Your confessional!

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Now we find out if it is him or me

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

I really thought Crystal would be a social threat in the merge but instead she is a non entity

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Crucial immunity win!

Extremely likely that Bobfather plays the idol this round.  There need to be three votes on them to keep them honest.  I am going to work on convincing Carmine and Viola to vote for them, with the impression that everyone will vote for Bob and Bob will almost certainly be voting Crystal or Paulie so they are safe even if there is an idol.  Meanwhile my actual allies Paulie and Crystal will need to both vote together for one of the other two.  Then we have a 3-2-1 vote and even if Bob plays the idol it is 3*-2-1 and my allies are still safe no matter where Bob votes.

But most importantly I am immune so no matter what shenanigans go down I am not going home.  If either of Vi or Carmine get cold feet about voting Bob and plunk a vote down on whoever Bob votes, we could have ourselves a 2-2 tie after a Bob idol play but with me immune we do not lose the rock draw odds and can try to leverage that into flipping the vulnerable one so they do not face a 50% rock draw.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Now there is a trio chat of me, Paulie and Viola to coordinate the hit on Bob, which conveniently doubles as an alternate plan for the long run in case Crystal proves too flaky to rely on.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Dear sweet fuck they are just all so bad at confident communication.

I absolutely think that Paulie is probably the best option here. I am thinking they are the probably a big challenge threat as well.

Absolutely probably!?! Cmon man!

I guess it would have to be him or Viola if Viola is the ally of his that we go to F4 with. I'm not really sure though.

i guess that makes things extra safe and we wouldn't even need to break a tie.

I guess maybe not really sure probably nothing is certain everything is up in the air who knows?

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Eh, I’m a little stressed about this tribal honestly. I feel like something is going on. Do you know of anything? I had your back last round, I do hope you’d have mine for this one.

Had my back, but also claimed you would play the idol and didn't.  Maybe if you had we would be on even footing here and everyone wouldn't feel like the only thing we can do is force you to play it or send you home with it in your pocket?

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Well Paulie, involving Vi in the split could very well be a mistake but if so it is your funeral so

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

As could proposing a split where your own vote is not one of the ones splitting onto someone without the idol, but I can't be in here correcting EVERY SINGLE strategic blunder without setting myself up to be final juror even more than I already have.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Realllllly opening us up to getting dunked on by Bob/Carmine/Vi still being together

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Nope, Bob is going scorched Earth threatening everyone that they do not want to vote for Bob or Carmine if they want to live.  Now we have them cornered.  Carmine leaking was the wrong move.

2-2-2 vote, if Bob does not idol we get them on the revote, if they do idol we get Carmine 3-1 on the revote.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Now if I were Bob, knowing how the vote split is likely to work out I would vote for Carmine and not play the idol.  But anticipating this possible play by Bob I am sending Carmine another message warning him of this possibility, and encouraging him to cast his own vote against Bobfather for self-preservation.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

Chances of a 4 to 2 blindside on Paulie are not zero.  I'm glad I'm the one with immunity.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

The chances of a 3-2-1 vote against Paulie, also not zero.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

The chances of a 3-2-1 vote against Paulie, also not zero.

Look at me, right but in the wrong way.  I thought it would be 3 against Paulie.

[Bill "The Butcher" Cutting]

I should not have let Paulie assign the votes in that votes split.  Sorry Paulie.