Newbie 769 - Game Over

[Toledo25]

Vote: Hero764

for having a questionable name.

[Toledo25]

CJMiller, you do understand that if lynching is our only shot of hitting scum, right? Mathematically:

Voting Randomly = 2/9 chance of hitting scum
No Lynch = 0/9 chance of hitting scum

That doesn't mean that we should vote randomly forever, and this day though... something will change.

He has a valid point. Also,if we don't vote and all do "No Lynch", then Day 2 will just be a Day 1 minus a townie. Once there is information, then it won't be random votings.

[Toledo25]

Vote: Hero764

for having a questionable name.

Why is it any more questionable than yours?

Hero

764

Does the word "hero" give off a sense off truthfulness, honesty, and general positive tone? Probably. But it can also be a deceitful title, and may be a cover up for a more sinister position. But yeah, it's a random vote, so I really don't have a real argument against him/her.

[Toledo25]

Adding to Artem, if you put someone at, say L-1, then that can be a dangerous move. And you're being a tad overly cautious.

[Toledo25]

Unvote: atticusgresko
Vote: Hero764 because I am with the general opinion that he is a mobster.

Only one person had reason to believe he was Mafia, I was just random voting. But you have provided clear reason for suspecting you.

Unvote
FOS Hero764
FOS CJMiller

I'd vote for CJMiller, but I don't want to rush and find out that he's a townie that made a really bad mistake. Though your at the top of mah list.

Hero because he's still a bit odd and defensive.

[Toledo25]

Adding to Artem, the Wiki contains an interesting page that shows the probability of the town winning based on different number of peoples.
Numbers, Part 1
As you can see, an even number of townies is better than an odd number of townies. Heck, townies do better than 9 townies. However, this relies on complete randomness and is purely mathematical, so it isn't perfect.

[Toledo25]

Meant to say "6 townies do better than 9 townies".

[Toledo25]

As you can see, an even number of townies is better than an odd number of townies.

It's not an issue of even vs. odd. A bigger number of townies is always better because it gives more flexibility in lynching. However, in LyLo, an odd number (i.e., there's exactly one more townie than there are mafia) is better because each townie has to consider fewer players.

Ok, that makes sense.

After a bit of self debating, I decided that he's just a rash and not-so-careful newb scum. So I think

Vote: CJMiller

will lynch a mafia member.

[Toledo25]

Just saying, I'm finding Feeres to be ever so slightly odd for a certain reason. I'm pretty sure the feeling will subside and it's me being paranoid, but it's something to keep in my personal memory. Heck, my reason barely has to do with what he means to say. But then the randomness of his random vote is a bit questionable.

And Tenchi has been actively pursuing Hero for quite a while now. Can't blame him
(he's too defensive), but his determination makes me feel like he was targeting him from the very beginning.

Also, I'd like to see what the quiet people have to say so far (Slaine Hayes + Hockeyruler)

[Toledo25]

Just as a heads-up people, I'm probably not going to be on much tomorrow night through Sunday. My mom's friend's family is coming over from New Jersey for Easter, so I doubt I'll be able to get on much. Though I should be able to get on a bit tomorrow. Just saying this so you don't think I've gone inactive.

[Toledo25]

Toledo88 needs to post something other than addendums to my IC points. While I don't find the player suspicious right now, I would say that I haven't seen much scum-hunting from them.

Sorry about that, but I'm busy with school and prepping for a party.


Anyways, I'm a bit confused at this point in time. From what I can gather:

Feeres is suspicious due to the fact that his random vote degraded to a FoS, even though CJ acted very scummy only a page before. Then he gives little insight to his reasoning. Hero, in turn, is defending Feeres because

I only suspect him of being newbie atm

A pattern I'm also finding, people keep on claiming that they randomized their votes before hand, but anyone could say that even if they were targeting someone. Claims that are near impossible to support really aren't useful.

CJMiller is really hard to understand what he's trying to say, and his votes and FoSs sum up to be OMGUSs.

Would make this longer, but I'm sorta busy.

[Toledo25]

I honestly don't feel bad for killing CJ; he was frankly being

way

to suspicious. At this point, I think that the majority of suspicion to Feeres has been eliminated with the lynching off CJMiller, since he was just a townie and Feeres would have no motivation to give him one less vote if Feeres was scum.

Also, the fact that the person who was NK (Artem) had only 1 vote on him interests me. This may point to Slaine Hayes as being a scum that was afraid of being chased by Artem. However, that's way too sloppy. Artem's reason summed up to be:

Vote: Slaine Hayes for stealing the second IC spot.

If a Mafia member tried to set us up, they'd have to make a pretty bad mistake to not notice that it was a random vote and that Artem was hardly suspicious of Slaine (unless I missed him saying that). This has led me to believe:

a.) it's a WIFOM (maybe Slaine did think that someone would notice, but then someone would figure that the scum would know that someone that, etc.)
b.) the scum were just sloppy in their reading, and relied heavily on post 148
c.) they don't want an IC to help the town (wimps!)
d.) the scum was under heavy pressure from Artem

This seems to match mostly with Feeres, since he didn't post until after CJ was suspicious at post 28 (I personally pay the most attention to bold text/votes when I come on and there's many new posts). Feeres was also under some fire by Artem. But then again, the majority of suspicion on Feeres was for his FoS rather than random vote, so he could just be a townie.

Hockey also replaced in, so he may have missed the first few posts. But he's not suspicious, and that's a weak argument.

[Toledo25]

Also, the fact that the person who was NK (Artem) had only 1 vote on him interests me. This may point to Slaine Hayes as being a scum that was afraid of being chased by Artem. However, that's way too sloppy. Artem's reason summed up to be:

Vote: Slaine Hayes for stealing the second IC spot.

If a Mafia member tried to set us up, they'd have to make a pretty bad mistake to not notice that it was a random vote and that Artem was hardly suspicious of Slaine (unless I missed him saying that). This has led me to believe:

a.) it's a WIFOM (maybe Slaine did think that someone would notice, but then someone would figure that the scum would know that someone that, etc.)
b.) the scum were just sloppy in their reading, and relied heavily on post 148
c.) they don't want an IC to help the town (wimps!)
d.) the scum was under heavy pressure from Artem

Im not sure what you are getting at here- are you insinuating that if I was scum I should have voted for Artem because he was an IC but I was scared to do so because of his status?

No, I was thinking that a rather clumsy scum might have night killed Artem to make the town believe you wanted him dead since Artem voted for you. But they'd have to be pretty oblivious to the previous conversation and only have looked at post 148 (final tally for Day 1) to think he was after you. Sorry if I'm making this difficult to understand -.-

Also, what points in hockeyruler's argument do you find weak?

No, I was saying MY argument was weak for considering Hockeyruler, since it realied only on him being a replacement that came page 3ish (don't know exact page). I'm just saying whatever comes to mind that is rational.

[Toledo25]

I honestly don't feel bad for killing CJ; he was frankly being way to suspicious. At this point, I think that the majority of suspicion to Feeres has been eliminated with the lynching off CJMiller, since he was just a townie and Feeres would have no motivation to give him one less vote if Feeres was scum.

Am I the only one who saw this? Why are you "clearing" Feeres so soon(or at all)? Do you not see how scum could benefit by not lynching a townie? Sorry for the double negative, but I find it highly suspicious that you would begin day 2 virtually clearing someone who is obviously not beyond suspicion.

FoS: Toledo

No, I'm not saying that ALL suspicion of Feeres is gone. If he had in fact voted for CJ, then it would have looked like he wanted a quick kill and prevent information from coming. Though I can see why you still have doubts about Feeres; it might have just been a plot to make CJ look more suspicious the next day if he wasn't lynched.


Also at this point, I'm forced to believe that either Tenchi or Hero is scum. Not sure which one is more reasonable and which is scummy though. It should become clearer over the next few real days.

[Toledo25]

Hero, you seemed rather focused on getting Tenchi at this point with such a temerity (correct me if I used that word in wrong context). You keep on saying that Tenchi voted for CJMiller with prior knowledge that he was in fact a townie. It seems that Tenchi hammered CJ because he could have just been acting. Yet you say that Tenchi knew he was town, and that Tenchi would rather kill a newbie than scum. Though Tenchi only said that he wouldn't let CJ keep on going to the endgame since he was a newb.

I'm beginning to wonder if you (being Hero) are a cop, and you investigated Tenchi and got negative. But the odds of there being a cop and you being it are slim, and I think at this point it's more of a rivalry between you and Tenchi.

Not voting at this point since I'm still not convinced about anyone being scum. Have my suspects though.

As for 2, so you're saying we should lynch any lurkers/inactive players simply because they aren't of use to us?

I think he means one reason he voted for CJ was because CJ was more of a hindrance than help. I'm not sure there was a post by CJ that didn't make himself look more scummy or was void of point.

[Toledo25]

So just to understand the basis of the argument: you are accusing Tenchi of being scum because he says lynching CJ was a good move, Tenchi knew CJ was scum, he said he'd rather lynch a newbie townie than scum, and is contradicting himself. Tenchi says your scum because he did not in fact say he'd rather kill newb than scum, CJ looked too much like scum and was unhelpful, he didn't know CJ was pro-town, and says you are lying. Tell me if there's any points I missed.

Also, clarify this point:

2. So you're saying you would rather lynch a newbie than lynch scum?

Shit's just not adding up. Vote: Tenchi

Now this is worse. I have never said I'd rather lynch a newbie rather than lynch scum.

I said I'd rather lynch a suspicious person rather than giving them a free pass because they are new.

Your statements are a stretch. And lying over and over again does not make it true.

Vote: Hero764

Read bold: You're still saying you'd lynch someone over scum.

I don't really see how that says Tenchi would rather kill a townie. I think that he's saying he would lynch CJMiller for being suspicious, even though he is new.

=====================================================
My suspects:

Hero764 and Tenchi are at the top, since they both have made some points in their argument with each other. At this point I believe that at least 1 of them is scum.

Kikuchiyo and Slaine Hayes both seem pretty clean, and I don't have anything to implicate that they are scum. Same with Feeres, but Day 1 left a bad impression.

I don't know really what to think of Hockeyruler yet. He could be either pro-town or pro-mafia, but I really don't know about him.

[Toledo25]

Toledo88 is looking scummish as well for me, he's mostly been just going with the flow but not really done that much. There's something about his later posts which somehow changed my perception of him.

Which posts specifically?

Toledo/Kikuchiyo/Hero: If I'm scum, who's my buddy?

If you are scum, then Hockey might be your partner since you both voted CJ at the end of Day 1 pretty quickly. However, he explained himself pretty quickly and well, so I can't really decide on him.

At this point, since he is acting the most scummish and there is several passing arguments against him, I say

Vote: Tenchi

at this point. It's still another 2 votes to lynching, and I don't feel I would be justified in voting for anyone else.

[Toledo25]

Sorry about my scarce posting... again. My brother keeps on on playing a MMORPG on the only computer I have access to. Today, he was on from 7:00 Am to 11:30 Am straight, and I expect him to be on again later today.

I doubt that. You said it in post 125:

This does no help. And I honestly do not know how to proceed.

I'm looking for some help from our IC Very Happy

Is it okay to vote for CJ simply because I feel he isn't being helpful? I highly doubt hes mafia. He seems more... "Extremely newbish" and yet not voting for someone because of this seems like it would make it a very easy way for the mafia to "go about business".

Actually, post 125 looked like:

Unvote (for the last time)
Vote Feeres because I don't believe his FoSing me was random

Hockeyruler said the above at 133, not 125. I guess

someone

isn't being very attentive.

ATTN TOWNIES: I think it should be pretty obvious by now that at least one of these two is scum. I really want your thoughts on this.

Hero: Do you yourself believe that both or only one of them is scum? I think that at this point it's more likely that Tenchi is scum, but about 75% of Day 2 posts have involved him. You are also a bit too focused on both of them, and you didn't even make a comment about the most noticeable part of post 185:

I'm beginning to wonder if you (being Hero) are a cop, and you investigated Tenchi and got negative. But the odds of there being a cop and you being it are slim, and I think at this point it's more of a rivalry between you and Tenchi.

I'm a little surprised that you didn't question me about that, or even say something about me fishing.

I agree that both players are suspect, but you haven't addressed my last post. Why are we focusing on these two and not Toledo? I believe Toledo posted what looked like a role fishing post earlier, and was on the wagon yesterday at L-2, which according to your logic, should be just as suspicious as an L-1 vote, no?

Regarding the fishing, I wasn't asking the cop to come forward and announce him/herself. I was, however, trying to show that Hero could best be justified in his assault on Tenchi if he knew, without a doubt, that Tenchi was scum, which could only happen if he was a cop.

And by "your", you mean who?

[Toledo25]

Welcome aboard, SerialClergyman

kik: That's a pretty stupid idea imo. Everyone else is going to look like a liar, and I feel that will impair the town's ability to scum hunt.

Why? The results are meaningless unless someone actually flips cop. The other alternatives are to possibly lose any and all investigations, or for our cop to claim in thread before night 2 begins. Personally, I don't see how either of those options benefit town. The results should be entirely ignored until cop claims or flips. We are not even guaranteed to have a cop, so please expand on your reasoning if you persist in believing this to be stupid.

WAIT WAIT

STOOPID IDEA ALERT

I made a mistake here.

If we happen to hit scum on our "fake investigations" scum would be able to know who is NOT the cop because the cop would have claimed by now (to save me of course *winkwink*). This would actually narrow down the choices for hitting Cop in their coming nightkill.

E.g. If we all "investigate" Hero "innocent", and Hero is scum. And Cop-Feeres was the only person not to invesigate Hero, then Hero would know to kill Feeres.

If we hit a Townie too much, it will also put at risk that specific Townie as candidate for being killed at night.

In other words, I feel we are giving scum additional information here in picking the best person to kill.

Also, if someone "claims" a scum to be innocent, then the Mafia can automatically rule them out to

not

being a cop. I suggest that we stop this idea.

[Toledo25]

Toledo88:
What do you find odd with Hero (post 35)?

I believe it was for being defensive and being afraid of putting a second vote on someone. Though I don't remember exactly why.

Why did you feel the need to say I was odd if you had nothing to back it up with (post 62)?

Because of something called "expansive contraction". It's when you say things like "did not" and "can not" instead of "didn't" and "can't". People lying tend to do it unintentionally in order to emphasize points. Also, I made a small mention of the random voting/FoSing in it.

Do you think Tenchi is really pursuing Hero (post 62)?

Yes

Do you mean that majority of suspicion on me was removed because I didn't vote for him or because only thing you found suspicious about me was my FoS (post 152)?

Because you gave a FoS rather than vote. If, for instance, CJ turned up scum, then there would be more suspicion.

Do you think there is any real connection with Artem's NK and his vote on Slaine (post 152)?

Not anymore, though there used to be a slight idea in my mind

Do you find me suspicious or not anymore (post 173)?

I'd probably be surprised if you turned up scum, though I really don't trust anyone beyond 85% at this point with the possible exception of Serial.

Why do you find Tenchi and Hero scummy (post 173)?

Hero-His unrelenting argument against Tenchi lost it's point and value easily. I felt that he was and is going after Tenchi too much.
Tenchi- He didn't really mind that a townie was lynched, with him as the hammerer. Also, see below.
I will say that I was moderately/heavily influenced on how their argument dominated D-2 and how Hero was quite aggresive, so I can say that it made me feel more suspecting of them, especially Tenchi.

Can you point out the reasons why Tenchi is scummy (post 199)?*

- In post 198, it seemed like he was daring us to vote for him. Same with 182.
- He rushed the hammer on Day 1
- Again, he didn't really mind a townie lynch

Do you have anything to say about your change of posting style?*

During Night 1, I felt that I had really been a waste during Day 1, so I felt that I had to be a bit more open. (Will finish this answer later)
Who else could Hero focus (post 226)?*

Wow. I just realized how sad the majority of my posts have been

On that post, you claim you do think CJMiller was good lynch choice.

Let's look at it from another view: assuming that a no lynch would be bad for the town, who would have been better to lynch on Day 1? Feeres?


* = Have to go, I'll finish this probably tomorrow.

[Toledo25]

Continuing...

Do you have anything to say about your change of posting style?

During Night 1, I felt that I had really been a waste during Day 1 aside from my empty vote, so I felt that I had to be a bit more open. Also, regarding my fishing, that was because the Hero vs. Tenchi argument was losing it's strength (not the best way of describing it), and Hero seemed to be the more aggressive one.

Who else could Hero focus (post 226)?

I'm not too...annoyed (I'm having trouble finding the word(s)) that he was after Hockey, more of him and Tenchi was the worse part.

Hero: You might have missed my question, but I'd like it answered-

Assuming that a no lynch would be bad for the town, who would have been better to lynch on Day 1? Feeres?

Also, can someone explain to me what "tunneling" is?

[Toledo25]

Toledo/Hockey is plausible due to their behaviors and conspicuous placement on the day 1 bandwagon. Hockey seems more obvious scum right now, but that may be because Toledo has gone quiet

What's conspicuous about Toledo/Hockey day 1 placements in the bandwagon? I'd say that the common "3rd on bandwagon" tell applies to Toledo, but what's the thing with Hockey's vote? In my opinion his vote or placement of the vote was justified when he eventually gave the reasons for it.

Feeres: I'm not sure if you are questioning me on my position on the bandwagon, but I'll just say this for the record: I believed that CJMiller was scum. The fact that I was #3 on the bandwagon really doesn't mean much to me (unless it's a scum tell, please tell me if so).

All: Since mine or Hockey's lynch at this point is pretty close to guaranteed, I have a question: if the person who is lynched turns out to be protown, what will become of the other? No need to say what will happen if me or Hockey comes up scum, I can figure that one out.

[Toledo25]

Can't post much now, I shall tomorrow hopefully.

[Toledo25]

OK, I can post something now.

First off, I want to say that I still highly consider that Tenchi still could be scum. It seems that once Serial subbed in and accused me, people have lost interest in the Tenchi/Hero dilemma. I feel that there still is a chance that one of them is scum, and much more likely it's Tenchi. So I'll keep my vote where it is.

Also...

All: Since mine or Hockey's lynch at this point is pretty close to guaranteed, I have a question: if the person who is lynched turns out to be protown, what will become of the other? No need to say what will happen if me or Hockey comes up scum, I can figure that one out.

Why are you asking this? Of course you don't care about the scenario in which YOU are lynched. If you are town, why would you care about how we feel about Hockey on D3 (assuming he's alive)?

In which case...

... you only care about the scenario when Hockey is lynched. In which case, if Hockey does flip town, you are wondering what your position will be after that.

Underlined:

Actually, I would care. You may have forgotten, but all townies win with the town, even if some die (same for all alignments). And in that case, what info would my lynch reveal, and how would it affect everyone's thoughts? If I get lynched and come up as townie, it still leaves Hockey/Tenchi as a possible pair for at least one person (see post 380, where Serial discussed that Hockey's lynch will give more info). My lynch would help choose a lynch for D-3, and I want to know how things would go down with the 4 possibilities.

Kiku: I seemed to have missed the part where you explain why you think that a Serial/Toledo scumteam is possible. He says he would rather lynch Hockey since it would better give info and he was scummy. Please give a bit more insight.

Unvote, Vote Toledo

Claim please. Noone hammer.

Since I'm at L-1 (hope I counted right), I guess I'll say I'm Vanilla Townie. I'd rather not though, since in case I don't get lynched, the scum will have a better chance of hitting a role.


P.S.: Hope you get better soon Kiku

[Toledo25]

Am I surprised that the scum only kills ICs? They're really... scummy

Go town! [/bah]

[Toledo25]

If Hero was scum and didn't hammer you, he's crazy.

I dunno, that could be fun. You could act like total scum, yet only a fool would vote for you.

Anyways, (assuming Kiku is scum) I'd really like to know why tenchi was NK'ed. By the time D3 was over, I was thinking "Tenchi is obvscum!", but I might have been tunneling.

Good game everyone

[Toledo25]

Serial, it wasn't all your fault. I mean, that rolefish (Day 2, I believe) was a pretty crappy move on my part. Also, after you turned you attention to Hockey, I thought I'd be saved by you and I slacked off. It'd be fun to play with some of you again sometime

Also, all of the NKs disappointed me. Scum killed both of the ICs D1 and D2(weak, this is a newbie game!) and then killed Tenchi (bad idea). C'mon, you guys could have had better choices!