What I know about existing alliances right now:
Hercule / Judy / Lennie == This is a core trio I'm assuming exists based on how the SVU tribe shook out. Without a deeper connection to Lennie there is no good explanation for why Hercule and Judy would cut Chase and leave Cheddar in the dark about it rather than just voting out Lennie's ally Leon.
Hercule / Judy // Cheddar == There was a four person alliance with these three 99thers and Chase, but Hercule and Judy turned on Chase and hung Cheddar out to dry on the minority side of the vote against Leon. Cheddar seems like the type to allow himself to be reeled back in by the people who played him if they can spin their damage control the right way.
Lennie / Leon == Lennie was described by Jake and Scruff as the cleverest and craftiest of the original 27th. On SVU, Lennie and Leon were an explicit pair. I figure Lennie thinks he has Leon pocketed. Leon is so earnest it may be tough to get him out of that pocket.
Rust / Pikachu
Rust / Pikachu / Nick
Rust / Pikachu / Scruff
Rust / Scruff / Jake
Rust / Scruff / Jake / Pikachu / Nick
==
Aside from the Pika/Scruff/Rust trio working together on the Quentin vote none of the above is actually battle tested, but this five was the presumed BAU majority per Scruff. Rust/Pika/Nick + Chase on the 12th that was also the presumed majority there.
Rust / Scruff / Leon == implied, Leon assumes this is the core of the Narcotics Unit.
Pika / Grouch == There's something here because Grouch shared the fingerprint clue with Pikachu
Grouch / Cheddar == presumed, and forced together by the circumstance of Scruff aggressively targeting the 99th
Grouch / Lucifer == presumed to be a duo on BAU
Pika / Penelope == The remnants of Kate Macer's trio alliance, RIP Kate
Hercule / Judy / Lucifer / Grouch / Cheddar == not confirmed, but Scruff assumes the 99th is unified or could become so, and it suits my needs to follow that narrative for now
I know very little about:
Penelope's connections outside of Pikachu
Nick's connections outside of the the 12th Precinct Trio and the BAU Five
Lucifer's connections to anyone
Judy, Hercule and Lennie beyond hearsay and informed hypothesis
Concerns:
Pikachu has many side piece connections
Pikachu's connection to Grouch could be a source of friction, though I'm less concerned he would outright flip to Grouch and Cheddar after he cast the insurance vote against Cheddar
Current friction between Pikachu and Leon, if they can patch this up we would have a much more secure Narco Four
Penelope is way too social to have zero connections, she is likely to work herself into the Strike Team power structure
Jake and Nick could easily wind up on the bottom if Strike Team goes to TC
