Coco in Canterlot

[Princess Celestia]

Write down the wacky ideas first so we can speculate!

[Coco Pommel]

My personal favourite was 'what if I aggressively suggest an alliance between me/Rarity/DJ for the rest of the game and use my idols to force it to happen?'

[Coco Pommel]

For sure. I might have worked with Dash the longest, but you have been the nicest and most fun to talk to and I really treasure that, Coco.

Rarity is lovely.

[Coco Pommel]

In related news...

Let's work backwards through the rest of this game. So we want to make it to F3. We agree that we could probably both beat Pear at the end. I think we'd have a good shot against Soarin, and (if you still feel the same way) you feel alright about our chances against Chrysalis. But regardless, do we basically agree that DJ and Granny are the biggest FTC threats? Also, my idol expires after Final 6, so the round we need to be most concerned about is Final 5.
With both of those things in mind, I think it makes sense for us to make sure at least one of DJ/Granny is still around at F5. That way, there's an obvious vote that round and we don't have to be very worried about one of us biting the dust there. These next two rounds we can manage, I'm sure of it, but we've got to make sure we can get through that pesky Final 5 round. Because that's when everypony is going to start thinking much more individually, and we gotta make sure that change in mindset doesn't get us taken out.
What are your thoughts on all that?

My second vote expires after F6 as well, so that round is where we are going to make the #bigmove. I 100% agree that this vote has to be either Granny or DJ here, and then we can take out the other next round with our combined items. The only thing that leaves me mildly concerned is that Pear might make his mad dash to the end with many, many challenge wins, which might appeal to the jury. Still he's not on the table right now, so that's not a big deal.

Rarity is taking a page from Pear's playbook and agreeing with me about something I explicitly did not say!

[Coco Pommel]

This TC is insane! Let's look at what people seem to want:

- DJ wants Rarity out. She'd accept Chrysalis as a backup plan, but would much rather see Rarity go.
- Rarity wants DJ or Granny out. She's leaning towards wanting Granny out (with Chrysalis probably influencing that line of thought a fair bit).
- Pear appearently wants to do... whatever I wind up doing! I'd love to believe this, but I have my doubts! I imagine he wants DJ and/or Soarin out really.
- Soarin hasn't gotten back to me yet, so I'm not positive what he wants. It's probably very similar to what DJ wants!

The last two are longer and more interesting, to the point where I will prematurely halt my bullet point formatting to discuss them in detail!

I asked Chrysalis what she wanted to do moving forward about a day before TC started, and the resulting conversation has been very interesting. I'm going to quote it all in a spoiler here, because the whole interaction will give context as to why I think Chrysalis is such a huge threat to win this game.

Spoiler

What do you think we should do from here?

Well, I guess the question is, what do you want to do going forward? Like, who is our for sure endgame person here? Because I think we need to sort that in order to move forward. Figuring out which people are the biggest threats we can't work around more or less. I feel like we're sort of agreed re Granny being a social threat, but what do you think about everypony else?

It seems as though we have a choice here. Rarity seems to still be concerned with DJ/Soarin short-term from what she's telling me, and I'd say that's probably what Pear wants in this position too. DJ wants Pear out, and it doesn't sound like he's making that much of a secret. I imagine Soarin is in the same boat.
Rarity seems happy with the two of us, and she might be willing to have us at the end (though I suspect she'd want Pear to round out that Final 4). Equally, DJ and Soarin don't seem to have many options at the moment, and we don't seem to be at the front of their minds when it comes to who to target.

Do you have any strong feelings either way? Sorry, I know this was less an answer to the things you asked and more just a bunch of unfiltered thoughts tangentially related to the questions, but I'm struggling to figure out for myself what the best play would be from here. Knowing where your head is at on this will probably help me sort my own thoughts!

I don't think DJ and Soarin are close except out of necessity. Like I think the way this merge has played out has forced them to have to be, not because they want to be. I think DJ just wants somepony she knows isn't a vote in her favour there anymore, which makes sense. I think Soarin is more of a as long as it isn't him place.

I'm not actually sure what she wants at the end exactly, she hasn't exactly made that the most clear so I'm not sure. But I like to think she's in with us. I do rather like DJ if I'm being honest. Soarin hasn't made the same kind of impression, ya know?

I guess I'm less about which duo or group but rather I like x people, so I want to do things with them. And I like Rarity, I like DJ. Pear I like but I feel wary about lately, Granny I also like but she's far too social for it to be safe to like her more than I do, and Soarin is sure a guy who is here. Does that help?

I had the impression that DJ and Soarin were both big fans of each other, honestly. But I could be wrong! What makes you think they're not as close as they let on? If we're talking on a personal level, there are things I really like about both of them! It's easier to talk to DJ, though. We had a fun chat waaay back after like Challenge 3 or something when we were grouped with Cheese Sandwich, and I've gotten good vibes from her ever since.

Your feelings match up closely with mine. I wouldn't say there's anypony here I dislike at all, but I get on particularly well with Rarity and DJ. And Granny, but yeah, #bigthreat and all.
The problem here seems to be that DJ and Rarity both don't seem to particularly like each other! I'm concerned that we might wind up locked into a vote between the two of them if we don't act fast, and it doesn't sound like that's something either of us want.

Well I mean I don't think they're not fans of each other, but I don't think they're as attached at the hip as people think, that's the impression I have from DJ anyways. Yeah, DJ is pretty easy to talk to and I kinda like that about her. Man, I heard great things about Cheese Sandwich, sad he had to medevac.

Yeah, same. I don't dislike people, but I am wary of people. I think they both think the other is going to target them, and that's why they don't like each other. I have heard whispers of people considering Rarity and I'm not exactly happy about that, I don't know if it's the time to make a big move or what exactly. Cuz our options are basically Granny and Soarin, right? In a way I kind of feel like keeping Rarity and DJ might even be a touch better for us because they are going to keep their eyes on each other but not likely us?

[close]

So Chrysalis has rather solid opinions about the other players. She really likes Rarity and DJ, and therefore she would prefer a Soarin or a Granny vote. Excellent! But in her first PM to me, she sought out my thoughts first, even though I gave the prompt. When I didn't bite, she gave me a carefully-worded response telling me who she liked in a way that would keep me happy.
Chrysalis is so skilled at safely navigating the conversational minefield. And this is why she isn't getting targeted by anypony - if she talks to everypony like this, then it's no wonder why everypony's happy with their 1-on-1 connection with her!

Anyway, I've gone off on a bit of a tangent. The point is, Chrysalis wants to target Granny or Soarin this round.


Granny and I are on the same page - we think Chrys is a big problem that will be extremely difficult to deal with if we don't do something now. Surprisingly, I think I might have had her on board with the idea of voting Pear had he not won immunity! But we both want Chrys out, and we realise that it might only be possible if we use an idol to make it happen this round.

[Coco Pommel]

Oh, and I'm generally telling most ponies I think Chrysalis is a big sleeper threat and should be voted out sooner rather than later! That way nopony will be all that surprised when I make a drastic decision to get Chrysalis out this round!

[Coco Pommel]

Getting up early in the morning for work, I should be back well before the deadline. I'm still not sure how this vote is going to shake out. But if I have a say in it, neither of us are going anywhere.
I personally think it's slightly too early to consider a move on Granny or Soarin considering what the numbers would look like in the aftermath of that. But that's just my opinion on it, and equally I get the logic behind wanting to make a move here.
When I'm back tomorrow I'll let you know if I've heard anything new and exciting!

This is my very careful attempt at trying to get DJ to make a move on Granny without expressly condoning it, so that she won't be too surprised or upset when I play an idol to negate the play!

I think I might be overplaying!

[Coco Pommel]

DJ is such a good player. She actually has me considering going to Final 4 with her. We've transitioned into very lucid talk about what we want endgame to look like. We both know that the other is a huge threat, but I genuinely think she wants to go to Final 4 with me anyway.

Here's the chat we're having right now. It's one of the most interesting conversations I've had with somepony all game.

Spoiler

I feel like whatever we do here is going to upset somepony I'd be much more scared of an angry Chrysalis surviving the round than an angry Rarity. I think there's a fair chance Chrys/Rarity/Pear already recognise that their best Final 3 might be with each other. And I don't think I'd trust a rocks situation there. (On the topic of Chrysalis potentially having items - Pinkie Pie had Boulder, and Chrysalis really strongly defended her, so I wouldn't be all that surprised if she's holding Boulder right now.)

yes, it definitely is, and I hate it. I want everypony to be happy and not hurt. I don't know if either is for sure viable, but the place where i'm at is deciding between granny and rarity. i feel like if i want to go to the end with you then i need something i can point to as a time where i did something for just me, but as you say, it's a dangerous gamble and maybe incredibly stupid to do now.

For what it's worth, I think you're playing an amazing game and that we'll go fairly even at FTC at this point regardless of how the rest of this game plays out. I think our main competitors left are Chrysalis and Granny, and I think if they both went next in that order then we'd be in a really good place for either of us to wind up winning this game.

Thank you. I think the problem I might have is that nopony but you knows that I've been playing a pretty good game, because I've done too good a job of hiding it.

I've been thinking Soarin could easily run away with it too, but maybe I have more equity against him than I was imagining.

I think the big advantage you have over Soarin is that he has constantly been the scapegoat vote, yet you seem to have better connections than him across the board. Much earlier in the game I was worried about Soarin being a huge sleeper threat, but I've gone off that opinion. Chrysalis is the new Soarin!

I'm lowkey here for an eventual Final 4 of you/me/Soarin/Rarity. I'd say you/me/Soarin/Pear but I know how much you'd hate that idea

To clarify on that last bit: I think that Final 4 does a lot to ensure that one of us wins the game. Chrys and Granny are both a bit problematic in that regard.

[close]

[Coco Pommel]

This vote is ridiculous!!! But what I'm hearing is that everypony is falling onto Chrysalis. Chrys apparently told DJ that Granny was throwing DJ's name out, and Granny and I are doing everything we can to convince DJ that it's just Chrys trying to make a Granny vote happen.

[Coco Pommel]

I still don't think I'm particularly likely to win this game. Final Five could be tough at this rate, and even if I get to FTC, it will probably be a struggle to convince people like Pinkie, Starlight, Derpy and Chrysalis to vote for me.

But right now, I'm really happy with this game, whatever might happen. I had fun tonight! DJ and I had some honest and fascinating conversation! Granny and I got to plot throughout the TC and accomplished something at the end of it all! Rarity has been an absolute delight, and while we are butting heads about what we want in the game, I enjoy our conversations so much! Soarin and I keep finding ways we're eerily similar, and I think I've found a kindred spirit! And Pear and I got to *double-high-five* about a mutual victory!!!

Tonight reminded me what I love about this game. Even if I go on to lose, I'll be thrilled for anypony left who manages to pull off the victory.

[Suri Polomare]

Aww. Well, that's nice to hear. Assuming everything goes your way here, what's your ideal f3? Viable pitches to the jury at this point? Ultimately, what's the goal?

[Coco Pommel]

Right now my goal is to let Rarity and Pear have exactly what they want. Pear has suggested that we aim for that Final 3, and Rarity and I have talked about that being our ideal FTC. I'm aiming for a Final 3 with Pear and Rarity, but it won't be the end of the world if I can't arrange that specific FTC! There's a certain appeal to a Final Three with Rarity and Soarin, too - I think I'm more likely to get Pear's vote than Soarin's.

I'm still working out what exactly I would want to say to the jury if I make it to the end. It depends on what they want, really! The things I'm proud of in my game might not be the things the jury is looking for. I'd like to write a fairly short opening speech, if possible - no ridiculously long play-by-plays that only two jurors are going to read. I'm going to say something that comes from the heart!

[Coco Pommel]

Soarin conversation

[close]

Granny conversation

[close]

Pet theory: Granny and Soarin have a deal to go to the end with each other. I could totally see it.

[Coco Pommel]

DJ wants either Granny or Pear out here. Granny and Pear both want DJ out. Rarity hasn't committed to anything yet, but she'll probably tend towards wanting DJ out too.

It's heartbreaking to vote for DJ here, but I think it's the best play as well. She has the challenge advantage next round, and if she makes it through next round she's got a really high chance of making it to FTC. I think she's played an incredible game and will have this jury's favour. I also think DJ is one of the jury votes I'm most likely to receive if I make it to the end myself.

There's always the chance that DJ has the Crystal Empire idol, in which case Granny's the next most likely vote. Part of me hopes she does have it, although it'd be awful facing the aftermath of this TC with DJ still around.

[Coco Pommel]

Oh, DJ's about to get on a plane. Damnnnn that's bad timing. I feel pretty bad now. >_<

[Coco Pommel]

Rarity, you've made this game such an amazing time for me. I have so much respect for you. I know you're not feeling great about your game right now, but I hope you look back and see my post in early merge about how you're a sleeper threat and realise that you've played so much better than you're giving yourself credit for.

[Coco Pommel]

Rarity and I have been chatting a lot in the last 2-3 hours. She was considering voting for Pear here with DJ and Soarin. (While this move would boost her own game, I think it does a lot more to make DJ and Soarin look really solid, especially DJ.) But she's been really put off by how Soarin in particular has been trying to aggressively control the vote and push it onto Granny.

We've had #realtalk and we've reaffirmed that we want each other at the end. She's feeling down about her chances of winning. I think she's played a fantastic game. But I understand why she's down - I have been in the same place several times throughout this game.

I believe I've made a really good friend in Rarity. If I get nothing else out of this game, I'm glad I got that.

[Coco Pommel]

Meanwhile, Soarin hasn't PMed me in three hours. He's been trying to aggressively flip Rarity all night instead!
DJ has been getting her hands dirty trying to convince Rarity too. I'm still scared she's going to have an idol here!

[Coco Pommel]

Rarity wants to vote out Soarin next if he doesn't have immunity. I was leaning voting Granny next, but I think Rarity's right on Soarin being the better vote the more I think about it. He's been strong in challenges and he always beats me at Onitama! Granny is a much bigger threat to win at the end imo, but she hasn't performed all that well in challenges and I don't know if she's played a single game of Onitama.

Rarity's reasons seem to be more about not wanting Soarin to make it to FTC. Granny and I have been good friends to her, and Soarin really put her off last round. I don't know all the details of how their conversation went yesterday, and I'm not going to press for them. I hope everypony's alright, though.

[Coco Pommel]

Hey Coco, just a heads up, Soarin has sent me pretty big wall of text about how you were allied to him and a whole bunch of other stuff. He's convinced you're going to win this game and is already wanting to target you now. I don't really care about any of it, he's been ignoring me for the past TCs so I don't have any reason to flip on you.

Just wanted to let you know that he's probably doing the same to the others.

I don't really care about any other Alliance you had, what matters is that you've had my back almost the entire game and if the jury thinks you played a better game than I did, I'm perfectly happy with that. I'll let you know if Rarity or Granny try to get me to flip, but I don't think they will.

Let's finish this together! 

Respect to Pear for not taking Soarin's bait! I think his best chance of winning is arguing from a place of confidence in his own game. If he truly believes he has a case worth arguing in front of this jury, he shouldn't need to adjust his plans. I could see him planning for an FTC with me and Granny actually and hoping that we've upset the jury enough that Pear would win by being the least offensive option.

I don't think Rarity or Granny will flip. Flipping in response to a massive wall by Soarin just makes him look so much better, and he's evidently good at challenges like we've all already established. I'm only super worried if Soarin wins immunity. Even then I don't think I'm 110% screwed.

[Coco Pommel]

Oh my god I get to write a torchwalk for this game. I'm so happy

[Flurry Heart]

Congratulations on winning penultimate immunity challenge.

Which Disney park are you going to?

[Coco Pommel]

Magic Kingdom, of course! Specifically to see the castle fireworks night show.

[Coco Pommel]

Soarin, you've forgotten Rule 1. I just want to chat to you. I was having a lot of fun with that!

[Coco Pommel]

I get that Soarin feels he needs to do whatever he can to win this game. But he seems to be doing it at the cost of several people's enjoyment of the game, and that's the point that I feel it crosses the line.

[Coco Pommel]

Also it sounds like Soarin is tryin’ to target me. I wanted to at least hear him out and listen to him but at this point mah vote is set

This sounds like Granny was actually considering voting for somepony other than Soarin (probably Rarity?) if he had actually pitched it to her. I went into F6 thinking Soarin was probably going to be at F4 no matter what happened, and I was considering voting Granny this round up to a certain point.

Soarin has gotten into his head about needing to play optimally and secure the 'right' endgame, to the point that he has actively taken steps to secure his place on the jury instead of at FTC.

You can tell Rarity and Pear that they aren't playing to win all you want, I guess. But you can't say they haven't taken the steps they've needed to take to survive!

[Coco Pommel]

It just sucks so much. I was so close to making it to the end. When Rainbow was being voted out I knew I had to take a shot at you sooner or later. But then you told me Rainbow was gunning after me so  I put those plans aside. I thought it’d be too risky to save you until F5 but DJ told me that Chrysalis had an idol nullifier. I don’t know if it died with Chrysalis or if she gave it to Rarity but just decided not to use it or whatever. It’s like ever since Derpy was booted it started a domino effect and everypony that could or would stand up to you was slowly nicked off. Or maybe that’s just how I saw it. I made a ton of mistakes this game, and as it turns out leaving you until F5 was the biggest one of all. I’m not sure if the vote would’ve even worked, but yeah that was definitely the nail in my coffin.

This game has been such a whirlwind of emotions for me. When I first signed up for this I didn’t even know if I was up for playing another Survivor game. But then I ended up meeting a bunch of fantastic ponies. Fluttershy became my new best friend, and when we swapped into Sugarcube we bonded really well with Rainbow and Rarity too. And the next swap after I watched in real time as my friends turned on each other. I was absolutely heartbroken and confused. It was the first time I cried during a Survivor game. I never got far enough in a survivor game to experience a backstab so brutal, and I didn’t expect it to happen so early. I found solace in DJ, a pony from Fillydelphia who I mostly brushed aside prior, and Applejack, a newbie who I neglected back in my last tribe but whom I slowly grew to love and adore. She was taken out pre-merge too sadly, but DJ stuck around and we bonded through the next two swaps.

I was stuck in Golden Oak Library with DJ and two Carousels I couldn’t care less about. And then I met Flim & Flam, whom I really bonded with on our time there. We decided a form an alliance between all three of us, which carried into merge. We had the funnest group PM back in that first TC. We constantly leaked stuff that ponies have been telling us and talk out strategy and just try to make sense of all the Pinkie drama that was unraveling. That fell apart fairly quickly sadly, but I slowly grew closer to Derpy, whom I originally wanted to take out if we ever had a tribal there. The three of us had a pseudo-allaince, though Derpy never talked to DJ about it. I let the votes stay split because I thought for sure she was staying, but I was dead wrong. I was backstabbed once again, by the same two ponies nonetheless. I decided once and for all I was done with Rainbow, and my anger fueled me and made me passionate about the game for a while. But after it was all said and done I wondered if it ended up being the right move for me. I kind of just stopped playing after that and lost a lot of drive to do anything, and that ended up being my downfall. I made a lot of moves I shouldn’t have, backed down when I should’ve pushed harder.

And what’s crazy is that it almost worked out even after all that. After all the allies I’ve lost and the mistakes I’ve made there was still hope I could win this game, but sadly that didn’t end up happening. I thought it would be so poetic if I came back from all my hardships and ended up winning this game for all the allies I’ve lost over the game, but it just didn’t work out for me. I’ve never experienced a game like this before. It’s crazy how many ponies I’ve grown to love that I’ve initially despised and vice versa. There’s been so many ups and downs through this game, and it was amazing to experience it all with such a great cast. I never expected to make it this far in a Survivor game. I always figured it should’ve been me who left instead of Fluttershy because she would’ve made it so much farther than me. This game has sucked up so much of my time and energy, but at the same time it’s been such a wonderful experience. I’ve learned a lot playing this game and will probably learn a lot more once I start diving into confessionals and all, and hopefully I’ll make it even farther next time.

I guess now that I’m not gunning against you I can properly root for you. Before Fluttershy was booted she told me she’d love to see me win this game. I couldn’t fulfill that sadly, but I gave it my all and fought until the very end. Now I’ll give my blessing to you to win this game. You’ve played such a fantastic game and it’s surreal realizing how much dominance you had over the game. You have an amazing case to make come FTC and deserve to win this more than anypony. It was great getting to play and hang out with you, and hopefully next time it’ll be me in your shoes.

Aw Soarin.
You've put a lot into this game. I love just how similar we are - I see so much of myself in you, both in how you play the game and just who you are as a person (from what you've said to me, at least).

I hope you've truly enjoyed this game at the end of the day. We've had good times and bad times, but I wish nothing but the best for you.

[Coco Pommel]

Also, I called it ages ago - I knew that Soarin guy was going to be the biggest thorn in my side.

[Princess Luna]

Congratulations for making it past the voting phase! As you head into the last part of the game I just have a few questions left for you cutieponies.

1: Who are you hoping wins the Final Immunity Challenge if it isn't you? I assume you're rooting for yourself first obviously.
2: Who do you think would pick you to come to the Final 3 with them if they won?
3: Who do you hope loses the Fire-Making Challenge?

[Coco Pommel]

1: Who are you hoping wins the Final Immunity Challenge if it isn't you? I assume you're rooting for yourself first obviously.

I would most like Rarity to win the FIC if I can't. She could use the boost to her confidence, and I'd be interested in seeing what choice she would make there!

2: Who do you think would pick you to come to the Final 3 with them if they won?

After Soarin's thorough attempt at painting me as the obvious threat to win, I don't believe Granny or Pear would pick me to go to the Final Three with them (though I could be wrong on Pear!). Rarity has said she wants to take me to Final Three. That doesn't necessarily mean she will take me, but I think she's torn. I have told her I wouldn't blame her for picking Pear over me. If I had to bet on it... I would say that none of these three will take me to the end. But I wouldn't count the possibility out completely.

3: Who do you hope loses the Fire-Making Challenge?

Between these three, I am hoping Granny is the final member of the jury. As much as I would love to believe that I'm the biggest threat left based on what Soarin said tonight, I don't think I'm a shoe-in at all. Granny is still the biggest jury threat in my book, and as much as I would love to sit next to her at the end, I would rather have her on the jury.

[Princess Luna]

Oh ya I forgot to ask, if you win who'll you take?

[Coco Pommel]

I'm taking Rarity if I win, for a few reasons. Mostly because I want to.

[Coco Pommel]

Rarity won! I'm so proud of her. She wasn't confident she could win a challenge, and she smashed this one!

This is probably the most interesting outcome out of the four possible challenge winners. Rarity told me that she wanted to take me a couple of rounds ago. But I've made it clear that she has no obligation to stand by what she said there. I imagine this is rather difficult for her. I don't think pressuring her to pick me will help at all or make anypony happy, so I'm just going to hope she decides she wants me with her!

everypony in this Final Four is being so nice and respectful. I'm scared of what the jury might look like in contrast. >_<

[Coco Pommel]

I can't blame her. <3

[Coco Pommel]

The only real pitch that I would make in favour of taking me would come from a place of it giving us the best odds of one of us walking out of this with a victory. If we both make it to the end, I believe one of us is going to win over either Pear or Granny on the basis of our alliance 'winning'. And with how Soarin built me up as a big threat last round, Granny taking me out in the final challenge might gain her Soarin's vote and any other juror who might hold his values.
But those are just my thoughts on it!

I've put some thought into it, and honestly, there's an argument to be made that Rarity's best chance of winning this game is to take me and try to convince the jury that she should win over me. Sure, Soarin's going to vote me, but there are votes like Pinkie, Derpy and Chrys that are much harder for me to secure than her.

[Coco Pommel]

This feels like a fitting climax to the game. Granny's played a great game and I am proud to have her as my Final Boss.