Blitz 26: Maintaining Law, Order... (Game Over)

[Almost50]

BIG PROPOSAL: Everyone announces their target going into night. This limits scum's options. If they activate their PGO, we'll have a fairly good idea of where they shot, or didn't shoot. There can be a false positive, or scum wifoming and trying to create a false positive, but we can use our intuition for this, especially if the jailkeepers also do this.

I thought about it when I got my role PM, but it didn't work out too well in my mind.

HOWEVER, I may just sheep you on this if I lean town on you.

Now, seriously.. I'm signing in and Titus is already @ L-2?? I mean, RC is not even in the game, so what gives?

VOTE: pignash

Just bc

[Almost50]

ranger why arent you on the titus wagon?

One point on the red column already.
By the time Ranger signed in Titus had already been voted 4 times. Why would anybody put someone on L-1 before everybody even signed in? It would then be easy for someone to sign in late, hammer Titus & say "Oh, I didn't check before I voted. Sorry."

[Almost50]

In my mind; the best play scheme I could come up with is to pick 5 players to target, and each to be targeted by 2 of us. This way we know if only one died that it was not the PGO thing. If both die then the target is confirmed scum.

In other words, I think this will force scum not to load their guns on N1, so we will only lose one town player for the NK, but it gives us 2 confirmed townies through both of our PRs.

Any remarks are welcome (and strongly recommended)

[Almost50]

Explain, please. How are they "not going to go along with it" and how does that make it fail?

What I understood (and I could be reading this completely wrong) is they will not announce their target(s)? Or they will not visit said targets.

If the former: 8 of us announcing their targets will force the 2 scum to do the same. Otherwise, they'd be obvious to us w/o even the need for confirmation.

If the latter, sure they won't. However, we will still have just one NK if NO NK, which will probably help.

For the plan to work though, we need both our PRs to NOT claim and not give hints of themselves for the opening 2 days & nights. We might also need to opt for a no-lynch at least for D1 to keep the equilibrium in the town's favour. It will mostly be a night-game, so to speak.

But you're welcome to clarify if I misunderstood.

[Almost50]

I don't like trying to outsmart the setup and starting these conversations only serves to stop us from getting started scum hunting I think.

You wouldn't think that way if you were a cop and wanted to make sure if you got a positive read that it will be announced to the town whether you make it through the night or not.

My idea is all about providing sufficient cover for out PRs (and especially the cop) to work more efficiently.

[Almost50]

@lane: Just because it didn't happen doesn't mean it cannot happen, and just because I/you didn't see it happen doesn't mean it didn't happen. Better safe than sorry, so let's not be reckless/careless.

[Almost50]

@Persy: My plan included a NO LYNCH on the first day. We enter N1 as 8 vs 2, and the scum cannot both arm bc it would mean 3 vs 2 entering D2 with BOTH SCUM confirmed. Automatic town win in other words. Now, even if only one arms we lose 3 town players at night, but automatically lynch one scum on D2, so entering N2 with 5 vs 1.

So, effectively we will enter D2 with 7 vs 2 (one confirmed town to the cop but yet unknown to the rest of us). And we get the game going as we see fit with a slight advantage.

So, the plan was designed to force the scum to NOT get armed on N1, thus giving the cop at least one result, unless the mafia are extremely lucky and they do target the cop on N1.

OK.. since the majority seems against it, I will no longer bring it up. It was just an idea that I saw fit to discuss. I thought going into D2 with one death & one confirmed looked much better than 2 deaths & one confirmed.

[Almost50]

@Titus: What's the difference between a NL on D1 + 1 NK & a mislynch on D1 & no NK? Except we know it'd be 1/9 chance to have a no NK (only if the JK targets the mafia member assigned to do the kill), so it's actually a mislynch AND a NK.

Lynching on D1 is a good idea >IN GENERAL< but there are exceptions, and I consider this setup to be one of them IF we were to follow my proposed plan. Otherwise, my plan is flawed for the very reason Persy brought up.

Now if you think a NL is such a horrible proposition regardless, then I welcome you to lynch whomever you see fit to lynch. Just keep in mind the probability of lynching scum is the same as lynching a PR (which is also the case in a matrix 6 beginners game) but in this setup the mafia can have multiple NKs which WILL come in play starting N2 and beyond.

[Almost50]

I disagree with any plan in any game that attempts to game the setup. The simple answer is that with scum listening it's like trying to plan the landings at Normandy with the Germans listening. Even when I agree to the plans made by players during the day I usually don't follow them (as evidence by a recently ended town game of mine where I claimed vig and wasn't suppose to shoot at night at the command of other players but did anyway)

Again, you're talking of thing "in general", while we are in a very special case.

Let's say I announce targeting X and you announce targeting Y. We both get killed. The town had 2 suspects and one of them is scum for sure, bc while one of us might've died for the factional kill the other must've died for the PGO thing.

Now if you announce targeting Y but actually target Z, you're leaving the town with 2 suspects (X & Y) who could very well both be town while you dies for Z's PGO action. In other words, you'd be misleading the town.

Now NOT announcing your target, if we get 2 NK's we still wouldn't benefit from your death. For all we know, you could've targeted just about anyone in the game including the one I targeted (which would make them scum for sure bc they harvested 2 of us in one night), but we wouldn't know.

However, for the sake of argument.. how do you propose we play this out to give the town a better chance of winning? Let's say nobody announces their target, and we end up with -say- 3 NKs. Now what??

[Almost50]

VOTE: Almost
That's L-2

@Pignash & Titues: Since you're both my biggest scum-reads (which is the only thing I happen to agree with Ranger on her reads) I'm going to try to help you both to get lynched one after the other.

Oh, btw.. I found a flaw in the each one visits the one below/above scheme. What if we have a NK on N1?

For the town this could mean: (a) the JK targeted the mafia killer (thus effectively RB'd them), (b) the JK targeted the target of the mafia (thus effectively Dr'd them), OR (c) the mafia played a no NK gambit.

HOWEVER, if the mafia DID submit a kill they would know the JK to be one of two players; the one that visited the killer and the one that visited their intended NK.

The problem here is the town doesn't know the JK while the mafia have already narrowed down their options to 2 = Mafia will gain more info than the town.

I would request that everybody imagine they are the mafia and try to figure out how they will play it out under different propositions, and then flip back to their town mindset and figure the best way to counter the mafia play. (Now this is turning more to a game of chess).

P.S. I will reiterate, just for the record: If I do get lynched my biggest scum read in pignash, my 2nd is Titus. Lucku comes a distant third.

My town reads are Persy, Ranger and lane. Null on the other 3.

[Almost50]

Looks like it's going to come down to a random lynch at this rate

I don't think so. They're targeting the one who's trying to break their play. It's in their best interest to mislynch so that they get the upper hand already. The idea of a NL freaks them out, and here's why:

Mislynch on D1, then both get armed AND perform their factional NK on N1 = 4 dead townies already. We enter D2 with 4 vs 2 but we have 3 suspects. A mislynch on either D2 or D3 gives them the win, and especially so if they get lucky nailing the JK in the first 4.

[Almost50]

In fact.. why would I give them the chance to get to their mislynch when I could help push on one of them already??

UNVOTE: Almost
VOTE: Titus

[Almost50]

I will repeat my request: Please try to put yourself in the mafia shoes for a minute and figure out your best play in various situations and their probable outcome(s): visit in pairs (only covers 5 players on N1), visit in singles (announced) & random visits (unannounced). Once you've decided on the mafia best play (from your own point of view) switch back to town mindset and figure out the best way to counter this.

P.S. You don't need to share all the details. In fact, no need to even share the final deduction you reach for now. Just keep it in mind for later today.

Thank you

[Almost50]

That's really bad. You lose a lot of credibility with a self vote.

Yes, that was stupid of me. I wasn't thinking straight. I couldn't sleep, came back to check, found the two scum trying to use the NL proposition out of context & got carried away. SORRY.

But how about this: Lynch Titus today, if she flips scum we lynch pignash tomorrow. If she flips town lynch me tomorrow. How's that?

[Almost50]

My case is they have no case. I know Titus is much better than that.
As for pignash.. "I don't like trying to outsmart the setup" bothers me. Why is it we have an OPEN SETUP on this one then? What would've been the difference if it was a closed setup if we were not supposed to use our knowledge of the exact setup? (And when I say "we" I mean either alignment. Only the mafia will not discuss it here in the open with the rest of us).

I feel both are trying their best to force a mislynch, and in this setup a mislynch could have serious consequences, my friend. With the potential of having up to 5 NKs we might as well consider it somewhat of a MyLo already. "Hope for the best, but expect the worst" comes to mind.

[Almost50]

OK, why are we still setup speccing?

We're NOT setup "speccing" bc we -surprise surprise- ALREADY KNOW the setup.
We are trying to figure out the best way for town to play it to compensate for the knowledge the mafia already has about who IS town and who IS mafia.

Now if you still want to play it out as a mini-roulette game you can indeed have 10 numbered cards or pieces of paper, draw one and vote accordingly. I do not treat the game of mafia the same way I would treat roulette or a penalty-shoot out for that matter. Hell, EVEN in a PK shoot-out the manager would still pick his BEST 5 to take the kicks based on previous sessions of training (i.e. the manager WILL have a "plan" for the PK shoot-outs). Nobody picks their 5 PK takers randomly and just hope they will outscore the opposition.

[Almost50]

Almost, have you ever self-voted as town before?

No.

[Almost50]

@pisskop:

It doesn't matter now. I was not in my right set of mind. I could not sleep despite being in bed for hours.. I came on to try to wear my eyes out to finally get to sleep.. I found some skewed logic and pushing on me.. I felt both were scum, and I was hoping by me getting lynched you guys would actually open up your eyes and see that they're trying to block any chance of the town having a plan to play as a team. They both want it to be an individuals game where only they can collaborate with eachother in their private thread and drive the town crazy because the town will have nothing to build upon.

Did/do you notice we still have not agreed on how we're playing this out.. wait.. let me rephrase that: Did/do you notice YOU still have not agreed on how YOU're playing this out after my lynch? You cannot wait for the actual lynch to happen to agree on a plan you know, bc you simply cannot guarantee you will have enough time before the thread is locked for everybody to say their piece.

[Almost50]

Well, I do.. in open setups. In my mind this is why we have them as open setups, meaning we know exactly what roles are in play. I'm now tempted to use this same setup elsewhere just to see how a certain bunch of players (whom I claim to know well enough) will play it out. Too bad I've never modded a game myself though, so I just might leave it for later.

[Almost50]

I wouldn't mind a pignash lynch based on Persy/lane remarks. I do not know pignash myself, but I still read them as scum in this game. However, we don't have a wagon on them yet.

Titus is my other scum read, and she already is @ L-2, so I'm not going to switch my vote for now.

Lucky.. is a MUCH weaker scum read for me. I'm thinking they're the JJD/Nero in this game (this last phrase is mainly directed @ PK, for he knows exactly what I'm talking about). For the rest of you though .. how do I put this.. a town player who is too obsessed with their own self/ideas they practically lose all communication abilities with all parties.

My lynch pool consists of Titus & pignash. Not willing to chance it on anybody else today.

[Almost50]

NO offense intended, mate.

[Almost50]

My opinion hadn't changed so I hadn't posted. Am more suspicious of Persivul now.

OK, that helps .. NOT. Why do you suspect him?

[Almost50]

OK.. I will target Persy (the one below me after Titus is eliminated).

[Almost50]

Btw, I visited guilty last night.

Think we should claim so we know who else got targeted, but I'm assuming everyone targeted guilty

I visited Persy just as I said I would.

[Almost50]

wait I'm dumb, I might have been jailed

Actually; I would've done just that if I was the JK. No need to lose the cop whether it be for the PGO or the factional kill, and you were the obvious target.

[Almost50]

do you guys think 108-111 reads like scum to scum interaction?

Personally I did and still do, but I think it was you who said it was too outrageous or something ..

I agree pignash is my current top scum read, and lucky is still #2. Everyone else I'm reading town with various degrees.

[Almost50]

@Lucky: Who did you target last night?

[Almost50]

If you didn't think I was scum before, get ready for this:

I also forgot to submit a target. Checking with the mod to see who that means I visited.

OK... let's wait for the others to tell us who they targeted too. No rush. I'm most interested in pignash' target though.

[Almost50]

Oh, ok.. so that leaves PK (whom I'm assuming targeted GL???), Ranger, Lucky & pignash.

@Persy: It "might" show who everybody might've thought was a safe target since it was done w/o agreeing on a definite plan. There's no point in X (town) visiting Y (scum read of X) w/o even telling us who they will be targeting... I think.

P-edit: Oh, so Persy & I followed the proposed plan. OK.

[Almost50]

You too?
So, THREE random visits. Now please ask the mod who you targeted, and let us know.

[Almost50]

Are we helping scum to narrow down the possible JKs by claiming targets?

NOPE. We are deciding between only two now (at least from mine & GL's PoVs): pignash & Lucky (in that order), and it will help me decide if I knew who targeted whom. TRUST ME.

[Almost50]

Funny nobody visited ME, Ranger or PK (also lane & Dwlee, but I'm referring to the 3 GL said were confirmed to him in his last post before the thread got locked.)

[Almost50]

I'd better explain now: We only have one JK, right? Only they have reason to "mislead" us as to whom they visited. The others are TCVs and have no reason to mislead fellow townies.

Now, the JK themselves KNOW who they visited, and will also know every other townie is telling the truth, so they will have a better picture.

On the other hand, the scum doesn't really know who the JK is, so cannot take ANY of our target claims at face value.

The outcome: The JK will know who visited whom and will -probably- decide on the lynch (w/o appearing to be the one pushing for it, just in case we were lynching the wrong person).

P-edit: OK.. if both of you agree to this, then no problem. But I still want to know both my suspects targets if that's ok.

[Almost50]

Good. Now do you guys prefer to try and think it over or would you rather a no-brainer quick lynch? Bc -obviously- if we choose the latter then we vote pignash & get it over with. If we opt for the former though we need to create some discussion.

P-edit: THAT is what I'm getting at. Only the JK WILL tell us a lie, and only them will know it.

[Almost50]

You don't KNOW I targeted Persy. All you know is I say so, but it shouldn't matter to you.

Now if I'm TCV the JK knows it, and will know I'm telling the truth. HOWEVER, if

I

am the JK, then I'm NOT telling the truth bc I obviously jailed GL, but only

I

would know it. Not you, and not the scum.

[Almost50]

OKie dokie... intent to hammer then. And it's not even in waits for a claim. It's just to get the confirmation from other townies to go ahead.

[Almost50]

I dont think its piggy

Why not? Could you explain?

[Almost50]

*LOL*
Dwlee wants the honour of scoring the winner. OK.. I'll give you that out of courtesy.

P-edit:

@GL: I was waiting on you & Ranger, actually.

[Almost50]

First : Let's agree what happened on D2 was the most reckless town play ever. That speed lynch didn't only turn to be a mislynch, but didn't give us any additional info to help us reassess our reads.

All it ever served (to my POV) is bring back most of the town to the suspects list.

Now I know there's only ONE scum left. However, Dwlee, lane, and even PK all acted funny, and knowing -at least- two of them are town I'm tempted to say: SHAME ON YOU.

Now, for the real deal:

I still want PK & Lucky's targets from YESTERDAY. I'll repeat.. I'm not interested in who you visited on N2. I want your N1 visits. Both of you, please.

[Almost50]

I'm trying to assess that through the N1 visits, but with missing data the picture will never be complete.

[Almost50]

I didn't choose a target night 1 because I forgot and I didn't choose a target night 2 because lol random.

So you already asked mod and got your answers for both nights? OK... noted. Thanks.

[Almost50]

OK, mate. If you were KING; who would you sentence to die today?

[Almost50]

I'm here.. I just don't know what to say or do at this particular time.

To me PK has been very elusive. I note his refusal to claim target(s) when everybody else has. Now even if he was the JK, does it really look like THIS is what's going to stop the scum from finding him out? ABSOLUTELY NOT. So, I'm now thinking maybe he's trying to play with our minds w/o really RCing so that the real JK will not come out and CC him.

Also -for those who like stats- he was 3rd to vote pignash (9 players remained at the time). I'm no big fan of stats myself, but just thought I'd bring it up.

My main two problems with him:
1- In 285 he says he played with pignash as scum before. Well, this he never mentioned before, despite it having been brought up by Persy & Lane long ago. PK's announcement was in response to Dwlee's 284, yet all Dwlee said was that he did play with Scum!pignash before (i.e. didn't confirm this was his scum play).

2- I hated this post so much:

Well, Im not expecting much out of Ranger in terms of new content. Theres honestly not much to say.

Like, I think we all KNOW Ranger will always have something to contribute, and especially so when she's as good as confirmed town.

So, unless someone can talk me out of it:

VOTE: pisskop

[Almost50]

*Takes a deep breath*

Well, considering I'm at a loss, and the fact Persy is indeed a very good scum player (as proven in HtGAwMM)

VOTE: Persivul

[Almost50]

@lane:

Well, Ranger did lay a compelling case on him, so my personal stance is yes.

Also, I wouldn't want to contemplate much on the said mod error, but if what I think is true then it still looks like a not-so-dangerous bet.

[Almost50]

So I fucked up last night and misread lane's PM for his night action. he wanted to JK lucky and I put it down as guilty. Guilty should have been killed.

That's exactly what I figured. Well, not the GL kill, but that lane was the JK. GL said he got no result when targeting lane, and lane sounded genuinely shocked (bc he obviously did NOT block GL).

I don't think it would have changed much though bc:

RANGER IS AWESOME