{Welcome! Check here!}

[Brendan]

How do you feel about the number of votes for you at that tribal? Is it concerning?

[M. Gustave]

yes and no. getting four votes doesn't feel good, obviously, but at the same time we have to remember that one was an extra vote, and that 5 people voted with me. by the end i had been able to piece together exactly who was voting where, so the vote count wasn't a surprise really.

[Snoopy]

HOW IS GUSTAVE ADJUSTING TO NEW TRIBES? SNOOPY IS A BIT LATE BECAUSE SNOOPY WAS BUSY.

[M. Gustave]

this tribe is great! all the people here are good. herman is still quiet, but that's life; suzy and oracle remain awesome. anthony is probably going home but he's a very fun guy to talk to and i wish him better luck next time - i just hope he thinks his decisions through more! as for the other two, they're both very solid players. they've made great impressions; madame is more under-the-radar seeming, while margot feels very much like a power player and i'm a bit intimidated by her. not because she's scary to talk to, but rather because she's someone i could see running the game hardcore if she gets far. i don't want to let that happen, but on the other hand, i think her being dangerous is very apparent to everyone, so i don't think she'll be an impossible boot later on.

speaking of later on, it's all about merge planning now. oracle and i have been bouncing ideas off of each other of what we should do and how we can avoid our group of 4 from being pegged as the big threat. keeping margot around can help with that, and if foxy survives we may be able to take advantage of their grudge against madame. i think if we were to just pagong then duke, oracle, and i would start getting picked off around the last 8, which is no bueno. so i want to work with some rushmores, but not too many because i think there's an underdog narrative for a lot of them that i don't want to face if i somehow make it to the ftc.

[M. Gustave]

Confessional Prompt 14: Who are your ideal next few boots?

ideally anthony goes tonight, and someone not named duke goes simultaneously. then i go into merge and have to do some feeling-out to see who would work with me and for how long... once some of those bonds are established, i can start trimming the cast of people that i don't really trust. if foxy is gone then starting with peter could be nice; otherwise the foxy/madame hostilities can be exploited to get out a middle-of-the-road player like royal perhaps, or herman. i think the writer/suzy/richie trio is real and that they have to be broken up sooner than later, the hard part is that they need to be broken in a way that doesn't just let them flip and kill me... duke not living pushes the critical time forward. 7 is clearly too risky so it has to be before that even if we do have duke still. doing it at 9 or so wouldn't suck i think? i really hope duke lives because 3 >>>>>> 2.

another possibility is that we go for writer early and leave suzy/richie for later. writer can clearly win some challenges, and i'm almost certain that suzy and richie both like each other more than writer. he could be a vote that everyone comes together on... so many possibilities for the future.

[M. Gustave]

it's that 'lovely' time again, where i'm being appealed to by the presumed vote and i can't help but feel really bad for voting them out. strangely, despite liking anthony more than i liked sam, i feel less upset about these appeals than i did about sam's?? maybe i'm getting used to it, a scary thought.

[M. Gustave]

ok, some news re: the game. margot told me and suzy that we were being targeted by peter and writer. she says that peter thinks the two of us are a pair; that's not the case, at least not on my end, but the truth doesn't matter. why peter is so fixated on me is a mystery and an annoying one at that.

and after hearing speculation that maybe writer and peter got the rings, a lot of stuff clicked for me. writer got all the things (duh), so nobody mysteriously passed him items. he and peter have been talking all game, which is how they not only trusted each other so much, but also why peter was so eager to get over here (and writer reluctant to leave - he knew what peter was planning). writer using the knife on the bullet in his arm no longer can be seen as a naive move but rather one that makes a lot of sense - peter probably shouldn't have mentioned that writer used the knife to activate it! if not for him we'd have never known.

but anyway, i'm very possibly the target tonight, but i'm cautiously optimistic. unless i've been played like a fiddle, oracle and duke should be with me for this, along with suzy, richie, and herman. that makes 6 out of 7 votes already, and if margot wanted to get us out, she could have simply left us in the dark. add to that madame, who i think likes us but i'm not sure, and it's a matter of not letting our side get persuaded to flip.

as for who to vote, i feel like writer would be the better of the two to remove. he's been amazing at every challenge, and only barely lost this time. plus, he's just better than peter in most areas imo (not to call peter bad; i'm far from an arbiter of quality play).

[M. Gustave]

oh, and quick answer to prompt 16: i would say not, but maybe i should try it after all to reduce the chances that peter/writer win it? aagh. if i wasn't on the block and could afford to split or w/e i wouldn't consider it... public idols suck and this isn't much better than one.

[M. Gustave]

oracle tells me it's likely that he'll be entering a group chat with margot, madame, and duke. that's cool with me, because that will help avoid us being seen as a pair. of course, it helps him more than me, because it doesn't address people randomly thinking i'm a pair with suzy. and this confirms my suspicion that margot and madame are close; probably a 'no shit' observation but neither have explicitly said so. my instincts to say nothing negative about one to the other were correct, and i'm glad i listened to them.

getting forward in the game is going to be hard for as long as i'm tagged as being a pair with somebody, and that's annoying. even if we do have a majority this round and we get out peter/writer, i need the support of the people who are currently neutral between me and the people voting me: madame, margot, buckley. buckley barely messages me ever so he's tough to rely on, and while i like both of the ladies they're bound to trust each other more than me in the end, and won't hesitate to slit my throat when it's opportune.

i don't want to be defeatist - certainly i believe that there's a way for my slot to get to the end and even win. but i worry that it's close to an unwinnable state already, and i'll hate it when i see my chances go to zero. on the one hand i have to trust in my ability to play the game, but at the same time i can't afford to overestimate how much people like me or how persuasive i am. my current goal is to surpass my previous best finish while continuing to have fun, and that at least is in reach.

[M. Gustave]

completely off topic, but i was just notified that somebody mentioned me on wiktionary as "a user (now inactive)... who did [work] well." and here i thought nobody noticed my template cleanup work. senpai noticed me!

[M. Gustave]

peter has switched from pushing me and suzy and is now targeting herman. incredibly, peter approached me to ask if i would vote herman with him. that's some serious balls. i told him i respect him for his honesty, which i do, and that i'd be willing to vote herman, which i am... later. tonight, it will be all peter, all the time.

there's been a lot of discussion wondering whether we can/should split the vote. i would hate to get idoled out, but splitting runs the risk of alienating people like richie, who doesn't want big threats gone yet (because he needs shields). i don't think i can afford to lose richie on this, and i think the overall vibe of my peeps is one of caution, so i'm going to just vote peter. if i'm idoled out, that will be my first time being on the receiving end, and that will be that.

[M. Gustave]

first reaction: thank god no idol
second reaction: who voted buckley??? and why did they do this. oh maybe it was a self vote, that might be the thing that makes the most sense actually.

[M. Gustave]

ohohoho, an art challenge! ohohoho no... my art skills are lackluster to say the least. i will try to give better than a shitty mspaint drawing though. zero guess who will win immunity.

[M. Gustave]

"Confessional Prompt 17: After a hectic merge vote, numbers seemed to coalesce around one target. Was that target good for you?"

i believe it was! peter going gets me one step further forward while still leaving higher-priority targets than me around. and despite our overtures towards peace, i don't think either of us could ever have really trusted the other so i couldn't count on him being a vote on my side.

i'm under no illusions that this is 'my' move or that this helps only me. but i'm far from sad that this happened and do believe that i'm one of the people to benefit from it.

[M. Gustave]

best wishes, buckley. i barely got to know you, but you're making the right choice by putting life ahead of this game, so don't feel any guilt.

[M. Gustave]

oh my god... i think... i think i see a real path to the end. holy god, it's an incredible feeling. if i don't fuck up horribly, i'm set for my highest ever finish.

i see {me, duke, oracle, suzy} as my cohesive group, with herman and richie at least cooperating for now. the fact that nobody knows duke is super tight with us is massive, because they'll miscalculate our size. anyway, the big threats that i see are margot, richie, and writer in no particular order, and then madame as well. that's 3 or 4 threats to remove with 7 tribals to do it. now, there's the possibility that i'll have to cut oracle at final 5, which would break my heart. i seriously love oracle, he's awesome. but we've played really similar games and have similar friends, and he's probably done a bit better than me overall. losing to him wouldn't suck and i'd be happy for him, but i would like to maximize my own chances too.

[M. Gustave]

doing my drawing. i'd heard hands were hard but good god, what a nightmare

[M. Gustave]

"Confessional Prompt 18: How does Buckley's quit impact your game?"

i think it was a big slice of luck for me. we skip a tribal where i was honestly very worried that i or one of my close allies would be going out, and now we're at a point where our tight five can't even be outvoted. buckley leaving could actually turn out to be a game-changer if the people not in my tight group were thinking of voting against me at 11.

[M. Gustave]

"Confessional Prompt 19: Idol speculation time. Who's got one? Are you at risk of being at the receiving end of a played idol?"

most likely candidates are margot and writer because of general challenge strength. if writer has it i'm definitely one of the people who could get idoled out, which would again be a first for me.

and why do i think i'd get idoled out? because i just heard from oracle that writer is gunning for me and duke, and also that there was a big ol' chat from original ivanhoe that i wasn't a part of. this happens to me pretty often and it's kind of sad, i guess i really don't impress people much at first glance.

so now knowing that, the anxiety is building. however, i still have some faith that my side outnumbers theirs, and that i'm more useful to my allies alive than dead. as always, if you don't win immunity you have no choice but to trust people, and i hope my trust isn't misplaced.

side note: while definitely writer, richie, margot, and madame have all got to go, i think people are sleeping on just how good suzy's position is. nobody wants her out, but everyone tells her stuff and she has a lot of pull. she could prove to be a dark horse winner if we can't challenge the perception of her as 'not a threat.'

[M. Gustave]

writer is asking me right now about whether i've been pushing his name. talk about awkward. he also argues that he's not a high-priority threat, because he's socially on the outside, which is... not actually incorrect to my knowledge? at most i see royal and richie being on his side, and i'm not even positive that he has them. unfortunately, word is now out that i've been 'pushing names' which is not great. it's also pretty much exactly what got me in trouble in my last game... i've taken this class before, and it's not any more fun the second time. if it's not me this time, i'll have to play a lot more passively in the next few rounds to avoid being targeted... but then i'll have nearly no power to get the game to a place where i can win. aaahhh, can't even complain, because this is entirely my own fault.

[M. Gustave]

current plan that i've heard is to split on writer/royal. even richie has told me that he wants to vote writer. let it be known that lying to and misleading writer and royal doesn't make me happy. in fact, it makes me feel pretty terrible. they won't see this until postgame, if ever, but i want it to be on record somewhere.

[M. Gustave]

"Confessional Prompt 20: Did you think a tie vote was possible, and what does this mean for you?"

i did, but not a 5-5 tie! this was a complete surprise to me. from what i gather, suzy and herman were very unhappy about the split plan (whether it's because of who was being voted or because it was a split is unclear), and oracle acquiesced to their demands to keep them onside. that's oracle's side of the story; it'll be interesting to see how the others frame it. and ok, so that happened, and yes, i was being stubborn about trying to force a split through. but getting left out of the loop here doesn't feel too good. so while i'm not going home unless we go to rocks, this tie makes me feel uneasy.

[M. Gustave]

me: ok i'm going to try to take charge of the game
others: mmmmmmm no *smack*

so, there's an alliance of at minimum oracle, suzy, richie, and herman. all of these people had the option to tell me about the split and they didn't. even oracle didn't, which hurts my soul a little. they got some help this round from writer, and it could be argued that 'oh, gustave, they'll just kick him in a round or two and you'll be right back in the top five!' haha, no. if they don't think they can tell me about this vote, then they obviously don't trust me a ton, which means i'm expendable. if i am kept around, it'll be as a chained-up vote. but if we go to rocks, i have a chance to change things and maybe be more than a compromise vote or pocket goat. i may go home to rocks, or i may end up voted out the very next round for 'going nuts.' but will they really want to go into f8 with all of margot, oracle, suzy, richie, writer, and madame still alive? probably not, though it would make a very exciting ftc.

ultimately, i feel like the stress has kind of suddenly melted off of me, despite me having seriously fucked up my position in the game. it feels almost freeing to know that i might have no tomorrow but i'll at least go out swinging. and ultimately, i've had fun, and i did as well as i could, so i can have no complaints.

[Brendan]

Thanks for the insight!

Based on what you know, do you think all of the other votes will be there to force the rock draw, or is it possible that someone else (either a Writer voter or a Madame voter) might flip to avoid it?

[M. Gustave]

well great, here comes the second-guessing. say madame goes. i could go join a new group of {me, writer, royal, margot, duke} and maybe have numbers, but i know writer has little reason to trust me. if writer goes, then the group would instead be {me, madame, margot, duke, royal} and that seems at least a little better, though royal might find me sketchy. aaugh, am i even really at the bottom of {oracle, me, suzy, richie, duke, herman}? clearly if it gets down to just those five i'm in trouble because i can't beat oracle, suzy, or richie. that means i'd need to flip before that point. who can i even beat? maybe duke, herman, royal are the people that wouldn't just get all the votes against me, meaning i have to keep at least 2 of those three alive to the end. yeesh.

with that in mind, do i think that splitting is still good? it could well take out duke or royal, who i need because herman is def. not closer to me than suzy. to have a chance of winning i need to band together with those three, plus one more... unless we can pick off threats long enough for the underdogs to rise up in revolt... god damn. i know richie is very conscious of said possibility, so he would be careful to avoid it happening. should i just led madame go? surely not... something like {her, me, duke, margot, royal} is way preferable to a group with her replaced by anyone else. yes, margot has her own agenda, and royal knows the ladies better than he knows me. but he must see that duke and i would be way more beatable at the end than either of them. so madame must live, thus i must not vote her, thus i must risk rocks.