E9 - "See, the preacher, he encourages your capacity for illusion"

[Rust Cohle]

It's the final seven, and it's looking very much like the winner of this game will be the person who reaches the final three with Lucifer and Leon.  I'm in a pretty decent spot to make a run at that.

Somehow, I've managed to do what I wanted to do all game.  I'm the third from the bottom, in terms of perceived threat level.  I think if anyone really does a deep jury analysis they'll realize I have a pretty favorable jury at the moment, but I don't believe that's what they're looking at right now.  The "big three" of Hercule/Judy/Lennie are splitting at the seams.  Judy strongarmed the Jake vote and not only did she annoy her alliance mates in doing so, she also made them think she's the biggest threat to win in the game.  Beyond that, Penelope is still viewed as a threat both socially and in the challenges, and she's going to be in danger before me any round she isn't immune.  Catch 22, because the the more she is immune the more likely she is eliminated the moment she loses immunity again.

Judy offered Lucifer an alliance of three with me.  I know she is angling to get to final four with Lucifer and Leon so she can cut me there, but she's seen to be such a huge threat that if we did get to that final four she would have to win immunity or she's the one who gets eliminated.

Hercule hopefully still sees me as his ace in the hole.  He put in work to push the votes away from me in the round Scruff went home.  He would cut me at four if the other options are Leon and Lucifer too, but just like Judy he would have to win immunity there or it's him instead.

Lennie and I have the least connection of the three, and therefore he is the one I would prefer to see go first, perhaps as soon as this round.  He thinks Judy will target him here and he might be right.  I certainly wouldn't try to dissuade her.

Penelope has to go home soon.  It's the biggest betrayal I'll perpetrate this game, but I can't beat her in challenges and I probably can't beat her at FTC.  I also can't afford to let her take my place as the person Judy and Hercule both want to use against each other.  I'm well served to be the last man standing from the 12th Precinct from here on out.  I hope if she isn't immune this round that Hercule and Judy can put aside their differences to get her out right now.

Lucifer knows he's in a poor spot, but as it stands I should still be among his best options to face in the end.  We've stuck together since the first attempt to vote Jake out when Pikachu went home, we had a short-lived F3 alliance with Grouch and now we have an alliance with Judy.  He's unlikely to initiate any turn against me, though he could be convinced to go along with one if anyone else makes that move.

Leon is an enigma at this point.  I don't think he can win, but he also does poorly in every challenge including misreading the directions.  He'd be great to face in the final three, but he's a liability at final four because he won't win the challenge, meaning it will be up to me or Lucifer to beat whoever else we're there with.  Neither of us has been amazing in the challenges either.  Of all the eliminations left in the game the final four is the most likely place for me to go out, and I will if the only bigger threat than me wins immunity.  I doubt that anyone will seriously consider targeting Leon before then, but if the idea gets floated I'll strongly consider it.  I'd rather a more competitive FTC that I have better odds of reaching than taking the chance of handing the whole game to somebody else because I can't win the final immunity challenge.

[Scully and Hitchcock]

SCULLY: We just got done reading your report.
HITCHCOCK: I usually only read books they make movies out of, but this... wait, no.
SCULLY: You mean movies they make books out of.
HITCHCOCK: Right.  This was good though, what's next?

[Rust Cohle]

Between Penelope and Lennie, it's a tough decision for me.

Penelope is my most direct competition if we were to go to final tribal council together.  She and I occupy the same lane.  She's strong in challenges, which makes her difficult to remove if I don't do it now.  But she has had my back and I have absolutely no indication that will change.

Lennie is also a threat to win, and he is much more likely to decide to target me at some point between here and the end.  He also has the most sway over Leon, and at this point two votes that are reliably together is a powerful thing.  We've talked about working with Leon together but I don't know how serious he is about that, and Leon doesn't give me enough to rely on.

[Rust Cohle]

The anatomy of my most important move of the game...

I knew I would be offline for most of Saturday, and mobile only in the short windows I could be active, because I was making the return journey of the same 18 hour drive I took last weekend.  So it was important that whatever I wanted to end up happening I set the ball in motion on Friday night.

I was truly torn between voting off Lennie or Penelope, and I was in the position of being the swing vote, although I don't think Judy, Lucifer and Penelope knew I was considering anything but siding with them.  Because public perception had me so firmly in the anti-Lennie camp I considered it extremely dangerous to pledge to vote Penelope early in the tribal council even if that would be my final decision.  Lennie was in desperation mode and that would be an easy thing to use to try to flip it on me.  But the most important thing I had to do was the same it has been every round of this merge - have a special and very deep strategic conversation with Hercule.

Several important things happened in our conversation Friday night.  To set the stage, it is clear from the outset that he is not willing to vote Lennie, but he acknowledges that I have perfectly valid reasons to choose to do so.   He makes an impassioned case for why Lennie is critical to bring with us to final four, which dovetails with the other thread of our conversation about how dangerous it is for the Little Threats to hang around to the end because they end up taking FTC seats from the Big Threats.  I understand this particular argument well, as I have frequently been a Big Threat.  I have no problem getting Hercule in complete agreement with the idea.  But the thing is, I'm not a Big Threat this game.  I'm in the unique position of being the Little Big Threat.

The Little Big Threat is the person who would lose to the Big Threats, but who wins an FTC with all Little Threats.  So Hercule's ideal endgame, assuring that both Leon and Lucifer are not present at the F4 with us, is counter to mine.  I need Leon and Lucifer.  But in ramping this conversation up, an opportunity presents itself.  I begin agreeing with Hercule that the actual best course of action, if we are to arrive at a final four in a situation other than being forced to target each other, is to remove one of Leon or Lucifer as soon as possible.  As in, right now, at the final seven.  Hercule suggests that Lennie, with his back to the wall, would likely part ways with Leon to save himself.

At this point, it is quite clear to me that having Lennie and Hercule at the final four can only end poorly for me.  I don't foresee any other opportunity to remove Lennie if I go against Penelope now.  He has to go this round.

Here I snatch my opportunity, demonstrated in this exchange:

I really want us to be on the same page about this vote, and not in a way that you're making a vote you don't like just because of the numbers.  I think Penelope is the way we accomplish that, so if the numbers are otherwise locked in and I can make it a majority that's good for me.

You would vote for Mlle Garcia 'ere? If you would do zat, zen I would be so 'appy. I swear I'm not just trying to get an SVU majority over you and M. Morningstar or anything like zat. I really think we need Mlle Garcia and Mlle Hopps out before ze F4, and zere are few votes left to make eet 'appen.

But also, we could always do M. Kennedy even if Mlle Hopps does not love eet? M. Briscoe would vote zat way to save 'imself, and I think we could pull in M. Morningstar. Honestly, if we solidified zose four as an alliance right now and voted out M. Kennedy, I think zat would be a move most...how do you say "badass" and would be a really great way to start paving our path to ze end in zis messy merge.

I will do it, but I think it's really important for both of us that you act as unsure as possible about my vote this round.  If it's clear there's a majority already, we lose the chance to get it on Leon instead.  If we can't get that, we can push this vote through even if Judy decides not to join it.  As you say, it may be beneficial to do something that pulls the rug out from under her, to weaken her claim to controlling the late game.

My lips are sealed. I will not tell a soul zat you said zis, not even M. Briscoe who yes I am obviously close to, but I do think 'e would cut me if eet benefitted 'im. We both are working towards a common goal 'ere. I think M. Kennedy getting out would be parfait for our games, and I think zere ees a chance of eet 'appening.

M. Briscoe will only do eet if 'e 'as to in order to save 'imself, but 'e ees ze type to do whatever 'e 'as to.

Satisfied, I sign off and head to bed.  My ball is in motion, and my hands will remain clean.

Hercule, confident that if all else fails he now has my vote to make a majority against Penelope, sets out in earnest to betray Leon, his other necessary Penelope vote.  He gets Lennie in on the act.  But to make a new majority they need one of the three Lennie voters.  The thing is, none of those three have any real reason to side with them here, and every reason to tattle to Leon.  Which is exactly what they do.  Leon explodes and abandons the Penelope vote to lock in on Lennie for this betrayal.

Yeah, Leon is pissed. He mentioned his preferred final 3 is now himself and us.

Lennie basically said in the alliance group chat that Leon's preference for Jake didn't count and because I went for Jake when it was 2v1 I tore the alliance apart so he was justified to come after me. Leon basically went "fuck [Lennie], he ripped us apart" but with less french.

Lennie is still arguing driving home even more that he never views Leon as a player, and only as a goat with no feelings or wants.

In one fell swoop I have:
1) Thrust a dagger into the heart of the SVU alliance once and for all
2) Created a situation where the majority against Lennie exists without my vote, thus excusing me from my promise to Hercule because it's pointless to vote in the minority (although he winds up doing it anyway, a quixotic move from a player who has otherwise faithfully followed the majority no matter how negative he considered the elimination to be for his own game)
3) Taken away Hercule's remaining security blanket, thus binding him to me all the more tightly
4) Severed Leon's connection to both Hercule and Lennie, driving him back to me once and for all

Hey Rust! Never mind what I said about Penelope. It seems like Lennie and Hercule are playing with me. They were backstabbing me and Judy all along. It's probably because they were hurt about Judy and I going for Jake when my priority is our alliance of four, but clearly, that wasn't their priority and they just played me cause they want to get Judy out.

I'm pretty sure they're trying to get you on board with me as the counter vote. Rust, we've been through so much together and I know there are cases that we've hurt each other, but it took me a long time to realize that it should've been you that I should've allied with. I trusted the wrong person and now I'm willing to give up my loyalty and trust to them and put it on you because that's what it should have been. I'm sorry for everything that I did to you Rust, but I'm hoping that I could rely on you and have my back.

With that said, I'll be voting for Lennie this round. I'm pretty sure Judy is the one pushing it. Lucifer is on board, too. Pretty sure Penelope would be too and I hope you'll be too. Lennie and Hercule aren't the person that I thought I could rely on. I hope you're on board with this. I still stand with what I've said. Judy, Penelope, and Hercule are still the strongest players here that we'll have no chance to compete on. Would you be interested in a final three with Lucifer? And us together in the final two?

If I do make the final tribal council, this will be the pivotal game move on my resume.

[Rust Cohle]

How to Lose Individual Immunity Challenges

A play in three acts, by Rust Cohle

[Rust Cohle]

I expected one of Judy or Penelope to win that immunity, that would have made this vote a little easier.

[Rust Cohle]

I hope that Lucifer and Leon both see the same ideal endgame as I do.

I hope that Penelope and Hercule are truly irreconcilable at this point.

I believe my position is secure here.

But this is the final six.  There is no room for error.  If Penelope, Hercule and Judy realize they are the three big threats, their best move becomes to work together to break up the three little threats.  Of the three little threats, I am the obvious target.  I am walking on eggshells.