Episode Four

[Wes Anderson]

Previously, on Survivor... During a madcap challenge, Richie Tenenbaum slipped away to secure the hidden immunity idol.  Meanwhile, on Rushmore Academy, Klaus Daimler paid the price for not being affiliated with either side of the tribe.

In a team-oriented challenge involving cracking the numeric codes to each other's safes, both tribes got down to business. PMing ground to a halt as they worked tirelessly on the numbers.


The two tribes undertook two very divergent strategies.  Over on Rushmore Academy, Peter Whitman was able to use Rushmore's first two guesses two narrow the remaining options down to 32 discrete combinations.

Spoiler

Ok now I really should sleep, though working on the rest is tempting. I need to rest my shoulder from all the typing.

Fast method for anyone that wants a head start tomorrow, take the "accounts for a change of x from the shuffled position." and add that to the "y additional" for each of its options. If x + y does not equal at LEAST five, then that entire subgroup is impossible. The last 2 x's in the position can only have a change of 10 and the total change needs to be 15.

Example:

10. xxx89 change of 2
10.1 one additional (2 + 1 = 3) IMPOSSIBLE
10.2 zero additional (2 + 0 = 2) IMPOSSIBLE
10.3 four additional (2 + 4 = 6) POSSIBLE
10.4 two additional (2 + 2 = 4) IMPOSSIBLE
10.5 four additional (2 + 4 = 6) POSSIBLE
10.6 three additional (2 + 3 = 5) POSSIBLE

Sorry, forgot to exclude the rule that we know none of the 01234 was in the correct string. Please do consider forgiving me for my error.

1.
56822
56495
56592
56693
56527

2.
53793
55726

3.
53683
55683
54486

4.
55629

5.
86722
16751
26755
56725
26728

6.
96383
36783
26782
16585
26685
36385
36585
46485

7.
26599
26559
96529
56529
26829

8.
25785

9.
15719

10.
25589

32 possibilities left.

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Meanwhile, over at Camp Ivanhoe, Young Writer synthesized ideas from Oracle and Sam Shakusky to create a universal method that could be applied to any combination for a relatively quick solve.

Spoiler

Here are the basic principles of what I guess.

1. First Guess every number +3 and then every number -3, this is a possible combination and feels likely at least one will pop up. If one of these results gives over 4 numbers, then you just move them around while making valid combinations and slotting in a fifth number.

2. Next think go for a group you think has the remaining numbers, if very few of the +3/-3 appear, then you know that there need to be a good number of +/- 4s or 5s, since the only combos that add up to 5 are 4/1,3/2 and 5/0 and the lack of 3s means the only high numbers can be 4s and 5s. You should only need to guess one of these, maybe 2. Always go for the one with the most different digits.

3. From these the number correct will tell you the digits, and the in the right place will tell you the rough composition of the sum so far. Then you just start shuffling around with a guess on what you think happened but be careful to not have contradictory ideas (i.e if you know 3 of the first guess are in there, don't guess 4 of those numbers).

It's not super well defined but that's the jist.

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While Camp Ivanhoe would continue testing and refining their method throughout the day, Fox came in with the assist to Peter, and Rushmore Academy's approach cracked their opponents' combination in an astonishing four guesses.



The Camp Ivanhoe method had managed to crack test combinations in six moves during practice, and had showed the potential for a few five-move solves.  Thanks to owning the tiebreaker, however, they could win if they only scored a four.  What would happen when they finally tackled Rushmore's scrambled code?

See the results here


It was a heartbreaking result for a reeling Rushmore Academy tribe that had finally expected a win.  Rushmore had not only put up a remarkable score, but had gone toe-to-toe in tactics and effort with the powerhouse Camp Ivanhoe.  Unfortunately, it was not their day, and they returned to Tribal Council.

Fox once again set his sights on Madame D., after having been overruled in favor of previous targets in the past few votes.  Thinking that Royal was by this time a known "fake target," they selected Steve Zissou as the decoy vote to give non-alliance members.


Steve Zissou: Right now the plan is Max, Margot, Myself and Fox (Chairs Alliance I guess) + Buckley to vote for Madame.  Fox is going to tell Royal and Madame that I'm the target (I volunteered for this).  Madame goes home 6-2.

Peter Whitman at this point had tired of Fox's approach.


Meanwhile, the target of Madame D. was a non-starter for Chair Alliance member Margot Tenenbaum, and despite Steve's suggestion of turning on Fox, Margot began the pivot away from the Chair Alliance that had long been looming.  Margot began pulling her pieces together:

Margot Tenenbaum:
I have created a group chat "the rebellion" with both Madame D. and Peter Whitman to more easily coordinate our strike this round.
...
Buckley/Madame/Margot is officially an alliance.

The Alliances



_{Royal Tenenbaum is also closely linked with these clusters}

Madame D: I think Steve is going to have to be the vote, but I'm not actually sure that's worse for me than a Max vote anyway? There's something delightful in me making a move against Foxy all whilst voting for who they told me to vote for.

See what happens in Tribal Council.

Spoiler

Steve Zissou voted out 5-3 (three votes Madame D.).

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