Newbie 2115 Mafia PT

[AurorusVox]

Nah I’ll be posting constantly

Cycling my votes through the player list for inane reasons

[usesPython]

Actually I just realized there's a pretty big hole in my ELO plan: an AV/patch scumteam can only believe Bella is FN if I was rolecopped n2, otherwise if Kawaii is rolecopped they know they're FN and if Bella was rolecopped they know Bella is VT

[AurorusVox]

This is why I’d stick to just pushing patch.

It’s feasible that I’d have rolecopped you if you were town since you could be the fn claiming to be visited by the fn but I don’t think that’s a play I’d have made as my last roll of the dice knowing I was scum going down today

[AurorusVox]

Little things that we miss can end up making us look scummier

[AurorusVox]

It’s up to you my man if you can still argue it but the suspicion you’ll draw from KK and kk’s n2 target needs to be outweighed if you go down that route

[AurorusVox]

*not my man, sorry!

[usesPython]

It’s up to you my man if you can still argue it but the suspicion you’ll draw from KK and kk’s n2 target needs to be outweighed if you go down that route

Yeah new plan:

1. Ask for clarification from patch and Kawaii about their pod progression
2. Make a The Chart 2^TM for the mech that's relevant in 3p ELO
3. NK Kawaii N3 for a Python/Bella/Patch endgame while dismissing any concerns of "why this endgame specifically" from either side by pointing out that Kowah was confirmed town after the pod flip and Kawaii was either rolecop PoE'd with AV's n2 rolecop results or just straight up rolecopped N2 or Bella is scum and Kawaii FN'd them

[usesPython]

Because in that endgame I can probably swing a patch vote from Bella and just hammer it

[AurorusVox]

Let’s see. Assuming python town. If FN doesn’t claim who they visited, this is the potential night action lay:

N1
FN visits python
Av rolecops kowah

N2
Kowah is obv getting NK’d
Av rolecops {KK or pod/bella - the other is scum} (python made it fairly obvious they weren’t FN)
FN visits {bella/pod}

If av rolecops KK then scum know who fn is for n3 kill
If av rolecops pod/bella, then scum know they are vt (the other is scum, hence POE reveals kawaii is fn)

Either way, KK is outed as FN, regardless of whether they visit scum or not (50/50 chance)

Now that’s maybe another reason to suspect Patch because scum wanted rolecop to survive to n2 to figure out who fn was before 3p elo

[AurorusVox]

Bella or patch could be scum visited by KK as well don’t forget

[usesPython]

Drafting this up rn to post tomorrow:



Seeing as there's a decent chance that no one in 3p ELO is going to be good at mech I drafted this over N2 and I'm posting this now in case I get NK'd.

Spoiler: Known night actions at this point with mechanically confirmed alignments colored in

N1:

Powerofdeath

tracks

AurorusVox

Friendly Neighbor

visits usesPython/patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

AurorusVox

rolecops

Kowahbunga

AurorusVox

kills

Deltabreedy

N2:

Friendly Neighbor

visits patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

AurorusVox

rolecops

???

AurorusVox/Mafia Goon

kills

Kowahbunga

N3:

Friendly Neighbor

visits patchwork/Bellaphant/KawaiiKame

Mafia Goon

kills

???

Given that

Kowahbunga

is confirmed

town

because they got rolecopped by

AurorusVox

and

AurorusVox

is confirmed

Rolecop

because he got tracked by

Powerofdeath

, we can assume the following:

Spoiler: 1. By 3p ELO, the Friendly Neighbor will have visited everyone assuming they survive that long

Given that by N2 all

townies

knew

Kowahbunga

was

town

due to knowing that

Powerofdeath

was

Tracker

and

AurorusVox

rolecoped

Kowahbunga

, this leaves the following playerlist outside of

Kowahbunga

and

AurorusVox

:

patchwork
Bellaphant
KawaiiKame
usesPython

Since the

Friendly Neighbor

has N2 and N3 to visit people, as long as they visit every night they are guaranteed to have been mod-confirmed by 3p ELO. Furthermore, since

scum

can't take advantage of knowing who the

Friendly Neighbor

is if they find out by being visited N3, it is optimal for the

Friendly Neighbor

to visit N3 as well, in case an FN'd person dies and the other person they visited N1/N2 is

Mafia Goon

who fakeclaims

Friendly Neighbor

Spoiler: 2. Scum have a 66% chance of correctly guessing who the Friendly Neighbor is assuming they weren't visited N1/N2

Given that

scum

know

Kowahbunga

is

Vanilla Townie

due to rolecopping them, this leaves the following playerlist outside of

Kowahbunga

and

AurorusVox

:
patchwork
Bellaphant
KawaiiKame
usesPython

In the case where scum don't believe I can be

Friendly Neighbor

:
One person is

Mafia Goon

, another gets rolecopped.
If the person rolecopped is

Friendly Neighbor

, then scum obviously know who the

Friendly Neighbor

is
If the person rolecopped is

Vanilla Townie

, that means scum assume the last person in the list is

Friendly Neighbor

Writing out the probability space: scum have a (2/3 chance of rolecopping VT * 1/2 chance of guessing incorrectly on if I am

Friendly Neighbor

= 1/3) 33% chance of not hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

, in other words a (1 - 1/3 = 2/3) 66% chance of hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

In the case where scum believe I can be

Friendly Neighbor

:
One person is

Mafia Goon

, another gets rolecopped.
If the person rolecopped is

Friendly Neighbor

, then scum obviously know who the

Friendly Neighbor

is
If the person rolecopped is

Vanilla Townie

, that means scum have a 50% chance of randomly guessing the

Friendly Neighbor

Writing out the probability space: scum have a (2/3 chance of rolecopping VT * 1/2 chance of guessing the other VT = 1/3) 33% chance of not hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

, in other words a (1 - 1/3 = 2/3) 66% chance of hitting the

Friendly Neighbor

[AurorusVox]

Can I ask why you’re including all four possible FN visits n1?

[AurorusVox]

Are you still allowing for a world in which you were potentially claiming FN d2?

[usesPython]

Are you still allowing for a world in which you were potentially claiming FN d2?

EV wise for VT!Python it's better to leave the possibility of being FN open instead of outright claiming VT, since at that point it means that the chance of FN dying by ELO goes from 66% to 100%

[AurorusVox]

Yup yup

Isn’t removing yourself from n2 grouping kinda making it clear you were visited tho?

Or are you explicitly saying you were either visited or ARE the FN and that’s why you’re not in the n2 pool either way

[usesPython]

Since I confirmed the existence of an FN d2, it implies I'm either FN or was FN'd n1. In either case there's no reason for me to be FN'd n2 onwards

[AurorusVox]

Ya ya makes sense

[AurorusVox]

We’re getting close to the thread reopening. I’m excited! I really think I might survive today. Maybe I should offer to tell them who my partner is if they don’t lim me today

/s

[usesPython]

We’re getting close to the thread reopening. I’m excited! I really think I might survive today. Maybe I should offer to tell them who my partner is if they don’t lim me today

/s

Just tell them your partner is Nexus, I'm sure they'll believe you and lim them first

[AurorusVox]

I’ll try to make all my posts read “I’m scum” in some format ha

[AurorusVox]

I might push you and your fake claiming friendly neighbour buddy lol

[AurorusVox]

And pretend that pod lied about his track ha

[AurorusVox]

No one will believe me but hey gotta keep the facade up

[usesPython]

I see you're already crumbing lol

[usesPython]

Imagine if someone accidentally voted for a townie