Chapter 14: The Most Dysfunctional Group Woof!

[Oracle]

My head is reeling. Someone just cut Richie the check now.

[Brendan]

What do you make of this outcome? What is your plan for where to go from here?

[Oracle]

What do you make of this outcome? What is your plan for where to go from here?

I'm going to be talking to my dog lawyer after this game and suing you unless you pay for the years of therapy I'm going to have to endure as a result of this.

I wish Gustave had told me so I could have helped throw 2 votes on Madame instead. Because now if Madame wins I'm going to be in the hot seat because of his "deal" whereas if Suzy were here there's zero way she wins the final challenge and we just boot her if Richie wins. This is a monumental headache because now I actually have to give a shit about this final challenge.

If Madame wins, I'm in trouble. If Madame loses, I'm endgame. That's literally what this challenge comes down to. There's no other path for me other than a hopeful tiebreaker if Madame wins and then I'd have to beat Richie or Gustave in a challenge, which I hate that idea more than anything and was what I was trying to avoid.

Honestly this whole round could have been avoided if Richie just said he wanted Suzy out to me in private because I would have voted that way or suggested we tie the vote on Madame with Gustave 2-2-1. Like this is just a scenario that does scare me because Madame absolutely has the chance to win this and fuck me in the ass. Richie set this up and played it so he had a move on his resume and to maybe not be the target if he loses. There was literally no benefit to me or Gustave and it's super fucking awkward now.

God. Well at least I know Gustave can lie now. Good for him honestly. He's basically now guaranteed FTC.

[Brendan]

Would you prefer if Richie or Madame was the next boot if you could choose?

[Oracle]

Would you prefer if Richie or Madame was the next boot if you could choose?

Pretty fucking sure I just wasted my life for the last 2 months because I think either way at this point I lose this game. Like it's so fucking hard to get to this point, and just get continually shit on round to round and be here.

Madame I guess because at least that way I get to FTC and I'll take the ELO boost. I don't know what else I can even realistically even do at this point aside from winning immunity, which I have been very bad at this game so far.

[Oracle]

I always fucking forget how awkward and silent this part of the game is. Like I still want to be bubbly and social and talk to people but people are just #overit at this point and stop talking to each other. It makes me sad. You either die the social butterfly or you live long enough to see yourself become the lone wolf.

[Oracle]

Okay I have thoughts now that I'm thinking about this challenge.

There are several things I think this challenge could be:

There is an online game called bombardment, however I cannot find a free version of it to play, so if I'm struggling finding it I have to assume the mods are struggling to find it. https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/33043/bombardment

I'm also not against the fact that since Skelda is a host a "diffuse the bomb" style challenge could be what is here. A series of puzzles that eventually lead to a bomb being diffused.

There is also another online game called bombardment however it's like this weird naval ship game that just is clunky and hard to figure out and I can't figure out how it is scored. It's just a weird game in general and I can't see it being used here. https://kbhgames.com/game/bombardment

In any case, the likelihood that it actually ends up being one of the three top things I've found is lowish and likely I'm way overthinking whatever this challenge is.

[Wes Anderson]

How badly do you need this immunity?

[Oracle]

How badly do you need this immunity?

Badly is a strong term. I think no matter what I do here I will have a tiebreaker worse case.

Would I like immunity? Yeah that would be great because then I don't have to think about ties or breaking them.

But I think even if I lose this challenge it's not necessarily over for me. However if Madame wins...that's a completely different story.

[Wes Anderson]

I didn’t understand your earlier answer about your preferred F4 boot. How does ELO factor in? I know what it is but I don’t see the connection.

[Oracle]

I didn’t understand your earlier answer about your preferred F4 boot. How does ELO factor in? I know what it is but I don’t see the connection.

The farther you get in a game the better your ELO score becomes. Basically getting 4th gives you a worse score than 2nd or 3rd. It's not a super significant difference, but yeah.

Sorry if I wasn't more clear, sometimes what I'm thinking and what I type have a disconnect. It's an issue I've had since I was a kid and sometimes what I type and what I'm thinking don't really match up. I sometimes wonder if I should have seen a specialist for it.

Basically i don't think I'm winning this game so the higher placement I get the better my ELO will be at the end of the game. Really I see Madame and Richie as two sides of the same coin. At best, I think I'm getting 2nd to one of them. I also think it's less likely that Richie and Gustave send me to a tiebreaker over Madame, which is why I want her to be the f4 boot.

If Madame is immune, there is a chance Gustave sends me to a tiebreaker against Richie and I'm pretty sure I lose that, so I'd get a lesser ELO score for getting 4th place as a result. There's a chance Gustave doesn't send me to the tiebreaker either. That would be cool. But I think the odds of a Madame boot are higher than the odds of a flat out Richie boot here.

Does that answer your question better? I'm sorry if I act scatterbrained sometimes.

[Wes Anderson]

Well, the question was basically if you had your pick of who goes home, who would it be. So in this hypothetical you’re in FTC either way, and in that case, who do you want sent out? Does ELO still come into play?

[Oracle]

Well, the question was basically if you had your pick of who goes home, who would it be. So in this hypothetical you’re in FTC either way, and in that case, who do you want sent out? Does ELO still come into play?

It doesn't matter because I think I lose to Madame or Richie regardless of what I do here and I have no control over that.

So basically whatever gets me to FTC at this point so I can take my silver medal.

Madame not winning immunity is my best odds of getting to FTC, so I guess that.

I don't mean to sound like I don't care, but this game has been a roller coaster and I'm feeling pretty defeated like no matter what I do I lose regardless at this point and it sucks having come this far and feeling that way. Of the two I think madame has the better jury management than Richie so I guess I have a slight preference that way. Though in reality the number of votes makes little difference from what I understand as ELO is all about placement. So no I guess whatever gets me to FTC and gives me at least 2nd. If Madame wins immunity, I'd need Richie out but I fear that sends me to a tiebreak that I cannot win. If Richie or literally anyone else wins immunity, I think all 3 of us vote out Madame and I get 2nd which is my best possible placement right now and the closest I will likely come to winning.

1. Madame
2. Richie (not much different than Madame to me at this point)
3. Gustave (only person I think I have votes over at this point)
4. Me (because hey give me my ELO boost and why would I give up at this point anyways?)

Does that answer your question better?

[Oracle]

If I had my actual way here, I would be in a f4 with madame, suzy, guastave and myself, do my best to beat madame at the end and hopefully she gets voted out in 4th.

My only shot to actually win this game that I know of was a Suzy/myself/Gustave finale though Duke quitting at 8 would have been a better person for me to sit with than Suzy. Really I don't think I've had a winning scenario since Duke and subsequently Royal quit (I know Royal didn't quit, but it basically was kind of a quit).

So I'm not sure how best to answer your question. I think I get somewhere between 2nd-4th no matter what I do here, so I'll cut whoever helps me avoid getting 4th.

[Wes Anderson]

So to you, it makes no difference if Richie or Madame goes home? Even if you win immunity, you don’t have much interest in influencing it one way or the other?

[Oracle]

So to you, it makes no difference if Richie or Madame goes home? Even if you win immunity, you don’t have much interest in influencing it one way or the other?

I would vote out Madame if I win immunity. I could always send madame and richie to a tiebreaker to help out Gustave a bit, but if Madame wins that challenge I think she wins the game. If Richie wins the challenge, I think he wins the game. I don't think my choice actually has any bearing.

If I vote to tie the vote for Madame and she wins, I'm pretty sure she wins the game. However if I vote to send her home, I don't think she votes for me to win. I think it's a lost cause either way.

I really just needed this final 4 to be myself/richie/suzy/madame so that if Richie won, I would "have" to vote out Madame which I guess is the same reasoning I use here, but because I already put a vote on Gustave I think madame is going to see that as an excuse and a reason to shit talk me on the jury anyways.

This is not my ideal f4 I guess is what I want to say Wes. I think it's a bit of damned if I do, damned if I don't situation.

I guess the absolute best possible scenario I came come out of this with is if Richie wins immunity and I vote out Madame. I think that does the least damage to me on jury and "might" give me a shot depending on how pissed people are with Richie? If Madame wins though, just cut her the check and let's move on.

[Oracle]

I think at this point I'm going to start the challenge in about 2.5 hours. I don't think trying to stress about what the challenge could be is good for my mental health at this point and I'm going to assume Richie probably wins anyways which means I need to be mentally prepared to duke it out with him at FTC if he does.

If not then at least I'll be mentally strong trying to convince Gustave to go back on his deal with Richie to not send me to a tiebreaker.

[Oracle]

Okay so I talked in private with Wes and figured out more where he was trying to drive this. It was more who do I think I have a shot to beat at the end.

I'll do a summary with everything breaking it out juror to juror.

Peter-I do not think I had a good enough relationship with Peter to really sell myself as someone he will vote for. I think he is much more likely to vote for Madame or Richie over me, but I'm not counting him out. He was such a wild card in game, that maybe I have a shot at him?

Buckley-I think if Madame is at the end she gets his vote, I think if I am at the end without Madame I get his vote. I don't think Richie is in play for this vote.

Young Writer-I think I fucked this one up too bad to really get a shot at his vote. I think he hands down votes Richie or Madame over me. I'll do my best to talk to him and I have a plan to try to get his vote, but I don't think realistically it works. I'm not going to assume I get this one.

Herman-I think Herman is much more likely to vote Richie. If Richie isn't there, then I think he would probably vote me over Madame? They just didn't really have much of a relationship, however I might have bungled this vote too much to realistically be in play for this.

Duke-I get Duke's vote over either I think. That's what I have to believe at this point.

Royal-Like Writer, I think I bungled any chance I had at Royal's vote. I have a plan to attempt to appeal to him and see if it lands, but I know he wasn't really my fan before he left, I doubt he's my fan on the jury. I think Madame gets his vote regardless of who else is there, and if it's me and Richie that he would be Richie leaning. I don't realistically expect this vote.

Margot-I think Margot is actually solidly on Richie. If it were me and Madame I think I might get a spite vote from Margot not happy at Madame. I don't think she votes for Madame in that scenario.

Suzy-I think I solidly get Suzy's vote here.

Madame (hypothetical)-If Madame is the final juror, I think I might be in play for her vote, though I would need to explain some things that may or may not go over well with her. I think I am more likely to get her vote than Richie is, but I could be reading that wrong.

Richie (hypothetical and unlikely)-If Richie is the final juror, I think he hands down votes for Madame to win over me, but I guess I shouldn't count him out as a potential vote for me? I'm not sure. Either way I would think Madame is more likely to vote me than him.

To recap:

Peter: Madame>Richie>Me
Buckley: Madame>Me>Richie
Young Writer: Richie>Madame>Me
Herman: Richie>Me>Madame
Duke: Me>Madame>Richie
Royal: Madame>Richie>Me
Margot: Richie>Me(?)>Madame(?)
Suzy: Me>Madame>Richie

So without taking the last juror into consideration and assuming Gustave gets no votes like I think he won't...

if I am against Madame:

She automatically gets 4 votes without question: Peter, Buckley, Writer, Royal
I think I automatically get 2 votes: Duke and Suzy

That would leave Richie, Margot and Herman in play. I think I get Herman's vote for a total of 3, and I think she gets Richie for a total of 5. However, this assumes Herman isn't livid with me about the round he went home, in which case I think he would be more likely to vote Madame. Margot entirely depends on how pissed at Madame she is or not.

On paper it might seem like 5-4 but in reality I think it breaks down more like 6-3 or 7-2 depending on if Margot is mad at her or not.

Against Richie:

He automatically gets 4 votes: Peter, Herman, Writer and Margot
I automatically get 3 votes: Buckley, Duke and Suzy

That leaves Royal and Madame as the deciding votes.

I think Royal doesn't vote me and therefore 5 votes go to Richie and he wins.

Madame...might vote for me? So I think I get 4 votes.

The result therefore ends up at 5-4 and I don't think that needle shifts unless I can possibly convince Peter, Margot or Herman to consider voting for me. My move at f6 with Suzy might just be the move that seals the deal to get one of their votes.

On paper I just don't think I stand a shot against Madame, I think she's just too nice and charming whereas Richie might have pissed some people off and I might have a better shot at spite votes?

It's all very much up in the air where I think I have a solid 2-3 votes no matter which way I go for 2nd place, but as far as who wins I think Madame and Richie both are more likely to sweep votes, and I think Madame is just better at explaining her game than I would be if I keep her instead of taking the opportunity to get her out here.

I hope that explains why I feel pretty low about this no matter which way the wind blows. I think I'm leading to a loss here.

[Oracle]

Oh there's also a possibility that if Richie is the last juror he gives his vote to Gustave for doing as he promised if he ties the vote and Richie loses. So I guess then I could potentially beat Madame in that scenario.

Again this is all hypothetical depending on who wins immunity here.

[Oracle]

And I have officially run out of time on the challenge. I did my best. I gave it my all, and when I was about to give up I stubbornly kept going. I don't have anything else to give to this game and now fate determines what happens.

I got 52 the last time there was a flash game and I swear to god if Madame beats me 53 to 52 again I'm going to just throw my hands up and say this wasn't my game.

It's been a ride, but tomorrow we shall see where things land.

[Oracle]

I'm actually looking at those votes, there is a scenario I beat Madame if I vote Richie out. That involves getting Margot, Herman, Suzy and Duke. Then I'd have to get Richie's vote, or get him to vote for Gustave which he might if Gustave ties the vote and Madame beats Richie in a tiebreaker. Then on the revote, I believe Gustave would get the vote again and would vote me to win.

Huh.

I thought there was no chance in hell that I could beat Madame, but in that scenario it's actually possible I could pull off a 4-4-1 and get the 1 on the revote.

And looking at that chart, I do get Buckley, however I lose my chance at Herman and Margot who would vote for Richie without question. A 5-4 at best if Madame votes for me.

Does it actually make more logical sense for me to take Madame to the end? *bites my thumbnail* holy shit I need to really think through this.

[Oracle]

Of course the above premise assumes I win immunity, which, with a score like what I got I can't count myself out yet.

[Oracle]

Okay so another weird thing that came to mind. If I were to send out Gustave here, would there be enough of a vote split between Madame and Richie and myself to cause a 3-3-3 tie? How the fuck would that resolve?!

[Oracle]

My head is reeling. Someone just cut Richie the check now.

[Brendan]

Soooooo close. It's insane that it tied. Amazing effort on that challenge!