Episode 11

[Skinny Mickey]

Yes was supposed to say F4.  You're right though, they'd probably need to deadlock it and send it to a tiebreaker for Bobfather to then win.  I think in Police there was a 2-1-1 and it was controversial.

[Giacomo Siciliano]

Very weird tack to take, telling people the jury won’t respect them if they bring a goat to the end. Like, thinking the jury will admire you for bringing a threat to the end is one of the most disproved ideas there is in Survivor.

What Bill should really be doing is selling why Bobfather needs him to make the end. Ie if I’m in f3 they’ll need to vote me out. Maybe even throw in a F2 promise.

Yeah, there are ways to argue that someone who seems like a goat is actually more threatening than it seems, but this isn't it. And you're right that making an argument that they need each other to actually make it to the end is a more convincing argument, at least to me. It's an easier sell because it doesn't rely on altering the other person's perceptions. And Bobfather is the kind of person who imo is extremely committed to their perceptions of the game and unlikely to be willing to change them.

The main problem for them working together, apart from their apparent dislike of one another, is that Bobfather and Bill also see each other as one another's biggest challenge threats, so if either of them thinks that their odds of being beaten by the other in the F3 challenge are greater than their odds of losing the challenge to the other two at 3, then it  does make sense to vote the other one out. So it arguably could make sense to gamble on winning the final challenge, especially since Crystal and Carmine have been fairly mediocre at challenges thus far. Bobfather especially I think is extremely confident in her challenge ability.

I don't like it because I don't like leaving things up to chance, but I think there are rational arguments for why it might make sense.

And of course, the other problem is that while Bobfather and Bill seem incapable of getting on the same page, they also don't seem to realize that Carmine and Crystal very much are. I don't think a 2-1-1 is likely next round because both Carmine and Crystal seem to recognize that they are each other's best bets, and as long as that's the case, they are unlikely to vote separately. But even so, in a 2-2 I'd definitely give the advantage to Bobfather and Bill just based on their challenge records thus far.

[Brown Eyes]

Why would F4 tie 2-2? Why would Bob/Bill not vote each other out?

[Skinny Mickey]

Why would F4 tie 2-2? Why would Bob/Bill not vote each other out?

That was originally about if Bill wins immunity. So he’s not an option and Bob is then needed to stop Bill at F3, but even if Bob convinces someone, whoever Bob switches the vote to will probably be voting against Bob and with Bill. 2-2.

It might also be about the hypothetical situation where Bill pledges himself as a shield for Bob and promises to bring Bob f2? Unlikely Bob takes that deal instead of just icing Bill when the shot is there. Crystal/Carmine may not be taking Bob to F2 by choice but can they win an immunity?

[Chameleon]

i hope carmine or crystal randomly win immunity so there's a chance of an interesting tribal

[Don Corneo]

And with that Bill The Butcher moves on to the final 3.

[Giacomo Siciliano]

I'm happy for Bill! Bobfather probably lost the game by voting for Viola last round, though who knows, maybe she would have beaten him too.

I actually do think it might make sense for Bill to vote for Crystal here, but I'm not sure if it's going to happen. Most likely Bill goes home in third regardless of what he does, and he might see Bobfather as too big a challenge threat to risk taking.

[Giacomo Siciliano]

Oh wait we're in the wrong thread I think

[Skinny Mickey]

I'm happy for Bill! Bobfather probably lost the game by voting for Viola last round, though who knows, maybe she would have beaten him too.

She seemed better than Crystal/Carmine at challenges but still yeah, Bill has been showing in comps lately and if they'd just voted Viola from the start it'd be one thing but the way it ended up going, combined with Bill taking this immunity, makes for a pretty big blunder.

[Skinny Mickey]

I actually do think it might make sense for Bill to vote for Crystal here, but I'm not sure if it's going to happen. Most likely Bill goes home in third regardless of what he does, and he might see Bobfather as too big a challenge threat to risk taking.

Why would it make sense? Doesn't he need immunity in F3 to advance, and isn't Bobfather the toughest challenge contender?

This is the scenario where it might make sense for one of Carmine/Crystal to stand by Bobfather and protect him as a weapon to use against Bill F3!

[Don Corneo]

Or Bill & Bobfather put down the knives and go to the end with each other and duke it out to see who takes it rather than let Crystal & Carmine just...be the f2 if one of them botches it.

[Lefty Lincolnshire]

edit: why do we keep replying in this thread