btw I interpret the win conditions as saying that if 1 smuggler is voted out and the other fails to guess the Tomboy Daughter, town wins, is that correct?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
In post 8, Gamma Emerald wrote:
btw I interpret the win conditions as saying that if 1 smuggler is voted out and the other fails to guess the Tomboy Daughter, town wins, is that correct?
>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game
Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.
Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.
I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way
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"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
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It seems reasonable, but there is a chance (albeit very small) that this could result in scum finding out who the daughter is. Specifically if say everyone happens to choose Linen and the Port Authority also chooses Linen. Only the Tomboy Daughter and maybe scum depending on where they selected will be off the list.
1/64 chance of 5 Merchants randomly ending up on the same one of Linen/Copper, yes. In this case the inspection choice doesn't matter because scum either sees a full shipment or an empty one.
She/Her - limited access on nights and weekends
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
In post 10, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
>Leash everyone in game to 2 products
>leave the third product for the Tomboy Daughter to ship
>Town individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to ship
>Port Authority individually and randomly chooses which of the 2 leashed products to inspect
>Expected 2.5 town per product: (10 players total -2 for PRs -2 for scum -1 for D1 elimination)/2 = 2.5
>Note that if scum are eliminated D1 we move straight to their guessing game
Scenario 1: The shipment is free of tea. 2 smugglers are off shipment amongst the other (expected) 6.5 players, and scum has a 1/3.5 chance of guessing the Tomboy Daughter if we mislim on D2 from amongst the expected 6.5.
Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.
I think this produces good expected results without risking revealing the TD in any way
Does this account for TD not doing a shipment?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
the -2 for PRs is the TD and the PA. Basically this assumes we eliminate a Merchant on D1 because otherwise we pretty quickly either win or lose depending on if we hit scum on D1 or if we hit the TD on D1
She/Her - limited access on nights and weekends
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
Scenario 2: The shipment contains tea.
>1 scum on the shipment means 1/3.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are still 1/3.5 here (3.5 on shipment means 5.5 off, one of which is scum and one of which may be mislimmed on D2.
>2 scum on the shipment means 2/4.5 players are scum on the shipment. The odds of finding the TD for scum are the same as in scenario 1.
I think this is the most likely scenario, and more specifically that there would be 1 scum on the shipment. I feel like the smugglers would basically have to split across linen/copper. Choosing one or hiding on wheat means potentially clearing everyone that chooses whichever one they don't choose. And assuming the merchants are split decently enough, they still have the task of guessing the TD from a decent pool.
The biggest benefits of this are:
By designating Wheat for the TD we can prevent the TD from accidentally being revealed during a shipment.
By designating Linen and Copper for everyone else and not discussing what we will ship in thread, scum have no way of trying to discern which player's shipments were not checked by the PA, which could lead scum to getting clues as to who the TD is.
This just hides the TD in the best way.
She/Her - limited access on nights and weekends
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
Also we only need to catch 1 scum to win so if they split up there is no wifom as to whether there was 1 or 2 scum on the inspected shipment, like there would be if this was the normal wincon of eliminating
all
threats. We just have to eliminate on-shipment if it contains tea and off-shipment if it doesn't.
She/Her - limited access on nights and weekends
"No ssbm is not grudging me. She's one of my favorites on the website, and i wanna say vice versa." - Transcend
The day senpai noticed me^
Hello! Tis nice to finally have work again after that
horrible
business with the HMS Mutiny... This one sees we already have a gameplan on how to deal our little smuggler problem, ey? And you, Gamma! How've you been after the Mutiny?
VOTE: SirCakez
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