Mini 642: Bodyguard 7: (Game Over)

[bird1111]

Alive, bold unconfirmed:
CallMeLiam
Alabaska J, replacing hohum
killa seven, replacing Slaine Hayes
BridgesAndBaloons
TheSweatpantsNinja
TDC
jonathantan86

Dead: No one

Backup Mod: Pokerface

Status:
Game Over, see page 20 for details

Rules:
0. This is a game. Have fun. Don’t let things get personal.
1. The game will start with a Day Start once all confirms are in.
2. During Day, you may vote for one player at a time. Votes must be bold or they will not be counted. Unvoting is optional.
3. Whenever a player has more than half of the people alive voting for him/her, that player will be lynched, and his or her role will be revealed, and Night will begin.
4. If discussion lags or Day goes on for too long, a deadline may be set, most likely a retractable deadline, but if I feel it is necessary it will be non-retractable. At deadline, if there are 8 or more people, a half majority will suffice, if there are 7 or less, than a full majority is needed to lynch.
5. Do not talk outside the thread unless your role allows it.
6. If you’re dead, you get one ‘bah’ post with no game-related content.
7. If you have any question, complaint, or comment, PM me.
8. Confirm in thread.
9. Feel free to correct me if I make a mistake, but be nice about it.
10. I will try my best to get a vote count near or at the top of every page or at least every few days.
11. If you do not post for 72 hours or if a player requests I do so, I will prod you by PM, and then if you still do not post, you may be replaced or prodded again. Absences that are posted in thread, noted in your sig and/or posted in VLA are exceptions to this rule, though if I feel it is necessary, I might temporarily replace you.
12. Red is the offical mod color, no one but me may post in it, and if someone other than me edits it, the red will be edited out and they will be warned.
13. The setup and roles were 100% randomized.
14. If I have to prod someone a third time in a game day, they will be replaced instead unless one of the prods was when they were V/LA, which do not count. This is reset at the end of every game day and for anyone who replaces in.
15. The number of prods will be kept track of in the front post. Number of stars by a person's name equals the number of times they have been prodded. If the next time they would be prodded they will be replaced instead, their name will be italicized.
16. If you are modkilled for any reason that is not a mod mistake, you will be turned into a Neutral Survivor, and therefore lose. The town will be told what your role before being turned into a neutral survivor.
17. I reserve the right to edit these rules as I see fit.


Setup:
2 Mafia
1 Cop (Sane)
1 Bodyguard
3 Townies

Role PM's:
Two people received:
You are Mafia with (XXX), each night you may discuss the game, and also send me the name of a player. That player will die. You may discuss during the confirmation stage. You win when the number of mafia is the same as the number of pro-town people.

Three people received:
You are a Townie, you have nothing but your vote so put it to good use. You win when all Mafia are dead.

One person received:
You are a Cop, each night you may send me the name of a player. I will tell you whether or not that player is innocent. You win when all the Mafia are dead.

One person received:
You are a Bodyguard, each night you may send me the name of a player. If the Mafia try to kill that player, they will survive and you will die in their place. You win when all the Mafia are dead.

[bird1111]

All Role PM's out. Confirm by PM.

[bird1111]

Everyone has confirmed, so it is day 1. With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

[TDC]

vote: Slaine

[CallMeLiam]

vote: jonathantan86

Numbers in your screen name eh?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

vote: CallMeLiam

This is the first game I haven't replaced into. Just so you know.

[Slaine Hayes]

OMGUS vote: TDC

[jonathantan86]

Hi everyone.

Random

vote: TheSweatpantsNinja

CallMeLiam:

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Bandwagon!

Vote TDC.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

After doing a bunch of possibility trees (or whatever else you want to call them), I have concluded that if the cop and the bodyguard survive to Day 2

they should ABSOLUTELY CLAIM

If we lynched a scum day 1, then we automatically win if both the cop and bodyguard claim.

If we lynched a townie day 1, then having both claim improves our chances of winning. We would automatically be at LYLO, and even if the scum counter-claim, we still improves our chances rather than just straight up voting. Also, if we lynch correctly day 2 when both cop and bodyguard claim, then we automatically win.

I will type out my reasonings if you guys need me to.
Anyway, the most important thing is that if we lynch scum day 1 we automatically win if neither the bodyguard or cop is NKed and they both claim.
We also improve our chances if both cop and bodyguard make it to day 2 and they claim.

Because of all this, I suggest that, unless the cop is forced to claim,

the bodyguard should not guard anyone on N1

or unless the bodyguard is extremely sure they know who the cop is.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

My above post only works if both the cop and bodyguard survive. It's the best case scenario for town, but not extremely likely.

There is one reason I don't want to explain my logic. It's that I went into every possible scenario (including fake-claims), and I don't want to let scum know what is the best move for them to make. Of course, anybody here could figure out if they applied enough effort, so I'm sure scum will (or have already) done what I've done.

However, I would like to take a vote to see who wants me to reveal all my reasonings and stuff.

[CallMeLiam]

I will type out my reasonings if you guys need me to.

Please.

[jonathantan86]

Mod: If the Bodyguard successfully "takes the hit" for someone else, will the mafia's original target be mentioned?

(I.e. will there be a message to the effect of "The mafia targetted X but he/she was guarded by Y who took the hit. Y was killed by the mafia."?)

No. Also, you won't be able to distinguish a Bodyguard who was killed by the mafia from a Bodyguard who took the hit from someone else.

[TDC]

After doing a bunch of possibility trees (or whatever else you want to call them), I have concluded that if the cop and the bodyguard survive to Day 2

they should ABSOLUTELY CLAIM

[..]

Because of all this, I suggest that, unless the cop is forced to claim,

the bodyguard should not guard anyone on N1

or unless the bodyguard is extremely sure they know who the cop is.

I agree with both these statements.
I've also considered D1 Mass Claim, but that's only 55% Town Win, so doesn't seem worth it.

If the Bodyguard protects N1 he has a much higher chance to protect a townie (and possibly die in their place) than to protect the cop (and save him), hence he should only protect if he knows who the Cop is.

However, I would like to take a vote to see who wants me to reveal all my reasonings and stuff.

I think it's a waste of time to discuss our D2 strategy today, when we don't even know who we'll enter D2. I'm fine with you not further elaborating.

[TDC]

who -> how

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I did some more logic to figure out that if we lynch a mafia day 1, then the cop and/or bodyguard should claim the next day even if the other one is dead. It raises our chances of winning to at least 50%. It doesn't matter if they are both alive, actually. (of course it helps). Also realize that the percentages I worked out don't take into account scum-hunting and cop results over n1.

I think it's a waste of time to discuss our D2 strategy today, when we don't even know who we'll enter D2.

I disagree. I think that

because

"we don't even know how we'll enter D2," it's

not

"'a waste of time to discuss our D2 strategy today."

If I am NKed or lynched today, then all my work won't be shown. It's definitely not a waste of time. The question is whether scum will figure it out by themselves or not. If we think they will, then there's no harm in me revealing all my work.

jonathantan86
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes
TheSweatpantsNinja
TDC = no

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Bridgesandbaloons has the right of it. This was true even in the California setup, where I worked out a similar "cop should claim day 2" thing. And then was NKed before I had a chance to reveal it. Having the bodyguard is just cake on top of that.

That said, I'm indifferent to you explaining your reasoning.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

That said, I'm indifferent to you explaining your reasoning.

So do you think scum will figure it all by themselves or that they won't? The only reason to withhold is because it pretty much tells scum what to do day 2.

I'm posting alot because my other games are at night right now. Rereading games is far less interesting then starting other ones, so I'm kind of procrastinating by posting in this one a lot.

Also, after thinking for a while, I personally think that the town can definitely figure out what their best move is Day 2 after the claims, while scum may not. So I'm voting no on revealing my reasoning.

jonathantan86 = seems to have completely ignored my post
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes
TheSweatpantsNinja = doesn't care
TDC = no
BridgesAndBaloons = no

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

So do you think scum will figure it all by themselves or that they won't? The only reason to withhold is because it pretty much tells scum what to do day 2.

I tend to assume that the other players in the game are basically competent, so yeah, they can probably figure it out. But I also don't think its necessary to talk about it now, as it doesn't really affect what we're doing now.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I tend to assume that the other players in the game are basically competent, so yeah, they can probably figure it out.

If you think that, then me revealing my reasonings would be the most pro-town thing. Why then, did you say you didn't care either way?
Wouldn't a townie want the most pro-town thing to happen?

But I also don't think its necessary to talk about it now, as it doesn't really affect what we're doing now.

This is where I disagree. It's better than random voting in my opinion.
It absolutely affects what we're doing now. Sure, of course I don't want to discuss day 2 for that long. I'm guessing we'll be done talking about it after

page

2. However, seeing people's reactions to the idea is very informative.
Also, I need to make sure everyone understands that the bodyguard or cop should claim day 2 unless a townie and one of them are killed.

Also, some people (CML right now) don't understand my reasonings. I would want to make sure everyone believes what I'm saying is the best action for the town to do in the circumstances I described.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

If you think that, then me revealing my reasonings would be the most pro-town thing. Why then, did you say you didn't care either way?

Because, assuming that other people, especially once presented with the idea, could figure it out, they wouldn't need it explained to them. Not that it would be a bad idea. Hence my indifference.

This is where I disagree. It's better than random voting in my opinion.
It absolutely affects what we're doing now. Sure, of course I don't want to discuss day 2 for that long. I'm guessing we'll be done talking about it after page 2. However, seeing people's reactions to the idea is very informative.

Ah, well, I suppose considering it as an alternative to random voting, it is preferable. I hadn't really been thinking about it like that.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

assuming that other people, especially once presented with the idea, could figure it out, they wouldn't need it explained to them

I will type out my reasonings if you guys need me to.

Please.

Obviously someone needs it explained to them.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Then explain it. I do not think indifferent means what you think it means.

[jonathantan86]

jonathantan86 = seems to have completely ignored my post

Sorry...I was waiting for clarification from the mod before making my decision. So, yes, I think you should reveal it but not yet. At least wait for everyone to chime in with their thoughts.

hohum has not posted yet in this thread. (It's not that long since the start of the game though.)

[bird1111]

Bumping the vote count onto the next page.