Shell Game (Night 3)

[morph the cat]

I have reasons to think both Brian and Cakez are scum. I was torn about which to vote, but Brian's Cakez vote resolved that.

Brian's vote doesn't really feel bussy to me, but maybe? Watching the votes move around since Ceph's last VC has been disturbing.

I liked Ydra making the Cakez wagon go back to top wagon. I disliked Dannflor coming off the wagon, irrelevant of why those votes happened.

The Gypyx votes are distracting. I don't think Gypyx has been nearly as straight up scummy looking as Brian and Cakez.

I'm not huge on vc analysis, and especially avoid reading into vcs without flips

But, I feel like this section of day 1 is going to be interesting when there is at least one flip in that trio.

This is giving me Yggdrasil flashbacks to when scum were trying to save Flea.

[Brian Skies]

Brian Skies talked about the hood for a bit but never voted.

This is untrue. I voted for STD.

[Hermit Crab]

I would be totally fine nuking Cakez

[Klick]

I tried showing my work in the moment as I was noticing things and got absolutely bored out of my mind. I am happy to try to describe how I came about reading people the way I read them to the best of my ability, but the only way I'm getting to a place where I viably care about this game and have something worthwhile to say about it is if I value obtaining a more solid overall perspective for now. I know this kind of runs counter to what I said before, but I just want to have fun in a Mafia game lmao.

---

I think my old reads were hot garbage so far. I think particularly my Pooky and morph townreads were quite lazy and I don't immediately see them on a second read-through. This is where I'm at from quite early on

TOWN

Cat Scratch Fever
Hermit Crab

PROBABLY TOWN

Dannflor
Oblivion
Firebagel
Shello and Goodbye

LEANING TOWN

ActionDan
marcistar
Gypyx
Lukewarm

LEFT

PookyTheMagicalBear
morph the cat
Firebringer
Brian Skies
Dunnstral
Spiffeh
Save The Dragons
Sunflower
SirCakez
Bingle
PenguinPower

[Brian Skies]

I would be totally fine nuking Cakez

What makes you feel so strongly about this?

[Brian Skies]

random thing but

I feel like I probably shouldn't be town reading oblivion

Why not?

[Sunflower]

idle thought that someone who initially pushed that it was best to lim within the dethy hood but then let that opinion fall away as consensus settled on being willing to look elsewhere is probably more likely to be scum who wants the time triggered benefit

not necessarily someone whose mind changed but someone who is ignoring their prior principles

idk who this applies to if anyone and im not planning to research rn

[Dannflor]

random thing but

I feel like I probably shouldn't be town reading oblivion

Why not?

i think oblivion has been consistently putting out surface-towny content but I don't really feel like it has deeply engaged in the game yet like a townie

I don't get the sense there is something it really cares about?


like even its most recent 2698... i don't really feel like oblivion cares about its marci town read, i feel like it's doing busy work

[Oblivion]

random thing but

I feel like I probably shouldn't be town reading oblivion

Why not?

i think oblivion has been consistently putting out surface-towny content but I don't really feel like it has deeply engaged in the game yet like a townie

I don't get the sense there is something it really cares about?


like even its most recent 2698... i don't really feel like oblivion cares about its marci town read, i feel like it's doing busy work

Did you miss the part where it has fallen ill? Perhaps you've only read the last 30 pages or something, because it cares deeply about its solve, just not when it is running to the bathroom in pain every few hours.

[Oblivion]

It was trying very hard not to leverage that into a game relevant item but it's literally just wanting to heal back to health and then re-engage, while trying to remain connected with a game that has every ability to blow up on posting while it is gone.

[Dannflor]

I hope you feel better soon

[Oblivion]

Also, it finds it incredibly weird that you think it doesn't care about its marci town read when it already has lingering frustrations with that slot and yet has popped in with a desire not to see that slot live BECAUSE it feels that slot is town.

[Oblivion]

Like, what part of it taking the most of its current energy it has to come in and be like "This sudden surge onto Marci feels wrong" makes you think it doesn't care if its townread dies.

That's a wild take.

[Spiffeh]

I reread up to page 65. FYI I will largely be MIA after this post until Sunday (beyond some potential high-posting tonight, stay tuned!) but wanted to give you all something to mull over while I'm gone.

Caveat for the asterisked* players: I remember liking some posts while skimming more recent pages that I will delve into fully when I'm back and can finish rereading.

Town: {Hermit Crab, Dunnstral, marcistar, Lukewarm, morph the cat, Pooky}
Townlean: {ActionDan/experience, Oblivion, Klick, Firebringer, Cat Scratch Fever}
Null: {Gypyx, PenguinPower, SirCakez, Firebagel, STD}
Scumlean: {Bingle, Shello and Goodbye*, Dannflor*}
Scum: {Sunflower, Brian Skies}

Random thoughts:
Gypyx was demoted because she was not nearly as hard on me as I recall on reread. She has held me as a consistent scum read throughout the game but she mentions being not-confident in her reads multiple times to where she could be intentionally playing into it so she doesn't have to confront me in a way I don't think she'd have a problem doing as Town.

Dannflor's reaction to the dethy-hood reveal is the scummiest of people active at that time imo. It was the first breakthrough moment of the game for me and helped solidify a lot of town reads, so his two posts below feel off and come from a wildly different mindset, like he's bitter that a large aspect of the game was broken open and people are town-telling all over the place?

anyone outside the hood and not exceedingly bored right now is scum

let me know when you guys have solved the game

Bingle's entrance pinged me. I haven't reached his interaction with Pooky in my reread yet but I remember not feeling great about that either.

I think it was Pooky who mentioned that Sunflower's posts look like they are being made for an audience and I feel the exact same way. They haven't really recovered for me since my TOP NOTCH case on them early on. I sense that a lot of their discussion surrounding the neighborhood is being done because they know they should have thoughts and feelings about it.

Also, please humor me while I discuss mechanics I know nothing about and let me know if you think I'm off base/conf-biasing: Sunflower crumbing their role is scummy. It took like 20 pages of the main thread for the participants of the neighborhood to realize it was a dethy, which leads me to believe that it wasn't made explicitly clear in their role PMs. However, I suspect Ceph would have clued in the assumed lone scum in the hood about it to some degree so they are not caught immediately in the event the hood mass claims. My question is, why does Town crumb that role at all? As scum with knowledge of the dethy, crumbing would be advantageous because it could be something to point to later to say "look I really do have that role I crumbed it right here!" But I don't think Town gains anything by crumbing their role as cop inventor, even with the implication of potentially not being sane.

I am happy with the Brian wagon. I find town!Brian to be more adversarial and not hesitant to go against the grain, but lots of his opinions feel safe and conforming to the general game state here which is what's bothered me since his entrance. morph basically had to pry Brian's thoughts out of him, and I don't find it characteristic of town!Brian to have to coax his thoughts out of him.

I am townreading a lot of people at this juncture and happy with the slots receiving most of the pressure so it is safe to leave this game in all of your capable hands until I make my triumphant return!

[Oblivion]

Can someone explain to it why people are suddenly swarming on Marci? From it's view nothing has changed from the reasons that made her town before?

Aside from Marci, where's your head at wrt the current vc?

It can't make heads or tails of the way in which Cakez and Morph interacted. It is as if they are speaking their own language and it is just a spectator to it. The length of time in response for a player who is high indicates they had privileged information about a hydra head that is also part of some cabal that they all belong to?

That said, it hasn't felt a strong town presence from Cakez, and isn't going to stand in the way of that death. It thinks there are better targets, and it is coming to a decision on where it wants its vote to land today, but if Cakez was the eventual ending it won't think it will be a waste in terms of information or potential scum flip equity.

[Dannflor]

Like, what part of it taking the most of its current energy it has to come in and be like "This sudden surge onto Marci feels wrong" makes you think it doesn't care if its townread dies.

That's a wild take.

It’s just a read on the tone of your poat

I understand you hold a town read and probably feel a need to say something about that

It felt to me like the tone of your post had less urgency than it would if you were town with deeply held conviction in the read. It felt like a post you were obligated to make because of your town!marci position.

I didn’t realize you were sick and maybe some of what I perceive as muted energy is actually that instead of being AI, I dunno

[Lukewarm]

I am happy to try to describe how I came about reading people the way I read them to the best of my ability

I am curious about my own placement, seeing as how I was bottom 3 the last time you made a list

[Sunflower]

i crumbed bc i thought maybe it would be good for whoever received the invention to know it came from me so then they could like idk signal back at me some sort of result or something without either of us having to claim

i didn't really have any clue how to use the role or what it was useful for im pretty bad at weird roles, and so i figured at a minimum it couldn't hurt to crumb

[Oblivion]

Like, what part of it taking the most of its current energy it has to come in and be like "This sudden surge onto Marci feels wrong" makes you think it doesn't care if its townread dies.

That's a wild take.

It’s just a read on the tone of your poat

I understand you hold a town read and probably feel a need to say something about that

It felt to me like the tone of your post had less urgency than it would if you were town with deeply held conviction in the read. It felt like a post you were obligated to make because of your town!marci position.

I didn’t realize you were sick and maybe some of what I perceive as muted energy is actually that instead of being AI, I dunno

Let it tell you exactly where its head was at.

It was 3 am. It was on drugs to assist with pain. It was having pain issues, but decided to check into its games so as not to fall behind. It finished up in the first game it is in, then moved to this game. It noticed how many new pages it had to read. It resolved to check the most recent 5 pages to see current trends vs where its head was at. It saw a growing shift onto Marci. It decided that it wanted to stand up against that, but it couldn't be certain there wasn't some monumental shifting thing since when it had last been engaged.

So, it asked specifically "why were players mobbing Marci, given she was town from prior things and that hadn't seemed to have changed?"

This opened up players to respond to it with reasons FOR a change based on its prior read AND come in opposition of the push if nothing new HAD occured, while also allowing it to sort of engage with the game on only the level it had energy for.

Now, admittedly, much of its brain while high thoughts on that were kind of, uh... less sophisticated? It was essentially that just "wow it needs to know why the fuck people suddenly are going on its strongest town read that's not fit" But it can be sophisticated and high, it thinks? or it tries

[Sunflower]

Dannflor's reaction to the dethy-hood reveal is the scummiest of people active at that time imo. It was the first breakthrough moment of the game for me and helped solidify a lot of town reads, so his two posts below feel off and come from a wildly different mindset, like he's bitter that a large aspect of the game was broken open and people are town-telling all over the place?

i think this read kinda makes sense coming from someone who actually believes 1924 but i think 1924 is pretty naive and severely underestimating how easy it is for scum to blend in there (and also how they will be incredibly motivated to want to, way more than town are imo, because it's a golden opportunity to appear uninformed)

i don't get why you think scum would openly display that mindset though. like that would have to be an active choice for scum!dann to make. posts don't just happen on accident. why would he do that?

[Dannflor]

Thanks Oblivion I will take that into consideration

[Dannflor]

my grumpiness came from feeling I didn’t really have a place to get involved

Initially because it was happening behind closed doors and then because it turned into a mechanical discussion that i am not qualified to weigh in on, and there were several other slots in the game likely to be town that could do all that work anyway

could i have tried harder? yes definitely but i enjoyed being grumpy

[Brian Skies]

Spoiler:

VC 1.1

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to banish.

VC 1.2

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to return to sender.

VC 1.3

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to exile.

VC 1.4

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to yeet.

VC 1.5

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to eliminate.

VC 1.6

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to remove.

VC 1.7

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to fire a player into the sun.

VC 1.8

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to burn at the stake.

VC 1.9

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to obliterate.

VC 1.10

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to grind into a fine paste.

Has anyone else been noticing this?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: sir cakez

[marcistar]

Spoiler:

VC 1.1

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to banish.

VC 1.2

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to return to sender.

VC 1.3

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to exile.

VC 1.4

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to yeet.

VC 1.5

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to eliminate.

VC 1.6

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to remove.

VC 1.7

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to fire a player into the sun.

VC 1.8

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to burn at the stake.

VC 1.9

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to obliterate.

VC 1.10

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to grind into a fine paste.

Has anyone else been noticing this?

I did not notice that!

I personally want to be yeeted if i die this game wbu