Alright, let's do some brainstorming. My primary goal is to take out Coco either this TC or next TC. If Chrysalis never gave Rarity the sprites and/or she lied about it being an idol nullifier then I guess we have to save Coco for next TC. But for all intents and purposes let's assume she does. What would be the best order to accomplish this?
Coco -> Granny -- This is the most ideal boot order. It would take out two notable FTC threats and leave me with Pear, whose only claim to fame is being a challenge beast, Rarity, who mostly followed Rainbow around most of the game then whimpered around like a lost puppy late game, and DJ, whose played just as good as I have if not better, but I'm content with losing to her. The only issue is if it's attainable, barring the obvious "does Rarity have the sprites" question. Taking Coco out would put a huge target on me and DJ's backs, and while Granny's game has been great this move might put us over the edge of her. My only saving grace is that Rarity thinks DJ's a bigger threat than me, and Granny may or may not have thrown out DJ's name last TC to Chrysalis. But that could easily flip-flop depending on how I go about this, and I wouldn't really want DJ booted honestly.
Granny -> Coco - By taking out Granny first, it's a bit more likely that Coco would still be a big enough threat to where she'd need to be targeted over me and DJ, especially after she plays an idol this round and gets away with telling our alliance about it second TC. The only risk involved is if Coco wins immunity next challenge, which would not only mean we'd never get a chance to directly vote her out, but it'll be very likely me or DJ would be voted out instead to boot.
Rarity -> Coco - Taking out either of Granny or Coco could put a big target on me and DJ since we'd be essentially the only threatening pair left. There's a chance Rarity/Pear wouldn't buy a Granny/Coco boot the TC after. This alleviates that by delaying backstabbing my alliance by a TC. However, a me/DJ/Granny/Pear final four is not entirely ideal, and Pear could decide to stick with the rest of the SAAs and vote out me or DJ, which will make the final four me/Granny/Coco/Pear, which would make it next to impossible for me to win.
Pear -> Coco - I feel Rarity would be more willing to vote out Coco than Pear given enough persuasion. However, she's not nearly as big of a challenge beast, meaning Coco would have a higher chance of winning immunity. And I don't know if Rarity would be comfortable voting out Pear this TC. It just feels like I'm slowly snipping away any chance of her at winning, and she might be less than thrilled to hear whatever I'm pitching.
Coco -> Rarity - Is this even possible? I feel I'd have to talk to Granny to see if she'd be comfortable voting out Coco, and that's actually not a terrible idea considering I have immunity. But if me/Granny/DJ could still regroup after that then I guess we could go for Rarity afterwards. I'm not sure if it'd be worth it though.
And that's pretty much everything I could think of, or everything that at least makes some amount of sense. I'm never cutting DJ unless there's so much resistance I can't possibly stop her from being voted out, in which case I feel I'd still want to vote with her just 'cus. Writing it all out, I think it might be best to go Granny -> Coco here. I'll have to talk it out with DJ, but what I'm thinking is I approach Rarity first, possibly even exposing our alliance and spilling as much as I feel necessary to convince her, then be like "Coco has an idol so we can't go after her now, but what we can do is take out Granny and then me/you/DJ can take out Coco next TC" and if Rarity objects saying she has the idol nullifier then I guess that's cool. I feel the worse that could happen is DJ is booted out, but that'll put such a huge target on Coco that I can't imagine her not being booted the TC after. Then me and Granny can pretty much be square, and while she has gotten her way more than once I feel I also have the benefit of fore-fronting the Rainbow and later Coco votes and just being a bigger target overall, so I feel I'd have a good chance against Granny.
But if I were to rank how well I'd fare against these ponies in FTC now, I'd say it's something like Coco > Granny > ME! > DJ > Rarity > Pear. Granny/Me/DJ could easily be swapped around depending on how the last two TCs unfold, and if I can boot Granny out while sparing DJ I might have something over Coco too. I feel Rarity has a slim chance of winning, and it's probably impossible for Pear to win unless he has an amazing FTC or everypony else flops badly.
Topic: Episode 17 [F6] (Read 1941 times)