Newbie 981 ~ Over

[Adrien C]

Hello everyone, my name is Adrien. I will be taking a bit of time dissecting this before I say anything worth anything. If any of you have any questions, fire away....

[Adrien C]

I'm going to analyze a little bit more in the morning, but I will say one person did strike me immediately. I'll reveal who later along with my big ole' explanation.

[Adrien C]

posting to avoid prod... nothing new to comment on really... though I am waiting on adrien c's promised synopsis and reveal of who he thinks is scummy

Yeah, church was longer than usual then family business. I'm still going to analyze the entire thread later.

Active lurking much?

[Adrien C]

My suspect list (in this order):
Tangion

VOTE: no lynch

No lynch on Day 1... *facepalm*

What is the suspicion on the doc anyway why does so many there scum?

Defending the guy who flipped scum. Tsk, tsk...

Well unfortunately there Is not much I can do I don't know how I would convince everyone o
otherwise all I can do is play it out and see what happens I hope that even if I die that

it helps me win in the long run.

Notice the bold. Scum is the faction that the winners don't have survive to win in the Newbie games.

Well as far as him following my votes I can only think that maybe he might have been trying to divert attention from his real partner to me. And as far as asking questions went I decided I'd wait and see what happened to see if I could learn more I had suspicion that the way mothrax and andy were going back and forth it may have been a scum ploy blame each other so no one suspects them but now I know that only one of them could be scum since dr was scum and right now I'm leaning toward andy. I'm still relatively new and haven't really learned to much strategy that's part of why I voted no lynch I wasn't sure who to vote for and never thought of lynch as the only real weapon the town has as andy pointed out to me I didn't change it cause I figured as the only one voting it I would have plenty of time to change it if need be past.

That I can't explain anything that dr did

AtE, newbie card (I so did that on my first game and I was scum), and I'm uncomfortable with the bolded part.

They put that in cuz he posted so she edited him out and I was thinking of changing my vote to hammer but 2 things stopped me 1 I was afraid of being night killed if I was right and 2 well I'm new enough

I was also afraid of being wrong and being suspected of being scum but it appears that that happened anyway.

You should NEVER be afraid of being wrong or suspected if you actually are town. If you actually are lynched, your fellow townies can get some information from your flip, and if you are innocent, you know you have nothing to hide.

I'm town

Anyone can say that.

Basic analysis: Newbie? Yes. Town? I'm not so sure. Enough evidence is there to suspect him in being scum. I'm not going to call for a hammer on him just yet, so I'm not going to vote for him just yet. But when the time comes, I will probably be willing to hammer once we get to that point.

---------------------
Andy: (First page posts on his ISO I don't feel like quoting)

Active lurking. You're an SE, you should definitely be scumhunting. Active lurking like this from an SE definitely pings on my scumdar.

(The questions then more active lurking...I'm facepalming as I'm reading this...)

(Second page, a useless post at least concerning the game followed by more active lurking)

Hm. I was expecting a SE/IC to die.

IDK how they find out who the Doc is.

:/
Gut vote before I head out on my V/LA.
Vote: Tangion
After Dr.'s screw up, Tangion is #1 suspect for his scumbuddy, then mothrax.

See you guys in a couple days.

Newbies, learn from this...usually if someone congrats the doc for protecting the right guy or going "Aww, that sucks" when a PR goes down, that person has a (I believe it's) 60% chance of being scum.

(Posts being way too eager to get Tanny hammered)

Basic Analysis: If Tanigon flips town and nothing happens to change my mind, this is where I'd go.'

Any questions?

[Adrien C]

Active lurking. You're an SE, you should definitely be scumhunting. Active lurking like this from an SE definitely pings on my scumdar.
(The questions then more active lurking...I'm facepalming as I'm reading this...)
(Second page, a useless post at least concerning the game followed by more active lurking)

You'll understand what I'm doing later on.

I'm counting on it.

Newbies, learn from this...usually if someone congrats the doc for protecting the right guy or going "Aww, that sucks" when a PR goes down, that person has a (I believe it's) 60% chance of being scum.

I'm actually curious though. Why would the random scum player target a random player instead of a IC/SE, for that player to flip Doc? Without a claim (or tells I can see).

I'm not saying your post was incorrect. I'm just saying your post pinged on my scumdar.

No questions, since you are willing to hammer.

Fixed your tags. :3 ~Kitty

[Adrien C]

I want a claim before I hammer. I tell you what, if there's no post from Tanny in the next 24 hours, I'll hammer then.

[Adrien C]

Fine. I'll hammer, but you're on my list if he flips town, Andy.

VOTE: Tanigon

[Adrien C]

Same reasons as my first big post, I'll start things off for this phase with this. VOTE: Andrius

[Adrien C]

Unvote

I think I just read between the lines of what you are saying, Andy.

[Adrien C]

Maybe a random lynch won't be so random if we analyze this more carefully and find a better person to lynch, I'm sure our odds will do better.

[Adrien C]

Thank God for the back-up mod. Andy, who out of the three are you most suspicious of?

[Adrien C]

I've noticed that a person's gut ends up being pretty accurate, but I want to be safe. I'm gonna do some rereading myself.

[Adrien C]

JNTP, we're not saying we're lynching you. We're not going to randomly lynch someone.

[Adrien C]

@JNTP, JVW, and Mothraz
Which among you do you think is most likely to be scum?

[Adrien C]

That makes a little since. I think you need to be more blunt with your claim in order for mothrax to understand what's going on.

[Adrien C]

EBWOP: a little sense*

[Adrien C]

I feel like an idiot...

unvote

still not sure I believe it but there is reasonable evidence... also, it was kinda obvious what you were doing once I started looking for it...
but there should be one other answer... unless... hmmmm... now I have to reread and ponder...

It took a minute to understand what he was talking about too.

[Adrien C]

We have an hour over two weeks to figure out who out of the three are scum. JVW, who do you think might be scum?

[Adrien C]

Hmm...I'll have to think about this one. Mothrax could be on to something...

[Adrien C]

JNTP, chance to claim.

[Adrien C]

Woo! Mod is back!!

[Adrien C]

Like it wasn't obvious...

[Adrien C]

The more and more I think about it, the more uneasy I am that Wolfe just threw JNTP at L-1 without too much discussion...

[Adrien C]

We have about 12 days to figure out who would be the best lynch.

[Adrien C]

Too much guessing and theorizing to go off that. JNTP...you can scum hunt anytime now.

[Adrien C]

He's most likely a cop. We already got a dead roleblocker and a dead doctor.

[Adrien C]

My bad. I thought Dr.Shiz was a RB.

[Adrien C]

we have a dead doc, no rb... I think his speculation on the rb was that since he was a cop, there was an RB which is why he has no investigation from either n1 or n2... whichever...

That thought crossed my mind, actually. I dunno. With Andy being V/LA, we're not going to know for a while.

[Adrien C]

What page is that post on?

[Adrien C]

Aye. He must have been hinting that he was blocked once.

[Adrien C]

Nearly 24 hours without posts...come on, guys!!

[Adrien C]

You did see the post I made about how uneasy I am about Wolfy bringing you to L-1. You're not going to be lynched at the time being. Chill out with the AtE. I'm exploring all possibilities before I even think about who I'm shooting for. I just would like you to help with the discussion on who we need to string up.

[Adrien C]

Come on, guys. We need some more activity!!

[Adrien C]

I think I'm the only one alive here, Kitty.

[Adrien C]

@ Adrien - I don't see any logical way for you to be anything other than town. I don't understand your play, though. You don't want to end the day, fair enough, but you're not contributing anything other than 'come on guys!'

Yeah, sorry about that. I'm in two other games where things got heated so I was hoping some discussion amongst yourselves would help me come to a conclusion on who the last scum is.

I can kinda understand Andy's explanation on why he didn't target you. ICs usually don't live long.

And I'm noting JNTP's refusal to scum hunt and saying his role "doesn't allow him to". He saying he is scum?

[Adrien C]

Ok then, who do you believe is scum and give a legit reason. I don't want to mislynch here.

[Adrien C]

V/LA until Monday. Moving back into my dorm room this weekend. I might be able to check things on occasion in that time frame, but not much.

[Adrien C]

I'm having net problems at the dorm so I'm still semi-V/LA but that should be fixed soon.

[Adrien C]

To me, JNTP has a high probability of being newbtown. That being said, a scum flip on him would not surprise me one bit. Mothrax, I have a total neutral read on. It's a toss-up for you, Andy. But me, I'm not hammering unless we have to.

[Adrien C]

Adrien would have been around for the hammer...just sayin'.

[Adrien C]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa...WAY too much WIFOM to rush to do that...

[Adrien C]

There's another scenario, Andrius. I want to make sure I'm making the right decision before I choose.

[Adrien C]

JVW, I want to hear from you before I make my decision.

[Adrien C]

@Your side note: Congrats.

[Adrien C]

Well, this is my theory. If mothrax was your biggest scumread, why did you investigate him instead of JVW? Why didn't you die? Why did you keep me around since everyone knew I was town? Because you thought I was trusting you, correct? Doesn't work like that. You knew I was suspicious of you when the last day phase started. You, as a goon, knows there isn't a cop so you decided to claim it and try to sweeten me (your biggest opponent at the time) by confirming me as town. If I was trusting you, we'd go for a random shot in the dark with the other three. But uh-oh...what happens when you're alive the next day? You hope and prayed I'd stick to your side, the only reason I see for me surviving the night phase. If JVW was scum, you or I should be dead right now. He's an IC, he's not stupid.

I still want to see JVW's analysis post before coming to a final conclusion.

[Adrien C]

If I was fully committing to your lynch, I would have voted you already. I'm just going to explore all possibilities before rushing to a conclusion.

[Adrien C]

And seriously, dude...CALM THE HELL DOWN!! This is a game. Relax.

[Adrien C]

Not a fan of AtE, by the way.

[Adrien C]

JVW, hurry up and vote me. I want Adrien to hammer me, so you cap him once he kicks me off the stool.

AtE, dude.

[Adrien C]

Andrius, I give you one more post to defend yourself.

[Adrien C]

VOTE: Andrius