For general discussion that doesn't fit within a specific Juror thread. Use this to theorize about what might happen, talk about possibilities in the future-- anything that Jurors normally do, just localized to prevent clogging up the individual jury forums and to make the place more organized.
Starting question, aimed at Pikachu:
Who do you think will be joining us here tomorrow? I personally think it's gonna be one of Penelope or Rust.
Eh, I can buy the strategy of keep the meat shield til you can get by without them, I don't hate that. Probably because I've done it. I think if you can pull it off, it's a viable strategy, but you gotta pull it off, it's also very risky.
Also, I need people like Judy, Leon, and Jake to justify why ignoring people's PMs at any point during merge is acceptable. Half of this game is social, and if you didn't do fuckall with that or did it incredibly poorly, that's not a game I want to vote for.I was honestly just stupid busy. Most people were getting one message from me a day, and I was racking up sleep debt even managing that. You were pretty clearly not on my side and weren't ever going to be, so I knew I was going through the motions. That wasn't personal, I quite liked you when we were on the BAU tribe. Just bidniss.
*smacks hands on the table* Where's our public callouts?Why would I make public callouts when I can instead bid everyone a fond farewell? Honestly the only person who made it to the merge who I didn't like on a personal level was Judy, and that was mostly lack of effort on her part.
or Jake if he owns up to the game he played.Please clarify?
*smacks hands on the table* Where's our public callouts?Why would I make public callouts when I can instead bid everyone a fond farewell? Honestly the only person who made it to the merge who I didn't like on a personal level was Judy, and that was mostly lack of effort on her part.
That's the thing, at the very start of merge, I absolutely wanted to do things with you. Like that deal we made on BAU I wanted to do things with, and then it just felt like I didn't exactly have a good choice if I really wanted to make it out of that first round, so I followed. You though, I did know you were busy a lot, so it was one thing when you weren't PMing anybody, and another when it more you weren't PMing me.Also, I need people like Judy, Leon, and Jake to justify why ignoring people's PMs at any point during merge is acceptable. Half of this game is social, and if you didn't do fuckall with that or did it incredibly poorly, that's not a game I want to vote for.I was honestly just stupid busy. Most people were getting one message from me a day, and I was racking up sleep debt even managing that. You were pretty clearly not on my side and weren't ever going to be, so I knew I was going through the motions. That wasn't personal, I quite liked you when we were on the BAU tribe. Just bidniss.
*smacks hands on the table* Where's our public callouts?Why would I make public callouts when I can instead bid everyone a fond farewell? Honestly the only person who made it to the merge who I didn't like on a personal level was Judy, and that was mostly lack of effort on her part.
The ironies of the fog of war, eh? Tracking a maximum of six conversations on the tribes was bad enough, but when I had to juggle ten, plus various multi-user alliance threads, it's easy to drop some balls. When one of those balls just had a big and very public falling-out with someone I thought was one of my closest allies, it came up you.
or Jake if he owns up to the game he played.Please clarify?
My reasoning basically can be shown through one simple comparison. Leon didn’t know what a swap or merge was coming into this game— yet somehow is writing out massive walls of text and managing to lie effectively. I presume saying he’s a newbie made people mych less willing to target him, especially with the recent meta that’s emerged— but based on him flipping between smart and incredibly oblivious has made me skeptical. My first game certainly wasn’t as good as this.I mean, he's unfamiliar with Survivor, he's not unfamiliar with games involving deception. I think Grouch's point in the other thread makes sense, I think Leon obviously isn't necessarily some lamb in the woods per se but being an experienced Mafia player who doesn't know Survivor makes sense with this to me (that said, I've never played Mafia on this site and only a couple times IRL so I don't necessarily have a great feel for what habits you'd expect from a Mafia player)
1) What can you do to guarantee a spot in the final?That's about as succinct an endorsement of an "I am gunning for big threats to clear the way for me" strategy as I've seen. He's pretty openly mercenary at this point, playing the threats off of one another.
To echo the other answers here, challenge wins are the only true guarantee.
2) How do you feel about players on the Jury? Do you feel like you have any safe votes?
To consider anyone a safe jury vote is the most dangerous assumption you can make. This game will be decided at the Final Tribal Council.
3) What most worries you about the current game state?
There are no guarantees. The less people there are, the greater the opportunity for things to be flipped around from one round to the next.
Eh. I'd vote for just about any of them given the right FTC group and argument. I'm reserving judgment.Hard same.
Eh. I'd vote for just about any of them given the right FTC group and argument. I'm reserving judgment.Hard same.
I don't understand the case for Penny? Unless a lot comes out, she hasn't been cognisant in many decisions for the game and faced exactly 1 TC before merge.
Penelope was by far one of the most talkative people in this game. All you had to do was find a common interest and she'd talk to you as long and often as Hercule. She was also legitimately nice all game, and idk, for me that means something.
I'm certainly feeling a type of way about the people I all really really liked still being in the game, and then Leon is there.
Probably not quite as bad as Jenny, but not far off. She burnt the bridge pretty damn hard when Nick was eliminated.
Penelope was by far one of the most talkative people in this game. All you had to do was find a common interest and she'd talk to you as long and often as Hercule. She was also legitimately nice all game, and idk, for me that means something.
I'm certainly feeling a type of way about the people I all really really liked still being in the game, and then Leon is there.
That is super different to my impression of her. She was the only person actively snarky to me. Like even Pika was more pleasant once merge happened. Probably not quite as bad as Jenny, but not far off. She burnt the bridge pretty damn hard when Nick was eliminated.
In terms of people I most liked, Poirot, Jake, and Grouch easily the best people to talk about off topic with.
But I don't think it is a mistake that four of the five least talkative people from merge are the ones that are still in the game.
You, Lucifer, Leon, Rust, Penny probably in that order.
And you started with zero personality. I ask you an open ended question and you took it nowhere. Like Scruff did the same but was explicit about it and why, and gave heaps of content besides.
For me, I don't think anyone is actually out of contention for my vote. There are people that I would rather vote for, sure, but I do not know if they will make it there. Even someone I had some issues with, like Jake, if he manages to get to the end in spite of his messy start, I could see a world in which I vote for him if he makes the right arguments. All I want is someone who does the best with the hand that the game dealt them, and had to talk their way out of trouble at one point or another. Even clutch immunity wins I'm down with, I just need there to be some kind of journey and growth. Luck isn't good enough. Also, I need people like Judy, Leon, and Jake to justify why ignoring people's PMs at any point during merge is acceptable. Half of this game is social, and if you didn't do fuckall with that or did it incredibly poorly, that's not a game I want to vote for. You can be an underdog, or UTR, or a more passive or reactionary player, and that is fine by me, I don't need someone to be active or have made #BigMoves, but you need to have had intention in all that you did.
That depends entirely on whether Penelope takes my advice or not.
As I understand things, Poirot and especially Lennie are running scared right now. We thought that alliance of five would hold together for at least another vote before falling apart.
Right now I see strong ties between Lennie and Poirot, Leon and Judy, Leon and Rust, Judy and Lucifer, perhaps Penelope and Rust, and perhaps Poirot and Penelope.
Lennie looks like he’s in trouble here, but everyone needs to look ahead. Right now, by my reckoning, Penelope, Poirot, and Judy have the most threatening cases before the jury, though if Poirot gets screwed again he’s out of that group.
Judy has consistently shown herself to be a predator. She’s been great at challenges, flips aggressively, and has the momentum. I believe she’s positioning herself to knock out all of Poirot, Lennie, and Penelope in sequence in order to reduce the final equation to herself and who she sees as goats.
I don’t have any idea what Rust and Lucifer’s plans are, aside from keeping their heads down and making a long shot/swing vote case to the jury.
My advice to Penelope was to leverage her covert alliance with Poirot to rally Poirot, Lennie, and (most likely) Rust for a majority, remove one of Judy’s supports (Leon, Lucifer) and then Judy herself. If it were me, I’d take Leon out now, but I’m biased.
If Penelope ignores me and sticks with Judy, we’ll probably see Lennie or perhaps Poirot go. If she pushes back, I’d expect Leon.
Penelope was by far one of the most talkative people in this game. All you had to do was find a common interest and she'd talk to you as long and often as Hercule. She was also legitimately nice all game, and idk, for me that means something.
I'm certainly feeling a type of way about the people I all really really liked still being in the game, and then Leon is there.
That is super different to my impression of her. She was the only person actively snarky to me. Like even Pika was more pleasant once merge happened. Probably not quite as bad as Jenny, but not far off. She burnt the bridge pretty damn hard when Nick was eliminated.
In terms of people I most liked, Poirot, Jake, and Grouch easily the best people to talk about off topic with.
But I don't think it is a mistake that four of the five least talkative people from merge are the ones that are still in the game.
Turns out the police are not popular right nowfor some reason!
Also wtf is with all the newbies in this game?I mean, depending on your definition of new, I'm pretty new myself
Blart said he was new, Lance was new, Kate said she was new, Leon is new, Jake is new, I feel like I'm new (second game in a long long time)
Hilarious considering at no point was Chase going to go that that TC.The funny thing is it still would have indirectly saved Chase though, because we wouldn't have gone to that 4th TC.
Hilarious considering at no point was Chase going to go that that TC.The funny thing is it still would have indirectly saved Chase though, because we wouldn't have gone to that 4th TC.
Guys I need to confess something. I guess both tribes at the time might be upset at me when I say this. But do you remember the puzzle challenge? I lied about losing power, I was legitimately trying to throw the challenge in attempt to help save Chase. It didn’t work because we somehow still won that challenge. Nick was the only one I told iirc.Oh... uh, that's actually kinda hilarious. At the time that happened, I had sent an awful lot of messages saying it was awfully unfair to penalize us all for something completely out of our control like a power outage and I was going to be absolutely livid if that's what we lost because of. So that's super fun. Sorry mods for all of those messages.
Speaking of challenge throwing— why did Grouch get such a high score in the money challenge?I've never thrown a challenge, I'm just not super good at many challenges. Some I have a good chance at, but not too many. And ones with math, lol no.
Speaking of challenge throwing— why did Grouch get such a high score in the money challenge?Maybe you guys are vastly more up on international exchange rates but the way the scoring worked seemed like it added a lot of potential variance, because it wasn't really measuring how accurate your estimates of exchange rates were, since if you overestimated one and underestimated another, they could balance out. I think by having vastly larger quantities for a few currencies helped to balance that a little but it would have made more sense using absolute values or squares of the differences. I think we probably would have lost anyway, but I was really surprised at how low Narcotics Unit's scores were.
I mean, Leon loves Rust too, it may be a case of Lucifer recognising Rust's threat and forcing rocks if Leon can't be convinced to vote Rust.BTW, on this point, does Leon actually love anyone? I seriously don't think he has had any lasting loyalty to anyone in the game save maybe Scruff. I know that during the merge Rust and Leon seemed to have to rebuild their relationship to some extent (I guess after the Pikachu vote?), and maybe that was fake but I don't think so. I know Leon and Rust liked each other on the Narcotics Unit but Rust seemed to be unsure about their relationship.
I mean, Leon loves Rust too, it may be a case of Lucifer recognising Rust's threat and forcing rocks if Leon can't be convinced to vote Rust.BTW, on this point, does Leon actually love anyone? I seriously don't think he has had any lasting loyalty to anyone in the game save maybe Scruff. I know that during the merge Rust and Leon seemed to have to rebuild their relationship to some extent (I guess after the Pikachu vote?), and maybe that was fake but I don't think so. I know Leon and Rust liked each other on the Narcotics Unit but Rust seemed to be unsure about their relationship.
Guys I need to confess something. I guess both tribes at the time might be upset at me when I say this. But do you remember the puzzle challenge? I lied about losing power, I was legitimately trying to throw the challenge in attempt to help save Chase. It didn’t work because we somehow still won that challenge. Nick was the only one I told iirc.
I had a really high score on the exchange rates challenge because I did alright on most of them and was then off by orders of magnitude on a few. :(
You know, I suspected at the time that Pikachu might have been lying about throwing, but didn’t really care. We had Quentin as a buffer.
Leon - Claims he is a newbie which I don't really believe? At the very least, this probably isn't his first game. Either way, the opposition would have to be majorly dumb to let him get to the end.
Hahah holy shit what was that???
Leon - Claims he is a newbie which I don't really believe? At the very least, this probably isn't his first game. Either way, the opposition would have to be majorly dumb to let him get to the end.
But I'm a newbie? Lol
Leon - Claims he is a newbie which I don't really believe? At the very least, this probably isn't his first game. Either way, the opposition would have to be majorly dumb to let him get to the end.
But I'm a newbie? Lol
If that’s true, you played one HELL of a game. Congrats for getting as far as you did!
My reasoning basically can be shown through one simple comparison. Leon didn’t know what a swap or merge was coming into this game— yet somehow is writing out massive walls of text and managing to lie effectively. I presume saying he’s a newbie made people mych less willing to target him, especially with the recent meta that’s emerged— but based on him flipping between smart and incredibly oblivious has made me skeptical. My first game certainly wasn’t as good as this.I mean, he's unfamiliar with Survivor, he's not unfamiliar with games involving deception. I think Grouch's point in the other thread makes sense, I think Leon obviously isn't necessarily some lamb in the woods per se but being an experienced Mafia player who doesn't know Survivor makes sense with this to me (that said, I've never played Mafia on this site and only a couple times IRL so I don't necessarily have a great feel for what habits you'd expect from a Mafia player)
I'm still not clear on what happened on that vote, other than that Leon voted for Rust so Poirot must have voted for Leon, but he could have voted Rust and gotten Rust out, which seems like a far better move? Maybe it was the sort of thing where he wasn't certain how the votes would fall, or that he'd irrevocably burn Rust's jury vote if he tricked him into voting Leon and then backstabbed him?
Oh sorry, I misunderstood then. But still I have the same question about Rust then, I guess it substantially increases the likelihood that he's in the F2.I'm still not clear on what happened on that vote, other than that Leon voted for Rust so Poirot must have voted for Leon, but he could have voted Rust and gotten Rust out, which seems like a far better move? Maybe it was the sort of thing where he wasn't certain how the votes would fall, or that he'd irrevocably burn Rust's jury vote if he tricked him into voting Leon and then backstabbed him?
I voted for Hercule.
Lucifer voted for Rust.
Hercule and Rust voted for me.
Oh btw, @Scruff, were you really my closest ally in the game? I'd love to know your honest answer.
Oh btw, @Scruff, were you really my closest ally in the game? I'd love to know your honest answer.
You were my closest ally up until somewhere in the middle of the Narcotics Unit where you mentioned that you were doubting the validity of our bond together-- around maybe the vote after Cheddar? With you saying that you would be fine with a Pikachu and Grouch alliance (with us in it), that showed that you didn't have a lot of trust or faith in what I was saying and that I likely couldn't rely on you to stick with me 100% of the time in the future-- thus me growing attached to Rust (And Pikachu, to a lesser extent) over the course of that tribe. I was absolutely on your side throughout the first tribe and I pretty much fought for your name to never be brought up or even mentioned despite the mediocre challenge performances.
Oh btw, @Scruff, were you really my closest ally in the game? I'd love to know your honest answer.
You were my closest ally up until somewhere in the middle of the Narcotics Unit where you mentioned that you were doubting the validity of our bond together-- around maybe the vote after Cheddar? With you saying that you would be fine with a Pikachu and Grouch alliance (with us in it), that showed that you didn't have a lot of trust or faith in what I was saying and that I likely couldn't rely on you to stick with me 100% of the time in the future-- thus me growing attached to Rust (And Pikachu, to a lesser extent) over the course of that tribe. I was absolutely on your side throughout the first tribe and I pretty much fought for your name to never be brought up or even mentioned despite the mediocre challenge performances.
Rust was actually the reason why I doubted you cause he said you and Pikachu have some sort of "secret" closeness, so I was questioning it cause I know you were my closest ally. I never would turn my back on you lol. I also tried to save you after Pikachu was idoled out.
I mean, I had a conversation with him about how to sell himself in FTC because he was getting pretty defeatist after the Grouch elimination.