Okay specs, let's have a giant dog shit so that we may pooper scooper it up after to see if I'm digging myself a hole of which I cannot climb out of. Either way, nothing wrong with getting a little dirty as we dig deeper.
Are these horrible gross dog puns doing it for you yet? No, well that's to bad because I'm about to bark your ears off.
Okay so first, I got Duke to reveal to me who told him he was getting votes. Kylie didn't log on from the end of the challenge until well after she was voted out. That means that there is a 99% chance she self-voted. This means that Duke got a vote from someone else on the tribe. And wouldn't you know Duke has somehow heard he was going to get a vote at this tribal council.
But from who you may ask?
Well don't worry, loose lips Oracle is about to share all the hot goss.
So long story short it was Anthony.
And the moment Anthony's name left Duke's lips, Oracle felt like a whole lot of confusing events over the last three rounds started making a ton of sense. For example, during Round 1 Herman claimed "someone" told him he was being discussed as a target, which sent him on a downward spiral to the point that Suzy had to reach out and actually pick him up.
Now, no one can say, and Herman's keeping this info close to his chest, however someone tipped him off. Who? Well I can't say with any certainty, but if Anthony told duke he was getting a vote that once again, no one heard this bit of information that I could tell, isn't it entirely possible that Anthony is the Duke voter? It seems very likely given Kylie did not vote.
And even though Duke told Oracle not to say anything to anyone.
Evil doggy grin.
Oracle of course has decided it's best to get the troops moving. What does that involve you ask? It involves spewing information to her two closest allies, Richie and M. Gustave. Of course Oracle prefaced this with "you can't tell anyone or I will lose my trust in Duke" but of course I don't give a dog shit if it gets out. If anything that will force Duke and I to split as a pair, and in combination with Anthony already being against Duke I could simply play it off as a Duke vs Anthony round which Anthony's already up everyone's ass sniffing like a fucking truffle pig. So that's great for me.
The other hand though, somehow Richie and M. Gustave don't say anything to anyone, which means I have two solid minions going forward that I can use to do my bidding. Which is a solid place to be and two solid allies to have. And then I can pocket Duke as my goat for later on.
Suzy and Anthony are genuinely a dangerous pair that I have to figure out how to navigate, but so long as we only have one more round on these tribes I think I should be able to skate by. I think Sam, Herman and Duke will all be topics of conversation before me because I've planted my social paws deep into everyone's backside to the point where I doubt I'd be a serious target any time soon. The only thing that could backfire is if Duke learns I spread his info to other people, but if I learned anything from my last game, if someone says they won't say dog shit to anyone, then they trust you and consider you a number one ally. If that gets out or leaks to anyone else, your trust in that person is as good as done and you can move on to greener pastures and just find different allies. I don't mind being at the bottom of a 5 person alliance at this stage in the game because I can just flip if they don't appreciate me the way I deserve to be appreciated.
Anyways, sorry I think 20 steps ahead. I also did one more little fun thing is that I created a fake scenario in which case the number 3944 came up. Could it be what really happened? Sure. But I haven't put any fucking stock into it. But if I seem like I am that shows Richie that I trust him with my "thoughts and information" and deeply binds him tighter to me.
God I'm so full of myself, but this game is just too much fun for passive nobodies. I haven't wanted to bring out my villainous side in years. Most games bore me with simple majorities and straightforward alliances. But no we have people who bid on things when they shouldn't, we have secret groups, no true majority, and no true direction. It's the perfect time to be a social villain on a tribe of smarty pants gamebots. I love it and I'm so excited to see how this all plays out.
Will it all come raining down on me? Will I get away with it all? Am I setting myself up for a big fall because I'm playing WAY too hard too soon? Well I'm clearly not the only one and I can't wait to see how this all plays out.
Trust tier:
1. M. Gustave-Words cannot describe how much I adore this man. He's one of my favorite allies ever and I can't wait for shit to hit the fan.
2. Richie-God I love Richie. IM SO SORRY I LOVE GUSTAVE MORE. But that doesn't mean I don't feel less about Richie, Gustave just gets me in a way I haven't gotten myself in years. However Richie is just a lovely person.
3. Duke-I need Duke. Duke does not need me though. In fact I'm like poison for Duke and he really should not trust me the way he has. But that's the amount of social effort I've put in with him that gets him to spill that tea.
4. Suzy-I adore Suzy. In another world where Anthony doesn't exist I would probably put her higher, but at this point in time she and him are just too close.
Middle Tier:
5. Sam-He's okay. I'm still not convinced that long term he will want to work with me and that's just fine.
6. Young Writer-I'll explain why YW is here, and it's because I came up with a mythological way that he could possibly be playing us all for fools right now based on mathematics. I've only shared this theory with Richie so far, but don't worry specs, all in good time ;)
Low Tier:
7. Herman-WHAT HERMAN ISN'T LAST?! The fuck Oracle? I want whatever drugs you are taking. For the record, I don't hate Herman, I just don't trust him. He's a gamebot and that's totally fine! However it doesn't allow a lot of room for me to sink my social paws in to him and he's probably the only person on the tribe immune to my charms and I can't seriously see him trusting me in return. If he does, I will be baffled.
8. ANTHONY-OH MY GOD ANTHONY WHY ARE YOU TRYING TO PLAY JURY MANAGEMENT IN THE PRE-JURY PHASE? IT'S ROUND FUCKING 3 GET A GRIP AND GET AHOLD OF YOURSELF BECAUSE THE WALLS ARE CRUMBLING DOWN AROUND YOU. I SEE YOU NOW FOR WHO YOU REALLY ARE AND WITH ANY LUCK SO DO MY MINIONS. BAHAHAHAAHA YOU DUN FUCKED UP TRYING TO PLAY JURY MANAGEMENT WITH DUKE. I don't trust Anthony as far as I can throw him. I even suspect Anthony might be one of the mystery bidders, though that's a stretch without more information. Either way, I think Anthony trusts me and that's literally the only thing I have going for me against him right now. In hindsight, it's perhaps smarter to have not blabbed to Richie, but I needed to bond him close to me because I was afraid I was starting to lose him based on conversation. But I reeled him back in after that revelation. Oh Anthony, you really shouldn't have given me ammunition to work against you. You almost had me, but I'm onto you ;)
Okay that's a good enough update for the night, I shall now get some much needed sleep after a day of not doing a challenge.
But before I go, here's a nice fun little PM conversation where I plant a little seed of doubt about Young Writer in the Brain of Richie...who CLAIMS that I'm over thinking it and it's mathematically solvable, but I don't care I think it's my best work in this game yet and it's somewhat compelling.
So I leave you with this fun little conversation specs:
Spoiler
Let's pretend the following is true.
1. One of the bidders and one of the non-bidders lied about what they did during the auction.
2. Myself, you, Suzy and Herman are telling the truth about only bidding the minimum.
3. Kylie (RIP), Gustave, and two of Sam/Anthony/Duke are telling the truth about not bidding.
4. Young Writer won a chunk of items, but most of them were duds.
5. One of Sam/Anthony/Duke are lying and bid everything.
If the above 5 conditions are true (I know it's a lot just roll with me), then the following must be true:
Minimum bidders: 7 + 10 + 13 + 21 = 51
Did not bid: 500 + 500 + 500 + 500 = 2000
The remainder of the minimum bidders: 493 + 490 + 487 + 479 = 1949
Now, if we add the did not bid and the remainder from the minimum bidders we get: 2000 + 1949 = 3949 which is only 5 off the number that displayed...which if any of the minimum bidders decided to add 5 additional coins for some reason (padding to win perhaps?), we get the magical 3944.
I'm just sitting here blinking as I'm looking at this going, no this can't be what happened. But the other part of me is just dumbfounded that somehow if I take away assumption and just look at numbers, this is what I get.
If Writer is lying about his own bids and having these items given to him, that is such an elaborate and multi phase lie I would want to award him an Oscar. It is a possibility though and I grant you that mathematically the evidence points that way if someone else did drop a full 500 on a single item.
The thing that gets me though is that 5 remainder. If anyone with a declared item to bid for did up their bid by 5 that would have been nothing anybody would hold against them and I think they would have mentioned it when we were all grousing together in the thread about not getting our items. I also think that, with the opening we left for bad actors to make their move, it's less likely anyone went all in with 500 on a single item and more likely they spread out across several items or even all the items with bids in the 100s and 200s. And there's no reason to think even those mystery bidders used every dollar towards items. They might have taken a shot or two at items but also left some towards immunity. It was their butt on the line if we lost immunity too, after all.
So I don't know, I fear we're trying to force something to fit a pattern that might not be a sensical pattern at all. If someone did a scatter shot of bids and left a bit for immunity too it's never going to add up right for us without the insider information.
Topic: Round 3: Winning Without Doing Anything WOOF! (Read 138 times)
