Survivor: Wes Anderson
Previous Tribes => Camp Ivanhoe => Topic started by: Wes Anderson on September 02, 2021, 07:06:07 am
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Welcome to Camp Ivanhoe!
(https://i.imgur.com/jVJxFxQ.png)(https://i.imgur.com/MezNbLE.png)(https://i.imgur.com/sHUqxh9.png)(https://i.imgur.com/AZ8lkTx.png)(https://i.imgur.com/8xjWpTN.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/2Ngbbhr.png)(https://i.imgur.com/PZcSIUa.png)(https://i.imgur.com/YalZ44k.png)(https://i.imgur.com/IMGV7WA.png)(https://i.imgur.com/eih9tp1.png)
Tribe:
Anthony Adams, Duke, Herman Blume, Kylie, M. Gustave, Oracle, Richie Tenenbaum, Sam Shakusky, Suzy Bishop, and Young Writer
This is your tribal forum, where you can talk publicly together as a tribe. Get to know your new tribemates!
This is also the forum where Tribal Council will take place.
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Bark bark!
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Oh, hey.
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There are rather a lot more people than I am used to seeing! Welcome, all of you.
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G'day everyone ;)
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Greetings, compatriots! Here is to getting to know everyone!
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Hey everyone
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good to meet you all!
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Hello peoples
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*and animals
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Hi everyone. Nice to meet you.
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I’m separated from my computer and my dumb phone is having a hard time with this mobile site. I will respond to you all shortly. Apologies!
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Good morning all excited to play!
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I am heading out for a couple hours and will respond to pms when I am back!
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I also have to take off for a bit. I'll check in soon.
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I'm going to bed!! See you all in the morning.
Yours,
Suzy
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I seem to have come down with a doggy headache.
I'm going to take advantage of the night off to get some sleep and respond to people tomorrow.
Bark bark! Thanks for understanding.
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Just wanted to say bark bark bark! Good morning everyone!
I just woke up after a really long headache filled night. I'll be around in a bit to say hi! Tail wag.
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Sorry! I've got a real busy day today, I haven't gotten to respond to anyone. I'll do my best when I get home!
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Does anyone want to sit out? I don't mind sitting out if everyone else wants to participate.
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I would like to participate :)
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I want to participate. I have several ideas about how to approach it already. If no one volunteers to sit out by tomorrow morning, I suggest we make a poll and vote on who sits.
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i'm in to participate, and i've done a few experiments to test for delays. most common seems to be about one full second from my system clock to the post's timestamp, maybe others should try this as well if they haven't already.
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Ah, I didn't want to test anything until we decided :I
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You should decide who is sitting out before you discuss the challenge.
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Add me to the want to participate list.
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Also want to participate.
Also will get to PMs in a couple hours, sorry comrades.
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I haven't gotten a chance to really look at the challenge yet. I had something going on but I'm around now, sorry to anyone who was waiting on me. Let me read it over. But I'm happy to sit or participate, whatever people want.
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We should definitely decide asap
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So if I've seen the posts correctly:
Participating-Anthony, Herman, M. Gustave, Sam, Young Writer, Oracle
Will participate or sit-Suzy
Have not heard from-Richie, Duke, Kylie
I'll go ahead and move to participating since I know I'm around for the remainder of tonight and tomorrow to be able to participate and will just defer the strategy to others and go along with it.
So we just need to know which of Suzy/Richie/Duke/Kylie is sitting?
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I'll participate, I'm out tonight but I'll be around all day tomorrow and happy to follow any strategy the tribe comes up with
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I want to participate.
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Okay so then one of Duke or Suzy will sit.
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Has Duke been around? I definitely don’t mind sitting out but maybe I should participate if we haven’t heard from him?
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Sitting Duke wouldn't be the worst as it would allow us to discuss strategy.
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if we have the power to sit him out without his say-so, maybe we should just so we make sure we have time to finish the challenge.
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I'm going to let you all make that decision. I will do my best to wake up as early as possible tomorrow to get in on everything.
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/sitout
I'm not really going to be around today, so I'm okay with that. Should be here more tomorrow and going forward from there!
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Okay I'm here and ready to talk to strategy!
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Using this thread to test for forum delay is all I got.
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I think we shouldn't directly aim at any of the squares on the edge of the image so nobody has a miss that puts them off the target range entirely
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I think Gustave was able to test out a shooting by clock method that was effective. We may be able to practice and take riskier shots. I think we need to determine a shooting order or at least our last couple shooters since that is the tiebreaker. Is anyone not going to be around closer to the end of the challenge?
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I'm going to be here the whole time. I'll also be practicing quite a bit in my confessional.
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I've tried 10 times now and seems like 3/5 times it gets posted on the X1 seconds. Is it worth it to go for something like A4 where even if a mistake happens, it still gets 6 points?
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Yes definitely. If everyone is able to practice, the people who are most confident should go last and aim for the corners or bullseye. I would like to go towards the beginning because I don't necessarily trust I'd be able to guarantee an accurate shot.
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What about practicing to hit a corner shot via a deliberate "miss"? Like aiming at B2 but going for a 5 on the second counter so your shot is up and left. That way you've got a chance at the high value swuare but a miss miss still lands on the board.
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B2 and F6, then B6 and F2, seem overall like the best shots to take for the value of the surrounding numbers.
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So I think purposefully aiming wrong could be a strategy here
For example if you aim at G7; 1 is 10 points, 2 is 0 points, and 0 is 0 points
But if you aim and G6 and aim for a 2; 2 is 10 points, 3 is 5 points, and 1 is 4 points
Also, it would put the correct shot and the complete miss fire shot apart from each other
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After testing my "aim" trying to hit those elusive last digit seconds I've discovered my internet is not reliable enough and I'd like to be an early shooter
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Apologies, last night was quite busy for me (as is today but it doesn't become busy for a few hours). The smartest thing would be to figure out what everyone's "range" seems to be and aim for spots where the 3-5 values add up to the most points I would guess. The players with the most consistent results in timing should go last, since they will have the most misfire spaces around. However I think we absolutely want to have the 10s and 15 as a possibility each and every time, getting all of those and the nines is the "perfect board". Alternatively we could skip the trying for 15 and try for the 4 10s and 4 9s and expect misses to work out well.
We really need someone with a degree in mathematics around for this.
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So I think purposefully aiming wrong could be a strategy here
For example if you aim at G7; 1 is 10 points, 2 is 0 points, and 0 is 0 points
But if you aim and G6 and aim for a 2; 2 is 10 points, 3 is 5 points, and 1 is 4 points
Also, it would put the correct shot and the complete miss fire shot apart from each other
I agree with this. It allows for the most profitable margin of error should you not hit the exact second you're trying for.
Most important thing is for everyone to practice and say what their level of confidence is so we can put our best shooters last.
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It's taking anywhere from 2 to 5 seconds for my posts to hit the board from the time I click, so I'll need to lead my shot and have a target where there's a healthy range of decent outcomes. I'd definitely like to be aiming for the 3 to 5 second area so I'm not in danger of lagging all the way to a 0.
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It's taking anywhere from 2 to 5 seconds for my posts to hit the board from the time I click, so I'll need to lead my shot and have a target where there's a healthy range of decent outcomes. I'd definitely like to be aiming for the 3 to 5 second area so I'm not in danger of lagging all the way to a 0.
If it's consistently 2-5 seconds that's fortuantely only a 3 seconds range at least. Anyway, performing some test shots then I shall get on my responses to everyone.
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Here to report I should be at the back of the order. 8/12 of my shots were at the exact right second, 4 of them being 1 second after where I intended.
Example: 8
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Here to report I should be at the back of the order. 8/12 of my shots were at the exact right second, 4 of them being 1 second after where I intended.
Example: 8
Look at this guy calling his shot like Babe Ruth. I am hitting post at what should be 0 seconds. Let's see how we do....
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Hmmm, I may try to help my aim. Checking the rules taking a shot at the center will either be a 15 or a 1 with my accuracy. I don't mind taking a risk and shooting soon if y'all prefer, since i think once the center is done everything else is grouped to have at least decent misses. Will try another 10 attempts in my confessional to gauge my confidence on such a move.
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9/10 were accurate. I think I have this down.
Test: 5
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Another 9/10. I think it's worth risking the 1/10 for a 1 to get the 15 done and make everything easier, also I'm not sure how long this proper headspace will last.
Test: 7
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We should also keep track of how much we are 1 second off like writer
Will be practicing when I get home
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I'd like to try and shoot at the middle, if that's ok!
If someone else feels like they can do it, I don't mind switchying.
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I just got 10 in a row, though I did have to recalibrate my aim a bit before that. I will try to be around late as if we are fine with me shooting for 15, it is best to have it happen at the very end based on the tiebreaker.
Test: 2
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Yes, you seem to be the best shot so I think having you aim at the bullseye last makes the most sense. Should we start making a shooting order and get this going?
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I'm awake now. Weren't we going to do some practice or discuss strategy first?
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If anyone wants to go between a 2 second margin they can go for one of the 9-6 spots
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Wait I'm confused, where are we practicing or attempting this?
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Um both?
We have to do this today
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Wait I'm confused, where are we practicing or attempting this?
I made a thread in my confessional for it
Test: 8
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The official attempt needs to be in the public thread though.
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Okay so I'm happy to do stuff, but I need someone to describe what's the strategy here or how to do this.
I just post once for something, and then post again for something to be clear?
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It's one post?
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So I get that to aim you post
D2 or whatever, but what do you do to fire? That doesn't inherently make sense to me.
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So to fire you just post. The seconds on the timestamp of your post determines what happens.
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So for example if I were to go:
D2
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So for example if I were to go:
D2
Oh okay so that would have been a spot on D2 due to the number ending in :51?
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well I look at the seconds (51) which means it's an X1
which according to the chart is a Direct Hit! so we get D2 marked off. BUT if instead that was at 52 it'd miss low and hit D3.
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well I look at the seconds (51) which means it's an X1
which according to the chart is a Direct Hit! so we get D2 marked off. BUT if instead that was at 52 it'd miss low and hit D3.
Thank you for taking the time to help me figure that out. I'm going to go practice for a bit in my confessional, promise I won't take long.
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So I may have just figured out a strategy. I'm going to use my next post to test, make sure this is somehow not against the rules and then share.
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If this works, buy me a bone
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Perhaps the 2nd time is the charm?
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Just to be sure that last one wasn't a fluke.
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Okay so I'm not sure if this is allowed, but I actually figured out how to sync up my shots with the board timer.
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My issue remains that my net lag is inconsistent so I'm not going to be aiming for one of the high priority targets that needs a direct hit and I'd like to go early in the rotation so you folks with better aim potential can avoid wherever I hit
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Based on a clock being allowed using the board timer is almost certainly even more allowed. I tend to use https://time.is/
Which if it isn't allowed for the actual attempt the mods should likely tell me.
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Test shot
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Oh yeah using the board timer to sync this is easy. I just got 3/4, though I was a little trigger happy the first time I tried it because I was excited this was working.
Tail wag, bark bark.
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I am off for a couple hours, I think I got almost everyone but I will be back around like an hour and a half before deadline, we should likely have people start taking shots relatively soon.
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Yeah I can pretty consistently get that magic number. I just have to not get trigger happy. I'm ready to do this.
How I did the timer sync on the board, was that I was in my confessional and figured out what numbers correspond to the numbers that show up when I post.
So for example if at :x7 seconds I clicked "post" and got a time that ended in :x3, then I would know I needed to press "post" at :x9 in order to get a time that ends in :x1.
Not very complicated, what I will say is because of delay I had to wait a fracture of a second or so before posting so I didn't get the accidental :x0 time.
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As a test post, TEST
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when it actually let me post I got 3 1s, 1 2, and 1 6 because my internet is terrible, but now it's starting to block my posts :I
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Only got the time to peak my head right now.
The planning looks good, I had been planning to use the board timer as well.
I'll shoot and catch up on messages like an hour before deadline. I don't want to be shooting the bullseye but other than that I'm good with whatever.
Test: 1
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Oh no that's not great.
Test post 2
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Test post bullseye!
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So based on what has been posted so far we have, I think, in no particular order yet:
Early shooters: me, Anthony, Richie, Kylie
Late shooters: Sam, Writer
Undecided: Oracle, Suzy, Gustave
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I'm good to go whenever. Also I feel pretty confident I can nail this.
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I think I should go for the 9-6s at the moment, I hit 1 around 40% of the time but I can hit 1 or 2 80% of the time currently
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But it's getting close to deadline, so if it comes to it, we made need to shoot whenever available, even out of order
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If no one else wants to go for the bullseye I'd be happy to do it.
Test: Bullseye bark bark!
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Okay so I'm not sure if this is allowed, but I actually figured out how to sync up my shots with the board timer.
Based on a clock being allowed using the board timer is almost certainly even more allowed. I tend to use https://time.is/
Which if it isn't allowed for the actual attempt the mods should likely tell me.
This is fine! As long as you are submitting the post yourself and don’t have a script doing it for you, you’re good.
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I’m ready to go whenever! I was using a different clock I found online but I’m going to practice with the timer suggested.
I think I can hit the bullseye most times as well.
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So with the 1 target per person rules, we can get a maximum of 91 if I've mathed it correctly. 15 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9.
In my opinion, if you are not as confident maybe go for the 9s or 8s? If you are more confident and not going for the bullseye go for the 10s?
Just as a strategy thought.
Anyways I'm here till deadline. I'll go whenever.
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We should prolly never aim directly for it so we don't hit a 0 going for a 1
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i'm pretty confident in my timing, so i should probably go towards the end. all my tests have been about 1 second after my system clock.
test: 0
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oh, sometimes it's actually less than one second, that complicates things... first time that's happened for me. perhaps i should be middle order.
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We should probably get started then to make sure most of us get a shot. Does one of the early timers want to kick us off?
I'm happy to go later.
Test
And yeah don't jump the gun if you follow the timer sync strat. Wait like a hairline fraction longer than you normally would or it'll give you 0.
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Well that was a fail test. Let me try again.
Test!
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I'll go first if no one else wants to just tell me where to aim. Testing for a 1....
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I can go first too, I'm going to try to get the ten at A1 10 via targeting the 8 at B2
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Fortunately your aim came through when the moment counted!
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yes, well done richie! i'll be around for quite a while yet, so we can afford to hold my shot in reserve if we need to.
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I have a feeling my internet is gonna mess things up at the worst time :I
Also, congrats
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That's why they call me Trick Shot Tenenbaum
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Going for the 15 diagonally might help if for some reason the loading is way off as it has a higher average that way.
Finally have a lot of time now :)
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We should only have one of the last people go for the 15 since the later we get it, the better we do on the tiebreaker
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Going to attempt my shot now. Aiming for B6, trying to miss and hit the 10
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Went 1 second early dammit
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2 down 7 to go. Who's next?
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i'm getting pulled away to do stuff with a young relative. i don't know how long i'll be gone, so i'm going to shoot next. i'm going to try to hit g1 by missing f2.
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success! gl to everyone else, and i'll see you in a while.
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I will go soon, am practicing right now
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:I There's like a 10% chance it goes around 4 seconds off from lag
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I can go after Anthony! good luck!!
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Ok, I had it around 70% on point and 30% 1 off, but then the internet started not working and so I think I'll wait for my internet to clear and now it's just random between 1 through 5 :I
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Ms. Bishop you can go if you want :I
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Okay! I'm going to practice for a couple more minutes and then try!
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Okay so left is Anthony, Young Writer, Sam, Kylie and myself.
I believe we've hit 10, 10, 6, 5 for a total of 31 so far.
Probably good to go after the other two tens if possible but if you aren't feeling confident the 9 is probably safer.
I'm going to hop in the shower for a bit, but I'll only be gone 30 minutes or so.
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I'm getting mainly 2/5
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So G6, might should be my shot?
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So G6, might should be my shot?
With the idea that you'll miss and get 1 below for the 10?
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If I go for the other 10 a 5 will get me off the board, but G6 will get me a 4 if 5 happens
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If I go for the other 10 a 5 will get me off the board, but G6 will get me a 4 if 5 happens
I see. That makes sense to me. I think at this point if you feel that is the best odds of getting that ten go for it.
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Cheering you on!!
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I did it! :D :D :D
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Woooooot!
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Great shooting Anthony great job adapting to your internet issues. Has anyone heard from Kylie at all?
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Have not heard from Kylie.
Great job Anthony!!!
Young Writer, Sam or Kylie, any of you feel confident in going for the bullseye or the last 10?
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If my internet is the same i'm very confident in the bullseye
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If my internet is the same i'm very confident in the bullseye
I'm also quite confident in my internet right now. I've been practicing throughout and have pretty consistently gotten that 1. If you want the bullseye I can go for that last 10.
But we should see where Sam and Kylie are. How long are you around for?
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I am abput to be out at dinner atm but will return before deadlibe. Or i can fire now
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I am abput to be out at dinner atm but will return before deadlibe. Or i can fire now
Well as anthony pointed out the later we go for the bullseye the more likely we are to win the tiebreaker. So it just depends. If you are confident you will be back we can hold off, if not and you aren't sure if you'll be back, you could do the 10 now and I can do the bullseye later.
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I'll just do the 10 now, otherwise dinner will be stress
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I'll just do the 10 now, otherwise dinner will be stress
Sounds good I'll keep practicing for the bullseye until Sam or Kylie respond.
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So we hit all of the 10s? :D
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We sure did! Amazing job to all four of you!
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Just an fyi, I know we have less than an hour. I'm waiting for Sam and Kylie. If we don't hear from them in about 30-40 minutes I'll probably just go to secure the points.
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Gonna shoot once when I figure out where to aim.
(I'm not shooting the bullseye)
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Gonna shoot once when I figure out where to aim.
(I'm not shooting the bullseye)
Hey Sam! Welcome. All 10s have been claimed and you can see the board for where the other two shots ended up. I'm going to be going for the bullseye, if you could see how you do and go for one of the 9s if you feel confident! Tail wag.
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There are two general strategies that were discussed. Let me know if you need me to find and requote them to help.
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I'm sorry, I just missed it, I did a bunch of practice in my confessional :c
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You tried. It was close. That's how it goes sometimes. I'll just have to make sure I hit it! :)
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Oracle, are you sure sure that you're gonna hit the bullseye?
Like should I save my shot for after you in case you miss since we're the only ones with shots left?
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Oracle, are you sure sure that you're gonna hit the bullseye?
Like should I save my shot for after you in case you miss since we're the only ones with shots left?
At this point it's just you and me.
I have practiced in private 36 times and gotten a time with 1 31 times. I fixed an error early on when I got 3 0s and was consistent until just moments ago when I mysteriously got a couple 2s.
I'm going to practice a little bit longer. But 31/36 is pretty good.
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If you think it's better for me to go now and then you, let me know.
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I went for D1 and missed oops. Luckily only 3 points lost.
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Okay wish me luck all. I'm going to practice a couple more times just to be safe.
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good luck dog, hit that bullseye dead center!
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So I was about to shoot and Wes Anderson did a duplicate post so it didn't post. I'm waiting for him to stop so I can go.
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Ah, if that happened to me, it would be hard to get the courage to try again :I
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Oh my god I'm shaking.
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Well we got all 4 10s and the 15. Everyone participated. We did our best. Good luck team!
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yes, well done and great shooting! even when we didn't hit what we wanted, we planned it out well enough that those misses still got us a decent number of points. credit to all the people who were active in planning.
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I would be rather surprised if 73/91 loses.
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I would be rather surprised if 73/91 loses.
I was really hoping we'd hit at least 70 and we got there! Tail wag.
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Great job sharpshooters. Win or lose that was an awesome team effort.
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I still think we did a really great job team. It does sting a lot to lose by a mere 1 point :(
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I finished dinner but am very preoccupied tonight, good thing I fired before I left. The defeat by such a slim margin is regrettable, but we must go on.
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I need to step away for a few minutes. I put a lot of pressure on myself to get the bullseye and I need to take a few minutes to de stress.
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Go do that, Oracle, you did great :)
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My internet is being a bit weird so I will be back later after dinner to also figure this out. Glad it held up ok for the challenge.
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Going to be out at the aquarium most of the day, will reply to messages when I get back
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Ah, I do hope we funded it enough for it to be marvelous! :P
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Ah, I do hope we funded it enough for it to be marvelous! :P
Bark bark! You beat me to the joke darn it!
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Apologies compatriots. I should be on periodically today until about 30 minutes until deadline, at which point I must depart for Literature and Lassos, my weekly book club where we also compete in rodeo to determine who chooses the book for next week.
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I’m going to a dinner with a friend visiting from out of town! I’m not sure when I’ll be back and won’t really be checking what’s going on.
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Hey everyone! Looks like we get to be part of the camp another round hooray!
As a note, I am not available at the time of the live challenge, so if others are around and able to do this I would gladly volunteer not to be one of the 5 going.
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Given my internet issues, I don't think it would be wise for me to do a real-time battle. :I
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I am available for the challenge time tomorrow so put me in coach
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I don't want to sit out of two in a row, so count me in for this one.
I'm having a little difficulty understanding the rules exactly, but I assume we can discuss it?
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If I'm understanding this correctly, the main point scoring is by empty quoting numbers divisible by 3 on the active pages (10, 15 and 20) in the live challenge thread. Elsewise this is mostly a shitposting challenge.
We can divvy up responsibilities among our five though. Like, initial suggestion: two people be responsible for posting agreed upon divisible by 3 numbers and two others responsible for watching for and empty quoting those specific posts. Then the fifth person is a floater there to try to snipe scoring numbers posted by the other team.
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I definitely need to sit this challenge out because A.) I can't guarantee I'd be free at that exact time and 2.) I would not be able to post fast enough on just a phone.
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Y'all know the add the digits trick, right?
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i'll contribute to this challenge. i think richie is reading the challenge correctly.
i'm not sure my reaction time is elite, so i'd probably be best as a number poster rather than as a quoter or 'sniper.'
pedit: thank you for reminding me about that anthony, that'll help a lot for everyone
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Here is what we have so far:
Definitely in for the challenge: Richie, Duke, Gustave
Definitely sitting out for the challenge: Oracle, Herman, Anthony
Not yet responded: Suzy, Sam, Young Writer
2 of the not yet responded people need to participate or someone in the sitting out category is going to have to go in.
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Unfortunately I will be unable to participate at deadline tomorrow.
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So we first need to ask if Sam and Suzy are both available and able to participate, and then I think if one or both cannot two of us are going to have to bite the bullet and attempt it.
I personally will not be available due to to work that ends approximately one and a half hours after the deadline is over.
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I am a big question mark on availability that time tomorrow but have a higher chance of making it work than the people who've already requested to sit out.
Basically count me as in but if I don't show up have Anthony sub.
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:) Okay
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So to add to the adding digits trick you can ignore any 0, 3, 6 or 9 while adding since it has no effect on the remainder; if it only contains those, then it's a multiple of 3, I believe
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Currently:
Definitely in for the challenge: Richie, Duke, Gustave
Should be here for the challenge: Sam
Back up in case someone isn't here for challenge: Anthony
Definitely sitting out for the challenge: Oracle, Herman, Young Writer
Not yet responded: Suzy
We shall see what Suzy says.
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A most interesting and somewhat dissapointing occurence has happened. After returning home in my inventory someone sent me both the dog flu serum and the schematics. Unfortunately the mods won't confirm to me who sent them, and I can only assume they were sent to me to publically disclose what they did.
The Dog Flu Serum was a complete and utter dud, containing flavor text equivalent to my pocket knife. The Schematics themselves was a slight hint to the next challenge, mentioning that anyone who purposely misfires might actually provide a small personal benefit to players if they can reuse the bullets.
The latter is interesting as I don't believe anyone on our tribe misfired here (so thank you whoever had this for not purposely throwing away your shot), but one person did misfire on the other tribe...so we should look out for them.
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I’m waiting for the train to come home. I can participate in the challenge but haven’t read any of the rules or such.
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that's some interesting information, writer. i think it was peter who misfired, or am i remembering wrong?
the question is who you got that stuff from. could kylie have handed it over before she was voted out? that would require her to have actually bid on items instead of putting all 500 in, like i had previously assumed.
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that's some interesting information, writer. i think it was peter who misfired, or am i remembering wrong?
the question is who you got that stuff from. could kylie have handed it over before she was voted out? that would require her to have actually bid on items instead of putting all 500 in, like i had previously assumed.
The Timestamp from the mods is about 10 minutes after deadline, so I would say while possible with execessive mod delays, it's unlikely Kylie sent them.
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I don't believe Kylie was online at all today so it seems extremely unlikely.
Looking back at the challenge, it's not clear if Peter's miss was a misfire or not. It's described as missing the target area, rather than misfiring.
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Also, both of the items are useless to whoever had them now, so that prolly isn't a coincidence
... I suppose that means they have 3 useful items then?
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Oh wow I just saw all of this. Once again Young Writer thank you for confirming all of this. The more information we have on this tribe about those items the better.
So that means we know two items were duds, one was maybe useful if the person who had it had actually outed it. Kind of weird to be honest. A lot of why and how this happened doesn't make a lot of sense.
Either way, at least we know as a tribe.
Okay so as far as the challenge goes it sounds like Suzy, Gustave, Richie and Duke for sure will participate. Sam in theory will participate, but in case Sam isn't here Anthony is on standby to sub in?
I'm going to read over the challenge momentarily and give my thoughts after, but it sounds like you all have already started giving out thoughts and ideas.
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By the way I'm eating right now I'll respond to people after I'm done.
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Okay so I have an idea for this challenge that should give us a strategic advantage.
The main time sink of this challenge seems to be from figuring out what to post, and deciphering posts by the other tribe. As such this challenge is easiest if we break it up into a couple roles.
As such I suggest we have 2 Posters, 2 Decipherers/Scouts, and one Cherry Picker.
The Posters will post numbers, but should have some sort of predetermined behavior/lists of numbers already made (such as one only posting multiples of 3). The Cherry Picker will quote all of the posts from our side that are multiples of 3, which they should be able to do way faster than the other tribe.
The Decipherers/Scouts will have the hard job of figuring out which of the opponents posts to quote, and should be very careful to note any patterns in their posting habits, since if we're doing it, they might be as well.
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i'll be a poster, if nobody minds. i was thinking of, for my first post and every three after that (posts 1, 4, 7, ...) i would include a multiple of 3, and for the rest they would be decoy numbers. does anyone think that's too simple of a pattern? i wouldn't want anybody on our side to get confused by my stuff, but opponents stealing our points is just as bad.
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can I have the dog flu serum
dog flu is a big thing on the isle of dogs
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From what I read on the thread, the posts you quote have to be on that same page, right? And there's only 25 posts total allowed there. I think speed is going to be so important that it's not worth combing through the opponents' posts for multiples of three - it's more important to have everyone working together to score our own guaranteed points.
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I agree with duke that it's going to come down to speed since all points are scored on specific pages. But I still think we should have at least one scout aiming to pick off scoring posts from the other tribe. I can take on that role, I'm reasonably confident in my mental arithmetic to quickly crunch the digit counting method.
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I'm home from work now and will be around through the challenge time. Does anyone want to try some practice in a new tribal thread between now and then? Our non participating players can jump in there to act as the opposition?
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our participants are: me, richie, duke, suzy, and sam, with anthony as backup. is that correct?
i'd be down to practice if you want, but it seems a little weak if we don't have a full contingent of people.
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I can be opposition, if you want.
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i'll be a poster, if nobody minds. i was thinking of, for my first post and every three after that (posts 1, 4, 7, ...) i would include a multiple of 3, and for the rest they would be decoy numbers. does anyone think that's too simple of a pattern? i wouldn't want anybody on our side to get confused by my stuff, but opponents stealing our points is just as bad.
I think an easier rule would be something like 'if there is a 5 or a 4 as the 4th digit, the number is divisible by three'
so have a list of numbers ready that fit that pattern, and then just throw in random spam outside of that
Either that or for the very first time we do it, we just have it so every post is a multiple of three and try to go quickly enough with the quotes that by the time they've figured that out, the page is already over, and then we can switch up our strategy after that?
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Can do a test run, whatever the case.
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i like your first idea best, duke. so attention everybody!
whenever i post a number, if the fourth digit is a 4 or a 5, know that it is a good number to quote!
i'll make a reference post full of goods and bads next. how many digits do you think would be a good size? i'm thinking six or seven.
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We should go for a decent number of multiples of 3 so that we can get more self points, no?
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i'll make a reference post full of goods and bads next. how many digits do you think would be a good size? i'm thinking six or seven.
Has to be under 100,000, so we'll have to go with 5 maximum. I think going five every time is the way to go though, just to make it a bit more difficult for them.
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From what I’m seeing, you all understand the challenge correctly, but to be completely safe, here is some additional explanation:
To earn points a multiple of 3 will have to be posted on page 10 and then also quoted on page 10, or posted on page 15 and also quoted on page 15, etc. Quoting a multiple of three from a previous page is a neutral move (+0), just like quoting a multiple of 3 that someone already quoted.
You can repeat the same number all you want. You could do the whole challenge solely using the number 3. As long as your are the first to quote a particular post from page 10 onto page 10, etc, you will earn points.
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I'm reading the rules but feeling so so confused. I'd love to practice if we can??
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thanks for that duke, i missed that rule. 5 digits it is.
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Hmm
What if instead of signaling safe numbers in the numbers, we signal them on non active pages, well, that might be too confusing, scratch that :I
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I don't know if we've fully organized the roles yet but I'd like to be a number poster as well because I do not trust my ability to do math quickly.
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my numbers thread is up now, btw. feel free to use it for yourself or make a list of your own.
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The more I think about this, the more I think the first contested page (Page 10) we should just do all divisible by three. Have two players shadowing our own posters, one each, and *immediately* quoting anything they see their assigned person post. And have the last person try to snipe quote the other side.
And then for page 15 we go to the 4th digit being 4/5 strategy? And hopefully they've been lulled into thinking everything we post will be divisible by 3, so we can start out with something wrong and see if they trip up.
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So something like:
On page 10, M. Gustave and Suzy make as many posts as possible which are *all* divisible by 3. I'm constantly refreshing and watching for Gustave's posts, and Sam/Anthony (whoever is here) is constantly refreshing and watching for Suzy's posts, with both of us immediately quoting any we see. Richie is trying to find correct numbers posted by the other side.
On page 15, M. Gustave and Suzy both start off with a wrong number, then vary it up, making sure to keep to the 'only divisible by 3 if the 4th digit is 4 or 5' scheme. I'll watch out for those and immediately quote the ones that fit, Sam/Anthony will switch to being a decipherer and will aim to snipe the other side's numbers alongside Richie.
Keep that pattern for page 20.
Thoughts?
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And then... we can go back to everything being multiples of 3 on page 20 :P
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i definitely like this plan from duke, and would be happy to do it.
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I will also be using the numbers that M. Gustave put together!
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about half an hour until the start - make sure you're situated and won't have to get up for a few minutes if at all possible!
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I like it! Keep in mind that there is a flood control on posting frequency too.
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Yeah, 10s I think? Might be worth the posters making sure their assigned quoter posted at least 10 seconds ago before posting the next one (on Page 10, after that it's probably fine). Although that's a bit of a hard thing to calculate exactly.
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I think we should definitely have a list of bad numbers too, just to make sure we don't accidentally post a multiple of three when not meaning to
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Eating supper now so will be here to play and glance at strategy talk first.
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The one spot in the strat I see where flood control could be an issue is the page 15 variation where Duke is the only one quoting our correct numbers. Smanthony and I should both be watching on that page for Duke's quote posts and go ahead and quote M. Gustave and Suzy's scoring numbers if they come immediately after Duke has posted.
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Good spot! Agreed, that makes sense.
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I'll also be trying to monitor what the other tribe is doing because my best sniping opportunities are going to be if they've got assigned quoters hitting the flood control
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If I'm not mistaken, our non-participants are still allowed to comment in our tribal threads with strategy right? So anyone else who is here during the challenge can take notes here if they notice a pattern in the other tribe's activity on the scoring pages.
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If I'm not mistaken, our non-participants are still allowed to comment in our tribal threads with strategy right? So anyone else who is here during the challenge can take notes here if they notice a pattern in the other tribe's activity on the scoring pages.
That’s right, they just can’t post in the challenge thread, but they can comment here.
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If the challenge is still going in 2 hours I can take a look, however I will be at work until then and I can’t be on my phone at work.
You all are smart and I trust you. I don’t have anything to contribute beyond what has been said which is why I’ve been a tad quieter this round. If it’s still going and I notice anything by the time I’m around I will be sure to post it!
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Thanks Oracle, but if this live challenge takes two hours something has gone terribly wrong
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A stalemate on who will get the last post on page 9 could be theoretically possible, no? :P
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That's true, being the final post on a page preceding a score page is a disadvantage because of the 10 second flood control
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that's when we coordinate a two-pronged (or three-pronged) simultaneous post. gotta get that bonus point!
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Also, we want the quoters to have a post lined up
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So we're playing Gustave, Suzy, Duke, Sam, and Richie, correct?
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I believe so.
I plan to try to quote stuff and will add up the digits of whatever I see since that's gonna be faster for me than trying to memorize the numbers.
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yes, assuming sam finished his dinner. who's shadowing who?
@sam: on page 10 we'll be posting only multiples of 3, so you can quote any of them. pages 15 and 20 we'll be mixing it up, but the any time the 4th digit is a 4 or a 5, it is correct.
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Okay.
@Anthony if you're still here do you want to be on score counting duty? If we're significantly ahead going into page 20 we may want to just all spam bad numbers.
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Strategy overview:
Gustave: Poster
Suzy: Poster
Duke: Quoter
Sam: Quoter (page 10), Sniper (page 15, 20)
Richie: Sniper
ON PAGE 10
All posts made by Suzy and Gustave will be multiples of 3
Duke shadows Gustave, Sam shadows Suzy (constantly refresh and immediately quote if you see the person you are shadowing post. Do not do anything else)
Posters should wait until 10s after their quoter has posted to post again
Richie attempts to snipe enemy numbers which are divisible by 3
ON PAGE 15
Only numbers with a 4 or a 5 as the 4th digit will be divisible by 3; Suzy and Gustave will post these, Duke will quote
Sam switches to Sniping, Sam and Richie attempt to snipe the other side's posts when divisible by 3. If Duke has posted recently and a friendly number comes up, please take it too!
ON PAGE 20
see page 15
All throughout - whenever it's not close to being the next contested page (say, if we're on page 16 or such) check in on this thread and discuss.
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That's a good idea Sam, if we take a lead into the final page we can win just by finishing the page as fast as possible
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We need a list of bad numbers still... That's quite important for the posters!
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I posted a few bad numbers and will be formulating some more.
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Thank you!
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Meanwhile it's go time... probably have a while til it reaches page 10 but on yer marks, all :D
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Oh man, is there any way to bypass the 'while you were typing a new reply was posted' thing? I hadn't considered that!
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Create an alt account :P
Don't do that
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I don't think there is Duke I'm looking now too
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I guess we just gotta mash through on that front
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Yeah, quoters should be ready for page 10 though :)
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At least it's effecting both sides equally
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Yeah, but save some stamina, you can let the other tribe post. :P
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My word that thing is annoying though
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it's so annoying!
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agreed on all fronts
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page 8
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page 9 alert
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Imma tally scores real quick
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wow that went by quickly
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I think I sniped Buckley's 3? This challenge is lightning fast.
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I feel like I'm bad at this lol
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I did not expect it to be so fast!!!
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i think duke got mine, all two of them
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1333333
3333333
Leading by 2 I think
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Given how fast it goes - next round, Suzy open with a wrong one, Gustave open with a correct one. I'll quote Gustave. Then do whatever
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Also, they appear to be posting "3s" so watch out for those Richie :)
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understood
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Of course, they may change that :P
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okay, I will try my best! it's hard to anticipate when the page will flip over
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god this challenge is nuts
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ahhhh I just want to post I don't care how many other posts ahhhhhhh
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1333333333
333333333333
I may have hit repeats on page one, I realised
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We definitely won page 15, idk by how much.
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It looks like we're winning to me? But it also looks like their offence is not doing well at all. I think we should revert to everything being correct for 20
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heard
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five-star pagetop
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13333333
3333333333
Without repeats, I am rushing though, no promises
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and it's over
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wow that was something
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Sorry about that last one, I got stunlocked by the 10s limit so they sniped one... I think we still got it though?
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13333333333
333333333333333
As long as I didn't mess up by 4, we should be good :P
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That was pretty damn intense, good job team whatever the result ends up being
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I laughed when I saw Suzy and M. Gustave post the exact same number back to back
...then I cried when I couldn't successfully post a quote of one of them til the page was already over
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sam did especially well on page 20 i think, he was right on my posts from what i could tell
pedit: i laughed too, richie!
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Lol I just saw that!!! I am so relieved this is over
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Doing the on-second calculating helped with my second hand stress.
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AA that was invaluable thank you! I don't think we can call that a sit out for you, you were definitely participating in the challenge with us.
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You're making me blush :I :)
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Hell yeah team!
My paws can finally stop shaking now :P
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Yayyyyy
Ill try to catch up on messages in a couple hours.
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It's extremely late here on the Isle of Dogs so I'm going to sleep; sorry to those of you I haven't messaged back yet! Will reply in the morning.
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yessss, great job from everybody! sleep well, duke.
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Good effort everyone!!!! Glad we have a night of rest!
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Amazing job everyone! I'm also going to take a breather before checking on correspondence.
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:D, I got the gap right, but was 6 points off
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On my mobile phone but good job team. It seems you were "built different" as the memes do proclaim.
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I’m leaving now I’ll be around in about 40 minutes or so. But I had to know how we did but incredible job everyone! Amazing team effort! My tail is wagging so hard!!!
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Great job, everyone! More great planning and teamwork.
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Ok, everyone got the announcement?
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Ok, everyone got the announcement?
No?
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NOTICE: OPENING PORTION OF NEXT CHALLENGE BEGINS IMMEDIATELY AFTER TRIBAL COUNCIL. This portion will only consist of one simple submission from your tribe. You will have 4 hours to discuss and submit.
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Where is that?
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Oh they put it in the banner and not in announcements
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Yes, the banner that has been question prompts is now an announcement for a challenge submissions we'll need to decide on within 4 hours tonight. I'll be around immediately after deadline.
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I will be busy for most of it, but I'll do what I can. :I
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I also missed it and immediately went to the announcement board. I should be around about 30 minutes after this starts and will do my best to be present for the duration after!!!
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Holy WIFOM hell. I’ll think about this a bit and get back with thoughts. I don’t know if there’s even a good strategy to this. It just seems like luck mostly.
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My first instinct is to make our code 44444. Not sure if it's good or not yet.
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My first instinct is to make our code 44444. Not sure if it's good or not yet.
it’s bad if their first guesses are 01234 and 56789 because they would get 1 right and know all the rest of the digits.
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I do not comprehend.
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Like when they're sent 44444, I don't think they can gleam much information out of it? Like the order of the digits is completely arbitrary from their perspective.
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If they guess 01234 they would get told “1 correct the rest wrong” then they guess 56789 and get told “0 right”
Then they know its 00000, 11111, 22222, 33333 or 44444
Unless I don’t comprehend something about this challenge.
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Wait so the other tribe seems to be guessing the combo that was rng'd we just determine what to shuffle it to?
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Wait so the other tribe seems to be guessing the combo that was rng'd we just determine what to shuffle it to?
This is my understanding of the challenge.
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If that is the case 44444 is valid and probably works.
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I thought I just gave a reasonable suggestion why that’s not the best idea. Have I missed something in my logic?
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I thought I just gave a reasonable suggestion why that’s not the best idea. Have I missed something in my logic?
I think(?) they are trying to guess the number in our challenge thread from our shuffled number.
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I thought I just gave a reasonable suggestion why that’s not the best idea. Have I missed something in my logic?
I think(?) they are trying to guess the number in our challenge thread from our shuffled number.
Hmm okay. I think I see my confusion. Let me think a bit more and I’ll get back about this. I’m around until this is due so I’ll give it a look again and see if there is a better idea.
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Side Note, mods have given us a spreadsheet we can use for guesses/theory. BE SURE TO ONLY VIEW IT IN INCOGNITO MODE TO KEEP YOURSELF ANONYMOUS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KFY5dMQ4KnfKPZ987Y71Li2Nc-fOCNfY2usbTBNtlJQ/edit#gid=0
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I'll read the challenge post and chime in momentarily
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So, in reference to Sam's all 4 strategy, for the tiebreaker wouldn't all 9s be better?
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Side Note, mods have given us a spreadsheet we can use for guesses/theory. BE SURE TO ONLY VIEW IT IN INCOGNITO MODE TO KEEP YOURSELF ANONYMOUS: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KFY5dMQ4KnfKPZ987Y71Li2Nc-fOCNfY2usbTBNtlJQ/edit#gid=0
like Young Writer said......... INCOGNITO ONLY!!!!! BEWARE exposing your ID accidentally!!!!
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I think it's likely the first 2 guesses are gonna be 01234+56789 or 12345+67890
So we should avoid putting 0 1 5 6 as the first digit, 1 2 6 7 as the second digit ect., no? Since we don't want to give exact placements?
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So, in reference to Sam's all 4 strategy, for the tiebreaker wouldn't all 9s be better?
Do keep in mind, you can't simply scramble to any number you want. It has to be 15 turns from your original number.
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So, in reference to Sam's all 4 strategy, for the tiebreaker wouldn't all 9s be better?
It's unclear which number is the one that tiebreaks but all 9s isn't reachable from our combination.
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I think it's likely the first 2 guesses are gonna be 01234+56789 or 12345+67890
So we should avoid putting 0 1 5 6 as the first digit, 1 2 6 7 as the second digit ect., no? Since we don't want to give exact placements?
I absolutely agree with you on one condition. Don’t do the exact reverse either if possible.
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I think it's likely the first 2 guesses are gonna be 01234+56789 or 12345+67890
So we should avoid putting 0 1 5 6 as the first digit, 1 2 6 7 as the second digit ect., no? Since we don't want to give exact placements?
Once again, they aren't guessing the number we scramble to I don't think
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I think it's likely the first 2 guesses are gonna be 01234+56789 or 12345+67890
So we should avoid putting 0 1 5 6 as the first digit, 1 2 6 7 as the second digit ect., no? Since we don't want to give exact placements?
Once again, they aren't guessing the number we scramble to I don't think
They will be given your scrambled number and will have to work back to your original number.
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To be clear the “secret combination number” is the “original number”?
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yep!
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So the strategy for guessing once without considering the 15 clicks is rather simple.
Guess 01234 then 56789 and keep doing combinations until you have all 5 digits, then start shift that guess with all 5 correct digits over one until you have enough info about "correct placements' to just have the combination (or maybe some more efficient way to do it still working it out).
The real question is where we implement the 15 clicks. I'm not sure it's important in the first two guesses, but every guess after should be a valid combination at the least.
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So I have a weird WIFOM thought, why don’t we leave the number as is and they assume we changed it?
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So I have a weird WIFOM thought, why don’t we leave the number as is and they assume we changed it?
Because we HAVE to move it 15 clicks exactly.
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So I have a weird WIFOM thought, why don’t we leave the number as is and they assume we changed it?
Because we HAVE to move it 15 clicks exactly.
Ah okay never mind then. Thanks for helping me understand.
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that moment when you check back in a little late and see a 2 hour timer, only to see that it's mercifully just a single submission. i was hoping for a puzzle in my confessional, and it looks like i got my wish, lol.
so it's basically numbers version of mastermind, but each team gets a scrambled version of the solution provided to them, and then we work backwards from the scramble to get the real combo. that's my understanding, correct me if i'm wrong.
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I’m sorry, I just woke up from a pretty long nap. Catching up on what’s going on!
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It's sound like M. Gustave has volunteered to bring us to victory, how wonderful!
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Okay I've booted up my computer to give more coherent thoughts.
So here is how I understand this challenge so far:
1. We have a combination number of 26599
2. We have 15 clicks (1 number in any direction per click) to change the sequence.
3. Once both teams have submitted the incorrect sequence, we have 20 hours to start guessing numbers.
4. Each time we guess, the mods will tell us how off each one is (Lingo style if anyone has watched that game show). They will tell us correct, incorrect, or correct but in the right place essentially.
5. The team who gets the right number in the fewest amount of guesses wins.
So initial thoughts: Unless their number is super randomized there is a rhyme or reason to this 26599 however is kind of a terrible starting number for us because if they guess 01234 and 56789, they would get "1 correct" and "2 correct in the right place and 1 correct". Then they just have to factor in how the 15 clicks works in order to lock into our number. It could take awhile or it might not.
My big question for the mods, are we going to be told if a number is correct and in the right place as in "x6xx9"?
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It's sound like M. Gustave has volunteered to bring us to victory, how wonderful!
The M. stands for Mastermind, it all makes perfect sense now
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My big question for the mods, are we going to be told if a number is correct and in the right place as in "x6xx9"?
I think they'll just learn "3 correct, 2 in the right place" but not know which ones are in the right place. Still it does appear our number is disadvantageous to the actual strategy.
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Okay I've booted up my computer to give more coherent thoughts.
So here is how I understand this challenge so far:
1. We have a combination number of 26599
2. We have 15 clicks (1 number in any direction per click) to change the sequence.
3. Once both teams have submitted the incorrect sequence, we have 20 hours to start guessing numbers.
4. Each time we guess, the mods will tell us how off each one is (Lingo style if anyone has watched that game show). They will tell us correct, incorrect, or correct but in the right place essentially.
5. The team who gets the right number in the fewest amount of guesses wins.
So initial thoughts: Unless their number is super randomized there is a rhyme or reason to this 26599 however is kind of a terrible starting number for us because if they guess 01234 and 56789, they would get "1 correct" and "2 correct in the right place and 1 correct". Then they just have to factor in how the 15 clicks works in order to lock into our number. It could take awhile or it might not.
My big question for the mods, are we going to be told if a number is correct and in the right place as in "x6xx9"?
You'll be told in the same format as the sample from the challenge post, ie "X numbers correct. X correct numbers in the correct place."
Yep Young Writer beat me to it.
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My big question for the mods, are we going to be told if a number is correct and in the right place as in "x6xx9"?
I think they'll just learn "3 correct, 2 in the right place" but not know which ones are in the right place. Still it does appear our number is disadvantageous to the actual strategy.
It's possible they did something similar to the number on the other side, but I'm guessing not. It's a pretty bad starting place.
So it then becomes a logic puzzle to solve when it's time for us to start guessing which is why we have the doc, however there's clearly no rule against repeating numbers in the final combo, so it's 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 which is about 100,000 possibilities until we get more information and then clicks will probably start eliminating guess count once we are able to determine one or two of the numbers as it just becomes an educated guessing game after.
So really the biggest thing is it almost doesn't matter what sequence we give them though one possibility is to leave the 6 and the 9 alone and do some funky click things with the other three numbers or like waste 2 clicks on the 6 or 9 to throw them off a bit.
There's a number of ways we can approach this however it once again boils down to WIFOM and guessing.
Thank you Wes and YW for clarifying my question. That actually helps.
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There is some strategy to figuring out the pattern in Mastermind but unfortunately I haven't really played it in at least a decade so I'm more than a little rusty
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I think it would be best to go for 2 low numbers, 2 high numbers and 1 repeat?
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I don't even know what Mastermind is so that's going way above my head as a reference haha.
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One more question for the mods and then I'm going to go grab food:
26599
16599
26599 is considered 2 clicks and a valid way to build our final incorrect combination that we can send to the other tribe correct?
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I don't think so they said to get there the most efficient way which would be 0.
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One more question for the mods and then I'm going to go grab food:
26599
16599
26599 is considered 2 clicks and a valid way to build our final incorrect combination that we can send to the other tribe correct?
Based on the rules, no. They say it has to be the shortest possible route to be used.
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It's sound like M. Gustave has volunteered to bring us to victory, how wonderful!
The M. stands for Mastermind, it all makes perfect sense now
i laughed
for oracle: it is/was a board game of this logic puzzle, but with colored pegs instead of numbers. i realize now that it could well have been called something totally different outside the united states.
pedit: anthony is right, that would count as 0 clicks. and young writer, too.
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I version I play specified what was in the correct position/which letter was right but in the wrong position
Also it used letters instead of numbers :P
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One more question for the mods and then I'm going to go grab food:
26599
16599
26599 is considered 2 clicks and a valid way to build our final incorrect combination that we can send to the other tribe correct?
Based on the rules, no. They say it has to be the shortest possible route to be used.
Okay darn I was trying to get creative in how we build the number we post to throw them off.
Sounds like we just have to bite the bullet though. The farthest any number can go is 5 I believe in that case.
Pedit: thanks all for helping me work through the strategies on how this works. It helps me not suggest stupid combo numbers.
I'm going to grab some food I'll be back in about 15ish minutes.
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I version I play specified what was in the correct position/which letter was right but in the wrong position
Also it used letters instead of numbers :P
This sounds a lot like Lingo which is the reference I made earlier. Though in Lingo you actually got to know which letter was in the correct position not just "1 correct"
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Okay I'm back now.
Anthony suggested 2 high numbers, 2 low numbers, 1 repeat.
26599
19923 I think is 15 clicks. It's got 2 high numbers at least 2 low numbers and a repeat. It does have 3 low numbers though. I tried to avoid that I also don't know if giving two repeat numbers might clue them that we wouldn't change those two numbers to the same number? Like if we put "99" in my example above, would they be more or less likely to assume those numbers are a pair somewhere in the sequence?
Just spitballing to get the ball rolling since we have 1.5 hours to come up with a number.
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Imma try to come up with one now that I have time
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26599
I wanna don't want to change the second 9 anymore, since process of elimination is prolly more helpful now that I think about it and 1 hit would eliminate that possibility (in the case of 56789). However, I do not want the pair to be 9s. I notice that there are more higher numbers than lower numbers, so I will change the 9 by 5 to 4.
???49
This will also get a hit in the case of 12345+67890
I do not want to have a 0 or 5 for being on the border, so I will change the 5 by 4 to 1.
??149
Since, I want a pair here, I will change the 6 by 5 to 1.
?1149
That leaves 1 change and since lowering 2 by 1 will make 3 1s, I shall raise it by one leading to 31149
Does that sound reasonable?
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Wait I'm confused. Anthony are you doing this assuming they get hits on what we scramble it to?
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Ftr I don't think what we scramble it to has much effect so I'm fine with whatever. I do think 44444 is pretty funny to go with though.
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Ftr I don't think what we scramble it to has much effect so I'm fine with whatever. I do think 44444 is pretty funny to go with though.
Does 44444 work out to 15 clicks? If so, why not.
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Wait I'm confused. Anthony are you doing this assuming they get hits on what we scramble it to?
Wait, am I thinking along the wrong game entirely? :I
I thought we got 15 moves to make a code we want and they have to guess it. :I
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Ignore everything I said. .-.
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Wait I'm confused. Anthony are you doing this assuming they get hits on what we scramble it to?
Wait, am I thinking along the wrong game entirely? :I
I thought we got 15 moves to make a code we want and they have to guess it. :I
Nope they have to guess the code that we have and are given what we scramble it to.
Tbh I'd much prefer if we were both given the same code and had to guess what the other tribe scrambled it to, but unfortunately we are not in that timeline.
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I don't think the scrambling is going to have much if any impact on the outcome of the challenge unfortunately. It's just going to be which tribe brute forces the solve first.
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Is the tiebreaker based on the sum of the random combo the mods have given us or the sum of the scramble we come up with? If it's the former that's even more making this an coin flip challenge.
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Don't worry, I'm a puzzle master! :D
It's all about maximizing our chances. :P
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Ftr I don't think what we scramble it to has much effect so I'm fine with whatever. I do think 44444 is pretty funny to go with though.
Does 44444 work out to 15 clicks? If so, why not.
2+2+1+5+5 :0 it does!
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Wait I'm confused. Anthony are you doing this assuming they get hits on what we scramble it to?
Wait, am I thinking along the wrong game entirely? :I
I thought we got 15 moves to make a code we want and they have to guess it. :I
Nope they have to guess the code that we have and are given what we scramble it to.
Tbh I'd much prefer if we were both given the same code and had to guess what the other tribe scrambled it to, but unfortunately we are not in that timeline.
Yeah I was confused why 44444 was brought up as a possibility :I
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I don't think the scrambling is going to have much if any impact on the outcome of the challenge unfortunately. It's just going to be which tribe brute forces the solve first.
It might help us solve it faster (if we figure out numbers the number of clicks would be reduced and the numbers would shrink exponentially), which is true for both sides depending on what is randomly guessed.
In any case, I can't think of anything specifically better than all 4s like we said in the very beginning. I appreciate us at least talking it out to see if we could come up with something better.
Pedit: Yup Anthony has confirmed it comes out to 15. Therefore I can't see it being better or worse and it ultimately gives them no indication about our number any more than any other number.
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Is the tiebreaker based on the sum of the random combo the mods have given us or the sum of the scramble we come up with? If it's the former that's even more making this an coin flip challenge.
It is based on what you scramble it to.
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Based on Wes' tie breaker confirmation I think we should try to find the highest value of the sum of digits in a scrambled combo we can achieve
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99995?
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Based on Wes' tie breaker confirmation I think we should try to find the highest value of the sum of digits in a scrambled combo we can achieve
26599
To get 99999, that would take 10 clicks, meaning we would need to tone down the 9s.
99877 is 13 clicks.
99866 is 15 clicks I believe.
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99995?
That's only 14 clicks I think? so 99994?
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2 - 9 is 3... okay I thought it was 4 on my first attempt :I, you're right
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So my only problem with 99994 is that I personally feel either by accident or by process of elimination they will figure out that 4 is a 9 and that we spent 5 clicks on the last digit. In fact a difference that large almost ensures it. So it has to be high without giving too much away. At least I don't know how smart the other side is but that's what would stand out to me if we went with that.
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The next highest is 99985, then 99983, 99976, 99972
99976, might be promising for disguising?
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Can we do 88888?
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It's not strictly the highest but it also goes along with the earlier 4s strategy
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4+2+3+1+1 is 11
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I have not wrapped my head around the whole clicks on wheel counting method huh
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In that case I endorse 99976
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The next highest is 99985, then 99983, 99976, 99972
99976, might be promising for disguising?
I still think we should avoid giving away the pair of 9s if at all possible.
26599
89098
(4)(3)(5)(0)(1) = 13 clicks.
79097
(5)(3)(5)(0)(2) = 15 clicks
Though that is no where near the highest. a palindrome would be tricky to undo though.
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80000 gets 15 with 4+4+5+1+1?
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The numbers we put in our code aren't going to be what leads them to the solution though, they'll do that through the logic puzzle once they start entering guesses and getting data on X correct numbers with Y in the correct position right? So it shouldn't be giving anything away for us to have a series of 9s in our shuffle.
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80000 gets 15 with 4+4+5+1+1?
The sum of 80000 is 8 though which is a terrible tiebreaker.
I also suggested 99866 earlier which could help hide the pair of 9s at the end potentially, but also if they figure it out could give it away.
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87654 as well with 4+1+1+4+5?
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I've only seen this challenge in the last 5 minutes so I am trying to binge the last few pages. In general I like the idea of duplicating at least one number in our submission.
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Oh, I thought we were doing it as 1 5 digit number for the tie-breaker
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Neither team is going to get info for correct numbers or correct positions out of the shuffle the other tribe creates unless they enter that shuffle as a guess, which wouldn't be an efficient use of a guess since that is absolutely not a possible solution based on the 15 click shuffle requirement
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Yeah tie breaker is sum of digits. 9 + 9 + 9 + 7 + 6 would be 40 which is pretty solid.
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Neither team is going to get info for correct numbers or correct positions out of the shuffle the other tribe creates unless they enter that shuffle as a guess, which wouldn't be an efficient use of a guess since that is absolutely not a possible solution based on the 15 click shuffle requirement
Why not, it's not like we're gonna get it on our first guess? :I
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First guess should be something that is valid 15 clicks away from whatever scramble they give us, no?
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Anyway we're getting ahead of ourselves talking about solving strategies when we still need a scramble
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First guess should be something that is valid 15 clicks away from whatever scramble they give us, no?
I think it should be more information based than guess based since we have nothing previous to go on?
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Well it'll be a combination of both. It'll be Mastermind strategy, but with a side of remembering this curious requirement about the clicks in the decoy we're given.
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First guess should be something that is valid 15 clicks away from whatever scramble they give us, no?
Technically yes, but we'd need a second guess with all the numbers not in that first guess also 15 away which is...difficult.
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Okay so. What I've seen so far in suggestions
Number & Tiebreaker amount
99949 or 99994 = 40
99976 = 40
99866 = 38
79097 = 32
44444 = 20
Have there been any other suggestions or ideas I've missed?
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What if we motivate ourselves to do better by going for the lowest number we can possibly make within 15 clicks.
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First guess should be something that is valid 15 clicks away from whatever scramble they give us, no?
Technically yes, but we'd need a second guess with all the numbers not in that first guess also 15 away which is...difficult.
If we get >1 correct number in correct position off of our first guess it's better to iterate and lock in those correct numbers as fast as possible so we have fewer permutations to solve in the other positions
See now the Mastermind stuff is coming back to me, ah nostalgia
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My problem with 99994 is that they may correctly deduce that that was the highest sum of digits we could reach, whereas 44444 doesn't really give any deductions and it's highly unlikely for the tiebreaker to come into play.
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For our guessing, the strategy I've come up with is:
First guess; +1 to all digits
(For example, if we receive 37966 guess 48077)
Then -1 to all digits
+2 to all digits
-2 to a digits
+0 to all digits
+3 to all digits
+4 to all digits
+5 to all digits
Because we know that the differences must sum to 15 we may be able to skip one or more of those. What this does is gets us to at most 120 combinations left after at most 8 guesses, because we will know the amount slots need to change by, we just need to arrange these changes in the correct order.
Suppose our changes our A, B, C, D, and E; Our next guess would apply them in order ABCDE
If we have 5 match we're done (9 total).
4 match is impossible.
If we have 3 match it takes at most an additional 5 guesses (14 total)
If we get 2 match it takes at most an additional 6 or 8 (idk which) guesses (15 or 17 total)
If we get 1 match it at most an additional 8 guesses. (17 total)
If we get 0 matches we than submit BCDEA and go to that many matches (18 total)
Which means unless I messed up the numbers or misunderstood something it will take at most 18 guesses.
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Are you certain that still works if we just know THAT they are in the correct position and not which numbers they are?
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That was at Richie
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Are you certain that still works if we just know THAT they are in the correct position and not which numbers they are?
Logical deduction on the iterations narrows down which ones were correct until you lock them in
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My problem with 99994 is that they may correctly deduce that that was the highest sum of digits we could reach, whereas 44444 doesn't really give any deductions and it's highly unlikely for the tiebreaker to come into play.
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For our guessing, the strategy I've come up with is:
First guess; +1 to all digits
(For example, if we receive 37966 guess 48077)
Then -1 to all digits
+2 to all digits
-2 to a digits
+0 to all digits
+3 to all digits
+4 to all digits
+5 to all digits
Because we know that the differences must sum to 15 we may be able to skip one or more of those. What this does is gets us to at most 120 combinations left after at most 8 guesses, because we will know the amount slots need to change by, we just need to arrange these changes in the correct order.
Suppose our changes our A, B, C, D, and E; Our next guess would apply them in order ABCDE
If we have 5 match we're done (9 total).
4 match is impossible.
If we have 3 match it takes at most an additional 5 guesses (14 total)
If we get 2 match it takes at most an additional 6 or 8 (idk which) guesses (15 or 17 total)
If we get 1 match it at most an additional 8 guesses. (17 total)
If we get 0 matches we than submit BCDEA and go to that many matches (18 total)
Which means unless I messed up the numbers or misunderstood something it will take at most 18 guesses.
The fact I'm having a hard time following this probably means if you are certain it's likely a good strategy.
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What if we do 79978 5+3+4+2+1
Well, that's still 40, so 40 is prolly the max for this set of numbers?
Yeah, I think so
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I think it's a mistake to sleep on the possibility of a tie in the solve so doing one of these scrambles that sums to 40 is the right move
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The real question is that while (and I'm trusting Samuel here) that guarantees 18 at the most, is a standard logical deduction/mastermind strategy while also making all guesses differ by 15 better?
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Also the one that begins with a 7 seems quite good.
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Also the one that begins with a 7 seems quite good.
I don't hate 79978
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79978 is good by me
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No objections here
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The big issue with having the first two guesses be a simple 12345 then 67890 is you learn almost nothing that can inform your third guess
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My only fear with that is what if they somehow figure out the 54321 pattern with it, but at this point it's no worse than 99976 to me seeing as I don't know how they'd logic that out in any way shape or form, patterns in our coding scares me though.
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My only fear with that is what if they somehow figure out the 54321 pattern with it, but at this point it's no worse than 99976 to me seeing as I don't know how they'd logic that out in any way shape or form, patterns in our coding scares me though.
It's 5 3 4 2 1
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My only fear with that is what if they somehow figure out the 54321 pattern with it, but at this point it's no worse than 99976 to me seeing as I don't know how they'd logic that out in any way shape or form, patterns in our coding scares me though.
Actually, it's 53421, no?
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Anyway, as for the strategy, if we get a combo of numbers that has 3 correct, at worst it's likely like 5 iterations before all 3 are locked in, and then it's just a matter of moving in pairs of the remaining 5 numbers until you have the right ones. ANd if one set of numbers only has 1 correct answer, then the other set likely has 3 or 4 correct numbers. Of course numbers repeating do make it more difficult but it feels more efficient than the doing 8 guesses to limit the pool and still maybe needing 18.
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Oh yeah haha. Okay sorry my bad.
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There's two types of information from guesses to extract, what numbers are in the code and what the differences are. By making our code all 4's we would make those two sources of information the exact same, which I think minimizes the amount of information they can get per guess.
Have to leave now so submit whatever for the shuffle (even if it is summing to 40) but I'd vote for not summing to 40.
@Writer that increases our chance of hitting on a given guess from 0/100000 to 1/100000, I think knowing how many of each of +1, +2, etc there are is much more valuable because it limits our worst case scenario drastically.
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The above is referring to #406
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I mean to be fair, if we want to test strategies, it's rather easy to randomly generate a 5 number sequence and scramble it here. We need not start working on deducing the combination immediately.
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My one fear with 44444 is if they guess 99999 and get 2 right, they know once they place those 9s properly the other digits are only a total of 5 off limiting the amount of guess potentials for the other 3 numbers that they may stumble along the way to place.
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My vote is for 79978.
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My vote is for 79978.
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Same, someone put it in then?
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Where do we put it?
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I'd assume the Challenge 4 Thread?
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Put it in the Chapter Four Thread and I will double-check it to make sure it's 15 turns.
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But also to be clear once we have their scrambled number, we should test out the two general strategies we have to see if one is much better.
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Which means not actually guessing in the thread yet.
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But also to be clear once we have their scrambled number, we should test out the two general strategies we have to see if one is much better.
I absolutely 100% agree with this. I also have a strategy of my own I'd like to try.
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What is your final submission?
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What is your final submission?
I put it in the chapter 4 thread like you asked.
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Okay so should we discuss strategy in another thread then before we start guessing?
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What is your final submission?
I put it in the chapter 4 thread like you asked.
Sorry about that! Number posted now.
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Should we make a challenge strategy testing thread now?
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apologies for not being around much today, it was my bad and shouldn't happen again. turns out the m. is more likely to stand for muddled than mastermind, because most of the strategy talk for this challenge has been over my head. i feel so carried. i'll get to my messages now.
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Hey all, I spent so much time on this challenge. I’ll be done for the day and will respond to dms once I have food. Thank you for patience!
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holy god that was way closer than i expected! they must be so frustrated over there, four guesses is super good but still lost.
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Hey everyone, I moved house today! getting everything set up took a lot longer than expected so I'm kind of out of it at the moment; will reply to everyone before I sleep tonight but won't be immediately
thanks for patience :D
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Been very busy today and likely won't get back to anyone before deadline, so if there's a swap just know I have enjoyed our time together greatly.
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Hey all! I'm kind of exhausted, was going through the list of messages because TC but now it's not TC rn so I'll probably go black out and get back to you in the morning. Sorry about activity here; it's been a busy couple days.
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this pirate stuff takes me back to pearl islands and cook islands; good times.
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Are we supposed to be discussing who we would pirate? I'm a touch confused about the latter part of this announcement.
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I think it's a self decision so we can't really pick someone
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Got it. I actually have an idea I want to propose, I'm not sure if this is a stupid idea or if it's worth discussing, but if my idea works out there might be a way none of us have to be voted out this round.
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If you all want to try to coordinate and discuss this. If not, no worries we can just all have the night off haha. Bark bark.
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I mean I can't think of such a way that happens that doesn't either involve myself volunteering to leave, which I'm not entirely sure I'd want to do, or giving away the Mendls and trusting who its given to will actually leave, which given the entirety of the auction round, I don't think I would be on board with.
Still if it people wish to discuss plans it can't hurt to let our thoughts be out there.
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That was my thought. So after this round two people will be voted out. One on each tribe. That leaves us with 14. The only person we publicly know is safe either this round or next is you. So one possible solution is to assume the immune person over there does not jump ship.
If you were to volunteer to munity you are guaranteed to survive at least one round which might be enough for a true swap, which given how open you have been about sharing information with us I trust us to want to protect you assuming we swap at 14.
This would mean that most likely the person who swaps here won't be the immune one. If they are we can't help it and just have to bite the bullet, but they are pretty broken after the 5-3 split. So the odds are the person with immunity won't want to go anywhere. Most likely we could potentially take two of them out and set us up to be safe in a swap or merge scenario after.
Again this hinges on two things:
1. You are willing to go over on the hope that either a swap is coming soon, or that you can survive a round bluffing you will use the immunity, don't use it, and then use it the next round if we don't swap.
2. The rest of the tribe stays strong in voting out whoever they send over. If that person is the one who has immunity, then whatever we can't help that and were going to have to vote someone out anyways.
This is an option if we want to try to survive together, but if not I will drop it and we can just do what we were going to do individually. I just wanted to throw it out there as an idea.
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I would like to re-iterate if you aren't okay doing that, this is your game. No is an option. I just was trying to think if there was any discussion point worth having about this.
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I'm well aware I'm considering it. Though frankly I'm still very unsure. It's not about my survival but rather inter tribe dyanmics. Most of us just had a round to get any sense of the other tribe and "we'll just vote out whoever comes here unless they have immunity" feels a bit...dismissive I guess is the word. Especially when it's likely someone who is on the outs on the other tribe, like that's not how I'd like to be greated, especially without immunit. Also simultaneously showing up and being like "yeah I'm here because it guarantees one of you goes home" also feels bad to do and either sends the message that our entire tribe is just, not interested in bonding with any of them or just that I really am not interested in that.
Also if I don't go over, it's still likely with the split that whoever does end up there has a good chance of surviving without it just being a soft act of war.
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These are all good things to discuss and consider. Appreciate the added discussion.
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My owner is offering me a car ride and I just have the desire to go stick my head out the window and bite at the air a bunch.
I'll be back in awhile. Bark bark!
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Back now! Bark bark.
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Will be in classes for a chunk of today. Responses will likely be short and infrequent. Thanks for understanding!
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Same but different reason :P
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Going to my last class for the day. I’ll check in later! Sorry if I have not responded to all DMs today has been busy.
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Good luck with swap everyone!!