Newbie 74 - Game Over

[kieron]

This is my second game ever (first on this board), so be gentle!

This may be bad logic (please correct me if it is), but my thinking is that these random votes are more likely to hit a townie than mafia, so they help the mafia. Why not wait until day #2 to vote (when the cop has some information)?

Kieron

[kieron]

Also, I'm hoping that the titles don't really mean what they say (this game would be too easy!). ie, that JDTAY and Locus Cosecant are "Mafia Scum"...

How are the titles set anyway?

[kieron]

This may be bad logic (please correct me if it is), but my thinking is that these random votes are more likely to hit a townie than mafia, so they help the mafia. Why not wait until day #2 to vote (when the cop has some information)?

It's generally accepted that a no lynch (especially on day 1)is bad for the town. Besides, it's not much fun. [snip]

Yeah, I could see that it wouldn't be as much fun, but...WHY is it generally accepted to be bad for the town?

[kieron]

Code: Select all

Lynch Pro-Town Day 1           :   No-Lynch Day 1
6 Remain                       :   7 Remain
Mafia successful Night 1       :   Mafia Successful Night 1
5 Remain                       :   6 Remain
Day 2 is lynch right or lose   :   Day 2 is lynch right or lose

A similar graphic to the one above was shown to me when I asked the same question you did, kieron. If you need further explanation, please feel free to ask away.

Does "Lynch pro-town" mean that the town lynchs a mafia?

The last line says "lynch right or lose", in either case, right? But I thought you were saying that the Lynch scenario is better??

If it's "generally accepted" that it's better to lynch day one, then I guess I should jump in. Having no real information, I guess I'll vote for the person who voted for me:

Vote: Jaggedcrags

As an aside, I tried to find a simulator on the theory part of the board, but I can't. Could someone direct me to one?

[kieron]

Sorry, Locus, but all the vets know that the game begins on Day 2. I wasn't supposed to tell you guys, but basically we wait for some n00b to try to play the game on Day 1 and lynch him. It's how we vets avoid getting lynched Day 1.

What do you mean "I wasn't supposed to tell you guys"? Did the experienced players do some sort of pre-planning?

You wait for a newbie to try and play the game, and then lynch him for doing so? That doesn't really seem in the spirit of trying to promote the game (of mafia)! It seems like the vets should be focusing (in the newbie games) on making the game fun/interesting for the newbies, not on winning (as much as in the "real" games).

Anyway, so now you are going to lynch myopia since he actually tried to play?...how odd.

Just my 2 cents.

[kieron]

[snip]

What I want to discuss is whether the cop should come out day 2 as soon as they have done an investigation. Seems to me that with this set up, and only 1 kill possible a night, as long as the doc (and the cop of course) are still alive that will always be the best percentage play. If theres 2 role claims then you end up at worst with a confirmed scum and a confirmed townie. Id like to hear everyone elses thoughts on this.[snip]

I think if the doc is alive, the cop should FOR SURE come out (if he knows who a mafia is, or if we're about to lynch who he knows is a townie). After all, he'll be protected by the doc.

If the doc is dead, the cop probably should come out if he knows who a mafia is, since 1 for 1 is a good trade for the town. If he just knows a townie, he should probably stay hidden.

That's just my gut (and I don't have any data - or even experience - to back it up with, so I'll be interested to hear more experienced players answers).

[kieron]

Real doc should definitely claim in this situation, IMO. But I have a feeling that JDTAY is it.

Why should the real doc claim? Correct me if I'm wrong, but won't the real doc be killed by the mafia the night he makes his claim? If JDTAY is mafia, wouldn't this just be exactly what he wants (to flush out the real doc)?

And how will we know who is the real doc and who is mafia? Do we just kinda pick one to lynch and hope for the best? I guess at that point a 50/50 chance is better than what we have randomly.

As an aside, I do agree that JDTAY is acting maybe a little TOO desparate - with only two votes against him...kinda more newbie than his previous posts would have us believe he is... He's seems overly focused on staying in the game (as opposed to trying to get his team to win)...

[kieron]

So, if everyone agrees Talitha's logic is good (and it seems good to me), and no one else claims doc, we've got a confirmed townie.

Now, it seems like we just go through all the players one by one (almost lynching each time) until someone claims cop, and we have the same situation...

So, does that mean the cop should just come out now?? That can't be right. Or is it? I'm confused.

What now, Talitha? Help!

[kieron]

BTW - I've half-a-mind to suggest lynching JDTAY just for being mean. I guess I'll just have to settle for the fact that he'll be killed tonight.

HA!

[kieron]

[snip]
kieron, AIUI, the whole point is that we try to find scum, and then lynch them. The reason for claims is so that we don't inadvertantly lynch a power role. Aside from that, your statement made very little sense. Please think about these things a little more before appealing to a player who, for all we know, could be scum.[snip]

Which statement makes very little sense? I said I was confused. Isn't that clear enough? HAR!

Also, what did I say that appealed to the player who could be scum? And what player were you referring to? JDTAY?

Now I'm even more confused.

[kieron]

It's a fair comment. I don't expect that anyone would be able to tell if I am innocent or not at this stage. I'd probably give the same advice that I have given, whether I was scum or not.[/quote]

See what I mean. The statement is completely and undoubtedly 100% correct while simultaneously of no asisstance whatsoever. [/quote]

T seems on the up and up to me (ie, town helpful)...

[kieron]

[snip]

This game is a lot tougher than I thought it would be. I thought I had a good grasp of strategy after reading through several threads, but apparently I overestimated my analytical skills. I honestly cannot really see how we can tell if someone is mafia at this point.[snip]

unvote

for now, I guess. No reason to keep it.

Well, I agree, basically, which is why I though no lynch would be good. I don't see how we can analyze without any information!

On the other hand, we DO seem to know that JD isn't mafia now. That helps a bit.

Unless...

Wouldn't it be a good townie strategy for a non-doc townie to claim doctor, then have the mafia try to kill him that night, while the REAL doc protects him? And since this would be a good townie strategy, wouldn't it be a good mafia strategy as well (to claim to be the doc)?

I guess this line of reasoning goes on ad-infinitum, so maybe we know nothing at all.

Anyway, since Jagged unvoted me, I'll do the same,

Unvote: JaggedCrags

[kieron]

It's not reaaly a good strategy for a plain townie to claim doc. The real doc has no way of knowing that the false-claimer is not a scumbag, and the end result would be to expose the doc anyway, and get a townie lynched.

So what are we going to do about the lack of scummy acting people around here? Anyone got an idea?

Why would the end result be to expose the doc? The real doc could stay hidden, assuming the cliamer is a townie - and protect him night 1. This would be a major coup for the town, but may be outweighed by the liklihood that the false cliamer is mafia. If the false claimer is mafia, the doc will know day 2 and the real doc can claim at that point. I guess it all hinges on how likely it is that the false claimer is a townie.

As far as ideas go, what if we each posted our current % liklihood that each person is mafia, based on their posts to date (with little explaination - at most three words)?

I don't have time to do this right now, but the other game I played in one guy posted it and it was interesting at the very least.

Happy Advent!

[kieron]

I think the idea is that pro-town people never lie, so that when you catch someone in a lie, you can be certain that they're mafia. That social convention is probably to the benefit of the town.

Agreed, and good point, but how can we possibly catch someone in a lie day one? It'll take at least until the end of the day to catch them.

Anyway, I guess since I'm supposed to vote for someone I'll pick Myopia...lots of suspecting, obvious newbieness, pointed a finger at me once...overall, doesn't seem to be as much help to the town as, say, the doctor, or Talithia (as an experienced player):

Vote: Myopia

[kieron]

[snip]

Are you voting on helpfulness or are you voting for someone who you think is scum? I think it is a valid question.
[snip]

I have

little idea

who the scum are, so you are as good a target as anyone....here are my % chance of being scum (should add up to 200%, since there are 2 mafia...it's late so my addition may be off):

inHim: 37%
Jagged: 3% (obvious)
JD: 37
LC: 37
Myopia: 63% (already stated)
Tally: 23% (pretty helpful to be mafia)

[kieron]

Whoops - I got Jagged and JD reversed. Should be:

inHim: 37%
Jagged: 37%
JD: 3% (obvious)
LC: 37%
Myopia: 63% (already stated)
Tally: 23% (pretty helpful to be mafia)

[kieron]

I still gave JD 3% assuming the (very unlikely) scenario I outlined where a townie falsely claims doc...

[kieron]

I still gave JD 3% assuming the (very unlikely) scenario I outlined where a townie falsely claims doc...

*eyebrow* If he's a townie falsely claiming doc, he still isn't scum, you realize.

Man, I am really slipping! Go ahead and lynch me for being a dumb-arse.

I guess my thinking was that there is still some small chance he is MAFIA and that the real doc THOUGHT he was a townie falsely claiming doc. WHEW. Maybe I out to lower that % to .3%...

[kieron]

I'm waiting for Jagged to vote...

[kieron]

Merry Christmas, all!

"For a child is born to us, a son is given to us; upon his shoulder dominion rests. They name him Wonder-Counselor, God-Hero, Father-Forever, Prince of Peace." Is 9:5

[kieron]

Tal - I'm not dead set against Myopia...I'm happy to vote for someone else high on my list of suspects!

[kieron]

Well, I'm out of town from tomorrow noon until 1/10 - I thought we'd be wrapped up by then, but it's gone more slowly than I thought!

Please feel free to replace me (or lynch me?) if you don't want to wait...

Kieron