Newbie 521: Game over, SCUM WINS!

[Thok]

/confirm

[Thok]

Hi all, and welcome to Mafiascum!

Random vote: Xotxm

for having an xcess number of x's.

[Thok]

Twister, any reason for the experience question?

Godot, you're ignoring the effect of the mafia roleblocker, which means that a cop shouldn't claim just because the doc claims (if he does, scum could block the doctor and kill the cop, or vice versa).

Sierra, you're right that hitting mafia day 1 is fairly important in this set up (even getting the goon dead is important, since the mafia roleblocker can't both block and kill if the goon is dead). You're also right that townies shouldn't falsely claim their roles ever.

On a similar note, if you are close to being lynched and you are town, it's more helpful to try to refute the arguements against you then to such claim "Look at me, I'm a vanilla townie, you don't want to lynch me or you'll lose."

[Thok]

Godot: No, I was refering to another forum. I could link you but that would be useless as it is a private forum and you wouldn't see anything. (This is how I found mafia and searched for this).

Franzie: It was everyone placed their vote, they were split 4-2-1. The victim was a townie, so perhaps it was not too thoroughly thought about...but I assumed all games would go something a bit like that. I think that pushing at 2 real days while we are still on day one is a bit overdoing it though.

You might try taking a look at a couple of other day 1's in newbies here to get a feel for the page length/time commitment. (Also, theoretically the point of day 1 is to get more information to help find scum on later days although with the extra power roles that may be less important in this set up.)

You also need to realize that you are playing with a different crowd of people, and that some players here have jobs and stuff and aren't on the internet 24/7, which slows down the rate of posting somewhat.

unvote

as I'm getting an inexperienced town vibe from you rather than an inexperienced scum vibe.

[Thok]

I'm seriously tempted to ask Xtoxm who his scum partner is.

(I've seen too many newbies flake out like this to take his claim seriously.)

If you feel the game is taking too long (it's only been three days), you probably should get replaced. There's no shame in it.

Alternatively, list who you think is scum, and why. It may not get people to vote, but the discussion will help you feel involved in the game.

vote Kison

as a bit of lurker pressure.

[Thok]

vote Kison

as a bit of lurker pressure.

FOS Thok

. I find it funny how you're accusing anyone of lurking when you yourself have only posted just as much.

And when I made that post, Kison had made only 3 posts, two of which were one liners and one was a comment about roleclaiming, while I had made 4 posts (which is comparable to 3 other people in the game not including me or Kison), most of which were longer than Kison's and which actually had some content.

Part of the point of a lurker vote is to get people to talk so we can evaluate them.
----------------

Twister, you seem to be following me around. You've now cast a second vote on the person I random voted and FOSed the person I lurker voted.

FOS Twister

[Thok]

unvote Kison, vote Twister

If you are concerned with Godot's vote, and you thought it was an attempt to put Kison at lynch -1, why are you keeping your vote on Kison still?

[Thok]

Twister, you need to put {quote="Thok"}, not {quote "Thok"}

As for your questions, it's a matter of you trying to have your cake and eat it too. It's inconsistent for you to express massive concerns about a vote and then not to retract your vote also. Yes, there's probably no risk somebody coming along and immediately hammering, but there's also possible risk of outing a power role, and if Kison stays at lynch -1 long enough, scum will find some way to mae up a reason for putting a fourth vote on him.

Since people seem to be doing lists of suspicions (which isn't that helpful, IMHO, as it can be a way to create fluff to work with), I guess I'll play along.

Twister: Um, yeah, I find Twister scummy. See above.

Xtoxm: As I've said, I feel his early outburst is from a frustrated townie. A frustrated mafia likely would have been louder, possibly would have self-voted, and possibly would have outed his partner.

Godot: Neutralish. Not fond of his veiled threats at Xtoxm, but seems unlikely to have a connection to Twister either.

Kison: Leaning townish, now that I've seen him post more and given that he was pushed to lynch -1.

Franzie: Seems townish. Style is comparable to Sierra's, but I see more attempts at manipulation by Sierra (see below).

Sierra: Noteworthy for starting the debate on roleclaiming and for generally being fairly theoretical. I noticed her vote and unvote of Franzie (and specifically the whole "It's not a serious vote" comment, which feels like a preemptive defense) which makes me feel Franzie's a bit more likely to be town and Sierra's a bit more likely to be scum.

[Thok]

Yes, but it felt like Twister felt you were at lynch -1.

(And now looking closer at her thread, it was Xotxm and not Godot Twister was reacting to). My point is that Twister's reaction didn't match up with his words.

[Thok]

Yes, but it felt like Twister felt you were at lynch -1.

(And now looking closer at her thread, it was Xotxm and not Godot Twister was reacting to). My point is that Twister's reaction didn't match up with his words.

Right. I'm more or less referencing you using it as a defense for me.

Fair enough. It's more Twister's reaction to thinking that you were at lynch -1 that makes you feel you are more likely protown anyways (on top of the feeling that he was following me around, which I mentioned earlier).

Obviously, this doesn't hold if Twister is town.

[Thok]

The lurker returns, and immediately posts a vote without much provocation. I think this should set off warning bells for everyone. He posted an analysis, like everyone else did, probably just because he saw comments on him being a sparse poster in everyone else's analysis. I'm now more sure (>95%) about Thok than Xtoxm, so

Do you know what's funny about this post?

At the time you made it, I had (and in fact still have) more posts in the game than you did (I also had the same number of posts as Sierra). I'm willing to admit that your posts were both longer and possibly more regular spaced out than I did, but you should consider at least partially check you facts before posting.

[Thok]

Also, I don't care about "needing little provocation" about my vote. If I see a what I thing is a scum tell, I'm going to act on it.

Do you really believe that a person thinking somebody is at lynch-1, and also disliking the supposed vote that put them at lynch-1, but yet not having any interest in unvoting them is playing consistently? If not, why do you think they're playing in this manner?

[Thok]

On a side comment: People seems to be confusing long analysis with good analysis. Just because people post a lot of words doesn't mean that they are correct, or that they are even honest. (Scum can make post by post analysis also.) That doesn't mean that analysis is a bad thing, but you need to take it with a grain of salt and also recognize that we are only on page 5.

In addition, often protown players do vote on things like gut instinct or vote without giving their reasoning or bandwagon. Lack of analysis doesn't always mean scummy.

(Also, too many 2000 word posts can clog up a game, since people get tired of reading everybody's treatise. It's helpful to summarize your ideas so that people know what you feel is important.)
---------------

As for Twister's defense: People seem to be missing the point of my argument. Reread post 86. Twister was both expressing suspicion of Xotxm because Twister thought Xtoxm put Kison at lynch -1.

In that scenario, natural reactions are
1. Twister could move a vote to Xtoxm, following up on this suspicion
2. Recognize the suspicion, but explain why he would keep his vote on Kison anyways.
3. Unvote, to give himself a chance to think about the situation

Twister did none of these things. What he did was to express suspicion Xtoxm but ignored it, leaving his vote on Kison. As I said, I find that unnatural; moreover, it gives Twister the ability to put pressure on both Xtoxm and Kison at the same time.

His response in 95 was "I gave real reasons, why should I unvote? Scum won't hammer. Other's won't vote him."

First of all, there's the possiblity I mentioned before that keep Kison at lynch -1 could force a roleclaim of a townie (and possibly of a power role).

Secondly, the other's won't vote/hammer only works if you believe all of Sierra/Franzie/Godot are town, which is a fairly strong assumption early in the game.

Thirdly, it's possible that a townie could convince themselves to hammer or could even hammer by accident in that situation. (Unlikely here, but possible.)

Fourth, the subtext of Twister's argument is "I'm the only person who's vote on Kison isn't suspicious. You suspicious people should remove your vote first." But if Twister was actually suspicious of me/Xtoxm, then he should be unvoting Kison, as our votes would be an indication that he is likely town.

---------------

Post 74: Looks like sarcasm directed at Kison, about the fact that most of us find xtoxm suspicious. (Unrelated note: If everyone finds him to be some degree of suspicious, why aren't we talking about this? We should be putting pressure on to try to get him to either slip up or not slip up, reducing the suspicion against him. If he DOES end up being scum, maybe he'll reveal his partner with some pressure.)

First of all, not everybody finds xtoxm suspicious. (I've said on several occasions that I get a protown vibe from him. Granted most people find me suspicious also, but that's a separate issue.)

Secondly, if 6 people find somebody suspicious in a seven player game, it's possible that player is scum (and his partner is distancing). It's also possible that the person in question is a suspicious looking townie, and that both scum are among the six attacking him.

[Thok]

I've been out of it with respect to this game. Feel free to accuse me of lurking, because I have been putting this game on the back burner.

I should have a big post by tonight at the earliest (about 6-7 hours from now), tomorrow at the latest.

[Thok]

Responding to Twister:

Fourth, the subtext of Twister's argument is "I'm the only person who's vote on Kison isn't suspicious. You suspicious people should remove your vote first." But if Twister was actually suspicious of me/Xtoxm, then he should be unvoting Kison, as our votes would be an indication that he is likely town.

First of all, that is not a quote, so please don’t use quotation makes to make it look like that is exactly what I said. My intentions were to see if anyone would react suspiciously, and I believe that goal was met…

First, it's clear that I wasn't quoting you; I would have used the quote tags for that and I specifically said that I was pointing out the subtext of your comment.

Secondly, the point of that paraphrase was to explain to others why I found your comment scummy.

Thirdly, claiming that "Your intentions were to see if people would act suspiciously" isn't really an argument. You could always claim after the fact that's what you were trying to do, so it's a meaningless argument. Any play can be justified by "I wanted to see if people would react suspiciously to it." Why should we think that's actually your motivations, rather than scum trying to push suspicion on multiple people?

Thirdly, you seem to take the possibility to of a hammer in that scenario way too lightly. I mean, suppose hypothetically that scum were two out of three of Sierra/Franzie/Godot in that situation. A hammer in that scenario could be a decent play as people would have focused on the people on the Kison wagon and the scum who didn't hammer would have a decent chance of winning.
-------------------

As for scum pairs, I don't have a good feel for who would be scum with Twister (who it should be obvious is my top suspect) if he is scum, although his actions suggest that Kison and Xtoxm aren't scum with Twister.

If Twister isn't scum, then I'd look at Xtoxm/Kison again.

[Thok]

Thok, in your last post you said you thought I was town, now you're saying you think i'm mafia, inconsistent.

I said if Twister

isn't

scum, I would look at you again as possible mafia.

[Thok]

Do note though, that this is all based off the assumption that Twister is scum. If Twister isn't scum this would just look like a townie afraid of a lynch.

Why couldn't a hypothetical town Xtomx be afraid of a mislynch even if Twister was scum? It's not like Xtomx would know Twister's alignment.

[Thok]

I'd like to hear from Thok. The guy could be mafia and we'd never see it because he's been letting the rest of us fight.

I've already got my vote where I think it's most useful, and I've repeatedly explained why I think Twister is scummy. I've also said why I'm not interested in an Xtoxm lynch. There isn't that much else interesting going on in the thread.

(To be fair, I've been slacking off on my MS duties the last few days. Grading a final followed by a few days of laziness.)

@Franzie-we've had both "Thok put pressure on Kison to get him to post" (my vote on Kison) and "Kison put pressure on Thok to get him to post" (Kison's post wanting me to post more). Is there a reason your reaction to those events are drastically different?

[Thok]

Well somethings killing this game and I don't know whta it is

It's the holidays. Hopefully once we get past New Years, people will start posting more.

(I'm currently waiting for Franzie to reply to my last post.)

[Thok]

Looking over what happened yesterday, I think a

vote Franzie

is in order.

[Thok]

Hmm. I need to do a reread to think about stuff.

Remember this is lynch or lose, so don't cast a vote unless you are really sure about who is scum.

[Thok]

Actually, I just realised something...If Sierra is scum, today he would surely try to be lynching me. Everyone agreed i've been scummy...Except Thok. Thok has stated his confidence that i'm town throughout. If Sierra is scum, why is Thok still alive?

*Closes eyes*

Vote Thok

Huh? Ignoring the fact that this is a really quick vote at LOL, and the fact that if you're scum you probably wouldn't want to kill me, you've also completely ignored the existence of a doctor. Scum could easily have thought I was likely to be doc-protected the last couple of nights after I got Twister lynched.

[Thok]

Thok, how about you place your vote on me and let Sierra decide how this ends? You may as well, cos if Sierra is scum the he wins when he comes on.

How about I wait until Sierra actually shows up before I make any assumptions about her? If you are town, I can still hope that you'll come to your senses and unvote so that we can actually discuss things before voting. That's much easier to do if my vote isn't cast.

If Sierra posts without voting me, I will be voting you.

[Thok]

First of all

vote Xtoxm

.

Thok's vote on Twister was a distancer. He was probably hoping for the lynch to go elsewere, remember how Godot hammered quickly? There was no chance for Twister to defend himself. So Thok had his vote on him to make himself look innnocent if he died.

This is silly. I was attacking Twister when nobody else was interested in the case on her, and kept pressing on her despite the fact that nobody else wanted to believe my case. If I was scum I could have tried to move my vote off twister at multiple times when Twister was at only one or two votes. The fact that my vote was continually on Twister and that I kept pressing on her was the reason he got lynched.

Remember how Thok also submarined most of day 1? Make himself look disinterested in the game, to make him look vanilla townie, when he has the biggest role in the game (mafia roleblocker)

If by submarined you mean "was voting for scum" most of day 1. Then yes.

[Thok]

Thanks Xtoxm. For what it's worth, my reason for killing people wasn't to try to set you up, but to kill off power roles. I was fairly sure Godot was the cop when I targeted him and I had a fifty-fifty shot between Sierra and Kison being a doc [and in that scenario a Kison kill was better for me than a Sierra kill]. By claiming mafia you essentially claimed "not power role", as you would have been so willing to give up as a cop or doc.

[Thok]

How did you know Godot was cop? Personally, on day one I thought Twister was Cop, Sierra doc. (well, at the ned of it anyway). With Godot/Kison scum pair, and you and Franzie as the other VT's.

Godot was playing fairly tight and looking for reasons to vote. If you check out Jeep's common tells page, that's a fairly strong cop tell. I wasn't certain of it, but I figured there was a fairly high probability of him being cop.