Hi Penelope
I think at this stage, you are officially my Closest Ally And Friend (CAAF). I have a sense you feel similarly.
I am therefore going to tell you pretty much everything...with DIAGRAMS. Much of this is going to be posted directly and without filter to my confessional.
Back in the 27th, we started the game with a "first day" alliance between myself, Scruff, and Lennie. We called ourselves the Good Old Boys, because we connected on nostalgia like classic rock and 90s TV shows. Even before the first TC, Scruff and I began to realize that Lennie had his own agenda, so we started looking for a new partner - Leon. We cast about for a name, but didn't find one until we all sent in "Wheelman" for ourselves in the personality challenge. And so the Wheelmen were born.
In the BAU, Scruff and I became closer, and initiated 2+2 alliances with Grouch Cop/Lucifer and Nick/Pikachu. I had a one-to-one connection with Rust as well. I'll confess that, at the time, your name was thrown out as an option for TC, but that was before I knew you well and before you impressed the hell out of me in challenges and conversation. Those alliances never got tested.
In the Strike Team, as you well know, I got to know you and Nick very well, and had thought to found a merge alliance with you, bringing in Scruff, Leon, Lennie, and anyone else who might be floating around. In hindsight, it was a weak plan, and that (as well as Lucifer's betrayal) is what necessitated the flip on Nick. Nick rallied, but it was unfortunately a bluff and we lost him. Meanwhile, I have a good connection with Poirot, though Judy clearly dislikes me. He recognizes that she is a liability and needs to go eventually. Lennie is a question mark. He's smart, cagey, and has made good decisions so far. I *do not know* what he's thinking.
Rust and Pikachu are tight now. Cheddar and Grouch went hard for Pikachu, but Scruff, Leon, and Rust came to his rescue. Grouch views it as a betrayal, and has his sights set on Scruff and Leon now.
====================
Ta da! The merge.
Existing alliances and connections, as I understand them. Green is for strong alliances, blue are weaker. I started doing thickness as an indicator of strength halfway through, so it's only semi-accurate.
Red lines indicate some form of attack, betrayal, or other enmity. You'll notice there are dotted red lines outlining the green alliance between Lennie and I. He surprised me with pushing for Nick, but seems to still view me as an ally. He does not know that I was prepared to condone an idol move by Nick. There are simmering tensions, but so far we're still putative allies.
Anticipated voting blocs in orange. I'd like to bring you in with the Wheelmen, if we can. The four of us would be a very strong bloc, and it's where I was going with the F4 comment.
And finally, how we win. Right now, our allies are scattered and have barely survived attacks. Similarly, our opponents (consisting almost entirely of the former 99th) will gather allies to them. If we can pick up Rustachu and the Wheelmen, we will have the numbers, especially if we bill ourselves, the BAUsterds, as a free agent pair.
Penelope, this starts with us. Are you with me?