Author Topic: THE MERGE  (Read 531 times)

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
THE MERGE
« on: July 22, 2020, 01:31:15 pm »
The complete text of two messages I just sent to Penelope, containing almost everything I know of the gamestate. The only things I held back from her are that Scruff and I have expressed "closest ally" to one another repeatedly (though on my end that's stale, as I don't know how present he is) and the fact that I have the Sergeant's idol. Enjoy:
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2020, 01:31:57 pm »
Hi Penelope

I think at this stage, you are officially my Closest Ally And Friend (CAAF). I have a sense you feel similarly.

I am therefore going to tell you pretty much everything...with DIAGRAMS. Much of this is going to be posted directly and without filter to my confessional.

Back in the 27th, we started the game with a "first day" alliance between myself, Scruff, and Lennie. We called ourselves the Good Old Boys, because we connected on nostalgia like classic rock and 90s TV shows. Even before the first TC, Scruff and I began to realize that Lennie had his own agenda, so we started looking for a new partner - Leon. We cast about for a name, but didn't find one until we all sent in "Wheelman" for ourselves in the personality challenge. And so the Wheelmen were born.

In the BAU, Scruff and I became closer, and initiated 2+2 alliances with Grouch Cop/Lucifer and Nick/Pikachu. I had a one-to-one connection with Rust as well. I'll confess that, at the time, your name was thrown out as an option for TC, but that was before I knew you well and before you impressed the hell out of me in challenges and conversation. Those alliances never got tested.

In the Strike Team, as you well know, I got to know you and Nick very well, and had thought to found a merge alliance with you, bringing in Scruff, Leon, Lennie, and anyone else who might be floating around. In hindsight, it was a weak plan, and that (as well as Lucifer's betrayal) is what necessitated the flip on Nick. Nick rallied, but it was unfortunately a bluff and we lost him. Meanwhile, I have a good connection with Poirot, though Judy clearly dislikes me. He recognizes that she is a liability and needs to go eventually. Lennie is a question mark. He's smart, cagey, and has made good decisions so far. I *do not know* what he's thinking.

Rust and Pikachu are tight now. Cheddar and Grouch went hard for Pikachu, but Scruff, Leon, and Rust came to his rescue. Grouch views it as a betrayal, and has his sights set on Scruff and Leon now.

====================



Ta da! The merge.



Existing alliances and connections, as I understand them. Green is for strong alliances, blue are weaker. I started doing thickness as an indicator of strength halfway through, so it's only semi-accurate.



Red lines indicate some form of attack, betrayal, or other enmity. You'll notice there are dotted red lines outlining the green alliance between Lennie and I. He surprised me with pushing for Nick, but seems to still view me as an ally. He does not know that I was prepared to condone an idol move by Nick. There are simmering tensions, but so far we're still putative allies.



Anticipated voting blocs in orange. I'd like to bring you in with the Wheelmen, if we can. The four of us would be a very strong bloc, and it's where I was going with the F4 comment.



And finally, how we win. Right now, our allies are scattered and have barely survived attacks. Similarly, our opponents (consisting almost entirely of the former 99th) will gather allies to them. If we can pick up Rustachu and the Wheelmen, we will have the numbers, especially if we bill ourselves, the BAUsterds, as a free agent pair.

Penelope, this starts with us. Are you with me?
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Alexandra Cabot

  • Spectator
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2020, 04:19:39 am »
i'm dumb as rocks can you explain to me what the tribal vibe is currently

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2020, 07:16:33 am »
Tense.

There are a LOT of interconnecting alliances, and right now we're all like penguins at the edge of an ice floe trying to juggle who's loyal to whom and find an unobjectionable first boot. That first one will dictate the numbers for the second, and probably the third, fourth, fifth and beyond.

I've formalized a new alliance with Lennie and Poirot. We're calling ourselves the Backbone, in reference to this diagram:



The observation is that there are multiple loci of alliances, but that Poirot, Lennie, and I represent a controlling interest in pretty much all of them except Rustachu, which I can exercise influence over.

On the table are all of the names at the top of the diagram. We initially considered Grouch, but discarded him because we want to keep the Wheelmen (Scruff/Leon/Jake) vs Grouch/Lucifer feud going. Rust was considered, but he's probably the most agreeable of the options. I don't want to do Pikachu, because I am very concerned that an alternate controlling interest may form around Lennie and the 99th, and then we're stuck 5-5 and it's down to idols, items, or rocks...or perhaps Leon's loyalty. I could join that alignment myself, but it's internally unstable and I'd be on the outside. I'd end up getting pruned myself.

So, the vibe? Tense.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2020, 01:47:06 pm »
I think it might be me.

Penelope's suddenly talking in riddles, Rustachu are resistant to anyone but Lennie/Poirot/Judy but won't name a name, Grouch and Lennie haven't been talking to me, Poirot's worried.

I need to decide whether to play my idol.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2020, 01:55:53 pm »
Well, there it is. Poirot confirms that there is a move to vote me out. Pikachu leads Lucifer, Grouch, and Rust against me, and Poirot believes they have Penelope's support. And to think, I was telling her everything.

Well, not everything everything.

No one knows I have an idol, and I don't want to tell them. Let it be a surprise.

The vote hinges on Judy, who has had reason to be antagonistic towards me in the past, and likely knows by now that Poirot sees her as a liability. I believe she will cast the deciding vote, which may cause my other allies to collapse on me.

If this shakes out the way I expect, we may see the far side crystallize into Poirot and the 27th against everyone else.

Let's fucking do this.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2020, 05:40:03 pm »


First time I've ever been viewed as a critical social threat. That's a new one for me.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2020, 05:40:23 pm »
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2020, 07:54:09 am »
I have no idea where things are headed.

Leon and I seem to have patched things up with Scruff, but I doubt he's long for the game.

Poirot and Lennie want to remove Scruff.

Leon and Scruff want to remove one of Grouchifer.

Judy wants Rust, and thinks Poirot will never go for Grouchifer.

I'm becoming worried about a crypto-alliance between Poirot and Grouchifer. I don't know if Lennie is in on that, but I'm sure Leon isn't and Judy's the one who dropped me the hint.

I haven't the foggiest idea where Penelope is at.

I'm trying to keep my head down, but no one else is making bold moves.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2020, 03:30:38 pm »
Scruff has a real talent for turning his paranoia into reality.

In two votes, he's gone from one of my closest and most trusted allies to the target of a vote he's brought on himself.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2020, 08:17:03 pm »
I think my ticket gets punched this round. Right now it's the Backbone alliance (Jake, Poirot, Lennie) as well as Judy and Leon who are allegedly holding firm as a 5-4 bulwark (Juke Hecleonnie). I think that falls apart before it gets going, because my gut says Judy flips on us, maybe bringing Leon with her. Then god help you with an even more disastrously-Balkanized gamestate.

I'm going to bed.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2020, 11:49:51 am »
I'm feeling a little more confident. There's a lot more activity from all sides in the Juke Hercleonnie thread, which would be a lot of theater just to keep me in the dark. There's still the chance that one of them screws me, but I think odds are >50% that this alliance of five actually sticks together.

But only a little more than 50%. I may be a little burned by Scruff and Penelope's betrayals.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!

Jake Peralta

  • Desk Duty
  • Cool. Cool cool cool cool cool.
    • View Profile
Re: THE MERGE
« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2020, 05:05:17 pm »
WAY too close.

At least we know this alliance is honest. For now.
Oh my god this is just like Die Hard!