Just sent this marathon message to Grouch Cop, which summarizes my positions on many tribemates. Tonight is the night for really filling out this confessional, but here's a teaser [editor's notes in brackets]:
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Whew, I got my first good nights' sleep in a while last night. I'll be far more active through the weekend, and I'm past the roughest part of the summer rush now. Everything else should be downhill.
Alrighty then! Having the four of us [Scruff, Peralta, Grouch, Lucifer] as the founding members of a hopefully post-merge alliance I think really firms up the course of this game. We'll probably face a challenge at some point, but this should be a strong foundation. This game's rules allow for multi-user PM chains. What would you say to initiating one for strategic discussion?
[Responding to Grouch saying he was fully on board and didn't need more convincing, but that he understood and appreciated caution] I do tend to be a bit coy at first. I've been burned by misunderstanding intentions, so I do prefer to make sure everyone's on the same page before formalizing things. To match your unambiguous statement, I recognized not only the numbers game immediately, but also favored you and Luci on a personal level. The only other person I've connected strongly to is Rust, and I would like to pursue him as the fifth member of the BAU alliance.
I agree we should keep our heads down, perhaps continue to present ourselves as pairs sticking together, but coordinating quietly. While I think we can poach former 12thers, drawing attention to ourselves risks them firming up their tribal lines.
I don't know that Quentin himself bears much more discussion until a vote comes up. The four of us seem to all be managing him adequately. My intention would be to bring him on to any vote individually, but not actually rely on him. [Grouch had alluded to getting "probing questions re: Quentin from Penelope and Pikachu] What sort of probing questions have you gotten? Inquiries about him as a target?
Given your allusion to Judy as the main proponent of Quentin['s elimination at TC2] and her cheeky attempt to get an illicit D&D game going, would it be fair to assess her as a bold player, making open moves? With or without guile? Would she be an asset or hindrance in the future? Your prediction about Chan [being the TC4 vote] seems to have been spot on.
Rust is an interesting character. When we talked music, he's mostly into country music, but we got reeeeal geeky about folk music, too. He's a bit soft-spoken, you might need to press a bit more to really get good stuff out of him, but it's in there. He's a bit concerned about Lucifer, but only insofar as Luci is a cagey devil in the get-to-know-you stage. If Luci's interested in following up on those good vibes, he'd probably get through better if he approached him more directly.
I get your wariness about Pikachu. I initially saw him as a good recruit from the 12th, but lately I'm worried that his warmth is only an inch or two deep. Like with you, he's been seeking information in a way that is neither subtle enough to pass nor straightforward enough to be honest inquiry. I think we could perhaps rely on him for the "right" vote, but not all of them. One of the straightest things he's told me is that he's close to Nick, which is not encouraging. He also implied that Penelope was not the leader I was guessing, and that her main strength is challenges.
Speaking of Penelope, she's an odd character. I don't know whether she's just channeling her avatar, but she seems to be making only modest efforts on the social front. Oh, she's nice enough, and clever, but she's investing heavily, almost exclusively, into the challenge side of things. I thought she might be a good first target, but she's been such an asset that it might be a tough vote. I'm thinking that Pikachu might be the real queen bee of the 12th.
Nick's definitely got the chops for banter, to the point that it makes him pretty opaque. We spent the first several messages just talking about introduction GIFs and hypothetical situations from our source material. I took your advice and brought up video games with him, and he replied positively.
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Cheers