous, it kills a contentious person, it means there isn't an anti-muzzz kise/santos axis.



I respect DDD as a player but his record reading me as scum isn't phenomenal. He wouldn't be my first choice to kill out of that player list (charter and KK would definitely be higher priority).

I don't understand charter's explanation for his vote, or why he didn't provide it right away, or why he didn't provide some documentary evidence of DDD clocking me as scum.

This post is too long.
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Post Post #75 (isolation #1) » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:38 am

Post by ekiM »

Concur with charter that anyone who watched DDD should claim. So do many others.

I already said I don't get charter's suspicion of me. I don't get why DRK followed him without asking for a rationale or for me to respond.

I need to sit down and look at that other Night Watch game to see if hypo-hider is viable. It sounds good to me at first glance. I would like to know why RayFrost doesn't like it.




What are the odds of the hider dying night one if he hides?

P(Hider dying night 1) =
P(Hider picks scum) + P(Hider picks town and that guy is targeted) =
3/11 + ((8/11)*(1/9)) =
3/11 + 8/99 =
27/99 + 8/99 = 35/99 ~= 0.35.

That's assuming random choices, the hider can do better by hiding with someone with less of a reputation and thus less chance of being killed.

Still not worth it, I feel.




Scien's wall of text is totally unproductive, but I don't feel it's alignment indicative. Please try to be more succinct.




I need to hear charter's response to my previous post.




Legitimate contribution: charter, DRK, ekiM, KK, Scien, RayFrost.
Posting but posting nothing worthwhile: Dramonic, hewitt.
AWOL: Gregory, Sleepless Assassin, Octupis
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Post Post #80 (isolation #2) » Sat Oct 24, 2009 8:53 am

Post by ekiM »

charter, you think I killed DDD because of private conversations you had with him that I've never seen? Really?

OK, KK hasn't said anything. Thought he had.

sleeplessassassin the plan is for you to comment on what's happened so far.
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Post Post #83 (isolation #3) » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:01 am

Post by ekiM »

charter if your theory is that I'm terrified of DDD because of what he said in that postgame discussion why didn't you even go back and look at it?

He didn't say anything about having suspected me after death. You said one sentence buried in a long post - "Good work ekim, I had you as lurkerscum when I was discussing with DDD after we were both dead". I didn't remember it, and, if anything, it would make me more likely to want to kill you, not DDD.

This is dumb.
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Post Post #84 (isolation #4) » Sat Oct 24, 2009 9:02 am

Post by ekiM »

Hey sleeplessassassin, maybe you can comment on what
people have said
? Like, whether you agree, disagree, find anything scummy?
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Post Post #172 (isolation #5) » Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:42 am

Post by ekiM »

Crap, I can't be here this weekend. I will catch up later this evening.
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Post Post #173 (isolation #6) » Fri Oct 30, 2009 4:43 am

Post by ekiM »

Don't do hider hypo-claim yet.
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Post Post #175 (isolation #7) » Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:10 am

Post by ekiM »

Mod - I ain't voted
.

Hypo-hider should DEFINITELY wait until at least lynch time. I still have doubts about it too.

If scum can deduce who the hider is then that's awful, they can then get a 2-for-1. I don't see a need to say with whom we would have hidden N0. That just makes it so much easier for the scum to work out who could be a genuine hider. If we don't reveal that, then they have no way of knowing today.

I think if we do do hypo-hider then we should only do it today. If half the town say they would hide with scum, and the hider doesn't die, then the scum have very few possible hiders to choose from, and they can try for a N2 2-for-1.
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Post Post #176 (isolation #8) » Fri Oct 30, 2009 9:13 am

Post by ekiM »

Octupis is seemingly AWOL.

DRK, hewitt = good lynches right now.

vote: hewitt
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Post Post #273 (isolation #9) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:21 pm

Post by ekiM »

I think SA is town. I think Hewitt is scum. I think the wagon on SA has been pushed to deflect from the Hewitt wagon. Let's lynch Hewitt.
DRK wrote:This also isn't a scum tell. "Hey guys! He's not scumhunting! Scum don't need to scumhunt! He must be scum!" This doesn't at all take into account reality. Good townies scumhunt and good scum appear to scumhunt. Bad townies don't scumhunt (or at least not well) and bad scum don't appear to scumhunt (or at least not well). Basically, not at all a scum tell.
So because Hewitt is bad at Mafia you're going to excuse whatever he does? You can dismiss pretty much any scumtell with this logic. It's a terrible precedent to set in a game.

dramonic's turn around from 235-237 is absurd.

Anyone calling SA opportunistic is wrong. SA was one of the first on Hewitt.

Trying to paint the vote for DDD as some terrible thing? WTF? SA wagon is definitely scum driven.
hewitt wrote:The easy target is the player who scum feel they can get a quick and easy lynch on D1 without arising too much suspicion with a weak case. You presented the weak case, other players stupidly followed on board with even weaker reasonings and voila your easy target has been established. Octupis and Gregory clearly aren't the easy target because they're not even receiving pressure for their minimal contributions.
The questions was "why is hewitt an easy target?". Answer it.
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Post Post #274 (isolation #10) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:25 pm

Post by ekiM »

How hypo-hider is going to go down


When we have a solid majority of the town ready to lynch someone, then we do hypo-hider claim. Not before. Everyone on the wagon and the hammerer should confirm that they won't change their mind.

Everyone pick who you think is most likely to be scum (other than the lynchee). Say you'd hide with them. If the flip might change your opinion, you can give a name for each option (A is lynchee flips town, B is lynchee flips scum).
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Post Post #276 (isolation #11) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:31 pm

Post by ekiM »

hewitt wrote:
ekiM wrote:I think SA is town. I think Hewitt is scum. I think the wagon on SA has been pushed to deflect from the Hewitt wagon. Let's lynch Hewitt.
Who can argue such stellar reasoning such as this? Case in point- a weak wagon on who players deem to be the easy target. Thank you very much ekiM for validating my point.
I think you're scum because you've refused to be pro-town. I don't care if you have a meta of being useless---that makes me happier with the lynch.

It helps that I have a pro-town read on SA.
hewitt wrote:
ekiM wrote:The questions was "why is hewitt an easy target?". Answer it.
You'd have to ask SA that question, he's the one who chose it.
Eh? You said SA voted you because you're "an easy target". Explain why SA would think you're an easy target. If you can't or won't, then that argument is bullshit.
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Post Post #278 (isolation #12) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:41 pm

Post by ekiM »

Yes, you outlined how SA is being opportunistic by placing an early vote on you and then having other people join. The problem with that is that that's not what opportunism means. Your arguments are just crap.
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Post Post #280 (isolation #13) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:46 pm

Post by ekiM »

hewitt wrote:Uh reaching so hard for a case that you're practically reaching for the moon is definitely playing opportunistically.
No, reaching is not the same thing as being opportunistic. If someone is being an opportunistic scum, then they take the
opportunity
to get a townie lynched without looking too guilty. If you want to accuse SA of being
opportunistic
you'll have to explain how she could know that placing the first vote on you and making a case on you was a good
opprtunity
to get a townie lynch.
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Post Post #281 (isolation #14) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 12:47 pm

Post by ekiM »

I've stated why you're scum. Because you've done nothing pro-town. All game. Because SA is a townie and the wagon on her is to defend you.

Concise, but better than using words you don't understand I guess.
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Post Post #284 (isolation #15) » Tue Nov 03, 2009 2:14 pm

Post by ekiM »

dramonic yesterday wrote:I'm getting more a newbtown vibe than newbscum vibe from SA.
dramonic wrote:
ekiM wrote:It helps that I have a pro-town read on SA.
I'm baffled by this. What has SA did that could potentially come off as protown???
How can you have had a town vibe from SA yesterday and now be "baffled" that someone could have a town read on her? Please explain.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #16) » Tue Nov 10, 2009 4:43 am

Post by ekiM »

Crap, I have been so fucking overwhelmed IRL the last week or so. Doesn't look like you're looking to replace me, so I'm going to catch up now/within a few hours.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #17) » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:34 am

Post by ekiM »

Hypothetically speaking, I wouldn't hide on N0. Tonight I would hide with dramonic.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #18) » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:45 am

Post by ekiM »

Oh I did say don't claim for N0, but I guess nobody listened? It helps scum rule people out as hider. Oh well.
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Post Post #417 (isolation #19) » Tue Nov 10, 2009 9:52 am

Post by ekiM »

OK so first I'm going to go back and explain what I was up to back on page 12.

I had a pro-town read on SA. I thought hewitt was anti-town at best and fairly likely scum. So I decided to push him hard to see what reaction I got from him and others. I didn't get much from hewitt, but dramonic blatantly contradicted himself. See post 284. His explanation in 285 doesn't wash---how could he be BAFFLED that I had a pro-town read if he had one himself until he did an in-depth reading? This just doesn't ring true at all. I think dramonic is scum, this is the biggest tell I saw so far today.




I don't know what the fuck RayFrost is talking about in 301.
RayFrost wrote:ITT, ekiM and those on SA's side say that all on the side of hewitt are obv scum
No, nay, never.
Scien wrote:I see Charter doing his typical over zealous townie routine, which yes is easy to fake, but I believe is unlikely that that is happening at the moment.
Why?




SA claims too early. Facepalm. We don't lynch him today now, that would be very dumb. Watcher watches him tonight.




Conclusions:

anti-town: greg and hewitt
scum: dramonic

We can lynch greg or hewitt today but I'd rather dramonic. Who all agrees?

unvote; Vote: dramonic
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Post Post #420 (isolation #20) » Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:23 am

Post by ekiM »

Meh, if he claimed vanilla then it's better to lynch him than risk running up a power role. I can't read people who play the newbie card anyway.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #21) » Tue Nov 10, 2009 10:23 am

Post by ekiM »

Any reason to wait?

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