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[M. Gustave]

CONFESSIONAL PROMPT 5: After a close challenge, how are you feeling about your tribe's cohesion and unity? Is there a weak link?

still salty over losing by 1. i feel like the tribe is fairly unified, as everyone i've asked largely feels the same way about people as me. a lot of people mention liking oracle a lot, which doesn't surprise me; the only question is whether they've been told that they're his favorite like i have. anthony and richie seem pretty popular too, but it's not as unanimous. suzy seems to be a little polarizing, some people love her and others have no attachment at all. multiple people had expressed some concerns about kylie even before she went rogue on the challenge, so she would qualify as the weakest link and most obvious target. few people seem attached to herman or sam from what i can tell, nobody seems to dislike them but they're in the 'meh' zone for everyone. duke i'm a little confused on, i've heard a few say they like him and have heard he's popular, others say he's just ok and that nobody has said they like him; strange.

[M. Gustave]

CONFESSIONAL PROMPT 6: Who in your tribe is being overlooked, either as an under the radar threat, or as a potential ally to pick up?

i think that duke has been pretty low profile so far, but if his activity picks up like he said it would then i could see him become a strong force. he's very likeable, and each of his posts has a good amount of content. just add volume and you have a player i would love to have on my side.

in other news, no swap. i'm pretty happy with that, i get to hang out with my peeps for longer. this next challenge seems like it could be the fun kind of stressful, or just stressful; we'll see how it pans out.

[M. Gustave]

so i literally had just responded to a post from sam where he asked if i thought the bolded miss by peter in the challenge meant anything, when i see the young writer's post about intentional misfires granting an advantage! spooky coincidence. maybe sam was on to something after all. then again, the schematics had to come from somewhere, and maybe sam had them and so knew about it to begin with. hell, for all i know the writer didn't even get the schematics and is just leading us on a wild goose chase for reasons unknown.

[M. Gustave]

that was a madcap challenge, but i think it ended up on the fun side; i enjoyed doing it, and it was exciting to do it in real time. the only annoying thing was the warning that new posts were made, but that's just built-in to the software so i can't complain. once again, our planning made a big difference.

oracle has shared with me some information that's potentially big: the person who told duke that he'd be receiving votes last tribal was anthony. and since kylie self-voted (she wasn't online at all during the tc), that means duke got voted by someone still alive. either a) anthony voted duke, but warned him and only him about it; b) a third player said they'd vote duke, and anthony warned duke; or c) duke is a diabolical madman who self-voted and made up a story to make anthony seem suspicious. option c would be amazing and i would love duke forever if he was bold enough to try that, but i think you'd have to be a little nuts to consider it the most likely scenario. i've yet to decide whether i think it's a or b, but either one makes me trust anthony less with sensitive information.

[Snoopy]

ANY UPDATE ON THE ANTHONY SITUATION?

[M. Gustave]

so oracle did some analysis, with a lot of number crunching, but i noticed an unfortunate flaw in that he was assuming everyone bid either their minimum or everything, not accounting for the many ways in which people could have spent some value in between. as such, all his work was wasted and that's heartbreaking :(. as for anthony himself, i do still trust him in the short to medium term, but i do believe that he's playing all sides to some extent and so is the horseman i'd be most comfortable losing when the time comes to break the alliance.

right now though, i'd most prefer herman or sam to go; neither offer me a whole lot, i haven't liked my convo with sam (sorry sam), and herman just isn't around like ever. at best in a swap, they eat one tribal for me as 'easier' targets, and at worst i think they get rightly worried about their position and flip to sell me/my allies out.

[M. Gustave]

> check back in for just the second time today
> "hey guys sorry for disappearing today, shouldn't happen again. i'll get to my messages now"
> has zero unread messages

no question where people's brain power has been going today. hint: it's not messaging

[M. Gustave]

i realize i missed prompt 7, sorry for forgetting to answer that one.

Confessional Prompt 8: How well do you know your current tribe at this point? Does anyone still surprise you?

i feel like oracle and i are on the same page with basically everything, it's awesome and i hope we can get really far. i haven't mentioned to anybody that he's basically the same person as me, so ideally we won't get singled out as a pair. anthony is a lot of fun to talk to and is fairly open to talking game, but i'm a little leery of his true motivations (see #28 and #30). richie is great at balancing serious talk with chatting, and i'd say i trust him second best of this tribe. i like duke these days, our convo flows well and he's very open to talking to me. i do note that he hasn't mentioned the anthony thing to me yet, so i'm clearly below oracle in his pecking order (assuming it's real and oracle didn't make it up. if he made it up, i'll be so sad). the young writer, despite a shaky start between us, i would consider to be a good ally; we freely share info about not only theory, but concrete things like what players we're close to and which we want out. then there's suzy, who's more borderline; she's fun, but there's a lot i don't know about her and what she wants to do.

that leaves the two people that i don't know too well and can't say i trust a whole lot. every time i've tried to get to know sam better, it gets pretty much shot down. he's pretty much only interested in talking game, but i don't feel good about doing that without having gotten a feel for them first - how can i know he wouldn't just sell me out at the first opportunity? now, there are a lot of players who can just dive in headfirst, and i'm sure they would have a great time playing with sam. he's not doing anything 'wrong' exactly, it's more that our styles just clash. as for herman, the guy's just barely around sadly. he's actually willing to chat, but things move at glacial speed because of his schedule. i actually like what i've seen from him, but it doesn't outweigh the fact that his activity is really low, or change the fact that nobody here is particularly close to him.

[M. Gustave]

Confessional Prompt 9: What's your reaction to this challenge outcome?

first is that holy shit we got a ridiculously good solve and still only won by 1 guess! the other tribe has got to be feeling like they just can't win. that said, i'm not sure that losing would have been that bad for me, because the most likely boots are people that i have little to no connection with. whoever goes on the other tribe will forever be an enigma to me, someone whose posts i was never able to receive. apparently, this win has made me wax poetic.

[M. Gustave]

Confessional Prompt 10: How will this twist allowing you to communicate with the other tribe impact your game?

i like it! granted, having 15 people to message at once is... a lot, but i've been dying to learn about the other tribe and this is my first opportunity to. i don't think too many people will blab about their dynamics just yet, but planting seeds of future alliances never hurts.

speaking of messaging, i haven't heard from herman for about a week now. that's not fantastic. apparently sam has heard from him pretty regularly though, which is interesting.

[M. Gustave]

quick correction: it's been four days, not a week since i heard from herman. not a whole lot better, mind you!

[Captain Sharp]

Time flies when you're on a winning streak.

[M. Gustave]

Confessional Prompt 11: What is your plan for navigating this twist? Would being the stooge be a blessing or a curse for your game?

so, mutiny twist. didn't expect it! also could be good for herman or sam to get away from us for a while; sure, they could get pagonged, but for herman in particular, is it really much worse than where he is now? and maybe he could present himself as a vote for hire. sam is less likely to volunteer, because i don't think he realizes that he's in trouble, whereas herman definitely has to know.

being a stooge would be more likely a curse than a blessing, i think. the upside is that i could get to know rushmore better, and maybe earn some trust/gratitude with one faction. but the downside is i could easily end up a compromise vote if they call a ceasefire, and i have no items to save myself if they decide to do that. i wouldn't write myself off if i get kidnapped, but i would prefer to stay and so i'm not going to mutiny.

[M. Gustave]

i had a eureka moment a little earlier re: peter's misfire power. idk if i said so here or not, but madame d confirmed that peter had misfired, and said that he had a pellet in his arm. this confirmed to me that writer was telling the truth about misfiring giving an advantage. but i couldn't figure out what the advantage was... until i phrased a response about someone mutinying as them leaving. suddenly it clicked - a safety without power! the flavor would be him going to the hospital for an operation, making much more sense than any other commonly seen item.

i'm sure that this was very obvious and that i'm one of the last to figure this out, but let me pat myself on the back for a little while before i get let down. i'm not too good at guessing game design stuff yet.

[M. Gustave]

so, my spectator friends, things are happening now. to put it bluntly, all sorts of shit is happening!

word is being spread (by herman and/or anthony) that i supposedly want writer gone. this is completely not real. they claim to have heard it from sam, but the last time i even mentioned writer to him was the 7th, and it was to say that i liked him. so all three of them are people who i absolutely can't trust, but it's good to know that with some time to react.

i'm not sure why i became the target; do they think i'm stupid enough that targeting a guy with a known idol would be in character? or do they just think i'd be easier than the others? either way, it's annoying and i don't like it. on the bright side, assuming i plead my case well enough for people to not believe their lies, we should still have numbers on our side, even in a scenario where we lose one vote to the kidnap. i solidly believe that {writer, oracle, richie, duke} will believe me and stick with me on this vote, and feel somewhat less confident but still over 50% on suzy. happily, that's six, so even if we're down to 5 temporarily we're still good. we would need a trifecta of bad to happen for me to have no chance; fingers crossed.

[M. Gustave]

so, some corrections to last post, now that i have a calmer head before bed. there are two scenarios i consider plausible: the first, more likely one, which is that sam and herman are smearing me, and anthony isn't actually involved. it would make sense, if sam thought he had more support than he really does, to try to take heat off herman by smearing someone else, namely me. if anthony were with them, he had no reason to tell me about the lie, especially with so much time left.

scenario two is less likely, but i can't ignore it completely. in this one, sam and herman are innocent, and anthony is lying to smear them. it would be completely unnecessary, since those two were on the block already and anthony was totally fine. but anthony has literally mentioned to me that he 1) likes crazy moves, 2) gets bored easily, and 3) wanted to cause some mischief. painting a target on people already in trouble for no reason other than amusement sounds like mischief to me! if anthony really is the type who just likes to see the world burn, then it could be real. he might be chaotic neutral, but i don't know if he's 'chaotic stupid' as they say. (note: i don't think anthony is stupid in any case.)

[Wes Anderson]

Do you want to be kidnapped and taken to Rushmore? Regardless, someone from your tribe is going to be taken away by the pirates. If you don’t want it to be yourself, do you have a plan to make sure it’s not?

[M. Gustave]

i do not want to be kidnapped, i believe that the situation over here is under control and trading that for a tribe of strangers and danger sounds bad. for keeping it from being me, well, perhaps sam or herman volunteered now that their apparent plan has been exposed. failing that, i could try to force someone to volunteer, but that just feels ethically wrong and would hurt my soul; not going to do that, especially for a game. if i end up taken, i'll go in with a positive attitude and fight for my spot - worst case scenario, i get knocked out and get to see the spec forums (unless the jury starts really early this game).

[M. Gustave]

Confessional Prompt 12: How do you plan to work with your tribe post-kidnapping?

mostly the same i guess? i still would rather see sam, herman, and now anthony gone before any of the others go out. peter will add a new wrinkle, and it would be silly to just get rid of him instantly when he could end up being a key ally.

sam is getting the most votes tonight, i feel very confident. i've taken the brave/stupid move of telling peter this. i'm banking on the fact that, while he could sell me out, he has no particular incentive to do so. and if he really likes sam 'no chatting' shakusky better than me after a couple days, then so be it.

another potentially bold but very potentially stupid is me telling herman that i'm voting sam. was this an attempt at preemptive jury management, or was it to try to keep him onside? neither, it was because my spirit animal is a doormat.

i hate the feeling of people being angry or disappointed in me, it's just a facet of my personality. you might say that maybe this game isn't for me, but you'd be wrong. i love playing this game, strategizing, doing challenges, and getting to hang out with cool people. but when i have to vote out somebody that i had been on good, or even just decent terms with, it feels so bad. i'm learning to cope with it as i play more games, but sometimes, i take a risk and just speak honestly. will that hurt me in some games? absolutely. do i want to win? definitely. but i play for fun first and winning second, and winning by being someone people are legit angry with afterwards is nowhere near worth it to me.

[M. Gustave]

today has been hectic, so here's a quick rundown.

turns out peter has an extra vote, which was activated by writer of all people giving him his knife. why did he do that, ugh.
vote's been on sam, but i feared a tie so brought up maybe voting peter.
herman it turns out doesn't even like sam, and in fact wants to be in with me/suzy/oracle/writer. that's awesome, and i'm not even sure why i assumed he liked sam. stupid.
peter and anthony are trying to recruit people to 'shake things up' but neither herman nor duke feel like it. they claim duke is on the bottom, when... he isn't really.
oh, and peter put my name out there even though i'd been pretty open with him, so that's fun. not overly scared at this point though.

[M. Gustave]

oh god now sam is pleading with me not to vote him, aaaahhh the guilt

i'm not gonna switch but damn it a.t.e. hits me so hard... he claims he trusts me the most but there's no way that's true, he barely ever shared his plans with me, it's just desperation.

[M. Gustave]

mods, you don't even know how much that tiebreaker timer scared me, i thought it was for us. thankfully, everything worked out over here at least in the immediate short term.

i'm sorry sam.

[M. Gustave]

so peter claims that sam was the one who wanted me out. if that's true, then i'm guilt-free re: sam's pleas. that's the reality that makes me happiest, so i'll assume it's true. still doesn't change that peter voted against me though, and actions > words.

[M. Gustave]

this just in: richie tenenbaum exposed doing double-duty as mod and player; audiences and critics react. more at 11

so now i'm on trash island, and i'm overall happy with how it's gone for me. i've got oracle, i've got suzy, i've got herman... the only member of herman's proposed group not here is writer, who may have been a source of friction to begin with. anthony being here is a little awkward, he seems very sheepish but i've just been honest with him: i do like him but i don't really trust him, understandably. madame d seemed cool so it's nice to have her around, and now i'll get the opportunity to meet margot, since i didn't get around to messaging her during the shipwreck (bad me).

sadly, this means that there are still a whole lot of players that i haven't really met ahead of a merge. richie and writer being the lone original ivanhoes over there is scary for them, and indirectly me because both were working with me. hopefully they don't just pagong them, i don't necessarily plan on pagonging the rushmores after all.

[M. Gustave]

i guess the above was my answer to:
Confessional Prompt 13: How do you think you fared in the tribe swap?
written for posterity.