I appreciate the players eliminating in alphabetical order to help me not have to reorder.
Derpy is the player that is trying to meddle the most in other tribe's votes. Derpy is losing the focus here. In a way, Derpy is both playing too hard and too slow. Derpy hasn't adjusted to the flow of the game with that last phase. Derpy was starting to be out of the loop and was saved by the swap and never having to go to tribal. Instead of trying to gain new social connections, Derpy solidified what she already had, which would be great in a normal situation if she was part of an impending majority alliance. However, that's not the case. Derpy took stock in what she had and assumed incorrectly. And now Derpy is acting from a place of power when she shouldn't. Derpy seemed to change after Daddy died and things haven't been the same since. Derpy could be the new Trixie and play chaos, and if Derpy somehow manages to last more than 2 tribals, this could be very interesting.
Starlight tried to throw the challenge, and that would have been fun. Again, Starlight is playing similarly to Derpy. Starlight is believing that there will be an anti-Apple alliance. Starlight, however, manages to get on people's good sides just by being pretty cool. Starlight needs to really just be open minded at the merge and utilize the relationships created during last phase into this merge. If anypony's going to make this game go in a different pathway than where it seems to be headed, it's likely going to be because of Starlight.
Flim Flam has benefitted most the most from this swap, from certain doom to building more allies. Flim Flam however is just being Flim Flam. I think everytime Flim Flam gains allies, half of it is Flim Flam knows how to manage information dissemination really well, half of it is Flim Flam is capitalizing on not being shady like Starlight/Derpy or Queen/Flutter. In other words, Flim is the anti-Trixie. Flim Flam can now be a true swing vote with Buried gone as well. Flim has the opportunity to make magic in the first tribal of the merge, and I cannot wait to see what happens next. If Flim goes all in witih Soarin/DJ, this is a huge swing vote alliance. If Flim rejoins with Pear, then Flim becomes more of a number for a larger alliance and will hide in the shadows.
Coco earned immunity and went from next vote out to playing a precarious precipice of doom. Coco now has a fake alliance and I wonder if Coco is going to reach out to DJ/Soarin or if Coco is going to try to rebuild with past Apples and see how things go. If Coco burns the bridge with Pinkie/Queen/Rarity, this could be interesting then Coco could be the lighting rod and Coco's going to need to play in a different way than Coco has intended. Coco wanted to UTR until later, but Coco might now have to be in the limelight and I don't know what will happen then.
DJ/Soarin naturally came together and it's friendship, it's magic, it's beautiful. They're peaking at the right time, people are going to want to connect with them. Their styles are well suited for this merge, and they're in the right position. The best part for the duo is that while it was not intentional, it seems that Soarin took more of the initiative to set things up instead of DJ. Soarin was in the better position to do so just because of the losses he's experienced. Too much from DJ and then DJ becomes seen as a power player and becomes somepony to take out. Instead Starlight/Derpy don't know of the underground alliance made.
Granny wasn't really in danger. Buried somehow became a threat because of the double vote and that was a remnant from last vote. Buried being the vote was the wrong move. Granny's more of a social threat and continues to have connections that she will barter in the future. I do not think Rainbow will benefit from this move. I do think it benefits Pear though. Pear is in amazing position because Pear has strong connections and has done very little to throw anypony under the bus. Rainbow, instead, has done this thoroughly. Rainbow is in a bad position at merge here because everypony thinks Flutter was sacrificed by Rainbow, instead of Rarity. Additionally, Rainbow has been seen more of a ringleader. Good for now though, just because Rainbow is probably going to be in the majority just because of the allies still alive. Rainbow is seen as a decision maker, and also has an idol clue. Rainbow will be the huge merge target, but because of having enough allies will survive until everypony realizes that Rainbow has too big of a resume and needs to be taken out before jury. Rainbow needs to learn to take a back seat and let Rarity go paranoid in the merge and make the moves that are necessary. If Rainbow isn't UTR in merge episode, it's going to be a huge climb to the finals.
Queen/Pinkie are very easily a strong pair. Both are connected to Rarity/Rainbow, but I don't think that they're going to connect as much at merge because Rarity and Rainbow are too well connected. If Queen and Pinkie start to realize that, they could make some damage. Queen has done well to really slow down the play and remove herself from Trixie and the Carousels. Unfortunately, she hasn't met enough people to convince them that that she's really separated from them. Right now her position there will be lower because she hasn't had the time to undo Trixie's damage. However, in the merge, I think she could easily move in the right direction...however...Pinkie has done little to really help this out. Pinkie telling Coco that she's in the outs was premature. Pinkie is playing some game, and unfortunately, we don't know the full extent. Pinkie is not in a good position because of that statement. Pinkie, if she can stand out in the merge with Rarity or Rainbow, could get back into good graces. However, if Pinkie is a bit slow and absent, I don't think Pinkie can recover. Pinkie's unfortunate weakness in the game is her not being around at key moments, her strength is her personality and her honesty. I'm glad to see that the redemption winner made the merge too without being at risk of being voted. What's interesting here is that by not having to use the redemption idol, Applejack's cutie map will continue to confuse people, even though it could easily be surmised that Pinkie has it. However, the cutie map didn't mention the limitations of idols. Starlight's is limited to 2 tribals, Pinkie's is gone, and Rainbow never got it. So idols become a spectre of a threat that isn't there. Items in this game are threatening more by their potential than their actual use.