[OLD] Open Setup Ideas and Discussion

This forum is for discussion of individual Open Setups, including theoretical balance.
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Post Post #6908 (isolation #0) » Tue Apr 15, 2014 11:01 pm

Post by chamber »

In post 6907, Hoopla wrote:the point still stands that the goon is better placed to not take the traitor into lylo anyway.
Eeeeeh. You kind of have to assume people can lynch better than random to think mafia is a game at all, and that reduces the 66% number but increases the 50% number, I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers worked out pretty even.
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Post Post #6910 (isolation #1) » Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:11 am

Post by chamber »

In post 6907, Hoopla wrote:
In post 6905, Bicephalous Bob wrote:the traitor should just self-vote in lylo
my understanding of the rules is that a 1-1 endgame with a goon/townie would result in a tie, as neither team has achieved their win condition and can't improve upon the situation. so, the traitor doesn't really gain anything by self-voting in lylo. the point still stands that the goon is better placed to not take the traitor into lylo anyway.
Wait, if 1-1 is a tie, doesn't the mafia have to take the traitor with him or the best he can do is tie?
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Post Post #6958 (isolation #2) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 6:54 am

Post by chamber »

In post 6957, Mr. Flay wrote:11:2 is theoretically balanced in Mountainous Forum Mafia.
Based on what theory? town gets destroyed using random lynches in 11:2. You want like 15:2 to be remotely even.
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Post Post #6960 (isolation #3) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:12 am

Post by chamber »

In post 6959, Mr. Flay wrote:EV? (which Forum Mafia consistently does worse than)
The ev of 11:2 is like 23% chance town win. (I'm going off memory here, its definitely not 50%)
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Post Post #6961 (isolation #4) » Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:30 am

Post by chamber »

just simulated it again quickly.

~23% was 10:2. 11:2 is more like 40%, but additions in 2 after that have really bad diminishing returns, takes 17:2 to make it even.
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Post Post #7650 (isolation #5) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 12:11 am

Post by chamber »

I don't think anyone on MS will be able to intuit how balanced this setup is and that math needs to be run. Too many unusual elements. With that said, my intuition says this setup is massively scum sided.

3/16 is a little light in terms of pure numbers on the mafia team, but a doublekill is insanely powerful, the doctors collectively only add up to about a real doctors worth of power, and the tracker is highly gimped by both the fruit vendor and the fact that doctors will be trying to target people that die and failing to look different from mafia when successful 2/3rds of the time. The only way I see this being balanced is if the open nature of the setup makes 5 named townies have much more value than I anticipate.
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Post Post #7654 (isolation #6) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:52 am

Post by chamber »

The fruit vendor is almost surely added town power.
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Post Post #7655 (isolation #7) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:54 am

Post by chamber »

In post 7651, wgeurts wrote:There's a 26.7% chance of a kill being blocked night 1.


Your math seems bad to me (so please go through it) but even assuming thats accurate that means that 3/4s of the time there are 2 kills. Do you understand how OP 2 kills are?
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Post Post #7658 (isolation #8) » Sun Oct 26, 2014 6:13 am

Post by chamber »

I think it would functionally be higher than that. (kills aren't random so doc attempts wouldn't be either), still terrible for the town though.
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Post Post #7679 (isolation #9) » Mon Oct 27, 2014 8:08 am

Post by chamber »

In post 7675, wgeurts wrote:Mate, I've already reported you and now I see this.
For info he sent: "Ghandi is a disgrace to humans..so are you." Via pm.


Hes already banned. Alt of an old banned user.
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Post Post #8243 (isolation #10) » Thu Jun 18, 2015 3:17 pm

Post by chamber »

In post 8239, Annadog40 wrote:I was wondering, would this game be aloud in normal?

Survivor/Rainbow Goo/Lightning rod/Bulletproof – 1
Mafia Goon – 1
Mafia Roleblocker – 2
Town Doctor – 1
Town Tracker – 1
Town Cop – 1
Town Vigilantie – 1
Vanilla Town – 1

If two players are Lightning rods, then they will target the player closes to them on the initial player list. If their is an even amount of space, then it will be randomly chosen.


This setup has 3 mafia and a survivor, it only has 9 players. What the fuck.
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Post Post #8245 (isolation #11) » Thu Jun 18, 2015 3:45 pm

Post by chamber »

My expectation for a 9 player setup would be 7 town and 2 mafia. 5 town, 3 mafia and a survivor is insane. What if they try and lynch the vig day 1? Town loses almost gauranteed.
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Post Post #8248 (isolation #12) » Fri Jun 19, 2015 11:11 am

Post by chamber »

Ah, I'm sorry. I was thinking nexus I think. The lightning rod is on constantly? This setup is probably worse now not better because the rainbow goo element will actually happen.
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