Round 14 Discussion

[Wes Anderson]

Before the Suzy/Madame/Richie F3 started solidifying, I'd thought Richie would need to win immunity at 4 to make FTC.  Now I feel like, he's got the idol this round, and if he can keep Madame to F4 then she's the one that needs to win there.  Madame will have a tough road to get there.  This was extremely good for Oracle and Gustave... they'll have a much better chance of making/winning at F3 now.

[Sam Shakusky]

Suzy was the swinging vote at final 10. Now we are at final 5 and she's still in the swing vote position.

[Wes Anderson]

Yeah, I realize I didn't mention her but it's not because she's an afterthought at all, it's only because I don't think her position swung as wildly from this round as the others did.  I think she was making F3 before with a tenable case, and she's still fairly likely to get there.

[Wes Anderson]

I feel like it’s sooo up in the air who even works with whom in the last few rounds. Do Oracle and Gustave feel they owe Madame/Suzy anything? Did Madame/Suzy intend to shank Richie or did one or both of them plan to rejoin him? Does Gustave ever consider cutting Oracle if they’re at F4 together?

[Brendan]

Yeah, I realize I didn't mention her but it's not because she's an afterthought at all, it's only because I don't think her position swung as wildly from this round as the others did.  I think she was making F3 before with a tenable case, and she's still fairly likely to get there.

I think her position drastically improved. I think she went from almost no shot, but slotted into third place to still slotted into third place but with a path where she wins dominantly and other paths where she at least has a case.

[Captain Sharp]

woah didnt see this coming i was out toadya

[Rhett]

ig they might've been worried margot had an idol, but i dont really see any benefit from blindsiding richie there, especially from madame's perspective

[Eli Cash]

I think Madame basically sunk her own game, and also Richie's, by taking out Margot here. Now they need to win out on challenges or else we are gonna get the mega boring Suzy/Gustave/Oracle finale where Suzy wins in a walk (or rather, that's what we should be getting now...Suzy would be silly to willingly choose to endgame with Madame and/or Richie).

[Captain Sharp]

Oracle and Gustave are pretty much trying to hand the game to Suzy.  I think I need to idol her out here if I can.

BASED???

[Eli Cash]

The hero we need

[Wes Anderson]

Sometimes I forget how quickly things can change. Like right now I’ve been saying if Madame is there at F4 she goes and Richie makes f3. But say he idols out Suzy at 5. Then does his threat meter surge back past Madame’s? Also potentially relevant that Richie and Oracle just don’t get along, at all.

[Wes Anderson]

There's also always the very fun possibility of some "big threat" managing to slip through to the end only for everyone to say hey wait a minute, what did you actually do

Which is something I could've seen happening to Margot for instance, and also Richie, but Richie's idol and approach to these last few rounds should prevent that

[Brendan]

I think that could happen with Madame now, although I still think she probably wins? It's hard to say. But the door is definitely open for someone like Suzy to beat Madame where it may not have been before.

[Wes Anderson]

I think it’s a mistake for Richie to revenge idol out Suzy… he should snipe Oracle as Suzy might still bring him to FTC, but ending Oracle would give him back the upper hand in their relationship imo

[Brendan]

I think it’s a mistake for Richie to revenge idol out Suzy… he should snipe Oracle as Suzy might still bring him to FTC, but ending Oracle would give him back the upper hand in their relationship imo

I think it's 50-50 because I think his odds of defeating Oracle and Gustave at FIC are greater than defeating Suzy, and he likely gets 4th either way if Madame wins FTC. I think Oracle and Gustave still take him to FTC over Madame, and he probably defeats Suzy, but I don't think it's 100% a done deal, and really he's probably choosing who he'd rather sit next to. Unless you think there is a world where Richie idols out Oracle now, Madame wins FIC, and Suzy votes for Gustave at F4, it's pretty much a wash.

[Sam Shakusky]

The crowd goes wild!

Wooh!



If Suzy gets idoled out I don't see Oracle/Gustave getting many votes over either of Madame and Richie.

[Wes Anderson]

Vote:Madame

I’m the worst person in the world.

Hmm perhaps flipping on Margot was a mistake

Of course if her blessed game continues, Richie idols her and then she wins F4 immunity.

[Wes Anderson]

The latter makes a great deal of sense, I've gotten hints from Madame D. that track that way and it's the only thing that explains why Madame D. would believe she could cut Margot and not be absolutely boned if I won this challenge.  It also lines up with the fact that both Suzy and Madame D. disappeared from my inbox exactly when Margot and I agreed in the group chat to target Oracle instead of Gustave.  Suzy/Madame/Oracle have the numbers with either a Gustave or a Margot boot.  If we had agreed to Gustave they could have gone along with it another round before striking against me or Margot this round.

I believe he’ll figure it out before deadline but imagine Richie throws an idol at Gustave here and he gets no votes and Madame goes home…

[Brendan]

That would honestly be so ridiculous, but I have confidence in Richie.

[Brendan]

Vote:Madame

I’m the worst person in the world.

Hmm perhaps flipping on Margot was a mistake

Of course if her blessed game continues, Richie idols her and then she wins F4 immunity.

It obviously was a mistake, but she's probably going to get lucky here.

[Wes Anderson]

That would honestly be so ridiculous, but I have confidence in Richie.

I could actually see him being the swing voter with Suzy/Madame on Gustave, Oracle/Gustave on Madame. He’d have to tip off Madame to his idol in that case, otherwise he’d be unable to take out Sooz

[Brendan]

So it seems like Suzy really may vote for Gustave, which is crazy.

It would be bonkers if Richie idoled Gustave.

[Bunce]

I don't think Suzy always prioritizes optimal game moves, even if she knows what the "right" move would be.

[Brendan]

I think it’s a mistake for Richie to revenge idol out Suzy… he should snipe Oracle as Suzy might still bring him to FTC, but ending Oracle would give him back the upper hand in their relationship imo

Now that we have more info...it 100% is. Both of Suzy's preferred F3s feature Richie. However Oracle wants Richie in the end too now, so who knows. Maybe he should just be letting Gustave go, but that's no fun.

[Brendan]

Also speaking from experience...the game of "oh I need to keep this person who I can't beat so that I can beat this other person I can't beat in challenges" is a losing game. I get that Oracle's chances of winning seem slim regardless, but it's such a mistake to think that way. If people wind up winning their way to the end, that isn't even that respected in the current meta.